Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 14th, 2022
Endurance is patience concentrated― Thomas Carlyle
Great thread on the importance of semiconductors. Worthwhile read.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedRobin/status/1549184609732071424
2. This is great because I loved the movie and found these leadership lessons helpful.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/6-lessons-all-leaders-can-learn-from-maverick-jennifer-dulski
3. This new series does look cool. Also I just plain love and miss Tokyo so much.
https://www.gq.com/story/tokyo-vice-is-crazy-cool
4. Bear Grylls' new diet & food adventures.
https://www.gq.com/story/real-life-diet-bear-grylls
5. These are some pretty interesting and important nuclear energy startups. This is the future like it or not.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedRobin/status/1549875429955080192
6. "2Q22 saw the largest quarterly decline in VC performance ever observed in our dataset."
https://www.angellist.com/blog/the-state-of-us-early-stage-venture-startups-2q22
7. I consider myself a leftist (maybe left leaning centrist) but this calls to me.
"The life of the first men was hard. They didn’t have to suffer through leftist struggle sessions, but they dealt with saber tooth tigers, Neanderthals in the night, and the true struggle to survive. A man’s will was moved to action by the desire to survive, to master his conditions, and to leave his mark on the world. To accomplish these things, a man had to fight, to go to war, to protect not only himself, but his family, his friends, and his people.
Men are made for war, otherwise the differences between man and woman wouldn’t exist as they do. Not only are they made for war, they’re made for adventure and the seeking of glory. Mankind has built in the prerogative to survive at all costs.
When you lift a heavy weight or are punched in the face, your primordial will is awakened. When you master your conditions and strive for higher horizons, your primordial will is moved to action. When you don’t do these things, when you buy into the zog life, your mind is poisoned. It becomes depressed. You have to reach out for the higher. No matter how hard life gets, when you’re pursuing the great work, you find a way not to get demoralized, to not let your mind get poisoned by the leviathan. Always seek the higher beyond yourself."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/mans-primordial-will
8. I am still bullish on the Ukrainian tech scene & Ukraine in general. Slava Ukraine!
"Despite this and many genuinely terrifying intrusions, the tech sector is thriving in Ukraine, a rare bit of upbeat news in a nation in deep economic distress. Through supply chain disruptions, port blockades and even theft, Russia has throttled the grain industry and the trade in metals, Ukraine’s largest exports. The economy is expected to shrink a startling 30 percent this year, says the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, helping to spark global inflation and adding to fears of recession and job losses.
But there is no way to lay siege to the 200,000 computer engineers and code writers in this country, professionals who need just a laptop and an internet connection to earn a living. Figures from the National Bank of Ukraine show that in the first five months of this year, technology companies brought in $3.1 billion in revenue from thousands of customers, many in the Fortune 500, a jump from $2.5 billion a year earlier.
Customers from Silicon Valley to Seoul have offered lots of ardent “We stand with Ukraine” affirmations during video calls, tech executives say, and many seem eager to support and enrich the country. The worry is that at some point, perhaps soon, this noble impulse will collide with the unsentimental imperatives of running a business."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/business/ukraine-tech-companies-putin.html
9. I'm bullish on Uranium as well. Nuclear is back!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWM70w5oGRg
10. Holy Crap this looks really good. John Wick 4.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27EF723ZDmI
11. I think about this all the time because I live in the highly taxed dysfunctional mess of SF in the mess of the USA. But I do travel ALOT.
"Because I miss the truly life-changing freedom that being a nomad affords. Because as a nomad, you don’t have to settle for any of the negativity that would impact your life at home.
You don’t have to settle for high taxes, expensive living costs, or an overcrowded city you despise. You don’t have to settle for a long commute, or a failing economy that’s negatively impacting your business. And you don’t have to settle for a corrupt government that only cares about serving the interests of the powerful.
In fact, the whole point of living a nomadic lifestyle is that you never need to settle at all."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/your-gods-are-deaf
12. "I think people confuse “having it all” with freedom. Having it all leads to the opposite, to more clutter and less freedom. It’s when you subtract all the obvious, what we are supposed to have, that the meaningful can really shine."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/the-simple-way-always-wins
13. EU & California's energy policy is insanely stupid. We're all going to pay for it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1550774894618705920
14. "Your first real entrepreneurial success will likely come after a series of failures. When you’re first getting started building a business, you are going to have absolutely no idea what you’re doing (and that’s okay). Your first business will probably fail. Your second business might fail a little bit less. By the time you’re onto your third business, you might catch onto something that actually works. After you’ve been in business long enough, you will have identified a lot of things that don’t work and a handful of strategies that do work to build a successful business. Eventually, you’ll have a decent idea of what it actually takes to get a profitable company off the ground.
It takes a while to become successful in business. Entrepreneurship is a marathon. Becoming a successful entrepreneur and building a profitable company will require working on your business full time over the course of several years."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/09/entrepreneurship-is-an-endurance-sport
15. "The goal is to keep the masses content so there is no civil war or unruly activity. We’re already at a point where crime is up significantly in major cities (NYC, SF, Miami, LA etc.). This is terrible for the ruling elite. The goal of the ruling elite is to placate people and make them feel better about their lives."
"Now you’re probably wondering, why is the government reliant on W-2 items? Why don’t they try to figure out the real numbers and include small businesses etc. Well this is because they know that humans are status chasing monkeys and always “compare” themselves to one another. If you want proof of this just go on Instagram. There is an absolute obsession with proving “high status”. Be it cars, boats, homes, vacation destinations etc.
Since they know people are status monkeys, one way to make the masses feel better about themselves is by *lowering* all of the income bands as much as possible."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/creating-a-21st-century-feudal-system
16. An interesting take that seems to synch with convos I've had with folks actually in Russia right now. Their economy is a lot worse than people think.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business
17. A bunch of trading legends here.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jack_Raines/status/1551261798388596737
18. Solid takedown on web3 poster child Helium.
https://mobile.twitter.com/liron/status/1551738599254773765
19. This article seems to explain the strange policy and frankly cynical & corrupt behavior of German political elites regarding their lukewarm and "supposed" support for Ukraine against Russian aggressors.
Disappointing to say the least but we know where they stand now. On the wrong side of history again.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/stop-being-surprised-by-germany
20. Any partnership between China and Russia will only flow one way. Towards China. Russia will become a junior partner at best, an inferior vassal at worst.
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-russia-relations
21. Lots to learn from history. Matthias Corvinus and his Black Army when Hungary was tops in Europe.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1470808717822156803
22. I truly believe this as well. One person can make a critical difference.
"There are times in history where the right man in the right place can make all the difference. Accidents of fate, the changing circumstances of fortune, and the randomness of events all conspire to turn predictability into uncertainty; yet a man of learning, vision, and character may, at times, interpose himself in the middle of these whirlwinds and by his actions change the course of history. It happens all the time."
https://qcurtius.com/2018/02/13/the-right-man-in-the-right-place-can-make-all-the-difference
23. "I believe, though, that it is most likely that Ukraine will win this war, on the basis of seven underlying factors that tend to decide the form of armed conflicts: time, economics, logistics, landscape, mode of combat, ethos, and strategy (the TELLMES). In the case of this war, we also have to consider the wild card of international public opinion.
The war has shown that the Ukrainian state (or really Ukrainian civil society) is far more resilient and functional than almost anyone would have thought. Ukraine is, in my view at least, in a position to win this war. But given the nature of its disadvantages, especially in economic power, Ukraine is vulnerable to shifts in how we think about the war. Russia's shortcut to victory, and perhaps its only route to victory, is in convincing us that Ukraine cannot win (or that the war is somehow Ukraine's fault, and that it would somehow stop if we turned away)."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-russo-ukrainian
24. "You really don’t need a grand vision for what your business looks like five years down the road. Instead, you just need to put yourself out there and continually learn about your industry and business in general. New business opportunities will start popping up. You will need wisdom and discernment to evaluate whether or not an opportunity is worth pursuing. Finally, you’ll need real ambition to pursue and maximize an opportunity when a true business opportunity surfaces."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/09/how-to-recognize-and-attract-new-business-opportunities
25. "Russia is therefore banking on economic distress leading to political upheavals in Europe and North that will weaken support for Ukraine. This is something of an endurance test because Russia’s economy is also showing signs of stress. The finances may be in good shape because of energy sales but there is not a lot to buy, and industrial production is steadily shutting down.
Europe is also certainly hurting but for the moment this has not translated into wavering in its support for Ukraine. With its own signal that it is prepared to see this crisis through, the EU has agreed to implement a 15% voluntary reduction in consumption of natural gas for this winter. As a Czech Minister put it: ‘Today’s decision has clearly shown the member states will stand tall against any Russian attempt to divide the EU by using energy supplies as a weapon.’
And this is why the battle for Kherson is important. Ukraine is anxious to recover its territory and justify the confidence of its people that this war can be won. In the process it seeks to encourage its Western partners to keep the faith."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-battle-for-kherson-and-why-it
26. "However, the greatest bottleneck to renewing our industrial base is building a more abundant, capable workforce within hard tech itself. For example, as many as 2.1 million manufacturing jobs could go unfilled by 2030, costing the American economy $1 trillion a year. In contrast, the production and sale of industrial robots is as robust as ever, as robot sales increased a record 43% in Q1 2022.
Even though automation is an essential part of our industrial future, an immense opportunity lies in recruiting more people to address our industrial needs and lay the groundwork for a bountiful and secure world. Put simply, American industry has a talent shortage—not just a technology shortage.
Thus, while automation is helpful for low complexity tasks, not everything can be automated—even at the production level. Physical tasks that may be straightforward for humans can present challenges for even the most advanced machines. For example, the simple task of tightening and loosening screw fasteners is still extremely difficult for robots. Furthermore, even companies as big as Apple have found that humans outperform robots in fine motor tasks like applying millimeter-accuracy glue to surfaces. As Peter Thiel wrote almost a decade ago, humans and machines are good at fundamentally different things. They are complements, not substitutes. "
https://countdown.substack.com/p/recruiting-the-new-industrial-base
27. This is a pretty good discussion & overview of geopolitical ramifications on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm64iIisusg
28. Been wanting to visit Colombia for a long time. This might be a good reason, although worried about their new President messing up their economic success there.
https://mailchi.mp/59d9f0f41a2b/is-colombia-still-investable-following-petros-election
29. Another great episode of NIA. These folks are on the forefront of creative entrepreneurial culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2laDa4Z8X_g
30. "Virtue is not a word you’ll hear me use here often because I don’t want to confuse anyone as to what I’m talking about. It comes from the Latin word Virtus(pronounced: weer-tous), which the Ancient Romans used to describe manliness. There may be some connection with the Greek word Arete, but Arete for the Greeks meant excellence. The Romans were a hard warrior people, so Virtus was seen not as we see manliness today, but in a primordial, militaristic way. A man was a warrior and hunter. Hell — in the legion, he was also a construction worker.
Before Virtus becomes the modern virtue, the word became Virtu(pronounced: veer-too). Virtu was an Italian word meaning POWER and the concept of Virtu was developed by Niccolo Machiavelli. Machiavelli defined Virtu as the qualities desirable for a man like his martial spirit and ability to conquer. Virtu meant courage and ruthlessness in the pursuit of great tasks. He also said the man of Virtu must also be willing to “do evil when necessary.”
You must not look at the word evil as we do today with the Christian duality, rather understand, that evil is perspective. Your enemies will happily do evil if it means destroying you and you see it in the actions of the leftist. You must be able to do the same to them."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/virtu
31. This writer is a Right wing A--hole & normally hate his views (which is why I read them to keep my views balanced) but this time he is spot on for a change.
"The average 21st century American politician doesn’t care about you and your family, or even the district he or she represents. As COVID Mania made crystal clear, their main concern is making sure they have the power to rule over you.
Over the past few years, the politicians in charge have authorized the printing of trillions and trillions of dollars in the name of a “global pandemic.” In doing so, they debased the currency and set off an inflation time bomb, making the vast majority of Americans significantly poorer and worse off.
While the average American is now combating the horrors of government and Federal Reserve-induced stagflation, the politician’s patrons are wealthier than ever. The major beneficiaries of this decade’s money printing adventures have been the people who already have all of the wealth and power."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/if-you-want-to-fix-the-economy-separate
32. "Foreign friends who visit Buenos Aires cannot understand how, in the midst of this economic crisis and with the dollar surging to new highs every week, restaurants, bars, theaters and concerts (even international shows that are very expensive) are still packed to the max.
This is how hyperinflationary phenomena work. Same happened in Weimar Germany: people spend their excess cash as quickly as possible, and since saving capacity is next to nothing, they prefer to spend it. For tourists with foreign currency Argentina is one of the cheapest Latam countries now."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-weimargentina-rollercoaster-at
33. Good discussion by my fave Geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan. Decentralization is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeFwD1d7V7I
34. "The World is set for an era of not only upheaval, but of new players. Every major name and dynasty is either dead, dying or in the gutter. The Old Guard is gone. Perhaps I am mistaken, but given the current crop of leadership, I doubt it.
The World needs new and proper stewards. Ones that can navigate the problems of today, and tomorrow. Ones that can govern, and make the hard decisions.
I suspect we will need them sooner, rather than later."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/go-forth
35. "Whichever way you go it does mean increased prices on all energy sources in an environment where recessionary pressures are already building up and where at the same time interest rate hikes need to dampen raging inflation. This is a pretty potent mix for not just a dark winter, but also for a new year full of uncertainty. It seems not everyone is paying attention to this as it is holiday season all over Europe, but there can be little doubt that some will and seek to exploit the political opportunity of a lifetime.
The aforementioned populist right (strong in Germany, France, Italy and, yes, in The Netherlands) have been given another sharp instrument to beat up incumbent centrist and liberal governments. Where first immigration and then Corona helped shape a broad-based populist movement, it may now seek a decisive political breakthrough on the Russia-infused economic meltdown."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/dividing-the-west
36. "From the perspective of Britain and the EU, the wood pellets they burn were immaculately conceived – the manner in which the pellets arrived at their power plants is not relevant to their carbon emission calculations. By burning “carbon neutral” wood pellets and decreasing their use of coal, European environmentalists get to brag to the rest of us about what wonderful stewards of this shared planet they are, all while being among its worst offenders."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/back-to-the-future
37. "Not only has Putin exposed the Russian military’s tactical and operational shortcomings, his ill-advised invasion has united the West against Russia at unprecedented levels.
Western arms supplies to the Ukrainian army have totaled in the tens of billions of dollars with no sign of letting up.
The West is also working to wean itself from dependence on Russian fossil fuels. In the long run, such a move will likely have serious consequences for Russia’s undiversified economy, which relies heavily on Western purchases of its oil and natural gas.
Thus far, Putin has only achieved pyrrhic victories in Ukraine. As Russian resources dwindle and the economy constricts, Mr. Putin will eventually need more than leveled cities to invigorate domestic support for the war, not only for the general populace but also for the ruling elite.
Tucked safely away in the Kremlin, Putin has fostered a climate of ruthless realpolitik where failure is not tolerated. If the war in Ukraine continues on its current trajectory, Vladimir Putin may fall victim to the very culture he created."
https://medium.com/@aleonard82/putin-not-the-master-tactician-we-thought-he-was-224af564ba7f
38. "What this warrior religion project proposed is many things, but first and foremost, putting faith back into the warrior. There really hasn’t been a war won by Americans since World War II and what characterized the American armies since then? The reliance of technology. Vietnam was about showing superior firepower, dropping missiles of all sorts just to blow up some Vietcong in the rice patties.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq was about how superior American weaponry disabled resistance before American boots were even on the ground. The men in the Middle East and Vietnam refused to believe they were defeated. Overtime, America was forced to withdraw, not because our soldiers didn’t have the will to fight, but our culture couldn’t stomach what it took to fight a real war.
Yes, technology dominates warfare now, but you are a fool to think it will replace the warrior. The nation that puts its faith in the fighting man will always keep its sovereignty and likely, conquer whatever they want to conquer. A warrior religion must, by its name, put its faith in the warrior. The greatest crime of this world is democratic armies where the Commander and Chief is a civilian. I agree when BAP says the only just government is a military one. To let a man who either isn’t a warrior or hasn’t fought for his country run it is part of the reason we’re in the problem we are now."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/faith-in-the-warrior-and-kris-kershaws
39. Lots of good insights for emerging VC Fund managers when fund raising from LPs.
https://www.signatureblock.co/p/how-to-raise-from-lps
40. "Russia's meddling in Sudan's gold began in earnest in 2014 after its invasion of Crimea prompted a slew of Western sanctions. Gold shipments proved an effective way of accumulating and transferring wealth, bolstering Russia's state coffers while sidestepping international financial monitoring systems.
Multiple interviews with high-level Sudanese and US officials and troves of documents reviewed by CNN paint a picture of an elaborate Russian scheme to plunder Sudan's riches in a bid to fortify Russia against increasingly robust Western sanctions and to buttress Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
The evidence also suggests that Russia has colluded with Sudan's beleaguered military leadership, enabling billions of dollars in gold to bypass the Sudanese state and to deprive the poverty-stricken country of hundreds of millions in state revenue.
In exchange, Russia has lent powerful political and military backing to Sudan's increasingly unpopular military leadership as it violently quashes the country's pro-democracy movement.
Most of CNN's insider sources claim that around 90% of Sudan's gold production is being smuggled out. If true, that would amount to roughly $13.4 billion worth of gold that has circumvented customs and regulations, with potentially hundreds of millions of dollars lost in government revenue. CNN cannot independently verify those figures."
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/29/africa/sudan-russia-gold-investigation-cmd-intl/index.html
Finding Your Happy Place: The World is Your Oyster
There are so many wonderful cities and places to go to in the world. But it’s interesting which places you end up vibing with.
So for example, as much as I enjoy London or Berlin or Barcelona or Amsterdam, these are not places I think I could ever live in or spend extended periods of time in. Do not get me wrong: these are amazing cities but for some reason I just don’t feel a deep attachment to them.
I tend to prefer places either more off the normal travel itineraries like Belgrade in Serbia, Tbilisi in Georgia, Riyadh in Saudi Arabia or my beloved Kyiv. I do miss Kyiv greatly (and doubly curse Putin and Russia for their heinous invasion).
Lisbon in Portugal or Waikiki in Hawaii are all popular cities in the world for many people to visit. Yet I have come to feel very much at home in these places. There is this feeling of comfort and attraction when I get there. A good vibe as they call it.
Don’t get me started about Tokyo. This is a place I’ve loved since I first went there as a fifteen year old boy. A metropolis of 30+ million people but full of unique neighborhoods, shops, lovely parks and museums. And absolutely amazing food & a deep craftsperson culture. This is also the reason I deeply love Taipei and Taichung in Taiwan. I certainly would love to spend more time in places like Riga, Budapest, Buenos Aires, Stockholm, Vienna, Mexico City and Belgrade as well.
You pretty much have my list of favorite places outside of San Francisco and Vancouver in Canada. All of these cities are ones that I will be spending much more of my time in the future. My happy places.
Btw: you don’t need to be wealthy to do this, as stated in Digital Nomad classic “The Four Hour Work Week” by Tim Ferriss. You can be doing a remote job, run your own business or even better run your own online business that earns in USD and Euros. Pick the right cities and your quality of life goes up. And more likely your cost of living goes down too.
I think in this new multipolar world, it’s important to have multiple places you can feel comfortable and be at home in. With remote work becoming more prevalent, the increasing availability of Starlink internet connections anywhere and the added threat of overreaching governments everywhere, this is important for anyone who wants to thrive in the new emerging world order. You need a mindset of going where you are treated better. Of going where there are new interesting opportunities and emerging new communities of like-minded people. And of course, finding the cities and communities you vibe most with.
We are entering a world where talent & creativity becomes even more important than ever and the very smart leadership of cities like Dubai, Singapore and Miami are leading the way here. Watch this space!
Age is Just a Number: Older is Not Wiser, Younger is Not More Youthful
I was thinking about this as I turned 48 this year. I decided to spend it in Hawaii because why not? You do the regular things like lots of beach and ocean time, shopping and plenty of good eating. But the best thing is the people watching. Hawaii, just like Las Vegas, is an incredible microcosm of the entire population of America who come to paradise to vacation. You see people of all different races, ages, socioeconomic situations and also physiques.
It struck me that age is a relative thing. I saw 20 somethings who looked and moved like 60 year olds and 60 year olds who moved, looked and acted like 30 or 40 year olds. How many of you have seen men or women aged 40 who look like they are 60 years old. Beaten down by life. A bad diet and lifestyle. Prematurely aged. I am sure we have all met people like this who live a sedentary, aimless and frankly poor lifestyle.
This is in contrast to a professor I met in Hawaii, named Dr. J who created a program called Philosophy for Children at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. He must have been in his early 70s but what a dynamo! With the energy level of a 16 year old teen.
Some of this is due to DNA and genetics, a lot due to lifestyle and diet. The old argument of nature versus nurture. But a big part of this, I think, is due to their mindset and having a bigger driving purpose. Ikigai as the Japanese call it.
The Oxford English Dictionary defines ikigai as "a motivating force; something or someone that gives a person a sense of purpose or a reason for living". More generally it may refer to something that brings pleasure or fulfillment.
This man, Dr. J, has a powerful and infectious energy because he loves what he is doing and is able to spend his life doing it. He was a great reminder to me of why I do what I do.
I look back in my 20s and 30s and think about how hard I grinded, working 100+ hour work weeks. I did it because I was scared of poverty, searching for money and wanting to learn and excel in my career. A big part was when you don’t know anything, you just have to “brute force” it by working hard. You have to do this to learn and go up the learning curve.
I did this also because I just did not know any better. As a clueless dummy who did not understand how the world truly worked. I made a lot of money but I also spent a lot of money. Growing up without much money, I wanted to experience the lifestyle I thought I was supposed to. The typical middle class curse & stupidity of keeping up with Jones by keeping up a high cost structure and struggling paycheck to paycheck. The more money you make, the more expensive your lifestyle grows. You get caught up in this crazy treadmill like a brain dead hamster.
Uggh, I can’t believe I did this stupidly for over 24 years. Although in my defense, in society, especially in the United States we are taught to be “consumers” not “producers.” It takes some time and experiencing not a little bit of pain for ignoramuses like me to learn this and break through this mental block.
Thankfully I did make that breakthrough. And I can honestly say as a 48 year old, I’m more energized than ever before. I get up excited about the day in ways I have never been before. As stated before, it’s because I have a clear mission, I do work I enjoy and get to work with people I genuinely like and respect. Ie. people I choose to work with. But I also value my health and time so much more. I sleep more and nap a lot. I exercise every day & get as much sun as I can, even in foggy San Francisco.
I certainly eat healthier than I ever have. It’s almost criminal how unhealthy and terrible our diets were even just 10 years ago, let alone 20 years ago. And it helps that in my work, I get to spend time with so many young and brilliant people. These amazing startupers and technologists from across the world. I feel like a vampire absorbing their energy, enthusiasm and brilliance. The difference at this stage of my life, I hope I am a little bit wiser and know a little bit more. As they say, “Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.”
Age is relative and a state of mind. I hope when people see or meet me they see someone who looks and has the energy of someone 20-30 years younger than my actual age. My aim and hope is that I can show and pass this energy to everyone I meet and interact with along the way. And I hope to combine this with all the experience I’ve learned the hard way.
If this old dog can do this, so can you! Sending my Aloha spirit to you.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 7th, 2022
Endurance is one of the most difficult disciplines, but it is to the one who endures that the final victory comes― Gautama Buddha
"Building a global, decentralized computing network is impressive. So is launching a telescope into space that can take pictures of stars from billions of years ago. Innovation is all around us. It can take decades to play out, which means it is easy to lose sight of how incredible these milestones are.
The future belongs to the builders. Everything around us has come to fruition because an individual or group decided to do the hard work to create something new. Watching the excitement around the Webb Space Telescope reminded me of how important the builders are. The bitcoin network is no different — the builders are essential to success.
Ask yourself this question, “what am I building?” The answer should tell you a lot about where you are in your journey at the moment."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-builders-are-essential
2. "Many books have been written about how Buffett picks stocks. But what is more interesting is how he created conditions of longevity when he discarded the hedge fund structure in favor of Berkshire Hathaway’s permanent capital or how he evolved as an investor by cultivating new friends or mentors. There is too focus on specific actions (in his case investments) compared to the design choices he made in business and life."
https://neckar.substack.com/p/commodities-corporation-traders-innovators
3. Going to Poland in August. It’s a cool place and visiting will help Ukraine too.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2022/jul/12/how-a-holiday-in-poland-can-help-support-ukraine
4. "Venture activity and markups have crept back towards the “normal” line, suggesting a potential return to pre-pandemic levels of activity and tenor. Whether performance continues to fall (i.e., moves southwest) or flattens remains to be seen.
Note that, if we’re using the “Normal” line as a reference, then even venture performance during this “Pullback” period would be considered very positive by historical standards. The fact that it's seen as a downturn is a reflection of the bull run early-stage venture has been on the past 18 months."
https://www.angellist.com/blog/forecasting-a-return-to-venture-normalcy
5. Truth: relevant for all founders and probably personally too.
https://twitter.com/gokulr/status/1546956493945069569
6. Love it. Go NAFO.
"An unofficial army of cartoon Shiba Inu dogs is making life hard for people who post Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine online. They are known as NAFO, the North Atlantic Fellas Organization, a small but growing cadre of shitposters who’ve gathered to raise money for Ukraine and call out obvious propaganda when they see it. It’s getting hard to tow the Kremlin’s party line on Twitter without them showing up in the replies to mock and counter it."
7. Absolutely spot on. Hope founders are reading and paying attention.
"Meeting an investor for the first time can come with a lot of pressure. You want to put your best foot forward, but you must be cautious not to trip over the line between enthusiasm and embellishment. Just like on a first date, investors are watching for potential red flags.
If I think you’re exaggerating, misrepresenting yourself or lying, chances are we’re not going on a second date."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/how-to-lose-credibility-in-5-easy-steps
8. "So Musk has effectively gone on a rampage, recklessly destroying shareholder value across the board, not to mention depriving lots of investment bankers and lawyers of million dollar paydays. He has not made any friends, even Trump - possibly eyeing a return to tweeting - threw him under the bus yesterday.
But in a very telling way Elon Musk has acted precisely like Trump by promising grandiose things and then failing to deliver. ‘Make Twitter Great Again’ would have been an interesting sub-title to the offer he made only a few months ago and which has now fallen apart spectacularly. Shareholders (of both Tesla and Twitter), employees, Twitter users and audiences, and in fact pretty much anyone else wondered what has just happened. Now it is off to a court in Delaware where the show continues."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/make-twitter-great-
9. "Today we can store and access pretty much anything via the cloud: books, music, movies, cars, houses, deliveries, clothes, sports equipment et cetera. We can experience everything via access without the burden and high cost of ownership.
It’s quite eye-opening to realize that > 80 percent of what we really need has nothing to do with materialism or consumption but about our relationship with ourselves, and others; our ability to learn and grow; and a clear and worthy life purpose and mission.
While society wants us to skim the surface of everything, spread our attention thinly, react and act to every promoted desire, as human beings I think we need more meaning; to dive deeper, to stay deeper, to live deeper than what’s being offered."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/what-do-we-really-need-to-own
10. This man Is a badass and hero. Also a double trident: from US & S. Korean Navy Seals. He shares his experience in the military and fighting as a Foreign Legionnaire in Ukraine against the barbarian Russian invaders.
11. "The most fascinating part of these companies to me is the potential variance of outcomes, along with the historical uniqueness. Theoretically, the distribution of company outcomes is supposed to shrink as the business grows over time. On day 0 (and again, theoretically), it can completely fail or be a $100B+ outcome and everything in the middle. In its terminal state, you should know what it is.
The consequence of yesterday’s private tech markets is that there is a generation of businesses that *look* mature on some dimensions (market capitalization, headcount, etc.) but could realistically go any which way over the next few years given the interplay of large cash piles on their balance sheets and their actual immaturity (how long they’ve been around, revenue scale)."
https://aashay.substack.com/p/dealing-with-a-hangover
12. This was such a great episode. Discussion on Emerging markets, inflation & science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsGdPCtquGg
13. This is a must read for all policy makers and Americans.
"To be clear, our goal should be the proliferation of carbon-free energy and a cleaner, better world for everyone. No one wants to kill the whales. But there are crippling second-order effects of this transition that we’re charging toward in blissful ignorance. Chief among them, if we don’t control our critical material supply chains, the path we’re accelerating down will lead to the end of American preeminence, and the global shift to a Chinese world order.
Put in simple terms, America and our allies lack secure access to the necessary materials for developing the next era of industry — not only solar panels, but key components of every machine in our entire technological infrastructure. Incredibly, we have given up our control of these materials by choice. Moral indignation and a sense of virtuous spite have driven us into dependence on what is clearly a geopolitical adversary, twisting us into a Chinese finger-trap. Now, as we slowly wake up and struggle, the grip tightens."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/control-the-metal-control-the-world
14. More on what the barbarian scumbag Putin and his cronies are up to with this so called "Operational pause." May they burn in hell.
15. Another example of badly thought out ESG policy. Curse the WEF & World Bank & all the stupid, corrupt unserious politicians.
"To some, the fact that Sri Lanka achieved a “near-perfect ESG score” and then collapsed is ironic. To us, it is causal. For all the nuanced specifics involved, including government corruption, insane fertilizer bans, and submission to foreign know-it-all experts, at its core, Sri Lanka collapsed because it flubbed its energy policy.
Fertilizer and food are nothing more than derivatives of energy – rather important ones at that – and Sri Lanka stands as powerful evidence that energy is indeed life, and the absence of energy is death. As videos of Sri Lankan citizens ransacking their Presidential Palace went viral on Twitter, we could not help but feel a deep sadness. Absent a massive and urgent intervention by international aid organizations (which does not seem forthcoming), no amount of protesting will win Sri Lanka’s citizens a reprieve. Akin to passengers scrambling through the banquet halls of the Titanic, their fate is sealed. Mass starvation and unthinkable suffering undoubtedly await."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/running-from-empty
16. "If we want to make a current prediction, it would be another 12-15 months until housing becomes more “affordable” and reasonable. Justification as follows: 1) inventory all time low which means has to go up, 2) rates have to go up, 3) people have to miss multiple payments before being foreclosed/evicted and 4) layoffs still haven’t occurred so that will add another 6-8 months until true pain sets it.
In short, the housing market is likely in round 1 or round 2 of a long boxing match with Floyd Mayweather (of course it goes to decision and housing loses since Mayweather never loses).
What Would Cause a Sudden Swing to become positive? Three things: 1) sudden pivot and stopping rate hikes, 2) sudden pivot to printing money and 3) sudden pivot to on MBS. Right now the goal is to *reduce* MBS on the balance sheet (nothing has happened so far). After they signal they are done reducing the balance sheet then things get a lot more interesting."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/get-ready-for-some-re-statements
17. Eye-opening. There is a commodity boom coming, caused due to our unserious politicians making policy based on platitudes & narrative and not on reality and physics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFjbFkNxtFE
18. I attended Anarchapulco back in 2018. Learned a bunch of stuff but it was a wacky conference. This looks like a fun documentary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1EA5k34PEM
19. This is sad but may become commonplace in emerging markets.
"So what lessons can other countries learn from Sri Lanka’s crisis? The U.S. isn’t in a similar situation at all, so there are relatively few lessons for us — when we have economic crises, they tend to be of a different variety. But other emerging markets can definitely draw lessons here. First, don’t do boneheaded things like banning fertilizer. Second, be careful about borrowing a ton of money from foreign governments, especially ones like China.
But the best way to make sure you don’t have a currency crisis is to not set yourself up for one in the first place. Don’t run large and persistent trade deficits if you can’t borrow cheaply in your own currency. Don’t borrow a ton of money denominated in foreign currencies. And don’t peg your exchange rate too high. It’s always tempting to play populist and shower your people with underpriced imports in the short term. But in the long term this just never works."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-sri-lanka-is-having-an-economic
20. "The question of Silicon Valley’s existence borders upon the spiritual. It is a region that has birthed nearly every major technology development of the last 40 years. If you believe, as I do, that technology must jump radically forward for the human race to survive, then learning what powered the Valley’s output is worth serious study.
The answer to the question, unfortunately, appears to be rich assholes.
To be more specific, the answer appears to be the variety of a-hole known as a venture capitalist.
That, at least, is the thesis of The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future by Sebastian Mallaby. Mallaby posits that it was a combination of semi-unique social variables (Stanford, Hippie Culture, etc) AND a network of risk-happy, early-stage financiers that catalyzed the region’s meteoric rise. These two factors together created a self-reinforcing network of virtuous capital where each successive generation of funder and funded imparted capital and wisdom to the up and coming cohort of builders."
https://every.to/napkin-math/has-venture-lost-its-soul
21. "There is plenty of pride and emotion in this case, and it would be foolish to underestimate it. Musk may decline to negotiate a settlement because he doesn’t feel bound by the law. Twitter may refuse to settle because it feels it must stick it to Musk — who’s routinely disparaged its executives — and see the process through for the sake of its shareholders. And the Delaware Chancery Court may feel its legitimacy is at stake, and therefore opt for specific performance to demonstrate the law means something.
But a settlement that merely inconveniences Musk remains the most likely outcome. And though Twitter — which made $5 billion last year — could use his money, it will likely be deflating for the company and its shareholders after everything it’s endured."
https://bigtechnology.substack.com/p/i-dont-think-hes-screwed-at-all-musk
22. "I still think the likeliest outcome by far is that we’re able to stop great-power competition from escalating to all-out war — Cold War 2 rather than World War 3. I use the term “War Economy”, but like in the 50s and 60s, that doesn’t require an actual hot war between great powers, and I fervently hope there won’t be one.
But in any case, despite my wishes, the world is probably entering an era of intense geopolitical competition, the likes of which haven’t been seen at least since the 1970s and probably since the 1930s. And that competition has the potential to provide a legitimating mission for the reintroduction of the kind of large-scale economic planning that many people have been looking for since 2008. We may not be able to prevent the new era of conflict, but in some ways we can take advantage of it — and in any case, we must do what needs to be done."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy
23. Great discussion on present geopolitics & economics with Ian Bremmer and Peter Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqsVR9Hl2oQ
24. Huge fan of Simu Liu.
"By virtue of his work in Shang-Chi and Kim’s Convenience, Liu has become an outspoken advocate for Asian American and Asian Canadian representation. “We’re a generation that has pretty much only known what it’s like to grow up in the West, and therefore, I feel like we have to fundamentally shift our thinking and our paradigm,” he explains. “We have to not be afraid and not continuously apologize for our own existence the way our parents did. We have to own that space. I want to show people, even if I’m doing it imperfectly, what it means to claim your voice and to be out there.”
Doing so is made especially tricky by the reality that faces many Chinese immigrant families today: the need to straddle their places in both the West and in China simultaneously. In fact, when Liu was first cast as Shang-Chi, he unwittingly found himself at the centre of a contentious conversation about Eastern and Western beauty standards, with some in China claiming that, at least by Chinese beauty standards, Liu wasn’t handsome enough for the role. And yet he never grew up feeling like he fit Western beauty standards either. Liu, like all Chinese immigrants and their children, is torn between vastly different ideologies and cultures, trying to appease both — and, due to the deepening geopolitical divisions of recent years, that gap feels as though it’s been widening."
https://sharpmagazine.com/2022/05/23/simu-liu-profile-cover-story-bfm
25. "Many of you are working crazy jobs you hate.
If you look deeply you’ll see the three deadly sins of status, money or productivity guilt are likely to blame.
Ask yourself, “is this worth it?” Would you still be doing all this work if your doctor told you that you had incurable cancer and had four weeks to live?
Probably not."
26. "Xi is in trouble because the economy is faltering so profoundly. This is not a temporary cyclical issue. Fundamentally, China cannot deliver on the promises it made its citizens. It cannot make people get rich before they get old. It is no longer the cheapest or best place to manufacture things. It’s no longer much fun because the Social Credit System is recording and prescribing every little thing you can do in China.
And, now there are lockdowns. Are the lockdowns really only for COVID? Or, are they also an easy way to keep the public from protesting as the economy goes negative and starts to raise questions as it destroys savings? It was easy for Xi to consolidate his grip on power when the Chinese economy was not just doing well but perceived to be “the future” of the world economy. But, the cracks in the social contract are now overwhelming. It changes the complexion of China’s future to the point that there may be no recovery in China even if the world economy settles down.
China is no longer the cheapest or the best place to make things. It can no longer attract foreign capital for its industry or foreign buyers for its output. China is extremely vulnerable to inflation, which is already ripping through the economy, fuelling protests, and increasing the need to prevent protests. Would a confrontation over Taiwan help Xi retain his grip on power? He may think so. Why? Because nothing allows a leader to align the citizens behind them and wrest power from challengers like war. If the Social Credit System isn’t enough to keep Xi’s opponents quiet, the mere threat of war will. The new aircraft carriers might not scare the US Navy. But they might scare China’s citizens."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/taiwan
27. China is not the brilliant well run dynamo everyone believes it to be. (Not that US or anyone is particularly well run either).
"Americans didn’t really seem to notice that slowdown. Instead, after China bounced back more quickly than other countries from the initial Covid shock, the dominant narrative became one of Chinese triumph and the eclipse of the U.S. and its rich-world allies.
Such maximalist narratives are nearly always overblown, however, and this one was no exception. In the middle of 2021, China embarked on a series of policy experiments that have brought its economy crashing back to Earth. These included an arbitrary crackdown on the consumer internet industry, an attempt to curb the real estate sector that sparked a huge crash, and a “zero-Covid” policy that threatened to trap the country in an eternal cycle of lockdowns. As a result, China’s GDP growth has now officially slowed to just 0.4%, and given China’s well-known tendency to smooth its GDP numbers, it’s likely that the true number is negative; China is probably now in a recession.
Of course, a recession doesn’t spell doom for the Chinese growth story; countries typically bounce back after recessions. (A maximalist narrative that “China is over” would be just as overblown as last year’s narratives of Chinese invincibility.) The country’s leadership is now hastily backtracking on many of the policies that triggered the slowdown. But so far the reversals don’t seem to be having the desired effect, and the picture that’s emerging is of a Chinese policy apparatus that is far less omnipotent and infallible than many in the U.S. have assumed. If China is going to right its growth ship, I think its leaders are going to need to reexamine the way that decisions have been made in the country in recent years."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-is-flailing
28. "Did a young Buffett read a lot? Yes, he certainly did. Did he spend all his time churning through annual reports, newspapers, books, and trade journals enough? No. Buffett understood how to balance his stack of reading materials with a solid travel schedule. He did not expect to solve the world’s investment puzzles solely from the comfort of his desk.
He built and maintained relationships that allowed him to source and discard ideas and evolve as an investor (not to mention enrich his life). Just think about the influence that Munger had on his pivot towards quality investing."
https://neckar.substack.com/p/the-reading-obsession
29. "I’ve said before that the entire American tech industry is going through a midlife crisis at the moment, but Instagram seems to be aging the worst of anybody. For most millennials, it’s now the main way you follow life updates from friends, but it’s also a place to buy clothes and discover new restaurants, but it’s also TikTok for people who still drink White Claw, but it’s also a reality show/propaganda distribution system for influencers and celebrities, but it’s also a Snapchat-stye feed of ephemeral content, but it’s also an NFT marketplace. And somewhere in there, it connects to Facebook Messenger somehow. It’s a mess!
Now, you might say that other social networks are similarly bloated with all kinds of gizmos and hoo-has, but not actually, not really."
https://www.garbageday.email/p/building-a-new-titanic-on-the-deck
30. “First of all, the remote worker is spending consumption dollars in the local economy,” he explains. “More than that, they are also making connections with the local entrepreneurs.”
Choudhury thinks skill-sharing is one of the biggest opportunities for countries, noting that it will be important for them to try and attract the right kind of nomads who can add value to the local community. He points to the Start-Up Chile programme as an historic example. Launched in 2010, it provided visa and cash incentives for foreign entrepreneurs to spend a year in Chile developing their own start-ups and mentoring local talent. At the time, Chile had only a nascent start-up scene. A decade later, thanks to the interchange of ideas, Chilean entrepreneurs have now launched unicorns valued over $1 billion dollars, including vegan food tech company NotCo and on-demand grocery deliver app Cornershop.
“It’s a good example of how an ecosystem can be created if you invite talented foreigners into your country even for just a year,” Choudhury explains. Those who stand to gain the most from the digital nomad visas are emerging economies or smaller nations that’ve traditionally lost talent to bigger countries, he adds: “Before, companies used to be fighting for talent. Now, countries and regions are fighting for talent, too.”
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220707-the-digital-nomad-visas-luring-workers-overseas
31. This is incredibly fascinating. The Fourth Turning and how Cycles and Generations in history show where the world is going. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX1Csk2vn5A
32. "He and I had grown up in a world where $1b valuation was rarified air and you assumed that most markets were winner take most. Instead we were seeing private investors accelerate companies to — and well past — the $1b threshold, and many of these valuations growing even further in the public markets. It seemed that the outcomes were bigger than we ever anticipated and each vertical could create multiple huge winners because of market size, massive global reach, and so on.
Paraphrasing, he basically said this was “either what it looks like when ‘software eats the world’ or things had gotten overheated.”
Looking back now it’s easy to insist it’s just the latter, but I’m inclined to believe that both are true. There’s been a lot of chatter about how consumer habits were supercharged during peak pandemic and have now snapped back to normal. We forget that ‘normal’ was still pretty rapid movement to online connectivity, services and shopping. That’s not changing. At the same time, the back offices of SMBs/SMEs have started to SaaS’ify at an increasing rate. And they’re not going back either."
33. "Japan and the European Union (EU) are both engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC), either explicitly or implicitly. YCC is when a central bank engages in the price fixing — more commonly known as “manipulation” to us non-central bankers — of government bond yields. The central bank prints fiat currency, and then purchases its own bonds to artificially cap yields where they wish. Remember — when the price of the bond goes up, the yield goes down. This intervention weakens the domestic currency, ceteris paribus."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/a-samurai-a-knight-and-a-yankee-211bf975a31d
34. Very good discussion on how to use Rock, Pebble & Sand framework of project management and prioritization.
https://longform.asmartbear.com/docs/rocks-pebbles-sand
35. "It would be a lot easier if we knew in advance when our businesses would no longer be economically viable. We could plan ahead and start something new well in advance of when our businesses are going to get disrupted by something else. Since we can’t predict the future, we should plan assuming that our business may no longer exist in the near future. There are two ways to do this: get your finances in order and adopt a portfolio model of doing business.
Whether you’re an entrepreneur or an employee, it’s very likely the business that you’re involved with ten or twenty years from now won’t be the same business you’re involved in today. We shouldn’t be surprised when some outside force causes us to make a job or a business transition. It’s going to happen sometime, so be prepared for it."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/09/your-business-will-fail-eventually-heres-what-to-do-about-it
36. Very helpful stuff.
"Do want to build a brand? Go sell some software. Want to improve your brand perception? Go sell some software. Want to have a distinctive brand visual territory? Go sell some software. You see the pattern.
Some startups put the cart in front of the horse. Don’t do that. Found a company. Create a product. Get product-market fit (PMF), i.e., determine some problem you solve for some person with some product.
You don’t need a brand before you have PMF. Go get PMF. Go sell some software to prove there’s a market. Then you can start thinking about branding. Then people start to wonder about some of those brand-y questions, like who are you and what do you stand for?
In this post, I’ll use a six-point branding framework and share my thoughts on how each element applies (or doesn’t) to startups."
https://kellblog.com/2022/07/17/practical-thoughts-on-branding-for-software-startups
37. China is in bigger trouble than people think.
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1548523247825993728
38. "Traveling around the world for 6 months or so while working remotely to ride out the economic turmoil in places where their incomes maintain a higher standard of living. Ie: a quasi-temporary snowbirding.
This is most likely what will happen moving forward. People that want to maintain self-sovereign lifestyles will leverage remote work and other digital age opportunities to maintain their lifestyles. They’ll look to relocate temporarily or semi-permanently to avoid economic hardships, unfavorable policies, and live the life they want to.
The bottom line is that you cannot afford to ignore the war in Ukraine.
You can’t ignore how Russian aggression impacts fuel supplies. Or how Western nations scramble to maintain their green energy policies while lack of fuel causes their economies to implode.
These factors will impact your ability to make choices with minimized outside influence. But if you pay attention, you might be able to take action to maintain the continuity of your lifestyle."
https://dougantin.com/personal-sovereignty-the-global-economy
39. This is really really educational.
Good discussion on how the West is under siege by extremists internally. PC Progressives out of control. (not to say the nutters on Right are any better either).
Amplified by our enemies in China & Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=739KAsb0g1Q
40. Good advice.
"If there is one thing I have learned from my (almost) 59 years, it is that every crisis is an opportunity in disguise — a chance to grow. And in every way. Both personally and financially.
But to understand it, you must have the right mindset.
Indeed, it only takes a little to change everything and take full advantage of what life offers.
It all depends on how you look at things and how you look at you life."
41. "If you don’t like the idea of living in an economic technocracy where you’ll be required to rely on the services of mega-corporations to survive, there will always be places you can go to avoid this. Sure, you may have to give up familiarity, your friends, and some of the more modern services you’re used to at home, but this may be a small price to pay if you desire to live a more free existence, instead of living a shadow of one.
And if you live in the west, maybe one of the only solutions to attaining this kind of existence will be to go where these companies aren’t.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again—maybe now is the time you start taking steps towards acquiring that second passport or seeking new nations to become a resident of. It may take time—possibly years—to take the steps needed to make this happen, so the best time to get started is now."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/ownership-is-dead
42. "Conclusion and Action Items: This downturn is not going to be like any other down turn. It never is otherwise everyone would make the right choices at the right time.
If you needed a car? Wait 6 months for the delinquencies to hit the used market.
If you want a home? You should be one of the happiest people assuming you’re a cash buyer.
If you run a WiFi Business that is profitable? You’re going to see socio-economic jumps like you’ve never experienced before. In 2008-2009 it was one of the ONLYtimes in the last 20 years to jump 1-2 socioeconomic classes.
6-12 months Buys: Cars and first time homes if you have the income to support it.
High-Risk Buys: Likely around when the Fed stops hiking, which could be as early as October or as late as 2023. The key point here is that crypto/tech will price in hikes RAPIDLY. If you’ve been watching the stock market you can go back in time and check the NASDAQ after 2008-2009. Incredible gains."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/quick-market-changes-its-not-the
43. Hope this Russian army collapse happens soon. The reality is logistics really matter.
https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e
44. "To start, then, maybe McCormick will be among the cohort of multi-million-dollar one-person organizations that proliferate in the next 20 years. McCormick launched his free Substack newsletter Not Boring at the start of the pandemic and has managed, over these two and a half years, to become a man of the moment. He’s grown his audience from 400 readers in March 2020 to over 125,000 as of June 2022, raised two funds off the hype of that audience and the quality of his words, and made at least 30 investments in startups of all sizes.
And he’s done it all without the help of a full-time team. Instead, he’s tapped into a range of companies to get set up — a clunky toolbox of products and services that don’t work very well with each other but are effective and sharp on their own, and are still miles ahead of what we had access to five years ago."
https://meridian.mercury.com/packy-mccormick-one-man-show
45. Interesting experiment.
"Cabin is built by creators, for creators. On web2, creators might have made money off YouTube, TikTok, Gumroad, or Substack. On web3, the same creators might make money at Cabin.
“People underestimate the extent to which low barriers of entry to work completely change the nature of a firm,” Hillis explains to me over cups of tea, speaking quickly despite the need for caffeine. He drinks earl grey. My choice is spearmint.
“If you look at a typical company, the founders and investors own 80-90%,” he goes on. “All of the employees own the other 10-20%. It doesn't make sense. It's not who is producing most of the value. We wanted to flip that model on its head. With the DAO, the community controls 80% of the tokens; the founders and strategic partners control 20%.”
https://meridian.mercury.com/how-jonathan-hillis-cabin-became-a-dao
46. "Devotion to Heracles is the act of lifting in the gym, to get stronger. It’s venturing out into nature to conquer terrain and hunt. It’s doing these things with your friends to build cohesion and loyalty unseen in modern times. Devotion to Heracles is taking care of your own as Heracles did for the Thebans he grew up with. It’s choosing the long and unforgiving road of virtue over the easy road of comfort and excess. It’s undertaking great labors in the pursuit of the Great Work and Undying Glory.
There is no better path for the dispossessed American than the path of Heracles. These times have made us soft and weak. Americans are in dire need of labors, of exerting their will. They — as Heracles had to — must choose between the easy road of safety and comfort or the long and unforgiving road of virtue.
No American is innocent in this, we all bare responsibility for what’s come to pass. Will you take the steps to correct course and bring salvation to our people?"
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-sons-of-heracles
47. Fingers crossed. Slava Ukraini!
https://kyivindependent.com/national/what-would-a-ukrainian-counter-offensive-in-kherson-look-like
48. This is why you need to be rich, be connected, have a solid crew be trained and armed. For Freedom from the garbage being pushed by the Mainstream media & elitist Davos crowd.
"Conclusion and New Set Up: At this point the objective is clear (to us). As food prices go up and a focus on sustainability becomes more popular we’ll see people slowly justify their decisions. If it becomes socially acceptable to eat tons of bugs, the virtue signaling will kick in. They are not eating bugs because it is more affordable. They are eating bugs to “do the right thing and help the environment”
This playbook has worked for a long time. Making a new moral angle around extremism.
Up to You to Decide: As usual there is no fun in talking about the past since it doesn’t add much. The question is if this is actually part of the strategy to normalize a lower quality of life under the guise of “sustainability”. In a few years we’ll find out! You have our best guess right here already though. Normalization is part of the plan."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/slippery-slope-govt-lowering-standards
Data Volume and Sample Set Matters: Becoming a Better Venture Investor
The reality is that most venture investors and angel investors suck. They suck usually because they are arrogant or think they are smarter than you really are. It does not help that we have gone through a massive boom since 2010 and an even bigger excessive boom from 2020-2021 which has masked a lot of weakness and stupidity. So almost all early stage investors look like geniuses with the crazy good mark ups! (thank you Softbank Vision Fund & Tiger Global!). That’s changing very quickly in 2022 as the stock market and private market has imploded and the tourists have disappeared.
But I think the biggest reason that venture investors suck is because they have NOT gotten in enough repetitions to get really good.
It’s like when you meet an AI company, and they brag about how awesome their algorithm is. But then you realize how useless it is when they have NO access to data or no sample set.
The principle is relevant to being a venture investor. Like trying to do anything, you have to really suck first. Your first couple of deals are going to be terrible because you have no idea what you are doing. Add in the inflated egos coming into the VC industry, this process takes a bit longer.
For dummies like me, my 8 angel deals were complete write offs, my first 80+ deals as venture capitalist were not great. (I think I had 1 or 2 that were doing very good, the rest were meh~). My really big winners did not show up until after I learned from these. It’s like they say “There are humble investors and those that will be humbled.” It definitely helped that I did many of these investments via the accelerator program so you get pretty good feedback within 4-6 weeks working very closely with them in a 3-4 month program. This is in contrast to the much longer feedback cycles with regular seed deals. You really won’t know anything until they start growing and raising subsequent rounds and you are at arms distance most of the time. You need to do this in large numbers to finetune your radar and sense.
Now fast forward 9+ years later with over 450+ investments I’ve done and with hopefully a pretty decent track record, I can honestly say there are not that many investors out there who have my data sample set. You have to be a complete idiot (which I sometimes am) to NOT learn from this.
This sample set allows me to understand what is local maximum versus global maximum ie. what the global standard looks like. I’m able to compare all the founders I meet with what are quantitatively and qualitatively the top 10% of founders I’ve invested in and worked with. This is critical in the pre-seed and seed stage that I invest in. It allows you to compare and contrast: how does this founding team compare to the team at Shippo, Aircall, Pipefy, Manychat, RapidAPI, Embroker, Printify, Chipper Cash etc etc? It’s a great filter.
So my point is in a business as challenging and that changes as much as the venture capital business, sample set & repetition matters. You have to do MANY deals to understand what you are doing (and/or get coached & mentored by the best).
You need to love this game and be prepared to play it for a long time. Additionally, you need to approach this with a learning mindset and a large sum of humility because you will get it wrong most of the time. A great VC gets 1 big massive winner in 1 out of their 10 deal portfolio which means they are wrong 9 times out of 10.
And maybe most importantly, don’t mistake a bull market for genius! :)
Pain is Information: Embrace it
I have a tween at home and like many other parents experiencing this, it is certainly educational. I’m personally having a hard time adjusting to her growing up. I say things that unintentionally make her mad. And then she says some pretty harsh things to me as only your kid can. So painful. But this pain is helpful in the long run. It’s an indicator that I’ve messed up somewhere and that I need to fix it.
Pain can be physical or emotional. Pain is a guide. It forces you to adjust your ways or shows you something that worked well before no longer does. Nothing like thinking you are good at fighting and then get punched in the face in a fight.
It shows up in your family life. It shows up in your business life. Losing money from a deal or investment is oh so painful. These are signals that you are doing something wrong. It is a critical piece of feedback on your life’s direction and plan. Yet from our relatively cushy lives we are taught to hide from pain. To reduce it. And this is why so many of us live mediocre and unsatisfying lives.
Pain is reality. You have to Face the reality. Don’t hide from it. Dig into it. Understand why it’s happening.
A saying I’ve adopted is “Better a harsh truth, than a kind lie.” Never lie to yourself, as this just delays the pain, which just delays the inevitable which makes it even more painful later on.
When you embrace the pain and use it for the signal that it is to get better, you inevitably get stronger and better. Just like exercising at the gym or doing some very physical sport.
As the US Marine Corp motto goes:
“Pain is weakness leaving the body.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 31st, 2022
“Only those who attempt the absurd can achieve the impossible.” ― Albert Einstein
"Novel infrastructure often enables new software. We refer to each wave by its architecture advance: internet, mobile, cloud, data lake, single-page apps, containers, serverless.
At some point, startups tinker enough with the new technology to discover the applications customers value most. Then the infrastructure innovations disappear beneath the delightful application and we move onto the next wave with its own buzzwords.
Web3 will disappear just the same."
https://tomtunguz.com/web3-moniker
2. Rundown of the Dutch farmer mess.
Another typical well intentioned, badly thought out, horribly executed plan by elitist out of touch technocrats and politicians with no understanding of . Par for the course these days in the west.
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/the-dutch-farmers-revolt
3. Hmmm.......I hate the Wandering Investors apolitical view.
But I agree Hungary is a very interesting place, even though I hate Orban and his Pro-Putin stance. But I do love Budapest and Hungarians. Good case for investing in Hungarian real estate as foreigner.
4. This is fascinating. Investing in a Teak Wood Plantation.
"Teak’s core qualities are that it is resistant to termites, fire, rot and fungus. No wonder it is in such demand.
Teak’s two biggest markets are India and China, with India being the number one importer in spite of having a substantial local source of teak.
In 2014, the Burmese government started imposing drastic policies to restrict the logging, and export of teak. As Myanmar represented 75% of the export volume, this resulted in extreme tightness in the global teak market. This meant that new sources of teak had to be found, mostly stemming from plantations rather than the natural type found in Myanmar.
Latin America is now a large “producer” of teak wood, mostly driven by private businesses, with Brazil and Panama taking the top two spots. The weather and climate are perfectly adapted to teak trees.
Teak trees typically get harvested after 25 years. So when investing in a teak wood plantation, you are looking at a (very) long term investment."
5. About time.
"Hollywood has long bent over backwards to give Chinese censors what they want. Not anymore."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/media/hollywood-china-censors-box-office-intl-hnk/index.htm
6. Slava Ukraini!
"But overall, the Ukrainians are going toe-to-toe with one of the larger military powers of the world. "This small country, that didn't have an enormous army beforehand, but this one small country has been able to hold this [Russia] at bay in many cases and give up very little ground," he said.
"I don't want to appear overly optimistic here, but history is full of examples of small countries like this, who display their will and are able to hold their own," he said. "We celebrated one of them last Monday [July 4]. And I'd like to think the Ukrainians were demonstrating the same to the rest of the world, right now."
7. Shocking and sad news in Japan on the assassination of former PM Abe. RIP. He did a lot to help his country & the region.
"This post provides as good a summary of Abe’s effect on Japan as any I could write today. Basically, I identified three big things:
--Abe’s economic policies boosted corporate hiring and made it easier for mothers to work, raising labor force participation dramatically for women, young people, and the elderly.
--Abe ended Japan’s pacifist era by “reinterpreting” the constitution to allow for a more normal military; this will probably result in Japan boosting defense spending and taking an active role in helping to defend its regional allies, such as Taiwan.
--Abe dramatically expanded immigration to Japan, causing demographic shifts that will reshape Japanese society in the decades to come.
Now Abe is gone, tragically cut down by a crazed assassin’s bullet. He will be missed. But the new Japan that he built — and that the Japanese people built during his seminal years in office — will remain.
Leadership is still important in the modern world. And during the 2010s, Japan had it."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/abe-shinzo-a-retrospective
8. As always, there are so many amazing insights here from Balaji on the Network State.
It’s a must watch if you want to learn what the future will look like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa3lR78ddFk
9. "Hedge funds, banks, brokers – they are all linked, and the way they are linked is through cash and collateral flows. Across the system, cash is borrowed, assets are bought, and assets are used as collateral. It’s a three-layered system: assets, funding, collateral. Most of the time, it works smoothly but when the layers become too tightly knit, problems can cascade.
In one way, recent events in crypto help to shine more light on the events of fifteen years ago. Everyone has their pet theory of the cause behind the financial crisis: low interest rates, government housing policy, unsustainable credit demand, weak credit underwriting standards, mixed public/private mandate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, China’s accumulation of dollar reserves, failure of financial regulation, role of credit rating agencies, growth of shadow banking system, poorly designed compensation schemes, financial institution leverage, mark-to-market accounting, financial institution interconnectedness, perception of ‘too big to fail’, short-selling, and so on.
But in the time since, we’ve watched an alternative financial system evolve unfettered and it’s ended up in the same place. Maybe it’s not any individual component of the system that’s the cause; rather, instability is an inherent feature of the system."
https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-hedge-fund-the-bank-and-the-broker-481
10. "Volumes could be written about the mixed metaphors that are butchered across all of venture capital. But these two phrases are pretty straightforward. A tailwind blows in the direction you're traveling and pushes you forward. A headwind blows against you and makes the going more tough.
You can have a powerful tailwind with no good company to ride it and you can have a great company with no tailwind. When developing an investment thesis it's focused on both. But understanding the tailwind and why it's a "big deal" can help focus your efforts in evaluating the company tackling it and how well they're positioned."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/tailwinds-whats-in-a-thesis
11. "One of the more popular questions I get is, “What are characteristics of successful entrepreneurs?” Beyond basic personality attributes like passionate, opinionated, confident, resourceful, positive, and self-motivated, I like to offer an even more qualitative thought: successful entrepreneurs have often overcome a challenging life experience."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/07/09/challenging-life-experience-as-entrepreneur-characteristic
12. This is invaluable for founders and employees. Know your financial runway.
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/08/how-much-financial-runway-do-you-have
13. Tips on living the simple but very good life from someone actually doing it.
"This is how less is more, by freeing up time, money, and attention. Very important in a society that constantly is craving our time, money, and attention for its own benefit; preferable for free to monetize tirelessly with very little or no benefit to ourselves."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/reduce-everything-down-to-genius
14. "Fast forward 14 years. An eerily similar and somewhat ironic replay of the global financial crisis is unfolding in the universe of digital currencies. After the total value of all cryptocurrencies reached an apex of just under $3 trillion last November – of which Bitcoin accounted for roughly $1.3 trillion – a rolling crash of epic proportions has wiped out more than two-thirds of that digital wealth.
For crypto, however, there is no central bank standing by willing to bailout those who are caught up in the contagion. In many ways, we are observing in real-time what would have occurred on Wall Street if the concept of “too big to fail” hadn’t come to dominate our corrupt political discourse and AIG had been allowed to collapse. How will the crypto crash continue to unfold, when will it be over, and what is to be made of the assets and technologies that survive this crisis?"
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/wen-bazooka
15. I'm a fan personally. Happy user of Substack platform for my newsletter.
"Since its founding, in tandem with an industry-wide pivot toward digital subscriptions, Substack has aggressively pursued that goal, making it both a darling of the media world and a breakout star of Silicon Valley. More recently, the company has found itself on the front lines of the culture wars.
Its laissez-faire approach to content moderation, which sometimes gives voice to objectionable figures booted from other platforms, has made Substack a lightning rod in the debate over regulating free speech. But even amid bursts of negative media coverage, Substack has maintained a large and loyal user base, and there are no signs of an exodus."
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/05/substacks-founders-dive-headfirst-into-the-culture-wars
16. Fascinating.
"This simple icon — a yellow circle, two dots, a smile — retained relevancy through 50 years of cultural movements, from free love to raves to the digital revolution.
And in the process, it became a family-owned global licensing empire worth more than $500m per year. But how did it get there?"
https://thehustle.co/who-owns-the-smiley-face
17. Big user of functional mushrooms. One of the best bio hacks around for improving your cognition (ie. mental clarity) & improving your immune system.
"Plummer began taking functional mushrooms at the beginning of the pandemic and quickly noticed results. "I felt like I was protected from getting sick," he says. "My immune system was boosted. My allergies went away. I rested better."
https://www.westword.com/news/mushrooms-jake-plummer-again-health-cte-cbd-14106979
18. Very helpful to understand what the future industrial materials industry will look like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN6F53VN4lo
19. Very cool. Another Creator turned Investor. Mario has a great newsletter worth reading.
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/generalist-capital
20. "I’m trying to make the point that no matter what crisis arises, and no matter the financial or economic stress you’re currently under, your leaders will never take any of the heat for it. When life becomes unaffordable, unreasonable, or unliveable, they’ll blame foreign powers, past events, and potentially even you.
It doesn’t matter who takes the fall. As long as it’s not them.
To many, it’s a terrifying thought that our leaders are almost without exception either incompetent, asleep at the wheel, apathetic towards our needs, or at worst, blatantly corrupt. But to me, accepting these truths isn’t something to fear.
Instead, I see it as an open door.
It’s an opportunity to realise that when it really comes down to it, you’re on your own. That no matter who is to blame for the greater financial circumstances that are affecting your life, your leaders are never going to admit fault. Most likely, they’ll deflect to whatever scapegoat is convenient at the time, in an attempt to direct your anger elsewhere.
I’m here to tell you that regardless of who is to blame for the financial circumstances of the world right now, it shouldn’t really matter. All that does, is the actions you personally take to improve or enrich your own financial life."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/the-financial-mind-war
21. We need more of this. Investing in American Dynamism. And being positive sum. Great interview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jjW_SzOrsM
22. "What's the secret? Why do older founders often fare better?
Experience!
Folks in their 40s, 50s, and 60s have accumulated skills, work experience, intuition, connections, and financial resources. Older founders can "stack" these advantages when they launch their company.
In many cases, it's someone's personal network that makes the difference."
https://justinjackson.ca/old-founders
23. Good thread on why US defense of Europe is critical to also deterring China.
https://twitter.com/MMazarr/status/1546269000967065606
24. Lots of wisdom here. It's not just about money but about life and generosity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn6TJY3SNJw
25. It's going to be a rough next couple of years. Signals of massive systemic breakdown in the world.
https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1546322468524146688
26. "The re-invigoration of NATO, through enlargement and increased military capabilities, is the opposite of what Putin intended when his forces invaded Ukraine.
Instead of a divided, indecisive NATO, Russia is now economically crippled and hemmed in on all sides. Furthermore, countries in its perceived sphere of influence have used Russian aggression as the final straw to seek closer ties with the West, finally leaving Russia’s orbit.
This has revealed Russia for what it really is: a diminished power with nothing to offer except aggressive nationalism and terror."
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russian-war-crimes-in-ukraine-are-backfiring
27. Lots of really good discussion on building & his observations on what’s happening in tech and society. Marc Andreessen, investor and builder, Silicon Valley legend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJ1HfDqM7ns
28. I so love this story. Help as many people on the way up. It's the smart but also right thing to do.
https://twitter.com/kevinleeme/status/1546573149218693120
29. For any aspiring entrepreneur, this was an amazing interview. I personally learned alot. Rob Dyrdek.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGXcZwU23xM
30. The world has changed in VC. The markets evolving view on Tiger Global. Net net: probably going to be licking their wounds for a while.
https://sarharibhakti.substack.com/p/tiger-then-tiger-now
31. This is such an educational and infuriating discussion. We are run by idiotic, unserious people in Europe and the USA. We deserve better.
Lots of good ideas on how to fix our stupid energy policies and gut the war criminal Putin's economy intelligently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy8oD8WH8VE
32. Good summary of Balaji's book the Network State: with Bowtiedbull interpretation. I'm 1/3 thru the book, its worth reading.
"Conclusions: Big picture message from Balaji (our interpretation): 1) he is negative on USA global power future, 2) he is also suspicious of all the China activities given overreach potential with the Digital Yuan, 3) unsurprisingly bullish on crypto, 4) would say that the steps to a digital nation make sense - would argue that the book doesn’t provide much in terms of a step from digital to going physical ie. step 2 to step 3 and 5) grass roots bottom up is one of the better strategies for starting a digital nation."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/network-state-creating-a-country
33. "The FINRA Investor Education Foundation promotes basic diligence hygiene: learn to recognize red flags, know which questions to ask, and independently verify answers.
Over-optimistic, deceptive or fraudulent investments are over-concentrated in areas of new technology. New technologies are characterized by their uncertainty of success. This requires selling potential investors a narrative about future possibilities as opposed to visible cash flows. That is natural! By definition any novel disruptive technology lacks a track record. Investors who avoid innovative technologies altogether because of this ambiguity ignore the inevitability of change.
However, this inherently ambiguous futurism also lends itself to bad behavior."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/on-bullshit-in-investing
34. I'm actually pretty bullish on Japan but also recognize I love the place so probably VERY biased. But planning on investing in the market there.
"Now, if Japan is a small part of your global portfolio and you’re looking for a quick filter, just work out a model like you usually would for an equivalent American or European company, then take your usual investment timeline and double it to see if it still meets your hurdle rate.
As for what a perfect Japanese stock would look like, my personal preference is slow growth, no surprises, and an attractive price. The book Tree-Ring Management by Hiroshi Tsukakoshi captures this well."
https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/10-questions-with-clayton
35. Excellent tips on how to start a remote service business or even for any business. And also below: how to craft a good offer.
"For that I have 5 questions I answer to help me craft a decent offer, I call these…
Offer Components: 1) Who is it for? Ex: Life insurance companies; 2) What is the solution? Ex: get more leads; 3) What is the opportunity? Ex: Dynamic database of new families; 4) Unique mechanism? Ex: Family Finder and 5) Business model (price/terms)? Ex: Pay per lead
I completely made up the answer to the questions above, but pretend I have a service business targeting insurance companies and I help them get more leads.
Questions 1 and 2, give you the niche you target and the solution you provide. Simple enough. However, things get fuzzy after question 3.
Question 3 needs you to lay out the opportunity, why is this relevant? How is it different? We all have a process of doing things.
Question 4 literally names the process laid out in question 3. It sounds tacky, but I have cold data from sending thousands of cold outreach messages that if you have a unique mechanism, you just get more responses from prospects.
Question 5 describes your business model, and how you decide to get paid. Once you’re done with those magic 5 questions. I want you to list pains that your prospect has. The more painful the better."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-to-start-a-remote-services-business
36. You have to admit this is incredibly clever & creative for a scam.
Fake IPL Cricket league.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-62123966
37. "The only way out of this war is to ensure Russia will lose decisively. Nothing else will do the magic of a pullback by the invaders and/or a negotiated settlement that Ukraine can live with, and that includes security guarantees as well as a reconstruction package. Putin will have to feel the pain. Any other outcome will embolden him and the ongoing threats over the Baltic states will have to be taken seriously.
It will require phenomenal political will to at the very least keep NATO supporting the effort, ensuring sanctions will remain in place and apply whatever it takes to break the back of the forces that unleashed this ghastly war. The more intense this gets, the more likely it is that tensions between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine and NATO on the other will rise to seriously uncomfortable levels. To add to this is the fact that Russia is loosely partnered with China and - as we found out just yesterday - taking arms supplies from Iran. More ingredients for a deepening crisis.
But long term world stability demands it, there is no easy way out and no good reason to further strengthen and embolden the authoritarian camp. And equally important are the people of Ukraine who deserve a fair shot at the promise they were more or less given when the Soviet Union collapsed: to be a free, safe and prosperous democratic nation in Europe. To answer Yaroslava Antipina: the world is still here, trying hard to give Ukraine its best."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/its-still-on-the-war
38. Food for thought. Saylor on BTC: Its Energy & a System.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1PI7BCjopk
39. This is too bad but goes to show unit economics matter and over-scaling much too early kills companies.
Realistic Idealism: The Way to Progress
Humans are extreme: this is a fact. Good ideas are taken to its excess and become bad. Take water. We need it to live and thrive. But drink too much and it becomes toxic.
This is like many of the great movements, ideas and trends we see. Take two geopolitical trains of thought.
Idealism and Values: as exemplified by Western Europe and the rise of Woke, ESG (Environmental Sustainable Governance), the Environmental movement itself, the use of Diplomacy and Anti-war movements. Each value at core is an incredibly worthy goal for human civilization. Morals are important for a well functioning society.
2. Realism, Realpolitik & Pragmatism: as exemplified by the ossified John Mearsheimer & Russia/Chinese geopolitical moves in the last 20 years. This is a world of influence & power. You have no friends, you only have interests not allies. You look at the world in a very cold blooded and in many cases, a very effective lens.
Both do make sense. But due to the extreme edges these approaches have been pushed to, they both no longer seem to work nor make any sense to me. The idealism of Germany and most of Western Europe is what has gotten them into the mess they are in now. Being energy dependent on Russia, a country with hostile intentions, interests and values contrary to theirs. The EU & many of the NATO countries also under-invested on the military defense side too. Now due to the wake-up call of the horrible Russian invasion of Ukraine, they are scrambling to figure out a way out, way behind in the game. Idealism is great but when it meets the laws of physics and reality, idealism fails.
Yet, there is something uninspiring about the ideas of realpolitik. Values and ideals are what most people can support and fight for. Fighting for pure naked greed and self interest just makes you a mercenary. Mercenaries may be professionals but they are usually unwilling to die for a cause. Realism tends to ignore the people and values/culture pieces of humans. And it easily turns into cynicism. Very hard to motivate people to support or die for these motivations.
Most people don’t just want to fight for money or to ensure that we have cheap oil as important as both are. People are willing to fight for a true cause that is larger than themselves versus just pure self-interest. This is why we see the phenomenon of foreign ex-soldiers showing up and volunteering to fight in the Greek War of Independence in the 1820s, or the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s against the fascists and in 2022 again, joining Ukraine’s army to fight against the Russian fascists.
This is why for my life and business, I prefer the blended approach as an investor and operator. What I call realistic Idealism. I want to support and invest in mission oriented founders and companies. Ones that are creating a “vision worth fighting for.” My brilliant investor friend Jim Scheinman has written:
“We want to hear what they are planning to bring into the world that is worth all the time, effort and money required for success. We are also listening carefully if the founders are passionate about this vision. If they don’t have the passion, then they will likely give up when the going gets tough. And, the going gets tough most of the time with startups.”
Yet this needs to be combined with being pragmatic and realistic on what can be done and when. Basically having a clear plan and willingness to execute. As Thomas Edison was reported to have said:“Vision without execution is hallucination”. This is far too common in startup land. How many visionary founders have turned out to be great fundraisers but terrible managers and operators who end up destroying the business? This is actually quite endemic.
Sadly, that is where most of the liberal West (US, Canada & Western Europe) is right now, far too much on the Idealistic side. To the point that it has become ineffective or even immoral. As I paraphrase the smart folks at Doomberg, in government we have “policies driven by platitudes not physics.” This is because we have had way too much comfort and prosperity over the last 20-30 years.
We can still turn it around if we can become more serious. But sadly this may require more pain and suffering around the world before we truly wake up. The laws of physics usually catch up to us. We probably could do with a bit more realism in our way forward in Western societies.
Every Little bit Helps: The Game of Inches
I recently started volunteering at the SF-Marin Food Bank to help with packing. It’s full of volunteers who show up for a few hours to pack bags of food to give to those who need it. A wonderful community effort that has become one of the highlights of my week when I am in San Francisco. One of the things I’ve noticed is the difference in the wide range of volunteers, old people, young people, middle aged people, all working together to get something done. When there are many volunteers we get it done pretty fast. With less, it’s a longer process and exemplifies the saying “Many Hands make short work.”
The point is that every little bit of effort and help matters. This is why I love startup life, because in an early stage startup every little dollar helps. Every little bit of energy and effort really matters. There is no room for prima donnas and talk without action. Frauds who talk a big game but don’t deliver get found out quickly. This is all in comparison to large corporations where you can hide in the large size of the budgets and organization and also in the complexity and opacity.
In life this is the same thing. As long as you move forward even in small ways, it’s all that matters. The process of “Aggregation of Marginal Gains” I’ve quoted many times.
There is a famous scene from the football movie “Any Given Sunday”, where the coach Al Pacino is trying to rally his team at halftime seen right here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1yWSePMqsk
“You find out life’s this game of inches. So is football. Because in either game, life or football, the margin for error is so small -- I mean one-half a step too late, or too early, and you don’t quite make it. One-half second too slow, too fast, you don’t quite catch it.
The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They’re in every break of the game, every minute, every second.
On this team, we fight for that inch. On this team, we tear ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for that inch. We claw with our fingernails for that inch, because we know when we add up all those inches that’s gonna make the fuckin' difference between winning and losing! Between living and dying'!
I’ll tell you this: In any fight, it’s the guy who’s willing to die who’s gonna win that inch. And I know if I’m gonna have any life anymore, it’s because I’m still willing to fight and die for that inch. Because that’s what living is! The six inches in front of your face!!”
This scene was shown at a big Yahoo! Annual Sales Conference event over twelve years ago and it still gives me the chills. I watch this whenever I face inevitable setbacks or the hard times that come up in life. So what’s the point besides it being an inspiring and amazing piece of drama?
I think it relates to so many aspects of business and our life. Yes, we should want to make big moves and have lots of massive progress. But sometimes, or most of the time, it’s just about moving a few little inches forward. Every little bit you do actually matters, even if it does not feel like it at the moment. If you sustain this over a long period of time, you may be pleasantly surprised about where you end up.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 24th, 2022
“Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly.” ― Robert F. Kennedy
The answer is arrogance and naivety. But also not convinced Putin or Xi are winning either.
"It was the pandemic era of 2020-22 that broke the spell of a manageable and fixable world. When everyone started to lockdown, China completed its takeover of Hong Kong and when we came out of it Russian tanks were rolling into Ukraine. Western democracies are all deeply pre-occupied with Covid, inflation, energy conversion, populism and no longer have the spirit and capacity to fully engage with and shape a world that has now changed beyond recognition.
Democracy is no longer the winning doctrine, there’s real merit and currency in brutally ignoring all the rules and push your agenda forward while enriching yourself in the process.
In July 2022 Xi and Putin are winning. It is impossible to get the future right, but it is fair to ask today: how could we have got it so wrong?"
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/how-did-we-get-it-so-wrong-
2. Fascinating discussion on the state of the Venture Capital industry.
"Similarly, there’s no reason why a shift from home runs to doubles and triples should be bad for the VC industry. What matters is the return of a portfolio, not the return of any single investment. (I’ll do a future post about how VC portfolio returns themselves have evolved over time.)
But this kind of shift might mean that VCs need to adjust their strategies and their expectations. If returns are getting less positively skewed all across the distribution, it means that you’re going to need a larger number of successes than before. It might take 4 or 5 moderately big successes to compensate for the inevitable large number of failures, rather than 1 or 2 mega-successes.
Also, there’s the possibility that the establishment of a standardized, routinized VC ecosystem is actually discouraging talented entrepreneurs from doing truly adventurous, blue-sky exploration.
Why stake your fortune on a ???% chance of creating a totally new industry and being a $100-billionaire, when you could enter a fairly established space and have a 4% chance of being a $1-billionaire? If the difference between adventurers and gamblers is purely a matter of temperament, then this is no problem, but if America as a whole is moving toward incremental innovation, it might be a problem."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/will-vc-produce-fewer-home-runs-in
3. This guy is a right wing hack, Putin apologist and a--hole. I hate most of his biased writing, especially on the barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine (at least West is right on fighting that).
But in this case, broken clock is right twice in the day. I must agree with his view on our worthless, immoral, unserious politicians in the west who are only very slightly better than the evil CCP & Putin.
"And after two years of our prized “free world” autocrats unleashing relentless COVID-excused tyranny upon their own populations, the rules seem to be continuously changing and reoriented at a moment’s notice.
When Russia invades Ukraine, they are violating the rules-based order. However, when Western powers invade the Middle East and Africa, or subjugate their own citizens in the name of a virus, they are not violating the rules, because their hubris-fueled moral supremacy allows these powers to determine who is and is not in good standing with the “rules-based world order.”
https://dossier.substack.com/p/build-back-better-20-global-elites
4. "The warrior religion must steel itself against corruption from the inside. It’s purpose is to help it’s people survive and thrive against regime persecution, not to overthrow the government.
It exists to build outstanding men. To come to each other’s aid against a hostile regime and laws. To be an in group. Any actions carried out would be in the shadows, without risk to the religion itself, and only against existential threats. The goal is to become a people that aren’t to be fucked with, not continue to be the people relentlessly fucked with as we are today. The warrior religion exists to give men the purpose the regime wants to withhold from them, to forge a new, more resilient culture.
The warrior religion isn’t concerned with the country. It’s concerned only with the well being of its people. The country abandoned our people sometime ago."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/survival-in-the-warrior-religion-51d
5. Very interested in commodities. It’s an important part of your portfolio. Rick Rule is a legend in the space.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yj_ff56VXvw
6. The West needs to wake up & get it's Sh-t together. Our enemies in China & Russia are not resting.
"These are all just questions. But, it seems obvious that these faraway places and pursuits seem quite irrelevant to daily life in the political capitals of London and Washington DC. Most won’t connect the dots between Sunak, Svalbard, and those US Dollar Smackers let alone Digital Gold from CAR. Meanwhile, a few days ago Moscow’s Foreign Minister Lavrov said “As far as an iron curtain is concerned, it’s practically already coming into place.”
Might the new Iron Curtain be a Gold-based digital curtain rather than a physical fence with people on one side using USD Smackers and those on the other using Russian Crypto? Who would suspect given that hardly any policymakers in the West really understand crypto?
Plus, crypto has crashed! What is there to be concerned about especially given that Donald Trump and Boris Johnson (thanks to Cassidy Hutchinson and Mr. Sunak standing up for trust in government) are taking up all the bandwidth for thinking about the world? For Moscow, there may be no better time and no better way to surprise the West with a smack in the eye when they are not looking."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/sunak-svalbard-and-smackers
7. WORD! Everyone in tech, government and defense industry needs to read this.
"Whereas hard tech is a function of both innovation (zero to one) and scale (one to 100), hard power that comes from hard tech is primarily a function of scale. Thus, we must accrue additional hard power by investing in and building hard tech that scales in light of our adversaries’ increasing strength. The goal is not just to support hard tech companies that can go from zero to one, but also companies that can go from one to 100. Only through this can we create a new industrial base and renew our military might: two of the necessary backbones for continued progress and prosperity in America."
https://countdown.substack.com/p/hard-tech-and-hard-power
8. "Perhaps most important, and a lesson that the Finns have learned, is that volunteers enhance deterrence. While Ukraine was unable to deter Russia’s invasion, the impact of these volunteers in the current war may serve as a deterrent to future wars. The Baltic states have embraced this strategy. And this also has implications for deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan; China is much less likely to invade if it believes the entire population will take up arms against it and this force can actually be effective.
The defense of Kyiv demonstrated that volunteers can play an important role in maneuver and guerrilla warfare, although the latter was only minimally observed in the defense of Kyiv. Yet the impact of volunteers is likely more muted in the attrition warfare currently being waged in Ukraine’s east. With more static positions and shorter supply lines, it offers the volunteers fewer opportunities to leverage their strengths. Expect to see them organized into more traditional battalions as they were in 2014.
The war is far from over, but Ukrainian volunteers have left an indelible mark on how smaller nations fight."
https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/commentary/2022/07/05/how-volunteers-can-defeat-great-powers
9. This is always a fun & educational discussion. Not Investing Advice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBiAoChaB9Y&t=2243s
10. This is a must read for all founders. And for newbie VCs trying to learn the basics of evaluating a business.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/is-your-revenue-real
11. Super excited too see this new VC fund from my old friend Bogdan.
Go Underline Ventures!
Also bullish on the Romanian tech scene too.
12. Recent online to offline movement. So bizarre but fascinating.
The Gentleminions phenomenon.
https://melmagazine.com/en-us/story/gentleminions-tiktok-meme-ban-at-movie-theaters
13. "Russia is not the military superpower the Old West has assumed it to be and may not be able to sustain a war of attrition and occupation in Ukraine.
Russia should no longer be genuflected to; it is now revealed as a pariah state that cannot be bargained with and has far less strength in depth — economic, demographic, military, social — than previously assumed.
Russian threats to NATO have been hollow and Putin does not want to provoke the West.
It is in the West’s strategic interests that Russia is humbled in Ukraine and emerges unable to realistically threaten its neighbours.
Ukraine has the wherewithal to defeat Russia’s invasion if it can rely on the West to be the engine of recuperation and force-development that gives it a winning position in the war of attrition.
Mixed messaging from the West is likely to encourage Russia to persist, and third-party powers to continue to hedge.
Therefore:
The West should arrange itself deliberately as the supporter of Ukrainian military capacity.
If it does, then Ukraine should be able to defeat Putin’s intent for his invasion and negotiate terms for ending the conflict that are acceptable to Ukraine and leave Russia militarily and economically exhausted.
If this happens global order is enhanced and the West can concentrate on addressing the main threats of climate change and Chinese authoritarianism.
If the opposite happens, then we waste future resource for decades in defending against a Russian threat we did not need to see recover. China learns the right tactical lessons from Ukraine and the wrong strategic one. And we have little left in the locker to deal with climate change, food shortages and energy security."
https://policyexchange.org.uk/staying-power-how-ukraine-can-prevail-tactically-and-strategically
14. Looks like Coatue is doing pretty well with its big cash position.
"Laffont warned that bear markets are regularly marked by abrupt upward swings, only to get erased by a further downturn.
As a result, his firm has been cautious and holds a large cash position.
Stock moves have been highly correlated so trying to pick outliers has meant getting dragged down by the broader market.
Still, there are signs that Coatue will start placing bets — not just command premium management fees for holding onto their investors’ cash. Coatue has started to stake out — at least intellectually — bullish positions on Tesla, DoorDash, Nvidia, Snap, and others."
https://www.newcomer.co/p/folk-songs-and-stock-charts-coatue
15. For those wondering WTF is #Gentleminions?
https://www.gq.com/story/minions-rise-of-gru-gentleminions-tiktok-trend-suits-yeat
16. "Magness has become not just a successful running coach but an expert on human performance, working with everyone from NASA to Nike, and co-authoring the 2017 book Peak Performance with Brad Stulberg. What makes his new book unique—and especially useful—is that it threads the needle between the outdated outlook of “no pain, no gain” and the more contemporary model of self-care, which can easily tip into lazy self-indulgence.
He’s exploring a different, more productive way to navigate our pain that neither advocates ramming straight through it nor tries to escape it entirely. That might be the discomfort of trying to run your fastest mile, or will yourself through another hour of work, or simply use your phone less.
Whatever pain you’re trying to endure, here Magness lays out the lessons he’s learned on persevering in a more productive manner."
https://www.gq.com/story/steve-magness-do-hard-things-interview
17. Probably something to learn here. Brute forcing creative brain work is not always the best thing to do.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/math-genius-i-work-3-hours-a-day-5374412
18. For the history buff. The Dutch Military Revolution which led them to becoming a great empire.
https://twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1544868388392124417
19. It is about time. We need to bring our industrial base back to North America & away from China.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/manufacturings-made-in-america-boom-5370300
20. "Despite his many moral offenses against what the progressive would call “good,” Herakles seeks to repent for each wrong doing he does. He never ran from responsibility. At one point, he makes himself a slave for three years to makeup for a wrongful death.
Morality changes with the times and people, but nature is eternal. Nature has laid down the laws that guide peoples and species to the top of the food chain. It’s there, you just have to look for it. Progressives falsely believe they can progress themselves out of nature and in the process, have diluted the blood of heroes. You must turn from the progressive path if you see the value of the warrior religion. The warrior religion will be founded in nature, in reality, not some naive dream about how the world should be."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/on-the-diluting-of-heros-blood
21. This is a big problem that Hollywood has sold out to China & CCP.
"The movies have become a proxy for the broader rivalry forming between the US and China. I think it ultimately becomes a story of values, and what values are shipped around the world. For a hundred years, Hollywood’s movies have been considered the default global entertainment; someone once said that the movies helped turn America into “an empire by invitation,” a gravitational pull toward the country and its way of life. I think China, which sees its turn at dominating a century, wants to copy that playbook.
So there will be major implications beyond the cinema, when it comes to which heroes are elevated, what stories are told, what stories aren’t told, and ultimately how moviegoers around the world see themselves and see the people in charge."
https://www.vox.com/23196838/china-hollywood-red-carpet-schwartzel
22. My friend Hiten was talking about this back in 2018 and he was right as usual.
"With that in mind, I recently happened upon this excellent talk by Rippling founder Parker Conrad on the virtues of building “Compound Startups” (a.k.a. companies with a multi-product portfolio rather than a point solution). In the talk, Conrad explains why the “focused” approach to building a software business may be outdated, and makes a case for the strategic advantages to building a compound startup like Rippling."
23. Always a good perspective here. Net net: its ugly in growth stage phase now with the inevitable hangover from the crazy party last few years.
"- Private markets take cues from the public markets, moving from late-stage to early stage. In 2020-2021, the multiples for publicly traded companies exploded as investors valued “growth at all costs” over profitability or unit economics. Similarly, private market investors poured capital into high-growth mature companies at multiples believed to be the "new normal" of how companies would be received in the public markets.
Today, the pendulum has swung entirely back to historic averages on multiples in the public markets, and the private markets have taken the same cue on newly priced deals. A recent example is the buy-now-pay-later start-up Klarna which is reportedly preparing to raise capital at a $6.5B valuation ($1.6B in reported annual revenues) –, a more than 85% discount to the last valuation of $45B."
https://ventureunlocked.substack.com/p/whats-happening-in-growth-stage-vc
24. "That means, in part, acting thoughtfully but with the utmost effort, understanding that war is more bar fight than chess game. Or, to put it in the simpler words of Jim Malone, Eliot Ness’s counselor in The Untouchables, “You wanna know how to get Capone? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That’s the Chicago way! And that’s how you get Capone.”
Al Capone is an apt analogy for what the West confronts in Russia: a particularly noxious mix of Mafia mentality, hypernationalist ideology, and totalitarian technique. Elegance is not the Russian way, and it cannot be our way. This is the light in which one should measure the accomplishments of NATO’s recent gathering in Madrid."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/madrid-nato-summit-2022-russia-ukraine/661494
25. "The bottom line is that emerging fund managers have indeed an edge compared to established VCs in terms of fund performance. On the other hand, as with most investment opportunities, greater upside also means a greater risk. Therefore any investor looking to back successful new firms ultimately needs to be able to assess whether the managers of such VC funds have the ecosystem connections and unique insights to deliver on their investment thesis."
26. "That said, founders also need to lower their expectations—about the amount of money they can raise, the price at which they can do it and the amount of time they’ll need to complete a round. Rounds are going to occur further apart, and fundraising processes are going to take longer to complete until the market changes again. And make no mistake, the market will change again, because that’s how cycles work. They go down, they go up.
Despite the doom and gloom, there’s money available for good startups who tell good stories to good investors. That’s harder to do now than it was, but it may also lead to bigger and better things. Fundraising has never been a sure thing. It just felt that way based on the press coverage and the stories you probably heard from other founders. The current market is just reminding us of that."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-big-contradiction-at-the-heart-of-the-tech-downturn
27. One aspect of the ongoing gray war between China and the USA. We need to learn faster here.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshuaSteinman/status/1544810885117399040
28. This was a monstrously insightful interview with the far-seeing Balaji Srinavasan. If u want to understand what the future might look like, this is worth checking out. It’s a MUST watch/listen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV5SqIm5e90
29. A great rebuttal to realist theorist Mearsheimer who is completely wrong & clueless on Ukraine. He describes a reality that does not exist & has deluded isolationist Americans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlB-pRqdyBg
30. Always fun and I learned alot as always. All in Podcast is on fire today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8-rydueTzg
31. We should ban TikTok as its a tool for dumbing us down. China and CCP are the enemy & we need to realize we are at war already, a quiet gray war.
"The tip of China’s propaganda spear is TikTok, which has a direct connection to the midbrain of a billion people, including nearly every U.S. teenager and half their parents. Facebook is the most powerful espionage vehicle ever created, and now China commands the most powerful propaganda tool. Putin and the GRU can manipulate an amoral Facebook from the outside, it just takes money. It has been easy, to date, to exploit management that’s indifferent to teen depression, much less national security. But it will likely get increasingly difficult. Xi Jinping can simply pick up the phone. When he does (if he hasn’t already) the shift in TikTok’s messaging will be subtle, invisible in the details, hiding in plain sight.
What would China’s propaganda look like? It would look like us. Subtle manipulations to TikTok’s algorithm will promote the negative messages, elide the context. As with art and merchandising, propaganda isn’t about what’s in the message, but what isn’t. Specifically, nuance and who is promoting certain types of content over others."
https://www.profgalloway.com/tiktok-trojan-stallion
32. Latest interview with Peter Zeihan. Net net: next 5 years globally will be rough. It's a very good interview here if you want to know what’s happening in the geopolitical world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzipwDQBUyc
33. This sounds about right. Having done both.
https://www.chrismccann.com/essays/startup-people-vs-big-company-people
34. "But as the RUSI report makes clear, a strategic victory in this war ultimately depends on the will and determination of Western leaders. Fuelled by victories in the Donbas, a Russian narrative will develop that Moscow’s final victory is certain, and support for Ukraine is a doomed and pointless effort. This is not the case. A Russian victory in Ukraine is not inevitable, but preventing this outcome will require a pan-Western effort not far short of full wartime mobilisation, an effort which is so far not taking place.
The relentless optimism of Ukraine’s online supporters, though understandable, does not accurately reflect the strategic picture, and may instead be hindering a popular understanding of the grave challenges that lie ahead. Ukrainians are doing everything in their power to win this war, and suffering terribly in the process: but unless their sacrifice and solidarity is matched in Western capitals, it may still not be enough."
https://unherd.com/2022/07/is-russia-winning-the-war/
35. "But after a long career interacting with intelligence officers, I’ve noticed a dichotomy between senior policy makers who come up with grand visions and the “ground truth” of what is involved in the implementation to achieve said vision.
If America fails to support Ukraine all the way to victory, then other nations are unlikely to believe that they can rely on our assurances. And if they do not believe that we are reliable allies, then they are likely to chart their own courses. Which may be counter to our own interests. They could decide that they would be better off making accommodations with Moscow or Beijing. Or they could decide that the only true guarantee of sovereignty is nuclear proliferation.
Plans are important. But the ground facts will determine what can and cannot be implemented."
https://www.thebulwark.com/the-ground-truths-in-ukraine
36. Slava Ukraini!
"The arrival of HIMARS, even in such small quantities, has been much of a game-changer.
“Ukrainian forces are increasingly targeting Russian military infrastructure with indirect fire and U.S.-provided HIMARS systems deep in occupied territory,” said the Institute of the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based defense think tank, on July 4.
“The increased ability of Ukrainian forces to target critical Russian military facilities with Western-provided HIMARS demonstrates how Western military aid provides Ukraine with new and necessary military capabilities.”
Moreover, on July 7, Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council secretary Oleksiy Danilov said Ukraine currently already had a total of nine HIMARS and “similar systems,” but that Ukraine would need dozens more."
Don’t Be Sorry, Be Better
This was a quote that showed up over and over again in John Gwynne’s fantasy Bloodsworn series that features a fictional world full of viking warrior bands and angry Norse gods & creatures. Life in this world is short, brutal, violent and unforgiving of any mistakes. So whenever one of the characters screws up, their compatriots would say: “Don’t be Sorry, Be Better.”
Thankfully in our normal everyday life right now, there are not many situations that are literally life and death except for maybe in the military or in a warzone. But our monkey cave person brains still act like everything is.
For the type A individual like myself, I mentally beat myself up whenever I screw something up. Even when it’s a stupid and small trite thing. To get past this, I remind myself that every mistake is a learning & is a way for me to get smarter. In fact, if I am not making mistakes, I am probably taking the easy, comfortable route. Or not pushing myself to what I am capable of. There are big differences between honest mistakes and truly stupid avoidable mistakes. Don’t be Sorry, Be Better.”
Or when I screw up something with the various social interactions in work, business or home life. I say “Sorry” but then keep on making the same mistake or doing the same stupid thing that irritates or annoys or hurts someone’s feelings. “Sorry” actually becomes a platitude. An excuse to move on without confronting or fixing it. Now I remind myself: “Don’t be Sorry, Be Better.” And actively work on not doing it again.
I found this to be a very helpful mantra and reminder. One that has already helped improve my life recently. Hope it helps you as well.
Tolerance versus Intolerance: Setting Rules for Life
Tolerance is defined as “the ability or willingness to tolerate something, in particular the existence of opinions or behavior that one does not necessarily agree with.”
Tolerance is a very modern thing. It was not that long ago that people were killing other people over religion or skin color. Sadly this still happens in many parts of the world but in our modern society this is thankfully seen as a barbaric relic of an old age. And something that we work against happening.
You should be tolerant of other people’s religion, skin color and beliefs. In general, it’s okay to believe whatever you want as long as it does not physically hurt others. Although I should say hurting feelings don’t count here. Toughen up a bit you snowflakes. You should be tolerant of other ways of doing things. You should be tolerant of honest mistakes on your part or someone else's.
But on the other side, there are things that you cannot ever tolerate. Things like dishonesty, bad behavior like treating service workers badly, violence against your family, friends or loved ones. You have to be intolerant of immoral acts like armed robbery, rape and theft among other things.
This is why it’s important to know self defense and be armed. I believe in turning the other cheek in some situations but not here. You need to stand up to bullies. If you don’t, they are usually back again and will probably be more vicious in the next round. As the Ukrainian Prosecutor general was reported to have said about the inhuman Russian army: “To stop barbarians, we need weapons—the only language they understand.” Barbarians, and that is what many criminals are, need to be eliminated from society. The punishment should meet the severity of the crime.
I’d even add that you have to be even more intolerant of your own weaknesses. Intolerant of wasting time. Intolerant of an unhealthy and unfit body. Intolerant of a slothful and mission-less, meaningless life without impact. Intolerant of dependence on other people. Intolerant of encroachments from government and corporations on your own freedom and privacy.
It’s important to have a code and pre-set rules for your own behavior. A pre-wiring for how to react to others around you. This is the key to crafting your own beautiful life.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 17th, 2022
“You never change your life until you step out of your comfort zone; change begins at the end of your comfort zone.” ― Roy T. Bennett
This is useful for fundraising founders.
https://twitter.com/jamoses92/status/1542635532877832193
2. "I think we’re seeing the limitations of Russian power already. Clearly, Ukraine is a priority for him. Now, there will probably be a period of consolidation if he is successful in Ukraine. I was in Ukraine last week, and one thing that people were discussing is that, perhaps in the future, Putin will use Ukraine as a tool for further adventures. If he conscripts Ukrainians forcefully to the Russian army, if he uses Ukrainian industrial and military bases. It seems to be the strategy to use forces from other minorities in Russia (Chechens, South Ossetians, etc).
This has happened in the past in Russian and Soviet military history. We in Europe have lost contact with such practices that seem barbaric to us, but they are as old as Mankind; the Romans did the same. If he follows that path, it will take a while, it won’t be immediate. After a period of consolidation of two or three years, Russia could then become stronger, because it would certainly be a much larger country, including large parts of Ukraine."
https://georgiatoday.ge/bruno-macaes-on-putins-empire-ambitions-and-georgia-losing-its-way
3. This is the playbook that China & cursed CCP used to crush democracy in HK. Being used all over the world now too. Be aware.
https://mobile.twitter.com/suelinwong/status/1542634038619521026
4. "On one hand, industry giant and once prolific investor Coinbase has been tapping the brakes. Its venture arm, Coinbase Ventures, invested in just eight companies in June—including decentralized crypto custodian Entropy and crypto-focused asset manager Valkyrie —compared to 28 in March and 11 in the same period last June, dragging its second-quarter deal count lower, according to data from PitchBook. Non-fungible token marketplace OpenSea, which launched OpenSea Ventures in February, has yet to announce an investment, a spokesperson told The Information.
Others are going full steam ahead, looking to capitalize on potential winners when other competitors slow down investments. Binance Labs, for example, announced its first fund worth $500 million in late May. Since launching the fund, Binance Labs has announced one investment, an undisclosed seed round for decentralized exchange ApolloX."
5. Four decades later, the firm he and his friends founded, Susquehanna International Group, is a sprawling global company that makes billions of dollars. Yass and his team used their numerical expertise to make rapid-fire computer-driven trades in options and other securities, eventually becoming a giant middleman in the markets for stocks and other securities.
Today, Yass, 63, is one of the richest and most powerful financiers in the country.
But one crucial aspect of his ascent to stratospheric wealth has transpired out of public view. Using the same prowess that he’s applied to race tracks and options markets, Yass has taken aim at another target: his tax bill.
There, too, the winnings have been immense: at least $1 billion in tax savings over six recent years, according to ProPublica’s analysis of a trove of IRS data. During that time, Yass paid an average federal income tax rate of just 19%, far below that of comparable Wall Street traders.
Yass has devised trading strategies that reduce his tax burden but push legal boundaries. He has repeatedly drawn IRS audits, yet has continued to test the limits. Susquehanna has often gone to court to fight the government, with one multiyear audit battle ending in a costly defeat.
Yass’ low rate is particularly notable because Susquehanna, by its own description, specializes in short-term trading. Money made from such rapid trades is typically taxed at rates around 40%.
In recent years, however, Yass’ annual income has, with uncanny consistency, been made up almost entirely of income taxed at the roughly 20% rate reserved for longer-term investments.
The tax savings have contributed to an explosion in wealth for Yass, who has increasingly poured that fortune into candidates and causes on the political right. He has spent more than $100 million on election campaigns in recent years. The money has gone to everything from anti-tax advocacy and charter schools to campaigns against so-called critical race theory and for candidates who falsely say the 2020 election was stolen and seek to ban abortion."
https://www.propublica.org/article/jeff-yass-susquehanna-tiktok-tax-avoidance
6. "The collapse of 3AC in and of itself is unremarkable. A hedge fund that was previously successful executing boring but stable yielding arbitrage strategies decided to strap on leverage to accelerate returns, and paid the price. The use of borrowed funds to play the TerraUSD carry trade sealed their death sentence.
But what made the 3AC default so impactful is that it blew a whale shark-sized hole in many of the largest centralised crypto lending businesses. Due to losses on 3AC loans, many of these lending businesses have gated customer funds and become functionally insolvent. The withdrawal of credit from the crypto ecosystem has caused a generalised market crash of Bitcoin, Ether, and the whole pantheon of shitcoins. No coin has been spared.
But what’s conveniently going unmentioned by much of the media is that both centralised and decentralised lending companies / platforms had exposure to 3AC — and only the players in one of these two markets went belly up. The centralised lenders failed en masse, while their decentralised counterparts liquidated collateral and operated with no hiccups. Using the story of 3AC as the canvas, let me paint you a picture that illustrates why Lord Satoshi and Archangel Vitalik’s creations stood the test of time, and what this means for the future of crypto."
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/number-three-511f334d8fae
7. I find these videos very educational and inspirational. Building & Maintaining multiple income streams while doing it location independent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAIpGwaU9CU
8. "I also don’t get people who go to Phish concerts or collect Pokémon cards, both of which have thriving communities around them. The culture surrounding many higher-profile NFT projects, whether it be Bored Apes or Doodles or whatever else, is hyper-monetized fandom. Web3 in many circumstances may be a cynical cash grab from those at the top, but at the bottom of a pyramid are a lot of people who are at least, in part, true believers.
It makes it hard not to root for the underdog, even if the underdog is banking on a future that very well may not pan out."
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/23186695/nft-nyc-bored-apes-doodles-web3-crypto-crash
9. "It’s encouraging to see how the universe of savvy, experienced people investing in startups is increasing — and that includes creators. But as I sift through the 100th press release talking about a footballer becoming an angel investor in a startup, it’s easy to wonder how those creators and celebrities actually analyse the risks involved in the startups they back.
In that sense, a fund like Creator Ventures — with a track record and dedicated team — can be an important conduit. And it’s also just generally fun to see people with different backgrounds getting into investing — it should translate to more companies that might not have caught the eye of traditional investors getting a chance at backing."
https://sifted.eu/articles/creator-ventures-raise
10. "Reads the presentation, “We expect the market downturn to impact consumer behavior, labor markets, supply chains and more. It will be a longer recovery and while we can’t predict how long, we can advise you on ways to prepare and get through to the other side.”
In one key slide, the firm notes what startups have already been told by a wide variety of other VCs and the broader market itself, which is that investors’ focus is shifting to companies with profitability.
Writes the firm: “With the cost of capital (both debt and equity) rising, the market is signaling a strong preference for companies who can generate cash today.”
https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/24/sequoia-capital-plays-nostradamus-again
11. "Public market multiples directly impact private company valuations. Other than a brief period of time recently, it’s been this way forever. As entrepreneurs, we should understand this relationship and take it into consideration as part of our fundraising plans."
12. Great discussions here on generalist versus specialist for those in the business of creativity. Another good episode.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TZ50I--0NQ&t=970s
13. "When you lend your coins you have to trust that the service evaluated counterparty risk properly, which includes: financials of borrower, collateral requirements, custody, etc.
Your keys, your coins.
Is the return that lending services provide worth it? This is subjective and up to each person to decide."
https://www.theheldreport.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-blockfi
14. These small profiles of up and coming VCs are always fun. Li Jin of Variant Fund.
15. "Chen cited a particular Kimmel-hosted dinner where her co-founder found herself sitting with one of The Chainsmokers. “I don’t know how she does it,” said Chen, “but she’s able to have a conversation with anyone.”
And these conversations have been happening fast. In the three years since founding her early-stage fund, Kimmel has become a particularly glamorous symbol of venture’s movement toward solo general partners. Worklife Ventures, backed by limited partners including Marc Andreessen, Alexis Ohanian and Garry Tan, has claimed a seven times return over the last three years, with investments in seven unicorns, including Webflow, Tonal and Hopin.
In a few weeks, Kimmel will put her “magical” mingling power to an even higher test. She is set to open Worklife Studios, a speaking salon and creative clubhouse in Los Angeles’ Silver Lake neighborhood, on July 11. Taking over Depop’s old building, Worklife Studios will become a bricks-and-mortar manifestation of Kimmel’s own connector persona, a place where Los Angeles creatives can gather for workshops on non-fungible tokens, poetry readings or dinner parties."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/once-upon-a-time-in-brianne-kimmels-hollywood
16. A very good interview with the sober David Sacks. One of the best operators and angel investors in Silicon Valley. PayPal mafia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7zxA5oUZDw
17. This man is a true hero. Such a fan of him and World Central Kitchen.
"He’s a force of nature, with a slew of successful restaurants. There’s Minibar, a 10-seat fine-dining counter with two Michelin stars in Washington, D.C., but also Beefsteak, his vegetable-forward fast-casual chain. At various hotels, you can find his freewheeling Bazaars, with their potato espuma and “Say When” caviar service. In New York, there’s the sprawling Mercado Little Spain, a love letter to his home country. And in the next year alone, ThinkFoodGroup, Andrés’s company, is opening a New York outpost of his D.C. hot spot Zaytinya, as well as three restaurants—San Laurel, Agua Viva, and a branch of his (very good) steakhouse, Bazaar Meat— in Los Angeles.
Even so, I’ve never seen Andrés as he’s depicted in the new documentary We Feed People, directed by Ron Howard and available now on Disney+. For the last 12 years, since he founded World Central Kitchen, he has traveled the world, hopscotching from hurricane to tornado to flood to war zone, helping to make and deliver more than 70 million meals. And for the last two years, Howard’s crew has followed him.
The film shows the organization being at once extemporaneous and carefully thought out. By mobilizing existing kitchens, avoiding bureaucratic red tape, and recruiting local volunteers, WCK has been able to deliver lifesaving aid where larger institutions cannot. It takes chutzpah and an outlaw’s gumption, and the man at the center of it all—advocating, yelling, hugging, crying, and, of course, cooking and feeding—is Andrés."
https://www.hemispheresmag.com/people/hemi-q-and-a/jose-andres-central-kitchen-ukraine
18. Halfway through this documentary. Highly recommend it.
It’s about the amazing Chef Jose Andres, his story and also the story of one of my favorite charities: World Central Kitchen.
Incredibly inspiring.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eYaSwwmGl4
19. "What this investor could not have imagined is that the geeky tech analyst would one day run one of the world’s largest private-investment firms and that he would also become both a central player in a frenzied years-long global tech bubble — one driven by “unicorn” companies trading at absurd valuations — and its bursting over the past six months. The guy who started as a shy analyst would put up impressive gains for years, then suffer mind-boggling losses: $25 billion (and counting) as of June, a record figure even in the lofty world of hedge funds.
The meltdown at Coleman’s firm, named Tiger Global in a nod to his mentor, is one for the ages. “Their losses look to be the biggest in the history of hedge funds,” says one hedge-fund manager, ticking off other notable contenders for that unfortunate title. Tiger Global’s drubbing far surpasses that of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, which lost $12 billion in 2020, or Melvin Capital Management, the now-infamous target of the Redditor-led short squeeze of GameStop shares in 2021, which cost it $6.8 billion. Long Term Capital Management, the most notorious hedge-fund blowup of all time, shed a mere $4.6 billion when it almost collapsed in 1998.
Looking back, Rasmussen, the former Bain Capital analyst and current hedge-fund manager, believes that it’s easy to see how Tiger Global got into its current predicament. “They’ve just been winning, and winning, and winning,” he says. “I think one thing that happens to people who win, win, win, win, is they get overconfident, and they can’t imagine a scenario where they’re not winning.”
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/06/tiger-global-poster-child-of-the-tech-meltdown.html
20. "Both sides therefore must adapt, but, admittedly oversimplifying, the Russians are adapting into becoming more of a 20th Century army while the Ukrainians are becoming more of a 21st Century army. The Ukrainian adaption process will therefore taking longer but the prospect at the end is of a much more capable force.
Over the next few weeks we should start to get some sense of whether Ukraine can start to take the initiative and impose its own priorities on Russia rather than the other way round, and how well the Russians are able to respond to the steady improvement of Ukrainian capabilities. Should Ukrainian forces be able to create any momentum, however, then the situation could move in their favour very quickly. Can the Ukrainians win? Yes. Will the Ukrainians win? Not yet clear, but the possibility should not be dismissed."
https://samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraine-win
21. Magical Tenerife. Cannot wait to visit in the future.
https://www.hemispheresmag.com/europe/spain/tenerife/three-perfect-days-tenerife
22. This was a very interesting profile on Mark Manson, self help guru and writer and how to recover from burnout.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/mark-manson-subtle-art-of-not-giving-a-fuck.html
23. "As an acutely disillusioned conservative who lives in a Trumpy county in a blue state (Maryland), I’m used to treading water in crosscurrents. And you know what? It’s fine. It’s doable. In fact, we’ve been doing it for 246 years, we just didn’t have as many professional windbags convincing us that we’re doomed. And by the way, we are doomed if we think we are. Which is why we have to stop thinking we are.
America is not perfect, and never was during whatever imaginary period you’re romanticizing from a past that never existed. What we’ve always had going for us is that unlike plenty of other countries, we can work through that, and have. Which is not to say it’s easy work. But too many now seem to think we’re entitled to a work stoppage, which, sorry, is deeply un-American."
https://mattlabash.substack.com/p/happy-fourth-of-july
24. "This brings us to the most fundamental level of what this is about: sheer power. If the United States allowed China to seize control of Taiwan, America’s position in Asia, and hence as a global power, would tumble overnight. Its alliance structure in the East would collapse, and China would become the regional hegemon, despite its many protestations to the contrary.
If, by the same token, China were to prevail in a conflict over Taiwan, it would not just be able to cow neighbors such as Japan and South Korea (among others)—with the world’s largest navy already, it would soon control the entire western Pacific. The Chinese government, of course, doesn’t talk openly about the stakes in these terms for fear of frightening others.
But for a democracy like the United States, and indeed for its most deeply implicated allies, this is unacceptable. Smart people may differ about the wisdom of eroding strategic ambiguity around Taiwan, but with stakes this high, the public deserves a clear and open discussion of the high risks and cost and benefits of defending the island."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/24/taiwan-china-us-war-democracy-great-powers-biden
25. I dream of Italy, especially Southern Italy in this case.
https://www.hemispheresmag.com/europe/italy/amalfi-coast/three-perfect-days-amalfi-coast
26. "The role of a venture capitalist is a lot like that of a founder. You spend your days pitching, meeting with potential investors in the fund, and going over financials & term sheets. But the best part of being a career venture capitalist is meeting with founders and backing the next generation of entrepreneurs.
Some assume that VCs sit around tweeting all day and refreshing TechCrunch. However, being an investor is a full-time job. In fact, being a first-time fund manager is MORE than a full-time job.
Yeah, you read that right. Emerging fund managers have to be scrappy too. Our team is all distributed, we use no-code tools like Airtable & Notion, and automate where necessary. To get Overlooked Ventures off the ground, I had to put in my own money to get started. And so far, we haven’t paid ourselves all that much in the last year. Why? We’ve prioritized deploying capital to founders."
27. Stoicism is a powerful tool in ancient and modern times.
"To me, the proof of the philosophy and its universality is that back to back, its two most influential thinkers are someone of extreme privilege and someone of extreme powerlessness. I think it works for both in that the central tenet of the philosophy is: Focus on what you control, focus on the response to the things that are outside of your control. Do the best you can in the world within which you exist."
"How do you just wake up and deal with a world filled with difficult people? And how do you stay true to what you believe, to what you think, to your duties and obligations, when people can feel like obstructions or disincentives to what you should be doing?
And I just love that the Stoics were not just practical in terms of how do we get stuff done, but they’re like, how do you go through the world and not be bitter and angry?"
28. "The U.S. retains a remarkable array of fundamental strengths — a large and well-educated populace, a huge amount of land and natural resources, favorable geographic location, a civic culture that is far more robust than people give it credit for, a multiracial and multicultural population that is very cohesive at the local level, a welfare state that’s far more robust than people realize, top scientific and technical institutions, world-class industries, and so on.
But despite these strengths, the U.S. is in trouble, because of politics. It would be foolish not to acknowledge this. The recent string of Supreme Court decisions that is upending the political-economic status quo is not (yet) a major cause of the dysfunction, but it is a bellwether of instability, and it has served as a wake-up call for many of those who thought the political conflicts of the last 8 years were just social media hype."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/a-time-of-troubles
29. "Oil and commodity prices will not stay high forever. The West will find alternatives to Russian supply, and Russia will likely struggle to quickly divert supply elsewhere - lots of talk of energy sales to Asia, but Russia lacks the pipelines to divert gas from Europe to Asia. And it will take years for these pipelines to be built.
Sure, sanctions have not stoppped the Russian economy in its tracks. But it was never meant to - or the West always had to weigh cost to Russia against the costs to Western economies. But the sheer scale of sanctions and self sanctioning will inevitably weigh on Russia growth over the longer term, its ability to finance investment, and likely the economy will stagnate. This means higher unemployment, lower living standards, capital flight and a brain drain.
Meanwhile, the experience over the past decade or more, is of more, not less malign actions by Russia, and now with the setting of a Russia - NATO arms race, there will be more pressure in the West to crimp Russian economic capability to restrain its military rebuild. And sanctions are still one of the limited options it has at its disposal. The reality is therefore more, not less, sanctions causing ever greater harm to the Russian economy."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/sanctions-on-russia
30. "New details have emerged about Belarusians fighting for Ukraine against Russia's invasion as part of a broader struggle to free their own country from Russian domination and the rule of Moscow-backed autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.
Speaking exclusively to VOA in a Tuesday phone interview, the deputy commander of the largest pro-Ukraine Belarusian fighting force said its numbers have almost reached the size of an average Ukrainian battalion, which he said has about 450-500 troops."
31. I'm neutral on this view as many in the media are left-wing tech biz hating individuals.
But I also see alot of arrogance in tech biz leadership where founders who are great builders usually are not great people managers.
"This management style is confrontational and public-facing, and it relies on “thought leadership” expressed through tweets. The Musk School is as much about cultivating the individual executive’s brand as it is about running an actual company. Its practitioners see themselves as visionaries, and they can often point to the early success of their companies as evidence. But they also believe that the skills they perceive as having in one area are applicable elsewhere—in particular, the messy art of managing people.
This is a poor and ineffective management style that is usually only thinly disguised by the executive’s cult of personality. Still, it’s now a quite popular tactic among celebrated tech leaders of a certain type."
32. "Conclusion: If a firm like Voyager, BlockFi, Celsius etc is offering a high return of say 10%, there is no way they can sustainably meet that return *if* deposits go up. Talk about a terrible business. The more customers they attract, the harder it is to make money if the yields remain high.
Now if you’re looking at the yields today, many have fallen to 3% or so. There is just no point. You’re better off buying iBonds at 9.6% with $10,000 worth of value and if you have a decent amount of crypto, say 10BTC+, it isn’t worth risking 100% loss for a 3% return."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/blockfi-rescue-what-is-a-bailout
33. "Romans believed the “soul” was their will. They called it the ANIMUS. It was an animal-like spirit that drove them forward. Many words we have today descend from Latin counterparts. Virtue comes from the Roman Virtus, which was how the Romans described manliness. You can see that modernity has degraded the meaning of the word, but Virtus isn’t the only word effected by modernity. Inertia is another word that’s changed meaning since the time of the old Republic.
Inertia to us means to not be moving. To not change. For the Romans, to be inert is to be a coward. They believed you had to undergo labor, to do great things you had to move. You had to impose your will on the world. The coward sat on his couch all day. You — as a disciple of the warrior religion — must avoid inertia at all costs.
Being surrounded on all sides by enemies, the Romans had to become warlike people. They had to outwork and outfight their opponents. They had to be on a different level."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-metaphysical-understanding-of
34. "Empires have varying origin stories and while the Barbarian Principle may not fit all empires, it’s happened often enough to be mentioned in the historical record. The Ancient Greeks were savages compared to the more civilized Persians.
The Romans were founded by a gang who raided the nearby villages of their women in order to continue their civilization. Rome itself was later overran by barbarians after years of decadence and decay. The Barbarian Principle is almost a law of nature and something every people should think about, but don’t.
The barbarian is closer to nature than the civilized man. He understands what the civilized man never did: nature is brutal. There’s no fairness in nature. Nature only cares about who wins. And it is wolves who win wars.
The most important thing you should take away from the Barbarian Principle is this. Don’t let your fate rest in the hands of the elite. Anyway you can find a way to break the chain. Create your own small tribe and train with your friends. Live on your own terms so when and if the fall happens, you’ll be amongst the barbarian caste."
Be Like a Light Bulb: The Importance of Resting Ethic
“Most people in life are dim lights, they're on but they are not bright. Because they are trying to conserve energy. You should make a choice, you are either on or off. There is either GO time or there is relaxing time. Try to be more binary. You have more energy when it’s Go time” -Andrew “Cobra” Tate.
I love this concept. A period of Inactivity, followed by a burst of Activity. This totally in line with one of my previous posts: Work like a Lion, not a Cow: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/work-like-a-lion-not-like-a-cow
Once you see this, you cannot unsee this. This stuck with me when I heard Jackie Chan talk about how he was so influenced by Fred Astaire: frenzied dancing followed by a stillness. He followed the same principle in the many martial arts action movies he filmed. Seriously, go rewatch his movies, this becomes very clear.
In the past my calendar would be jam packed with meetings and calls and to dos. It was what I thought you were supposed to do. I used to feel guilty when I had a short or an easy and quiet day for work or for my business. I’d wonder what I am doing wrong or start to think I am not doing enough to move things forward.
But you move the business forward by brain work. When am I not thinking about the business either consciously or subconsciously? I’ve come to realize that the ultimate flex is an empty calendar as both Warren Buffett & my friend Shaan Puri point out: https://twitter.com/ShaanVP/status/1489680121015377921
Using my mood journal and reviewing my calendar schedules, any day where I had a full calendar, I’d feel massive anxiety, and was just plain worn out. With no time to do the hard thinking and problem solving that drove the major results. Or have enough open time to troubleshoot the inevitable issues that come up. I got caught in the trap of mistaking activity for results.
Naval famously said: “Productivity is the Enemy of Creativity”
Rest is absolutely critical for high performance. Without it, it’s like revving your engine until it breaks or blows up. We’re in a new world now where our brains power everything. As the Doomberg crew calls it: “The Gig Economy for Brains.”
Naval again says: "Some of the most creative and productive people I have ever met work in multi-week bursts and then have weeks where they just idle with little done. It’s the nature of the human animal."
All-in and fully energized OR quiet and at rest. There is no in between. This is a key habit for effective work in the modern day. Don’t be a dim light.
The Moral Imperative of Every Man: Be Hard to Kill
The situation in Ukraine haunts me. Seeing a place and people I care about being invaded and attacked viciously makes me both angry and sad. The atrocities coming out of Bucha, Irpin and Mauripol (and many other places) as well the ever increasing cases of looting, torture, violence and rape by Russian soldiers against unarmed Ukrainian civilians is sickening. Yet many in Europe and USA still refuse to give up their comforts or speak up or turn a blind eye. They ask that we stop sending Ukraine weapons to give peace a chance. Naive, ignorant & “Useful Idiots.”
Yet the reason Ukrainians are fighting so hard is because they know what will happen if they lose. Russians & their pet Kadyorite Chechnyans will show up at the door with a list and they will get taken away to camps or shot in the back of the head. Their women to be treated in unspeakable horrendous ways by the Russian soldiers and security services. Yes, this is awful but this is what they do. They will bombard and destroy wholesale cities. They open up so-called Humanitarian corridors but then shell them when it’s full of people. They did this in Chechnya and they did this in Syria.
We have not experienced the horrors of a major war of aggression at our doorstep, especially in America in 70+ years, outside of 9/11 terrorist attacks. Same in Western Europe outside of some Islamic terrorist attacks. This has inured us to the horror and shock of World War 2 style war of aggression that has caused us to be in so much disbelief & shock.
What the barbarian Russian-caused horrors coming out from Ukraine should be a warning to every single one of us. That the “Tamerlane Principle” exists, Tamerlane was a medieval conqueror reported to have killed 5% of the global population at that time.
Noah Smith describes this very well:
“Tamerlane is always over the horizon, waiting to strike. There will always be conquerors waiting for the chance to conquer and pillage the soft civilized nations of the world. If you think Tamerlane is ancient history, just look up Pol Pot, Joseph Kony, Hitler, etc. This is a recurrent phenomenon. The only thing that can protect people against the Tamerlanes of the world is a strong, economically prosperous, well-organized nation state.”
There is an excellent Richard Grenier quote that should remind all of us fortunate people not on the frontlines that "People Sleep Peacefully in Their Beds at Night Only Because Rough Men Stand Ready to Do Violence on Their Behalf"
This is why it’s important to support Ukraine by sending them as many weapons as possible so they can defend themselves and eject the Russian army out of their territory. Force is only language Putin and his cronies understand. Let’s be frank, force & power is what everyone understands. This is something we have forgotten due to our dulled senses from too much comfort and prosperity. Ukraine literally is the bulwark of democracy and the free world. They are buying the West time with their blood, so all of us have to get tougher and prepare.
Or even better said in the excellent Batman Begins movie: "Like you I was forced to learn there are those who are without decency, who must be fought without hesitation, without pity."
This is also why at the personal level it’s even more critical to be “Physically Fit & Financially Lit.” You need to be healthy and in good physical shape Ie. be able to run without being out of breath. You need to train in some useful martial art like boxing or Muay Thai Kickboxing or Mixed Martial Art. Definitely learn how to shoot a gun and have some basic tactical shooting. Knife fighting skills probably will not hurt either.
You definitely need to have the money and resources to protect and help your family, friends and neighbors. You need to be ready to fight back & defend your loved ones and beliefs. Maybe it will be the Russians, maybe the CCP Chinese, or just the ever growing number of desperate violent criminals in America. Maybe it’s a nutty extremist on the Right or the Left. Either way the world has become a much more dangerous place. Just look at the crazy murder rates in America over the last 2 years starting in 2020. I don’t like it but it’s the new reality.
As much as we want to believe that someone will come save you, why take that chance? In what is turning out to be a tumultuous “Raging Twenties”, better to be safe than sorry. You have to be prepared and become your own “First Responder” for your family. You need to become “A Rough Man (or Woman) ready to Do Violence on those who will try to harm you & your loved ones.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 10th, 2022
“There is only one thing that makes a dream impossible to achieve: the fear of failure.”
― Paulo Coelho
"The American Dream used to stand for a job with a loyal employer, homeownership (often accompanied by a white picket fence), and your own set of wheels. The pandemic has given Americans the Great Resignation, a housing market that won’t stop appreciating and a used-car and gas price crisis amid 40-year-high inflation.
Maybe the villas of Portugal or beaches of Greece would be more appealing—or at least warmer. If you're one of the ultra-wealthy, leaving your pool and hot tub behind for such a life seems to increasingly beckon.
As life in America becomes more stressful and expensive, U.S. citizens have been investing in a “Golden Visa,” a program in which purchasing a second home in a different country entitles buyers to a second passport or a pathway to citizenship."
2. This is important to understand. Zeihan has been right more than wrong. Global economy and Geopolitics in time of deGlobalization & Depopulation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI4mDQeo9eE
3. "The character is a familiar type for Pitt—likable, flawed, a little eccentric—and he plays the part with an easy charm and self-effacing humor that evokes some of his other recent roles, like Cliff Booth in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. To Quentin Tarantino, who directed Pitt in that role, as well as in Inglourious Basterds, Pitt’s shape-shifting as an actor is evidence of a kind of screen presence we just don’t see much anymore.
“He suggests an older-style movie star,” Tarantino tells me over the phone. “He’s really good-looking. He’s also really masculine and he’s also really hip; he gets the joke.… But the thing that only the directors that work with Brad and the actors that act opposite him really know, what he’s so incredibly talented at, is his ability to really understand the scene. He might not be able to articulate it, but he has an instinctive understanding about it.”
What Pitt exudes, Tarantino says, is a rare timelessness. “He’s one of the last remaining big-screen movie stars,” the director tells me, equating his star quality with that of Paul Newman, Robert Redford, and Steve McQueen. “It’s just a different breed of man. And frankly, I don’t think you can describe exactly what that is because it’s like describing starshine."
https://www.gq.com/story/brad-pitt-august-cover-profile
4. This thread is a good one on the future of the geopolitical world. I also agree Dalio is wrong on China's rise and USA's fall (despite an incompetent political class & elite).
https://twitter.com/wolf_vukovic/status/1540378141612421121
5. Thread on energy being life. Civilized life. Worthy reminder.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1540663889804857344
6. This here is one of the best actors around. Cillian is masterful in the final season of "Peaky Blinders." Very good interview.
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/culture/article/cillian-murphy-interview-2022
7. “I’ve always felt like an outsider,” Isaac says. He is talking about the characters he feels drawn to as an actor—how they, too, are often outsiders, people grappling with their place in their world. “Literally, and then emotionally, psychologically. I always felt like I was observing life and not actually experiencing it. There was a lot of guilt with that sometimes—feeling like I was a vulture of my own life.”
https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/a39520165/oscar-isaac-interview-moon-knight-star-wars
8. "While the details of Parallel’s financial struggles are unique to the company, in many ways its plight is emblematic of the broader cannabis industry. Even as the weed market continues to boom as legalization spreads rapidly across the country — sales are projected to hit $32 billion this year, more than doubling since 2019, according to New Frontier Data — most companies continue to hemorrhage money and stock prices have collapsed over the last year. The continued federal illegality of marijuana means that companies face sky-high taxes, steep barriers to access capital and stiff competition from the entrenched illicit market.
“The challenge with cannabis is that it’s a very capital intensive industry … especially [building a] vertically integrated [and multi-state company] like Parallel,” said Neil Kaufman, a corporate cannabis attorney based in New York. "[Parallel] had that classic challenge of needing a lot of money and taking longer than they had planned to get to cash flow positive.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/12/weed-wrigley-lawsuit-00036864
9. This seems pretty BS but if you are a big Corp this does actually make sense.
"As the CEO of Lemonade learned, companies that are granted color trademarks often go to great lengths to enforce them in court — and competitors often challenge their right to monopolize certain hues."
https://thehustle.co/can-a-corporation-trademark-a-color
10. "I heard one I hadn’t heard before: the founder acts as a shock absorber for the startup.
The more I think about this, the more I like it. A shock absorber is defined as “something that serves to reduce or mitigate the worst effects of an unwelcome occurrence or experience.” In startupland, high highs and low lows are a regular occurrence. While thoughtful transparency of the good and bad is often the right approach, it does need to be modulated and presented with the appropriate commentary."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/06/25/founder-as-shock-absorber-for-the-startup
11."Once you've identified the thing you want (e.g. "participating in this thing called the internet") then you create a list of risks that you'll want to minimize. The best example of this came recently in a conversation I had with someone who was choosing between two different jobs with the long-term intention of becoming a founder. He could either work at a seed-stage startup or a later-stage company.
If he lets short-term time frames determine his definition of success then he would solve for things like comfort and compensation. But the natural selection of time is always long-term. In the long-term how will time impact the outcome of your decisions?
When you prioritize the long-term outcome of success as a startup founder you start to identify key risks that you can allow your short-term decisions to help de-risk your experience in the future. The most common risks to a new startup founder? Product-market fit. Co-founder risk. Hiring risk. The ability to sell. The ability to fundraise.
So what can you do with your decision today to de-risk your outcome tomorrow?"
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-natural-selection-of-time
12. "Unlike arrangements made behind closed doors, decentralized decision-making allows for community members to partake in the governance of an organization by creating and voting on policy proposals that lead to outcomes desired by the people. With the right catalysts, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations — DAOs — have proven that strangers across the globe can coordinate in a trust-less, democratic way to align on the strategic steps that best fit the needs and goals of many organizations. While decentralization itself remains an experiment, it is gaining traction as the fairest approach to organizational decision-making today.
The need for decentralized versus centralized structures exists on an ever-swinging pendulum dependent on the conditions and variables of certain time periods. In our history, centralized decision-making has led to some of the greatest feats of mankind, however, today’s conditions press us to turn back to decentralization as the model that fosters the restructuring needed to build back a better world and a more sustainable future."
13. "The global balance of power is underwritten by U.S. military supremacy, which is in turn based on maintaining a very large and technologically advanced military that can, among other things, field overwhelming airpower. The advanced weapons systems that U.S. military might depends on in turn depend on wide-ranging and complex global supply chains. The high domestic political cost of losing U.S. soldiers abroad further reinforces the U.S. strategy of technological supremacy overwhelming opponents with minimum U.S. casualties.
Whether or not the U.S. is able to ramp up production and supply during a crisis is thus a key factor that determines its ability to maintain the global balance of power. The U.S. military is not designed to fight wars without missiles, planes, and computers.
Intervention in conflicts like the one in Ukraine, or in future conflicts in Taiwan, the Korean peninsula, or Iran, will require vast increases in production of both basic goods such as prepackaged food and ammunition, as well as much more complex and advanced systems like missiles and smart munitions."
14. "Just like on the Schuylkill, there are floaters lurking just below the surface of the capital markets. These are companies or hedge funds that seem to be getting along fine, until some calamitous volatility event fatally compromises their ability to remain a going concern. To the untrained eye, these zombies might have appeared to be alive and well– but they got deaded a long time ago by unsustainable business models and trading strategies. This past week witnessed the lightspeed bankruptcy / insolvency of a few high profile business and hedge funds that previously were thought to be masters of the metaverse.
Unlike the human dead, the living dead of capital markets carry their possessions with them into the river Styx, bobbing just out of sight underneath opaque waters. It is only once their souls finally succumb to their macabre reality, and market conditions force their carcasses to the surface, that these companies’ worldly possessions are unearthed — and ultimately auctioned off in a fire sale. For those intrepid living capital markets explorers who possess the resources to harvest the fruits of the dead, the capital markets zombie apocalypse is welcomed.
During the fire sale of the dead, pristine assets with solid fundamentals suddenly become inexpensive. But beware, not all assets are made equal. Many of the zombies’ possessions deserve to travel with their hosts down to the underworld. It requires the utmost discipline to separate what is irrationally cheap from what fundamentally deserves to perish. The key determining factor is always cash flow."
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/floaters-1085be6d6ffd
15. This was a fun documentary of a trip through Canada, USA and Mexico. Lots of beautiful cinematography of lovely landscapes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNpFaqupAYM
16. "So on a two to three years outlook Russia faces a collapse in export receipts, with almost no access to international financing because of sanctions and default. Meanwhile, with much of Putin’s military having been destroyed in Ukraine, he will struggle to finance military rebuild which he will be desperate to achieve given his desire to retain some kind of parity with NATO.
That means that the Putin regime will have to divert all resources away from consumption to military investment. It will all have a feel of decay circa late 70s, early 80s Soviet Union. And decay and decline is the outlook here for Putin’s Russia and a large part of that is because of today’s default."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-in-default-so-what
17. Tim Kennedy is awesome. We need more of this in America.
Great documentary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDxvDQHfrGE
18. Cannot agree with this more.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/make-russia-pay-now
19. All the journalists, analysts and amateur tacticians should listen to the expert, losing ground is not losing the war. Ex-Major General Ryan knows what he is talking about.
"George Washington lost many of his battles, and gave up territory, but kept his Continental Army alive to eventually win the war (with the help of his French allies).
So too must the Ukrainians cede ground at times to win this war. Despite their enormous courage, the Ukrainians must not be drawn into an attritional fight with a Russian Army that prefers to fight this way.
This week's events have shown again that losing territory is bad for a country at war, but losing your army is fatal.
The Ukrainians have had a terrible week. But it is not the same as them losing the war."
20. Ian Bremmer is a smart guy and one of the best geopolitical observers around. This was very educational.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO1Mojss--s
21."Just ask yourself the following: Why can't you vote on: 1) money printing, 2) interest rates, 3) taxes, 4) school curriculum for your kids and 5) war spending? Financial literacy isn’t taught in school for a reason would be our guess.
Save yourself because no one else will. Hopefully we can all agree on that!"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/media-manipulating-your-focus-current
22. Brave men, nonetheless. Foreign volunteers helping defend Ukraine from the Russian barbarian orcs. #SlavaUkraini
"The diversity of fighting forces underscored the spectrum of motivations and personalities converging—the makeshift armies were variously composed of danger junkies and sinister right-wing nationalists, shameless opportunists and good people seeking a good war. There were men like Watson with roots in Ukraine, and others, like Casey, driven by a deep humanitarian impulse.
Then there were those like Michael Young, moved by a tangle of motives that he had struggled to understand: moral outrage, a thirst for adventure, a yearning for redemption. Young’s lifelong restlessness and search for fulfillment had taken him, step by step, to the edge of a catastrophic conflict in a land far from home, and would, over the next weeks, draw him in even deeper."
https://www.gq.com/story/ukraines-last-chance-brigade
23. This is really awesome for Europe. And much needed. Plural VC: 250M Euro Founder led Fund.
https://www.ft.com/content/9e3eaca6-5949-4791-931f-7c703f796843
24. Kissinger has sold out so many small countries in his Realpolitik. Anthony Bourdain was right.
“Once you’ve been to Cambodia, you’ll never stop wanting to beat Henry Kissinger to death with your bare hands. You will never again be able to open a newspaper and read about that treacherous, prevaricating, murderous scumbag sitting down for a nice chat with Charlie Rose or attending some black-tie affair for a new glossy magazine without choking.
Witness what Henry did in Cambodia – the fruits of his genius for statesmanship – and you will never understand why he’s not sitting in the dock at The Hague next to Milošević.”
25. "Given Indonesia’s remarkable history, I am optimistic that this program can succeed. Indonesia has already partially industrialized, democratized, and then maintained steady growth despite substantial deindustrialization. And the overall growth of Southeast Asia, especially with the increasing exodus from China, has created very favorable conditions for manufacturing in the region. If any country is versatile and flexible enough to come back from deindustrialization, it’s Indonesia."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/indonesia-the-most-amazing-development
26. Congrats to my friends at Ascend Vietnam Ventures!
https://www.techinasia.com/axie-infinity-backers-fund-exceeds-50m-target
27. Overall good & interesting interview on Asian stocks. I've long been a fan of the Wandering Investor.
But his apolitical & libertarian "I don't care about politics because its not my business" is stupid (and weak) in this day and age.
You will lose money this way and you will need to take a stand eventually.
https://mailchi.mp/789ef55acce0/investing-in-asian-value-stocks
28. Turkey is so well positioned for the future except for the horrendous economic policy in place now.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkey-where-is-the-market-love
29. "As is Turkey markets are calm this morning - not rallying but at least not collapsing which likely would have been the case if Erdogan had upheld his veto.
Sense here that US Treasury officials’ visit to Turkey last week played some role also - F16 financing, Halkbank likely topics.
Erdogan remains in the game for the 23’ elections. This is not a game changer for him therein but at least it’s not a killer blow as a balance of payments crisis surely would have been.
And the big loser here is Putin. Many Turks told me that Turkey could not choose between Russia and the West, actually many said Erdogan would choose Putin. Well Erdogan did not which just shows that in the end Turkey is anchored into the West. When push comes to shove, Turks look West."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/nato-decision-a-win-for-swinn
30. Kaboom! Batch 14 represent! Congrats to Olivier Pailhes, Jonathan Anguelov & the Aircall Team.
https://medium.com/@Olivierpailhes/the-aircall-story-by-founders-da8a07d32321
31. Very much needed in Europe to say the least.
“Plural” is a new €250 million early-stage venture fund started by Ian Hogarth (formerly Songkick), Tamkivi, Hinrikus and Khaled Helioui (a former tech CEO). The fund founders say other tech founder/partners will be unveiled in due course and that they have ambitions to lead early-stage funding rounds from the earliest stages all the way up to €10 million. The band will also focus on four to five deals a year per investor, so that they can be “hands-on.”
As the Plural founders point out, less than 10% of investors in Europe are former operators, in contrast to more than half of tech investors in the U.S. This means founders miss out on the experience of other founders-turned-investors, and it’s a valid criticism."
32. I was a fan of Richard Branson, even more so now. #SlavaUkraini
"I was given the opportunity to say a few words, and wanted to convey what I think many of us in the West feel: every day, Ukrainians are fighting and dying for the entire free world. The least the rest of the world can do is to give our unwavering and unconditional support until the last Russian soldier leaves Ukrainian territory. Anything else would be defeat – not just defeat to Ukraine’s right to freely choose its own destiny, but also to the rule of law and the sovereignty of nations."
https://www.virgin.com/branson-family/richard-branson-blog/visiting-ukraine
33. Blade Runner and its sequel are great films but not so great at the economic forecast side of things. But that’s also why they call it Dystopian.
"It’s my guess that our appreciation of Blade Runner and Blade Runner 2049 will only increase in the years and decades ahead. But that increased appreciation will more likely be driven by what the films say about human interaction with AI than about the flaws of capitalism."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/-40-years-later-blade-runners-dystopian
34. Super impressed by what the EF team has done. Big fan and we need more of what they are doing across the world.
35. Always learn new things. I may not agree with everything said here but it's an important perspective & discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lrOjNsPzww
36. Easy to snipe but it’s still too early to judge right now. At same time VCs are experts at private markets not public. Crossover funds are challenging as its hard to be good at both.
"Two of Sequoia Capital’s largest bets have been cratering on the public markets — yet the firm still holds the vast majority of its original ownership positions.
If Unity and DoorDash’s share prices don’t rebound significantly, Sequoia may have missed out on more than $7 billion in returns."
Brutality Works: The “Whiplash” School of Education & Training
The movie is amazing & probably upsetting to some people. From Our Culture Magazine:
“Whiplash finds its setting in the fictional New York Shaffer Conservatory, where Terence Fletcher (J K Simmons) mentors an up-and-coming jazz band with an iron fist. He’s verbally and physically abusive, but he believes that this is necessary in order to breed greatness. In his view, mediocrity is the enemy, and it is his duty to mentor the next great jazz musician.
Andrew Neyman (Miles Teller) is accepted into Fletcher’s band as a drummer, where he is subjected to extensive abuse. At first, he seems wimpy, not driven, and forgettable. Fletcher’s methods seem to spark something inside him and Andrew endures his abuse in seething anger. Obsessed with becoming someone to be remembered, Andrew pushes himself beyond his limits.
Source: https://ourculturemag.com/2021/04/06/12-best-quotes-from-whiplash-2014
It’s quite brutal and probably shocking to people raised in the “everybody gets a trophy” environment we are in. I hate seeing this in my daughters school as it does not reflect the real world. As a quote from the movie says: “There are no two words in the English language more harmful than "good job".’
In fact this is the Chinese and Taiwanese immigrant Tiger Mom way of raising kids (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/trauma-with-a-small-t-therapy-and). It’s all negative reinforcement and shame. Some of it had definitely rubbed off on me.
My method Is to be direct. And not always in a positive way. You sometimes need to deliver the message in a hard way to get through to a founder. A startup founder by nature is overly optimistic but this can be dangerous sometimes.
It has led to Negative feedback on me in VCGuide. On one hand I get it. On the other hand, “Fcuk you, you thin skinned mental weaklings! If you can’t handle this, how are you going to handle annoyed customers, employees or the true brutality of the market?” And frankly from what I’ve seen is they usually don’t make it.
Most investor’s feedback in Silicon Valley is vapid, nonsensical & plainly not helpful. Ie. passive aggressive to the point of uselessness. Or worse they just ghost the founder instead of properly saying “NO”. It’s cowardly because they want to keep the door open in case the deal gets hot or just because they don’t want to ruffle any feathers.
But if the goal is to be of service to founders & be a true partner in their endeavor, it Does not mean always being nice or positive.
Top tier investors like Vinod Khosla, Chamath Palitpapatiya & Keith Rabois are known, respected and hated equally for saying what they think. The common theme: It certainly helps to be independently wealthy so they aren’t reliant on anyone. But their “honesty” & strong opinions are also why they are considered rare authentic individuals (whatever you think of them) in a sea of bland personality-less investors. Not saying you have to be an A—hole either. Sometimes it’s also how you deliver the message too, so there is a middle ground.
Ultimately it’s a choice. In my book, better a harsh truth than a kind lie.
Pain is Information: A Tool for Self Development & Better Self Management
I’ve been on this earth for over 48 years now and I have very few regrets. But one of my biggest regrets is not handling or managing my rage and temper better. I’ve learned at a very young age growing up in Taiwanese immigrant household to suppress my emotions. Usually negative ones.
The problem with this is when you suppress it so much, that it all erupts ferociously when you get triggered by a difficult situation. This trigger could be some rude behavior, financial challenge, broken plans or some general frustration that comes with life.
I faced a combination of all these things in 2020 and this temper erupted not once but twice during that time. The problem was that I was not by myself. I was locked in quarantine with my family for 5 months. Losing control with an adult temper is awful to see. I never hit or threatened my family & would never do that. But to my everlasting shame I did display very violent behavior around them by smashing boxes and the wall from my anger.
And the effect of this was to terrify my family to the point that my daughter has a fear of loud noises to this day. I’ve apologized a thousand times and helped her through this but nothing causes me more pain than knowing that I did this to her. And I will never allow this to happen again.
An adult and a real man manages his emotions. And I’ve grown up a lot over the last 2 years. I’ve developed tools & techniques to better manage my emotions and anger. Getting good sleep and meditation help. But a big part is not suppressing bad feelings. When I meet a challenging situation or uncomfortable feeling, I actively acknowledge it verbally. I also write it down in a journal and tell myself “I am feeling angry or sad or humiliated.”
And surprisingly it really works. Acknowledging it helps you consciously absorb and process it instead of ignoring it. Or worse suppressing it. As I’ve learned the hard way, the more you suppress your painful feelings the worse it comes out later. Better to identify and kill it in its early stages. Don’t let it build up. It’s like a debt, the longer you ignore it, the harder it is to resolve later.
Pain is information. It tells you something is wrong and that you need to fix it. So make sure when it happens, you identify it and you face it no matter how much it hurts. If you don’t, I guarantee it will hurt WAY more later.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 3rd, 2022
“Be like a duck, paddling and working very hard inside the water, but what everyone sees is a smiling and calm face.” –Manoj Arora
"This was a theme of our conversations, that if McGregor has entered a new phase in midlife – new show, new success, new marriage, new child – it’s not by grand design. He can be erratic, he says. He works by feeling. He can be accused of doing too much. I point out that for work he is constantly in front of cameras; and when he’s not acting, he and his best friend disappear for months to ride bikes and be vulnerable in front of yet more cameras.
He returns to the idea of being on a journey, regardless of the destination. In our first conversation, he told me that he and Boorman had trouble initially selling their motorcycle show to networks because they wanted it to be about an epic quest – and that was it. “We couldn’t believe the sort of ideas that people wanted to slap on top of it. To make it a TV show to them, it had to be something else. And we were adamant that the journey is enough.”
https://www.gq.com/story/ewan-mcgregor-the-jedi-returns
2. "Most people don’t think about diversification past the platitudes. I’ve had thousands of conversations on risk management in the past few years, and haven’t heard any real original thinking on the topic in that time.
If the topic is raised to an efficient market disciple, they’ll quote Markowitz “diversification is the only free lunch”, if the manager goes to Omaha each year they’ll quote Buffet “diversification is a protection against ignorance”. If the manager has really gone out of their way to read about diversification, they will bring up Ray Dalio’s famous chart on the number of securities held vs. the reduction in volatility."
https://kellysalpha.substack.com/p/youre-diversifying-wrong
3. So many truths here on why money matters. And how to get it. Tate's mindset is worth learning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nvcZaD8vQk
4. Definitely checking out this book: "Immortal King Rao."
"In Vauhini Vara’s The Immortal King Rao, the East India Company provides the historical antecedent for a system of government performed by a corporate entity known only as the Board, a tech megacorporation turned dystopian state. When the Board takes control of the world, “historians later noted that there had been plenty of historical precedent,” Vara writes. “You could go at least as far back, they said, as the British East India Company.”
https://www.vox.com/culture/23171264/immortal-king-rao-review-vauhini-vara
5. Peloton as a platform.
"Love, a former dancer, was already working with both the Nets and Adidas when she joined Peloton as a cycling instructor in 2016, but since then, her opportunities have grown significantly. She has partnered with Nissan, NARS, and massage-device maker Therabody. She’s also built her own brand, and fans can purchase $25 socks or $78 sweatpants with the Love Squad logo on her website.
She recently spent time in London hosting an upcoming Netflix dance competition. “I’ve opted into the slash generation,” she says, referring to the phenomenon of millennials with multiple income streams. “I can get a little impatient if I’m doing the exact same thing every day.
These instructors may film eight Peloton classes a week and spend hours planning workouts, creating playlists, and writing scripts for future sessions. But these days, that’s just the baseline. Having built considerable followings on social media, they’ve also become influencers, able to drive fans who admire their lifestyle to buy the items they’re hawking. They’re so sought-after, in fact, that some now have their own agents and earn a sizable portion of their income through endorsement deals and partnerships, appearing in traditional advertising and posting sponsored content.
And they hold sway over a particularly affluent audience. Peloton charges nearly $2,000 for its newest bike—and that’s before the cost of cycling shoes, weights, and a monthly subscription for classes. The Peloton bike (or lightly fictionalized versions of it) has featured prominently on shows like Emily in Paris and Curb Your Enthusiasm as a signal of wealth and privilege. Instructors benefit from that cultural cachet.”
https://time.com/6187968/peloton-instructors-money-famous
6. "The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts & ammunition production. For US to act as arsenal in defence of Ukraine, there must be a major look at the manner/scale at which US organises its industrial base"
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
7. "The next time an entrepreneur asks what it takes to be successful, consider the idea, “be single-minded long enough to get lucky.”
https://davidcummings.org/2022/06/18/be-single-minded-long-enough-to-get-lucky
8. "In fact, if you’d diversified equally across all the aforementioned assets, you’d overall be considerably up, not down. And at a time when the whole world is freaking out about an economic crisis, you would be sitting back calmly wondering what all the fuss was about.
It’s all about perspective.
In reality, it’s only people who are all-in on stocks, cash, or crypto who are feeling like it’s armageddon right now. So of course, that’s what the narrative is focusing on.
But if you’ve been paying attention, you should know not to trust the mainstream narrative by now.
So start thinking about how you can use the current economic climate to your own benefit, at a time when almost everyone else is only seeing a smouldering wreck.
If anything though, this should be another sign that if you’re not yet heavily diversified, now may be the best time to get that part of your financial house in order. Because the numbers don’t lie, and with each passing crisis it becomes increasingly obvious that it’s those who put their faith in only a few asset classes that suffer the most."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/our-money-is-burning
9. This is one of the best discussions on how to get through the upcoming tech downturn and macroeconomic downturn.
https://mobile.twitter.com/bgurley/status/1537156295362351104
10. "The fact that a technology attracts manic boom/bust capital is no reflection on the technology itself. It is a reflection on the market’s tendency towards irrationality.
This was the case with bicycles and the Internet. And it will most likely be the case with crypto.
There will be plenty of crypto businesses, and many tokens themselves, that will (and should) go bust.
But there are still plenty of great projects and great ideas out there– most notably, the fundamental idea of having a decentralized financial system.
Our traditional financial system, dominated by clueless politicians and out of touch central bankers, has been a total disaster. It is responsible for the record-high debt and record-high inflation which are disrupting the lives of literally billions of people.
Given these conditions, the decentralized financial system that cryptocurrency represents makes more sense than ever. And the fact that Bitcoin is going through another ‘down phase’ in the market cycle bears absolutely no relevance to its value whatsoever.
History is almost invariably on the side of innovation. And there’s still an abundance of innovation in crypto."
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/history-is-not-on-the-side-of-the-cryptos-grave-dancers-35604
11. "This is a foundational concept across all of finance and business. Time value of money calculations are nearly always involved when a business owner has to value a project or decide on a project to choose. Similarly, the present value of cashflows is the entire concept behind the “discounted cash flow” (DCF) method used in valuing a stock. This underpins concepts like payback period, internal rate of return, and value of business.
Time value of money is also a concept poorly understood and underutilized in the personal finance space. The decision on college should be based largely around tradeoffs using time value of money, similar to how a business decides if it is worth the cost to invest in a project."
https://effsigive.substack.com/p/time-value-of-money
12. The title says it all. This is why I don't trust any government in the world at all (granted some are worse than others). They are both evil and incompetent.
"There are no votes/voting system for interest rates or for money printing. Despite this fact republicans and democrats all fight each other online and in public. Crime begins to rise and layoffs begin. Again. The entire history written is largely due to decision you were not allowed to vote on. Please read that again. These decisions were primarily made without any of your input."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/total-incompetence-or-extreme-evil
13. This is the dumbest thing I've seen in a long time. Ad agency trying to be cool but showing they can never be so. So embarrassing.
https://www.adweek.com/agencies/publicis-chief-metaverse-officer-is-a-lion-named-leon
14. "This theme is as old as human civilization itself, and we can see many of the same extravagances and follies from the Mughal Empire in our world today.
This time is not different, and it’s why diversifying internationally makes so much sense… why having a Plan B makes so much sense."
15. For founders targeting the SMB space this is worth reading.
https://mobile.twitter.com/gokulr/status/1538702838922039296
16. "Ukraine needs a large volume of Western weapons, especially more of our advanced long-range artillery and missile systems to outgun the Russians and offset their numerical superiority. And it needs to receive those systems now."
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/ukraine-needs-more-western-weapons-now
17. Another reason that Putin and his cronies are war criminals. The massive and avoidable famine coming in much of the developing world due to his illegal war and blockade.
#SlavaUkraini
https://www.vox.com/23171151/ukraine-grain-wheat-russia-black-sea-odesa-food-crisis
18. Russia: a menace to global society.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-to-neighbours-are-worried
19. Lots to learn from Argentineans and their horrifically incompetent government. USA is going that direction.
Yet I'm a huge fan of Buenos Aires and I will be spending more time there in 2023!
"Buenos Aires is a great city if you have a WiFi income stream of about 2-5k a month, and quality of life in that case is very high. Private healthcare is great and affordable, and food & travel in the country is awesome."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-to-survive-in-a-world-of-hyperinflation
20. I'd normally be against government solution but these are so critical that it might be the only situation I'd agree with. (assuming it’s done intelligently which is not a foregone conclusion).
"Ultimately the energy and food markets are not true free markets that result in competition, but actually function as cartels that collude to fix prices in an effort to achieve geopolitical goals. That requires intervention from government.
Regulators should be aware of the bigger picture and be prepared to deal with other parts of this framework from an information and kinetic warfare perspective. We’re not dealing with “economics as usual” and we should be prepared to imaginatively deploy every available tool to disrupt these hybrid warfare strategies."
21. This is an excellent AMA done by the NIA crew. Lots of good stuff i've learned here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnLJ5MXrkWI
22. "His best hope, in pressing on with his current strategy, is that at some point, preferably quite soon, Ukraine’s Western supporters will tire of the war and its economic costs and urge Kyiv to accept some territorial compromise. Here his problem is that there is also paralysis of a different sort on the Western side. The economic costs are high, but they have already been incurred.
The commitment to Ukraine, and to ensuring that Russia does not win its war of conquest, has been made. So long as Ukraine continues to fight, and suffer the costs, then even leaders who think a compromise might at some point be necessary are holding their tongues.
The West is settling in for the long haul, looking for ways to keep Ukraine supplied with the weapons and ammunition it needs, while adjusting foreign policies to be able to concentrate on the war. The fight can be presented as a conflict between democracy and autocracy. But at its core it is also now about the future of the European security order, and if that means improving relations with autocracies, whether in urging the Saudis to pump more oil or keeping relations with China calm, then so be it."
https://samf.substack.com/p/paralysis-in-moscow
23. This is a good interview. The Wandering Investor! Contrarian investing.
https://mailchi.mp/b93f3026d62a/uranium-coal-cold-war-cannabis-investing-in-the-2020s?e=123a1c25c4
24. "The most iconic companies of the last decade were created during the Great Recession of 2008-2009: Uber, Airbnb, Whatsapp, Instagram and countless others. We expect that many of the most important companies of the coming decade will be created in the years to come.
Considering the environment, the founders will build more sound companies raising the right amount of capital at reasonable valuations, taking care of their burn, and focusing on their unit economics. Because they will face less competition, they will benefit from lower customer acquisition costs and will be more likely to dominate their category."
https://fabricegrinda.com/the-benefits-of-flexibility-and-reading-the-macro-tea-leaves-in-venture
25. Super good stuff. International founders coming to SF Bay Area, read this please.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/youre-not-from-around-these-parts
26. "Ukraine needs more than symbols, and more than weapons. Not losing is not winning, and it will take a long and deep commitment by the western world to help Ukraine both win and then heal."
https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy
27. This is a very damn good conversation.
We need to support the US military and defense industry.
But I also like the fact that they actually talked through this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK0NfL2M5L4
28. "Kasparov’s overall thesis on Russia is of course not new, he has been out there giving warnings for the last twenty years. It was good however to hear him succinctly outline in person how Putin’s agenda has always been very clear. Dictators argued Kasparov don’t ask “Why”?” but ask “Why not?” and the continuous expansion of Russia’s military adventures in former Soviet territory are the exact evidence of this approach.
The West has absolutely no other option than to ensure that Ukraine wins. Any other outcome would be devastating and unleash further conquests and instability orchestrated by the Kremlin. This week’s turbulence over Kaliningrad and Lithuania is a good example of that. Any discussion over Putin’s health are sideshows, quite likely deliberate disinformation, and irrelevant according to Kasparov. Keep our eyes on the war, arm Ukraine and ensures it wins was the conclusion: there is no other way about it."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/war-and-tech-merge
29. This is a good one. Mentally preparing for the recession.
https://ckarchive.com/b/75u7h8hkkwpq9
30. "Don Valentine, founder of Sequoia, went to a Silicon Valley bar every Wednesday and Friday to chat with engineers about the next big thing. In the world of startups, investors are the specialists in connecting people with each other.
The more interesting people we meet, the better we’ll be at our job!"
https://tremendous.blog/2022/06/23/the-power-law-part-one
31. Fascinating fellow.
"In America, which takes its uneasy and often forgetful relationship to its own empire as a mark of virtue, Luttwak’s fate was otherwise. Unlike, say, Henry Kissinger, whose chilly Germanic brain made him an influential courtier in six or eight administrations, not to mention incredibly rich—Luttwak would remain a gadfly in the corridors of power.
Where Kissinger was cold, Luttwak was hot. Where Kissinger flattered, Luttwak was abrasive, and delighted in puncturing authority. Where Kissinger was cerebral, and talked about systems, Luttwak was hot-blooded, and wanted to touch and feel the stuff that the world is made of. He was too unruly and unflattering and independent-minded to be given any real responsibility for anything. No one wants a bona fide monster as secretary of defense.
On the other hand, Luttwak was too smart, with his big 16-cylinder brain, and too energetic, and too often right, to be banished to some provincial university to teach Byzantine military history to the children of accountants and dentists. Better to keep him in Chevy Chase, and give him contracts to chase after narco-terrorists or to study Chinese expansionism to his heart’s content until he suffered a heart attack."
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/three-blind-kings-edward-luttwak
32. "One thing that the collapse of the global supply chain has taught is that the world cannot run on SAAS and software alone. It’s time to get real. That means a world where capital and talent get on their bikes and start making hard stuff."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/time-to-get-real
33. "In a recent analysis, the economics team at Goldman Sachs takes a similar view: “We are not particularly concerned about [a financial crisis] or more broadly about major financial imbalances that would need to slowly unwind in a recession because private sector balance sheets remain robust.”
Nor is GS worried that inflation and inflation expectations will stay stubbornly persistent amid rising unemployment, thus delaying monetary easing. GS: “In short, our best guess is that a recession caused by moderate overtightening would be shallow, though we could imagine it dragging on for a little longer than it would with more policy support” such as a large fiscal stimulus, which GS sees as unlikely given the probability of divided government after the upcoming midterm elections."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/-heres-what-the-likely-upcoming-us
34. "The Ukrainians have definitely bought us some time to think about all this. If Kyiv had really fallen at the end of February of this year, this would have been a very dark spring for democracies. If an extreme right-wing regime in Russia managed to destroy democracy in Ukraine that would have had effects for everyone.
Conversely, if Ukraine, despite people’s expectations, manages to hold this off, that will be a great boon to democracy. Because I think it either goes one way or the other. I don’t think there’s such a thing as stasis. So the Ukrainians have given us a chance to think. We need to realize that what the Ukrainians are doing is a very compressed example of the kind of courage that you actually need to keep a democracy going."
https://www.vox.com/2022/6/21/23165718/vox-conversations-ukraine-russia-timothy-snyder-democracy
35. I really enjoy this podcast. Glad it's back.
I disagree with much of their assessment on Ukraine. But they are right that EU/USA have been incompetent in managing their energy & pushing the sanctions & helping Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh6-PXMdmPk
36. Even though we are in Crypto winter, this is a great & relevant discussion covering parallels of Crypto Renaissance to the old Renaissance.
Excellent analogy and still bullish on the future of Crypto as the grifters, mercenaries and crooks are washed away in this downturn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=karddOiv4ZA
37. Slava Ukraini!
"Here’s what gives me hope — of the rational, constructive kind. Ukraine has reached the tipping point of having enough well-qualified and extremely motivated people: from President’s Office, to the Military, to Diplomatic Corps, to academics, to common citizens. These are the people of skill, the kind who tilt the odds of history’s poker in favor of Ukraine."
38. "Podcasting is also a more convenient medium than any visual format. It doesn’t require our full attention, so more of our day is available to podcasters. It’s not as easy to organize or sift through as print, but it’s far easier to access than video. We may be in a golden age of television, but the average household spends more than 7 minutes a day deciding what to watch on their streaming platforms.
If someone recommends a TV show, we must find out what platform it’s on, locate the app, track down the password, and then have an uninterrupted hour of screen time. In contrast, a podcast is always a few clicks away. Ease of discovery enables the proliferation of new voices."
https://www.profgalloway.com/all-ears
39. "But the concept of a beacon is not limited to purely physical signaling points. There are beacons on the web – they are people, companies, networks, blogs, podcasts, YouTube channels; anything that can direct attention to something of importance.
You must become a beacon or you are essentially at the whim of others who point attention at their discretion, perhaps shining the light on you for fleeting moments…if you’re lucky. Far better to become an arbiter of attention in your industry or niche rather than forfeit this advantage to others."
https://adamsinger.substack.com/p/become-a-beacon-or-risk-being-lost
40. Network effects go both ways. The rise and decline of Axie Infinity. Still early days for the Play to Earn pioneer though and they do have alot of cash still.
https://restofworld.org/2022/axie-infinity-hack
41. Fascinating.
"There’s no mention of it in the guide books, but the farms we passed play a central role in the global financial system. They are the source of a massive pool of savings that gets deployed right around the world. Japanese real estate, US subprime, private equity buyouts – all markets that have been financed from this pool. And sitting on top of it, commanding those flows, is a single financial institution: Norinchukin Bank."
The Self Destructive Nature of Humans: Why Smart People Do Stupid Things
This is a story you see or hear often. A super successful person in whatever field (academia, sports, politics, business, media) who seems to have it all. Wealth, fame, family or whatever is societally valued. But then suddenly out of the blue, they do something incredibly self-destructive that their reputation or career or life in general is ruined. This could be a massive business gamble, an affair, doing something borderline or even grossly illegal. Or some major socially reprehensible act.
I should also note this tends to happen in very wealthy & modern societies where we have had multiple decades of prosperity. In countries that are closer to trouble, surrounded by enemies (Israel) or recently just emerged from economic challenges or war, I am not sure you see this occur as much. Self destructive acts are luxury acts when you are far from subsistence or survival situations. Maybe when you have had too much success you feel the need to get closer to chaos so you can feel pain and feel alive.
Now at the ripe age of 48 I have even seen these self destructive situations happen to people I know, multiple times. I’ve always wondered about this. What would cause someone on the rise to do something so stupid. Why do I do this myself?
Is it arrogance? Thinking you can do no wrong. Or more likely hubris: which is defined as pride that makes the gods plot your downfall.
I can think back to my own career of the multiple times that I’ve acted out or just done/ said something plain stupid that led to my own career set backs. Easy to arrive at when you have some success and money. Very easy when you are a high flying executive at a rising tech company. Or a venture capitalist. I cringe when I think back to these moments. Teachable moments as they call it.
Maybe it’s an internal thing where you do not feel you deserve your success, so you self sabotage. Or perhaps you are genuinely unhappy despite the outside social perception of you being “successful”. The consequent self destructive act is one of subconscious self sabotage.
This happened to me multiple times, in the last year at Yahoo! where I ended up picking pointless political fights with other regional executives. Or as a VC acting out or going against my Partners or other colleagues views, requests or directives. This was definitely my situation in 2019.
What have I learned since then? The antidote to all of this is gratitude, humility and mission.
Gratitude: just being happy and present. Something I learned during the pandemic. A regular daily gratitude exercise where you recount all your blessings whether health, wealth, family and friendships is usually enough to ground you.
Humility: understand you are a work in progress and that mistakes are part of the learning process. Be okay with not knowing everything and be open to learning opportunities. Basically know that you don’t know anything. But as long as you make some small progress every day that’s all that matters. Ie. Kaizen=small incremental improvements over time.
Mission: the key goals that drive you in all aspects of your life. The vision board exercise is invaluable. And it helps to focus you on what matters. It clarifies. If the action or time does not get close to fulfilling your mission, then don’t do it.
Maybe on top of all this, the most important thing is bringing some form of active discomfort into your life like taking cold showers, martial arts training, preparing for marathons and Iron Mans or fasting. I’ve posted this quote from Tim Ferris’ before but it’s so apt.
“The more you schedule and practice discomfort deliberately, the less unplanned discomfort will throw off your life and control your life.”
This keeps you from being too comfortable and maybe will help you get closer to your base survival instincts so you don’t get complacent and do stupid things. Perhaps this is the secret hack and could be the most important act that will keep you out of trouble.