Lessons from Everyday Spy Part 2: Predictions for the Future America

So as continuation of the previous write up on the Everyday Spy interview with Steve Barrett. I found some really insightful and good takes on where America is right now. And more importantly the implications of the changes. As an old saying I heard growing up in Canada: “When America sneezes, the world catches a cold.” You may not like it but it’s true. An aging hegemony that still rides astride the world. I warn you, this is a long transcription but it’s really spot on. 

“So the writing on the wall for Americans is that we are transitioning into something new. We will never go back to what we were. And so you either need to be a part of creating the new America or you need to start thinking about where else you're going to go because the America we knew before no longer exists and it will never come back. This is new America now. So you either take part in it or you leave.

 Everything keeps going. So, you know, I don't know that America is heading for a future that I want to be a part of. I think that's for me. I think that's a true statement. But I think there's a lot of Americans out there who this is the path that they want to take. 

Andy goes on to say: “So when Ji says that we're in a transition and she doesn't know where it's going, she is accurate. We don't know what the future holds. Except we know the future holds more pain for sure because we will either come out of this through a painful transition that makes us better or we will come out of this through a less painful transition that leaves us in a position that none of us want to be in and then we're going to have to put in more pain to fix it all again. 

I think that we have a solid 60/40 right now. I think there's a 60% chance that we don't like where the transition ends and then we spend 15 to 25 years fixing it again. Fixing our economy, fixing our superpower status, fixing our foreign relations, fixing our trust of our own government. I think there's a 40% chance that the the decisive action Donald Trump is taking right now is adopted widescale and we actually stimulate our economy, get people back on the same page and and move forward in a way that keeps us one step ahead of our of the threats that we see from China, the disaster that we see continuing to unfold in the Middle East, the precipice that we have come up against in terms of geopolitics. 

There's a chance that we come out of that, but I think the dominant chance is that we don't. And I  would say that that's not just my opinion. That's the opinion of economists. That's the opinion of  foreign relation experts. There are multiple people out there who are all saying that our budgetary decisions, our foreign policy decisions, our military infrastructure decisions, our economic decisions are risky. Risky means there's a chance they'll work, but it's a low probability chance, not a high probability chance.

In such a scenario, then the economy would be hurt and then there'd be more wars presumably because if we're if the society becomes more individualistic and focused on themselves and nationalistic, then they become more of an island. People get more paranoid. They start building, I know Trump said he's building like he's calling it the Golden Dome over the United States so that he can fire any rockets out of the air if anyone attacks. And then you kind of have to unravel that and try and go the other way potentially. 

I try to do as much reading as I can. I'm sure you're the same way. And one of my gifts to myself is when I read fiction and I'm reading a book called “The Left Hand of Darkness” by a sci-fi legend named Ursala K. Le Guin. And it's a book from the 70s. And I'm reading this book and in it she has this quote where she talks about nationalism inside the world of the science fiction planet that she's on, right? And the quote is something like nationalism is not a product of pride. It's a product of fear. 

People aren't nationalistic because they're proud of what they have. They're nationalistic because they're afraid that something might take away what they have. And anytime you are driven by fear, you don't have the chance for true happiness. And what I found in that that passage from the sci-fi book was really very insightful to what I see happening across the United States. We're all nationalistic, left and right, gay and straight. Whether you are old or young, we're all nationalistic. We all love our country. 

But the things that's driving so much of our nationalism is this fear of the other side. Not a fear of the collapse of our society, not the fear of some rising power across the ocean. But for some reason, we're more afraid of our neighbor than we are afraid of the real threats that are out there. Because at the end of the day, people in California and Mississippi have much more in common than the United States and China. But for whatever reason, we get so distracted and so confused with our own infighting, that we don't realize that infighting is exactly what all of our adversaries from Russia to North Korea to Cuba to even Bulgaria, which is a NATO country that's pro-Russia, our infighting just helps them.”

The chaos in America only helps our enemies or competitors if you choose to call them that. The world is going back to the zero sum world it was before Pax America where there was relative stability.

Andrew goes on: “And what's the potential worst case scenario of that infighting? Because people think, okay, it just means people are going to pop off each other on on X and Twitter and social media and they're going to scream at each other and then

gridlock is the biggest challenge. I don't believe that we're going to be going into any kind of civil war in the United States. We're not going to shoot each other. We're not going to go machete our neighbors. Not now. 

But gridlock is going to lead to economic collapse. Economic collapse is going to lead to very real individuals having very real problems. Which is going to lead to an increase in criminal activity. People will steal from each other. People steal from stores. People will you know lie and hurt each other to try to take care of their own.

And as that society starts to collapse and we become more and more tribal again. All very predictable in all case studies that we've seen all over the world. As we become more and more tribal, then we will become fed upon by our adversaries who don't have the same problem.” 

The interviewer asks: “When you said gridlock is the first sort of domino that falls there. What is

gridlock? 

They answer: “I see gridlock is policy gridlock. We don't know how to move forward with Israel. We don't know how to move forward with the budget. We don't know how to move forward with whether or not we ratify these election results. Right? And in the passing of the time that we don't know how to move forward, it creates an opportunity for somebody else to bypass the democratic process and just dictate the outcome. And that series of dictations makes it so that the outcome is less collaborative, less well thought out, less well defined, less palatable for more people. And then that distrust kind of continues on. We do live in a moment now where the distrust for government is higher than it's been in a long time. We see the largest decline in American currency that we've seen in decades and in this century. 

We see a lack of public trust. We see consistent presidential approval ratings below 50 for every president that comes through. We are in a place where the people just don't trust their own government. And I would say that that's not such a big deal except that we are the wealthiest country in the world. We are the largest military in the world. We are the largest producer of financial tools and the largest producer of weapons. We are a big F–ing deal to not have our Sh-t together.” 

This is immensely terrifying. And as they say, the impact will be global and not just restricted to America. This is where your mindset really matters. An ability to stay calm and see through the noise. To begin preparing for all scenarios. Get fighting fit. Get skills. Stack cash. Make lots of friends. Remember 3 passports are the new 1 passport. 

 You owe yourself, your family and your community on this. And remember, if you are going to panic,  panic early! :)