Strategic Depth & Personal Finances: Part Political Rant & Part Financial Freedom
Geography is the curse and the trap of history that few countries can escape.
If you look at the history of Russia, they have been invaded by almost everyone at least 51 times in history: endless hordes of nomad warriors like the Khazars & Pechenegs, the Vikings, the Mongols, Teutonic Knights, Swedes, Poles, Turks, France, the Germans twice, and it was done through the very flat plains of Eastern Europe which leads directly to Moscow. Basically there are no geographic barriers like mountains, forests or deep oceans to block opposing armies from marching to their major population centers. And because of this the rulers of Russia were always forced to look at “Strategic Depth” to protect themselves.
“Strategic depth” as defined on Wikipedia is a term in military literature that broadly refers to the distances between the front lines or battle sectors and the combatants' industrial core areas, capital cities, heartlands, and other key centers of population or military production.
This term is deeply ingrained in every Russian ruler and led to the expansion of the Russian empire from the 1600 to the 1900s and also to the establishment of the Soviet Union in 1917 and it’s extension to incorporate East Germany, Ukraine, the Baltic countries, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Georgia, Czech & Slovak republics & the Central Asian “Stans” where they could buffer the Russian heartlands as much territory and distance as possible. And hence Putler’s present insane obsession with Ukraine & Baltics.
For the record, this absolutely does NOT in any way remotely justify the horrific & barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine and the outright takeover of Belarus. This is putting aside the senselessness of war & the gross repudiation of international law in an unjust invasion of another sovereign country. It’s obscene, immoral & awful because we are now in the 21st century where we have supposedly advanced as a civilization and society.
There are so many ways to take over countries instead of the violence of war. You buy your way in through bribes/investments/trade deals, you use proxies, or do media/ “Black” ie. negative PR or fund opposition political parties. You don’t send in soldiers and fire bombs and missiles. It’s pure 20th century barbarism. I truly hope Ukraine continues to kick the Russian army’s ass. But having said that, we do need to understand that strategic depth drives the thinking and imperative of every Russian ruler since the beginning of their state.
You can also see the concept of “Strategic Depth” in Pakistan’s interest in Afghanistan. Their not so secret support of Taliban since the late 1990s. They view the influence and control of Afghanistan through these proxies as Strategic Depth against their arch enemy India. Probably more of a 21st century way of doing this. (not a value judgment here just an observation)
It’s an important concept to understand in relation to your own personal finance. Strategic depth can be seen from having a low cost structure and inexpensive tastes. This should be job one so you can allow your money to go further. It can also come from having capital reserves, like having enough cash on hand to cover 6-12 months of monthly expenses. This just gives you so much more leeway and freedom. At a basic level, it actually just gives you a good margin of safety in your life.
Having strategic depth in your personal financial life is important although you can take this way too far. 12 months of cash seems smart. 36 months of cash seems very extreme & probably not productive, due to the government printing machine. You are losing money due to inflation which the government reports at over 5-7%, which means it’s probably much much higher. You are better off using this money and investing in stocks, crypto, real estate or startups, assuming your timeline is far over 5 years and that prices have been knocked down so much in the last half year. Don’t think you can go too wrong here.
But assuming you just want to keep the cash and plan on buying assets during some major economic dip, this would be a damn smart move too. Hard to do timing wise though as it requires lots of discipline to leave the money sitting there without spending it on stupid stuff. Or maybe this is just my personal issue :)
The net net: keep some strategic depth in your personal finances. It’s your downside protection which is always useful in tumultuous times like the raging 2020s.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 26th, 2022
“To be without some of the things you want is an indispensable part of happiness.” —Bertrand Russell
"What’s most important to stress, however, in my opinion, is that when there is no Central Bank to backstop the market, the “bust” part of cycles always ends up happening, and as we’ve said, for a good reason. Additionally, in markets like crypto, we have daily prices for venture capital like projects, which is why cycles tend to be so brutal, both on the upside as well as the downside (can you imagine if start-ups were quoted in the stock market? How wild would their share price movements be? Well, that’s basically crypto)."
https://www.thelykeion.com/capitalism-at-work
2. "There’s a clear divide among the VC mindsets in different geographic regions. The book calls out the difference between the west coast and east coast VCs as the divide between believing in visions versus in the numbers. I’ve seen this myself as a general attitude for European VCs. If I could be so bold as to rank the willingness to believe in visions, it would look something like the following:
US VCs > European VCs
If I were to place Chinese VC on this spectrum, it would be between the two:
US VCs > Chinese VCs > European VCs"
https://lillianli.substack.com/p/the-power-law
3. I can't wait until this book comes out. This interview is a good preview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqtf-3sRTzI
4. "This preoccupation with ownership—with users building their own experience, owning their own data and I.P.—is the defining feature of the discourse surrounding NFTs and Web3. Not long ago, I asked Finn Brunton, a technology historian and scholar of all things crypto, to explain why anyone would care about this stuff, what the phenomenon represented. “It is actually rather rare and special to feel that you own something digital these days,” he replied. “You may own your computer or phone, but it is rare to own anything on it: Your music and movies are streamed, and come and go; your digital life and social life and much of the content we consume and produce is all on other people’s platforms and making money for someone else.”
Everything we do online is already financialized, in other words, but the benefits accrue to other people—large tech companies, generally. Proponents envision a transition from this renter’s economy to an ownership economy, in which our data belongs to us, a primary resource that we’re finally free to control. “There is something weird and melancholy,” Brunton said, “about how little there is to NFTs beyond the act of ownership itself.”
The Yacht Club and its owners hoped to take the idea one step further, bringing their data to life and putting it to work."
https://www.gq.com/story/bored-ape-profile
5. More on the upcoming De-globalization and the ramifications of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-cQwRil1H0
6. Everythings a business in America it seems.
"With virtually no fee caps, experts are paid what the market demands for their services — and the market for their services is very robust.
In a high-profile case with millions of dollars at stake, it’s not uncommon to have 6-10+ expert witnesses between opposing sides.
The Depp-Heard trial featured nearly a dozen expert witnesses — psychologists, surgeons, entertainment and intellectual property lawyers, forensic accountants — that Lewis estimates collectively charged $1m+."
https://thehustle.co/the-lucrative-economics-of-expert-witnesses
7. Not a fan of Schwab, WEF or the Davos crowd. Corrupt arrogant scumbags.
"Do I believe the WEF is the cover for some grand Illuminati-like conspiracy, where the attendees are convening in secret to take over the world? No.
But at the same time, do I believe the Forum is also good for the state of our planet, or acting to benefit the average person? No, I don’t.
In my opinion, the WEF is an accelerator that will achieve not much more other than to help big business gain more control over global economic activities, eventually leading to an increased concentration of wealth and power. An assembly of elites promoting some frankly terrifying ideas of increased financial controls, including the implementation of a global digital identification system, as well as programmable Central Bank Digital Currencies.
It’s a club for the powerful, making decisions for the powerful, that will benefit the powerful. And it’s happening out in the open, right in front of our very eyes."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/the-illuminated-ones
8. "The company, dual-headquartered in San Francisco and Dublin, processed $640 billion in payments last year across 50 countries. Its gross revenue, still mostly the 2% to 3% it collects on such volume, reached nearly $12 billion in 2021, according to sources with knowledge of its financials, up about 60% year over year.
Net revenue, which excludes the cut Stripe passes along to partners like Visa and Chase, reached nearly $2.5 billion. And, unusually for a unicorn that’s still growing fast, Stripe finished the year with hundreds of millions in profit on an Ebitda basis, two sources add.
“We’re not a glamorous business, just an infrastructure company that hopefully we’ll be able to compound for a long time,” says Patrick, his short cropped red hair sun-bleached after his rare week off. “The scope of the job doesn’t change that.”
9. "The most likely scenario I now foresee is that Ukraine will smartly retreat from the Donbas. They will walk, not run and force Russia to suffer extremely high costs for every inch of soil. They will counterattack from Kharkiv, and they will eventually cut the supply lines from Belgorod to the front. They will continue to degrade Russia’s offensive capabilities, and eventually, Russia’s offensive will stall, if not collapse.
Russia’s greatest weapon might be a world food crisis and inflation, but NATO is far from helpless to improve that situation. It can always give Ukraine the means to end Russia’s naval blockade of Ukraine’s remaining ports, like Odessa. The recent decision to transfer HIMARS to Ukraine suggests that NATO would trust Ukraine with long-range anti-ship systems.
There are no winners in this war (unless welcoming Finland and Sweden can count as a win for NATO) — everyone is suffering for it — but it seems increasingly likely that there will be a clear loser."
10. Very solid advice here for fundraising from VCs.
https://www.saastr.com/what-to-know-about-fundraising
11. The investing legend Druckenmiller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtMNls7O3FY
12. "Despite our best efforts to express authentically held views in a civil manner and to back those views with data, we suspect it won’t be long. The creeping incrementalism of the do-gooders who have empowered themselves to adjudicate what information is suitable for public consumption will mean ever-more topics are considered off-limits.
Soon, critiquing society’s response to climate change will be labeled another form of climate denialism, and efforts to de-platform those expressing such views will accelerate. The intoxicating power to nullify people instead of hypotheses is irresistible, and Sagan’s dark predictions will prove true.
Bad dreams, indeed."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/wide-awake
13. Lots here.
"effectively you can look at the five asset classes to decide what you should be buying: 1) real estate - from market cap it’s effectively the lowest risk if you’re buying a primary residence (forced to live somewhere), 2) bonds - unlikely applies to any of our readers as it slowly loses to inflation as these assets are handed down to the younger generation they likely buy stocks/crypto, 3) stocks - betting on long-term growth of the world economy which is rarely a bad bet, 4) Gold - unlikely becomes more popular but we’ll play along and say it maintains its market cap and 5) the highest risk with crypto where you’re betting money flows to the industry as it becomes more popular.
Flow of Funds: Before walking through these items, remember that increasing the money supply just sends the market cap up for all of these assets. If people keep the same amount of money involved in each asset class it means real estate goes up by the same *percentage* points relative to the other asset classes. The only way to get ahead in life is by finding the assets that take share - more flow of funds."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/asset-class-overview-internet-headwind
14. About time too. Nuclear power long overdue for comeback.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/why-nuclear-energy-is-on-the-verge-of-a-renaissance.html
15. These Wagner Group folks are bad, dangerous people.
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/06/1102603897/wagner-group-mercenary-russia-ukraine-war
16. "Russian President Vladimir Putin is therefore trying to turn his invasion of Ukraine into a brutal contest of wills. He’s betting his army on breaking Ukrainians’ collective will to fight on in their country. His own won’t likely break.
Fortunately, Ukraine doesn’t need it to. If Ukrainians can weather the current Russian storm and then counterattack the exhausted Russian forces they still have every chance to free their people and all their land."
https://time.com/6184437/ukraine-russian-offensive
17. This is pretty valuable for SaaS founders. Agree with much of this. This guy has been around.
https://kellblog.com/2022/06/07/saastr-europa-slides-the-top-5-mistakes-in-scale-up
18. Woohoo Batch 24. Ham Serunjogi & Chipper Cash team crushing it.
19. Unstoppable networks. A very good breakdown and discussion of various businesses like Apple.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDObsgo2amc
20. "You're never tired when you are winning." This is a smart man: lots to learn here (don’t agree with his pro-Trump view though).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgk1WU38pTc
21. "Maybe we should think more about the why. We work for economic security and relevance — meaning, even. Just as we have incorrectly conflated masculinity and toxicity, work has errantly been positioned as the enemy. Something that depletes us, a necessary evil whose taskmasters (i.e., bosses) are inherently compromised people. Yes, sometimes.
However, for most young people, I believe there are few things that can solve more problems (loneliness, stress, depression) than work. Good work. And the path to good work usually involves shitty work."
https://www.profgalloway.com/notes-on-work
22. "The public markets are struggling, and the impact of that stock market slowdown has begun to trickle into the private sector, as well. That doesn’t bode well for pre-seed biotech startups like those at the Alliance’s showcase, who now must navigate a tepid market without necessarily having clinical data—biotech’s main proof of concept."
https://dot.la/biotech-funding-2657479400/phoenix-motorcars-raises-just-10-of-planned-150m-ipo
23. Must read for emerging VC fund managers starting off or in the middle of the fundraising process.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1534182362098987011.html
24. "ESG is the new watch word for Western business. Doing the right thing, or showing you are doing the right thing is a marketing tool that business now flaunts. What bigger/better ESG story than helping Ukraine’s recovery from genocide and helping Western liberal market democracy succeed with economic development in Ukraine?
Important herein to recognise that Putin has already, thru his attack on Ukraine and various other malign actions against the West, shown he wants to attack and undermine our very system of government, and the rule of law upon which Western business has prospered."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-how-to-pay-for-the-war
25. "We have though learned from the period before February 24 that appeasement of Putin does not work. And experience after February 24 suggests that the only thing Putin actually respects is hard power. In the conduct of this war Ukraine and it’s allies have continuously crossed Putin’s red lines - in the supply of armaments, SWIFT sanctions, CBR asset freezes, NATO enlargement to Finland and Sweden, use of WMD - and Putin has always blinked.
He has proven to be a poor poker player and even worse tactician/strategist. He now has a losing hand and let’s just he realises sooner rather than later and folds."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/time-for-a-mea-culpa-from-mearsheimer
26. "Right now, the greatest obstacle to the West providing all-out military and economic support to Ukraine is our inability to imagine a new power configuration in Eastern Europe — one that would rest on the NATO’s Baltic-to-Black Sea intermarium corridor of countries closely aligned with the U.S. And as Finland and Sweden gear up to enter NATO, Europe is on the cusp of a potentially transformative geopolitical reconfiguration, much like at the end of World War I.
The defense of Ukraine is not only about national sovereignty and territorial integrity — historically, the two foundational principles of democratic governance — but ultimately about pushing Russia out of Europe, thereby ending three centuries of its imperial drive. The independence of Ukraine, and by extension of Belarus — for, once Ukraine has defended its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Minsk wouldn’t remain in Moscow’s orbit for long — would end Russia’s claim to being a key “Eurasian power in Europe.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-could-be-an-inflection-point-eu-us-west-war-russia
27. A sobering conversation. 2022 & 2023 is gonna be rough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y33G8hVxJq4
28. Still early days but it's a challenging time for Axie Infinity.
"That Axie was widely viewed primarily as a way to make money has proven a major problem for its virtual economy. The game is designed to offer ways to both earn and spend SLP within the game. Any tokens spent within the game just disappear. But play-to-earners instead cash out all SLP by selling them on crypto markets, meaning the total number of tokens increases over time. The additional supply depresses prices, in a crypto version of hyperinflation. Players are constantly hounding Sky Mavis to tweak how the game works in ways that would reduce the amount of SLP in circulation.
Even before the broader collapse of crypto, Sky Mavis struggled to address the issues with Axie’s internal economy. A financial system consisting of people all hoping to put in $1 and take out $2 can last only as long as someone else shows up believing others will come in after them with more fistfuls of cash. Once Axie began looking less profitable, its ability to draw new players decreased, making it even less profitable and setting off a vicious cycle. “Axie has just been this fascinating tale of people learning hard lessons of economics and monetary policy in microcosm,” says Doucet."
29. Druckenmiller is an investing legend. So much to learn here from the best macro global investor in the last few decades.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ
30. This is an interesting macro outlook described here to understand what’s happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5q1l3aJ-_s
31. "Is there a kind of money that is both programmable and outside money? If we were to consolidate all balance sheets in order to treat the economy as a single aggregate entity, all forms of credit would appear as both assets and liabilities, and hence would cancel. Is there a form of outside money — money that exists outside the matrix of economic relationships — while being programmable?
Once you frame the question in this way, the answer is obvious. Only crypto is money because crypto is both an asset that is not a liability and a programmable construct. Programmable gold."
https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/only-crypto-is-money-the-new-monetary
32. Lessons from Hedge Fund King Dalio.
"[If I were] to pick countries [for foreign investments], there are three questions I’d ask:
Is the country earning more than it’s spending?
Does it have internal order where people are working well with each other to be productive?
Is it at risk of being drawn into an international war?
"It made me ask myself, “How do you know you’re right?” And I developed a principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress."
https://thehustle.co/a-chat-with-ray-dalio
33. I am a fan of Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia!
"The tiny Swiss town of Zug is the perhaps unlikely home to Europe’s “crypto valley”: almost 1,000 crypto startups are based in Switzerland, and half of them are in Zug.
But it might now have a contender for the crypto crown.
Crypto startups in Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia are attracting investment from some of the world’s most sophisticated investors, like Andreessen Horowitz, Tiger and Accel."
https://sifted.eu/articles/crypto-startups-europe-balkans
34. This is a great intro to Zeihan's new book. It's grim but important reading on the future economy and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRliA6bfhLg
35. I think the opprobrium that many people hold Saudi Arabia in is off. The place is changing for the better from what I've seen being there.
"These are the games that Biden is playing. They are the same ones that every president before him since 1945 has played. No matter what he says about the Saudi regime now, it’s clear whose interests will always come out on top. At least the Biden administration is finally abandoning the pretense that things will be any different. This is a time of crisis and we need the Saudi oil. The only question is what we will pay for it."
https://www.discourseblog.com/p/the-kingdom-always-wins
36. This is really damn good. All founders should read this.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/you-keep-using-that-word
37. This is an important but disturbing discussion on the future of geopolitics. De-globalization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aK5kQ3mZddg
38. "Well, first of all, don’t assume that the price of some asset class going down means that money is “flowing” somewhere else in the economy. That just isn’t how it works.
And sometimes people will assure you that drops in asset markets don’t mean anything because no actual wealth was destroyed. But paper wealth is as “real” as wealth gets, and people whose assets get market down may cut back on spending, which affects the real economy.
Second, take wealth numbers with a grain of salt. Yes, the rich people are all actually rich, but the net worth numbers you read in the Forbes 400 or on Wikipedia are more like indicators than exact measures of how much stuff someone could buy."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/where-does-the-wealth-go-when-asset
39. For military history buffs. The Great Captain.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1538098976691572738
40. "Still, San Francisco is a place that has a knack for rebuilding, whether after literal earthquakes or in the wake of the busts that followed gold rushes going back to the 19th century. It has an extraordinary capacity to attract fortune seekers and visionaries from afar.
That’s the case with the growing cohort of frisky Gen Z startup founders who are showing up now in San Francisco, Cotopaxi backpacks and business plans in tow. For them, San Francisco’s brand as the center of the tech universe remains intact. They are more than happy to link arms with the members of San Francisco’s old guard who still believe in it, and together prove that the city can still mint tech blockbusters."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/san-francisco-is-back-sort-of-maybe
41. "The old broken business models in the financial markets are giving way to new ones just like the EP-3 improved into a P-8. This matters from a security perspective which is why the defense establishment is going to be getting even more involved in the tech sector. Why?
Because strong tech and strong economies are the keys to military superiority these days. The two go together. They always have. So, every time we have an incident in the skies you can be sure there will be more direct or indirect support for the tech sector on the ground. This recovery will be like the last - a terrifying nosedive followed by a newfound understanding of what is possible."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/nosedives-and-recoveries
42. This dude is F--ing hero!
43. "What if we could have all the great taste of cooperation without the calories of trust? That’s the promise of crypto. Whatever you need validated, you put it on the immutable blockchain, and you have ground truth.
But beware of tech bros preaching decentralization. Technology has been promising to eliminate the middleman for decades, only to present new middlemen — in this case, new actors asking you to transfer trust and wealth from one institution to theirs. Crypto enthusiasts spent 14 years and tens of billions of venture capital dollars trying to create a trustless financial system with no middlemen. Status? See above: Celsius."
It’s Okay to Be Different & Weird: But You Better Be Strong Too
There is a classic action movie called “The Accountant”, starring Ben Affleck, a story about an autistic but brilliant boy who is raised by his special forces father. Brutally trained, there is a scene when he is bullied in the new school in France. His father lectures him.
“Life is a series of choices, none of which are new. The oldest is choosing to be a victim. Or not to.
You’re different. Sooner or later “different” scares people. Victim or not, make a decision.”
It’s a pretty interesting comment. Humans are wired social creatures. Naturally oriented to protect our blood, our tribe or our race. When we meet someone different than us, we naturally distrust them or fear them. More so if you come from a homogenous society. But even in racially & culturally diverse countries like Canada, the UK and the USA among other countries this still happens. You would think being around people different than you makes you understand them better and be more tolerant. It certainly does for some people. But based on all the race-related violence that still exists in society these days it’s not a foregone conclusion.
I’ve come to the view that If you are going to be different Ie. Think or act differently, you better build a tough skin as you will be criticized, shunned , even attacked verbally or physically. As the “model minority” in my guess, you are told to just take and accept it as is.
The problem though is that if you don’t stand up for yourself, they will just keep pushing you. If you don’t fight back against bullies, you get bullied more. This is the case as an individual, an organization and a country.
This is the same with cancel culture. You don’t apologize. If you do, they just dog pile on you more. The more different, read “weird” you are, the more important it is that you have an ability to defend yourself. To be able to fight back. Actually you just need to be able to fight, period. “The best defense is a good offense.”
We’re entering a multipolar, chaotic world where the strong will try to push around the weak. We see this with China and Taiwan. We saw this in the barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine. Because Ukrainians fought back like lions, I don’t think anyone will try to push them around in the future. But I also think it happened because Putin rightfully saw the liberal West as weak, without resolve & declining. That war would not have happened if the West was seen as strong & willing to fight.
A smart country will try to get stronger. In fact, I expect an arms race and a growing defense industry everywhere as countries begin to arm themselves to make sure they can become spikey porcupines to protect themselves from bigger neighbors.
This is why at the individual level, you need to build strength & health. You need to develop fighting skills like Mixed Martial Arts, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, American boxing or kickboxing or some martial arts. In fact, add in good tactical shooting and knife fighting skills. The absolute confidence this builds in you is immense. Of course, this needs to be coupled with financial means and monetary independence.
I can tell you, the way I’m preparing my kid, no one will ever mess with her. This is the only way she will be able to be free to live the way she wants, whatever it is. However weird it is perceived to be by anyone else. To chart her own path just like I am trying to now.
We Have All the Time in the World: Living in the Present
I really enjoyed “No Time to Die”, a worthy end of the Daniel Craig James Bond era. He went down hard, saving his family and the world. Which is pretty much the best any hero can do.
I loved the testament from Jack London that the MI6 team gave him at the end.
“The function of man is to live not to exist. I shall not waste my days trying to prolong them. I shall use my time.”
The question then: are you spending time on things that really matter? Things that are worthy of the time you have here on earth. Things that are grand and society positive. Or even small things like making a stranger smile or helping alleviate some persons anguish or pain.
It’s a good reminder for me personally. Surviving and existing is not enough. We owe ourselves and our families to do more. To Live. Truly Live. Doing things of high impact.
And It’s not always just about personal happiness or pleasure, but about mission and doing hard things that make us proud. Accomplishing things. Even the attempt itself is worthy.
If you are not doing what you want, what’s stopping you? Don’t waste your precious time and get started!
As the saying in another great movie “Shawshank Redemption” goes, “Get busy Living or get Busy Dying!”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 19th, 2022
“If your ship doesn’t come in, swim out to it! “—Jonathan Winters
This is super interesting. I've long been fascinated by Uzbekistan and can't wait to visit later this year.
2. I love Monk Mode (every once in a while). Kudos to my friend Jarie Bolander
https://www.thedailymba.com/2022/05/28/entrepreneur-monk-mode
3. Another great episode of Not Investing Advice. Ad biz implosion & Snap stock destruction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVXdGycNv7M
4. This is a grim listen but deglobalization is here. How to prepare for the new world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWyhKobyM68
5. This looks like a great documentary. "Expedition Happiness."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNpFaqupAYM
6. Sounds familiar right? Happening in the USA now.
"Rampant greed and power-mongering were commonplace, tearing great rends throughout the economic and moral fibre of society. And corruption was so rife, that it had almost become expected of the political ruling class of society as a tool of governance.
The common people of Athens didn’t fare well during this time. The population was kept in line mostly through fear, with regular executions being the favoured tool of guaranteeing compliance—a punishment that was sometimes dished out for offences as trifling as cabbage theft.
Throughout history, whenever a society was experiencing such a rampant level of rot, it often led to an economic chasm between the rich and the poor. And for Athens, this fact definitely held true."
The answer:
"If inflation continues to rise—which I and many others expect it to do in the near future—it could be worth your time to consider other vessels in which to store and grow your wealth. The most obvious beneficiaries so far have been real estate, as well as food and energy commodities like oil, natural gas, wheat, and coffee."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/money-printer-goes-brrrrrrr
7. Good overview of what’s happening in the east of Ukraine. Cautiously optimistic that Russia is losing steam.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZioTavNy3c
8. Commodities super cycle is here. Metals and Mining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e99XvuY2rBY
9. "All of this has led some crypto investors to wonder if the bottom is really in; with so much "fluff" in the air, maybe there is more left to fall to Earth. In any case, it's clear that nobody has learned anything."
https://www.vice.com/en/article/88gw55/nobody-learned-anything-from-the-crypto-crash
10. "Simply way to zoom out is to just ask where the world is heading. It’s up to *you* to decide these things. That said, some easy ones we don’t see coming back any time soon include:
1) massive commutes to cities - over the next 5-10 years the companies that offer remote solutions will take the talents,
2) don’t see a world with less automation,
3) don’t see a world where people speak to robots instead of physical sales people and nurses/doctors,
4) don’t see a world where manufacturing *isn’t* dominated by tech/robots etc and
5) see a world where valuable individuals gain more and more value as low-mid skilled work can be automated away.
These are just broad strokes. We separate them based on how humans operate. Unlikely a human wants to have a robot caring after him in a hospital. On the flip side. Really doubt humans care if their coca-cola was fork lifted by a person or a robot (no human contact = easier to automate)."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/basic-finance-101-value-of-the-company
11. This is pretty good stuff. Peer group is important.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aP2eZuxshpU
12. This is a good discussion. I'm on Brent's side. We underestimate USA's strength as messed up as the country is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFuiVIvByqQ
13. Congrats Jessica Peltz-Zatulove! Awesome new VC fund.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/31/hannah-grey-debut-fund
14. Go JohnnyFD, worth watching. Minimalist living.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_r2SQiqmOMo
15. This is a pretty interesting new fund.
“I didn’t want this to be a fund that was too big, or greater than 20 million, because I can participate in many rounds. I can also invest in the very, very early stages, so I’m not trying to compete necessarily for a certain percentage of ownership. I can write relatively small checks and still be a meaningful part of the startup journey very early on,” Iyer said."
16. "There is going to be a big bull market in real stuff!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Keja23R2N7g
17. "Life in an armed compound, surrounded by your starving and desperate neighbors banging on the gates, is no happy retirement — not for anyone with a smidgen of empathy, anyway. The only worse fate is being on other side of the wall, clawing at the fence.
Retirement is a social problem, not an individual one. It is one of those parts of our world where our destines are inextricably bound together, like, say, public health. And as with public health, the attempt at converting a social, collective issue into an individual, market-based one has been an abject failure."
https://doctorow.medium.com/against-cozy-catastrophies-7ac0a62f0922
18. "Without a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, a major U.S. and Western military objective should be to provide sufficient military assistance to help Ukraine retake territory in the east and south. If the United States and the West want to shift the balance of power in Ukraine’s favor, they will need to provide Ukraine with more weapons and platforms that allow the Ukrainian military to conduct offensive operations and more effective counterattacks against dug-in Russian forces over a sustained period.
Most of these systems will require additional training and a steady supply of munitions and spare parts, which should be feasible with a protracted war. More advanced weapons and platforms will be critical to overrun entrenched Russian forces. In addition, Ukraine needs to conduct a sustained guerilla campaign behind Russian lines that involves ambushes, raids, sabotage, and subversion against Russian forces and political leaders hand-picked by Moscow to replace local Ukrainian officials."
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-ill-fated-invasion-ukraine-lessons-modern-warfare
19. "Fundraising is not a reward for the past. It’s selling a ticket to the future. You don’t earn a round. You sell it.
Therefore, traction is but one aspect of a story that you’re pitching to support how things will go—and how you fit that in is not unlike putting the legs on a stool to get it to stand up."
https://ceonyc.substack.com/p/the-legs-of-the-stool-and-why-its
20. I like this alot!
"Think of the Freedom ETF as a close relative of popular ESG funds, but instead of worrying about the environment or corporate governance, Tolle avoids investing in regimes that infringe on personal and economic freedoms."
“Freer markets have more sustainable growth. They recover faster from drawdowns and they use their capital and labor more efficiently,” Tolle says. “I always expected that they would outperform, but I didn’t expect it to play out this quickly.”
21. “That phase of the war is over,” Konaev said. “This phase is more grinding, piecemeal.” Because of the radical shift in the nature of the battlefield, the weapons on offer have to change dramatically, too."
Slava Ukraini!
22. Hubris is dangerous. Good discussion on whether the west is drawing the right conclusions from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/would-we-do-better-hubris-and-validation-in-ukraine
23. "Courage is the master of the virtues, because it makes the practice of all others possible. Inadvertently, we tend to think of courage as an attribute of the successful, but this is mistaken. We call Achilles brave not because we think he will win, but because we know he is going to die. It is the process, not the success, that deserves our respect.
Courage then is best understood as a willingness to put failure on the line. To cultivate courage is to accept an absence of surety. It is meaningful mostly when you are unlikely to succeed, and try anyway. Try and fail at enough things, and it will dawn on you: Every difficult thing you try acts as a multiplier on the rest of your knowledge and experience. He who lives without folly is not as wise as he thinks.
The too-clever world breeds critics, and laughs at failure. If you never try, you cannot fail, and in a clever sense it is an immense advantage to have done nothing."
https://simonsarris.substack.com/p/what-the-lion-knows
24. "The new global monetary system is likely going to look like Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia and other countries with commodity-backed, sound money on one side - and the west and our allies, with our “infinite” fiat, under the tutelage of rocket surgeon Neel Kashkari, on the other."
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/russia-is-returning-to-the-gold-standard
25. War for the West. Swarm versus the Horde.
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-war-for-the-future
26. "Virtue lies in giving things their proper place. To lack reason is to be inhuman. To rely on it solely is to be disembodied. This disembodied nature is the vice of the modern intellectual, in fact it separates them from past intellectuals just as it separates them from the physical world. Thinking only in the abstract, existing only in the abstract, the disembodied intellectual life becomes the destructive force of authoritarian modernism."
https://simonsarris.substack.com/p/in-praise-of-the-gods
27. "His swift move to found a defense startup—partnering with libertarian billionaire Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and executives drawn from Thiel’s spooky spy software maker Palantir—completed Luckey’s spiritual exit from left-leaning Silicon Valley. He departed physically, too. Anduril is headquartered in Costa Mesa, closer to San Diego’s military bases than the center of the metaverse in Menlo Park.
After losing friends who criticized him as a warmonger, Luckey is suddenly feeling vindicated. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where Anduril has systems on the ground (he won’t say what precisely), some people are reaching out to apologize. They now realize “it is actually really important for the U.S. to have better weapons,” he says."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2022/06/03/palmer-luckey-anduril
28. Anatomy of a trend.
https://www.8ball.report/p/anatomy-of-a-vibe-shift
29. "Professor Cippola brings texture to a common word with a cocktail: stupid decisions are actions that are bad for you and damaging to others. Just as we underestimate the number of stupid people, we underestimate the business world’s, and seemingly successful people’s, ability to make stupid decisions that damage themselves and others. Success is literally an intoxicant that makes you more risk aggressive and impairs your peripheral vision to reality and risks."
https://www.profgalloway.com/big-stupid
30. This is a fun episode of Not Investment Advice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7OANxTd6_I
31. Solid summary of what’s happening in the economy today.
https://kyla.substack.com/p/people-are-what-matters-actually
32. Hard to argue with this.
"For those of you that have been outside, a Lich is a kind of undead creature that is, to quote my good friend and D&D fanatic Phil Broughton, “an abomination that required abominable act to come into being, more to sustain itself...a corrupt form of immortality in undeath.” These creatures can be quite powerful but require immense amounts of energy to continue to exist and very much should not exist at all. Their owners always claim their existence is necessary and justify said existence in a damnable and irresponsible way.
The liches of the valley are both the founders themselves and the venture capitalists, existing in a continual rotation of unsustainable growth and absorption, sustaining companies until they can experience a liquidity event - an IPO or an acquisition. The “unholy” nature is that these companies have the appearance of an entity one can trust - as a vendor, as a customer, and as an employer, and are kept alive through unholy, undeserved capital. The longer they last in these unsustainable cycles, the more damage they are likely to cause in their inevitable contractions or death - through layoffs, dumping customers with little notice, and the overall dependence that a supposedly-respectable company grows with anyone that they interact with.
The only solution is a reconciliation with the difference between a good idea and a good business. A company that provides a service that people like in an unsustainable way is a bad company, even if you really like it and use it all the time. A new company that provides a service at an unbelievable price may be providing it at that price simply to draw in customers in the hopes that they can find a way to monetize them further in the future, but with no rigorous plan to do so."
https://ez.substack.com/p/the-liches-of-silicon-valley
33. "Since ICONIQ was founded in 2011, Makan has exploded the firm’s reach. ICONIQ is at once a family office for the ultra wealthy, a growth fund that competes with the likes of Tiger Global, a major real estate investor, and an impact investor. ICONIQ has invested in more than 120 companies, deploying $12.9 billion in capital.
Just as this epic bull run looked to be coming to a close — at the end of last year — ICONIQ’s assets under management totaled $83.5 billion, according to the private investor presentation.
What becomes of that massive wealth horde is an open question. Careers and fortunes are made at the tail end of a bull cycle. ICONIQ returned billions to its investors last year. But the firm deployed just as many billions. Will ICONIQs financial backers remember the money it returned or the expensive investments that it made in 2021?"
https://www.newcomer.co/p/inside-iconiq-capital-how-the-rich
34. This is AMAZING. Personal Freedom should be everyone’s goal.
My guess is I'm at level 2 or 3 here.
"Freedom of time and income doesn’t turn you into an asshole, but it reduces your tolerance for anyone not free or who isn’t interested in becoming free.
Level 2-3 also eliminates your tolerance for justifying anything in your life.Granted, this happens at all levels, but by the time you reach level 3, you’re so confirmed and happy with your decisions that others’ opinions don’t matter at all–this is a consequence of freedom. You really don’t care what other people think.
People either agree with your life, they shut up about your choices, or you cut them.
I find that level 2 is where this starts, and level 3 is where your freedom is so established that you just don’t waste time tolerating people. Ultimately, level 3 is where the mental and social shifts have caught up to the ones in your earning power and physical situation.
This is the level where all freedoms are unified."
https://edlatimore.com/personal-freedom
35. Insightful view on the future of work.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DougAntin/status/1538139446607958017
36. Why Taiwan is not Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2LiMTtGrAY
37. This is not good news for Crypto. What goes up, must come down.
Treating Life Choices Like Playing in a Casino: A Framework
Caught up with one of my old startup founders, Dima Zaruta and he shared with me an incredibly useful framework for figuring out where you spend your life.
He told me when he left his last company, he sat down with his co founders trying to figure out where they spent their time. He said he used the analogy of how to approach a casino. When you enter a casino there are many different kinds of games to play. Blackjack, Pai Gow, Craps, Roulette or Baccarat. So many choices. Hence this is why having a decision making criteria is helpful.
Do you love it or Will you Enjoy it?: You won’t get good at something you don’t enjoy. Time passes so slowly and it’s hard to get into flow states if you don’t like it
High enough stakes: Is the game worth playing and spending your time on. Ie. What’s the Return on Investment
Weak or strong players: Are you playing weak or strong players? Obviously, if there are weak players, you can make way more money. If there are strong players, it’s harder to make money but you will learn and get better faster. Or get knocked out. Obviously it depends on what the goal is: learning or earning.
Short feedback cycles: The shorter the feedback cycle (ie. winning or losing), the faster you will learn and in theory get better.
It’s a very useful set of criteria for anyone. You need to approach your life and career with the same framework of criteria to pick the game & then which table you sit at. It’s so simple yet so good. Hope you find this as useful as I have.
You Need a Tribe: Lone Wolves Don’t Make it
For many of us Star Wars fans, I’ve been enjoying the new “Book of Boba Fett” show. In one of the episodes, the two main characters have a discussion about their future & Boba Fett asks master assassin Fennec Shand to join his gang.
Fennec Shand says “Living with the Tuskens made you soft.”
Boba: “No, it’s made me strong. You can only get so far without a tribe.”
There is this crazy myth propagated by Hollywood or in fictional books that preppers are lone wolves and that in times of danger it’s better to be alone. But the reality is you are just not going to live very long if that is the case. In fact, if you look at the most lawless parts of the world in the mean streets of any city, or even in places like Congo and Somalia, there are always gangs. These are groups of men who work and fight together for survival’s sake. There is power in the collective, and 3 people will almost always take out 1 person, no matter how well trained they are. As Comte de Bussy-Rabutin said: “Providence is on the side of the big battalions.”
Now I do believe it’s important that you stand on your own two feet. You have flexibility and a lighter footprint. You need to build useful skills and your own value to be of use to others in a value exchange. I believe in strong individuals and solopreneurship, but even solopreneurs work with other people. That’s how you get stuff done. That’s how you can focus on what you are good at, and be complementary to one another. And always give before you take, for both practical and karmic reasons. It’s about the win-win.
So my point is for prepping, business and life, “No (wo)Man is an island.”
You need to make friends & build relationships across all aspects of society, and have a reputation for being trustworthy and helpful ie. delivering on what you promise. In fact, just by doing what you say you are going to do, it puts you in the top 20% of people already.
Being in a network of people matters. Your network literally is your net worth. The term community is definitely en vogue these days but it’s importance has only been highlighted by the pandemic. We are all interconnected and need others. It’s wired into us. This connection and unity in the larger mission is what energizes all of us (unless you are a sociopath). Also no matter how healthy, capable, rich or strong you are, there will always be moments where you need help from others, as I learned the hard way in 2020.
As the African Proverb says: “If you want to travel fast, travel alone. If you want to travel far, travel together.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 12th, 2022
“Make it a rule of life never to regret and never to look back. Regret is an appalling waste of energy; you can’t build on it; it’s only good for wallowing.” —Katherine Mansfield
Whatever you think of Elon, this is a great discussion and interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnxzrX9tNoc
2. "Therefore if we think about your first $50,000 saved you really have three options: 1) asymmetric upside, 2) steady 7% long-term returns in something like stocks or your primary residence or 3) starting your own biz. Unless you’re already wealthy, this means you’re going to look at option 1 and option 3 - asymmetric risk.
Asymmetric risk means 1) a high risk venture investment that can go to zero or 10x+ or 2) starting your own business which can go to zero with unlimited upside 1,000x+.
Now before people say “90%” of businesses fail. You have to remember that 90% of venture investments fail as well! Therefore the question becomes… which one has the better risk-adjusted return: obvious answer is a side business.
In the second option, if you go to zero on a business, you can deduct expenses and you actually learn something. This seems to be ignored time and time again. If you buy $50,000 of anything, you don’t learn anything. All you get is a -$50,000 and a “thanks for playing” on the screen - eg. what happened with LUNA."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/good-and-bad-risk-understand-the
3. "Build. Build. Build. Build.
There is no other option. The government isn’t coming to save you. The government isn’t coming to solve your problems. We need every builder, every problem-solver, and every entrepreneur to go to work right now. If we don’t get that scenario, we are going to be in big trouble.
Don’t be surprised if you see more public comments from Bezos, Musk, and their crowd of successful entrepreneurs. Instead of balking at their perspectives, we should probably be trying to learn from them. They know a thing or two about building."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/builders-are-about-to-be-a-lot-more
4. Totally random. This is an interesting take on an old franchise. Predator versus Comanche Indians who were the toughest badass American Indians ever.
https://www.syfy.com/syfy-wire/the-predator-first-teaser-hulu-prey
5. This place is really cool. Visited in 2021. Derinkuyu, an ancient underground city in Turkey.
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/derinkuyu-underground-city
6. For folks interested in macro investing. The Commodities Supercycle & Energy is here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPbN8iMFODU
7. Discussion on the 10 elements of power that countries can use to rise up & compete.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQQeVv1A8Po
8. RIP. This guy is a hero.
“Wars aren’t being won by surrendering. You have to fight. If you don’t fight, you won’t be supported by anyone. Because it’s your own freedom, and you have to fight for it.”
https://coffeeordie.com/denys-antipov-ukrainian-soldier
9. This guy is a badass. Social media influencer and soldier.
https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-story-behind-the-viral-viking-soldier
10. Whoops.....
"The man was mistakenly sent 46.3m yen ($357,400; £287,000) in April which was supposed to be shared among 463 people in a town in western Japan.
"I feel very sorry that I used it up," the man said according to his lawyer.
When authorities finally contacted him, he said he no longer had the money."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61490436
11. A great discussion on booms and busts in Crypto and lots of other good biz nuggets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8AZftypHwI
12. "And now we’re holding our collective breath, waiting to see where they land, waiting for the next fresh hell to arrive tomorrow, or the next day, or the day after that, and tensing our collective body to prepare ourselves for each new thing: all the new horribleness and uncertainty that will define our existence until we land at a new normal—a new pleasant, calm, sturdiness where we can unclench and exhale.
But I suspect that next-step normalcy is just an appealing mirage.
I don’t think we return to a version of what came before. I think we have to find fresh footing in whatever this is, and whatever it settles into when those pieces finally land; we have to make something of what’s here rather than longing for what was and where we expected to go, next.
I do think it’s important to grieve, though.
To consider, appreciate, and show some small respect to the lives lost—those of people we know and those we don't—to the dreams dissolved, to the paths dug up and paved over, to all the things we’ll need to rethink and begin weaving into our shared stories as we undertake the generational labor of writing new ones."
https://www.getrevue.co/profile/colinwright/issues/grief-1182675
13. Really good advice for startup founders these days. What should you do to prepare for the downturn? It depends.
https://www.vccafe.com/2022/05/18/advice-for-startups-in-a-downturn-may-2022-edition
14. "The conventional wisdom at this time is that most of the world has moved on from the pandemic (except for China); therefore, supply chains will return to “normal.” Unfortunately, this is not the case. The world has permanently changed and supply chains are going to face continuing challenges for decades to come."
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supply-chains-are-never-returning-to-normal
15. Always worthwhile discussion on the emerging macro economic situation. It's gonna be bad. But buy commodities! :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1egvkuOjC8
16. "When cryptocurrencies go down in value, as they mostly have lately, people lose interest in trading them. That compresses profits for the exchanges, and marketing budgets along with them. Even in good times, Marszalek was preparing for a bear market. “We went through the crypto winter of 2018 and 2019,” he said in April. “We kept our heads down, and we continued building a strong product. That’s one of the reasons why we grew so quickly in 2021.”
Marszalek wants Crypto.com to be more than an exchange—he wants it to be an “ecosystem.” Crypto.com got its start marketing prepaid crypto-linked debit cards, which it still distributes, and it also runs its own cryptocurrency called Cronos, which it invites users to “stake” (i.e., lock money into) in exchange for various rewards. Marszalek likes to keep things flexible and, last March, introduced a marketplace for NFTs.
“Right now, 90 percent of the revenue in this industry is coming from trading, right?” he said. “If three years down the road that’s still the case, then this is a complete industry failure.”
https://www.gq.com/story/crypto-dot-com-explained
17. "#1 How do your decisions change if you can’t retire?
This is something that Ferriss doesn’t really explore explicitly: the fact that even when people “escape” work they still end up working. Tim is a good example. He likely could have stopped working but he kept getting involved in a wide range of projects: books, investing, podcasting, and mental health.
Why? My take is that most people want to be useful. It’s just that for many it is incredibly painful when you start compromising too much of your time doing work that you see as pointless, meaningless or too easy."
https://boundless.substack.com/p/in-praise-of-4-hour-workweek-182
18. Private chefs in SV.
"Private-chef jobs have been in increasingly high demand, thanks to the explosion of people working from homeand indoor dining bans that put many high-end chefs out of work. Even with tech stocks tanking ahead of fears of an economic recession, work-from-home is here to stay — as are Silicon Valley's many millionaires and billionaires.
Of course, working in the homes of busy, health-conscious, secretive millionaires and billionaires can have its downsides. Nondisclosure agreements are par for the course, as are special diets. The travel can be burdensome and not always to gorgeous getaways like Hawaii."
https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-the-job-of-a-private-chef-in-silicon-valley-2022-4
19. "Everyone should have always known all this was coming, obviously. But it’s easier said than done. Even the best VCs are forced to “play the game on the field” in some regard. The most problematic thing about timing here is that it’s basically impossible to time markets. And so you can either do nothing and wait, or yell about fundamentals into the wind, or yes, go with the flow.
But again, it feels like this go around (also undoubtedly not unique), there were many who were quick to say that this time would be different. But it’s sort of like the plot of those Final Destination movies: you can cheat death for a time, perhaps even a long time, but in the end it will find you.
On the flip side, as will also be touted ad nauseam once again, the best time to start something is at the trough of a downturn when relatively little money will keep you alive for a long while as the big money starts to swirl again. You won’t have to worry about those cash cannons being pointed at your competitors. You can just focus on building something great.
And if it gets you into the position where you can raise a ton of capital when it’s slushing about in the next inevitable cycle, congrats, you nailed the timing."
https://medium.com/five-hundred-words/the-new-old-normal-b74c116321e0
20. Good discussion on the global macro trends for investors. It's going to be rough sailing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qD4kqAarec
21. Discussion on why Taiwan is a different situation than Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2LiMTtGrAY
22. I really hope he is wrong but there is alot here on a grim note of the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZHfnDrEZNA
23. I miss Japan and I miss Cherry Blossom season.
"All is change in the world, as the Buddha said, and to experience hanami is to appreciate that beauty is inseparable from impermanence. But what comforts the ache of witnessing the blossoms is the promise that they will return again and again. Should that be lost, then all we will have left is loss."
https://www.vox.com/23103387/hanami-japan-cherry-blossom-viewing
24. "So how does this market meltdown that we are now in end?
First, we need to see the economy slow down and inflation slow down. We need to see stocks bottom out and hang out there for a while. And we need to be patient. None of this is going to happen fast.
I would be planning to ride this thing out for at least eighteen months or more."
https://avc.com/2022/05/how-this-ends-2
25. This is well argued. Mearsheimers Realism is fine as theory but sadly being misused by those corrupt ideologues who want to ditch Ukraine. #SupportUkraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOA2DJB8Jbg
26. This is a solid discussion: USA is still an investors refuge in times of challenges for now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSICpii3ZUI
27. “There are so many different types of fighters,” he told me, “including Brits and Greeks and Jews and Georgians, and they are definitely not Nazis. This is just a slander.”
But it is a necessary one. Azov has proved to be Russia’s most formidable opponents. They held up the entire advance into south Ukraine. They came to embody everything Russia claimed it was fighting against. Now they are in its hands. How they are treated will provide a signpost to what comes next. If they appear at show trials — after obvious torture — then we will know that Putin is doubling down on his madness. If talks of a prisoner exchange materialise, it will signal that broader compromise is possible."
https://unherd.com/2022/05/why-russia-fears-the-azov-battalion
28. Awesome initiative here.
29. I think Antonio did a great job here. Yes, he is pro Ukraine but this is a good discussion. I do admit I really dislike Greenwald in general.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuuhQsAM6AM
30. Cool new VC fund. Much needed.
31. So many good nuggets of insight here from some smart people. Love this show.
“100 Foot Wave”: Why so many entrepreneurs are like surfers
I stumbled upon this documentary on HBO about big wave surfers. Mainly about this surfer called Garrett McNamara who ends up surfing massive 100 foot waves at the now legendary Nazare in Portugal.
He was a Hawaiian surfer who spent every cent to try to find good surf. He would show up at the beach with literally no money. After living the surf bum life till 35, now married with 3 kids he felt he had to settle down. He opened a surf shop that did well. But after 2 years he became depressed with this so-called adult life. He decided to give professional surfing another go. This time he tried the newly emerged extreme wave surfing.
He was focused and he had a plan to go after every big swell. He was truly committed and in his words “going to go after it.” He was relentless. His goal was to chase the biggest gnarliest wave anywhere in the world whether in Hawaii, off Northern California, Morocco, Norway, and Tahiti. He was the one who discovered and popularized the legendary Nazare which incidentally the main surfing crowd derided at first. But he had found his niche. He was a maverick doing his own thing. And because of this, stood out from every other surfer in the world. The result: he carved out an incredible career over the last 20 years.
Why do I raise the topic of surfing? There is a lot to surfing that is similar to entrepreneurship. You have to understand where and when the waves (ie. Trends) are coming in. You have to paddle like crazy to position yourself and get in front of it. Be too late, you miss the wave. Too early and you get smashed by it. You have to respect the wave because you can get hurt. You get pounded by waves. You get ground down. You also risk drowning.
But when you are able to successfully ride that wave, you experience an incredible high. The “Rush” they call it.
No wonder so many startup founders also surf fanatically. The process of building a business is very similar. All successful surfers are successful only by facing and conquering the natural fear they feel when they see these massive terrifying waves. No different than doing a startup.
And in the technology business, the good news is that there is always another big wave that will come in that you can ride. The problem is it’s just not usually found in widely known or popular locations. So you usually have to go off the beaten track to find it. That’s the big challenge and the fun. So surfs up folks!
The Rule of 7: Entrepreneurship and Financial Independence is Key to Survival & Freedom
There is this scene in season 5 of Billions when the main character Bobby Axelrod is looking to make some big changes at his hedge fund.
One of his employees asks him: “how much will our lives change?”
Axelrod replies: “It’s not a problem.
Well, it’s not my problem. And don’t ask another guy about your future, make your own F—ing future.”
This scene has stuck with me since I saw it so long ago. I still cannot believe that people in 2022 still believe that the safe route in life is having a job. This is after the pandemic in 2020, an ongoing barbarous Russian invasion and war in Ukraine. Continual massive shocks to our economic system and to people’s lives. Economies shattered, business destroyed and jobs lost.
Why would you count on your boss or your job for your livelihood. A livelihood that enables you to support your family. Even supposed safe companies end up failing in the end. Or taking a massive hit PR and financially. Look at former golden child Facebook, now known as META. They have been hammered.
But at least they have massive capital reserves with $47.99B at the end of 2021. Just like you need to have at least 12 months of cash in the bank in case anything goes wrong and you can weather the storm. More here: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/the-first-step-and-goal-for-everyone
Learn the art & discipline of sales. Learn online marketing and copywriting. These are skills that are in demand all over the world. And portable anywhere.
You must also have multiple sources of incomes, read customers. Maybe even multiple businesses. Diversification, so if one customer or business disappears, you have other ones to count on. The famous rule of 7. Most wealthy people have at least 7 income streams. This is a good number to aim for.
You can have a balance of regular steady monthly payments & some irregular ones. Both large and small payments. Heck, you can even have a job that gives you the base monthly income but you absolutely must build a bunch of side hustles that provide these other income streams as per the excellent BowtiedBull: https://bowtiedbull.substack.com
This is really the only way you can truly be in control of your own destiny. The changes coming in the world from technology, geopolitical and economic aspects are only going to come faster and harder.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 5th, 2022
“Not in doing what you like, but in liking what you do is the secret of happiness.” —J.M. Barrie
Word to the wise. Capital controls coming.
"The reality is that the past decades have been the golden years of the free flow of capital. Before that, most countries had capital controls in place. They were the norm.
In an era of de-globalization, would it be surprising to see governments trying to ensure capital does not leave their borders, especially as countries struggle with high debt levels, shortages of various sorts, and surging tax rates?"
https://mailchi.mp/bf4edf19e48c/get-ready-for-capital-controls
2. "For some bizarre reason, we are made to have unshakable confidence in today’s central bankers. No one questions their wisdom and infallibility, and it’s inconceivable that they would ever make the wrong call.
This is ludicrous. People make mistakes. Even Isaac Newton. Even modern central bankers."
3. This is a valuable discussion. Lots of historical data and stories backing up the fact that we are entering a period of deglobalization and its impact on reducing inequality and effects on the US dollar system.
"Revenge of the Old Economy & How to Invest in the Commodity Supercycle"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0FS0hI6KYU
4. "No matter how the Russian campaign unfolds from here, the “special operation” has devolved into a costly mess. Russian forces are stalled, their losses are mounting, and the economic screws are tightening. Adam Smith wisely noted that there is a great deal of ruin in a nation, so Russia will likely weather the storm of sanctions, but as the war drags on, the economic crisis will deepen and the pressure on the Putin regime will mount.
At this point, a negotiated settlement seems to be the only sensible option, but wounded authoritarians are prone to double down when facing failure. The forlorn but evidently palpablehope that Putin will cut his losses and slunk back across the border seems detached from the reality of the existential crisis facing the Russian leadership. What incentive does Putin have to deescalate? Propriety, decency, and a regard for human life? Such considerations rarely enter the minds of revanchist despots.
American leaders, military officers, strategists, and commentators have been euphoric watching the vaunted Russian war machine sink up to the axle in Ukrainian mud, but it was not that long ago that the United States was embroiled in a costly quagmire of its own. Our schadenfreude should be tempered by the realization that this has happened to us in the past and can happen again unless we correct our military math.
As we peer into the mists and squalls of the unknown future, we would be wise to heed the words of Winston Churchill. “Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”
https://mwi.usma.edu/putins-bad-math-the-root-of-russian-miscalculation-in-ukraine
5. All the things you learn. Global Capitalism is complicated.
"Some say Putin will remain in power for years to come. I don’t believe that’s possible because of how global certificate and insurance agencies work.
The oligarch super-yachts which are being seized make for splashy news articles, but they are the tip of the iceberg.
Even if they aren’t seized, they are losing their certifications of sea-worthiness and insurance. That means they are unable to enter almost any desirable port in the world. No one buys a yacht to keep it moored in Vladivostok, Russia."
https://medium.com/@maxrottersman/putins-achilles-heel-lowly-maintenance-contracts-5cad1c8fcd3a
6. Good episode this week on NIA. The Tech & Crypto sell off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKCWPe91mrw
7. This is a tough business model to execute if you know what you are doing. Doubly tough if you are partying on the side.
"Last fall, discussions led by the founders about raising up to $1 billion in new funding fizzled after some investors balked at Gopuff’s cash burn, according to two people familiar with the efforts. Since then, they’ve overseen two rounds of layoffs totaling hundreds of workers. Earlier this year, Gopuff instituted a temporary hiring freeze for employees and also shuttered a fledgling pharmacy delivery business, say people familiar with those efforts. And they’ve lost several executives recruited from tech companies like Facebook and Airbnb to modernize their e-commerce software and build a new advertising business.
That upheaval has raised questions among some employees about the leadership abilities of co-CEOs Yakir Gola and Rafael Ilishayev.
Underlying the aggressive expansion was the founders’ grand vision for Gopuff’s future. At employee all-hands meetings last year, Ilishayev extolled the company’s fast growth and said he wanted Gopuff to become a $1 trillion business, according to a person present at the meetings. By early this year, the company’s workforce had grown to over 15,000.
Gola and Ilishayev oversaw this rapid growth from side-by-side houses they had bought in Miami where they exhibited a lavish lifestyle. For in-person meetings hosted at the homes, employees often passed through rows of luxury sports cars lining the homes, according to people familiar with the matter. The founders also co-purchased a private jet during the pandemic, a separate person said. And Ilishayev posted photos on his private Instagram account, which some employees had followed, of him smoking hookahs with friends or the founders partying at nightclubs, according to a person who saw his account.
Meanwhile, some of Gopuff’s expansion plans were stumbling. Last April, it ended its ship-to-home service, which had sold products to consumers outside its normal delivery zones, a company spokesperson confirmed."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/gopuff-founders-ambitions-falter-as-startup-bleeds-cash
8. "Beginners Breakdown: 1) do you think supply of money is going up or down 5-10 years across the globe; 2) do you think more or less people will use tech/crypto anything you own; 3) do you think inflation will be above or below the debt rate you have and 4) if you’re trusting a third party with crypto - you’re better off just buying stocks instead with volatility to crypto instead."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/crypto-basics-on-the-last-5-days
9. True heroes here.
"The war in Ukraine has attracted U.S. military veterans and Western legionnaires like no foreign battlefield in recent memory. But what motivates midcareer professionals – often now married, with children, and with their former military lives receding into memory – to drop everything and step into the trenches of another nation’s fight?
Some are impressed by Ukrainian pluck and resolve, by surviving 11 weeks of the Russian onslaught, when analysts predicted they would be routed in three days. Others see a historic battle between good and evil, with a high-stakes clarity between right and wrong not seen for decades."
10. "As the Ukrainians accumulate more battlefield successes, they will raise their sights. The Russian army, having suffered tens of thousands of casualties and lost much of its frontline equipment, is making what might be its final, convulsive efforts at destroying Ukrainian forces in the south and east of that country.
Like their previous efforts, these too will probably fail, and the possibility will open up of Russian routs along their 300-mile-long front line. A stalemate is also conceivable, and would create one set of plausible objectives for each side; a collapse of the Russian military is somewhat more so, and would create very different objectives.
Every war must end, and this one will as well. One set of follow-on objectives for the West is clear: helping Ukraine rebuild and put itself in a condition to defeat further Russian aggression. Similarly, it is both necessary and likely that NATO will emerge from this conflict larger, more united, and more powerful than before.
But all of this leaves the problem of Russia. It will not be reconstructed from without, as Germany and Japan were after World War II. If it is convulsed from within, it is less likely to be dominated by liberals (many of whom have fled the country) than by disgruntled nationalists.
Putin may go, but his replacements are likely to come from similar backgrounds in the secret police or, possibly, the military. And it will not be able to rejoin the international community as it was."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/ukraine-russia-goals-win-war/629815
11. This is smart. As a road warrior I have a hard time sticking with a martial art. Brazilian Jiu Jitsu seems to be more prevalent than Boxing or Muay Thai.
"With jiu-jitsu, it just seemed like everyone was doing it and it seemed like every city in the world had it. I travel a lot for work so I thought it would be good because wherever I go for work, I could drop by someplace and get a workout.
When you’re doing Jiu-Jitsu, you really have to stay in the moment. You have to be present because someone is trying to kill you, literally. So, it’s very hard to think about the past or worry about the future when someone is trying to strangle you to death. It forces you to live in the moment in a really meditative way. The more you do it and the more you reach that meditative zone, you realize it’s such an easy way to live in the present.
The other side of it is that I think humans get dopamine from learning new things. With jiu-jitsu, there’s always something new to learn from it because the techniques are almost endless. That means you can keep adding to it and because of that, there’s so much to learn. You get dopamine every time you learn a new technique, or you see something new that looks kind of cool and it makes you want to try it."
https://www.gq.com/story/real-life-diet-ronny-chieng
12. "A recession has not begun yet, but the Fed is tightening, and risk assets are reacting. If a recession arrives, many of the consensus trades will reverse and investors should start to anticipate that scenario by diversifying exposure into some of the recent losers and taking profits on the recent winners."
https://www.thelykeion.com/time-to-be-contrarian
13. "We are ardent supporters of nuclear energy and, for that reason alone, are happy to see serious work being done to develop the thorium fuel cycle for energy purposes. We also understand the need to generate hype, err, media optimism for long-term projects to get government support. We sympathize with the attractiveness of moving a ball forward.
However, and this is a BIG however, much like coking coal, the real impediment for nuclear energy is a branding one. Work to develop thorium-based nuclear, irrespective of the outcome, is still just the thunder. The lightning comes when the problem of public perception can be solved and only then, as Twain so rightly points out, does the real work get done."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/nuclear-thunder
14. If you are a new emerging VC fund manager this is worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEqKeiAZZBc
15. An incredible eye opening discussion on the macroeconomic situation in the world.
Highly recommend if you want to understand what’s happening. Love the guys at Santiago Capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=IahtVXrZzsY
16. All founders need to watch this.
2022 is gonna be rough so you will need a new operating methodology here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBkzm4a7iY4
17. Even a rank amateur like me notices that this CQB is really weird.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvFOpzBOtGA
18. I love See's Candies, they are delicious!
"With ~$500m in annual revenue, See’s Candy represents less than 0.1% of Berkshire Hathaway’s holdings. Yet, Buffett has called the 100-year-old chocolate chain his “prototype of a dream business.”
He frequently brings up the company in interviews and even keeps a box of the candymaker’s peanut brittle on hand at annual shareholder meetings.
In an era that prizes flashy, fast-paced investments, the story of See’s reminds us that a company’s true value can’t always be quantified on a balance sheet."
https://thehustle.co/how-a-small-candy-company-became-warren-buffetts-dream-investment
19. "What is the difference between a guy who says I want to, and guy who says I do?
The difference is fast action.
The difference is that the guy who does things makes a quick plan and starts executing it, and fixing things up as he goes along.
On the other hand, the guy who says “I want to” all the damn time is still waiting for the perfect day, the perfect opportunity, the perfect set of circumstances to start.
Look, if you don’t want to do something – just say you don’t want to do it. Why are you trying to fool yourself?"
https://lifemathmoney.com/move-fast-perfection-is-for-losers
20. "Tech massively over-earned in 2021 – generating growth and profits at a temporarily high rate – driven by substitute demand from the pre-COVID economy. Companies with accelerated temporary growth got credit for a permanent acceleration.
But investors recently realized that underwriting growth permanence from COVID acceleration was wrong. The ensuing correction was harsh, but note that many high-growth companies are trading very close to their pre-COVID prices.
Not everything will revert to the mean. Movie theaters may never reach 2019 levels, Zoom is here to stay, and even I have been surprised by the durability of remote work. And mean-reversion does not spread at the same rate for every phenomenon: inflation will persist far longer than home fitness sales.
But many pandemic-era trends will slowly revert to their pre-2020 trendline – inflated valuations, easy money, exponential tech demand, meme investing.
Mean-reversion and inflation will be lingering symptoms of the virus for years to come."
https://luttig.substack.com/p/mean-reversion
21. "I’ve been scanning financial newspapers over the past few weeks and noticed that despite the hefty stock market declines there are no articles suggesting that retail investors should sell or consumers should pull back on their consumption.
Now why is that? Well, if retail investors would sell and consumers would pull back on a broad scale we’d most certainly already be in a deep recession. Thus everyone – central banks, corporations, media, and pundits – are all choosing their words extra carefully these days to avoid panic or what you might call a run on the economy.
But I’m an independent writer and I see clear signs that we are heading into a recession. And since the average consumer or retail investor usually is the last to know I thought I could share a few ideas within the context of fewer better things."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/tips-for-the-looming-recession
22. Yikes. She is probably right in the long run but the question is whether ARK can survive the next year or two.
"I have been critical of ARK Invest, and their flagship ARKK “Innovation” ETF since the inception of this blog, noting last November - before inflation became an issue, before the war in Ukraine and before the market decided to take a king-sized shit - that Wood’s success seemed superficial and based on temporary trade-winds that were bound to change direction.
Since November 2021, ARK’s “Innovation” ETF has put in a performance for the ages, plunging -58.1% compared to its benchmark, the NASDAQ QQQ ETF, which has fallen only -14.93% in the same period of time."
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/cathie-wood-and-the-definition-of
23. "Amateurs talk tactics; professionals talk logistics. Once Russia pushed their units fast — we saw units just driving through towns, trying to get where they were going — they extended their operational reach. That is an operational risk. Such a move is not unheard of, but the Russians couldn't hold the lines to support everything they were pushing in at once. Those logistical lines are the lifeline. Once again, what wins wars, or loses them, are questions of logistics.
But the training and preparation of the conscripts was poor, and the Russian military lacks professional enlisted soldiers. They were trying to fight like a modern Western military with a Soviet-style force that even wasn't as strong as it was during the USSR. They failed, and have now been exposed as suffering from years of graft, decay and belief in a method of warfare that does not fit the strengths of their military."
24. Steve Aoki is a great example of the future of entrepreneurship. "Multi product" Portfolio entrepreneurship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4FZvwyUqto
25. This is always a fun discussion. Nomad Capitalist & the Rebel Capitalist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wpS8TwOFmo
26. Discussion on Bitcoin and the Sovereign Individual & the rise of Decentralized world. Worth listening to whether you agree or not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCA2IUFtpd8&t=221s
27. Super interesting discussion on the US dollar dominance and whether it will continue or not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EWFyCOOQCU
28. Always a good show: entertaining and educational. All in Podcast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DQ87UHAGTk&t=1378s
29. Good!
"The Russian military has also lost thousands of weapons, and in the last few weeks has scaled back from a three-pronged attack on Ukraine to a narrower effort to take the whole of the Donbas—and retain the parts it captured in 2014. The losses could make it difficult to wage war anywhere else in the short term, defense experts and officials said.
“Russia has taken heavy losses in this campaign, which will reduce its ability to engage in conflict over the next few years,”
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/05/has-ukraine-broken-russian-military/367480
Having A Big Mission & Taking Action: A Moral Imperative
A man must build their own value. They do it by achievement. Hard accomplishments-wealth, fitness, position, education, winning physical and mental competitions.
I love Radigan Carter. Read his entire post below.
“What do you do every day, constantly strive to get better at, that improves not just your life, but the lives of others? What is that one thing that you are building above all else, trading your time - no, decades of your life - in exchange to will into existence that is good and beautiful in this world?
That is a mission, and everyone needs one.
I promise, once you have one, you never want to go back to living without one.
The very world itself feels different without one, like losing all the vibrant colors and being left only in a haze of grey.
Source: https://www.radigancarter.com/dispatches/you-need-a-mission-in-life
A Mission allows you to push yourself. So you can fight against comfort. As Simon Sinek says: “Start with the Why.” This allows you to not give up when you run into challenges.
To succeed you need to have some good mental frames.
You need to accelerate in your life. Focus on Momentum. As former kickboxing champion and all around baller Andrew Tate says, you gotta be “Always Attacking Life.”
Change your language in your mind and how you speak. It’s “I get to do this” NOT “I have to do this”
Face Reality, No matter what
Take total responsibility for everything in your life. Or paraphrasing Jocko Willink’s words, Total and Complete Ownership. If your life sucks, it’s your own fault. It’s also up to you to fix it.
Believe and live in a state of abundance, not scarcity.
Embrace discipline and hard work.
You also need to have a Code to live by. These are rules you operate by and that reflect your values. Values like “My Word is my Bond” or “Do What you Say, and Say What you Do”. A code is critical. I love this description below from Primer Magazine.
“Life’s already hard enough without us drawing lines in the sand, and make no mistake, that’s what having a code means. Sailing with the wind, living by society’s standards rather than your own – that’s all going to be an easier way to live, and having a strict, well-defined code, regardless of what it entails, will eventually put you at odds with the world. That’s not going to be pleasant, but it is going to be good for you. The resulting struggles (if they don’t kill you) will only make you stronger.
Character’s like a muscle that it needs to be worked out, and muscle can only be built up after being torn. The only way to strengthen your morality is to force yourself into moral crises, ethical dilemmas, and hard choices, pushing yourself to grapple with these issues. Let’s be real here, with or without a personal code life’s still going to throw those tough decisions at you – how prepared are you going to be? The hard fact of the matter is that we need to get good at being good.”
Perhaps this is why I find the American western frontier period during the 1800s so personally interesting. It was a tough place. But because it was so tough, surrounded by hostile Indians, sparse of population and with very little law enforcement, you had to rely on each other as fellow settlers and small townsmen. If someone calls you a coward or liar, you would be expected to fight or shoot him. The reason was because that was the worst thing anyone could be accused of. Your fellow cowboys, neighbors and townsmen needed to know they could rely on you. There is something to that. It’s also something I find that is missing in our modern life.
These are important for anyone in this world. You get exactly what you put into life. Push yourself and avoid too much comfort. "Nobody got anywhere in the world by simply being content." ~Louis L'Amour
Having a mission and a code is critical for every young person. It aids our human imperative of creativity, building, exploring and conquering the frontiers of the mind, body and geography.
Again, Louis L’Amour wrote: “Nations and Men are alike: they go forward or they stagnate and die.”
Parsing Out the Truth As the Truth Will Set You Free: Facing Painful Reality
In my work with startup founders, I tell them all the time they have to be like private investigators: chasing the truth and following the leads. Basically when you do customer discovery your job as a founder is to talk to as many potential customers and users as possible. You look for patterns and things that come up over and over again. Ie. things they hate and things they love. Then you coldly look at the data and feedback that comes back, even if it’s painful. Things that are very hard to face, like they hate your product. Or maybe even worse, they just don’t care. Apathy is definitely the worst thing.
I think knowing your emotional state is important here. Some of us lean towards negativity (thank you Canadian upbringing), some lean toward optimism. I, of course, prefer an optimistic leaning like many Americans. But at the same time “Hope is not a strategy.” Wanting something to be true does not make it so. Something I’m trying to deal with as I doom scroll through Twitter. Trying to fight “Confirmation bias which according to Wikipedia is defined as “the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values.”
Forcing yourself to look at the painful truth is key to success in anything. But it’s particularly hard to do now in 2022. When we have been so triggered by lots of social media, 2 years of lockdown and pandemic, we are all stuck in Fight or Flight mode as detailed out earlier: (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/why-is-everyone-so-angry-behavioral). Add now a destructive Russian invasion in Europe against Ukraine, no wonder people cannot think straight at all. Myself included. Way too much inflammatory information stimuli for our small brains to absorb and process.
Thus, we all become easily controlled by dominant narratives from political and media class.
Michael Krieger tweeted:
“The amount of emotional manipulation occurring right now feels a lot like the early days of covid. We went from virus hysteria to war hysteria.
You are being primed right now for a specific reaction later on and you don’t even realize it’s happening.”
This goes against my goal of personal responsibility and my own personal fight to learn to think for myself. Separating fact from narrative will be crucial to seeing things more clearly.
This is why you have to seek out alternative points of view to raise things that are uncomfortable or challenge your own narrative. This is why it’s so important to get out of normal media bubbles & read the stuff of people you hate or whose views you find abhorrent. More and different views. Makes it easier to find your own blind spots and flaws in thinking. Lying to others is bad, but the worst thing is to lie to yourself. I’ve written before, the sooner you accept the painful truth, the sooner you can mourn and move on and fix things.
This is relevant for business and investing. Knowing when to cut out of an investment. Or knowing there are some real critical personnel or financial issues. Or knowing the business you have helped run for a while is now finished due to an unexpected pandemic or war (gone or going through this right now). Issues that fester the longer you put off facing it. Fester is the right word. If you have major cut on your body and you don’t deal with it right away ie. treat and disinfect it, you could lose a limb, or the poison from bad blood circulates through your body and you are literally done.
It’s relevant for your entire life. Knowing when a relationship is dead. Or knowing you messed up somewhere badly. It cuts to your ego to admit it but will be even worse later if u don’t suck it up and apologize. If you don’t do that, I can assure you your life will get worse & harder to fix later. Compound interest works for and against you.
Net net: never lie to yourself. Learn to seek the truth no matter how painful. This is how you get to have a beautiful life.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 29th, 2022
“Don’t run away from a challenge. Instead, run toward it, the only way to escape fear is to trample it beneath your fett and the more difficult the victory; the greater the happiness in winning.”--Kemmy Nola
Always a good geopolitical discussion with Zeihan. Lots of implications for the global economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYZGlmX6HXY
2. I don't agree with everything Doug Casey says but this is a very timely interview.
Net net: Diversify Politically as this world gets more chaotic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6LINUyA5WY
3. "All along the winding cobblestone streets nearby, outside cafés, inside parks, on laptops and iPads, this old town teems with about 200 guinea pigs in the wireless workforce of tomorrow. In the taxonomy of wanderlust, they’re called digital nomads, early explorers of Generation Zoom, liberated by technology and changing norms to work anywhere there’s Wi-Fi. As John Weedin, a long-haired 30-year-old freelance copywriter from Kansas City, Missouri, says as he rolls up his yoga mat, “I want to keep traveling, man. People are making it work.
No place is making it work quite like Madeira. While countries from Aruba to Georgia have been trying to lure nomads to boost their pandemic-ravaged economies, this tiny island off the coast of northwest Africa is leading the way. Barrett and the other visitors here are part of Digital Nomads Madeira, a unique program catering to their needs—helping them find rental homes, equipping them with a state-of-the-art coworking space in the center of town, and organizing social events, like today’s yoga session, via a private Slack channel.”
"As nomadic living spreads, the only obstacle to stop someone from joining the tribe is fear. “It’s just the status quo and the fear keeping people from a nomadic lifestyle,” he goes on."
https://www.gq.com/story/escape-to-zoom-island
4. "Instead, Putin started a war of conquest with 250,000 troops. About one-twelfth of the number he should have had.
His armies, at the start of the offensive, should have been so large that they formed a line of tanks, trucks, and armoured cars stretching back into Russia for 200 kilometres.
This is something that Stalin would have understood. He would not have blinked. You want three million? Sure. In fact, here’s another million from the reserves in the Far East.
That is why I got my calculation about the threat of war wrong. I saw that Putin did not have anywhere near the critical mass needed for a knock-out blow. And so at the time I thought to my self, idly, hey — no one would be so batspit crazy that he would launch a war with an army tid-bit so small that failure would be guaranteed!"
https://medium.com/@barry-gander/the-real-reason-russia-is-losing-is-really-basic-4abf0adffb23
5. "China is an old empire; it endured much hardship in those times when it was weak. It is also run by a Leninist political party that firmly believes power ultimately grows out of the barrel of a gun. China, that is to say, fundamentally respects strength and is contemptuous of weakness. Russia was therefore long worthy of sincere respect because, while it’s Soviet glory days were behind it and its economy backwards and puny, it retained a military uniformly judged to be among the foremost in the world.
In truth, from China’s perspective it was this, and almost this alone, that made Russia a great power worthy of standing as an equal in the councils of the world – a notion Putin himself went out of his way to encourage by staking his reputation on having remade Russia into a formidably martial state.
Far from being poised to overrun Europe, Russia’s Potemkin army proved incapable of even making it through the rag-tag volunteers of Kiev, with their consumer drones and yoga matts. Even if it “wins” and ends up with a few more bites out of Ukraine, it no longer credibly poses any serious conventional threat to NATO.
For Beijing, this necessarily changes its whole strategic map. For the more than 100 years since the October Revolution of 1917, China and the CCP has been deeply connected to and shaped by Russia. But Russia’s shameful display on the battlefield will prove the original sin that transforms China’s view of it from one of respect into one of thinly veiled contempt.
Though they won’t let the mask slip in public, leaders in Beijing will now be in a state of intense uncertainty and insecurity, paralyzed over what to do. China must somehow regain strategic momentum, but Russia’s missteps in Ukraine have pushed it down a path with no good off-ramp to either salvage its relationship with Europe or ensure a Russian triumph capable of breaking Western unity."
https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/the-world-order-reset
6. "If you look at the USA and China, it seems that we’re moving towards more authoritarianism and less freedom.
We know. Private companies and public companies have to do what is best for them. That said, we’ve reached pretty questionable levels when people can be fired for tweets and actions based on their private lives (unrelated to the company) that gets pulled up due to some weird guy with no life living in a basement somewhere.
What does this mean? It means that as inflation goes up (and likely taxes as well), people will be too *scared* to do anything and more and more rights will be taken away over the long-term.
If you want to “make it” you’re going to have to make an extreme bet over the next 3-5 years (assuming you’re not where you want to be). If you’re already one of the “chosen ones” due to COVID you can probably relax a bit.
If you’re reading this and have no real hope, you’re forced to take action and begin building in the following direction: 1) lowest tax basis country - USA no longer necessary - sad to say it, 2) least likely to adopt authoritarian ideals - evade China and the current powerhouses such as Australia and 3) make a sizable bet on what assets people flee towards."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/running-out-of-time
7. This is a good case that China is in bigger trouble than we all believe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ERsEKLdphk
8. Kyiv 2 months into the war. Enjoying JohnnyFDs videos and cannot wait to return to Kyiv. Curse Putin and his Russian army orcs for this evil.
#standwithukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5Jx-I9TbUY
9. Always a good episode for "Not Investing Advice". Talking about Hollywood deals & NFTs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7CBN7h6txM
10. These guys are ballers. Best deal flow in the Baltics for sure.
https://sifted.eu/articles/taavet-sten-startup-fund
11. We may one day need to be "rooftop Koreans."
"Standing on the rooftops of Koreatown shops they and their families owned, clad not in body armor or tactical gear, but instead dressed like someone’s nerdy dad, often smoking cigarettes, but always on alert, the Roof Koreans provide a stirring example of how free Americans of all races can defend their own communities without relying upon outside help."
https://ammo.com/articles/roof-koreans-civilians-defended-koreatown-racist-violence-la-riots-1992
12. These are some very solid predictions of life in America over the next decade. Worth a read.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedCaiman/status/1521142254978715651
13. This is a very interesting and cool guy with one of the best Twitter feeds around. Ukrainian Journalist covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"I never intentionally worked for this. I just ended up being the most-followed Ukrainian journalist. Within several days, I went from zero to hero. I ended up being somewhat interesting to a lot of people—not only in terms of news coverage but also my opinions and experience in this world. I did not consider this purely news Twitter. I also attach a lot of things that happen in my life and in the context of war. For some reason, these things that I write ended up being interesting to people."
14. This is smart and justified.
"Away from the active battlefronts within Ukraine, though, there’s a less bloody, less prominent front in the two-month-old war, a shadow campaign that has included attacks on military and industrial targets in Russia itself.
It’s not clear how many incidents have occurred, or whether they resulted from air strikes, or missiles, or sabotage. An unofficial tally by RFE/RL, based on open-source reporting, counts at least a dozen since the war’s beginning."
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-shadow-war-russian-border-attacks/31827632.html
15. Hopeful here. We need more & better cooperation between Silicon Valley and the Defense Department. We're literally in a gray war with China and Russia already.
https://acquisitiontalk.com/2021/12/time-is-running-out-for-dod-with-silicon-valley
16. "To be bold and transparent – when we see outperformance, it *always* comes down to making investments in great companies and generating outlier multiples on each subsequent financing into these winners. Reserves, therefore, impact funds based on the returns they generate. And while reserves can occasionally boost returns, they can, and more frequently do, bring down fund multiples. They also (dare I say) sometimes create potential conflicts of interest with LPs."
https://sapphireventures.com/blog/dirty-secret-venture-reserves-are-not-always-a-good-thing
17. This is all spot on. #standwithukraine
18. Yikes.
"Behind the scenes, though, Bolt’s revenue growth fell dramatically, and questions have arisen about the veracity of its past statements about merchants that were using its services. Revenue from transactions Bolt processed grew around 10% to $28 million last year after it slashed the fees merchants pay for its services, according to an internal document viewed by The Information.
The dramatic slowdown shows Bolt is under significant competitive pressure from PayPal and Shopify, which have launched their own one-click checkout buttons for merchants. And while Bolt has touted efforts to work with more high-profile retailers, the number of merchants it works with has been hovering in the low 300s since 2020 and declined in the beginning of this year, the document showed."
19. "Howitzers are key to American combined-arms operations—ones that bring forces like infantry, artillery, and aviation to fight together. M777s have been used in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria by American forces.
For Ukraine, the artillery, in combination with counter-radar capabilities and drones, will be a “pretty significant addition to the Ukrainian capacity to fight,”
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/04/how-much-can-us-howitzers-help-ukraine/366093
20. "If any of of the people in this chain stop believing the hype around which their project is organized, then the hype becomes unjustified. So the con view of tech bubbles is that the entire party crashes if one person leaves early. And once the bubble starts to wobble, 10x employees will move on to the next compelling tech vision, causing the leveraged death spiral mentioned in the last section. Leveraging your company with talent increases your volatility - either you orchestrate a revolution, or you implode.
Technology, more than any other sector, seems to have this strong pattern of producing bubbles, where one hype train follows another. Perhaps this is because the smartest, most talented people go to work in tech, and just as credit produces bubbles in financial markets, talent accelerates bubbles in technology."
https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/talent-as-leverage
21. These buggy's are cool.
"Scrappy Ukrainian troops have made do with all sorts of vehicles and weapons in their struggle against Russia. In a truly David-versus-Goliath turn of events, the Ukrainians have fielded these small, inexpensive UTVs against some of the most feared armored vehicles on the planet. But it really isn't all that surprising that combining a small, highly agile, and reliable buggy with an ATGM, paired with hit-and-run tactics, could be a really effective tool against Russia's armored leviathan."
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-battle-buggies-are-out-to-kill-russian-tanks
22. "In good times, people are encouraged by past success to place larger and larger bets, thinking they're less risky than they actually are, when often it's the very existence of these large bets that drives present success and depresses perceived risk.
Investors believe the trend will continue indefinitely, and become complacent. They invest in lower quality instances of the asset, while increasing their leverage.
And then the music stops. Markdowns lead to deleveraging which lead to more markdowns; the positive feedback loop now operates in the other direction. Eventually, the asset class overshoots as investors become overly risk averse, setting the stage for the next bull market. Stability breeds instability, and vice versa."
https://pivotal.substack.com/p/minsky-moments-in-venture-capital
23. "The inflation is entrenched because a large number of jobs are now being done from home, and the wealthy computer desk jockeys working these jobs now require a different mix of goods. The global supply chain was not prepared for the wealthiest and largest consumers to ditch their one- to two-hour daily commute in favour of strolling into their home office clad in the latest Lululemon jammies.
If you’re one of these keyboard warriors, your consumption basket in and around the office is completely different from the basket of goods you enjoy inside your place of abode. That is why inflation, at least from a goods perspective, will remain sticky.
On the energy spectrum, wealthy Western citizens decided to underinvest in fossil fuels, which provide a high return relative to the energy invested in them, and invest heavily in renewable energy, which has a much lower return relative to the energy invested.
As wealthy Westerners aim to fight the good fight again carbon emissions, the success of their wind and solar buildout — and the accelerated retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles accompanying it — is predicated on developing countries polluting their local environments in order to produce nickel, copper, cobalt, and other key industrial commodities.
Unfortunately, pulling a vast amount of industrial metals out of the ground requires miners to burn fossil fuels. The demand for hydrocarbons continues to rise as CAPEX falls. This bass-ackwards energy policy does and will continue to produce high and rising fuel prices.
Whether it’s goods or energy, the price is rising on the things we need in this post-pandemic existence."
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/the-doom-loop-161a42bbcd50
24. "My sense is that the current reality of the market is a lot worse, because deal data is a trailing indicator – financings are often announced months after they closed.
We’ve rapidly, perhaps brutally, transitioned from a hyper frothy VC environment to a world where many deals are not getting done.
As tends to be the case, the correction started happening in public markets (sometime in H2 2021), then propagated down to the private venture growth market (Q1 2022), then to the Series A/B stage (currently). Venture tends to work as an assembly line, with each investor depending on the next stage (either a next round of financing or a public company IPO exit) for their short term success.
As the next stage becomes trickier, the natural inclination is to slow down activity to avoid having more investments slam into a wall. It takes a few months for that cycle to happen, and for a bear market to trickle down from post-IPO to seed."
https://mattturck.com/vcpullback
25. This is a pretty good geopolitical view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kagan is one of top analysts here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwPy1T2FvQ0
26. There is so much insight here if you want to really understand what makes the best Venture capital investors tick. I really need to read the book.
But this interview is excellent as well.
"the act of entrepreneurship, which is scary and risky, is a bit de-risked by venture capital. Venture capital is a machine for manufacturing courage. That's extremely important to understanding how Silicon Valley grew up.”
https://neckar.substack.com/p/sebastian-mallaby-and-the-machine
27. This is a good discussion on why Ukraine will win over Russia. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOPr96L0wA4
28. "Individuals, too, have turned their attention-capture skills into wealth and power. Social media has been a steroid for reality television, turning suburban teenagers into “influencers,” B-listers into millionaires, and the attention economy has turned game show hosts and comedy actors into presidents. There is real upside in the reshaping of the attention supply chain. From Substack to Spaces, thinkers and entertainers with heft and talent have established distribution channels outside the superstructure of media brands.
What Facebook did to traditional media and Netflix did to cable TV, TikTok is doing to Facebook and Netflix both. The social media/streaming hybrid has quietly become one of the most powerful WMDs in the world, with a production army of a billion users producing its content for free. This unrivaled reserve of energy is refined by an algorithm that is a supercollider of the TV Guide, TiVo, a remote control, and the brain, choosing between billions of programs (globally) in a fraction of a second. Imagine if Netflix reported that it had reduced its content budget from $17 billion to zero … yet still added new users equal to the populations of Japan and the U.K. No need to imagine, that’s TikTok.
We become what we pay attention to. So we are becoming celebrities people are addicted to … but don’t really care about."
https://www.profgalloway.com/wmds
29. "The one thing I tell my students is that when you get to a confrontation of any type, you have to remain calm. When you remain calm, you can see the board a lot clearer. You can see the person you're playing or arguing with a lot more clearly, for who and what they are. So you don't even have to entertain that shit. You understand?
I tell everybody that they should be proficient in the Bible, even if you're not religious. To me, the Bible is Basic Information Before Leaving Earth—B.I.B.L.E. If you utilize the Bible, 99% of all the things you do bad, you wouldn’t do."
https://annekadet.substack.com/p/life-advice-from-nyc-chess-hustlers
30. "A shirt would only muffle the Liver King’s message: that the modern world has made men unconscionably soft, and that the only way to fight back is by living more like our earliest, most-jacked ancestors.
The way to accomplish this, according to the Liver King, is by following his nine “ancestral tenets” (sleep, eat, move, shield, connect, cold, sun, fight, bond), doing the most brutal workouts imaginable, and, above all, eating more raw liver—the nutrient-dense meat favored by, as his website puts it, “lions, great whites, and other wild alpha organisms.
It’s a message the 45-year-old influencer, supplement-brand owner, and self-styled “CEO of the ancestral lifestyle” born Brian Johnson wants to share with the world, and one that is communicated most loudly and effectively by the Liver King’s own bulging physique. In his videos on TikTok and Instagram, he submerges himself in ice baths, drags weights down his driveway using only his teeth, and generally subjects his body to the kind of treatment prohibited under international human rights agreements.”
“Hard times make strong men, and there’s no requirement for hard times anymore,” he said, sitting back in his office chair, framed by a wall of nutritional supplements. “Look at shelter. Today, a realtor can find you shelter. There’s no requirement for effort or hard times if you want sex, or if you want a mate. There’s apps for that.”
https://www.gq.com/story/in-the-court-of-the-liver-king-brian-johnson-ancestral-supplements
31. "It might seem stupid, but legitimately one of the best ways to counter burnout is to get a hobby. You know, an activity you do during your leisure time for pleasure?
Hobbies give us a sense of control, of progress, and of enjoyment. We do them not because someone is expecting us to do it, but because we want to. And we can go at our own pace, and we are the primary ones judging our output."
32. "We have to get better at making bets. We can't, as Buffett says, "swing at every pitch."
To make better bets, we really need to do our research (this could include doing smaller experiments). But we're looking for evidence that the market it "pulling" for a particular product or solution.
It also means we have to be patient: founders shouldn't go after every opportunity (we shouldn't swing at every pitch that comes our way)."
https://justinjackson.ca/effort
33. "If Elon is the new archetype of the Silicon Valley hero, then Silicon Valley and the world of tech innovation is a far more complicated, occasionally dark and not obviously good place than perhaps we want to believe. To fully accept Elon, Silicon Valley needs to give up on its Promethean ideal.
Perhaps in a sense this new version of the Silicon Valley hero is more honest than the Promethean vision. Thomas Edison was no Prometheus. Neither was Steve Jobs. Nor is Bill Gates.
If this is where we’re going, however, it will be a rough cultural transition. Even as the narrative of the American dream has withered, I would argue that the narrative of the Silicon Valley hero’s journey of technical innovation has stayed largely intact to date. But Elon’s brand of entrepreneurship, mixed with his success and prominence, rewrites the book.
As technology has come to engulf the entire business world, victory and success are no longer about blinding insight from a lone voice. They are about leadership, business management and wrangling a crowd—or a mob.
No longer is the hero the engineer who went out on their own and proved everyone wrong. It is now the capital raiser who stakes a claim, raises unfathomable amounts of capital and delivers a new future, sometimes at a great price."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/elon-musk-is-silicon-valleys-new-hero-for-better-or-worse
34. So many good tips and advice here re: company building at some of the top growing startups in Silicon Valley.
35. This is an alternative view of the fall of Rome.
"Rome stopped being a nation the moment its elements turned upon themselves. And this is the real lesson for America: You are not likely to perish from outside enemies, but from your own politicians spinning a story for momentary gain."
36. "In other words, if technology is shifting away from the things that the VC model is optimized for, maybe we just won’t have as much VC. Ultimately, this might be traced back to the end of Moore’s Law. Smooth, continuous improvement in the general-purpose technology that enabled all of software allowed everything to just get better and better.
New vistas of computing opened up — desktops, the internet, cloud, mobile, wired devices — and each one created new applications and new megacorporations to monetize them. But if there’s going to be a slowdown in computing itself, then perhaps the software business has simply reached the end of a long and amazing rainbow.
I do entertain the notion that crypto is actually symptomatic of this — that it’s tech’s version of the financialization that happens at the end of every productive industrial boom. Obviously it’s possible that crypto may do a lot of incredibly useful things, but it’s also possible that tech investors are pouring money into casinos because there are fewer other places for it to go."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/suddenly-startups-are-having-trouble
37. "Russia’s advantages have turned into its weaknesses. They now face a better version of themselves in the east of Ukraine. Kamikaze drones are diving out of the sky at will. Ukrainian artillery is outperforming their own.
If your men don’t want to fight in infantry combat, and you can’t win in ranged combat, what are you left with? Threatening nuclear strikes.
You don’t threaten nuclear strikes when you are winning a war.
Every day that goes by results in Ukraine getting more equipment, training, intelligence, and funding to fight off Russia. It’s only a matter of time."
https://medium.com/@seanjkernan/ukraine-is-starting-to-win-this-war-7288d7d8bbf9
38. If you believe in Bitcoin, Microstrategy is probably the best leveraged play for it. Assuming they survive the slump that is.
"As is widely known, Saylor is in the process of turning MicroStrategy into a vehicle for leveraged speculation in Bitcoin. His strategy is to borrow as much money as lenders will give the company to buy and hold Bitcoin. In December of 2020, he issued a $650 million convertible bond and followed that up with another $1.05 billion convert in February of 2021.
The second of these was issued just as MicroStrategy’s stock was experiencing a blow-off top and the conversion price of the embedded option in that bond was set at $1,432 per share. The stock trades below $300 a share today, making the value of that option nearly worthless.
In essence, by converting MicroStrategy into a leveraged bet on Bitcoin, Saylor is exposing his shareholders to a potential doom-loop price spiral. If Bitcoin crashes (as it has done many times before), MicroStrategy would become a forced seller, driving prices even lower. In that scenario, one of the few ways the company could raise money is by selling more stock but selling when everybody knows you have to can be…challenging."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/double-down
39. This is worth watching to prepare for the slowdown coming in SV.
Tripwires Over TimeFrames: Using PreSet Rules for Preventing Loss & Pain
Timelines are great to align with goals. It helps with planning. But the world is changing so quickly these days, you need to build some flexibility into your life and plans.
I’ve long been a fan of Radigan Carter and he has a great insight that tripwires can sometimes be more important than time frames. It’s a great way to build flexibility. It also just makes sense right? As you get new data, your plan should change. Paul Samuelson, the economist said “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
This is why the poker champion Annie Duke created this idea of pre-set rule for preventing irrational behavior or tilt. This is when your brain goes into “Fight or Flight” mode, which happens when we hit challenges or things get really hairy. That is why it helps to have a rule of the situation, like figuring out the highest amount of money you are willing to lose. Once you hit that point, you have to walk away. It helps prevent you from losing even more money, especially when your brain is triggered negatively.
This is useful for determining the future of a city or even a country. Do you feel personal safety in this place? Do you see the price of food skyrocketing? Do you see empty shelves in the stores? Do you see street and property crime numbers increasing? Are you seeing well off individuals with means moving away? Do you see companies moving away? Sadly, I see all the above in San Francisco which shows that this is definitely NOT a city that is positioning itself well for future.
These rules can be useful for investing. Ie. If your investment doubles, sell enough to recoup the principal you put in, let the rest ride. Or even, don’t put in more money if you are taking losses unless you see certain metrics change. Sometimes the action is to do nothing. Especially in investing which is oriented toward the long term thinker. I love this quote shared by Pomp from Robert H. Schuller.
"Never cut a tree down in the wintertime. Never make a negative decision in the low time. Never make your most important decisions when you are in your worst moods. Wait. Be patient. The storm will pass. The spring will come."
These rules can be useful for building your startup. For example, You cannot hire more people until you hit a key revenue milestone in the business. Or you can’t hire new sales people until certain products or packages are ready? I’ve seen way too many startup founders focusing on hitting hiring and spending plans without the corresponding revenue or user growth in the business. This is a big reason so many startups end up blowing up as their cost structure overruns the business.
These rules basically help you not over extend yourself. These are the basics of risk management. Life is all about risk management. Having triggers can be very helpful to know when to implement alternative plans. Obviously, you need to have a plan B and be prepared to act on this plan. But having a tripwire is critical for this to work.
Batten Down the Hatches: Massive Waves Coming
Lots of talk around Silicon Valley circles about the upcoming capital drought and recession. As I write this in May, it definitely feels like the wave of capital that came into the industry in 2018 is gone. This capital that crested as a massive tidal wave in 2020-2021 has left behind in its wake, massively overvalued companies, high salaries and tonnes of VC markups in their portfolios. The 4 most dangerous words in investing “This time it’s different.”
The reckoning is here as the Tigers, D1s, Coatues and Softbanks of the world pullback. Basically they thought they had the ultimate arbitrage between private and public market valuations and this bet has gone wrong as the Fed has increased interest rates.
If you want to learn more about this: this podcast is worth listening to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezOIBfZcwbQ
We are going through a downcycle not just in Silicon Valley but in the world. My view is that we are in recession now and it will get worse. Job listings have shrunk, costs of food, goods and energy are skyrocketing.
I wanted to share a couple practical tips for those founders and individuals going through this.
I’ve had the fortune or misfortune of living and barely surviving several down cycles before. Canada in the mid-90s, Asian Economic Crisis in Taiwan/HK in 97-98, Silicon Valley 2000-2001, Silicon Valley 2008-2009, and my own self-inflicted financial & pandemic lock down mess in 2020. Learned a few things coming out of these.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Get on the same page as your team. From a company perspective these are your board, your investors and your cofounders. From a personal perspective: this is your family. Make sure they understand your perspective and what is coming
Cut Burn Rate: You need to manage your cost structure ahead of the slowdown. I have been speaking with a bunch of founders who have crazy cost structures and not enough revenue to justify it. You need to cut costs NOW so you can survive. At company level, these are two good threads to follow. https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1528102541723979776
https://twitter.com/refsrc/status/1527238287471292417
Cut (Personal) Burn Rate: This is why I write down all my spending. You should be reviewing these at least twice a year in my opinion to make sure you are not getting ahead of yourself. And truly understanding what is essential and what is not. I just did my review of monthly costs and even I have gotten somewhat lax over the last year.
Just because you spend less does not mean you need to suffer too much in life. My friend Per wrote some good tips in this excellent write up (https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/tips-for-the-looming-recession) which i recommend on preparing for & thriving during the recession:
Raise cash by selling stuff you never use. I cleaned out the surfshack last weekend and organized the “useless” in three cardboard boxes marked resell, donate, and freecycle for further action.
Eliminate unnecessary recurring bills. I canceled online subscriptions I hardly ever use, like streaming video and cloud storage (by cleaning out the storage).
Repair stuff instead of buying new. I’m repairing our wetsuits with Aquasealfrom GearAid and learning how to take apart, fix, and clean my bikes.
Design a simpler, healthier diet. I’ve switched to a Mediterranean diet to increase energy, performance, and well-being. No processed foods or takeouts.
Learn how to love what you have. By only owning what I frequently use I appreciate my fewer better things more and don’t feel that I lack anything.
Bike, walk or take public transport everywhere. I’ve parked the car for all local trips and chosen to bike or walk everywhere within 5-10 miles. I save on gas and insurance, as it’s pay-per-mile, plus I’m getting fitter.
Wait out the sales. I need a few outdoor things but I’m waiting out the upcoming summer sales to get 30-50% off my favorite brands.
Leverage what’s free online – from learning a new language to fixing stuff around the house and listening to music, watching movies, and reading books.
But my point is not to scare you. Recessions can be okay despite the pain around you. Keep a calm head. If you have the cash, there are lots of investing opportunities at bargain prices, amazing new talent to hire and even advertising becomes more affordable.
Remember your long term goals. Remember your mission. You just need to survive. Keep going. As the immortal Gordon Gekko in Wall Street the Movie said: “You win a few, You lose a few, but you keep on fighting.”
Sometimes that is enough.Then you reap all the amazing opportunities that come out of it. Exactly just like what happened in all the previous recessions we’ve been through. Going to quote my friend Per again:
“The great thing with recessions, especially if you are well prepared, is that they flush out the irrational exuberance, greed, and excess to offer perspective on what really matters in life. Plus it’s the best time to start new ventures, when no one cares, or invest in depreciated assets, when everything is deflated.
But what happens if I’m wrong and overreacting? Well, I’d just have a cleaner shack, better use of my time and attention, and cash on hand to upgrade the essentials when needed in the future. Either way, it’s a win.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 22nd, 2022
“The most challenging times bring us the most empowering lessons.”--Karen Salmansohn
"Estonia takes protecting its population of 1.3 million seriously. Its defense budget is proportionately the third highest among NATO countries, and while there are only 7,000 active–duty soldiers in its military, it bulks up its defense and deterrence capabilities with reservists and with the EDL, which is the region’s largest volunteer force.
At the start of 2022, it counted some 15,000 members, plus 10,700 in its youth organizations and Women’s Defense League, which provides support to the fighting units. That already added up to nearly 2% of the population, and since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the organization has received roughly 2,000 new applications for membership."
https://time.com/6164840/estonia-baltics-russia-defense-putin
2. "A millionaire Ukrainian business titan said he asked Ukraine’s army to bomb his own newly built home after his security webcam showed Russian troops were using it as a base."
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ukraine-own-home-bombed_n_625e97b2e4b052d2bd66142b
3. "A core issue with “public goods” like water and electricity is the lack of a real-time pricing signal to optimize allocation. The Colorado River is an extreme example of what happens when price is suppressed and allocations are determined by politics. In essence, the fight over its water is a fight for a government handout, because the true value of that water is far higher than the price being paid for it by the recipients. Ironically, as shortages emerge, the value of that handout increases, causing demand for it to increase in kind – the exact opposite of how a free market would typically operate."
"Ultimately, energy is life, and the water that flows from the Rockies through the heart of the Southwest is the literal embodiment of stored, life-giving energy. How and where we exploit energy sources are choices, and all choices come with tradeoffs.
Alas, we live in a hyperpolitical world, and we are led by politicians with misaligned incentives, dubious ethics, and scant knowledge of physics. As is often the case in such circumstances, we are left with nothing but a menu of bad choices to paper over the problems of the past, and costly tradeoffs not borne by those who force them."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/buy-me-a-river
4. Great write up on the social media phenom that is Mr Beast.
"Jimmy had no headstart, no connections in Hollywood, no money. This is not a story about luck. Yet this now-23-years-old guy built a multi billion-dollar global media brand from a small town in North Carolina. His story proves it: hyper-obsession and unequaled work ethic breed greatness.
Where does Jimmy’s rise end? Nobody knows. But upon doing research for this piece, we felt more and more confident in this prediction: within ten years, MrBeast will be the biggest celebrity on the planet."
https://alexandre.substack.com/p/-crazy-until-successful-the-mrbeast
5. "It wouldn’t be surprising if Musk were treated as a supervillain, too, especially since the media is already calling him a “supervillain.” Yet should he hit the trillion-dollar level in personal wealth, it won’t be because he extorted world leaders with a diabolical superweapon or became an autocrat who treated his country as his own personal piggy bank (or benefitted from an autocrat privatizing some national industry and then handing it over to him, Russian oligarch style).
Musk would almost certainly become a trillionaire by taking two valuable companies that he’s been running for nearly two decades and making them even more valuable over the next decade or so."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/-elon-musk-could-become-the-worlds
6. This is quite helpful for Vertical SaaS investors and founders.
"The typical Growth Equation of a Vertical SaaS company is Locations x ARPU. Locations is a more atomic metric than customers because it takes into account how many actual retail storefronts (hotels, restaurants, etc.) exist. Scaling locations can be challenging because small businesses have fewer resources and tend to be local. Having strong product-led growth, performance marketing, or an efficient salesforce (inside and local) is critical."
https://www.tidemarkcap.com/vskp-chapter/vertical-saas-truisms
7. This loser represents all the worst aspects of so called manosphere: Right wing, Incel & Pro Putin.
Rumor is he has been killed in Ukraine while shilling for Putin in the middle of a Russian invasion.
#DarwinAward
"In recent years, the manosphere has grown increasingly intertwined with far-right networks and influencers, soaking up this radical fringe’s resonant but distinct ideas about the evils of the West and adoration for Putin and his strongman politics as well. This escalating entanglement, Ribeiro and other researchers have shown, is turning the manosphere into an ever-more conspiratorial and radical environment—and a pipeline sending often young, disaffected men down deeper rabbit–holes of extremism."
8. "To succeed as an investor, you have to be able to deal in paradoxes. You have to find the right balance between conviction and flexibility, between arrogance and humility: The arrogance to believe you can have a differentiated view on a stock in such a competitive market, and the humility to recognize that you could be wrong. As a technology investor in particular, you have to balance imagination with reality. You have to find the right balance between enthusiasm and dispassion. You also have to be very knowledgeable.
What’s more, tech and consumer have kind of merged as a sector. For example, how can you look at Amazon and not study Walmart? How can you look at Airbnb and not be intimately familiar with Marriott and Hilton? All these businesses are merging in profound and important ways, and the lines between tech and consumer are blurring.
If Intel falls further behind and leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing becomes concentrated in Taiwan then Taiwan will become geopolitically important in a way that the Middle East never was. Modern semiconductor manufacturing is at least as important to the economy as oil was in the 1970s. Taiwan could become by far the most geopolitically important country in the history of the world."
9. This looks like so much fun.
10. We are led by unserious & corrupt people in Western Europe, Canada and America (Democrats & Republicans) and the laws of physics are actual laws that will come into effect eventually. Which will cause the most amount of pain & social disorder.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbhUxdZtS7w&t=1229s
11. "The next stage of the demographic transition, after a drop in mortality, is a subsequent drop in fertility (although the relationship isn’t straightforward). Family sizes fall from 5 to 6 down towards replacement level. But then they drop further — and never come back. Indeed across most of the world, outside of sub-Saharan Africa, family sizes are still shrinking, and populations ageing.
Globally, this is all going to have quite grim economic consequences in the coming decades, with Japan the first country to go into ‘secular stagnation’. Morland talks of the trilemma facing ageing nations, whereby you can have two of the three: ethnic continuity, a thriving economy or a comfortable lifestyle without the huge stress of mixing child-raising and a modern economy.
Israel has sacrificed the latter, Japan has chosen to take the economic hit, while Britain’s leaders have given up its ethnic continuity. But that, alas, was a short-term solution, since young immigrants don’t magically avoid the fate of Father Time any more than the rest of us do."
https://edwest.substack.com/p/children-of-men-is-really-happening
12. "For Drummond and others, the tank plays an important part in war. “Everybody says war in the future is going to be fought only with drones, aircraft, missiles, submarines, satellites, and so on,” he said. “But none of them can physically seize and hold ground.”
Armor is still one of the best ways to protect infantry as it moves into position to capture and hold ground. “Artillery is the queen of the battlefield and it’s such an omnipresent threat that the only way you can move is under armor,” Drummond said. “What role do tanks play? Well, tanks basically support infantry in the assault and they take out other tanks.”
13. "I have observed that the Ukranians are good at a number of things and are better at U.K. and U.S. troops in a number of key areas. One of those is understanding a drone and what drones can do. Not just strike drones, but how drones extend the reach of your senses. They also understand how to use precision fires, they take basic quadcopters and turn them into deadly weapons. There is some very ingenious stuff going on.
The Ukranians' morale is remarkably high. It was even when Kyiv was under threat. It's just this confidence that the Russians will not win that increases with the more atrocities that they come across. I've been through Iraq and Afghanistan and I was in Mogadishu before that. I have fought against the Islamic State. Obviously you hear bad things happening in war; I'm not any stranger to how depraved people can become.
But I was saying to someone the other day that I have a greater respect for the ethical behavior of the Islamic State than I do for the Russians. That is no exaggeration. I've never committed a war crime, I've always told my guys that we fight with the values we represent, we don't adopt those of our enemy. I don't think of myself as a vicious person, but currently, I'm filled with the deepest contempt and anger."
https://www.newsweek.com/im-former-us-marine-training-ukrainians-russians-worse-isis-1699415
14. "We need to view optimism as a deliberate strategy — a way of excising our malaise, not just so that we can live more fulfilling and happy lives, but so that we can make progress as a nation and a society. And while looking at the good news is surely part of that, there are a lot of other aspects to optimism besides simply saying “Buck up sailor, it’s not all bad!”.
"In the end, I suspect the most effective method will be to redirect America’s attention away from social conflict (where vigorous efforts often become a negative-sum game) and toward the problems that we can all solve together — strengthening the nation, creating abundance, and pushing technology forward. A judicious combination of passive and active optimism."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-to-stay-optimistic-in-these-dark
15. This is absolutely spot on. And the West has to focus on Ukrainian victory over the Russian army orcs.
"as the country’s response to recent Russian actions in Bucha shows, the Ukrainians are a difficult people to break. The more brutal the Kremlin’s tactics get, the more the Ukrainian people are willing to fight for their homeland. So long as they believe that they can win, they will sacrifice a tremendous amount on behalf of Europe.
Ukraine’s allies are morally obligated to support their efforts.
They are also strategically obligated to help; there is more in this war for the West than just creating a Ukraine whole and free. If Ukraine can win, the ultimate result will be a weakened Russia, without the military capabilities to launch further aggression against neighboring states. This is by itself an essential outcome.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is the greatest threat to the transatlantic alliance in decades, and defeating Moscow is critical to protecting global security. It is also important for protecting liberal values and ideals."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-04-22/ukraine-can-win
16. I'm mega bullish on Latin America and will be spending more time there after 2025. (Central/ Eastern Europe for me in next few years and beyond as its region near and dear to me)
"Sometimes, the best theses are the simplest ones – and the bull case for Latin America is a case in point. It comes down to two main variables: commodities and geopolitics. Large parts of Latin America are blessed with copious supplies of the former. And by virtue of its geographic position, all of Latin America is poised to benefit from the global trends shaping the latter."
https://www.thelykeion.com/the-investment-case-for-latin-america
17. "Entrepreneurs succeed by navigating an ecosystem of counterweights. Customers want the lowest price and the highest quality. Employees want you to compensate them at, or above, market rates. Investors want to dilute your stake in exchange for their capital, and the big hand of the government is calloused and slow. Finally there’s the most formal, obvious counterweight: your boss, the board of directors.
Building a company requires that you listen to, and balance, all of these counterweights. Each has (traditionally) held influence over the trajectory of your business, providing inputs that lead to course corrections. Early-stage entrepreneurs who ignore their counterweights fail. They lose access to key information and piss people off: Customers stop buying, employees quit, investors sell. Stories of people ignoring everyone around them and coloring outside the lines make for great scripted television, but they ignore the ropes and parachutes that guide the ascent.
Some entrepreneurs achieve enormous success within this system, balancing leadership and consensus. And with great success comes great power — the power to stop listening. Which often results in a fall from grace and loss of power."
https://www.profgalloway.com/power
18. "as both the Azeri-Armenia and the Ukraine-Russia wars seem to suggest, drones have now radically leveled the playing field in warfare; this is a profound development with a multitude of implications.
Does this undermine the long-held superiority of vastly expensive armament systems, thus tilting the balance in favor of much cheaper and much more widely available weapons? If so, does this mean yet another support pillar of the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status is crumbling in front of our eyes?
After all, in a world where military might is no longer the monopoly of one or two superpowers, do we de-facto move into a multi-polar world? One in which there is no reason for trade between Indonesia and Malaysia to be settled in U.S. dollars, as it can now be settled in their own currencies? Similarly, shouldn’t trade between China and South Korea be settled in renminbi and Korean won?"
https://haymaker.substack.com/p/send-in-the-drones
19. "I’d like to take a few minutes today to talk about the similarities – and differences – between Ukraine and Finland’s fighting against Russian and Soviet invasion.
Both invasions were launched over Russian/Soviet concern over border security, and both with attempts at false flag attacks as justification. In both cases the Russian/Soviet forces were vastly overconfident in their ability to quickly defeat their opponents, and in both cases they expected to be met with significant Finnish.Ukrainian domestic support. In both cases, those assumptions were completely mistaken, and the invasions instead solidly unified the defenders instead of dividing them. In both cases the defending forces has significantly less air and armor strength that the invading forces.
In the end of the Winter War, Finland’s military managed to hold on just barely long enough to conclude an armistice – although they were days or weeks away from complete collapse on the Karelian Isthmus at the end. The treaty cost them about 10% of Finland’s sovereign territory, but they retained their independence. A similar outcome is a definite possibility in Ukraine, although Ukraine today has a few major advantages the Finns did not have."
20. "If you spend with Ukraine, you are supporting the economy. The companies are spending money building and supporting the army," Klen says. He points out that while armies win battles, economies win wars.
Adds Neskin: "We need to help our economy and turn it back on, because of course, all money that goes into Ukraine will help Ukraine."
https://www.inc.com/christine-lagorio-chafkin/ukraine-petcube-relief-campaign.html
21. "Today’s media is filled with claims of breakthrough technologies poised to revolutionize our relationship with energy. The reporting follows a predictable pattern: sophomoric barbs launched at oil and gas (now, aimed at Putin’s oil and gas, specifically) couched in breathless excitement over the latest promising solution. However, these features do a disservice in that they are almost always heavy on the possibilities and comically light on the constraints. How can constraints be addressed if we ignore them?"
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/20000-volts-under-the-sea
22. Utterly fascinating view on vibe shifts in website aesthetics.
"So what is the end game? What happens if we reach a “vibe singularity” in all forms of art, where anyone can create anything by typing a few phrases? How does status get signaled through aesthetic vibes when all the vibes are free?
I think the leading edge of aesthetics will probably always involve human skill, even if the methods we use to channel that skill will change dramatically. When it comes to relative-performance games, we should think of AI tools more like an instrument that can be played well or poorly, and less like a replacement for humans.
If all that mattered was absolute performance, then sure, the AI would be able to perform well enough to get the job done without human intervention. But when it comes to status games, relative performance is what matters. And human+AI is probably going to beat AI alone for a long time."
https://every.to/divinations/dall-e-2-and-the-origin-of-vibe-shifts
23. “I live a monk lifestyle. It’s amazing what you can get done if you remove distractions,” says Breslow, who is dressed like a confetti cannon: T-shirt printed with a purple cartoon Bolt superhero, rainbow-splattered running shorts, psychedelic Nikes with glitter soles.
Between Zoom meetings and virtual yoga sessions, Breslow, whose stake in Bolt gives him a fortune worth $2 billion, eats a vegan, locally sourced lunch in solitude and silence. He rarely eats in front of other people. He abstains from meat and gluten, caffeine and alcohol. No supplements or illicit substances, either. The strict routine is part of what he calls “working like a lion,” a philosophy of executing in brief bursts of hyperfocus and intensity, similar to how the big cat hunts.
“There’s too much work theater, where people go through the motions to appear busy,” says Breslow, who recently instituted a four-day workweek at Bolt. “I’d much rather have you focus on your health, well-being and family during your time off, so that when you’re here working, you’re all in.”
“Most people who get rich want to be a part of an elite circle. I want nothing to do with it—I’m probably one of the only billionaires who has that feeling,” Breslow says with a smirk. “I don’t want to be in their clubs, their groups, their parties.”
24. "All the above sounds depressing for Ukraine - well not if EU membership becomes a real perspective, and Western financing is forthcoming. Actually Ukraine then would have real recovery perspective. And this war could prove to be its defining moment, it’s State of Israel moment, when it finally defeated Russia, affirmed its independence and pushed on to EU membership with strong economic development then resulting.
Indeed, the way that Ukraine has conducted this war, with bravery, intellect, innovation, and real skill/honour/grace, it suggests that this nation can be truly successful - again drawing the comparison to the State of Israel how when faced with huge external threats and challenges, it has risen to the challenge as a nation and innovated to survive, because it had to."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-has-bright-recovery-prospects
25. Venture capital is important for the economy.
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/-venture-capital-is-one-of-americas
26. This makes me optimistic for the future from one of the top futurists in the business.
"A lot of smart people out there want to get involved -- to build the future, instead of just reading about it and hoping for it. What should they be doing now? What are the actions they should be taking?"
"At a technical level: Get involved. If you have professional skills, how do you deploy them? Do you work on optimizing ad clicks? On marketing consumer products? On fossil fuel production? Can you deploy those same professional skills to working on clean energy or climate, or computing advances that can accelerate progress, or helping craft business models or marketing plans for products that improve humanity?
On a civil level: Can you help cut through the hyper-polarization that exists? Can you reach out to people with differing opinions, learn how they think, and help persuade them to see the other side? Can you help elect leaders that move us forward instead of backwards? Can you criticize the worst ideas on your own political side. If you’re a conservative, can you stand up for democracy? If you’re a liberal, can you support free speech on campus and in the private sector? Can you help overcome NIMBY?
On a social level: Can you help cut through the heavy marketing of outrage and fear that media use to get clicks? Can you calm the discourse down? Can you help overcome “if it bleeds, it leads” in news media? And maybe most importantly, can you help spread this notion of dynamic optimism, showing people how the world is getting better in so many ways, and inspiring them to take action – whatever action they can – to continue to make it better?"
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/interview-ramez-naam-futurist-author
27. The Russian military sucks on so many levels. Only good for killing unarmed civilians.
"They made misjudgments, but also just institutionally they don’t have the capacity. What we can now see is that they simply do not have the institutional capacity to support offensive operations deep into enemy territory and aren’t able to give units supply and combat support of all kinds: artillery support, air support, air-defense support.
With an already weak logistics base, it was an enormous mistake for them to chop their main offensive into four major axes that were widely geographically dispersed. They don’t have enough trucks. They don’t really have expeditionary logistics. So they were going to need to resupply from logistics bases. They don’t have logistics bases in Ukraine—Ukraine’s a country that they’re invading.
So they had to rely on logistics bases that are in Russia and Belarus, and then transport everything forward—what they would do in World War One, they would hope to have railroads and railheads where you can just put everything on a train and send it to your forward operating area.
And they don’t have that.
They’re a poor-quality military with poor-quality leadership and poor logistics—and seemingly highly inclined to corruption."
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-russian-military-a-paper-tiger
28. I'm a big fan of Johnny FD, one of the OG Digital Nomads. He had moved to Ukraine before the war and he is now in Lviv. Great to see him and I also wish for Ukrainian victory over the Russian orcs. Ukrainian culture and way of life needs to be defended. #armukrainenow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSe3SHSR1UI
29. "I’m with a group of cryptocurrency enthusiasts, thousands of whom have moved to Puerto Rico in recent years, as they plot the contours of the new world they hope to build. From the YouTuber Logan Paul to the former film star Brock Pierce to some of the biggest early investors in ethereum, these settlers have been lured to the “Island of Enchantment” by low taxes and long beaches. If you thought the champions of Silicon Valley were utopian and self-assured, try hanging out with the next generation."
30. This is a must listen to interview. The new world from a geopolitical and economic perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pf0nGBA6SSs
31. This is a very good view on rising inflation and food costs. Quite insightful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOx7oYtAEns
32. Must read.
"Approach Life with an Exit Number: On Wall Street the main reason most people don’t retire with $10M+ US Token is because of the following: Lifestyle Inflation. If we were to choose one item where people lack self control it is exactly that. Lifestyle inflation. Keeping up with the Jones’s.
To be clear, we don’t think you need to disclose your exit number to the public. In fact, you are better off keeping it to yourself. Take a look around you and decide what you really need to be happy and at that point you at least have a “number” where you lose the excuses. What excuses you ask? Excuses that say “if I made XYZ or was worth XYZ i’d be happy”. This is rarely the case.
Therefore, write it down clearly and store it away: $1M US Token, $5M US Token, $10M US Token it doesn’t matter to us. Just write it down, put it away and that number represents “no more excuses related to not having enough financial resources”
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/twitter-goes-to-musk-general-successgetting
33. This is a good man.
"Over the past decade, WCK has gone from the earnest sideline of a celebrity chef to a relief juggernaut, responding to some of the biggest crises of our time—the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, the pandemic—and countless smaller ones, in the process turning Andrés into a humanitarian star. Though much smaller than behemoth relief organizations like the Red Cross, WCK has established an outsize footprint, in part because of its outsize leader, and in part because of its strategy of using local resources like restaurants, kitchens, cooks, and food trucks.
“We are very much the Airbnb or Uber of relief,” Andrés had told me this past winter."
"In the end, I would come to see the two halves of Andrés’s life as an extension of the central insight that fuels WCK: that the temperament and skill set it takes to feed people in a restaurant—entrepreneurism, pragmatism, improvisation, stamina, planning, and, yes, charisma and celebrity—are uniquely suited to feeding them in an emergency. And that both spring from the same single-minded, elemental, almost too-simple impulse: to feed."
https://www.gq.com/story/the-frontline-chef-jose-andres
34. "These crazies have monopolized public discourse and relentlessly waged cultural jihad on western civilization for several years.
And when they took control of the US federal government in 2020, the crazies truly thought that they had won.
It was from this arrogance that they felt confident enough to take off the gloves and unleash their full crazy show.
This is what we’ve been watching for the past two years— a full blown circus orgy of crazy. We know crazy when we see it, and we see it every day.
These crazies were put in charge of the economy, public health, criminal justice, education, and more. And the results have clearly been disastrous.
Now they’re coming up with lame excuses for their failures, like calling inflation the “Putin price hike”, as if voters are gullible enough to believe such obvious crazy talk.
We the People may be dumb… but we’re not stupid. And we know crazy when we see it."
https://www.sovereignman.com/trends/we-know-crazy-when-we-see-it-35207
35. Seriously, now this is the way you quit your job!! What a badass here.
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelidov/status/1519055836928118784
36. Ironic. Guess there is such a thing as karma.
"The attacks against Russia stand in sharp contrast to recent history. Many cybercriminals and ransomware groups have links to Russia and don’t target the nation. Now, it’s being opened up. “Russia is typically considered one of those countries where cyberattacks come from and not go to,” says Stefano De Blasi, a cyber-threat intelligence analyst at security firm Digital Shadows."
https://www.wired.com/story/russia-hacked-attacks
37. Great discussions here as always. Not Investing Advice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znpbBkvdnfg
38. Every seed stage founder should read this.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/wow-did-my-pitch-deck-suck
39. @JohnnyFDK God bless you sir & be safe!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5OtosCTC9Q
40. This is a very good interview on the journey of entrepreneurship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sz-LQUQofsM
41. Heartwarming and heartbreaking at the same time. Please donate to support these volunteers feeding old people in the war zone.
#supportukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnhc_CHHkCQ
42. "In sum, the secret to my success is … rejection. Specifically, my willingness to endure it. Everybody knows failure, everyone will experience tragedy. You will get fired, make bad investments, and fall in love with someone who doesn’t love you back. Worst of all, someone you love, and who loves you a great deal, will get sick and die. A core competence of successful people is the ability to mourn, and move on."
"In addition, age has given me the courage to be more forthcoming with my emotions. To tell people I love them, that I admire them. Looking at important decisions through the lens of your deathbed usually yields the same answers: Go for it, and tell people you love them."
Purpose & Mission=Legacy
“Person of Interest” is one of the most prescient action tv series that came out in the last decade. It showed the extensive reach of surveillance state and rise of cyber warfare. A bit dystopian but also a great human drama.
There was a striking quote in the last episode.
“Sure. Everyone dies alone. But if you mean something to someone, if you help someone, love someone, if even a single person remembers you. Then maybe you never really die at all.”
It has stuck with me for a while and helped me think about my mission. So many of us are so caught up in the hustle and bustle of our lives that we don’t think about where we are going or what we are leaving behind. Basically our legacy in life.
I’ve had to ask myself: Why am I here? What am I doing? What is the ultimate mission that can justify my time on this planet?
So this is what I’ve come up with and have a daily reminder of this through my Vision Board.
Being the best father, husband, son, brother and friend that I can be.
Being the best business partner for my businesses that I can be.
Positively impacting at least 10,000,000 people across the world. I would do this through my online writing, investing, mentoring/advising, educating, public speaking, consulting, coaching, donations to charity as well as the building & operating of businesses.
I’ve always believed that you should leave something behind better than when you arrived. Executing on my mission every day is the way I’ll build my legacy.
But first you have to clarify your mission as this is the first important step to accomplish it & really live. As the Bible says: “Man without vision shall perish.”
Details Matter: Importance of Operations and Process in Growing Startups
Early in my career in the technology sector, I’d always been attracted to the marketing & sales strategy side of business. The front facing side and frankly the sexy side. I had held several roles in marketing until I was offered an interesting but divergent role at Yahoo! Inc. helping run Global Sales operations. The role was about bringing the best practices, technology and processes perfected in the US operations of Yahoo! to the rest of the world & adopting them to fit for each local market's needs overseas.
While sales & marketing is the front facing side of business, operations is all about the delivery. Basically “making the trains run on time.” And it is often the crucial and overlooked side of any business. I’m not a naturally detail oriented person but operations forced me to get good at this. It made me understand the trade offs between process, people & technology and how getting that mix right was key to delivering the product to customers in the most cost effective and sustainable way. I learned so much here and it made me a better salesperson and it made me a much better executive and business person.
The hardest part of operations is if you get it right, no one really notices because all the details are in the background. People only notice when it goes badly wrong. For any ambitious executive, this is a hard way to rise through the ranks as it seems like a no win situation. But this is ironically the best way to learn the nuts and bolts of a business.
I’ve been very fortunate in being a small part of multiple fast growing businesses. And the thing I’ve noticed that ends up damaging or handicapping all of them, besides crappy leadership, is due to bad operations. This is usually also tied to crappy leadership, as many founders usually dislike delving into details & processes and love working on grand strategy and vision.
Yet the details matter. As an old Japanese saying goes: “For want of a nail, the horseshoe was lost. For want of a horseshoe, the steed was lost. For want of a steed, the message was not delivered. For want of an undelivered message, the war was lost.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 15th, 2022
“Challenge yourself everyday to do better and be better. Remember, growth starts with a decision to move beyond your present circumstances.”--Robert Tew
This is a good European view on the Russian invasion of Ukraine & geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ3zKgGXURg
2. Scary new digital world. This should be troubling to anyone who cares about free speech, privacy and freedom.
"The danger and the benefits are clear. We could end up with something like the Social Credit System that has been implemented in China, if we are not careful. Except, a CBDC in a democracy is far more challenging. Autocracies are expected to control their populations. Democracies, in contrast, are expected to protect personal freedoms.
Worse still, we could end up with a CBDC system that provides no transparency of government activities but creates full transparency for those of citizens. The combination of blockchain and CBDC will cause also a revolution in public finance because it will bring radical transparency to government spending. It should be the end of buying votes, the end of lobbying, and the end of pork-barrel politics."
"Democratic governments need to understand that their efforts to exert control could kill the very golden goose of creativity and human agency that they were meant to be protecting."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/cbdc-airdrops-airtaxes-and-agency
3. Agree with this wholly. Germany does owe Ukraine.
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/germany-owes-ukraine
4. "Overall, our take is that the war has proved a mildly net positive use case for cryptos, but nothing to get overly excited about. We’re still more interested in countries like Argentina, whose citizens are exiting their government's decades of monetary missteps in droves via Bitcoin as conversion to USD is capped. Westerners can scoff all they want about us calling Bitcoin a ‘store of wealth’, but when your local currency has devalued by 50%+ for multiple years in a row, Bitcoin represents just that."
https://www.thelykeion.com/bitcoin-in-q1-outperforming-risk-on-assets
5. I love Nutella, even though its bad for you. Great overview of the Ferrero empire by the excellent Trung Phan.
https://trungtphan.com/the-36b-nutella-empire
6. "The most prosperous societies are built around free-market competition. It’s uncomfortable — harsh even — so we’ve tried to design societies based on planning and enforced economic equality. But communism leads to stagnation, repression, and economic collapse. China’s economy went from starving its people to minting self-made female billionaires after Deng Xiaoping embraced private enterprise and competitive markets. “To get rich is glorious,” he proclaimed."
"Competition depends on rules, and rules depend on umpires. We should fight to protect competition — not winners. Because winners subvert the process. In the name of competition, they demand that their anticompetitive acts go unpunished. In the name of freedom, they insist on their right to shout down the dissenter’s voice. In the U.S., winners have funded “think tanks” and politicians, bought newspapers and cable news stations, and convinced us the umpire is our enemy."
https://www.profgalloway.com/umpires-not-kings
7. An excellent view on why the world & world economy is so chaotic right now. Well worth reading for fans of macro economics.
https://kyla.substack.com/p/the-disruption-of-stability
8. "In a time of chaotic supply chains, rising food prices, inflation, and war anxiety, being able to provide for yourself has a new glow, whether it's through "homesteading" or its close cousin, "prepping,"
9. "There is something seductive and comfortable about having fewer options and being told what to do and what to think. And Fromm's observations are all the more relevant today, with algorithms and artificial intelligence threatening to turn us into zombies glued to a screen (or a headset), and China promoting a brand of open-air jail that too many people seem to find attractive (until they actually try it)."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/freedom-and-flatbread
10. "In other words, if a major great-power war breaks out, or even just a U.S.-China war, it’s likely that Chinese military spending will kick into high gear and the U.S. will find itself struggling to keep up.
Looking at all of these numbers, I definitely do not feel secure that the U.S. has overmatched our potential enemies. In fact, given China’s economic size, it’s pretty clear we have no hope of overmatching them the way we did to Germany and Japan in WW2 — at least, not anytime soon. The argument that our military dominance is so secure that we can afford to slash spending therefore doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
Should we try to find and cut waste in military spending? Yes, of course. Should we try to improve the procurement process to get more bang for our buck? Yes, of course. Should we be trying to figure out what new sorts of weapons platforms we need in order to defeat China and Russia should a confrontation come, and to deter them in the hopes of avoiding such a confrontation? Yes, of course.
But should we slash defense spending overall? I just don’t see a case for that."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/defense-spending-again
11. "While there are dozens of others productizing venture in their own way, as an industry we’ve barely begun to scratch the surface of what’s possible. Leading firms of the future will be productizing venture, and incumbents who don’t should view them the way Marc Andreessen once commented about Angel List in a New Yorker profile: “What if we’re the most evolved dinosaur, and [they’re] a bird?”
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/productizing-venture
12. "Hmm, “I have all the problems I want” is an unusual answer and I’ve never heard it from anyone else. At the time, I didn’t think much of it. Yet, here I am, years later, thinking about that answer to the most common of questions.
That answer prompts several questions:
What problems do I want?
What problems don’t I want?
Do I want a life with no problems?
What’s the value of having problems?
This makes me think the entrepreneur has a strong locus of control and works to manage his life around “good” problems and attempts to eliminate most “bad” problems."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/04/16/i-have-all-the-problems-i-want
13. “These are people who are ill trained and unable really to function unless an officer is standing right behind them.” Ryan said. And that helps explain why so many higher ranking officers, even generals, have been killed in Ukraine. It’s because “the junior officers have not got the leadership qualities or experience to make sure that the tough things that are necessary to do get done. And so the senior officers are coming down to the ranks and the front lines to make sure things get done, and that exposes them.”
https://www.spytalk.co/p/russias-draftee-ticking-time-bomb
14. "The differences in the two blockchains mirror an ideological rift in the crypto world: Crypto purists (like Buterin) accuse Solana of being too centralized, too enmeshed with venture capitalists, too willing to compromise in pursuit of efficiency. When Solana went down for 17 hours in September of 2021, Gavin Wood, a founder of both Ethereum and rival blockchain Polkadot, was quick to go for the jugular: “Events of today in crypto just go to show that genuine decentralisation and well-designed security make a far more valuable proposition than some big [transaction per second] numbers coming from an exclusive and closed set of servers,” he tweeted.
The rivalry between the Ethereum and the Solana proponents has all the makings of the classic, cutthroat battles that defined the internet before Web3."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/can-peace-last-between-cryptos-visionary-rivals
15. "With no peace talks and few new sanctions likely to be introduced the focus now is on the fighting. Ukraine cannot cope without Western support and so the key test over the coming weeks will be whether or not the flow of equipment and materiel to the front can be sustained. In reality the West dare not let Ukraine fail now. If Putin’s last big gamble, the offensive currently developing in and around the Donbas, comes off and Ukraine is pushed back then NATO will have to live with the consequences for years to come.
This is no longer about sympathy for an underdog but solidarity with a country that has stood up to bullying and brutal behaviour and may now even have a chance of pushing out the invading forces.
Another one of the past assumptions was that at some point the Americans would have no choice but to step in and arrange a negotiated conclusion to put an end to this deeply damaging conflict. The Americans, however, have had not high-levels talks with Moscow and if they did it is not clear what they could discuss.
Once it is accepted that as Ukraine is doing the fighting only Kyiv can agree terms then there is not much of a limited diplomatic role left for other would-be interlocutors. Should terms be agreed between Moscow and Kyiv then there would be lots to talk about – security guarantees and reparations, war crimes and economic sanctions. But that is for the future. For now the main role can only be a supporting one."
https://samf.substack.com/p/nato-and-ukraine
16. Inflation in the USA: yes, sadly so.
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-112-inflation-is-hurting
17. Hard to argue with this. Particularly wrongheaded energy policy by Democrats. Yes, we need clean energy but there has to be bridge to this.
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/us-democrats-are-engaging-in-epic
18. "This was the moment his job decisions became more liberated, too. Apparently unburdened by the need to be a traditional leading man, Skarsgård took on the darker, meaner roles that have defined this latest chapter of his career. “It might be related,” he nods. “There was another factor at play. I was getting older. And the older I got, the less I cared.
I came out to Hollywood in my 20s. It was exhilarating and exciting but also demoralizing and humiliating. I was intimidated by the industry. You go into a restaurant and there are casting directors, people talking about the business, you're surrounded. Getting older, getting some physical and emotional distance from that, it was good for me. I just don't give as much of a fuck any more.”
https://www.gq.com/story/gq-hype-alexander-skarsgard
19. "Connecting with nature. Being part of a tribe. And a motto about living life as a story.
It’s often the simple things that help us reset and find our bearings."
https://andyjohns.substack.com/p/life-lessons-from-a-tombstone-at
20. Title says it all. Maximum Bullish on Latam startup scene. Will be spending more time there in 2025-2030, after Central Eastern Europe these next few years.
https://www.nfx.com/post/latam-on-the-rise
21. "In the global dollar-centered system, the boundary between inside and outside is fluid. A declining appetite for US Treasuries on the part of Japanese or European investors might well be offset by demand internal to the US financial metabolism.
The dollar system has to be understood as containing within it the currencies that it subsumes, most notably the yen and euro-based financial systems. So long as exchange rate movements are small or can be hedged cheaply they function as effectively indistinguishable from the US financial system.
That, however, depends on preserving a stable alignment of central bank policy - it does not need to be the same, but it does need to be aligned in a stable way. That stability of alignment is now being put to the test."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-113-tension-in-the-dollar
22. Love this. Easter eggs in video games.
"That was a common reason for early Easter eggs: a desire from designers to get their names into the world and express themselves in industries that were suppressing individuality."
https://thehustle.co/the-first-easter-eggs-were-an-act-of-corporate-rebellion
23. "As you can see, the Arctic is getting very noisy. It could be that Russia’s strategy all along has been to punch the kid Ukraine, merely a proxy, in order to create a situation that effectively prohibits the US and NATO from responding to Russia’s land grabs and military build-ups in the North. This fear of a direct, or a nuclear, confrontation allows Russia to take many steps in other locations without any response.
When Russia built troops and material up around Ukraine, people thought it was a bluff. I argued that it wasn’t. Now there is a build-up around the Baltics, the Scandis and the Arctic. In my view, this is similarly not a bluff. For those who think Russia can’t afford to keep the war up, try to remember that Putin views the Arctic as a pile of cash. Commodity prices are high and the Arctic represents an almost unlimited treasure trove of commodities, especially black gold.
Now we are in a commodity war and perhaps a physical war in places we had not considered. The Russians are fighting for control over the most valuable pile of commodities on the planet and territory that has meaning for us all - those found from the Baltics to The High North."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-high-north
24. "These eight measures arise from a vital lesson of the ongoing war in Ukraine: Each day that a smaller defender stays in the fight, the more constrained the invader’s options become and the dimmer its prospects for success. China seeks to win without fighting, or with minimal fighting.
For Taiwan, the best path is trying to avoid the fight by ensuring that if it starts, it will last for months, be bloody, and prevent China from consolidating meaningful gains before American and allied firepower arrives. With rapidly deployable assistance, munitions, and training, Washington can help Taiwan to become a dragon-choking porcupine before it’s too late."
25. Word! An Amazing call to action.
"What many have missed when lamenting the decline of aging institutions is that building is still happening in America. The top six companies by market capitalization in the U.S. are technology companies, two of which were founded less than 20 years ago.
Twenty-five years ago, none of the top six companies were tech companies. The prevailing trend of this century is not that we’re destined for decline. It’s that technology is and will continue to improve civic functions in this country, especially in areas where the government is failing.
It is our technological prowess that still makes us the envy of the world. Every country asks itself “How can we build Silicon Valley here?” And thankfully, Silicon Valley is no longer a place in Northern California. It is an idea, one that every city and community must embrace in this country if we truly believe in building American Dynamism.
Insurmountable problems in our society—from national security and public safety to housing and education—demand solutions that aren’t just incremental changes that perpetuate the status quo. And these solutions will come from serious founders, those who are willing to build something new from nothing.
Building is a political philosophy. It is neither red nor blue, progressive nor conservative. It is averse to the political short-termism and zero-sum thinking that permeates our aging institutions that won’t protect us in this era. There is no fixed pie when it comes to building. Building is an action, a choice, a decision to create and move. It is shovels in the dirt with a motley crew of doers who get the job done because no one else will.
Building is the only certainty. The only thing we can control. When the projects we believed were Teflon strong are fraying like the history they toppled, the only thing to do is to make something new again."
https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/the-case-for-american-seriousness
26. "These expectations were upended by billionaires’ finding a (seemingly) much better way to make their money safe: move it to the West. Most of them did so and it seemed an excellent decision—all the way to about six weeks ago. The new post-Putin billionaires will probably not forget that lesson: so we may expect them to favour a weak central government, that is, a true oligarchy, and to insist on the domestic rule of law—just because they will have no longer any place where to move their wealth."
27. The coming end of Chimerica......
"The big difference between this lockdown and the one in February 2020 is that the rest of the world is open and won’t be tolerant of disruptions. Consumers won’t wait for products – especially when it comes to items that fall under discretionary spending. If products are delayed, consumers will just purchase alternative goods or nothing at all.
Eventually, all of the pent-up orders will be shipped. If the process for ramping up shipping volumes happens quickly, then American ports will likely see a replay of last year’s shipping influx and backlog.
However, if the process takes longer, it could be worse for the economy, because it would erode supply chain forecasts and product orchestration.
This will have long-lasting impacts for decades to come.
Supply chain professionals are already looking for alternatives to China, and this process will accelerate. FreightWaves is seeing a surge in site selection freight modeling requests from supply chain organizations that want to move production closer.
Cost is only one consideration in choosing a production site. Dependability is often more important.
The cynics say North American reshoring will never happen due to cost. This was true for decades. But boardrooms are now prioritizing supply chains in ways they never have before. "
28. "While it is “premature” to analyze what Moscow is doing in Ukraine now, “one can speculate that this will be remembered as the last act of the 30-years-long drama of Russia struggling with its imperial legacy,” a struggle that clearly has had the most paradoxical of results, Kortunov argues.
Over the last three decades, Russia “has been able to turn into a very active global power without becoming a regional leader.” And it is entirely possible that “the very Russian globalism of recent years can be viewed as a kind of political compensation for Moscow’s many failures in its attempts” to build more constructive and stable relations with its neighbors."
https://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-real-collapse-of-ussr-is-taking.html
29. "The argument of my book, which is about avoidable war, and avoiding such a war through managed strategic competition and a framework to identify the strategic red lines between them, to allow nonlethal competition between the U.S. and China while still carving out space for strategic cooperation in areas like climate change, I think all that’s possible.
It’s difficult given a hawkish Congress in the United States, and difficult also given the number of hawks who inhabit the halls of power in Beijing as well.
But I don’t see it in the interests of either country to proceed down a path in the absence of such a mechanism, which would run the risk of blowing each other’s heads off if you have crises, escalation, conflict or war."
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/04/05/why-china-stands-firmly-with-russia-for-now
30. “New Roaring ’20s” is a big Faster, Please! theme, and I will concede that the 2020s have been kind of a bummer so far. The worst pandemic in a century. A mini-depression. War in Europe.
Of course, the original Roaring ’20s, the 1920s, didn’t start out so well, either. Europe was recovering from the Great War, and the world from the Great Influenza. Economically, the 1920s began with its own thoroughly nasty mini-depression. Output fell by nearly 10 percent, stock prices were cut almost in half, and unemployment surged to about a fifth of the labor force. (In The Forgotten Depression, financial journalist James Grant points out the “bitterly sardonic” lyrics of the 1921 hit “Ain’t We Got Fun” were inspired by the decade’s depressionary start, not its later Jazz Age ebullience.)
Rapid economic growth, driven by big productivity gains, came later."
https://fasterplease.substack.com/p/-5-reasons-why-i-still-believe-in
31. This is a really good ad promoting Switzerland. Really clever.
32. This is pretty spot on and sounds right. Here we go. Can't outrun cycles.
https://twitter.com/mikekarnj/status/1516423887248150549
33. Always a great show. Must watch if you are founder trying to understand what is happening in fundraising for Silicon Valley & the public market.
Watch & learn.