Peace Through Strength: Your Regular Reminder to Get Strong Physically, Mentally and Financially
I’ve recently taken to watching Korean and Japanese movies on my many flights. Korean movies about their fight for independence against a vicious & repressive Imperial Japan during the turn of the 20th century like “Assassin” or “The Battle: Roar of Victory.” And basically any Japanese samurai movie. I highly recommend “The Pass: Last Days of the Samurai”. These are all Incredibly well written action movies.
Watching these movies I get a sense of unease as it's a reminder of a scarier time. That chaos and violence that can appear anytime and at any moment. Savages & barbarians that can come over the mountain and disrupt your life brutally as we have seen with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel.
Strength is strength. We’ve gotten used to peace & prosperity. And many of us have gotten complacent. Or worse, adopting self-damaging ideology like Wokeism that makes us give up our strengths out of guilt. We fear exercising power but our many enemies do not. If we continue down this path we will be at the mercy of others. Reliant on their good will and benevolence. And this is the worst situation any person or country can be in.
The reality is that we are entering an ugly new world for a while. As a history major and global macro watcher, I see that we are leaving a Unipolar Hegemony, the Western world order run by the United States and the almighty US Dollar. We are going towards one of multipolar sort, of many new strong players like China/ Russia/ Iran, as well as India, Turkey, Poland, Nigeria, Indonesia among the top of the list.
Many new players are showing up. Each with their own interests. A works with no permanent allies, only permanent interests. It’s going to be chaotic. And we let it happen because of incompetence, corruption, decadence, arrogance and complacency in the West. This is what kills empires, countries and companies throughout history.
But it’s not too late. We need to understand that good intentions need to be backed up with power and strength. Power and strength is neutral and can be used for good or evil. Our peace, values, freedoms and way of life must be defended against both internal and external enemies.
As a country, we need to rebuild our industrial base, our education and repair the cultural/economic divide in our society. Drive out wokeism, DEI & ESG garbage from our government, schools and Companies and be more pragmatic.
At the foundational level, fix your brain. Meditate. Fix your media diet, stop watching the news both Fox and CNN and MSNBC are garbage. They are both wings of the same bird filling your brain with useless drivel. Manage your social media intake better. And for heaven’s sake and your own sanity, please stop scrolling through IG or TikTok. These dopamine hits wreck your ability to focus. Go read some books on history and business or watch documentaries. Learn to think critically and for yourself. Get mentors that could be virtual or historical or real.
But before you get financially fit, you have to get physically fit. Go to the gym, fix your diet and have less processed foods. Fix your sleep and train in some fighting arts. There is no excuse to be out of shape or obese unless you have an injury or medical condition. Otherwise, you will become a burden to your family and society. A dependent on others.
At the individual level, every man needs to get their financial act together. Make money and fight the hedonic treadmill. Stop being a consumer and become a producer. Build and Make something. Sell something. The tools exist and there are plenty of problems out there to solve. The Solopreneurship wave is here. This is your path away from dependency on others.
Do this and you can unite your thought, sight and action. Live focused lives like the Japanese samurai did. Singular in purpose. As Lord Kawai said in “The Pass”: “Our strength of will is the only thing that can save this domain.”
Find other people who are into self improvement and build your tribe. It’s gonna be ugly and you don’t want to be a lone wolf in this mess. But a tribe will only accept you if you bring something to the table and are able to hold your own.
The point is we are fast running out of time. It will be chaotic at Global level, country level and city level. We are already seeing the rise of crime and break down of civil order in many cities in Europe as well as the blue states in the USA due to the stupid policies being implemented in these places.
My question to you is do you want to be part of the solution or part of the problem? If you prepare yourself, you may even begin to thrive in this new world order. This is a time that we will see the rise of many warlords and caudillos aka strongmen, as they are called in Latin America. Not the world I want but it’s the world we are in. One that requires perpetual readiness.
Take responsibility for your own life and destiny NOW before it’s too late. Lord Kawai said: “From now on, we rely on ourselves! As a modest domain, only self reliance, self respect and belief in our own strength will allow us to survive! Do your best and let Heaven take care of the rest.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 5th, 2024
“No act of kindness, no matter how small, is ever wasted.” ― Aesop
"Impressive people seem to have boundless belief in themselves. How else would they have grand visions, raise that kind of money, or honestly get up in the morning? The truth is that the most impressive people are anxious overachievers. They must prove something — to themselves, their parents, or the world."
2. "To add some clarity to where I stand on investing in AI - I think the opportunity is massive. But unlike other types of technology that came before, it won’t all start with startups and expand up market. There will be opportunities everywhere, but I think pre-seed and seed AI companies that look like the pre-seed/seed companies of the past decade, will not be nearly as successful.
Find business models that are more than software, because pure software will become less defensible over time. More and more I like models that bundle software with something physical: sensors, services, a needed human touch, etc.
Consider companies that can benefit from strong ecosystems, particularly in GTM. The SaaS wave of the last 15 years was weak on channel partnerships as an early GTM focus. I think that will change. If you have a lot of channel partners or other integration and ecosystem partners who benefit from your success, there are many people who are incentivized to make sure you aren’t replaced.
Look to apply AI in industries that have not had to defend much against the innovator’s dilemma. This could mean bigger more vertically integrated business models but, in many cases I think that will be the right play."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/how-i-think-about-ai-investing-in
3. "QT removes liquidity from the system. As of March 2022, the Fed allows roughly $95 billion worth of UST and MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This causes the Fed’s balance sheet to fall, which we all know reduces dollar liquidity. However, we are not concerned about the absolute level of the Fed’s balance sheet but the pace at which it declines.
Analysts, like Joe Kalish of Ned Davis Research, expect the Fed to reduce the pace of QT by $30 billion per month at its May 1st meeting. The reduction in the pace of QT is positive for dollar liquidity as the Fed’s balance sheet rate of decline slows.
When the TGA balance rises, it removes liquidity from the system, but when it falls, it adds liquidity to the system. When the Treasury receives tax payments, the TGA balance rises. I expect the TGA balance to swell well above the current ~$750 billion level as tax payments are processed on April 15th. This is dollar liquidity negative.
Don’t forget it's an election year. Yellen’s job is to get her boss, US President Jeo Boden, reelected. That means she must do all she can to juice the stock market to make voters feel rich and ascribe this great outcome to the slow “genius” of Bidenomics. When the RRP balances finally go to zero, Yellen will spend down the TGA, releasing, most likely, an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will pump markets.
The precarious period for risky assets is April 15th to May 1st. This is when tax payments remove liquidity from the system, QT rumbles on at the current elevated pace, and Yellen has yet to start running down the TGA. After May 1st, the pace of QT declines, and Yellen gets busy cashing checks to jack up asset prices."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave
4. This was a great discussion on owning businesses, business and life philosophy and finding your mission through business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U2goTmqo3Y
5. "In 2002, Musk kick-started a new era for the city when he founded SpaceX from a modest office there. By the time SpaceX outgrew El Segundo and moved to nearby Hawthorne in 2008, Musk had cemented El Segundo as a home to top-flight engineers. Some of them—like Radiant co-founder Doug Bernauer—have stayed to start their own companies, while many others have helped form the bedrock workforce for the newest startup boom.
Within the Gundo, almost every startup hopes to turn the Defense Department or some other government entity into a customer. It was an unpopular strategy until Thiel’s Palantir and Musk’s SpaceX proved that startups could secure government contracts when competing against established giants like Raytheon and Boeing. And the increase in defense tech startups in the Gundo mirrors the broader rise in venture-backed startups working defense purposes over the few years, spurred on by SpaceX’s example, as well as rising geopolitical tensions in places including China, Ukraine and Israel. Realistically, of course, securing government contracts remains a long and potentially fruitless endeavor, which could mean many of the El Segundo startups disappear as quickly as they appeared.
Many of the founders expressed to me the feeling that America had fallen behind other countries like China, and that their work in the Gundo is helping the U.S. recapture its faded manufacturing glory. Cameron Schiller, co-founder of startup Rangeview, which uses 3-D printing to produce parts for the military, said he felt himself and the Gundo startups had a common mission.
“We had ideas and things that were very American, but they were old American. They’re not ‘Build this B2B SaaS maker software doohickey to deliver your groceries 10% faster,’” Schiller said. “We wanted to rebuild the fabric of the country.”
6. "Generally, research finds that when we’re challenged or struggle in ways that we believe we’re capable of overcoming, those struggles eventually invigorate us and lead to a sense of meaning and accomplishment.
But when confronted with struggles and challenges that we feel powerless to overcome, that’s when we get demoralized, and in extreme cases, experience trauma.
Throughout history, people erred on the side of subjecting each other to more pain. This is because most of human history fucking blew. War, famine, plagues, slavery, tyranny were the norms of the human condition, not the exception. So people were hard on their kids, hard on each other, and had little sympathy.
This changed about a hundred years ago with the rise of Freud and widespread acceptance of psychology. These days, you could argue that in some ways, we are probably too soft."
https://medium.com/@markmanson/why-growth-requires-struggle-741e59f02072
7. My buddy Alex knows the business of VC very very well. This was a great interview on what’s happening in Venture and the tech startup land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1LrSdUVO7s
8. "Our search for revenue durability. The final point, on revenue durability, is the real clincher. Everything about LLMs seems to make revenue durability more challenging than ever. As VCs, our approach has been to try to focus tightly on this question as we evaluate the current generation of AI-first/LLM-powered companies, both on the infrastructure and application layers.
LLMs and GenAI provide powerful new tools for technology vendors and customers alike. They change the playing field, but they do not change the fundamental rules of the game. Within the new (and still emerging) rules of the LLM/GenAI game, we continue to search for companies that have a path to creating significant customer value while capturing value for their shareholders."
https://medium.com/angularventures/revenue-durability-in-the-llm-world-5d655b22f07d
9. Jocko Willink is da man. So much to learn from this guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_PKYpZihqQ
10. "I’m sure that to someone in the Navy’s public relations department thinks that simply refusing to talk to reporters about these problems means that the problems have been solved. This is typical of the ostrich-like mentality that I see among a very wide variety of Americans, from Congressional staffers to tech moguls to news reporters and pundits, regarding the imminent threat of war with China. But refusing to talk about problems doesn’t make them go away; it simply makes us less prepared to deal with them.
China’s leaders, meanwhile, labor under no such comforting illusions. In addition to their massive military buildup, they are taking various other actions that might or might not entail purposeful preparation for war, but definitely have the effect of making China better-prepared should a war break out.
For example, China’s dominance of the battery and electric vehicle industries helps insulates them against a potential blockade of their oil supplies through the Straits of Malacca.
Xi has also commanded the country to improve its food self-sufficiency; since the country was 94% self-sufficient in food back in 2000, this is probably not an impossible task. That will insulate China against any possible blockade of food imports in the event of a war.
As for finance, China has been stockpiling gold and urging trading partners to do more business in yuan. That should help neuter threats of financial sanctions, like the one Janet Yellen just issued.
Again, I don’t know which of these measures represent purposeful preparation before the launching of a great-power war. But they all definitely make China better-prepared. Even as the U.S. tries its best to ignore its glaring inability to build ships and missiles and ammunition, China is shoring up its key weaknesses in fuel, food, and finance.
All of this should scare you a bit. It certainly scares me a lot. The possibility that revisionist great powers will launch a world war in order to overturn the global order is now a lot higher than it was a few years ago, and arguably even higher than one year ago. Americans need to be screaming our heads off about this, so that we can start planning for this disaster today, instead of allowing ourselves to wait and be blindsided by it. We need to be warning our friends, and telling them to warn their friends. We need to be talking about this on national TV, in the New York Times, on podcasts, and on whatever social media the CCP still doesn’t control.
Right now, what I mostly hear is a deafening, horrible silence."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-still-not-worried-enough
11. llluminating conversation.
"The 1930s are used as a more common reference to the current sanctions on Russia instead of China. We are not sanctioning China. We are only trying to prevent the acquisition of high-end chip capabilities for the sake of reducing Chinese military capabilities.
Since Japan is an oil importer, the WWII oil embargo was a serious hit to the Japanese economy. You are correct that there was a clear connection between the oil export ban and Imperial Japan’s decision to go into French Indochina and the Dutch colonies to gain access to the resources.
There was a discussion in Japan that harsh sanctions on Russia would put Russia into a corner, causing them to do something unthinkable like using a nuclear weapon. But Russia did not use a nuclear weapon, and now they are still trading oil to China, India, and elsewhere.
From a Japanese point of view, there's always a reference to the 1930s when it comes to the question of economic coercion. There is a national memory. But this argument is separate from the question of economic security. Economic security is a debate about how to prevent economic coercion from being imposed on Japan. Something that hasn't changed since the 1930s is that Japan depends heavily on imports for energy and food. We are vulnerable to economic coercion, so we need to think of the how to mitigate those risks."
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/japans-economic-security-renaissance
12. Good state of Saas in 2024 from Jason Lemkin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvS3tJFmunY
13. An excellent discussion on the basics of growth hacking from Silicon Valley. Elliot is a legend here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1cicJ3OTvg
14. "What happens if I don’t make this investment?
This explains a lot of what I’m seeing in the market. Sometimes, there’s nothing wrong with a company per se. The revenue traction is fine, the market size is interesting, and the founders are good. But the company just doesn’t feel special. If an investor were to pass on this company, it’s unlikely to be a pass they look back on with deep regret.
In my experience, most investors are unwilling to express this sentiment to founders because it’s awkward to say to someone excited about the business they’re building. Instead of saying this, they find another reason to pass on the company and move on."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/what-happens-if-i-dont-make-this
15. "Talent and funding are great, but they won’t get you anywhere if customers don’t want to buy what you’re selling. And that’s where recent economic and political tailwinds come in. Tensions with China and Russia have created pressure on our government to fund defense innovation.
Strained relations with China are also causing companies to rethink their material sourcing and manufacturing for the first time in years or decades.
Additionally, rising minimum wage laws and intensely seasonal hiring needs in sectors like agriculture are pushing many industries toward increasing automation in order to survive.
These global trends are an immense tailwind for startups focused on robotics, manufacturing, defense, energy, and many other areas."
https://www.codingvc.com/p/the-golden-age-of-deep-tech
16. Drone war shows the new face of war. We (USA) are really behind the 8 ball here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2wZctmpH9o
17. So many great mindset ideas for great success in life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWPKPAGDdpU
18. Great discussion on being an operator-investor. And the big difference in styles between Founders Fund and Khosla ventures and being an independent thinker.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7gZz2MhaPw
19. Innovation in war happens on both sides, unfortunately this is one from Russia. Guided precision heavy explosive bombs which has contributed to their advances in recent months.
20. "Services businesses are a promising next frontier. With massive market sizes- the Big 4 alone brought in $200B in revenue last year- and a relative dearth of dynamic tech talent, the ground is fertile. Historically, common wisdom has held “services businesses aren’t venture backable.” Compared to software businesses, services performed by humans tend to be low margin, hard to scale exponentially, lumpy in revenue, etc. etc. There are many cautionary tales. But change is afoot… hastened by AI, cracking open new, huge opportunities for founders brave enough to go against the tired wisdom.
We even have a beacon out there showing the way: Palantir. What started as a services business is now amongst the most highly-valued (on a multiples basis) venture-backed company in the industry. There’s much to be learned from its march to higher margins and recurring revenue. And with the rapid advancement of AI, I’d argue we’re on the verge of a Cambrian explosion of Palantirs.
Service businesses that leverage both AI and humans to deliver holistic solutions to clients are poised to outgun and outpace the services behemoths that’ve dominated for the last 50 years. Legacy providers are ripe for disruption: their business models rely on human labor and hourly billing which can be turned on its head by AI-enabled vendors.
Further, their “product” (humans) is very difficult to integrate AI into. While software incumbents are having a relatively easy time adapting to the GenAI wave, services incumbents will struggle. Founders, this is a boomtown moment to seize."
21. What a nutty story. White collar criminal sentenced to death (albeit she did apparently steal billions).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68778636.amp
22. Punching above their weight geopolitically, the Arab Gulf States: UAE & Saudi Arabia & how they are balancing the major world powers around them (ie. USA, China, Russia, India).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kzpNTx2PSc
23. Title says it all. Net net: unlearn everything you think you learned from 2019-2021 in startup land.
It was ZIRP era stupidity and most of it was wrong and irrelevant for this new leaner environment now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QMWRSlO7l0
24. Brian Singerman of Founders Fund is one of the best investors out there. Plenty to learn from this convo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBzhRVRIf2Q
25. Bit late to this. Man, Qatar is so wily. Building up their ties with Turkey, Iran & Russia and leveraging their natural gas reserves & massive Sovereign Wealth Fund to beat the Arab state blockade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyVTPcy6r0A
26. 6-8 years of man and material left? The limits of the Russian war machine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9Vtck34kRs
27. "Our fast thinking system is an incredible tool. It allows us to drive cars, compare prices, recognize friends at a distance, and play sports. But its availability makes us lazy. Why do the hard work of thinking through a problem when we can just “go with our gut”? In any decision of consequence, it’s good policy to slow down, get out of the stimulus-response cycle, and let your slow thinking catch up. That’s not to say we should disregard our gut — just don’t let it take the wheel.
Ideas are yours to play with, disassemble, shape, and apply where needed. I’ve taken the idea of “slowing down” and mixed it with atheism and stoicism to enhance my personal relationships. When my kids are disagreeable (i.e., awful), or my partner is upset/angry, I often respond as if it’s a threat to my authority or value. I reflexively escalate and get back in their face(s). I now try to disassociate. What I mean by that: I take myself out of my “self” and see someone I care about upset. Being an observer, vs. being in the line of fire, inspires different emotions."
https://www.profgalloway.com/think-slow/
28. "PMF isn’t attained permanently, but sustained over time as companies & complexities grow. As they scale, startups move up-market, expand into new geographies, add new product lines, & develop new customer acquisition motions."
https://tomtunguz.com/extreme-pmf/
29. "Tull, Helberg and the other Idaho attendees see the recent boom in defense tech as a critical bulwark against China and its ambitions. They believe the startups are producing the types of weapons and technology the U.S. needs to secure itself against the rival nation. Overall, China is becoming a topic of intensifying focus in an increasingly hawkish Washington—where dramatic debates over TikTok bans and ominous hearings about China’s military took up a noticeable part of Congress’s winter agenda.
As Tull’s ambition has risen alongside the broader growing interest in defense tech, he’s raised $1.8 billion from investors like Guggenheim Partners for his U.S. Innovative Technology fund, which also contains some of his own personal wealth. (Forbes estimates his net worth at $3 billion.) Tull isn’t stopping there. He is currently in the process of raising even more for the fund, with a goal of securing a total of $3 billion.
Tull’s rise to prominence as a top defense tech investor—and emerging GOP heavyweight—offers a stark contrast with his commercial interests and political spending of a decade ago. Back then, he was growing his film production company, Legendary Entertainment, largely through financing simply plotted blockbusters that resonated with Chinese audiences (he later sold the outfit to China’s richest person). Along the way, he directed some of his Hollywood millions to Democrats like Hillary Clinton, whose political action committees received over $1 million from Tull in 2016. (He still sometimes gives to Democrats, though at a much reduced level.)
As his transformation has occurred, Tull, once a fixture on magazine covers and red carpets, has grown intensely private, retreating to a new home base in Pittsburgh. (He wouldn’t comment for this story.) “He’s very uncomfortable with trying to run out and beat his chest in public,” said longtime friend Joe Lonsdale, a venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder.
The change may seem discordant, but Tull, 53, has in fact long displayed a chameleonlike flexibility of identity. His skill as a shape-shifter came up unprompted when I discussed Tull with Ray Mabus, former U.S. Secretary of the Navy, who described it as “his protean nature.” Added Mabus, who has known Tull for more than a decade: “He is a pretty nimble mind.”
In fact, over the years, Tull has been all these things: laundromat owner; venture capital scout; Hollywood financier; minority owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers; investor in an eclectic bunch of nondefense startups through his holding company, Tulco Holdings, including Colossal, a startup that intends to revive the woolly mammoth; weapons tycoon; and budding political power broker."
30. Love his newsletter. Contrary Ventures has a very differentiated offer in the VC business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17jjM5SUH_A
31. "The key is that there are two major categories of investors, whereby one is focused on unlimited upside, and the other is focused on a minimum return combined with downside protection. When fundraising, entrepreneurs should understand the two categories of investors and think through the pros and cons of being upside-focused or minimum return-focused."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/04/13/investors-focused-on-upside-or-minimizing-downside/
32. This is a scary forecast on the future of war and geopolitics. Basically we may be close to tipping from a Cold War into a hot war. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7CDp2JX3Kk
33. Entering a world where everyone is an investor. 2 of the smartest guys on the planet here talking about crypto, it's back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzoQU0bob0o&t=935s
34. This is a unique take from a surprising source but I certainly hope he is right that Russia will lose in Ukraine.
I wish & pray for Ukrainian victory over Russia even though it looks grim over there right now.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1779217033374089501
Enjoying the Small Things: More Japanese Wisdom
I’m pretty known for my deep love for all things Japan. I’ll literally watch and read anything about the place. One of my favorite things are samurai movies and anime series like “Rurouni Kenshin: The Wandering Swordsman.” There is a great scene when he is with his fencing master and he states what his master told him when he was young.
“Cherry trees at dusk in spring, stars in summer, full moon in fall, and snow in winter. Those things alone give alcohol taste. If it still tastes bad, that proves there is a sickness inside of you.”
This was definitely deep. But think about our own life situations, recall the numerous situations when you are having a delicious meal, all the things you were dreaming of or your favorite dishes say for Christmas or Thanksgiving.
But due to some setback at work or a fight with your spouse or kid. Or you are distracted or feeling bad, or maybe feel some guilt about something you did, the food just ends up not tasting as good as you remember. Despite looking forward to it for so long.
Our inability to let go, our inability to be fully in the present. This ruins our general happiness and it happens all the time. Our brains are one of the most powerful tools in our kit but they sometimes work against us. Actively looking for the next thing, pushing our buttons, making us dissatisfied with elements of our life. Overthinking all the time. It is a kind of sickness inside of you.
That is why you need deep focus on the present. Meditation helps a lot. Only then can we reach zen: a feeling of peace, oneness, and enlightenment. Only then can we get close to perfection. Complete pure dedication and commitment to the moment and technique.
Pushing yourself to the physical extremes. Using your will and spirit, going all in.
As one of the samurai characters said: “To vanquish you and be the mightiest of them all, I will fall to any depths of savagery.”
Short of going to war or a fight to the death, this activity gives you an appreciation of life. When we are focussed on big things and surviving. When we are safe and bored, we come up with stupid petty things to worry and trouble ourselves with. (This explains a lot of the mental illness and woke garbage in the West).
“In that moment you fear death, you find the will to live. If you sacrifice yourself to protect those you hold dear, they will grieve for you. They will not be happy. Your own life is worth as much as any other. Only when you understand the gravity of it will the ultimate technique be yours. Your life does not only belong to you.”
This illustrates what I love about Japanese culture. The embodiment of “we are all in it together” versus the extreme individualism we have in America. I think we miss out on many things when we embrace our individualistic tendencies too much. And we sadly only come together during times of tragedy and challenges. Only then do we realize we have obligations to others. We have obligations to ourselves and to society.
Strong societies are made up of strong communities. Strong communities are made up of strong families. Strong families are made up of strong individuals. It’s time to get strong because as Kenshin’s master says: “The strong survive, the weak die. Reality, plain and simple.”
And it all starts with very small things.
Lessons from “Arnold”: The Mastery of Life Part 2
There was so much to learn from the Arnold documentary and this is why I had to split this post up into 2. One of the things that you notice about Arnold Schwartnegger is his intense drive and hunger. This is something I specifically look for when I am hiring or looking for in startup founders I invest in. No surprise that I tend to see this in immigrants or children of immigrants. It’s like that old saying: “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”
He shares the traits of everyone I know who has accomplished anything in life. He was literally never satisfied.
“Everytime I won anything. I say to myself ‘Okay, What’s the next thing.’ If you are always hungry you are never really satisfied. Because Reg Park of course won 3 Mr Universe contests. Arnold has to break that record. When people think “this is too much. For me, it was definitely not enough. And then I wanted more.”
He said: “My Mind is just geared differently. It’s geared to moving forward. What is the new thing? A new challenge. A new mountain to climb.”
It’s absolutely about a driving mission which crowds out all the useless distractions we humans find ourselves with in our brains.
Arnold says:
“I mean, I’m not an expert in psychology or anything like that. All I can tell you is that when you are a person that has always a goal, that always has a mission, the less the time that you have to think about ‘How do I feel today?’ ‘Am I depressed today?’ ‘Do I feel sorry for myself’ ‘Have I become a victim?’ ‘Oh my god I feel so bad about myself.’ and all this. I don’t have time for this crap. A lot of time, it’s people didn’t work enough. If you’re busy all the time, you don’t have time to think about this stuff. Let’s just move forward. Move. Move. Move. Move.”
He is not wrong. I find many of the issues that plague modern life. People have too much time on their hands whining about how their life sucks but not doing anything about it. Or distracting themselves through video games, porn or Netflix. Or worse through alcohol and drugs.
Another big lesson from Arnold, you have to sell everything! James Cameron said of him:
“He saw half the job was performing the film, half the job was promoting the film.”
Arnold goes on to say: “You have to be involved yourself. You have to go in there and just say ‘Here’s why you should see this movie.’ You have sell everything. No matter what you do in life. You have to sell it.”
Another reason for his success is his attitude to work. Work was not just work. Work was fun.
“You have to have fun. Fun and work. Work and fun. Most people don’t know that. They worry. And they work. And they worry and they work. Where’s the fun?”
This seems to have served him well as he has incredible mental acuity and looks pretty awesome at age 75.
“I think destiny is what we make of it. You have to have the vision, and then if you follow that, I think miracles can happen. So this is exactly what my life has been about. I saw the peak of bodybuilding. I climbed that peak. Then I saw the other peak. The leading man. The movie star.
And it reminds me of this famous mountain climber, Edmund Hillary, who was the first man to ever climb Mt. Everest. The press asked him ‘what were you thinking about when you looked around and you were up on this peak.’ He said ‘I all of a sudden saw another peak far away. And I started planning my route. How do I get up there to that peak?”
“Visions were so clear and were so targeted. It was like the rifle approach. The target is in front, and I was aiming for its bulls-eye. And you just have to really be careful of that, because you can get so obsessed that you start losing sight of everything else around it.”
He finishes the documentary saying: “I hope that when I am long gone, people say that he made a difference.” I think this is something that all of us aspire to as well.
The Way of Billionaires: DOE=Distressed or Early Assets
I’m glad Tai Lopez is back online. He disappeared for a few years after being ubiquitous all over social media. He was early to using internet marketing to build a personal brand and sell educational courses.
He has gone on to much bigger things since then. Doing the private equity route, investing and taking control of all kinds of businesses, even the Wilhelmina Modeling Agency and massive offline retailer Pier 1 among others.
I like that he shares everything he has learned. But he has shared some of the wealth secrets he learned from his billionaire mentors. Billionaires are a different breed and they are tough. They are the modern day warlords who built their business empires through blood, sweat and some extreme risk. I’d even say in some cases particularly ruthless action.
But there are things to learn from them especially for all of us in the world of business. Tai says the secret is buying DOE=Distressed Assets or buying early. Most empires were started by people who bought distressed assets with cash they had. Whether it was real estate or stocks in 2009 when they were at its nadir. Or private equity like investments in online retail companies in March/April 2020. Rupert Murdoch acquired his way into a global empire in newspapers and television media. Ray Kroc bought McDonald’s burger place from the McDonald brothers and then expanded it to the ubiquitous fast food chain we all know.
The other way is investing early into assets or startups like Elon did in Tesla. Many of the present top seed venture investors in Silicon Valley did the same in 2009 well. Or the businessmen who invested in mining, energy and telecom companies in Russia and other Eastern European countries right after the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. Huge fortunes were made then.
When things looked grim and everyone else was going to cash or sitting on the sidelines. Investing when it seems most dangerous requires guts and courage that most people do not have. It requires faith and confidence in oneself.
We can all learn something even if we don’t want to become billionaires, but we can all do with more money. Money gives you optionality, freedom and resources to take care of your family, friends and community. So it’s important that we learn from the best money aggregators and capitalists out there.
A Strange Trip: 50 Circuits Around the Sun
I turned 50 years old this week. It’s so weird. I don’t feel like I’m 50. I certainly don’t act like it. I feel like I’m just getting started. Like I am just beginning to understand what’s important and how the world works.
Definitely not where I thought I would be when I got to this age. I honestly thought I’d be much further along financially. I thought I’d have all my family stuff figured out and definitely thought my path would been much smoother. I foolishly thought in my younger age that I’d have everything figured out and that I’d be riding the wave up at this point.
But as my online hero Justin Waller says:“ You can tell the size of a man by the size of his problems.”
If this is the case I think I’m probably a very big man, considering the last few weeks. Big problems with my family, problems with my investment portfolio, accounts receivables & cash flow problems personally, compounded by big challenges in my various businesses. Trouble comes in 3 or in this case 4. Nothing as devastating or catastrophic like in 2001 or 2020 for me but still feels disconcerting.
All of is massively painful yet I acknowledge due to my own miscalculations and mistakes. But pain means you are alive. And if you are alive you can do something about it.
Another more positive perspective is that this is the inevitable result of massive growth. Literally growing pains. I see this in startups. And it’s exactly the same in life. It means that we are pushing hard and to the extreme which causes the breakage. It means we are growing. Pain leads to growth. And if you are not growing, you are dying.
I remind myself as I remind my companies, just keep pushing and keep moving. It’s not over until you quit. And if you go down, you go down fighting hard. So here is to being 50 years old and having 50 more trips around the sun.
Thanks for indulging me and thanks for being a reader.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 28th, 2024
“The only antidote to mental suffering is physical pain.”--Karl Marx
"The startup adage “chips on shoulders equals chips in pockets” means that entrepreneurs with something to prove increases the chance that investing in these types of entrepreneurs results in better financial outcomes. So, the next time someone asks, “What does it take to be a successful entrepreneur and a successful angel investor?” Remember the saying: “Chips on shoulders equals chips in pockets.”
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/30/chips-on-shoulders-equals-chips-in-pockets
2. "If you suck at sales, don’t stress it.
No one is born good at everything and we all learn with life experience.
You cannot escape it. You must get more life experience.
This means you spend 30% of your time on research and 70% of your time on action."
https://lifemathmoney.com/everything-in-life-is-sales/
3. A rational take on AI, China and the growing multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikAMI8pkosE
4. Always an illuminating conversation on geopolitics and investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVFkv7fezxE
5. "In the end, I can’t easily dismiss any of the technological, political, or economic factors here. It seems like the feeling that the world broke in the early 2010s emerged from a perfect storm. Smartphones and social media arrived just in time for Americans to rage at each other over the country’s increasingly racialized politics and the built-up economic stresses released by the Great Recession.
Whether America can put itself back together after that storm, or what that new country will look like, is still an open question. Racial polarization is falling, and there are many signs that Americans are starting to turn away from identitarian conflict. Meanwhile, wages have been steadily growing again, inequality has plateaued, and middle-class wealth has recovered. And there are signs that Americans are starting to turn their backs on the most divisive social media platforms and partisan news outlets.
The real X-factor here is geopolitics. Even if America slowly knits itself back together, there will be no restoring the American-led democratic hegemony that existed before Xi and Putin. And the political weakness that we’re now experiencing as a hangover from the ruptures of the 2010s will probably make us far less nimble and decisive in terms of responding to the new global authoritarian challenge.
So when we look back on the early 2010s a decade or two from now, we may remember that this was the time the world truly broke…but for very different reasons than we thought at the time."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-did-the-world-break-in-the-early
6. Not an easy read and I don't write off the Ukrainian army yet but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the weakness of the Professional Managerial Class and the West at large.
"This outcome will also be a defeat for the current intellectual and political dominance of western thinking about the operational and strategic levels of war. Perhaps the Moroccan Staff College invites an American General every year to give series of lectures about strategy. But maybe this year’s lecturer is someone whose highest-level command was a battalion in Afghanistan twenty years ago, and who helped to plan the disastrous Ukrainian offensive of 2023. Actually, maybe not, we’ll get back to you.
Likewise, the productions of western Staff Colleges and think-tanks, which have been shown to be hopelessly lacking in insight over the last two years may not be in as great demand. Now again, this does not mean that there will be a simple and immediate replacement of western experts and publications by Russian ones—there are all sorts of practical reasons why not—but it does mean that western expertise and western experts will no longer be treated with unquestioning obeisance."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/when-the-musics-over
7. Really useful discussion on what’s happening in startup land in q4, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3eWrEBOrMw
8. "Packetized media has rapidly become the dominant form of media, although it’s important to note that dominance doesn’t mean replacement since the earlier forms of media don’t disappear; instead, as we’ve seen, these older types will be integrated into the new dominant form.
Here’s how this shift happened.
--Technological change makes a shift possible (social networking, starting in 2001, was the start of true packetization, and the mass adoption of smartphones made it available to everyone).
--A dopaminergic effect drives early adoption -- if you want to fall asleep at night, read a book; if you want to stay awake, scroll X or TikTok. This dopaminergic effect fades as our brains build up a tolerance to it.
--Repeated use of a new dominant media forcibly alters how we think and perceive reality—it actively rewires the neurons in our brains (as we saw with the mass adoption of reading during the Reformation).
This new method of thinking will inevitably force social reorganization.
In most previous cases, this social reorganization is modest (i.e., broadcast media) since the new dominant media is merely a variant of previous dominant forms."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/packetized-media
9. "Although razors are hardly the most expensive products in the store, data indicates they get stolen up to 2.5x as often as other products.
Why are razors such a hot item for thieves?
One reason: they’re a hot item for everyone."
https://thehustle.co/originals/why-thieves-love-to-steal-razors
10. "But when you begin to dig deep and look closely at your objective function, at your reward function, at the status game, at what you put meaning on and what you don't, then you gain a brand new power in life:
The ability to change.
Whenever anyone gets this power it's as if they've opened into a totally different world, as if they were caterpillars and they're now butterflies. But there is only one way to go there. You have to get there yourself. You have to peal back the layers of your own mind and ideas. You have to look closely at how you got here and where you're going. Nobody else can do this for you. Nobody else can push you or pull you or make you do it. It's up to you to open your eyes and see rather than imagining the world from behind closed eyes.
There is no way to understand it without doing the process of self-reflection and sharpening your self-awareness.
There are no expert caterpillars on the life of butterflies. There are only expert butterflies on the life of butterflies.
Do it and the world expands.
Don't do it and you're like a leaf blown around by the wind, drifting wherever life pushes you and imaging the whole time that you are the wind."
https://danieljeffries.substack.com/p/the-human-os
11. Trust and how to gain it.
https://bakadesuyo.com/2024/03/trust/
12. A good view on the future of buying software in a world of AI.
https://tomtunguz.com/ai-enabled-buyers/
13. "When we started NextView back in 2012, we often used the metaphor of the beer industry to describe the evolution of the VC business. In a nutshell, the argument was that all industries go from being a cottage industry to one that is industrialized. A few big players emerge that compete on scale and scope, much like AB Inbev in the beer industry and the megafunds in venture.
The best way to compete in this world was to pursue a craft strategy on the opposite side of the spectrum focused on small scale production of high-quality products. At the time, we pointed to Dogfish Head and Stone Brewing as folks who were pursuing this approach, similar to the OG seed investors like First Round and Baseline."
https://nextview.vc/blog/revisiting-the-craft-beer-metaphor-for-the-vc-industry/
14. James Currier is the OG and this interview was done in 2021.
He was absolutely right on everything as his deep expertise from operating and investing over 25+ years shows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmCDw98vckw
15. "As this is an election year, everything is clogged up, and the people we need to be thinking long-term cannot see past November. From both a national security and I would offer moral perspective, I do not understand any of the reasons people have for not supporting Ukraine in their fight.
Russia under her present leadership is not a nation of good intent. There is no positive outcome from her winning in Ukraine. There is nothing but benefit for her being humbled in Ukraine. We can do that without a single American soldier.
What are we doing in a macro sense to build our credibility as an ally and friend in the last few years?
Specifically, what have we done in the Pacific to effectively counter PRC courting of those nations they are not directly threatening?
This is varsity football, but we’re performing like the JV team.
…and yes, it is all connected."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/america-bad-empire-or-poor-friend
16. "The West still cannot comprehend that the war in Ukraine might ever happen to them. People also cannot process the idea that we are already in a global conflagration. This is partly because war today involves locations and technologies that are difficult or impossible to see. But, war has never been a visual zone.
Luigi Russolo, a sound performance artist from the WWI era, said, “In modern warfare, mechanical and metallic, the element of sight is almost zero. These days, bullets, fighter jets, and hypersonic weapons all fly too fast to see. War is heard, “from noise, the different calibers of grenades and shrapnel’s can be known even before they explode”.
The sound of war is what tells us where the battlefield is. The geography of that battlefield is no longer constrained by nation-state borders. It has extended to non-combatants and to locations inside Western nations. This is evident both by debilitating acoustic sounds and by the sound of silence, which now move together, making for a punctuated, perhaps syncopated story. We are in an era of acoustic/sonic warfare and silence."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/acoustic-geopolitics-unit-29155-unit
17. More of this. Constraints lead to creativity and Ukrainians were very creative and clever to begin with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYG654K1D3M
18. Learning from the best. Founders Fund is a very unique VC fund.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRTxul6PjQc&t=2573s
19. “We’re going to see 10-person companies with billion-dollar valuations pretty soon…in my little group chat with my tech CEO friends there’s this betting pool for the first year there is a one-person billion-dollar company, which would’ve been unimaginable without AI. And now [it] will happen.”
Altman’s idea is that AI tools will soon reach the point where they can replicate the entire output of human employees. Instead of needing to hire a designer, you can use GPT-6 to design for you. There will be far less need for software engineers (meh), sales staff (no one will miss them), and newsletter writers (a tragedy of Greek proportions, leaving our society barren and empty).
An ambitious founder could outsource the work they would use employees for to an army of artificial intelligence agents. Theoretically, this would allow entrepreneurs to focus on only tackling their most important competitive advantage.
To reach $100 million in ARR, founders will need to have an advantage in both taste and distribution. Taste will enable founders to have a unique insight into their customers’ problems to solve, while distribution will allow them to rapidly market their solutions. Remember, if AI agents are as powerful as Altman is predicting, someone can build an idea the instant they have it. So the only edge comes from having the quality of taste to generate the idea first and better, or in distributing it faster and more cheaply."
20. This is an instructive interview on the art of venture capital and operating in startup land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJTlXA3dWGY
21. "The Trisolarans are an impressive bunch, so it makes sense that some humans would be so dazzled that they would treat them as gods and be happy to do their bidding — including sabotaging their fellow humans. In our world, such a role is played by environmentalists and NIMBYs. These are folks who, over the past half century, have acted as Sophons in slowing tech progress.
For example: You can thank them for 1970s-era environmental regulations that make it maddeningly hard to build big projects in America, either quickly or cheaply. And you can thank them for continuing to use such regulations today.
More Sophons: Those in Hollywood who continue their public demoralization campaign about technology — AI will kill us, cancer cures will turn us into zombies — and the future.
Sorry, it wasn’t aliens or Sophons. It was us."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/what-the-3-body-problem-teaches-about
22. Mayers is an impressive person but being around the block, I wonder if it is not a curse to gain wealth and great success at a young age. Expectations get out of whack and you wonder if you can recreate that success (or worse you learn the wrong lessons).
"Building a hit app is hugely challenging, and chaos is a common feature of many or even most of the startups that set out to build them. Sunshine, which Mayer founded with Muñoz Torres a year after leaving Yahoo, has been no exception, according to interviews with employees, who all asked for anonymity to speak publicly about the company.
Mayer’s original idea had been to create simple utility apps powered by artificial intelligence. (She almost named the company Mundane AI, she told The Information last year.) In 2020, two years after the company launched under the name Lumi Labs, the pair announced the company’s first product: an app that promised to be “the world’s most advanced, intuitive contact manager,” according to The Verge.
The company raised a $20 million seed round in 2020 from a small group of investors, including Mayer. At the end of that year, it officially rebranded as Sunshine.
Despite high hopes, the contacts app has yet to take off. It was buggy at launch, duplicating contacts or introducing other errors into data fields. And it rattled some users by filling in contact information using public databases, raising privacy concerns."
https://www.platformer.news/marissa-mayer-sunshine-shine-app-design-cofounder-quits/
23. "The U.S. will not be able to stand against that juggernaut by retreating behind a fortress of tariffs and trying to become an expensive, smaller mini-China. The only way the U.S. will be able to stand against that juggernaut is to get a big gang together. We have to weld the economies of the democratic nations into a single whole, sharing supply chains and markets and technology. Only by doing this will we be able to match the incredible size and scope of the Chinese industrial machine.
The TPP would have been a first step toward creating that unified economic bastion, but we killed it. The IPEF’s trade component would have been an important step in that direction, but we killed that too. Just like the people in the legend of Pandora’s Box, we rushed to shut the lid on trade agreements when all the monsters had already escaped, and the only thing we managed to lock in the box was Hope.
We may still have time to reverse course. Perhaps if Biden wins in 2024, and the electoral pressure is off, the administration will gain the political breathing room to turn the country toward strategic trade agreements with allies. This will require some leadership from the administration, and also some attitude adjustments on the part of the American intellectual class. Yes, free trade was bad in the 2000s. But Fortress America isn’t a workable alternative. The alternative is strategic trade, and I hope we realize that in time."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-us-would-be-insane-to-go-it-alone
24. "To say that Taiwan is important to the global tech industry is like saying oxygen is important to breathing. Taiwan as a whole is responsible for making 80 to 90 percent of the world’s most advanced computer chips — ones for which there is no current substitute. Taiwan’s TSMC makes up half of that production on its own, and 90 percent of the chips TSMC makes are produced in its 12 fabrication plants — or “fabs” — on the island.
And, of course, earthquakes and volcanoes are just one threat to Taiwan’s semiconductor foundries. The better known one is just 80 miles across the Taiwan Strait, where the People’s Republic of China has made it increasingly clear that it could be willing to use military power to force reunification with what it regards as a renegade province. Should Taiwan’s chip foundries be destroyed in such a conflict, the damage to the global economy could be on par with the Great Depression."
25. Fascinating discussion on AI making the rounds. It's worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYdVzg5WE3w
26. This is why America is an unreliable ally. Its embarrassing. Curse the MAGA for their gutlessness and inhumanity. Either support Ukraine to win or broker a peace. Don't half a-s it like we seem to do everything these days.
“Ukraine’s largest single supplier of ammunition was the United States until the latest round of military assistance stalled in Congress. Representative Mike Turner of Ohio, a Republican who is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, told CBS News over the weekend that American military and intelligence officials had made it clear Ukraine could not hold out much longer.
We are at a critical juncture on the ground that is beginning to be able to impact not only the morale of the Ukrainians that are fighting but also their ability to fight,” Mr. Turner said.
On the front lines in Ukraine, they call it the “shell hunger,” a desperate shortage of munitions that is warping tactics and the types of weapons employed. It is not just the overall lack of ammunition that is so damaging but also an imbalance in the kinds on hand."
27. This is a good perspective on angel investing.
I don't agree with the investing with accelerators now as the top ones shift all the time with exception of YC. But in general as newbie this is a good view.
https://www.sanjaysays.co/p/how-to-make-money-investing-in-startups
28. This is a good state of the union for venture capital and Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8q6BdrXEn4
29. "Building a calm company has meant saying no to opportunities that don't align with our values. We've purposefully declined complicated enterprise contracts that would require us to staff up, add more compliance, and sign complicated legal contracts. We try not to commit to projects that burn us out. We've prioritized doing work that we enjoy and that brings customers value.
The world needs more indie entrepreneurs building calm businesses. We won't get more calm from publicly traded companies or the over-funded venture-backed class. It's going to come from the next crop of small, purposefully built, indie startups with healthy margins."
https://justinjackson.ca/calm-company
30. "Entrepreneurs would do well to read both the Startup Founder Survival Guide and the SaaS Growth Playbook."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/04/06/startup-founder-survival-guide-and-saas-growth-playbook/
31. Fascinating talk on the major changes in SaaS and enterprise software. So many smart investors out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mC95YDNpLPU
32. This discussion explains the great delusion in the West and why we are losing against the autocratic powers.
And also how Africa is strategic to the west and how we are losing there too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gvIECrsPkY
33. "So I'll end with this. As we rage on in The Glass-Half War, it isn't enough for the Glass Half-Full Brigade to tell exceptional stories. It isn't enough to reframe the stories of the Glass Half-Empty Annihilators. We have to seek to improve. To seek superior outcomes. To find better solutions that move progress forward for everyone.
That is how we win. We fill up the cup. The cup should be overflowing with so much optimism and excitement, that the Glass Half-Empty Annihilators no longer have a leg to stand on, and can't do anything other than stand back in awe of the progress we're making.
Fight the good fight."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-glass-half-war-empty-or-full
34. "Big Fiscal thus represents a risky bet. It’s a bet that avoiding even a small rise in unemployment at all costs is worth the risk of potentially keeping both inflation and interest rates uncomfortably high. I don’t know where the correct balance of risk lies, but I worry that progressives over-learned the lessons of the Great Recession. Unemployment isn’t the only thing that makes American voters mad.
In any case, I think that after the election, we’re likely to see increased concern about the federal deficit — no matter who wins. Even if rates do get cut, it seems unlikely they’ll soon return to the near-zero level of the 2010s. 3% rates would likely still be high enough to force uncomfortable fiscal decisions on Congress and the President, given how much debt the government has built up since the days of Bill Clinton. An Age of Austerity — or at least, unpleasant political battles over austerity — is probably on the way."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-is-the-us-doing-so-much-deficit
35. Legendary seed investor. Investing in the age of AI & how to differentiate yourself as a VC.
Lessons from “Arnold”: The Mastery of Life Part 1
There was a very rough weekend with the family during the summer and this documentary came at a good time. Arnold was a Netflix documentary that did a great job encapsulating and showing Arnold Schwartneggers rise in bodybuilding, building his real estate wealth, Hollywood movies and politics.
He is the ultimate example of a self made man, a boy from rural Austria growing up in an abusive family that ended up becoming HUGE in America in multiple realms. He married into the Kennedy family of all things. He ended up dominating in three different realms career-wise. I’d say 4 as you also need to include his real estate empire.
It showed his unrelenting drive, personality and success but also his deep failures. Many times in his own words. I highly recommend watching it as it’s not just a great story but holds many lessons for our own lives.
“My whole life I had this unusual talent that I could see things very clearly in front of me. If I can see it, then it must be achievable.The idea was to sculpt the body to your will. But it also can be used to shape your mind, to do the things that everyone calls impossible. That gives you the will and no doubt that you can make your visions, not only become a reality, but go beyond your dreams. I had a fire in the belly for more. Much, much more.”
Destined for more than a regular life where he grew up in an impoverished and very small village called Thal in Austria. He never fit in.
“Growing up, I learned “You work your ass off.”’
His father made him compete against his eldest brother all the time, even on stupid things. And I think this is part of what made him so competitive. His father told him: “Whatever you do Arnold, be useful”
Entranced by an American movie Hercules starring Reg Park who was a big muscled actor. This set him off on his path and became his blueprint for his life. It’s good to have positive models and aspirations in life
“I would be working out in my house. And there was no noise. And I could think and concentrate and visualize how I could become a bodybuilding champion. How I was going to move to America and get into movies. How I could make millions of dollars.”
This coupled with community seemed to be the key to his success. He was great at joining the right crews. First time in the community of wrestlers, body builders, men with muscles who adopted him into their clique as their kid. “I think every since then, I celebrated this camaraderie. And because I admired it so much I created it wherever I went.”
One of the big points was his willingness to move. He had to get out and be around others who are better. From Thal to Graz, then Munich, then London, to Miami and then Los Angeles, specifically Venice Beach. The Mecca of Bodybuilding. Gold’s Gym on Venice Beach was the center of action where Arnold built his community. He was great at making friends and building allies who helped him as he helped them. Community and environment matters.
As Arnold said, success is a team sport.
“The only thing that is self is kind of my motivation and my visualization and all of this stuff. There were endless amounts of people that were helping me…..don’t ever call me a self made man, because I am not.”
The Joy of A Good Night’s Rest: The Most Important Element for Health and Clear Thinking
This last summer in Taiwan was brutal. It was record breaking heat outside. And while I had air conditioning. My sleep was greatly disturbed by jet lag coming back from a business trip from Europe that was exacerbated by massive family and business issues. The consequence was not enough sleep and whatever sleep I had was plain substandard sleep. I’m normally very good with dealing with jet lag as I have a pretty good routine and have ways of coping and adjusting within a few days, week max. But this time it dragged on for over 3 weeks, even with the aid of melatonin.
And I can honestly say it showed in all aspects of my life: my home/family life and my business life. The foggy brain, the short temper and the inability to focus and concentrate or to properly deal with the setbacks that normally happen. It was pretty much a hard slog every single day.
I was able to grind through it with a dose of intense HiiT (High Intensity Training) routine, lots of meditation and cold showers and ice cold coffee. But these are coping mechanisms.
So why does sleep matter? According to the UK Mental Health Foundation:
“Sleep is an essential and involuntary process, without which we cannot function effectively. It is as essential to our bodies as eating, drinking and breathing, and is vital for maintaining good mental and physical health. Sleeping helps to repair and restore our brains, not just our bodies.
During sleep we can process information, consolidate memories, and undergo a number of maintenance processes that help us to function during the daytime.”
I normally don’t have issues with sleep. I love it. I can usually sleep anywhere, on airport benches, in flight, on trains and in the car. I think this is one of the reasons my health overall is so good because I usually sleep well.
We’ve all had the experience of having crazy and dark thoughts very late at night. But having a good sleep and waking up the next morning, will make you feel great and ready to tackle the issues troubling you.
So my point is that if you are in a bad mental state, perhaps one of the best tools in your kit is to just try getting a good night’s rest. You still obviously have to exercise and do the hard work, whatever it is when you are awake, but getting some quality sleep could be the first important step to turning things around and making your life better.
The 5 AM Club: Mornings are for World Domination
I’ve always been a night owl. It’s how I’m wired. When I am left on my own without any work, I will just naturally stay up late, writing, watching videos, or reading books and comic books. And I mean till really late like 4 am. Then I would sleep until early afternoon. I used to jokingly call this vampire mode. And I was immensely productive. Night time is when I am the most awake and alive and there is no one to bother you. It’s peaceful and you can focus.
I used to smirk or be skeptical when I saw that book by Robin Sharma called “The 5 AM Club.”
But this all changed when I joined the working world and then especially when I became a father. Between business/work, family and baby, you are not left with much time to yourself. So I had to discover early mornings, like really early mornings. A decade ago it was 6 am, now I’m doing 5 am or sometimes 4 am. It’s just as quiet and calm but you don’t feel rushed or hurried.
I can do my meditation for a full 30 minutes which has been an immense unlock to my mental state. I get to do my exercise regime and I get to read and really carefully review emails. I’ve done all the hard things early in the day.
It also helps that my business partners and many of my portfolio companies are overseas in Europe, MENA and Asia so I am able to catch them for calls. I feel like I am able to steal a march on everyone here in America with this early start. I’m almost always jetlagged from my regular flying anyway so it works out well.
Now to make this work, you have to get enough sleep. So going to bed at a not crazy hour is critical. I try to get at least 8 hours of sleep so going to bed around 8 pm is important.
But if you can’t do this, a short 30-45 minutes nap in the early afternoon is helpful. Or you can take a coffee nap. Have a coffee and then take a 20-30 minute nap. It works, you snap back alert and awake after.
So for those who are trying to get a lot done but have crazy schedules, doing the 5 AM club is a good routine. You can get so much done and free up time in the afternoon to spend time with family or read or just chill. It’s a good strategy especially if you have a day job and are trying to get your side hustle or personal business off the ground. So I am now a fully fledged member and believer of the 5 AM club. Be there or be square.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 21st, 2024
"Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it."--Pericles
"Quick cash feels good, but ultimately weakens the bottom line. In our experience, M&A activity typically occurs 5–7 years into a start-up’s lifecycle and IPOs happen in the 10–12-year range.
Data supports this observation. According to PitchBook data, the older the vintage year of a high-performing emerging fund — which means more time for portfolio companies to grow — the more capital gets distributed to investors."
2. "But, the alternative to appeasement tends to imply war, and possibly even conscription. The Young Turks today don’t want to fight. They want to build startups. They want to solve real-world problems and not be interrupted by them. Notice what the actual Turks are offering. “President Erdoğa stated that Türkiye stands ready to assume any facilitating role in returning to the negotiating table in Ukraine.” They want to know why a peace deal nearly happened last April and then somehow got scuppered. These are dark times for those who thought they’d never face any questions.
So, even if Kennedy doesn’t win, his voice has turned this into a three-way race. Perhaps it’s a narrative race. Still, it’s a real race."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/its-a-three-way-race-for-the-white
3. "I expect that over the next 24 months, we’ll see a washing out in the venture markets. This will be true both for startups and for venture firms. On the startup side, many companies will raise down rounds or not be able to raise at all; they’ll shut down. Most unicorns shouldn’t be valued at $1B+, and we’re going to see a resulting correction.
For venture firms, we’ll see the same thing. Over the past few years, we saw a boom in first-time funds. Many of these funds overextended themselves during the market froth, and they’ll struggle to raise a second or third fund. The funds that succeed will fit into one of two buckets—artisans or asset managers.
We’re seeing the same thing in venture. You’re either an artisan or you’re a scaled asset manager. Going back to the two resources that founders can allocate—labor and capital—artisans are more focused on assisting with the labor and asset managers are more focused on assisting with the capital.
Artisans focus on people; they invest capital, sure, but their value really shines in hands-on partnership around attracting and cultivating talent—making sure the right people are around the table. Asset managers are more about the money—their form of venture is less about craft than about putting dollars to work.
Naturally, the latter is a better fit for a late-stage company that has a built-out people function and is more focused on getting dollars in the door to keep the engine humming. The former is better for early-stage—the original ethos of venture capital."
https://www.digitalnative.tech/p/two-roads-diverged-the-splitting
4. "Friendship is an economic accelerant. The economist Raj Chetty found that for people from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, having wealthier friends “is the single strongest predictor of upward mobility.” Unemployed people who volunteer are 27% more likely to find work than those who do not, aided by the “social capital” (economist-speak for “friends”) they accumulate through volunteering.
Regions with greater civic engagement are more resistant to economic slowdowns, and communities to which the residents have a strong emotional attachment see higher rates of GDP growth. The flip side? The CDC estimates that loneliness costs the U.S. economy $406 billion a year — more than the combined GDP of Vermont, Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, and Rhode Island."
https://www.profgalloway.com/mammal-ai/
5. UAE as a pocket power. Geopolitical impact beyond its size through immense pragmatism & smart statecraft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Dpr8nGPkY
6. "Entrepreneurs would do well to think about the “big unlock” that makes their new venture possible. The “big unlock” makes it so that now is the time to build this next company. Sometimes it’s only a modest change that makes a startup work, but the vast majority of the time, there’s some big trend, innovation, or societal shift that creates an unlock for a wave of new startups. Find the unlock and walk through the door."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/23/whats-the-big-unlock-for-a-new-venture/
7. "So there was this general sense that this was a one-off — that we rich countries could emerge, battered and bleary-eyed, from the bunkers of the 2010s, and stumble forward with what manufacturing industries remained to us, without the fear that this would happen again. After all, if you look at historical trade competition from Japan, or Germany, or other past competitors, it seems to peak and then level off or decline over time.
Except China, in so many ways, is not like those other competitors. As you can see from the chart above, which is from a recent blog post by Brad Setser and Michael Weilandt, China’s manufacturing surplus — measured relative to the GDP of its trading partners — didn’t stop climbing after 2010. And in the last few years it has been surging again, to heights never dreamed of by Japan or Germany. Meanwhile, headlines are beginning to sound the alarm about a Second China Shock.
This new trade shock will be one of the most important economic stories of the 2020s.
So I don’t think that protectionism is a done deal. But because the Second China Shock is so much more adversarial and zero-sum than the First China Shock, I expect countries to be a lot less willing to sit back and let it happen. And I also think memory plays an important role here — current generations of policymakers, pundits, and voters have all learned the story of how Chinese competition hollowed out our manufacturing workforce and our industrial base in the 2000s, and they will not want to let history repeat.
Whatever the response ends up being, though, it seems clear that the Second China Shock will be one of the most important stories of this decade. China’s attempts to offload any and every manufactured product at cut-rate prices, even at the expense of their companies’ own profit margins and the environment, will become a defining feature of the global economy of the 2020s. We should all brace ourselves."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-decade-of-the-second-china-shock
8. "Subsea cable projects have historically been financed by a consortium of global telecommunications firms but Big Tech has jumped into the fray in the past decade to ensure internet access for its various services, per The Economist:
-GOOGLE invested in 25 cables (and owns 12 outright), with its first sea cable program going back to 2008.
-META invested in 15 cables (owns 1 outright).
-MICROSOFT partly owns 4 cable.
The importance of internet access also means that governments are very involved. There are two main companies laying the cables and their competition for contracts has become a geopolitical flashpoint.
One is based in the USA (SubCon) while the other is in China (HMN Tech). HMN was formerly “Huawei Marine Networks” and “Huawei” is — as you news hounds probably remember — the Chinese telecom and networking giant that was slapped with massive sanctions and fines by the US government in recent years."
https://www.readtrung.com/p/subsea-internet-cables-are-a-miracle
9. "The less control you have over your life, the less you're driving your own train. And countless people can spend their whole careers riding other people's trains, and that's fine. But for many people, there is a drive. An unquenchable thirst to control your own destiny. To get out from under the parameters of an established ecosystem.
Another way I had it described to me was as a pyramid. Most organizational hierarchies are structured like a pyramid. Lots of people at the bottom, a few people at the top. And a lot of people like that structure, because the bottom is capped. But that, by design, means the top is capped too.
To fully uncap the top, or in other words open up the maximum potential, you also have to open up the bottom. You have to open up the possibility that you might fail."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/driving-your-own-train
10. I really like the perspective of Slow Ventures guys. I usually find myself nodding my head a lot when I listen to them. VCs with strong opinions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9pdaOkD3sGQ
11. An interesting take, don't fully agree with all his views but do agree commodities are going to become much more important. I'm investing accordingly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeFZOQZ54Ks
12. "If you ask me what’s irresistible to fund, it’s when the genius meets the obvious, when a founder shares with you something about their industry, their expertise or their approach that you feel is unique and brilliant."
https://2lr.substack.com/p/irresistible-insights
13. Insightful view on China's internet economy and Alibaba after Jack Ma.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Up66jvibgzY
14. "But media isn’t dead, it has simply struggled to adapt to a new industry landscape. The media businesses that dominated the 1900s misunderstood the source of their competitive advantage. They thought their competitive advantage was their quality of content, and they believed that advertisers would always pay a premium to advertise on that content. But their competitive advantage wasn’t content, it was attention. When search and social stole some of that attention, ad dollars left as well."
https://www.youngmoney.co/p/media-isnt-dead-evolving
15. "When we listen to the cacophony of voices within us—venturing deep into the landscape of our parts—focus, relaxation, and intentional engagement are all necessary. To hear their stories, and witness how these parts influence the choices of our lives, we must slow down. It's in the quiet, reflective spaces that we can get curious and attune ourselves to the rich dialogue within, allowing us to discern when to press forward and when to pause, how to foster deeper presence, and consciously choose our path ahead."
https://www.wheretheroadbends.co/p/why-its-so-hard-to-slow-down
16. "The consolation is that the story of the internet is nowhere near over. It is a dynamic and constantly evolving structure. Just as high-speed fiber optics reshaped how we use the internet, forthcoming technologies may have a similarly transformative effect on the structure of our networks.
SpaceX’s Starlink is already unlocking a completely new way of providing service to millions. Its data packets, which travel to users via radio waves from low earth orbit, may soon be one of the fastest and most economical ways of delivering internet access to a majority of users on Earth. After all, the distance from LEO to the surface of the Earth is just a fraction of the length of subsea cables across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Astranis, another satellite internet service provider that parks its small sats in geostationary orbit, may deliver a similarly game-changing service for many. Internet from space may one day become a kind of common global provider. We will need to wait and see what kind of opportunities a sea change like this may unlock."
https://every.to/p/how-we-built-the-internet
17. "For the people fighting this war, burrowed in the earth and constantly fearful whenever exposed, it will be a horror, one that builds on and exceeds the WW1-style trench warfare that set the previous standard. An automated killing field fueled by the advent of inexpensive autonomous weapons, which are rapidly becoming more capable by the day.
Drones, even at the current low levels of autonomy, will turn most conventional warfare into wars of attrition. Wars of attrition (think: WW1 trench warfare) focus on physical damage (men, weapons, and materiel) to force an enemy into submission. To wage attrition effectively, the damage caused must outweigh the cost of causing it. Drones are particularly effective at this since they are far less expensive than the targets they destroy and the methods used to defend against them."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-automated-killing-fields
18. Two friends and both top tier creator entrepreneurs talking. Learned a bunch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dticDXdRuh8
19. This seems like another media hit job. While I am not condoning sleeping around, he is a fallible & imperfect man, even though he is very accomplished and has massive influence.
"A prophet must constrain his self-revelation. He must give his story a shape that ultimately tends toward inner strength, weakness overcome. For Andrew Huberman to become your teacher and mine, as he very much was for a period this fall — a period in which I diligently absorbed sun upon waking, drank no more than once a week, practiced physiological sighs in traffic, and said to myself, out loud in my living room, “I also love mechanism”; a period during which I began to think seriously, for the first time in my life, about reducing stress, and during which both my husband and my young child saw tangible benefit from repeatedly immersing themselves in frigid water; a period in which I realized that I not only liked this podcast but liked other women who liked this podcast — he must be, in some way, better than the rest of us.
Huberman sells a dream of control down to the cellular level. But something has gone wrong. In the midst of immense fame, a chasm has opened between the podcaster preaching dopaminergic restraint and a man, with newfound wealth, with access to a world unseen by most professors. The problem with a man always working on himself is that he may also be working on you."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/andrew-huberman-podcast-stanford-joe-rogan.html
20. "So while karaoke and AI represent entirely different kinds of technologies, in broad strokes, there are fascinating, and revealing, parallels between the two. The karaoke machine automated a creative process, using music created by other people. It caused a lot of fury and debate that was only resolved much later, as the technology emerged from the fringes and mainstreamed into the fabric of daily life. With AI, we are still at the “fury and debate” point. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/what-can-karaoke-teach-us-about-ai
21. The new face of war to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibja8YSWaFw
22. This is what Firestorm Labs does.
"The adoption of attritable mass has the potential to revolutionize military operations, but its realization requires overcoming internal hurdles within the Department of Defense and services. The Air Force’s insistence and confusion over application of air worthiness standards highlights one example of the hurdles hindering the speed of adoption that we need.
Treating attritable systems as munitions that they are rather than as aircraft, allows the services to unleash the full power of attritable mass and stay at the forefront of modern warfare."
https://andrewglenn.substack.com/p/unleashing-attritable-mass
23. Very wise and wide ranging discussion on writing LP checks from one of the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CN6-eqfCtxo
24. A take on France putting troops in Ukraine, one that actually makes sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsU6gONt8Z8
25. This was a solid discussion on various creative, cultural and general business news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGgoN7xbOq4
26. Chris Dixon is one of the top investors and thinkers in Silicon Valley. Excellent interview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9kVJ72kiAs
27. Good take on Angel investing with Scott Belsky.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTQ0GJct_ic
28. Good panel on how LPs look at emerging vc funds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x5hp-lx6e0
29. One of the best operators and investors in Silicon Valley: Elad Gil. So many lessons for your career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLA90pa-34A
30. Where American higher education is going. ie. blue collar jobs are back and critical. Don't do a 4 year degree.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZdfqqRAht4
31. Good run down of latest discussions in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV-O-6BI7Xw
32. "There is an increasing body of research showing that ketamine therapy can do wonderful things for people suffering from trauma, depression, and addictions. However, I would not recommend doing this recreationally or outside a therapeutic environment. It is intense.
What has struck me is the benefits of the session have mostly occurred well after the session as I process the experience and what to take from it. This is why several sessions done in a licensed clinic in conjunction with a therapist is a best practice."
https://www.profgalloway.com/prof-k
33. Relevant VC conversations for the time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4s0L_I6aY14
34. Understanding Japanese LPs. I have enjoyed working with my Japanese LPs in my previous business life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy2MkjW2pwI
35. Technology in the age of conflicting geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0JGtLHxKPU
36. Valuable discussion of creativity in the age of AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-ffIaLq1RQ
37. "The web2 attention economy has its shortcomings for users as well. A common refrain in web2 is that “if something is free, you are the product.” (Interestingly, the phrase also has its origins in the 1970s, with artist Richard Serra saying it about television). The dominant business model for web2 platforms is to amass as much data about users as possible, such that they can be more effectively targeted for advertising. In other words, the value that users’ attention brings is being harvested by platforms, rather than flowing to users.
Crypto can be viewed as the next iteration of the attention economy, with a much more efficient market. Memecoins, NFTs, and tokens (as well as new asset classes) can be considered new “attention assets,” measuring and capturing the value of attention in real time. Users can invest and own attention assets as a way to express their beliefs about whether that particular meme, media, creator, or network will accrue more attention and interest in the future.
When users invest in memecoins, they are implicitly making a statement that they believe that particular token and meme will grow in popularity: attention is the primary driver of value. One X user called memecoins “a way to angel invest in culture.” Platforms like Perl, Fantasy.top, and Friend.tech have created new financialized markets around attention, allowing users to profit based on whether they correctly guess which assets, creators, or content will succeed in garnering more attention."
There is No Hack or Shortcut: A Life of Excellence Requires Pain & Suffering
The All in Podcast is one of my must watch shows every week. I don’t really particularly like them as people but I respect them as tech operators and investors. They really shine when it comes to commentary about startups and Silicon Valley, the American economy & the culture wars, tech investing and investing in general. Even though the geopolitics angle they speak about is just plain wrong and awful. But as they say, the best people are spikey.
However, in Episode 139, there was a great discussion about work and excellence in general. It’s a long section but it’s worth a read. Here it is below.
JCal: “Idealized jobs. I just want young people to understand also. Be careful of what you wish for. This job has seemed easy. Just like it seems easy for Tom Cruise or Christopher Nolan. What you don’t see are all the people who have tried to be Tarantino. Who tried to be Tom Cruise”
DFriedberg: “Ten to Fifteen years before they realized that they were not.”
JCal: “And they did not have the fundamental skills or the work ethic to become Tarantino…..their knowledge of films is so unbelievable. And the detail that they talk about that is so crisp…….
We have a deep, deep understanding of this business that comes from thirty years within it or twenty years. I think you have to, I know it sounds corny, You have to pay your dues. You have to put 60-70 hours in a week to get that elite job. And the problem today I feel is, and for people who are listening who are young people coming out of schools, if you are not willing to sacrifice 60-70-80 hours a week for a decade or two, you are just not going to be successful in that career.”
CPal: “By the way, young people push back on this, and I think the simplest way to reframe it is in the following. Do you really think, for example, let’s pick NBA basketball. Do you think that you would be really interested or find it credible that the best player in the NBA only practiced 3 hours in the week? Does that happen? Or do you think they are practicing 3 hours in the morning and 3 hours in the afternoon and they give up their lives.
The most incredible thing that I saw in the NBA was that all of these men literally gave up their life to play that game to perfection. That’s true for anything. So I dont understand if you want to be a filmmaker, or an investor, whether you want to be an athlete, actor, a surgeon, it’s an immutable law of physics. So get over it. Which is you need to put in tens of thousands of hours and if you cannot or won’t, you should not expect the success and you should not complain. Because it’s not free.”
Amen. Life is supposed to be hard. Nothing is free. There is no guarantee that this hard work and sacrifice will be successful. But you increase the odds of it if you do the work.
However, if you don’t do the hard work and time in, I can guarantee that you won’t be successful. Absolutely 110% guarantee.
Assuming you have found the industry, job or business, the next step is going all in. Put in the hard time, make the mistakes and learn. Treat it like a craft. Be a Shokunin or artisan as they say in Japan. There is no easy path or hack to be the best. The sooner you realize this the better off you will be. This is the road to excellence in life.
Civilize the Mind, Savage the Body, Build the Bank Account: The Grand Triad of Life
I am such a big fan of Codie Sanchez and try to listen or watch all her videos. I wish her content existed when I was in my twenties. But alas, I will learn from her in my 40s.
She mentioned a great interview about the concept of the “3 Dimensional Human” or the 3 part pyramid to freedom.
What are the biggest and most important aspects critical for a happy and fulfilling accomplished life? It’s very obvious when you list them. Your mind (Intelligence & Learning), Your Body (Health) and Bank Account (Money). It’s a framework that everyone can use and absolutely needs to work on to win in life.
The Mind: I’d argue our most important resource is our brain, it actually burns the most calories in our body. It’s our biggest and most effective weapon in life as it helps us learn new things, adapt and find solutions to problems. But it’s also our biggest curse as we get distracted chasing dopamine hits, pursuing hedonistic pleasures and doing stuff that is generally bad for us due to wiring left over from our times trying to survive on the African plains tens of thousands of years ago.
That’s why it’s important to try to civilize our brain. Read as many books, take as many classes, listen to as many podcasts to better inform ourselves. Learn how the world works. I’d also add meditation to this list, it’s a critical tool to calm our monkey minds.
The Body: The next and parallel resource is our body. Savaging the body as they say which means we need to push ourselves with intense exercise. It’s a feedback loop: the stronger our bodies, the clearer our minds are.
The more hard exercise we do (ie. weights, running and martial arts), the better we feel and the better we sleep. I’ve written many times that health is wealth. It’s something we take for granted and most of us learn the hard way when we lose it. Having a strong body gives you confidence and endurance to push through the inevitable struggles in our business and our lives. It’s also a sign of discipline. If I am honest, I find it hard to respect people who are out of shape (short of some medical condition).
The Bank Account: Money is one of the most important tools in a capitalist society. Money is an enabler and energy. The more you have, the better your life is in general. The more experiences you can afford and the more opportunities you can go after. The more people you can help. It’s a great scorecard on how you are doing in the game of life.
And there are thousands of different ways of legally getting money. Working for someone is a much tougher path to this but a good start. Building something of value as an entrepreneur, still hard but a better chance of more money. All the way to investing well in all the many different assets out there from stocks, crypto, commodities, real estate and startups.
Sadly, most people are really strong on “One” of these aspects. One dimensional people ultimately don’t succeed. No point being a fit gym bro without money. Or a rich guy who is boring, crass and uninteresting. Or a brilliant nerd who is out of shape and cannot run or fight.
The point is about being strong on all 3 of these aspects. Strong of mind, body and bank account. Only then can greatness appear. It’s about becoming a better version of yourself. So get to work!
What Does “F-ck You Money” Really Mean: Why Financial Independence is So Important for a Great Life
I saw an incredible video tweeted out by Frederik Gieschen. “'F-ck you money' explained in the movie “The Gambler”. It is so good. You absolutely have to watch this: https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1723448925988835682
Jim Bennett: I've been up two and a half million dollars.
Frank: What you got on you?
Jim Bennett : Nothing.
Frank: What you put away?
Jim Bennett: Nothing.
Frank: You get up two and a half million dollars, any asshole in the world knows what to do: you get a house with a 25-year roof, an indestructible Jap-economy sh-tbox, you put the rest into the system at three to five percent to pay your taxes and that's your base, get me?
That's your fortress of f-cking solitude. That puts you, for the rest of your life, at a level of f-ck you. Somebody wants you to do something, f-ck you. Boss pisses you off, fuck you! Own your house. Have a couple bucks in the bank. Don't drink. That's all I have to say to anybody on any social level. Did your grandfather take risks?
Jim Bennett: Yes.
Frank : I guarantee he did it from a position of fuck you. A wise man's life is based around f-ck you. The United States of America is based on f-ck you. You're a king? You have an army? Greatest navy in the history of the world? F-ck you! Blow me. We'll f-ck it up ourselves.”
This is a bit crass but it’s really insightful and wise. FU Money gives you options. So many options. It gives you choices in life.
If you hate your boss or your job, you can quit. And without worrying about the next paycheck.
Heck, work for yourself. You can turn down business opportunities. You only do it if you find it interesting.
You get to spend time on stuff that is personally interesting to you. You can chase your curiosity.
You get to control how you spend your time and whom you spend it with.
You can live where you want. You can do what you want, as long as you are not hurting anyone else of course! You can do what deeply matters to you personally.
Everyone has a different level of F-U money. I think for most people if they had 12 months cash worth of expenses in the bank that would be enough. It lets you breathe easier and optimize for the long term. It gives you the calm to do the right thing for you and your family. It’s an incredible gift you have to earn. Your life gets so much better here so it is worth working toward this point.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 14th, 2024
“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” —Arnold Schwarzenegger
"Africa is in play. Russia has just announced that the remnants of the Wagner Group are now formally reconfigured into Russia’s new Africa Corp. Some call it “old wine in new bottles,” but the name alone indicates a significant increase in the direct control over cash flows and diplomatic influence by Moscow over Africa. There is little doubt that Wagner’s operations have increased and become more professionally managed since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin.
In the past, Wagner was run as a network involving “the complex dynamics between Russia, its oligarchs, and its criminal networks and how they interact with African governments, businesses, and populations,” according to The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. This is more than rebranding. Today, the private military contractor network is becoming a more formal arm of Russian diplomacy and policy.
The Russians had been recruiting in North Africa, looking for people to fight on the front lines of the war with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are now fighting back by going to North Africa as well. The Wall Street Journal says that Ukrainians are now fighting Russians in Sudan. It’s a complicated story. Russia’s access to gold in Sudan has helped finance the war against Ukraine. But, Sudan’s leader actually backed Ukraine. Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is Sudan’s military ruler. He, like many African leaders, has been at risk of a Russian-backed coup for some time.
So, he supplied weapons and support to Ukraine. When Russian forces began to threaten his regime, he asked Ukraine to help him. Ukrainian commandos are now in Sudan fighting Russian-backed rebel forces there. The WSJ quotes Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the Head of HUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, saying, “War is a risky business.” “We are in a full-fledged war with Russia…They have units in different parts of the world, and we sometimes try to strike them there.” Ukraine’s war is metastasizing into Africa now.
While these locations don’t get much attention, the reality is that the Global South is experiencing the presence of superpower interests. These places have the potential to trigger wider repercussions that we’ll miss if we keep our focus exclusively on Ukraine and Gaza."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-cold-war-in-hot-places
2. Another example of failed US statecraft. Haiti. This is all the fault of the woke State department.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wnyvCjkOkI
3. Scary new developments from the Russian military. Never underestimate your enemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFPeyPNXDkc&t=300s
4. This is a great overview of the latest on what's up in cultural & creative businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXO-bI85ijo&t=28s
5. Good discussion on what’s happening in geopolitics right now. Scary times to say the least.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usDv4JYX9mY&t=2s
6. "Trump badly needs money; his campaign is hurting for funds and he’s in legal trouble as well. Given that, plus his record of corruption, it’s absolutely plausible that he’d sell out to an ally of the Chinese Communist Party for a few bucks. The theory is bolstered by the fact that former Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway is being paid by the Club for Growth to advance ByteDance’s interests on Capitol Hill; Jeff Yass is the Club’s biggest donor.
The TikTok bill’s conservative champions thus abruptly found the rug pulled out from under their feet. The bill might still pass, but given how House Republicans lined up behind Trump on Ukraine aid, it’s fair to say that its future is now much more in doubt.
If the bill gets defeated, it won’t just be the embarrassment of a lifetime for China hawks who placed their hopes in Trump. It will allow an engine of propaganda and spyware to continue to compromise America’s national security. And it will show that the U.S.’ position in the emerging cold war is perilously weak.
Why are both TikTok’s current management and CCP mouthpieces so desperate to prevent a sale? After all, TikTok would still exist, and ByteDance would get tens of billions of dollars in cash. There’s only one answer that makes sense: Chinese authorities believe that TikTok is an important tool for influencing public opinion in the United States."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/trump-just-rug-pulled-the-china-hawks
7. "Say no to more chores and activities. Let go of FOMO. Do good work that moves the needle instead of work that just shows you’re working.
And how do we prevent a “Revenge of the MORE”?
Jim Collins, author of “Good to Great”, says that a “to-do” list isn’t the only thing that’s valuable. Sometimes it can be even more beneficial to have a “not-to-do” list.
When doing case studies on how 11 companies went from mediocrity to top performers he found, “my research team and I were struck by how many of the big decisions were not what to do, but what to stop doing.”
The companies turned themselves around more effectively not by doing more, new things but by subtracting the bad behaviors. And this can also work for “You, Inc.” It doesn’t just prevent the negative activities but also frees up more time for what’s effective and what makes you happy. Make a “not-to-do” list from your biggest time wasters and the things that drive you crazy and suddenly doing the good stuff seems a lot easier.
Often, the biggest step is just giving yourself permission to subtract. When you do, it’s like you’ve been wearing a backpack full of bricks and you’ve just discovered you can take it off. You feel lighter, freer. You realize that all this time, you’ve been running a race nobody forced you to enter. It’s like discovering a new planet where time moves at a reasonable pace.
Let’s strip away the excess, the clutter, both physical and metaphorical. In subtracting, we might just find something more valuable than what we’re giving up. We might find a bit of peace, a bit of space, and maybe, just maybe, a bit of ourselves that got lost under all that stuff…
I could write a few more paragraphs but you get it.
Sometimes less really is more."
https://bakadesuyo.com/2024/03/less-is-more/
8. "So here's my attempt at a key takeaway:
“Understand what everyone is thinking about, and then find what is actually true by understanding where that thinking could be wrong.”
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/intellectual-seat-belts
9. "I'll conclude with this: there is ALWAYS an opportunity to build a massively successful business. Like I said before; the age-old mission of any entrepreneur is to identify opportunities and take advantage of them. All of these canaries represent potential weaknesses to incumbents, but you're not limited to just waiting for big companies to get cancelled, or for the kick-off of World War 3.
One of the biggest opportunities seems to be in-line with a time-tested recipe. Looking for dinosaur incumbents that are far from dynamic, but who represent massive pools of revenue ripe for the taking. Understanding why a category has remained under-innovated is more critical than ever because if it was easy, it would have been reinvented already."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-age-of-incumbents
10. Lots of interesting thoughts on where the world is going. Commodities, gold, BTC and CBDC's. America as the Spanish empire not the Roman Empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6pHE5LCarI
11. A global macro view. Net net, financial weakness is leading us from a unipolar world to a multipolar one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiaEiz5SLs0
12. Marc Faber is a global investing legend. I don't agree with some of his views but like his adventurous spirit. Ultimate value investor.
Identifies Colombia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Thailand as interesting markets for assets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JLJxA5H5Hw
13. Strong case that De-Dollarization is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1s1CorH4X8
14. Lots of gems of wisdom here. Tai Lopez drops some knowledge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHBl1gIthKY&t=316s
15. Solid discussion on VC math and portfolio strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPa-_UyHgRA
16. This is such a great discussion on what’s what in tech land.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbn17ZlB24Y
17. "The most valuable firms are a function of the resources and activities dominating the economy. We have evolved from an agrarian economy to an industrial one to one that runs on oil, then services and now … attention. U.S. Steel, Saudi Aramco, and Alphabet created unprecedented shareholder value as they commanded the seminal resource of their respective eras.
Today the most valuable consumer companies monetize attention. And Reddit commands more attention in the U.S. than any company not owned by Alphabet. If attention is the new oil, then Reddit is Saudi Arabia, and resting beneath the platform is a sea of attention the size of the Ghawar oil field."
https://www.profgalloway.com/icebreaker
18. This is an important discussion. New space race being a driver for technology advancement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vINC342t54
19. "There is a lot of ruin in a country." Moving from a unipolar to the multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ci_96tBw2s0
20. Tuzla, Bosnia. Most affordable European city for digital nomads and remote workers.
https://www.travelandleisure.com/cheapest-european-cities-for-digital-nomads-remote-workers-8599393
21. Great guide to hiring execs for your startup well.
"So much of startups is about making quick calls from your gut. Seeing an opportunity and going all-in before you lose the chance. Founders get used to this, and then get tripped up by exec hiring, which rewards thoughtfulness and thoroughness. A bad hire is much worse than another quarter with no hire. Design a good process, take your time, and be sure you’re getting someone great."
https://www.harryglaser.com/hire-leaders-with-at-least-one-5-year-run/
22. "Correlation isn’t causation, but there’s good reason to think that physical (“atoms”) technologies are more conducive to compounding productivity improvements than digital (“bits”) ones. Even AI will have to build a lot of real physical stuff in order to fulfill its promise as a GDP accelerator. Obviously there are a lot of other things that affect physical goods production — NIMBYism, environmental regulation, trade patterns, and so on — but energy availability is probably a key input.
With ultra-cheap and ultra-portable energy from solar power and batteries, who knows what we could achieve — cheap desalination, cheap self-driving cars and e-bikes everywhere, personal air transport, super-powered appliances, robots everywhere, and so on.
But this utopia is under threat, from both increasing demand and limited supply. On the demand side, we’ve invented new digital technologies that could potentially use up arbitrarily large amounts of electricity: Bitcoin and AI. And on the supply side, there are a bunch of bad policies that make it difficult to connect new power sources to the U.S. electrical grid.
Bad laws and regulation prevent humans from enjoying the benefits of technological innovation. We saw this with the Soviet Union and other communist regimes in the 20th century. We saw this when overregulation halted the building of nuclear plants in the 1980s. And if we don’t act now to reform our dysfunctional regulatory systems, we could see it again with the solar and battery boom of the 2020s."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/three-threats-to-the-age-of-energy
23. "Biden’s conflicted strategy reflects the realities of contemporary coalition building: when it comes to countering China and Russia, democratic alliances go only so far. Biden’s approach also reflects a deeper, more enduring tension.
American interests are inextricably tied to American values: the United States typically enters into great-power competition because it fears mighty autocracies will otherwise make the world unsafe for democracy. But an age of conflict invariably becomes, to some degree, an age of amorality because the only way to protect a world fit for freedom is to court impure partners and engage in impure acts.
Expect more of this. If the stakes of today’s rivalries are as high as Biden claims, Washington will engage in some breathtakingly cynical behavior to keep its foes contained. Yet an ethos of pure expediency is fraught with dangers, from domestic disillusion to the loss of the moral asymmetry that has long amplified U.S. influence in global affairs. Strategy, for a liberal superpower, is the art of balancing power without subverting democratic purpose. The United States is about to rediscover just how hard that can be."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/age-amorality-liberal-brands
24. So much to learn here. Masterclass on building community based businesses and Personal Holding Companies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdnX63OEP5I&t=1871s
25. Important global macro discussion. Japan, Turkey, Gold, Uranium and natural resources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HE-DFXXN9c&t=745s
26. This is the new zeitgeist in startups and its good thing.
"Focusing on capital efficiency and alternative growth methods, particularly the emphasis on customer funding and increasing sales, is becoming more prevalent in the tech industry. This trend towards optimizing resources and exploring diverse funding avenues is likely to gain popularity over time. More entrepreneurs will strive to only raise one round of financing their whole journey."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/16/only-one-round-of-financing/
27. "So a word of caution as we step back and appreciate the professionalization of startups. There is a spectrum that exists where playbooks can be transformative or manipulative. As the game becomes more well-known, people start playing on the weaknesses of the game itself. And that can leave people vulnerable.
So learn from the people, processes, and playbooks that have been explored. But don't turn them into dogma."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/revisiting-the-professionalization
28. "In Eriksen’s opinion, the seven liberal arts (or “liberating arts,” not to be confused with the ideological monstrosity found in a specific department of formal education taught by those who are not liberated themselves) are, quote:
Logic: how to derive truth from known facts
Statistics: how to understand the implications of data
Rhetoric: how to persuade, and spot persuasion tactics
Research: how to gather information on an unknown subject
(Practical) Psychology: how to discern and understand the true motives of others
Investment: how to manage and grow existing assets
Agency: how to make decisions about what course to pursue, and proactively take action to pursue it.
I would encourage you to hold these in your mind while pushing into the unknown.
If you prepare yourself with a future-proof mind, what technical skills will be lucrative or useful in the far future are irrelevant because you can adapt as necessary.
To learn the liberating arts, these are the skills I learned:
Marketing & sales – if you don’t know how to attract and persuade, you will never get what you want, and your only option will be for an employer (or the government) to give it to you. (Rhetoric, psychology)
Writing & thinking – the ability to communicate the value in your unique mind. The foundation of getting in front of other people. (Logic, research)
Entrepreneurship – the process of taking my future into my own hands, hunting for my survival, and building products that I want to see in the world (that others care about). (Statistics, agency, investment)
Some may say things like entrepreneurship aren’t a “skill,” but I would argue that any mental process that becomes more efficient with time is a skill.
Everything is a skill, but most people don’t treat their life as a practice."
https://thedankoe.com/letters/the-future-proof-skill-stack-learn-in-this-order
29. George Friedman gives such an interesting view on geopolitics and has one of the best understandings of the world. The ultimate pragmatist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChoePtun3kg
30. "Great startup founders are pattern breakers.
They develop pattern-breaking ideas that differ significantly from our usual practices. Pattern-breaking founders challenge the usual, offering fresh views and solutions that depart from old methods. To most of us, their ideas seem far-fetched, perhaps even foolish, because they’re so different. Airbnb offered a completely different approach to accommodation than traditional hotels. Ridesharing introduced a brand new way for people to travel. Salesforce challenged us to rethink how we used and paid for business software.
But ideas alone don’t shape the future. Those who break the pattern must do more and take differentiated actions to make others believe. Their radical ideas clash with existing beliefs. People usually push back when their perspectives are challenged. So, pattern-breaking founders must find early believers who see the world as they do. They’ll also meet harsh critics, some clinging to the old for personal gain and others who don’t want to change."
https://medium.com/@m2jr/pattern-breaking-startup-ideas-e98578043e28
31. Excellent discussion on how to build your personal brand from an expert.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Seb-TYmwO2A
32. "One final point: This risk of a future fiscal tightening is one of the reasons why I do expect the YCC framework will be maintained – why give up a proven and very powerful policy tool when it does not cost you anything.
As long as you set the YCC ‘reference rate’ above the likely free-market rate you’re not obstruction free market price discovery; but when you want to exercise control you can do so easily by forcing a flatter yields curve – YCC effectively gives the BoJ two policy tools, the standard short-term policy rate anchor and a long-bond potential cap. A tool that, when needed, allows to control the slope of the yield curve –and thus net interest margins for the banking system – is a good one to have, desho?
In an age where policy makers around the world are looking for more potential control against free market volatility and disruption, why would the BoJ relinquish a powerful policy tool that, under Governor Ueda’s leadership, has actually re-vitalized private liquidity provision and true price discovery. And it’s a nice zero-cost insurance policy – just in case the market gets overly worried about run-away inflation and the BoJ doing ‘too little, too late’."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/go-for-it-ueda-sensei
33. I appreciate Justin Waller. Good positive model for young men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjyO3XKR8GQ
34. Developments being overlooked in the media. Sea-drones. Implication is Ukraine is winning the sea battle even though they don't have a navy. And showing major weakness on part of Russia's logistics chain to Crimea.
Climbing Mountains, Slaying Dragons: Carving Your Own Path
I remember when I was living in Taiwan back in 1998, trying to start my corporate career, lost and very poor. I was invited to a pool party in a very ritzy area called Tianmu. Like many of the Taiwanese rich, they were stealth wealth. We showed up at this nondescript house but once inside it was this immensely impressive house with a large pool in the back.
It was hosted by a friend of my roommate. Nice guy, found out he was a scion of a big local company. He was shipped off to the USA at a young age, to a private boarding school, followed by university and business school. Ended up working for a few years at the Boston Consulting Group before coming home to take over the family business.
I was so envious of him back then. How lucky was he to have a clear set future? And inherited wealth to boot.
But fast forward 25 years later. I now realize that blessing is actually a curse. Why?
He had no agency in his life, no real control of his future. He had to walk a path set for him by his family. Additionally, because he inherited the company and wealth, I doubt many of the workers and executives would truly respect him. Even if he is super smart, hardworking and expands the business successfully, there will always be a nagging question in people’s minds and on his own.
I understand how it could be a comfort for some people to have their entire future planned for them. But every man has a drive, a drive to create and build. Yet this drive is only really engaged when it’s towards goals they create themselves. And also it needs to feel earned. This might be why so many rich kids end up destroying themselves with hedonistic pleasures like gambling, girls and drugs. They haven’t earned or accomplished anything nor do they have any real goals, so that drive gets used in listless and degenerate ways.
I guess, looking back now, I’m the lucky one. I had no clear path set for me so I had to figure it out myself. And with hard work and many great mentors and smart people around me, I found my way eventually. Thus, everything that I accomplished and have was in pursuit of goals I set for myself and attributed to me. Not anyone else. All the mistakes and failures are on me. But consequently any success that happens was due to me as well. I definitely feel like I earned whatever I have (for better or worse).
So my advice for anyone just starting off in their career, understand that it’s okay to be a little bit lost. Learn about yourself, take some risks and try different gigs and opportunities. And understand that this is a long game. You may not see the end result for a long time but as long as you are learning, progressing and enjoying yourself, it will be okay in the end.
Be like olden day explorers who went off to discover the physical and mental frontiers. They set their own direction, charted their own maps, carved their own route through the jungle. So go forth and conquer. Find your own path.
Steel Sharpens Steel: Picking your Tribe and Environment
I spend plenty of time thinking about personal development and excellence. I think a lot of the quote: “Talent is everywhere but opportunity is not.” Why do some people do well in life and others do not? Is it luck? Is it nature or nurture? Maybe all of this.
I recall a conversation with my partner Carlos at Diaspora Ventures. For those who don’t know, we invest in European pre-seed founders who are targeting the US market. At that moment, we’d done about 40+ deals and looked at thousands of startups. We were looking through our portfolio and like in all portfolios there were clear winners and clear losers. As we dug into the numbers, it became obvious what the difference was. The founders and teams who were based in the US far outperformed the teams based in Europe by a long country mile, whether in plain traction, growth or even learning curve.
Why is this? I think it all comes down to being in the market. Being in the environment, surrounded by people moving at a faster and more intense pace.
This is relevant even at a micro-city level, not just country level. The famed VC Bill Gurley said when asked where he would start a company today. “Place can be very impactful so if I were a 22 year old founder starting something, I’d go to Silicon Valley just because it would increase your odds of success.”
When asked about Miami, LA, Boston? He responded: “I think many cities, whether it’s Austin or Miami, they have a problem that sounds ironic. They are a lot of fun. And so there is a question whether you attract the very most determined founders. Which may explain why Seattle has done so well. Not that it’s not a wonderful place but for two thirds of the year it’s dark outside. I think there are alot of contagious qualities to successful startups. Constantly around other people all in the same game is super helpful.”
As the title says, steel sharpens steel. As Codie Sanchez said: “Go where the game is being played.” You have to be in the middle of the game and always playing. If you want to get better, you play against better players. This is true whether in chess, judo, pickleball or tennis. The power of osmosis and seeing excellence helps you drive your own standards up. Being in the best and toughest place you end up learning and understanding what is global maximum, not local maximum.
There was nothing in my childhood that pointed to where I ended up today. I can say, almost everyone I grew up with in Canada was far smarter, disciplined and talented than I was. The only difference was I moved to Taiwan and then Silicon Valley which showed me how big the world was. It provided me opportunities to put my drive and tremendous capacity for work against them, so I could learn. Thankfully this worked as a little bit of this rubbed off on me.
I was lucky to join great companies, get good mentors and surround myself with people smarter and better than me in business and investing. You become who you hang out with.
And without this sounding too transactional you need to be with good, strong people. Preferable diverse people of diverse backgrounds and industries. I hang out with people who are startup people, VCs, hedge fund investors, agency & Holding Company business owners, people who run family offices.
My personality criteria for who I consider for my tribe:
Does this person have ambition?
Are they honorable and reliable?
Can I learn from them?
Can I help them in any way? As friendship is a two way street.
Do they meet the airport test? Ie. If you were stuck at the airport together for 6 hours would it be an ordeal or not. Preferably not an ordeal, of course.
Hanging out with ambitious, smart people is always good. And it’s why I still continue to live in San Francisco despite its very visible decline in quality of life.
Place really matters. Your tribe really matters.
So really pay attention to these two factors if you want to have excellence in your life.
“Sly”: Hard Earned Success
I finally finished the Netflix documentary on Sylvester Stallone. A poor kid growing up with a physically abusive father, he was the last person anyone expected to become a Hollywood movie star. But boy has he ever. Not just a movie star, but writer and director who has started 3 major franchises, Rocky, Rambo and the Expendables. And maybe more impressively, done this over a 50 year old career. It’s pretty amazing and inspiring.
He did not fit the mold of movie star so he wrote scripts and he had so much belief in himself that even when the studios were willing to buy the script of Rocky for $500,000, which was a lot of money at that time, and especially as he was broke. He was unwilling to sell it unless they were willing to allow him to star in the movie. Talk about betting on yourself.
And the rest is history. This led to his breakout and fame. He was relentless.
"I am not the richest, smartest, or most talented person in the world, but I succeed because I keep going and going and going."
He never quit.
"Every time I've failed, people had me out for the count, but I always come back."
He was willing to experiment throughout his career and try new genres like comedy. Even though these didn’t work out, he learned.
“They said, ‘Look, why don’t you do what you do maybe what you were meant to do?’ Going back to my roots you might say. To the point I said ‘Okay, Action, action, action.’
I realized at that point, it’s important to stay in your own lane, to become a specialist. Like an artist. You have that style, you’re a Rothko, and no one can do Rothko better than Rothko.
Everyone goes: ‘Oh We can do the full spectrum.’ We can be anything. No you can’t. You have certain manifest weaknesses and great strengths. And I said, focus on the strengths. Don’t sit there and try to do Shakespeare when you look like me.”
The magic was that he was able to use his writing and acting to transmute the pain he felt and disappointment he had in life. Something we all feel sometimes.
He said: “I try to take something that is what I wish I had done in real life, but I wasn’t able to do that in reality. And so, quite often, I would do it theatrically, magically.
You know, unfortunately, you put things before your family, and the repercussions are quite radical and devastating.”
And he talks alot about regret and it’s something I feel many times in my life. Especially with family and especially with your kids.
“There’s always that regret. I could have learned so much more if I hadn’t been so self absorbed and dealing with other people. You think about what you should have done at this age. And now they are this age. What did I mess up on? I’m there making a stupid movie instead of making their life.
They make me happy. They make me really sad. They bring me emotion. I had to almost lose it to respect it. So the act of loving my children now, actually taking such stock and value of the time…..Jesus….it’s so callous and brutal. And it sneaks up on you, and you go: ‘Okay, time to check out, Sly.’
Now it’s a matter of, I want to be the juggler. A really good juggler. You know, just….family, life, children, wife, you know? Art, just everything. Just….in balance.”
There is a deep lesson in that. So many of us career driven Type A people learn, always the hard way. Yet the way he is able to convert all his angst, pain and regret and lessons and turn it into something good. That’s something we can also learn from too.
“But if you have no guidance, and you have to go through life devalued every inch of the way, that leaves a hole. And that hole is never filled. What I can do is fill it through imagination. I want to somehow show hope. I’m in the hope business, and I just hate sad endings. Sorry. Shoot me.”
Well said. I recommend the documentary and hope folks check it out and learn from it like I did.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 7th, 2024
Life isn't as serious as the mind makes it out to be — Eckhart Tolle
This is an important post. Lots of people are suffering silently. Check in with your friends and family.
https://lifemathmoney.com/we-have-to-look-out-for-our-brothers/
2. "War is an ugly, brutal, and savage thing. It is also an eternal part of the human condition. Wars are best not started, as horror comes with it.
A just, compassionate nation will always ensure that it is strong and ready for war because war will surely come. Someone will win that war. It can be the just and compassionate nation, or it can be the aggressive and brutal nation. For a just nation to win, it must be prepared to be more aggressive and in a fashion, as brutal - in context and constraints - than its enemy.
The future is not granted, it is won and maintained through the successful execution of warfare."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/war-is-brutally-honest-name-it-as
3. A conversation with a true American hero.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ15ydAvR0M
4. This is not good. I guess demographics are destiny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdp6z2yC2R4
5. Mike Maples Jr is a legend in Silicon Valley and has been a mentor to many new VCs over the last decade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_itAzi2mZk
6. So many great insights for new fund managers on the art of venture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpCua9VvTLw
7. I love Buenos Aires. I really need to go back soon.
"Whether you're drawn to the vibrant digital nomad scene, the world-renowned culinary experiences, or the intoxicating rhythm of tango, Buenos Aires is your stage. So, as you contemplate the cost of living in Buenos Aires, remember that here, in the heart of Argentina, every peso spent is an investment in a life less ordinary.
Pack your bags, embrace the tango, and let Buenos Aires welcome you with open arms and a promise of unforgettable adventures."
https://www.remoteyear.com/blog/cost-of-living-in-argentina
8. "In this new age, I believe that venture investors need to be, first and foremost, investors. This may seem obvious, and likely is to those who have been in the business beyond this cycle, but core investor skillsets like financial acumen are rarer than I would expect given the amount of capital our industry manages.
Over indexing on marketability > math has inhibited a focus on the fundamentals of these businesses and that advice trickles into the companies and their cultures. We’ve seen it with several of the founders that we’re friendly with who were urged by their previous boards to continuously raise capital (i.e., market themselves and their companies), rather than focusing on running a great business. This destroyed a tremendous amount of shareholder value (especially for founders, employees and early investors) when these companies were forced to reckon with the public markets.
My belief is that the future of investing in this business requires a reversion to the fundamentals — knowing how to build a company capable of producing long-term FCF and being able to evaluate a company for its potential to do so. This may be less exciting, but I think it will drive far greater returns in the long haul as it has in other asset classes.
That isn’t to say that investors should abandon the hallmark skill sets that separate VC from others, but there is a tremendous amount to learn from the practices of other asset classes and believe that the best investors for this next generation of digital investing will bridge these capabilities together."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/evolution-of-investors-in-the-new-digital-age-b6edf0e5dd59
9. This was a fun discussion on personal finance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4iPHetTgaI&t=4663s
10. "So-called “seniors” are reliable voters, while young people aren’t, and so this perverse incentive ensures that seniors vote, effectively, to extract rent for themselves from young people through the state. This is reflected in voting intentions: people over 54 are disproportionately likely to vote for the Socialist Party, while those who are under 25 are disproportionately unlikely to vote for it.
This measured effect, if anything, understates the underlying reality, as young people vote more with their feet than with their ballots. They are a large part of those abstaining to vote and a large part of those leaving the country for other EU member states and beyond. One in three Portuguese people between the ages of 15 and 39 have left the country.
The most educated and accomplished are, of course, the first to leave in pursuit of opportunities elsewhere. This dismal story, in its broad strokes, is not unique to Portugal, or even southern Europe, but increasingly sounds familiar in aging societies from Germany to Japan, if not even the United States."
https://letter.palladiummag.com/p/early-article-who-is-portugal-for
11. "In a contested maritime century, we should start thinking about navies as the ultimate national security insurance policy. Like any insurance, they demand regular investments against risks that are unlikely but potentially grave. Navies work best to deter would-be aggression, but the industrial base to generate their capabilities underwrites military credibility. Crucially, when all else fails, that credibility stands to make certain that in the hour of need, the hardest challenges will be met and overcome."
https://time.com/6836406/naval-power-us-china-russia/
12. "But on closer examination it seems woke lunacy is only a symptom of the company’s far greater problems. First, Google is now facing the classic Innovator’s Dilemma, in which the development of a new and important technology well within its capability undermines its present business model. Second, and probably more importantly, nobody’s in charge.
Over the last week, in communication with a flood of Googlers eager to speak on the issues facing their company — from management on almost every major product, to engineering, sales, trust and safety, publicity, and marketing — employees painted a far bleaker portrait of the company than is often reported: Google is a runaway, cash-printing search monopoly with no vision, no leadership, and, due to its incredibly siloed culture, no real sense of what is going on from team to team.
The only thing connecting employees is a powerful, sprawling HR bureaucracy that, yes, is totally obsessed with left-wing political dogma. But the company’s zealots are only capable of thriving because no other fount of power asserts, or even attempts to assert, any kind of meaningful influence. The phrase “culture of fear” was used by almost everyone I spoke with, and not only to explain the dearth of resistance to the company’s craziest DEI excesses, but to explain the dearth of innovation from what might be the highest concentration of talented technologists in the world.
Employees, at every level, and for almost every reason, are afraid to challenge the many processes which have crippled the company — and outside of promotion season, most are afraid to be noticed. In the words of one senior engineer, “I think it’s impossible to ship good products at Google.” Now, with the company’s core product threatened by a new technology release they just botched on a global stage, that failure to innovate places the company’s existence at risk."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/google-culture-of-fear
13. Valuable discussion on global macro. Tech and crypto are well positioned in the long run.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9xiwTLaN5w
14. "There are two reasons people start to do things out of order inside a company. The first is that many people just want to skip the boring building blocks to do something innovative, which is entirely backwards. Nailing all the fundamentals around building a product or a growth loop is what most of the time enables good innovation.
If you don’t have strong product/market fit for your core product, an AI feature isn’t going to save that. Talk to customers! Why aren’t they sticking around? If your pages aren’t getting indexed and you have a bunch of duplicate content, don’t think about microsites or advanced link building ideas. Fix your site!
The second reason this happens is if you have worked on the basics in the past, you don’t have a good process to regularly audit whether they are still working as designed."
https://caseyaccidental.substack.com/p/wood-grain-steering-wheels
15. Discussion on Xi & China's future. Really important topic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Romrz7g-PSg
16. One of the most underrated B2B VCs in Silicon Valley. This is a great discussion on the art and science of venture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b92gl7YcDYQ
17. "If you really wanted to hedge your cheap cost of living (thanks to the socialists) then this could be done by taking a long option on some Argentine stocks. The two that stick out to me are of course in the energy sector. One is a more leverage play and the other is a safer play out of the two. I need to pay my thanks to Kuppy, BowTiedMara, and Taylor Selden on X (Twitter) for bringing these two to my attention. Check them out below the paid content wall.
The bottom line of this article, Argentina will still likely be immediately cheap post-election if Milei’s chainsaw proposal is initiated. Patricia Bullrich is the other contender and if she wins she will initiate similar policies to Milei, just slower. If somehow the socialists win again then I go on with my time as I have over the last year under hyperinflation."
https://geologotrader.substack.com/p/how-does-it-look-for-argentina-as
18. "Galatioto said, “I have never seen the level of demand I’m seeing. The pent-up hunger is incredible.” He pointed out the importance of scarcity in driving prices. Unlike the markets for real estate (“If you run out, you just build more of it”) or tech companies (“There are a bazillion of them”), when it comes to sports teams, demand vastly exceeds supply.
There are only 30 MLB teams, 30 NBA teams, 32 NFL teams, and 32 NHL teams. Including MLS and the WNBA, there are only 165 of these assets in circulation. This at a moment when over 2,600 global billionaires prowl the earth, hunting for one of a kind trophies. Charles Baker, a lawyer at Sidley Austin who specializes in sports acquisitions, expressed the scarcity aspect thusly: “You might have the biggest boat, biggest house, biggest jet—but there’s only one Yankees, only one Cowboys. They’re collector’s items.”
The people who make their way to Galatioto’s office tend to be wealthy, now, in ways they were not before. “Even if you’re a rich dude, you may not be rich enough,” Galatioto told me. “It’s a very painful message to deliver to someone who’s worth $500 million—that they really can’t afford it. People who are worth $500 million don’t take that news well.”
There are options available to the $500 million crowd. Minority stakes in teams (five percent here, 10 percent there) often get traded in what are called limited-partnership deals without any public fanfare. “People can buy $100 million, $200 million, $300 million of a sports franchise and it probably won’t even make the newspaper,” said Galatioto."
https://www.gq.com/story/how-to-buy-a-pro-sports-team
19. Another great episode: It's a great what’s up on the Edge of the Internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jlqv4Euhm7Q
20. Hit your enemies wherever you can. War is global now, not always localized.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcLabESiOcg
21. I love Japan.
"In Japan, by contrast, you see strangers in your neighborhood all the time — in the convenience store, in the noodle shop, or walking down the street from their own houses to those shops and restaurants. Even if you don’t like to meet strangers or say hi to your neighbors, it’s nice to see strangers and to see your neighbors. It creates a feeling of communality — of shared civilization and community — even if no words are spoken.
This is why in Japan, even if you live in a tiny apartment, it doesn’t feel like you live in a tiny, lonely space — you’re out and about so much that it feels like you live in a great big open space with lots of other people. American suburbia can feel confining and cramped because no matter how big your house is, there’s nothing and nobody outside those walls; in urban Japan, even with a tiny apartment, you occupy a great big neighborhood. That is very freeing.
Of course, all of this requires something besides mixed-use zoning — it requires high commercial density."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-japanese-cities-are-such-nice
22. One of the best conversations on what’s happening in tech from some of the best investors in the business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bD1rrBBcJSA
23. "While there are countless ways to build great companies (and certainly many ways that do NOT fit this framework), we’ve found the steps above to be helpful in establishing some order from within the chaos of starting, building and scaling a company.
As a firm that believes heavily in hypothesis-based investing, we like to see founders test/validate each of these through the various stages of their capital raising lifecycle and we generally find ourselves investing with visibility into a near-term flywheel and/or early signs of a potential moat. We often use this framework with founders to determine the key hypotheses they will need to prove out for their business at various stages.
While there are indeed incredible companies that generate near-term visibility of economic moats before even launching a product (showing great thoughtfulness in product design, strategy and execution), more often see it requiring multiple, methodical steps to unlock moats.
Proving/disproving these fundamental hypotheses requires immense focus and we try to align the Objectives and Key Results (OKRs) of the business to these hypotheses to ensure everyone in the company is squarely focused on their achievement."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/a-playbook-for-value-creation-9b7bdbb83878
24. We men need to be more like Tim Kennedy. Many of us let fear lead us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJnghC36VBU
25. Always a good conversation on trending topics in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf1UyfEtgXw
26. "People conflate a lack of focus with a lack of talent. Intelligence and talent are correlated with success, but the strongest signal of future success is your perseverance and resilience: what the books in airport bookstores call “grit.”
Unless you are supremely disciplined, your career will have to be something that gives you some enjoyment. But don’t mistake focus for your “passion.” People who tell you to follow your passion are already rich. Follow your talent. The accoutrements that accompany being great at something (relevance, admiration, camaraderie, money) will make you passionate about whatever “it” is.
Focus on putting yourself in a position to be financially successful. Get certified: In a digital world, much of the corporate world decides whether to swipe right or left based on the logos (aspirational universities/firms, vocational certifications, etc.) on your LinkedIn page.
Sector dynamics will trump your talent. (I realize how awful that sounds.) However, someone of average talent at Google has done better over the past decade than someone great at General Motors. Be thoughtful … any opportunity you have when you’re young to choose among different paths is a profound blessing."
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-algebra-of-wealth-3
27. A masterclass on B2B sales.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9101jnEN80
28. "Our competitors were going big, and instead of us going bigger, we went more niche. Human nature is to immediately want to one-up the opponent. Entrepreneurs would do well fight that urge and evaluate all the options."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/09/when-a-competitor-goes-big-dont-automatically-go-bigger/
29. All startup founders should read this.
https://www.startuphacks.vc/blog/18-mistakes-when-pitching-vc
30. Frank is the OG of Fintech investing. One of the most profound thinkers in Fintech vc.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBIFs9badGU
31. "When it comes to our longevity, there’s an age-old question of nature versus nurture: Are we destined for the path that’s been laid out by our DNA? Or do our everyday choices—what we eat, how we move, and who we allow to cause us stress—play a more significant role?
A growing body of research suggests that while genetics may predispose us to certain diseases, adopting healthy habits can help mitigate risks in some cases, even potentially altering how our genes express themselves (a growing field of study in longevity called epigenetics").
According to a 2016 review, genetic factors only contribute 20 to 30 percent to the variations observed in the life spans of identical twins. Lifestyle and environment dictate the rest."
https://www.gq.com/story/genetics-and-longevity
32. "Agency is the skill that has built the world around you, an all-purpose life intensifier that lets you make your corner of it more like what you want it to be, whether that’s professional, relational, aesthetic, whatever. Build a better mousetrap. Have an enviable marriage. Start a country. No one is born with it, everyone can learn it, and it’s never too late."
https://every.to/p/how-to-be-more-agentic
33. "Great marketing machines are like Costco. There is no magic wand. There is no secret lever. It’s about 50 little things, all working together. And that’s one reason why people have trouble understanding them. This may be obvious, but I’d never previously seen it so clearly. CMOs show the funnel slide in board meetings with stages and conversion rates.
But no one really understands the machine. They ask a few random questions, usually about channels. The inevitable attribution conversation follows. You can almost feel them searching for the one thing. (Or the one cock up.) But in this case, there isn’t one."
https://kellblog.com/2024/03/09/great-marketing-machines-are-like-costco/
34. This is still very relevant. I'd add learn tactical shooting skills.
35. "Making sense of North Korea is hard. In an age where the prime struggle is too much information — infinite content creation, misinformation, a news cycle that never stops — North Korea stands apart. What we do know about the country comes almost entirely secondhand, through the stories of defectors and the hard work of professional North Korean watchers.
But it’s only ever a composite guess, an incomplete portrait of a nuclear state with about 25 million civilian hostages. Still, the people inside are not the mindless drones that Western culture imagines them to be. Agency, however slight, exists and should be recognized.
There is one enduring truth, Baek told me: North Koreans are experts in survival. They have a saying, she said, that captures the population’s well-honed self-preservation skills. Here, when assessing danger, I might say I look over my shoulder. For North Koreans? “We have three shoulders.”
https://restofworld.org/2024/what-i-missed-when-i-went-to-north-korea/
36. "Looking ahead, the road to economic stability and prosperity for Argentina is undoubtedly long and uncertain. The government's willingness to tackle tough economic issues head-on and the initial positive outcomes are steps in the right direction. Popular support for dramatic change and the adaptability of businesses to the country's economic fluctuations are also reasons for cautious optimism."
https://www.markmobius.com/news-events/argentina-time-will-tell
Upside or Downside, a Blessing or a Curse: It All Depends on Your Perspective
I’ve started reading a fascinating book called “The Upside of Stress” and it posits that the way you interpret stress changes the effect it has on you. If you think stress is bad for you, and is something to be avoided, then it will be bad for your health. On the other hand, if you believe it’s good for you, it will turn into something beneficial for your health. There is research in the book that backs this. A total game changer.
This is relevant to many aspects of your life. I think about how this has colored my life in mainly bad ways. Growing up in Canada, in a financially challenged immigrant family, everything was looked at in a negative light. This is a very Canadian and British outlook. Scarcity mentality occurs in this environment understandably. Glass half empty, not full. I’m still working on fixing this myself.
As I grow my business empire I run a fine & tight budget with clear plans. I leave a limited buffer and almost all of it is allocated in business costs, travel costs, and of course family costs. But as they say, if you want God to laugh, show him your plans.
Something always goes wrong with this.
I have to make some super expensive flight ticket changes because of some family thing. My family also tends to be pretty careless with money as I spoiled them. And that’s your job as man to provide well for your family so i cannot complain (too much).
I almost always have to cover some surprise costs and some accounts receivable payments are usually very late.
Or the HVAC at one of my rental properties craps out and I need to pay for a brand new one.
Not cheap by the way. And even worse if it’s unaccounted for in my plan.
Tenants stop paying. Or some of your startup investments go bust.
I tend to be very rigid and an intense planner. I like things to run smoothly and life can be a challenge to this. Any deviation drives me nuts or just plain gets me down. It actually enrages me.
However, now I try (stress try) to just roll with it. If you are running a startup when does anything go right? In fact, when has any of your life plans gone exactly as planned? If it did, life would turn out to be very boring in the end. You get both good and bad surprises. Novelty is a driver for us humans.
I also understand that this is the cost of doing business. And because many of these surprise costs are related to business, it shows growth. Plus they are ultimately tax deductible and you get it back in some other way. It’s great to be a business owner in America!
I try to look at these setbacks and challenges as good for me. Setbacks are normal. They highlight issues in my thinking and plan. Unexpected budget overages mean I’ve made some miscalculations that I need to fix. Family costs overages just means I need to go out and make a whole lot more money. Usually by building a better system or doing better investments. Or that there is some breakage in my present business process.
You can always be improving and getting better. These setbacks are the path to more prosperity.