Having Life Heroes: Modeling Behavior & Attitudes
Tony Robbins has trained some of the best athletes, soldiers and business people in the world. What he says is that you don’t learn or copy those who are equal to you. You model the behavior of those at the top of their game in whatever the field is. So for example, if you want to learn shooting, do exactly what the top shooters do.
The best way to do this is spend time with, get mentoring and train directly from these people.
But in this day and age of the Internet, with the plethora of books, blogs, podcasts & video interviews online, you can learn from these folks without even meeting or knowing them.
I’ve long been a follower of the media personalities Joe Rogan & Tim Ferriss, tech investors and operators: Kevin Rose, Naval Ravikant, Elad Gil, Chamath Palatpapitya and the late and great writer, tv & travel personality Anthony Bourdain. All incredibly accomplished and interesting individuals operating at the highest levels of their chosen professions.
I also believe these hero models don’t need to be real humans either but can also be characters in tv shows or movies. I’m personally inspired by & drawn to characters like the street savvy, cool and collected Han (played by Sung Kang) from “Fast & Furious: Tokyo Drift”, Humphrey Bogart’s tough but sentimental character Rick Blaine in Casablanca. Who can beat the charming, clever, insightful & insouciant Patrick Jane of the “The Mentalist”. I also love the witty and seriously interesting Dos Equus “Worlds Most interesting Man.” At a practical level, who can beat the fighting skills of Jason Bourne & Bruce Wayne aka Batman, or the ruthless effectiveness of hedge fund billionaire Bobby Axelrod in “Billions”??
By mixing & modeling these various heroes (real life or not) you can come up with your own personality archetype, unique to yourself. We humans are amazing copy monkeys so why not leverage this trait & instinct to get you closer to a better future self.
It’s an important step to get closer to your own authentic life. This way you can fulfill the advice and end goal that my friend & top investor Mike Maples Jr. shared with me, “Don’t have Heroes, Be your own Hero.”
“What’s the Point of Having F-ck You Money, If you don’t say F-ck You”: The Case for Chasing Financial Independence
The line “What’s the point of Having F-ck You money if you never say F-ck You” comes from a confrontation between the billionaire and District Attorney main characters, a very famous scene in the first episode of hit TV series “Billions”. (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1WHZQR1tZA)
Of course, I loved this scene and it’s stuck with me since then. Having F-ck you money is important, especially in a money driven place like America. Money for the healthcare emergencies (especially in America which has the most disastrous healthcare systems in the developed world). Money to afford a house in a good school district for your kids. Money to invest and build assets. Money to help family and friends in emergencies. Money to support charities and political movements you believe in.
Additionally you get to spend the time doing what you want, working at places and with people you want to. Not need to tolerate bad behavior, politics and incompetence. You can literally tell them F-CK YOU!
I remember a time in Silicon Valley when FU money was $20M usd. My take is that it’s probably at least $50M usd now. Inflation I guess. Plus the crazy expensive place the San Francisco Bay Area has become despite a declining quality of life and increasing taxes.
But actually I don’t think you need that much to enjoy the principal & freedom of FU Money.
Living beneath your means by managing your cost structure and not living paycheck to paycheck would be a good start.
The concept of geo-arbitrage helps here: doing business and earning in expensive markets & currencies (USA & Eurozone), while living in lower cost countries with a still very good quality of life. Mexico, Thailand, Ukraine, Turkey, Georgia & Portugal all come to my mind here.
FU money could mean just having 12 months of cold hard cash in the bank. I make the case here: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/the-first-step-and-goal-for-everyone
My point is that the stage of FU money is obtainable: you do not need billions of dollars or even millions to get there. Trust me here. It’s within reach of anyone with self-discipline to fight the hedonistic treadmill. That and a half decent job. Even more likely if you have a high paying job in tech or Wall Street and a willingness to work hard and sacrifice for a period of time.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 8th, 2022
“When we least expect it, life sets us a challenge to test our courage and willingness to change.”--Paulo Coelho
"People do argue why would Putin kill the golden goose - if he cuts gas supplies to Europe, it’s not as though he can easily divert this supply elsewhere. He either has to divert into storage which will fill quickly, flare (oil derived gas) or simply cut production. There is a financial hit to Russia - but does he care given he will assume this business is dying anyway.
And perhaps having withstood the first sanction impact, having stabilised the ruble, he thinks he is well set for another round of geopolitical battles with the West over Ukraine but played out in energy markets."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-would-nt-cut-off-gas-supplies
2. Friedman is an American bull so take it with grain of salt but he has been very prescient in his writing over the last decade and half. So worth watching for geopolitical insights. He is bullish on Japan, Turkey, Poland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHJs__xlel0
3. Scary new face of war. Cyberwar turned kinetic.
Russia getting a taste of what they have done all over the world, especially to Eastern European countries like Finland, Estonia & Ukraine of course.
https://jeffreycarr.substack.com/p/gurmo-hackers-go-kinetic-against
4. Always interesting macroeconomic view with a crypto lens.
"Given that Russia exports significant amounts of energy and food to the world, the trade disruptions that raise transportation costs and thus prices will continue with no abatement. Please read the last two truly epic Zoltan Pozar pieces about how difficult and expensive it is to re-route commodities to willing buyers in the Global South now that Europe has cancelled Russian exports.
It will leave you convinced that higher prices are here to stay, and global growth — which is a derivative of the cost of energy– must slow. Therefore, slowing growth will take global equities down with it, unless buttressed by ample liquidity from central bankers who are supposed to be fighting inflation.
Let me repeat– the crypto capital markets are the only free markets left globally. As such, they will lead equities lower as we head into the downturn, and lead equities higher as we work our way out of it. Bitcoin and Ether will bottom well before the Fed acts and U-turns its policy from tight to loose."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-q-trap-f1a38312f00f
5. This is a pretty damn disturbing discussion albeit it was done March 22nd, so its 18 days later now & the situation in Ukraine has changed.
Zeihan always gives us food for thought for the longer geopolitical view.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdP01go8wdQ
6. "To me the Russia-Ukraine-US-other-countries dynamic is the most attention-grabbing part of the changing world order dynamic that is underway, but it is essentially just the first battle in what will be a long war for control of the world order. It is a very important battle because it will tell us 1) if Putin and Russia win or lose this first battle, 2) how powerful a weapon the American-led sanctions are, and 3) how other nations will align with either side or remain neutral.
The internal conflicts over wealth and values that are causing political conflicts that are so great that they threaten the domestic order of the United States and the enormous amount of debt and money creation that are reducing the value of debt and money are reshaping what money and stores of value are."
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-can-we-tell-first-battle-long-war-control-world-order-ray-dalio
7. "If we look past the nuclear weapons problem, then a prolonged conflict will favor the Ukrainians given the state of the Russian military. The repairs that Russia is implementing are turning its military into a Frankenstein Teddy bear with differently trained soldiers—even some trained for logistics being sent into combat units and vice versa—unfamiliar with each other, with low morale, and strangers to the unit commanders put together in the middle of an offensive campaign.
If I am correct in this analysis, then the Russian military is about to hit a new low in performance. This will further diminish its capabilities and would even provide a domestic political liability to Vladimir Putin. Under these circumstances, with our support, a Ukraine free and whole is a very attainable objective."
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/the-russian-frankenstein-teddy-bear
8. This is a must watch for what’s happening in commodities/food & energy markets. Also highlights the grossly incompetent energy policy in the west that needs to be fixed now. All for ESG unless it enables barbarians like Putin (ie. ahem Europe)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqBorMzO78g
9. This was a good discussion on potential deflationary environments coming & also sovereign individual from crypto perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgPSYgBtq1U
10. "De-Globalization is going to be one of, if not the most important thematic of the 2020s, and as such, it’s one we’ll be following closely and discussing regularly.
It’s likely to drive new investment in underutilized and often overlooked regions such as Latin America, it will impact every part of global supply chains affecting companies large and small (which in turn will affect every product you see in your immediate surroundings), it will generate new and significant amounts of economic growth for some countries/regions, at the expense of others, and it will shift domestic political policy and the geopolitical landscape for decades to come.
All of this, paired with the Weaponization of Money and Finance, will also lead major countries (mainly large Emerging Markets) to diversify their reserve holdings among a broader set of currencies, commodities, gold and maybe Bitcoin. These are all systemic changes that are happening slowly but fast and are dramatically changing the world around us, one quarter at a time.
This decade is set to be one of those rare moments in history where economics, finance, domestic politics, and geopolitics will all collide, resulting in significant changes to our basic understanding of an interconnected world. Interesting times ahead."
https://www.thelykeion.com/markets-in-q1-inflation-energy-and-de-globalization
11. "If you hit $10,000,000 USTT in net worth, do you think your “friends” will expect you to pay the bills? How about your relatives who told you that you would fail? You know the answer, so why make it public
If you have been watching the world unfold (outside Florida and Texas which are seeing prosperity), do you think it is wise to wear a $200,000 watch and post it on the Gram? You know the answer, so why increase risk of robbery
If you understand the above, why would you want to pretend to be rich and become a public figure? You know the answer, to sell you the dream. No rich guy wants you to know he is rich. The rich guys who want you to think they are rich are hoping you follow them like puppy dogs"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/in-case-you-were-wondering-its-all
12. This is good advice for the Democrats. Too bad they probably won't follow it. Progressive morons.
Yes, I voted for Democrats not because I like them but because they are less worse than Republicans.
But they are all grifters. Just voting for the one less grifty & medieval....man the system is broken.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/democrats-need-to-run-on-the-war
13. This seems pretty spot on. We've lost touch with the important basics in America: food, energy & water.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNIPYuEFFFY
14. This is a smart fella. So many nuggets in this long discussion.
"What I have learned, and the way we operate, is we have the solo decision-maker model. One of the general partners will sponsor an investment and we will have a vigorous discussion, which I think is important; you want to get to the truth and not to delude yourself. I believe it is very important to have individual decision-makers who are closest to the topic and know it the best, not have decisions by committee.
I think that is the number one failure mode in venture capital. I don’t know other areas of investment, but I am guessing it is also the failure mode for those areas, and a general failure mode in management. I believe the same way for recruiting. We have what we call the Ocean’s 11 model; there are the people that blow stuff up and there are the people that do the backflips. If you went and tried to find an all-around great person, you would have a different group than if you went out and said, “I want to get a specialist in each area.”
"I view the internet today as millions of subcommunities. I think NFTs are a way for subcommunities to have cultural artifacts and create little economies within them. It is a big world, so some of the popular existing ones will go awry, but my bet is that there will be many positive communities."
"I think the fortunate thing is that securities laws and the ethos of Web3 happen to align, and that they both want highly decentralized networks. We try to encourage people when they are in this space to build it in the right way — similar to Bitcoin and Ethereum — where it is truly owned and operated by the community, and not by the original creators of the system. Ideally, everybody is 100% aligned by owning tokens. Ultimately, many of these projects should not even have companies, they should just be like Linux."
15. All of this makes sense now when you look at present underperformance of Russian orc army right now. (and the out performance of Ukrainian army).
16. "To be clear, China deported much of our media over a year ago, and mostly what we’re relying on now for information in the country is social, comprised of what could be anything from misinformation to propaganda to errors in translation.
But it looks like the simple act of singing, in protest from a starving city locked indoors allegedly in the middle of a new viral outbreak, is being suppressed. “Please comply with Covid restrictions,” implores the voice of Robotic Hell Karen via drone. “Control your soul’s desire for freedom.”
This must never be America.
Powerful people aren’t interested in solving the problem of “misinformation.” Powerful people are interested in suppressing dissent. The end. Full stop. It’s this.
It will always just be this."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/freedom-is-for-nazis
17. Incredibly valuable. Andy drops lots of wisdom here for anyone living in high stress world of Startups (and high stress modern world in general). Worth a read.
"However, since I decided to take a major step back to focus on my health and not continue with the same stressful lifestyle, I am no longer earning nearly that much per year.
Yet it was worth it. Within 30 days of making several major lifestyle changes to focus on my health, my level of blood cortisol, a dominant stress hormone, dropped by 30%. And I finally had months of dedicated time to work through the childhood trauma that had been taxing my nervous system for decades.
That’s the beauty of knowing when to say “enough is enough.” Given my modest lifestyle goals and my desire to focus on my health, I was able to call it quits with the stress of running high-growth startups and give my nervous system the rest that it desperately needed. And I was able to make a complete investment in the other aspects of my life that had been neglected for years."
"There will be times when it makes sense to push very hard on career growth, so long as it aligns with the vision you have for your future and respects the boundaries of your personal range of tolerance.
The purpose of life isn’t to sacrifice our well-being. The purpose of life is to flourish."
https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-know-when-to-stop
18. "This is why I don’t think one should overestimate the fighting capability of Russian forces from seeing some crazy martial arts stunts, or guys that knock you out in one punch. Modern wars are not fought with fists. The effectiveness of a military is down to a lot of boring and mundane stuff. Do you have working logistics? Russian forces seem to have run out of both fuel and food, thus halting their progress. Trucks broke down because they were not maintained properly before the invasion.
Stuff like that was very strongly emphasized in Norway when I served over 20 years ago. We spent a huge amount of time on maintenance and inspection of equipment. It is not cool action stuff, but if you don’t get this kind of stuff right, your equipment will break down in war and you will run out of key supplies and components.
Coordination and teamwork is paramount. Some of that is cultural. I only have a small sample, but when playing online shooter games where team work is important, I always enjoy being on a team with Germans. They always seems to have a plan, communicate it effectively, and stay committed to carrying it out. Other people may be more prone to leave to be a hero doing their own thing.
This has been written about in WWII as well. A lot of German effectiveness came from good coordination between troops. Russians downplayed this with their tanks. While Germans coordinated their tanks through radio communications, this was often not the case with Russian tanks."
https://medium.com/@erik-engheim/the-russian-paper-tiger-military-f7ceb8302cba
19. This is absolutely nuts. Poor dude: 3 month quarantine in China. Bad luck and ritarded zero Covid policy in China.
https://news.yahoo.com/u-china-3-month-quarantine-115856183.html
20. "Firstly, democracy matters. The contrast between Russia and Ukraine goes back at least to the Baroque Age. Ukraine’s traditions of decentralised power and suspicion of the state are rooted in the old Cossack zeal for individual and group liberty. Ukraine never developed the traditions of a strong imperial state.
In the struggle against Russia, this has proved a great advantage: while Putin leads his army from an empty ballroom in the Kremlin, Zelensky visits the wounded in the hospitals and walks the city streets at night. The president is a servant of the people, not the other way around."
"It is this deep love of light and hatred of darkness that has turned Ukrainians into contemporary heroes for so many people from Europe to India, Africa or Japan. Glory to the heroes."
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/ukraine-russia-war-liberty-freedom-unites-all-b994145.html
21. This is a massive deal & major blow to the Russian economy. Maersk: world’s largest shipping co leaving Russia.
https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1514313609463189511
22. This is a very solid episode. Learning about what's up in Crypto and gaming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57JKkmcvOXo
23. This seems very prudent. Finland has been smart about this unlike most of Western Europe. If you want peace, prepare for war.
https://news.yahoo.com/guns-bomb-shelters-anti-radiation-061634200.html
24. Good observations on venture capital.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kwharrison13/status/1513972170682036224
25. Pakistan Startup scene is on fire. #ZaynCapital
26. This is so damn true. Low burn rate is the key to optionality and happiness in life.
https://hunterwalk.medium.com/keep-your-personal-burn-rate-low-to-maximize-your-options-452a956bf9a8
27. "Putin’s personal humiliation may be well deserved, but a humiliated Russia is a grave threat to international peace and security. A vision of a better peace in Europe is now more essential than ever before—not merely a ceasefire or an end to atrocities and occupation, but a just and therefore enduring political order.
The United States, still the indispensable nation, must lead the West in shaping that peace. That peace cannot include Vladimir Putin or the generals who committed war crimes in his name and under his orders.
However, that peace must include Russia. When the Soviet Union justly disintegrated, President George H.W. Bush envisioned “Europe whole and free and at peace.” That vision is as vital today as it was 30 years ago. Russia is a European nation, and peace in Europe must embrace Russia as vital a part of Europe."
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/04/lasting-peace-europe-must-embrace-russia/364130
28. "PayPal isn't the only company to build a tech mafia. There are a number of companies that have produced a huge amount of high quality talent like Stripe (though they probably don't love getting referred to as a mafia anymore), Segment, Dropbox, Apple, and Airbnb.
Other companies like Figma will likely see their own alumni networks spread out and build more world-class companies once they have more time. A lot of the best people at Figma are still there basking in the glory of their meteoric rise. If a tech mafia is the outcome of a high concentration of talent then the input is a successful talent vortex."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/talent-vortex
29. "The plan also calls for the construction of more renewable energy projects, the burning of more coal and heavy fuel oil (although the EU’s dependence on Russia for these materials calls into question the wisdom and viability of this approach), developing of more biogas, and implementing a significant energy conservation drive. Here, the plan feels long on ambition and short on details, except for the whole “using less” part.
We close with something that is frustratingly absent from Europe’s current thinking (at least at the continent level): a nuclear energy renaissance. According to an admittedly ambitious plan from RePlanet called Switch Off Putin: Ukraine Energy Solidarity Plan, by simply arresting and reversing the nuclear phase-out underway in Germany, Sweden, and Belgium, Europe can offset 1.4 bcf/d of Russian gas (or approximately 10% of the gap)."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/measure-twice-sizing-europes-natural
30. "One does not need psychic powers of prediction to see where this leads. Each act of willpower and bravery by one country creates a precedent for another country to do a bit more. Only an outright US veto could (perhaps) hold back Ukraine’s friends from providing larger quantities of heavier and more lethal weapons.
The result: few talk now of Ukrainian defeat. The consensus prediction is a bloody months-long stalemate. But on the ground, Russia is retreating — and the hideous cost of its occupation is becoming clear.
That creates a kind of virtuous circle. The better Ukraine is doing, the easier it is to justify taking risks on its behalf. As more barbaric behavior by Russia is revealed, the greater the urgency, and the moral case, for doing more. And the more weapons Ukraine gets, the better its armed forces fare."
https://cepa.org/the-art-of-the-possible
31. "Humor in Ukraine is now mainly of the darkest kind. At certain moments, Zelensky appeared stunned by the cruelty of it all. He tried to explain why he cannot feel—why most Ukrainians cannot feel—much sense of satisfaction in their underdog battlefield victories.
Yes, they expelled the mighty Russian army from the northern part of the country. Yes, they killed, by their count, more than 19,000 Russian soldiers. Yes, they claim to have captured, destroyed, or damaged more than 600 tanks. Yes, they say they’ve sunk the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Yes, they changed the image of their country, and their understanding of themselves. But the price has been colossal.
Too many Ukrainians, Zelensky told us, died not in battle, but “in the act of torture.” Children got frostbite hiding in cellars; women were raped; elderly people died of starvation; pedestrians were shot down in the street. “How will these people be able to enjoy the victory?” he asked. “They will not be able to do to the Russian soldiers what [the Russians] did to their children or daughters … so they do not feel this victory.” Real victory, he said, will come only when the perpetrators are tried, convicted, and sentenced."
32. This is a pretty good one. Lots to digest here: Coming world famine & recession, growing CCP world influence if they play their cards well.
The Human Law of Unintended Consequences: How the Road to Hell is Paved with Good Intentions
It’s interesting if you look at the major social movements or even big events in history.
Whether it’s things like Communism/Socialism, Nationalism or even Progressivism & Environmentalism in this recent age.
It almost always starts off with noble goals. Communism/Socialism is about bringing equality in society where the mass of the population who were being left behind. Environmentalism was about taking care of the long abused planet we live in where the natural ecosystem has been decimated and plundered by man. Reducing our carbon footprint would be critical for lowering global warming effects. Progressivism is about raising awareness of privilege and trying to equalize opportunity for long ignored and overlooked genders, races and backgrounds.
Who can argue with any of this?
But too much of a good thing becomes a bad thing. Too many vitamins turn into toxins.
Somewhere along the lines these movements get abused as idiots, sociopaths, status seekers and fanatics who take it to the extremes. Communism has led to crazy amounts of tragic death through violent excesses during the Soviet Union such as Stalin’s Purges, Holodomor in Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor) and CCP in China from the great famine and the purges of Cultural Revolutions (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution).
Progressivism has led to Woke Cancel culture spreading like a plague in most of the Western world. Environmentalism has turned into this somewhat anti-human movement. And stupid ESG (Environmental, Social & Corporate Governance) policies have led to underinvestment in fossil fuels and over investment in presently not reliable greentech. This is leading to massive gaps of energy for growing economies, leading to both dependence on dictatorial countries that do not share our values & gaping holes in energy supplies that will directly lead to mass human deaths. (This is worth reading more on: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/why-are-cows-sacred & watching this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atCXhFiveeg)
We see this effect even directly in our own lives. Why are most rich kids useless? Well, most self made and newly rich parents hope to spare their children all the scarcity and challenges they had growing up. The irony is that by doing so, their children grow up either entitled or unable to deal with inevitable issues that come up in life. By hiding them from any possible pain, they face an even more delayed pain later.
Personally, I am in the midst of undoing some of this in my own life. I have always prioritized work and business over family because I grew up without much money. This led me to the view that financial stability and financial resources were critical to a good homelife. This by itself I believe is very honorable: That’s what you are supposed to do!
The problem is when you take it to the extreme like I have. You end up spending little time with the family you are supposed to be taking care of. I spend almost 50% of time on the road and always have since 2003. I remember when I was at Yahoo!, people would call my wife, the Yahoo! widow. I also missed so much time with my daughter in her first 10 years when she really needed me and wanted me in her life. As a tween, she does not need me as much anymore. All of this has definitely and directly led to my now very damaged home & family life.
I don’t have any real answers here as I’m working through all this myself. Recognizing something is a problem is the first step in trying to fix it.
But I sometimes wonder if this drive to extremism is just a natural state of the human condition. This is why it’s so important to question everything you hear and read, and learn to think for yourself and not get caught in the “Animal Spirits” of mass movements or societal and personal beliefs you inherit.
The Inevitable Great Reckoning: An American Story and A Personal One
As a long time student of geopolitics, it’s been distressing watching the slow decline of my adopted country the USA. As a hyper power, it strode like a colossus across the world during the 90s: dominant on the military, economic and soft power spheres. Fast forward 30 years, the USA is a very different place. Due to disastrous wars in Iraq & Afghanistan, bad central bank and regulatory policies; with a damaged reputation, tired & inward looking while we see the rise of peer competitors. Yet, this country is still either in “Cope” mode or living the dreamland of the US being the clear number 1 in the world. We are Number 1 for now but clearly declining.
We’ve had it so good for so long that we’ve gotten weak. Comfort & complacency are literally killing us. Diabetes and obesity as well as the stupid cultural wars happening are diseases of luxury and prosperity aka #Firstworldproblems. This happened in Spain in the 1600s at their peak. This happened to France during the 1700s & early 1800s. The British in the early 20th century. Heck, it happened to almost every major empire in the world.
I think a lot about my career and life prior to 2020. It was a dreamland, I had the luck and fortune to be in the tech industry during its rise to prominence and dominance. I loved what I did but frankly I was living mostly paycheck to paycheck. Yes, I had a high net worth and assets but I was Illiquid and over reliant on single source of income with a stupidly high cost structure and limited reserves. I was very over-geared.
I knew all this but due to things getting better every year for most of my career prior to 2020, I was complacent and locked in a loop. But as the saying goes, “Life is like a credit card, It’s all fun using it until you get the bill.”
Despite a wonderful start in the first 2 months of 2020, the pandemic and reality hit me hard. I highlighted some of this in previous posts such as https://hardfork.substack.com/p/going-to-monk-mode. 2020 ripped open and exposed the flaws in my thinking & the system that I had built (or lack thereof). Talk about a wake up call.
The point is that you can’t hide from reality. It always catches up to you. You literally reap what you sow. If you have bad eating habits and don’t exercise, you will pay for it with your health later. If you don’t manage your money well, you will face economic challenges eventually. You don’t invest the time in nurturing your relationships, why would anyone look to help you when you need it?
I learned all this in 2020. And as usual, it was all self-inflicted and due to my lack of imagination and courage. The situation was so bad, I literally could not hide from it anymore. Pain, whether emotional or physical, is Information.
So while 2020 sucked, it did force me to completely change my mindset, my attitudes & habits. Pretty much my entire life. I had no choice. Adapt or die. In fact, it helped me understand why so few people succeed in life.
It’s because they are unwilling to take the hard decisions they know they need to make. They are also unwilling to consistently do the hard work. All this stems from too much comfort and an unwillingness to face their reality. They don’t want to take the upfront pain needed to make the transition.
But unfortunately as per Socrates famous dictum: “An Unexamined Life is not Worth Living.” This is incredibly true in this day and age. At the National level and even in our own lives right now. And there is no way to hide. You have to take personal responsibility for fixing your own life immediately or else you face an eventual reckoning. And like the compounding interest of a credit card bill, the longer you put it off, the more painful it will be.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads May 1st, 2022
“If it doesn’t challenge you it doesn’t change you.”--Fred Devito
This seems like a very big hole to close re: Western sanctions on Russia. But expect a cut off of European Natural gas buys with more news of awful atrocities done by Russian army against Ukrainian civilians.
"There are big risks to all this government intervention. The protectionist measures enacted by the Central Bank of Russia are effectively a kind of bridge for the ruble.
If Russia manages to come to some kind of resolution over Ukraine that involves the withdrawal of sanctions and the reestablishment of trade relations with the West, then the ruble might hold its current value once the measures are withdrawn.
If the measures are withdrawn without some kind of resolution, however, the ruble could collapse, hammering the economy, jacking up inflation and causing enormous pain to the Russian people. And the measures — some of them, at least — will have to be withdrawn eventually. Russian borrowers can't keep paying interest rates of more than 20% for long, if they can even conceive of borrowing at that rate. Growth will be stifled — the Russian economy is already expected to contract by more than 8% this year — and industry will slump."
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble
2. Hope he is right.
https://twitter.com/EliotACohen/status/1511817267989954562
3. "SaaS wisdom teaches us narrow lessons: start by conquering a narrow market and expand from there, add at least as much in ARR as you burn each year, and build your product either horizontally or vertically.
Rippling rejects these norms entirely. It ignores the mimetic warfare of the Gartner quadrant. Its wedge was a data asset, not a narrow product. It doesn’t let SaaS metrics dictate its strategy.
Reminiscent of the foundational computing companies, Rippling shows what ambition in modern business software looks like. In the age of software incrementalism, Rippling is an anachronism.
With ambition comes volatility, simultaneously enabling outsized success and idiosyncratic risk.
An ambitious product strategy means an expansionary surface area, like the Roman Empire. It can become vast, but is expensive to build, there is far more territory to defend against competition, and you can burn employees out along the way.
But if Rippling works, it shrinks the administrative drag on American business."
https://luttig.substack.com/p/rippling
4. "And yet, the 57-year-old Israeli-American has quietly become a player in venture capital, despite operating as a one-man shop and having a tendency toward bluntness in conversation. In 2021 alone, Zeev—whose limited partners include Peter Thiel and top university endowments—invested $683 million and backed 10 new startups across two new funds, Zeev told The Information, a pace that exceeds that of more established VC firms.
Around 80% of that money went to doubling and tripling down on earlier startup investments, according to fund documents viewed by The Information. That’s an unusual approach for a solo investor.
Zeev said he has no intention of hiring more partners for his venture operation, despite the expanding size of his funds. The spoils that come with solo investing aren’t the only reason why. Zeev believes the typical VC partnership, with its relatively small size and shared decision-making, doesn’t provide any unique advantage to entrepreneurs.
“Either you go all the way and you build an Andreessen [Horowitz] with a huge infrastructure and processes that really can help [founders]. Or you might as well gather on the other end of the spectrum,” he said. “The middle is the worst. You get the worst of both sides.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/solo-venture-capitalist-oren-zeev-opens-his-books
5. "The world is awash in conversations about supportive and toxic environments, to the point where the words have nearly lost all meaning. But there’s a reason why people talk about it so much: it’s important. If you need a reminder, just watch these two shows side by side. One will leave you feeling the warm and fuzzies of a wedding or baby shower, the other will make you feel like you just escaped the high-school cafeteria of your nightmares.
Human nature isn’t pure evil or good. We do not always cooperate or always defect. Both strategies are available to us, and emerge in any given situation based on a complex interplay of factors like resource scarcity, information transparency, etc. But we do have some influence over what sort of environment we create, in two ways:
1. How we play shapes how others play
2. Where we play shapes what games matter"
https://every.to/divinations/friendly-competition-and-subtle-defection
6. Not sure I agree with all of this. But an interesting view on Bitcoin from Peter Thiel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eQNb5HPzB0
7. This is good stuff for single person room clearing. Will be useful one day. Thank u Internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuYNpTYJb7k
8. "Europe faces non-political headwinds, too. The biggest and most stubborn is its ageing workforce, which puts a cap on domestic demand. That forces the continent's exporters to seek markets outside Europe, Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macro told us, likely limiting much economic rebalancing toward domestic consumption.
For these and other reasons, transformation in Europe has always been slow, painful, or both. But greater fiscal union, higher investment and a more balanced economy are the way for Europe to close the gap with the US, and finally reward investors for betting on the continent.The twin crises of pandemic and war have opened the door to substantial change."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-unhedged-3-is-a-bull-market
9. “Work will always be work. Some people work doing what they love. Other people work so that they can do what they love when they’re not working. Neither is more noble.”
That last sentence shook me. Until that day, I believed figuring out what to do for work was life’s ultimate mission. I had interpreted Annie Dillard’s words—how we spend our days is, of course, how we live our lives—to mean that my chosen work would define not just what I did, but who I was.
Much as an investor benefits from diversifying their investments, we too benefit from diversifying the sources of meaning and purpose in our lives. The question is: how?
Meaning is not something that is bestowed upon us—it’s something we create. And as with any act of creation, it requires time and energy. One of the downsides of a life completely subsumed by work is that it leaves room for little else. In the words of psychologist Esther Perel, “Too many people bring the best of themselves to work and bring the leftovers home.”
When we give all of our energy to our professional lives, we deprive the other identities that exist within each of us—parent, sibling, neighbor, friend, citizen, artist, traveler—of the nutrients to grow."
https://every.to/superorganizers/against-ikigai
10. Thread on potential strategies on war in Ukraine. Ukraine will win but it's going to cost lots of civilian casualties as the barbarian Russian army becomes even more brutal and indiscriminate.
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1512787305416769536
11. Live by hype, die by hype. It’s what happens at the top of a cycle.
"Several rank-and-file workers, whom the company referred to as "Fastronauts," told NPR they had noticed Holland pouring significant money into deals aimed at creating marketing buzz, like partnerships with sports teams. They questioned the benefits.
"With Fast," said one former employee who requested anonymity out of fear of retaliation. "It was like, 'how quickly can we set money on fire?'"
12. More on Fast. Fake it till you make works, until it doesn't.
"We waited too long and we ran out of money," said the employee, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the situation. Fast "misjudged significantly" the mood in the VC community, he added: "What was acceptable revenue and burn and prospects for growth in the summer of 2021 looks very different in April of 2022."
https://www.protocol.com/bulletins/fast-checkout-shutdown
13. This is always a good show on what’s up in the technology business. All in Podcast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=th7SiVmxU2s
14. Interesting take on the failure at FAST. Always lessons to be learned.
https://twitter.com/theryanking/status/1512833718859313156
15. Bullish on Uranium stocks.
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/sitting-down-with-sprott
16. "While individual founders can't really influence overall customer demand, there are factors you can control:
-The product category they choose (most important)
-How they differentiate their product competitively
-Their skills, network, resources, experiences
-Efficiency + effectiveness of marketing
-How they control costs
-How they evolve
The most important choice you make will be which product category you decide to pursue. Is there sufficient demand in that market? Are lots of people searching for a solution? Are there new customers being born every day?
Build a product that people are already searching for, in a category where you have some built-in advantages."
https://justinjackson.ca/customer-demand
17. "It is only the sedentary populations that are creators of arts, commerce and stable legal rules. The danger however is that nomadic populations are often militarily stronger since their way of life predisposes them to be braver and better warriors. Hence a danger permanently looms over the rather fragile fruits of human civilization."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/ibn-khaldoun-and-nikolay-trubetskoy
18. "The harsh reality that Russia’s dazed invaders came up against - at least as far as our media allow us to glimpse it - was Ukrainian resistance backed by unexpectedly significant support by NATO.
So if the Ukraine war marks a a break, to put the emphasis on Putin may be misguided. If the honor of rekindling history, of “returning us to the 19th century” belongs to anyone, it is not to Bunga-Putin. That honor belongs to the Ukrainians.
It is the Ukrainians, to the amazement and not inconsiderable embarrassment of the West, who are enacting a drama of national resistance unto death. Under Russian attack, they are bonding together and demanding recognition of their sovereignty. There are many other peoples who are struggling for their existence and recognition today.
The difference is that the Ukrainians do so in the classic form of a nation in arms rallying around a nation state. And the Ukrainians do so efficaciously. They have turned back a Russian army. They have saved their capital city. Those are not merely symbolic achievements."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-109-war-at-the-end-of-history
19. "We often say famously not without good. The war is a tragedy of the Ukrainian people. But we will not only survive, but also become stronger. After the end of the war, after the victory, Ukrainian fintech will become unbreakable. In fact, it is expected to integrate into Europe with the inflow of investment and increased profitability. Unfortunately, not everyone will be able to survive the war. But those startups that survive will be the most desirable targets for investment in Europe."
20. "But one thing Russia's ill-fated foray into Ukraine has shown is that with enough outside support, an extremely motivated, highly trained, and well-equipped indigenous force can fend off an invading superpower's army and make any victory a Pyrrhic one. Pentagon planners often warn against "fighting the last war" — overcorrecting for past mistakes instead of realizing all wars are different."
21. "The Ukrainian way of war is a coherent, intelligent, and well-conceived strategy to fight the Russians, one well calibrated to take advantage of specific Russian weaknesses.
It has allowed the Ukrainians to maintain mobility, helped force the Russians into static positions for long periods by fouling up their logistics, opened up the Russians to high losses from attrition, and, in the Battle of Kyiv, led to a victory that has completely recast the political endgame of the Russian invasion.
The original maximalist Russian attempt to seize all of Ukraine has been drastically scaled back to a far more limited effort aimed at seizing territory in the east and south of the country."
22. These are brave, amazing people. What a great story. Startup skills are useful in Ukraine in the war against the Russian army orcs.
https://www.inc.com/melissa-angell/zaporizhzhia-andrey-liscovich.html
23. "You can start by simply writing a journal entry as though you’re living through a future threat — whether it’s a new pandemic, a climate disaster, an incoming asteroid, or an emerging technology gone awry.
Ask yourself questions like: What will I feel in this future? What will I and others need most? How will I use my unique strengths to help others?
Questions like these spark a “learned helpfulness” process that can make you feel empowered as you look ahead."
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22995009/future-pandemic-simulations-jane-mcgonigal
24. "Prices for food commodities like grains and vegetable oils reached their highest levels ever last month largely because of Russia's war in Ukraine and the “massive supply disruptions” it is causing, threatening millions of people in Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere with hunger and malnourishment, the United Nations said Friday.
The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said its Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of commodities, averaged 159.3 points last month, up 12.6% from February. As it is, the February index was the highest level since its inception in 1990.
FAO said the war in Ukraine was largely responsible for the 17.1% rise in the price of grains, including wheat and others like oats, barley and corn. Together, Russia and Ukraine account for around 30% and 20% of global wheat and corn exports, respectively."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/food-prices-soar-record-levels-094243997.html
25. We need to do more to support Ukraine against the barbaric Russian invasion. These are brave men on the frontlines defending their country & democracy against an autocratic evil.
Cut off the Russian oil purchases and send more weapons to Ukraine.
"I ask what the marines think about foreign support for their country. Will NATO “close the skies” over Ukraine, they ask. Almost everyone in the country asks this question. I say I know as much as they do, that Western leaders are afraid a “no-fly zone” could lead to nuclear war. Oleg nods thoughtfully. Oleksiy sneers: “Well, we have already fought Russia for eight years without NATO, anyways.”
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/ukraine-war-marines-front-lines-1334770
26. In principle, think this is right. Don't like it but think it’s correct.
"The ending of the financially based system is being hastened by geopolitical developments. The West is desperately trying to sanction Russia into economic submission, but is only succeeding in driving up energy, commodity, and food prices against itself. Central banks will have no option but to inflate their currencies to pay for it all.
Russia is linking the rouble to commodity prices through a moving gold peg instead, and China has already demonstrated an understanding of the West’s inflationary game by having stockpiled commodities and essential grains for the last two years and allowed her currency to rise against the dollar."
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/commodity-currency-revolution-begins
27. Some interesting things happening on freight and supply chain stuff.
https://twitter.com/FreightAlley/status/1513145199802920972
28. "In other words, the perceived need for a higher salary and for higher prices to withstand future inflation leads to higher prices and higher salaries. And inflation keeps churning on.
This cycle is kind of like a game of musical chairs.
Businesses and people know inflation will end at some point, but they want to obtain the best possible outcome before it’s over. So they race around the circle faster and faster, asking for increasing wages and sending costs higher and higher.
The deeper inflationary psychology takes hold, the harder it is to shake off and the longer the cycle continues."
https://thehustle.co/why-thinking-about-inflation-leads-to-more-inflation
29. Everyone seems to believe China will overtake the USA. Maybe, but only because the USA screws it all up (which it is kind of doing right now) not because of Chinese growth. China has played their bad cards well in past, not sure anymore.
"In many ways, productivity growth is the thread that ties together the entire story of the Chinese economy since 2008. Basic economic theory says that eventually the growth benefits of capital accumulation hit a wall, and you have to improve technology and/or efficiency to keep growth going.
Some countries, like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, have done this successfully, and are now rich; other, like Thailand, failed to do it and are now languishing at the middle income level.
For several decades, Chinese productivity growth looked like Japan’s or Korea’s did. But slightly before Xi came to power, it downshifted to look a bit more like Thailand."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/five-reasons-chinas-productivity
30. "While the West has imposed unprecedented levels of sanctions against the Russian economy, Russia’s Central Bank has jacked up interest rates to 20% and the Kremlin has imposed strict capital controls on those wishing to exchange their rubles for dollars or euros.
It’s a monetary defense Putin may not be able to sustain as long-term sanctions weigh down the Russian economy. But the ruble’s recovery could be a sign that the sanctions in their current form are not working as powerfully as Ukraine's allies counted on when it comes to pressuring Putin to pull his troops from Ukraine. It also could be a sign that Russia's efforts to artificially prop up its currency are working by leveraging its oil and gas sector.
“For Russia, everything is about their energy revenues. It’s half their federal budget. It’s the thing that props up Putin’s regime and the war,”
31. Go Ukraine! Slaiva Ukraini!
"If a single person can be credited with Ukraine’s surprising military successes so far — protecting Kyiv, the capital, and holding most other major cities amid an onslaught — it is Zaluzhnyy, a round-faced 48-year-old general who was born into a military family, and appointed as his country’s top uniformed commander by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July 2021. Zaluzhnny and other Ukrainian commanders had been preparing for a full-on war with Russia since 2014.
Zaluzhnyy has said that the Ukrainian military is filled with young, professional soldiers and future leaders. “These are completely different people — not like us when we were lieutenants. These are new sprouts that will completely change the army in five years. Almost everyone knows a foreign language well, works well with gadgets, they are well-read,” he told ArmyInform. “New sergeants. These are not scapegoats, as in the Russian army, for example, but real helpers who will soon replace officers.”
“We have already started this movement, and there is no way back,” he added. “Even society will not allow us to return to the army in 2013.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/08/ukraines-iron-general-zaluzhnyy-00023901
32. This is why Ukraine will win: the amazing people. But we need to help them against the barbaric Russian army.
#ArmUkrainenow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Vv30JAFcx4
33. This is a great episode this week. All in Podcast.
Counting the Uncountable: Power of Intangibles
We are now in Day 65 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, of what many people thought would be a 2-3 day action.
Thankfully that has not been the case. But how did so many analysts and experts get this so wrong?
When you put it on paper it should have been over very quickly: the Russian aggressor with the 4th or 5th most powerful military in the world and population of 140M people versus Ukraine, a country with 40M people and a military ranked number 22.
But what the experts could not account for were morale, leadership at the political & military institutions, professionalism of the officer corp and how the regular people stepped up to support and help the defense of the country Ie. unity. Pretty much aspects that were all underestimated on the Ukrainian side and widely overestimated on the Russian side. Based on the performance of the Russian army so far, they have clearly been in deficit from a military leadership, organizational, and morale perspective. Russian soldiers have been seen to be only effective in robbing, raping and brutalizing Ukrainian unarmed civilians. Oh yes, and also shelling cities from afar like the orcs they are.
Military veteran and expert Mick Ryan tweets some good points worth reading here:
https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1518018839610466304. There is also a very insightful interview here with ex-US Military Colonel Joel Rayburn in The New Yorker: https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-russian-military-a-paper-tiger. Net net: the Russian military is “a poor-quality military with poor-quality leadership and poor logistics—and seemingly highly inclined to corruption.”
Hence the situation we find ourselves now with Russia having lost the battle of Kyiv, lost the flagship of their Black Seas Fleet, lost 10 out of 20 generals and an estimated quarter of the military force sent into Ukraine. Russia seems to be cutting back on their larger objective of subsuming Ukraine as a sovereign country. We find Ukraine holding their own at a tactical and strategic level albeit at a horrendous price that saddens me.
It’s almost the same as when it’s a big corporation versus a startup. On paper, a big company should win with all the resources, people, brand and money. But its strength is also its weakness. The larger size leads to more process and usually bureaucracy & politics. A risk averse culture and zero focus and sense of urgency among the teams. All opposite to a good startup who has the opportunity to attack a problem with a blank piece of paper, a new orthogonal approach and lower cost structure that could upend the established business model. Also all the immeasurable soft stuff like culture, energy, mission, focus & morale.
The “Soft stuff” is the hard stuff as they say. There are so many critical things in war and in business you just cannot measure it. Like culture & leadership for example. How often have you looked at the balance sheet of a company and it looks incredibly healthy. But then you walk around the office or talk to people and you realize how incredibly broken the business or culture is? Way more times than I can count.
You cannot know how brave or capable someone is in a situation until it happens. I am personally in awe of my Ukrainian friends. With the proof of awful atrocities coming out of Bucha and Irpin against civilians by the barbaric Russian army, no Ukrainian will back down now. Neither should anyone supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggressors either.
I remind many of my Western friends, this should be no different than how any of us lucky people here would feel or do if someone came, invaded and attacked our home and family. I would hope we would stand up and fight too.
This is as close to a clear good and evil as anyone has seen in history in my view. It’s right (Ukraine) versus wrong (Russia) and anyone who says otherwise can unfriend me and F—k off.
So please continue to support Ukraine against the Rashists (Russian Fascists) army. This is not just an attack on Ukraine but an attack on the ideals of the Western liberal order, democracy, international law, sovereignty, morality and decency. The Russian army has had a long, evil tradition of raping and looting there way through Eastern Europe and Germany even back in World War 2. These modern day barbarians must be defeated.
Please support the Ukrainian Armed Forces: https://armysos.com.ua
Please support Ukrainian companies: https://spendwithukraine.com
Please support the organizations helping the estimated 5M Ukrainian refugees who have fled Ukraine for safety. These are very worthy Charities here: https://wck.org, https://help.rescue.org/donate/ukraine-acq, https://www.care.org & https://novaukraine.org.
And remember: do not discount the soft stuff like culture, morale and leadership as this is THE critical factor of success in anything you do or build. Slava Ukraini!
9 Meals to Crazy: The Real World Strikes Back
I live in the wonderful bubble of Silicon Valley where we focus on the future enabled by the technology that surrounds us. The problem is this bubble has hidden us to the real world. Yes, technology is amazing. I love the possibilities of a decentralized world through Crypto, or the new virtual World of the Metaverse. Or how amazing that Software is eating the world.
All really good stuff. But let’s use the First principles that everyone in SilIcon Valley talks about. What about the energy or electricity that enables this? If there is no power, there is no technology.
And let’s also not ignore something as basic as food? Not that crap like Soylent or crickets (okay I admit the ground up crickets actually are pretty good in cookies). But real food. The chicken, beef, bread, fruits, vegetables. People need to eat. And most groceries have less than 3 days of supply, reliant on a “Just in Time” system to get food from thousands of miles away. Do people remember the empty shelves of pasta back in March 2020 during the start of the pandemic?
In both of these key elements reliant on a cascading chain of dependencies and failure. highlighted by recent supply chain issues and freak weather occurrences. The winter storm in Texas that led to black outs in february 2021 for example. For food breakdowns, you can point to either shipping & insurance issues, bad crops from weather, rising costs of feed and fertilizer and geopolitical issues stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine of whom supplies food stuffs for a large portion of the world. (It is a top producer and exporter of Sunflower oil, 4th largest exporter of barley, corn and potatoes)
We, in the USA and Silicon Valley particularly, have taken both cheap food and energy for granted. It’s amazing to me that in their insularity, many technologists think that the rising inequality and increasing fuel and food prices will not affect them. Or they don’t consider this at all, which is strange to me. Especially when these folks fit the stereotype of techies being the least physically fit or capable people in a food riot, let alone societal breakdown.
This is a gross generalization of course as I know some very physically fit and well trained prepper type techies (and not so rich as they claim here) as per this New Yorker article: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/doomsday-prep-for-the-super-rich but the point still stands. And for the record for the folks who laughed at preppers back then, who is laughing now?! :)
The questions I ask people:
How are you going to order grocery delivery when you have no power?
Heck, do you think there will be any internet or telephone connection in this situation?
There will certainly not be any Doordashers or Uber Eats bringing you food.
This brings me to Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse”, where he covers how civilizations rise but over time become so specialized and overly complex. They become so fragile that when there is a big massive external change like weather or invasion or such, the society is unable to adapt and collapses. As per complexity theory, there is always a tipping point beyond the point of no recovery.
Yes, I believe in a bright, technology driven future of prosperity like that of Star Trek. But even in that timeline, Earth had to go through some awful challenges like their own version of World War 3: aka The Eugenics Wars featuring Khan Noonien Singh for those who loved “Star Trek 2: The Wrath of Khan”.
This is also why it’s incredibly important to have a prepper mindset. Be like the Mormons, who maintain community and store months of extra food. Canned, dry foods that keep & circulate. You save money by buying in bulk too. And in times of need, you can also help less prepared neighbors. Water stores are also quite invaluable for access to some via nature. Rain storage tanks are also good. I should add that you can survive for 7 days without food but no more than 3 without water.
This is also why I stress the importance of self defense skills and weapons. Guns in the case of the USA. If everyone else has a weapon, which sort of feels that way here having moved to America from Canada, it’s probably not a good idea to not have one. If only to defend yourself, your family and your goods. Learn how to use it properly. Training is key.
My point is we cannot ignore the real world in the long run. It has a way of biting us in the butt when we can least afford it. Building some level of slack in your system through a bit of self sufficiency will be important to weather any of the incoming and literal storms coming our way. It’s another form of insurance.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 24th, 2022
“Happy he who learns to bear what he cannot change.”- Friedrich Schiller
"Grains, and meats are experiencing unprecedented catastrophes resulting in both increased prices and shortages. Furthermore even if we could grow or produce more, the basic building blocks such a fertilizer are unavailable to help alleviate the shortages we face.
The Supply Chain is in shambles and the World will be feeling these effects for many years to come even if everything was fixed tomorrow. The unfortunate nature of the global supply chain is that we are all interdependent on each other; and the scale in which we are operating on is so vast that one hiccup has major knock on effects.
The shortages are real, the bears for once are right."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/on-the-shortages
2. I like seeing Canadians crushing it in America.
"Seed funded with $1.5 million by storied angel Ram Shriram among others, StumbleUpon would go on to be acquired several months later by eBay for $75 million.
Then Camp’s career really took off.
Within two years, Camp had bought back StumbleUpon with a syndicate of investors (he later folded the outfit into a newer discovery app called Mix). Around that same time, in 2009, Camp began tinkering in earnest with his idea for an on-demand car service — one that famously became Uber and which made Camp, who still owned 4% of it when Uber went public in 2019, a multibillionaire."
3. This is a very good discussion now whats happening with economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent sanctions. Good for anyone interested in global macro trends & investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNsW2zdXt9o
4. "Bitcoin does not have an implicit yield in BTC terms at the protocol level. Post-merge, ETH will. Therefore, Bitcoin is money, and ETH is a commodity-linked bond.
As global real rates are deeply negative, I want to own an asset that has a positive yield in its own currency — and at the moment, that is ETH. Bitcoin yields nothing. Therefore, from a pure interest rate differential perspective, I should own more ETH than Bitcoin. This will change when the price of ETH sufficiently rises to incorporate future ETH cash flows, due to the new rewards and validation system."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/five-ducking-digits-cd92a7ab72ce
5. This is sad that it's happening in this day & age. Especially to a place I love. (Curse Putin and his Russian Army Orcs) But this is worth watching.
Also my friend Alexander K. successful entrepreneur turned soldier in the territorial defense force is in this video. Slava Ukraini!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqIF2U4g7H8
6. One of the best shows in town (Silicon Valley town that is). Dorsey vs. Andreessen.
"Maybe the fight between the Bitcoin maximalist utopians and the crypto-promiscuous capitalists was always destined to blow up between Dorsey and Andreessen. Sure, they are both white male tech billionaires around the same age who made it big in Silicon Valley by coding.
But they grew up differently. They see the world, and themselves, differently. Andreessen thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room while Dorsey thinks he’s the most moral guy in the room. And no one fights as hard as people from the same tribe who want their tribe to go different places."
7. This is going to be ugly on energy and food front for next few years. Super high energy, grain & food prices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93JKT4LkUOo
8. Another story of affluent digital nomads angering the locals.
Still Mexico City is a really awesome underrated city. For visitors and nomads please be good guests there or anywhere.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22999722/mexico-city-pandemic-remote-work-gentrification
9. Good explanation for the disastrous performance of the Russian army orcs. Bad organization, riddled with corruption, with crap leadership and no real motivation.
10. Cannot believe people actually believe this stupid theory. But then again Greenwald is a complete shill and Putin fanboy. F--- that guy & Putin.
"The basic argument is that Putin’s announced war aims — the “de-Nazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine — weren’t a declaration of an intent to launch a regime change operation targeting Kyiv, as most analysts believe. Instead, Putin’s true objective was more limited: expanding Russian control over eastern Ukraine, with the attacks on Kyiv serving as a kind of feint to tie down Ukrainian forces.
“Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine, that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s),” Bret Stephens writes in the New York Times. Stephens is not alone in this: National Review’s Michael Brendan Dougherty and prominent Substacker Glenn Greenwald have both recently advanced versions of this claim.
Yet their arguments do not stand up to even light scrutiny: They are not consistent with the structure of Russia’s military campaign, public statements by Russian authorities, or even a basic cost-benefit analysis."
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23003689/putin-ukraine-russia-donbas-energy-feint
11. "Whatever Putin's aims, his military currently lacks the necessary manpower to sustain a protracted war. There is, however, a way he could change that.
In short, Putin could drop the pretence that Russia is conducting a "special military operation" in Ukraine, as opposed to fighting a war.
By declaring war, he could then mobilise Russians at a national level.
The problem is, doing so would contradict the information that has been fed to Russians since the beginning of the invasion. That makes it a political risk."
12. "From my perspective, I expect the Democrats to rely on their progressive playbook over the next few months. They’ll try to buy support using aggressive social spending programs while maintaining an aggressive anti-Russian/China stance. This will be a disastrous mixture for US economic hegemony.
It will ultimately harm the value of the dollar. The net result will be a new geopolitical dynamic with America, Europe, Russia, China, and India vying to split global dominance. And because of this fragmenting version of globalism, it will be a fertile ground for a new global reserve asset.
The moral of this story is that 2023 could prove to be Bitcoin’s spring. Can you imagine a better hedge for the coming months of uncertainty? In this timeframe expect rising inflation and additional waves of government stimulus which are likely to be within the US administrations playbook.
Bitcoin is the globalists hedge against rising nationalism, economic warfare, and an emergent multipolar future. The bottom line is that now seems like the idea time to accumulate in earnest."
https://dougantin.com/america-do-you-feel-in-charge
13. "If it is just a question of optics (hopefully so!), could it be that this off-balance sheet/outsourcing approach is now proving more expensive than the costs it was meant to save?
Does the outsourcing of space capabilities to private firms mean that war is effectively now being conducted by private firms? Have we tried to move war itself off-balance sheet? Can this be sustained? Will war itself ultimately embroil the superpowers and their proxies rather than just their off-balance-sheet assets? Will these off-balance-sheet and outsourced activities boomerang back onto government balance sheets, forcing central banks to catch these activities with their own balance sheet?
It seems strange to think the Fed might raise rates and face further additions to its balance sheet at the same time. But, this is possible."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-off-balance-sheet-world
14. First time I agree with this guy on anything. Fcuk the CCP & their enablers in West (ie. Hollywood & Wall Street).
"The CCP has taken the opportunity to showcase its technocratic authoritarian prowess, putting on a display that is proving to be the envy of the world’s tyrannical ruling class, which modeled their COVID responses from some form of the Wuhan lockdowns.
Of course, none of this has anything to do with science, as none of these measures actually do anything to stop a virus from spreading among a population, as proven through two years of data showing the failures of lockdowns. And the additional downsides of Wuhan-style lockdowns, both on an individual and societal level, remain obvious to any objective observer. Why China has decided to put on this pseudoscientific display once again — this time in Shanghai — remains a mystery."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/shanghai-under-lockdown-witness-the
15. "Why are people surprised here? This is the Russian way of war. They did this in WW2, Chechnya, and Syria.
The Russian army is brutal and not professional like what we know in the West. This is why Russia cannot be allowed to win."
https://news.yahoo.com/saw-horrific-things-ukrainians-recall-112305197.html
16. "This is one of the many reasons Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is so vividly horrific; the imagery seems borrowed from another time. Charred tanks, soldiers freezing while they wait to attack, civilians taking shelter or sifting through rubble, and the long columns of refugees — it all reminds us of that terrible past. It is also so at odds with modern expectations and standards that many are now remarking that the world will not be the same when this war is over."
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/04/01/tectonic-shifts-how-putins-war-will-change-the-world
17. "Retirement is a Scam: In the end, long-term readers of this side of the internet know that retirement is a dream sold to the masses. No one successful enjoys doing nothing all day (billionaires continue to work/do something well past retirement age). Instead, we should focus on a point at which *you* don’t have to work on anything you dislike! You’re still going to work doing something.
The point is that you should have an *exit number* to remove all the excuses for doing a job/career/business you hate. To be clear. Until you make it, you absolutely need to do things you hate/loathe as you haven’t made it yet."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/lifestyle-inflation-and-retirement
18. I'm actually pro-Bitcoin but this is interesting.
"Gary Gensler can be accused of many things, but being ignorant of how crypto markets work is not one of them. After all, he used to teach a class at MIT’s Sloan School of Management titled Blockchain and Money. Gensler knows what really drives the “price” of Bitcoin, and what is driving the need for a constant supply of new fiat. It is all right there in the filings for everyone to see.
We suspect most Bitcoin enthusiasts simply do not want to look."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-spot-of-bother-for-bitcoin
19. This is why we need to arm Ukraine to the teeth and sanction the crap out of Putin and his cronies. #StandwithUkraine
"Indifference to human life has been a hallmark of Russian strategy throughout this war. Thousands of civilians have already died because of being struck by missiles, shells, and bombs. There has been no shortage of reports of the appalling treatment being meted out by Russian troops. The ‘Bucha effect’ may confirm the phenomenon that after a certain point the casualties of war become statistics, the numbers so large that it is impossible to comprehend their human meaning.
What makes the difference are images that are visceral and intimate, so that we can imagine not only the terror of the victims but also the barbarity of the perpetrators. It is one thing to fire into residential areas from a distance and quite another to go into those areas, look helpless people in the eye, and then kill them in cold blood.
The effect has also been to bring a moral clarity to all strategic calculations. Having now seen what happens when Russia occupies Ukrainian territory, Western governments know that they cannot push President Zelensky to make any territorial concessions simply to bring the war to an end. Of course, the West is in no position to bring regime change to Moscow. Nor can Ukraine. Only the Russians can do that.
So all that can be done is to support Ukraine until Russian troops have left, leaving Putin to face the consequences of his catastrophic folly."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukraine-war-phase-two
20. Super insightful view on why the Russian army sucks & seems only capable of looting and killing civilians from long range bombardment.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511528319656755205
21. This is always a fun and educational show. "Not Investing Advice"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TriHbXqJpiA
22. I truly hope someone takes out Putin & soon.
"In fact, his policy goal, now, is never going to happen. He thought the war would be over within two or three days. We’re now into a second month and it may go on much longer than this. I hope not, but it’s possible. And in his mind, he is pursuing a legitimate historical goal.
And can he lose? No. Can he persuade himself, ever, that he has lost? No. The only people who can persuade him will never persuade him, they will have to get rid of him in one way or another. And those are the people closest to him. They are the ones who know his mind, know his methods because they are the same people.
And if they get rid of him, there may be somebody very much like him who would come into power, or if we are lucky … if we are lucky, we may get to see the other promise of Russia … of literature, of music, of history, of growth, of creativity — Russia and the Russian people, it’s a great society.
And if there were another way of leaving the KGB mentality and reaching into the other Russia, we would all be so much better off led by the Russian people themselves. Is it possible? Yes. It’s there. It has to emerge from the soot and the gutter that it exists in today."
https://www.vox.com/2022/4/6/23013514/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-history-marvin-kalb
23. I don't understand why anyone would support Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
These are the atrocities they commit, and more will come out soon based on the territories these monsters control now.
And this is why the West must back Ukraine until the barbaric Russian army is destroyed or pushed out of Ukraine.
https://www.vox.com/2022/4/3/23009048/russian-troops-retreat-in-ukraine-civilian-deaths-discovered
24. 3 weeks old here so his views on Russian success in Ukraine are dated and wrong so far. But the long term predictions on global geopolitics seem to be good.
Worth a listen to get yourself out of your media bubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu19_rlwHgY
25. A great charitable initiative to help Ukrainian refugees led by some founders I know. Please help support them.
https://www.ukrainianhelphub.com/donate
26. Awesome way to support Ukraine by buying from their awesome companies. #StandWithUkraine
27. "Net-net here, I can see a route to a potential peace deal, but it still requires Russia to win the Battle for Donbas, which is not a given. This war could still drag on for a very long time – and what is notable is that peace talks seem to be going nowhere. The West is just set on ensuring Putin loses which means continuing to arm/finance Ukraine."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putins-next-move
28. My bet is on Ukraine. Morale and experience matters. #armukrainenow
"Both sides have pretty good reasons to believe that they could emerge triumphant.
It’s possible Russia successfully pulls Ukraine into a series of pitched battles in which their aircraft and artillery advantages prove decisive, allowing them to encircle the Joint Forces and seize the entire Donbas. It’s possible that the Ukrainians successfully blunt the Russian attack and mount a counteroffensive, leveraging their manpower reserves and more motivated fighting force to retake parts of the region Russia currently controls. It’s possible they end up in a bloody stalemate, a long war of attrition where the two armies wear each other out over the course of months or years.
Right now, as the fighting is just ramping up, it’s impossible to say which of these scenarios, if any, is the most likely outcome. Too much depends on unpredictable battlefield developments.
But at the same time, it’s not clear how much the outcome of the battle will actually end up mattering. In my conversations with experts, each and every one of them said that, in the big picture, Russia has suffered an irreversible defeat in this war.
“The Russian special military operation in Ukraine is already a strategic failure,” Oliker says. “What they wanted out of this was a compliant Ukraine run by people friendly to Russia. This does not seem like a plausible outcome — and, aside from that, their forces have proven to be much less capable than almost everyone thought.”"
29. This is a good video for my simple brain. I like the white board explanation here. Bretton Woods 3 has begun.
Tactical Darwinism: Survival is Victory
I learned a new term & concept called: Tactical Darwinism. This is how at the beginning of a war or crisis; all the idiots, badly trained, careless or ignorant people are killed off. The survivors all tend to be tougher and more capable because they have learned the hard lessons through the painful experience of seeing others taken down. These hard lessons are literally earned and learned in blood.
I thought about how relevant this is in all aspects of life and work or when you are thrown into a new situation or place. Using a work example: this is no different than the incoming class of the masses of summer interns at Goldman Sachs or McKinsey, only a few of them are good enough to get actual offers to go back and work there full time. Ie. Become the chosen ones.
Tips for surviving tactical Darwinism.
Be aware: channel your excitement and fear into deep environmental awareness & focus
Learn who all the key players are
Identify the most capable person
Copy that person: watch & follow what the grizzled war vet or best sales person does
Even better get a top mentor
This allows you to learn the rules of the game.
When I wanted to learn Venture Capital, I went to learn from the best inside and outside the firm. And absorbed everything I could from them live and from a massive number of videos, podcasts and blogs and books. The rules and basics of the game.
And over time, you start to do experiments and develop new innovations on top of this. You learn what works and what does not. The longer you do this, the better you get. This is why I am not a fan of people who jump from job to job or company to company every year. They don’t stay long enough to develop the skills or see the results of their work. Good things take time.
This has served me well in my career & think it will for you.
Of course, for this to happen you do have to survive first. You do this by getting as good as possible as fast as possible. That’s where the hard work, grind and discipline comes in. Put these together and over enough time, you will inevitably do well in life. Just like you can compound interest, you can also compound skills which may be just as important. In fact, compounding skills may be even more important in the long run.
The First Step & Goal for EVERYONE Who Wants True Freedom: Have a Financial Cushion of 12 Months Cash in the Bank
I was listening to the always excellent and entertaining “Not Investment Advice” podcast with special guest Ric Burton. Lots of great crypto stories there. But the biggest thing that caught my ear was this great discussion on finance. He got 10,000 ETH back when it was pennies in 2014. Despite the life changing money, he admitted it made him crazy and he did misspend a lot of it. But it was a game changer for him as it gave him a taste of exponential wealth.
“Everyone focuses on getting rich. How about just getting 12 months in the bank. So many people don’t have 12 months cash in the bank. So what do you know, when you have a crazy downmarket, or an abusive partner, or you have someone fire you? Having that cash that just sat there? The level of confidence? F— YOU. Just chill on the couch for 9 months, I could just be scratching my knees and I’d be absolutely fine. That’s why I always have cash on hand. You learn the lesson of how insane you go when you don’t have it. It Drives you Mad.”
Wow, I had to stop and process this. This is exactly what REKT me in 2020. Not having that extra cushion of liquidity, when my tenants stopped paying me & when some clients/partners could not pay the accounts receivables. This literally drove me mad.
Despite a fairly successful career, whatever you think your net worth is, if this net worth is NOT liquid, it’s NOT true net worth as many formerly successful people learned the hard way.
Having 12 months of liquid cash, not investments, but liquid cash, is critical. You have to be honest with yourself. Can you access this right away? Ie. Can you get that cash NOW.
Make sure you manage your runway very carefully.
Quoting Ric Burton again: “What’s Your runway. And you have to be honest with yourself. By runway, I don’t mean what assets you can sell. I mean how much you got in physical cash in a safe and debit card cash that could pay your expenses. Under twelve months I don’t think you can think as clearly as people who do have that.”
In my view, the biggest priority for everyone, especially if you are a salaried worker, PUT as much money aside. Whatever it takes, even if you have to scrimp and scrape and sacrifice for a short bit. (or even a year or two). Don’t spend stupidly if you can. I feel like throwing up everytime i think about ALL the stupid things i’ve wasted my money on. LITERALLY wasteful. But this is how you learn I guess, you learn the hard way. (And for any WOKE a–hole calling me privileged, I came to the USA 22 years ago with almost no money, literally slept on a friends couch for first few months and had less than 1.3k CANADIAN dollars aka pesos in my bank, with no credit in the 2nd most expensive city in America).
Coupling a 12 months runway of cash in the bank with a low cash burn lifestyle and as many diversified revenue streams as possible IS the only sustainable path to financial freedom. Financial freedom leads to true freedom. It’s taken me a LONG time and lots of pain to get here. But I do not do any work I don’t want to. I pick and choose who I partner with. I don’t do business with anyone I don’t respect or trust. I work wherever and whenever I want. I can say whatever I think without fear of being cancelled in the stupid & spoiled and spoiling West. I’m never going to be put in a position again where I have to tolerate stupidity, incompetence, dishonesty or Bull Sh-t.
I hope everyone gets to experience all of this themselves. But you have to earn it with personal responsibility, discipline and hard work (and a little bit of luck).
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 17th, 2022
“You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.”― Marcus Aurelius
I fully agree, we need to bring in more immigrants to America.
"As Japan and many other countries have discovered, a rapidly aging, declining population saps much of the dynamism from an economy, reducing productivity and increasing the number of retirees that each working person has to support. And population shrinkage creates half-abandoned, hollowed-out towns full of despair. To reduce that burden and minimize that despair, we need to keep population growth going at a steady, moderate pace if we can. Refugees, with their proven track record of hard work, are a great way to help do that.
We don’t just owe it to the world to take in refugees — we owe it to ourselves."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/give-us-all-the-refugees-dammit
2. "Honchar describes these technological battles, and Aerorozvidka’s way of fighting, as the future of warfare, in which swarms of small teams networked together by mutual trust and advanced communications can overwhelm a bigger and more heavily armed adversary."
3. Massive implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy prices and food shortages across the globe.
https://time.com/6160948/global-fallout-russias-invasion-ukraine
4. “However, part of this is not just catching up with demand. Part of it is rebalancing manufacturing. I raised this point five years ago; I said, ‘Think about the fact that we have over 50 percent of our semiconductor manufacturing capacity in regions that are threatened by communist regimes.’ That’s a scary thought, and it’s even scarier today than it was five years ago.
Part of this is also rebalancing because geopolitics has gone nuts in the last couple years, and we don’t know what’s going to happen. Even if we overshoot demand, it’s still going to be important that we have more manufacturing capacity in other regions, especially Europe and North America.”
https://www.eetimes.com/asml-warns-chip-shortages-to-continue-over-next-two-years
5. This is pretty scary stuff. Food prices going way up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URwmGeVuztU
6. "History is not a perfect guide for the future, but the bull run of 2020-2021 is indicative of what can happen when the demand shock overwhelms the available amount of bitcoin. If you’re not paying attention to market dynamics, now would be a good time to start watching closely."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/there-is-not-enough-bitcoin-available
7. "The writing is on the wall. Prices have gone up due to massive money printing. Your income is being drained on a relative basis as asset inflation only helps people who are already rich. You can’t afford *not* to take risk.
This flies against conventional wisdom of “just save 10% of take home pay and buy homes/stocks” since that’s not going to be all that easy with high inflation and automation. Better to pivot now and put the pain up front."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/understanding-relative-wealth-and
8. "At the end of each of the three big wars that the US waged in the past 100 years and which it all won, its power peaked, but never so much as at the end of the First War.
That this power was in the subsequent twenty years dissipated and wasted because of many domestic and foreign policy mistakes is a part of the book with which I cannot deal here but is also a part that today’s US policy-makers (if any of them have the intellectual stamina to read Tooze’s book) may well be advised to reflect on."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-war-for-democracy-and-peace
9. "Putin’s invasion has united the Ukrainian nation as never before. Opinion poll showed 90% plus opposition to the invasion. And it is simply incomprehensible here why the Russian military would bombard Eastern and Southern arrears of Ukraine, mostly Russian speaking, and historically more favourably inclined towards Moscow as reflected in their voting intensions overture past 30 years. Never again.
His intervention has served exactly the opposite of his over-riding purpose which was to bring the Russian and Ukrainian people “back” together, and stopping the constant move West since 1991 and the collapse of the USSR. He has now inevitably accelerated that process. Ukraine will likely become more Western, and will be helped in this process by likely huge Western financial inflows. He has increased the chances of Ukraine’s successful economic and political development and being thereby a model for Russia and Russians - again, exactly the opposite of what he intended.
f) Ukraine might not be a NATO member, but it will continue to re-arm, and now at an accelerated pace. It will increase its ability to resist Russian attacks. And if Russia failed in this invasion it is even less likely to be successful in that regard in the future."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/is-putin-on-the-brink-of-a-catastrophic
10. "So, if you are an overseas buyer of oil, a tremendous arb opportunity has opened itself up here. If Russia prices its oil at 1bbl=1g gold, a foreign buyer could buy physical gold today at $1915 and send it to Russia for a bbl of oil at $61.57/bbl cost. They could think re-sell this barrel of oil immediately at $103, locking in a $40/bbl arb profit (before shipping, fees, taxes, etc).
What do you suppose would happen as this arb is realize by more and more potential buyers? It is very likely that there will be a run on physical gold in order to continue to buy the discounted barrels of Russia oil either to use internally or to resell for a profit. As the gold price continues to rise, this will further harden the RUB value in FX markets, allowing Russia to use its stronger currency to buy goods that it needs for its domestic economy."
https://3circleinvestments.substack.com/p/quick-oil-to-gold-ratio-math
11. I am so seeing this movie in May!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giXco2jaZ_4
12. "On their side, Ukrainians have thus far shown an unbroken spirit of resistance, even in the face of a total catastrophe that has displaced a quarter of the country’s population. Moreover, it is not clear where Russia will find reinforcements. The troops already deployed have been living under field conditions for two to three months, and have long since realized that this war is no walk in the park.
Polish military expert Konrad Muzyka notes that the Russians’ troop strength is far too low. According to one widely used military rule of thumb, invaders should have at least three times the military strength of defenders. However, the attackers have compensated for this weakness by escalating the brutality of their tactics in a way that specifically targets the civilian population."
https://www.nzz.ch/english/the-ukraine-wars-first-month-insights-surprises-and-questions-ld.1676210
13. "Now is the time to architect the peace. Take the war in Ukraine. It looks unlikely to go on for much longer given that Russia’s economy cannot support itself let alone this highly disorganized military effort. Even if Russia “wins” in a certain territory, they’ll face an insurgency from hell. Ukrainians have already shown that farm tractors and toy drones can beat tanks and convoys."
"The world should think about the time it will take to rebuild both Ukraine and Russia using traditional banking and finance versus using new technologies. A modern Digital Marshall Plan could work much faster, more cheaply, and with greater effectiveness than the old version, which still remains a masterpiece of policymaking. It would not have to be launched by the United States though."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/architecting-the-peace-a-digital
14. "So what does the battlefield of the future look like? Perhaps less of a static front, and more like a game of cat-and-mouse, with slow-moving infantry and stealthy drones hunting each other down across a battlefield the size of the whole country. Already, maps of the Ukraine war are starting to look a little bit like this"
"So what lessons can we draw from the weirdness of modern IT-powered warfare, besides simply to marvel at the way technology continues to reshape the nature of human conflict? I think if there’s one lesson here, it’s that we need to be prepared for the surprises that modern warfare will bring.
Instead of continuing to pour money into legacy combat systems treasured by vested interests, our defense department needs to focus on the technologies that are most likely not to prove to be expensive obsolete liabilities in the event of a real war. The Marines, who gave up their tanks, might be showing the way here."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/war-got-weird
15. "So long as Putin stays in power the alienation of Ukraine from Russia is complete and it will integrate more with the West. So long as Ukrainian territory is occupied severe sanctions will stay in place and the Ukrainians will keep up the pressure on any new cease-fire line that leaves their territory under Russian control. Their army is no longer one that Russia dare underestimate. The problems of governing and controlling this territory will be immense. They have destroyed those they were going to save. Their prize from the war will be shattered and depopulated town and cities, with those still in residence sullen and hostile, ready to resist and support insurgencies.
This is why taking Donbas is not a satisfactory consolation prize for Putin, let alone for those hardliners demanding that he stick to his maximalist objectives. It is simply a recipe for continued instability, turning Putin’s folly of 2014 into an even greater catastrophe, serving as a continuing drain on Russia’s dwindling economic and military resources.
In all the searches for a peace settlement it is hard to avoid the conclusion that there are no good outcomes for Russia from this war. It has inflicted massive human, political, and economic costs on itself, as well as on Ukraine. Nothing that Moscow can now achieve can outweigh those costs. If he is unable to muster a final offensive to achieve his original aims there is no formula that will enable Putin to pretend that this has all been worthwhile and he has achieved exactly what was intended. As Igor Girkin has observed, he will have lost as completely as he once hoped to win."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-problem-with-the-donbas
16. "Beyond the potentially long-lasting loss of its traditional export customers, Russia’s oil industry has also been severed from much of the global capital market and lost access to many of the key sources of oilfield expertise, from ties cut with former joint-ventures (Shell, Exxon, etc.) and equity stakes (BP) to the withdrawal of major oilfield services companies. It’s going to be immensely difficult, if not impossible, for Russian petroleum engineers to prevent a collapse in crude production, let alone grow output anytime soon.
All of the above considerations are specifically about Russian oil supply—this is without even beginning to factor for everything else going on in the 2022 oil market. The prospect of demand destruction stemming from China’s increasingly severe COVID lockdowns, the US shale patch’s short-circuiting economic response function, OPEC+ coming to the end of its COVID-era deal, the potential easing of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and Russia’s months-long throttling back of Kazakh oil exports on the CPC pipeline to repair “storm damage”: these will all have considerable, and still-yet-unknown, impacts to global oil balances, too."
https://commoditycontext.substack.com/p/oils-russia-sized-hole-pt1
17. "The entertainment value of Masa Son’s antics aside, we flag these events because of their potentially systemic nature, and as a warning for what the consequences might be if he is ever forced to play this game in reverse.
As anyone with experience in the VC sector can attest, Masa Son threw around so much money to so many startups at such eye-watering valuations that most other VC firms were forced to follow suit, creating a self-reinforcing pattern of ever-higher valuation comparisons as the basis for the pricing of the next hot deal. We suspect the bubble in the private sector is even bigger than the one transpiring in the public markets."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/crouching-tiger-hidden-problems
18. Super impressive hustle here. This is a good dude.
"He often uses the analogy of a jet plane to explain the work he put in on Twitter. When a jet plane takes off, it uses 70% of its fuel to get off the ground. Once it’s off the ground and going, it’s just coasting.
“Eleven hundred meetings, that was that 70%,” Conwell said. “All that initial energy to get up off the ground.”
https://technical.ly/startups/rarebreed-ventures-mac-conwell-twitter
19. "Overall, China is much more comfortable talking about physical and economic reconstruction, as it did when it offered to build roads for the Taliban regime last year. But cash alone is not going to settle the Ukraine situation. As its relative distance from the current talks in Istanbul have shown, China is not yet ready to step up as a prominent mediator with a democratic state, just as Western actors have sometimes struggled in the past to deal with hybrid or semi-authoritarian states."
https://unherd.com/2022/04/will-china-rebuild-ukraine
20. Good synopsis on the new, critical & probably more brutal phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
21. Yikes.....Still early days so you can't write these guys off yet but lesson is hype is good but you gotta deliver on it in the long run. (Actually they are toast now as of posting)
"The San Francisco–based Fast, which launched its one-click service in 2020, tried to win by signing up small merchants. Its main startup rival, Bolt, launched its service in 2018 with a different strategy: landing large customers including Lucky Jeans and Nautica. The startups’ financial results have diverged: Last year, Fast generated around $600,000 in revenue, three people with knowledge of the numbers said, while The Information previously reported that Bolt generated roughly 50 times that figure.
And when Fast late last year tried to raise a $100 million Series C financing at a valuation north of $1 billion, it didn’t find any takers at the time, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-stripes-fast-horse-is-losing-the-one-click-checkout-race
22. Another great episode here. Well worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZOeRDO1Z8s
23. Incredibly good analysis on the Russian army invading Ukraine. Debunks the myth that Russia is holding back their best units: net net Russia is losing & losing badly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0
24. "One thing this attack has done is strengthen the identity and pride of the Ukrainian people – at home and the diaspora abroad. Myself included.
The beauty of the land and cities, the richness of the culture, the amazing food, the artistic pursuits, the technical and engineering caliber of the people … it cannot be broken.
Ukraine is a land with a tumultuous past of being ruled by others, with identity being suffocated. But it continued quietly – through art, through whispers, and the privacy of peoples homes."
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/slava-ukrayini
25. An excellent sales guide I wish I had when I first started.
“You start selling when the prospect meets ALL these criteria:
There is a clear Emotional Pain and you (and the prospect) know
HOW MUCH it is costing them. We call this Quantifiable Pain and there can be many of them happening simultaneously in the business.
They WANT to and are MOTIVATED to resolve their Pain. No point in selling to someone who doesn’t WANT to fix their problems!
They can AFFORD to resolve their Pain. We’re not running a soup kitchen here. They must have money or we leave. Simple!
If the prospect is missing any one of these key criteria then they are not qualified."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-chronicles-of-a-chad-salesman
Celebrate When It’s Over: Complacency Kills and Paranoia Wins
I’m long term optimistic about Ukraine winning against Russia in the long run. But what worries me is the over optimism while the war continues.
On Day 50 of the heinous Russian invasion, in an interview with The Atlantic Magazine, President Zelensky of Ukraine was reported to have said:
“The optimism that many Americans and Europeans—and even some Ukrainians—are currently expressing is unjustified. If the Russians are not expelled from Ukraine’s eastern provinces, Zelensky said, “they can return to the center of Ukraine and even to Kyiv. It is possible. Now is not yet the time of victory.” Ukraine can win—and by “win,” he means continue to exist as a sovereign, if permanently besieged, state—only if its allies in Washington and across Europe move with alacrity to sufficiently arm the country. “We have a very small window of opportunity,” he said.”
He is absolutely correct. Momentum shifts oh so very quickly in war, in games and in life.
Business & Sports seem very trite when it is compared to a war situation of life and death & freedom versus oppression. But the lessons still hold.
You celebrate the deal when the contract has been signed. You celebrate the fund raise not when the term sheet is signed but when the money hits your bank account. Keep following up and keep the pressure on. Do not let up.
How many times have you seen some sports team far ahead in the lead. Then they get over confident, cocky and start to slack off. The opposing team comes from behind to win the game.
A little paranoia goes a long way. I am all for optimism but I’ve seen that too many times optimism turns to complacency, or maybe worse, overconfidence, which then quickly turns into loss. You end up seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Don’t do that!
Keep pushing on your momentum. Treat it like the small window of opportunity that it is. Velocity is universal in all the best people and companies I’ve known. Keep grinding and don’t let up until it is done.
You’ve done the hard work of rolling the boulder up most of the hill already, might as well take it all the way to the top.
Facing Your Fears: The True Underlying Reasons for Your Bad Decisions and Bad Behavior
Looking back at moments in your life there are always moments you regret. And if you are truly honest, it’s usually your fault. The wrong thing said, a reaction or overreaction that makes the situation worse. It always worked out in the end but these moments certainly were self inflicted problems.
If you look deep, it’s always driven by fear. There are many different kinds of fear: fear of the unknown, fear of change, fear of not being accepted (socially that is), fear of poverty, fear of not being loved, so many kinds of fear. I personally cannot believe that it’s taken me to my late 40s to figure this out. In fact, most people never figure it out. Ever. If you cannot find out what the big fears are in your life, you can’t fix it. These fears become your limits in life.
When I was younger it was a fear of not being accepted. But as I’ve grown older, traveled and lived in many different places, this has lessened. And it helps that I live in a place full of ambitious nerds and self proclaimed contrarians, I don’t feel like this is an issue anymore. I found my tribe.
But I still have two major themes of fears throughout my life:
1) the fear of poverty ie. lack of money, which would threaten my independence +not being able to take care of myself and my family
2) the fear of not being taken seriously or not being respected.
Almost all my issues and challenges have come from this. They are both the biggest drivers of my motivation and behavior. On the reverse side, they are the root cause of my bad reactions to setbacks.
I remember when I faced my economic challenges in 2020, or even any big frustrations at work or my business, the rage I would feel would be all consuming. The “lack of money” fear in my brain.
Or one time back in 2019, I was with my family after taking a friend out for lunch, as we were driving her home, we stopped across a crosswalk and this old white couple basically yelled some racial slurs at us. I literally saw red to the point, I almost stepped out of the car to confront them if my family had not calmed me down. All stemming from the fear of being disrespected.
Fear easily turns into anger. In fact, anger is almost always the human reaction to fear. Anger feels empowering but it’s so destructive in civilized society. We are no different than animals. Dogs or other animals attack and bite you because of the fear they feel when they are surprised by you. You can never get rid of fear as it’s a wired human behavioral tool that has gotten us and our ancestors here but you have to face it. This is why it’s so critical to learn, manage and channel this.
It always goes back to the Dune quote:
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 10th, 2022
“Scars are not signs of weakness, they are signs of survival and endurance.”- Rodney A Winters
"The #1 lesson of Europe’s natural gas dependence is this: European governments have wildly overestimated the ability of solar and wind to provide the energy they need and wildly underestimated the need for fossil fuels and nuclear to provide the energy they need.
If Europe’s level of dependence on Russia for natural gas scares you, know this: America is even more dependent on China for many of the key components of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries than Europe is on Russia for natural gas.
The energy impotence and vulnerability to Russia caused by Europe’s solar-and-wind mandating, fossil-fuel-and-nuclear restricting policies should be a wake-up call to the US."
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/europes-energy-security-crisis
2. Very familiar and bullish on this region overall too. Public stocks and startup investments too for me.
"The EMEA region is sort of everything between the Americas and Asia, but our focus within that is Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa. This is very broad and very diverse geographically, but not as evenly developed in terms of capital markets. Some countries in this region don't even have a stock market yet, but you also have Poland in there, which is now ranked as a developed country."
3. "Tech: The entire point of technology is to remove the need for human effort: 1) robots = replace assembly line workers and warehouse workers;
2) software = replaces need for administrative assistants, basic accounting and even physical areas like conferences rooms due to zoom;
3) computers = replaced type writers, a large amount of mail delivery now called “snail mail” and
4) the combination of all these innovations - software, computer chips and “robots” creates self driving vehicles which replace drivers.
While these are all simple examples, over the long-term it’s practically impossible to argue that we’ll use less technology and go back to the “olden days”
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/mapping-out-the-future
4. Another reason for why understanding Russia's atrocious invasion of Ukraine is important.
"For years, this neon has also mostly come from Ukraine, where just two companies purify enough to produce devices for much of the world, usually with little issue. At least, they did until Russia invaded.
Faced with the devastating reality of war, Ukraine’s neon industry halted production.
There will be ripple effects, though. Semiconductor manufacturers rely on neon to control the specialized lasers they use to make computer chips. Right now, it’s not clear whether they have enough time to find and develop new sources of this gas before their backup supplies run out: Chip companies and industry analysts say there’s anywhere between one to six months worth of neon in reserve.
If that runs out, these companies won’t be able to make semiconductors. This means that the worldwide chip shortage — which was expected to end sometime in the next year or so — could draw out even longer, leading to higher prices, delivery delays, and shortages of critical technology.
“Whether it’s electronics, cars, computers, phones, new airplanes, anything you can think of has a semiconductor chip,”
https://www.vox.com/recode/22983468/neon-shortage-chips-semiconductors-russia-ukraine
5. This is a pretty dark take on everything on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I really hope he is wrong but it does seem like Russia is not going to stop & will leave Ukraine in total rubble.
I worry because this is the Russian way of war from the last 90 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmtwYizIfxc&t=172s
6. "We don’t really have a precedent for what’s currently happening. This weaponization of money and finance has never been so effective, and thus, so useful in periods of war. But we also need to think about what that same weaponization means for the rules that oversee society in periods beyond war.
We’re setting a dangerous precedent against the true value of private property and the rule of law during a period of time that will likely be studied in the books of history by future generations. Independently of what we think about the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves, about going after Russian oligarch’s assets, or using the power of financial services to isolate a group of Canadians from society and stop a protest in a developed economy – the most important idea to highlight is that the weaponization of money, reserves, and the monetary system has increased everyone’s discount rate of their assets and savings.
Remember, ‘temporary’ changes to the rule of law during times of crisis have rarely remained temporary. Governments have no incentive to give back power once they’ve claimed it.
Financially speaking, the increased weaponization of money forces countries, households, and corporations, to look for alternative ways to store value whilst simultaneously avoiding mediums that can be easily confiscated by adversarial countries or institutions."
https://www.thelykeion.com/the-weaponization-of-money-and-finance
7. "That said, there are three Ukraine scenarios which currently seem most likely. The first — which is both the most tragic and the most probable — is that this war continues for many months. The second possibility — put it at maybe 30 per cent — is that there is a peace settlement. The third scenario — which is perhaps 10 per cent — is that there is some sort of political upheaval in Russia, involving the overthrow of President Vladimir Putin and a new approach to Ukraine.
The long, grinding war scenario assumes that neither Russia nor Ukraine is now capable of achieving total victory and that neither is prepared to concede defeat. Putin is fighting to save his political life and the Ukrainians are fighting to save their country."
https://www.ft.com/content/63fc662c-098d-4263-b69b-34d55c9f5e0a
8. I am praying everyday for Ukrainian victory & that the war ends soon. #StandwithUkraine
"The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven.
The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance.
Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121
9. Super bullish on Agfunder of course! Batch 12! Congrats Rob & Team!
10. Totally agree with this assessment.
"The libertarian in me still needs to use “USD/Woke Capital” to live life, but most of my future is stored in startup investing, alternative financing and crypto.
We are (unfortunately) just getting started.
I am immensely grateful to be on the side of history well-positioned for economic, spiritual, and intellectual prosperity."
11. This is worth watching to understand the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Pomp does a great job interviewing Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-r7z0lM5_k
12. Yikes! Food prices are going up sadly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvltNWuDno0
13. I am hopeful that Ukraine will come out of the Russian war of aggression victorious. I am looking forward to helping the country rebuild better than before. Good economic prescriptions for the country after the war ends (pray its sooner rather than later). Slava Ukraini!
"Certainly after the shooting stops, the first order of business — and the task of several years — will be to rebuild the parts of the country torn down by Putin’s assault. Cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv are being reduced to rubble, much of the country’s infrastructure is being torn up, and about a quarter of the entire population has been displaced.
It took Japan and Germany both slightly over a decade after the end of WW2 to reach the level of income they had enjoyed before the war. Ukraine hopefully won’t be in quite such bad shape after this conflict, but this isn’t going to be the kind of thing a country bounces back from in 1 or 2 years.
Ukrainians will work very hard to rebuild their country, but they’re going to need help. And given the U.S. and Europe’s copious military assistance, it seems likely that they’ll offer rebuilding assistance as well. In fact, the EU has just started setting up a postwar reconstruction fund, and the U.S. has already spent $13 billion helping the Ukrainians.
Both the U.S. and EU leadership know that they can’t afford to have a weak, economically backward Ukraine as the first line of defense against a newly malevolent Russia, and the Ukrainians’ cause has resonated deeply with the U.S. and EU populations alike. So expect copious economic aid to flow for at least a decade.
In any case, the models of Poland and South Korea seem like they provide the best examples for Ukraine to try to copy after the war. And indeed, Ukraine should invite advisors in from both countries. In this troubled age, democracies have to look out for each other’s economic interests as well as military ones."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/ukraines-economic-future
14. A perspective from a US army vet and writer I think very highly of.
"The United States needs to step up to protect a free and functioning democracy in Ukraine. As a combat veteran, I’ll choose this war over 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq with no purpose behind it. Critics will point to Ukraine and say its democracy is flawed and corruption is rampant, but I would just reply, “Can you name a Democracy that isn’t?”
https://sofrep.com/news/americas-bite-bigger-than-bark-time-to-enter-war-in-ukraine
15. "Tamerlane is always over the horizon, waiting to strike. There will always be conquerors waiting for the chance to conquer and pillage the soft civilized nations of the world. If you think Tamerlane is ancient history, just look up Pol Pot, Joseph Kony, Hitler, etc. This is a recurrent phenomenon. The only thing that can protect people against the Tamerlanes of the world is a strong, economically prosperous, well-organized nation state.
And the only way you get a strong, economically prosperous, well-organized nation state is to have a strong, centralized government that provides lots of public goods. Roads, ports, schools, technological R&D. You need these things because everything we know about economic development says that these things are absolutely essential for a nation to have a high GDP. And a high GDP is necessary for a nation to win wars with hypothetical Tamerlanes.
This is why modern American libertarianism is so very, very flawed. The ideology professes to value liberty above all else, but it ignores the dynamic aspect."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-tamerlane-principle
16. Even if this is half right....wow.....
"A senior administration official told reporters that independent assessments indicate Russia’s last 15 years of economic gains will evaporate this year and inflation will spike to 15%.
Russia, which had the world’s 11th largest economy before the invasion, will fall out of the top 20, according to the official. At the same time, the official said, sanctions are cutting off all sources of potential growth, including blocking Russia from purchasing cutting-edge technology."
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-meet-nato-european-leaders-074514058.html
17. Good stuff here on what’s happening in Crypto.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJtTytoMfGM&t=694s
18. This is an amazing discussion on what’s happening in the tech industry public & private markets.
These guys are sharp and it’s a damn insightful conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNTXao9AZB4
19. A frontline perspective of the war in Ukraine from BBC journalists.
"The war has changed everything for Ukraine, and for Russia. The world now feels more dangerous. Whatever happens on the battlefields of Ukraine, it is clear after a month that the Russian invasion is the biggest threat to international peace and security since the end of the Cold War.
Its consequences are already being felt beyond the borders of Ukraine, in the shape of European security, the politics of the Nato alliance and the growing pressure on economies and food supplies. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned this week that disruption to Ukraine and Russia's agricultural exports could increase world hunger."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60874223
20. This is sad that this is happening. Musicians turned soldiers in Ukraine. It does not seem right.
“Being honest,” he adds, “I can’t say I miss music now. At all. I miss peace. When we’ll get it — then I’ll think about music.”
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended and ravaged the nation in innumerable ways. The country’s thriving, eclectic music scene hasn’t been immune: Musicians have fled or gone underground, venues have closed, festivals are up in the air. But the most striking transformation involves those who have been transformed overnight from creatives to soldiers.
Although it’s impossible to ascertain a precise number, everyone from metal, rock, and folk musicians to electronic DJs has put aside their day jobs and taken up arms against an invading force. “You’re leaving your home and your family,” says Boole from western Ukraine, where he is stationed. “Suddenly you discover yourself in a completely unknown place. New rules, strict discipline, new people. A bit different surrounding [than] I got used to from working as a musician.”
21. "We believe we are at the onset of a global famine of historic proportions. In a staggering defiance of logic, many US politicians are still attacking the lifeblood of our own energy production infrastructure, looking to score political points against “the other team,” blaming price-taking producers of global commodities for gouging, threatening producers of energy with windfall profits taxes, resisting calls to remove bureaucratic hurdles to new production, and refusing to open an introductory physics textbook to help guide them through the suite of policy choices that require true leadership to get right. They remain stuck in an endless loop of platitudes, blamestorming, corruption, and ignorance.
As Eisenhower aptly identifies in our opening quote, distance has an anesthetizing effect on the observer of any occurrence. One wonders how many people will starve before our politicians get serious. The populations most at risk of falling off the edge are half a world away and we worry that that number is uncomfortably high."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink
22. I hope this leads to the end of the war soon.
"An assessment from the Institute for the Study of War found that Ukrainian forces had forced Russian troops into defensive positions, while Putin's forces had "continued to settle in for a protracted and stalemated conflict."
Ryan said the Russian army "has a huge personnel problem."
"There is no significant military unit left in Russia outside of Ukraine. They are all in the fight," he said.
"There is almost no part of the Russian military that's not dedicated, committed to Ukraine, so if he has to escalate, how does he escalate?" he added, referring to Putin.
At this point, Ryan said it would be "impossible" for Russia to take control of all Ukraine like Putin hoped to.
"He does not have the military forces to take all of Ukraine and occupy it," Ryan said, adding: "Russian leadership overestimated what their military was capable of."
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-soon-no-choice-stop-150314332.html
23. This is the hard lesson: don't get high on your own supply. Relevant whether you are a dictator, CEO or leader of any organization. Who and where you get your info is important. Criticism is not always a bad thing.
"The information environment that a leader builds in any context can succumb to this dynamic. But if you’re operating in a broader authoritarian context, then there are no checks on that. That’s the worst of every world. It’s the perfect storm for dictators, because they insulate themselves from criticism internally. But then they also, as a result of their strategies to maintain power among the population, also remove criticism externally."
24. This is an interesting take on the new world of war we are in. An Economic one.
Granted, author seems to be a gold bug so that’s the bias. But it's definitely an orthogonal view here. Not sure I agree with his conclusion but worth reading.
25. "Their maximalist strategy of swiftly capturing Kyiv and regime change has no chance of occurring. The second plan is to break morale through protracted sieges, the encirclement of cities and the occupation of enough Ukrainian land to force concessions. The Russian army has proven to be unable to take any major cities outside of the strategically advantageous southeast. Kharkiv and Sumy remain under Ukrainian control. Kyiv stands. Kherson, which was taken, is now contested. Western intelligence estimates 40,000 Russian casualties (15k killed). Prominent military officials in the Kremlin have been missing for weeks. Time is not on their side, and they know it.
So, make no mistake, this is most definitely an improvised plan B to accommodate for the woeful underperformance of Russia and exceptional Ukrainian defence so far. The new plan: annexation of land by any means necessary, be it empty or full.
this is most definitely Russia’s suicide via Ukraine; the question is now only of a timeframe. What we should focus on is: what is Russia’s appetite for punishment, and how much does it value the soon-to-be desolate wasteland of the Novorossiya it is trying to build? Can plan B deliver Putin a quick victory to save face? Can Putin even survive a Plan B, even if it is successful?"
https://stefankr.substack.com/p/the-second-phase
26. "Q? So where is this conflict going now?
Answer - it seems as though Putin will focus on Donbas, and encircling the 40-50,000 Ukrainians troops in the JFO. He hopes to devastate the JFO, while engaging in long range artillery and missile strikes against Ukrainian cities to sap confidence. His troops around Kyiv are digging in for the long haul but surely are vulnerable to insurgent attacks, with supply lines stretched.
Likely Putin hopes the destruction of the JFO and the attacks on cities will eventually force the Ukrainian leadership to concede defeat.
I also expect Russia to hit Western supply routes into Ukraine to try and dry up arms deliveries that are the life line of Ukrainian defenders.
But it is now clear that Russia cannot take he whole of Ukraine, or even Kyiv. A free Ukraine will endure, remain, even if Russia continues to occupy large swathes of Ukrainian territory for some time to come. The free Ukrainian territory will be a strident buffer against Russia - supported by the West. It will be exactly the anti Putin’s Russia that the Russian President fears."
Rise of the Marcher Lords: Danger from the Edges & the Importance of Environment
Everyone must have seen the amazing Dune movie in 2021. Based on one of the best science fiction books ever written (Frank Herbert if anyone is asking). The story is about noblemen in an intergalactic empire fighting for supremacy on the planet of Dune where the spice that drives all commerce on the galaxy, This was loosely based on the historic Arabic Muslim conquests and expansion in the 7th century across the globe. What struck me was the focus on the tough forbidding environment that Dune represented. A harsh & unforgiving desert environment where only the strong survive. This was represented by the Fremen who the protagonist was able to rally and turn into a fierce, empire-dominating army. Their counterparts were the Emperor’s elite military Sardaukar who lived and trained on the prison death world of Salusa Secundus, another brutal and harsh environment.
As a history major and buff, we’ve seen something similar throughout human history. Steppes Nomads, Vikings from desolate Scandinavia, the Spanish during the several hundred year Reconquista wars, the Border Reivers on the Scottish & English frontiers in the 13th to 17th century, the Arabs in the Middle East who led the great Islamic Expansion in the 7th Century, the Turks and the countless steppes nomads who attacked civilized Europe and the Middle east pretty much since the beginning of time. I’d also add the Comanches who dominated Southwest America & Northern Mexico during the 18th and 19th century. These folks were so badass that they decimated and terrified the super tough Apache indians for example.
The universal aspect to all these folks: they lived in harsh environments with very few resources, surrounded by other hostile competitors. They were forced to develop very effective hunting and scouting skills that are easily transferable to self defense and war. They either got good fast or died fast. Literally only the toughest survived and thrived. Then think about what happened when they left this hostile territory, and run into gentrified city folk in very prosperous and rich territories. No surprise they ended up dominating. It was like a hot knife through butter. This was also why you saw through history of most empires, many of the people who became Kings or Emperors of big empires rarely came from the center. They came from the edges of the empire or the frontier, they are just harder and tougher. They are what the British called Marcher lords, tough hardy men who ruled the frontiers & rose up by their ability and strength.
In the present day: I don’t think you will meet anyone tougher than Koreans, Ukrainians, Russians and Mongols in my opinion. They live in really hard environments weather wise that lead them to becoming pretty tough too. Awful winters and usually pretty damn hot summers too. This leads to some physically hardy people. Topping these folks are the Chechens who were only defeated by the Russians who co-opted some of their leaders. For my money, I don’t think there are any tougher people in the world than Afghans who have pretty much defeated all the great powers throughout History: Persians, Macedonians, Mongols, British, Russians under Soviet Union and now America. The place has become the literal graveyard of empires.
So as usual, where am I going with this besides some random observations? I think this is highly relevant to your career & business. Who and where you play and compete with matters. If you grow up in a very competitive environment, you will probably do better in life in the long run. Go up against the best, you will get good faster than someone at your own level. This is why I push my kid to train with better kung fu students and play with better “Go” players. Yes, you will get your ass kicked but if you keep on showing up, you will get better. Much better and will grow on a steeper slope.
It’s why, at least in the past prior to the pandemic, if you wanted to compete as an investor or startup founder in tech, you came to Silicon Valley. This is the same as being in Hedge Funds and Investments, the place to be is Wall Street. Or Hollywood for the Entertainment industry. This was where the best were & where you can absorb the most knowledge and skills. This is obviously changing in the post pandemic as talent diffuses in the remote work world but the point still stands.
But this is not the end point, as I wrote in “Playing Against Rubes” (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/play-against-rubes), paraphrasing Peter Thiel, competition in the long run is for losers. Competition is great to hone your skills and get good fast. But then you want to take these skills and use it to dominate in a less competitive market. This is kind of what’s happening. We see many Silicon Valley VCs like Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia, Lightspeed, General Catalyst, Tiger Global showing up in Europe in last few years and bringing all the skills, network, value add and frankly much more aggressive attitude to getting into deals (and more founder friendly one to boot) to a somewhat sleepy & fragmented ecosystem dominated by local incumbent investors unused to competition. No wonder we read many articles and blog posts decrying “The Americans are Coming” (for those who don’t get the reference, during the American Revolution, Paul Revere rode through town rallying the local militia, yelling “The British are Coming, The British are Coming!)
So go to the most competitive center of action, be prepared to grind for a period of time, develop some hard, solid skills and leverage these in another market or industry. Do this and you will develop your own “Personal Monopoly” in time.
The Death Zone and the Will to Win: Why Big Companies and Old Powers Lose
I’ve long been a follower and fan of Balaji S. Srinavasan. He is one of the most thoughtful and forward thinking people from Silicon Valley. What is also interesting is that he’s moved away from the USA to Singapore and India. As the ultimate sovereign Individual, you vote with your feet and your money.
I listen to all his interviews and writings and he is very negative on the United States and much more optimistic about China & India. This is in comparison to my other favorite geopolitical thinker Peter Zeihan who is bullish on the USA & India but negative on China. The lens that both of them look through definitely affects this: Zeihan looks at things through hard power, demographics and geography. Balaji looks at things through everything with a media and technology lens. I think they are both correct.
So where am I going with this? As much as I hate to hear, and it really pains me but Balaji will ultimately be right. Yes, the United States has a huge advantage when it comes to people, military spending, natural resources, energy and food. Additionally the USA has a geography far away from enemies & separated by 2 oceans and bordered by two massive, dependent, friendly and demographically complementary countries (Mexico and Canada for the geographically challenged).
The United States should be they hyperpower on paper but due to gross incompetence, military overreach in being bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not having faced any major threats since 1989, we as a country have become arrogant and complacent (and allowed our peer competitors like Russia & China to come to the fore). That is why internally we see the rise of “woke” culture, millennials whining about “safe spaces” & security. We’ve turned against ourselves. Basically, because we have not had any major hardships for the last 20-30 years in America, it has turned us soft.
And if you think I have issues with this upcoming generation in America, don’t ask me what I think of the same generation in Western Europe (outside of the immigrant kids of course). This is also why I spend so much more time investing and working in Eastern Europe, these kids know hardship. Remember the Soviet Union only 32 years ago and that was a VERY tough decade or two after. Consequently the work ethic is strong and complacency low.
But unlike China or Russia, who face tremendous issues in demographics, food, energy, and tough geography being surrounded in their view by perceived enemies; it puts them into a death zone. It’s like that old saying, “Nothing concentrates the mind, like your execution in the morning.”
The major constraints have forced them to husband and manage their meager hard resources better. Using a poker analogy, China and Russia are playing weak hands really well, while the USA is playing their strong hands badly. And what we will learn is that resources are not the most critical factor in winning. Its morale, unity, focus, competence and culture. Whatever you think of the Chinese Communist Party or Russian Siloviki (Men of Iron, technocrats and ex-KGB officers) leadership, these are for the most part highly competent & ruthlessly effective people. (I should note here: I viscerally hate these people personally. Whatever issues I have with the United States, which are plenty, I much prefer a world order led by the USA than by China. A CCP China exemplifies anti-privacy, anti-democratic & anti-freedom values that go against almost everything we believe and live). In their minds, they are on the death ground and believe failure literally will lead to their deaths or imprisonment.
You cannot compare them to the grossly incompetent people we have running the United States or in Western Europe right now in all sectors of the government, who have little to fear from failure or seem to fail up. We can’t build anything anywhere, our infrastructure is creaking, we can’t win wars despite all the money and lives we’ve spent. We can’t get unified or behind anything. These are not good signals for our future. We are living the G. Michael Hopf’s famous quote: “Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Using this analogy to startups and big companies, this is why I never worry about the big incumbents like the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google + Amazon) coming in to compete in any of my Startups spaces or sectors. There is a massive level of risk and reward that a startup team has over the big company. There is also a sense of urgency when you know every hour, every day and every dollar counts. You live in a world of “Extremistan”: massive downside which focuses the mind, but also massive upside if you execute in the right direction. It’s literally “No Pain, No Gain.”
This is in contrast with those working at big companies that have massive cash cow business and a lot of processes and multiple departments/committees to make decisions. They have it pretty easy. No one is going to push too hard or stick their neck out. There is no death zone and there is no upside for them. And this is why they just can’t compete. It’s not even a fair comparison, it’s like comparing US Navy SEALS against the US Coast Guard.
I’d pick a smaller, focused, motivated, properly incentivized team over a big company any day of the week. The will to fight really matters. Just take a look at our outnumbered & outgunned Ukrainian friends kicking Russian army ass. As they say, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 3rd, 2022
“Endurance is not just the ability to bear a hard thing but to turn it into glory.”- William Barclay
This does not seem like the message or tone of someone winning.
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-russia-against-pro-162351239.html
2. I hope much sooner than May (2 months from now) but I guess we will see.
"Ending the war sooner means a loss of prestige, domestic legitimacy hit, and no maximalist goals in Ukraine. Advancing means loss of economic power, draining military, loss of morale at home.
The question now for Russia is, “how much is too much? How little is too little?” They clearly cannot obtain their maximalist goals of complete regime change but will have to find an optimal way to balance domestic legitimacy, international prestige, economy, and military goals. This is a difficult position for the Kremlin.
All peace is won from the conditions on the battlefields of economy, military, and political will. And not all peace is equal. When assessing the ongoing development of the war, we should remain mindful of these facts. The Ukrainians are fighting for peace that will allow for a meaningful future with the European Union without further Russian interference.
Putin is fighting to impose certain political outcomes, but the question for him now is: when to stop? All areas of the analysis show that it will be sooner than later; I personally expect peace by May."
https://stefekrajic.substack.com/p/when-to-stop
3. This is a very good overview of PLG principles. Well worth spending your time on reviewing.
https://www.bvp.com/atlas/10-product-led-growth-principles
4. "The Putin Triple Punch reminds me of Mohamed Ali’s insight that “everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face”. The timing was both perfect and not random. The West faces record debt, record credit risk, fast-rising inflation and central banks that have no ammo left. What better time to throw a punch? What the West is still working out, though is how bad the damage is. My view is that Putin has quite deliberately set the stage for a famine.
We can already see the early signals of famine. The high oil prices caused by Western sanctions and saying no to Russian energy exports automatically raises the cost of both fertilizer and food delivery. Food prices were already screaming upwards even before that. The association of truck drivers in Italy announced a stoppage. They were very clear. This is not about wages. The problem is that they simply cannot make any money delivering food when the oil price is so high. The Italian grocery stores are already self-rationing spaghetti as a result. The Italian livestock growers have already announced that they will start culling animals in another few weeks because the cost of feedstock (wheat/grain) is so high.
Why have wheat prices skyrocketed? Russia and Ukraine are the 5th and 4th largest producers of wheat in the world."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-bleeding-victor-part-one
5. "During the unfolding of this new global financial crisis, if you are serious about what the future holds monetarily for the various global factions, reading Zoltan Pozsar’s missives is non-negotiable. He is a money markets and rates strategist for Credit Suisse and pairs an excellent understanding of the intricate plumbing of global money markets with a clear and concise writing style. I don’t know if he coined the terms “Inside Money” and “Outside Money,” but I rather like how simple yet informative these descriptions of money and collateral are.
Inside Money are monetary instruments that exist as liabilities on another player’s balance sheet. A government bond is a liability of the sovereign, but an asset in the banking system that trades like cash depending on the credit quality of the issuer.
Outside Money are instruments that are not liabilities on another player’s balance sheet. Gold and Bitcoin are perfect examples.
The current PetroDollar / EuroDollar monetary system ended last week with the confiscation of the Russian Central Bank’s fiat currency reserves by the US and EU, and the removal of certain Russian banks from the SWIFT network. In a generation hence, when hopefully this sad episode of human history concludes, historians will point to 26 February 2022 as the date on which this system ended, and a new, currently unknown-to-us system sprouted."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/energy-cancelled-e9f9e53a50cd
6. "But the Russian side will be looking to encourage bondholders to lobby the UST to lift the sanctions on the CBR to ensure payment.
I just don’t see what OFAC would do this. It’s in Russia’s interest to pay as if they don’t they will go into default and that would have costs and consequences on Russia for a very long time. Indeed, Russia could be paying for their decision not to pay for a decade to come in low ratings, higher borrowing costs, lower investment, lower growth and lower living standards. And for Putin that could ultimately mean social unrest domestically challenging his regime - he already looks to be losing this war."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russian-debt-to-pay-or-not-pay
7. "It feels like it is turning point time for this conflict, Putin has to either bow to peace talks, and even the leaked Russian version of 15-point peace plan suggested not much of a win given the costs now to Russia. Or he has to double up.
The key military pressure point now seems to be Western arms supplies to Ukraine, as even the lower tech Javelins, Manpads, Stingers etc have proven highly effective in the hands of mobile insurgent Ukrainian forces. Putin has realised this and has now issued several warnings to the West to stop arming the Ukrainians. He even reinforced this message with the missile strike last weekend on the staging base near the Polish border.
The response was given by President Biden yesterday, announcing another $800m in fresh arms supplies to Ukraine, including S300 ex Soviet SAMs, plus loads more stingers and javelins. The message surely to Putin from Biden is fcuk-you. You started this war, we are not going to rollover to you now. Your only option is to sue for peace, and on Ukrainian terms."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/decision-time-for-putin
8. This is a very balanced video from a former US Military veteran. Gives a more nuanced view on what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.
Confirms that Ukraine is winning overall & that Russia has very big problems in short and long run but not battles all going Ukraines way so we need to keep supporting them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4
9. "Foreign direct investors in Russia are expected to simply write down their stakes.
But those who have invested directly in Putin’s regime, the foreign bond holders, may, by way of Western courts, have recourse against Russian public assets.
I’m no expert in international law like Professor Gulati. I may have the wrong end of the stick. But if this is broadly speaking correct, it is surely an intolerably perverse situation.
And it poses the question: should the fact that the $117 million in interest are currently flowing to Western investors be a cause for celebration or scandal?
Would it not be appropriate for those proceeds to be allocated to a common fund to compensate the victims of Putin’s aggression?"
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-101-odious-claims-on-russias
10. This was a great NIA episode. Really worth watching to know what’s happening in business world and crypto world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVDyYnR_gFU&t=1892s
11. Good if you ask me & not a good sign for the Russian war effort. This shows some serious deficiencies in Russian military. Fcuk these Russian generals & hope more join them: reap what you sow.
12. This is so absolutely true. Blame can be placed at the terrible energy policies in Western Europe and USA.
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/our-mistakes-have-made-us-reliant
13. "Of course, this was somewhat of an illusion. Companies basically traded away resilience in favor of efficiency, while pretending that there was minimal downside, and yet this type of approach only works under a benign global environment. Outside of the Middle East and a few localized regions around the world, the 1980s through the 2010s was generally a period of limited war as far as supply chains were concerned, with significant global openness and cooperation.
Extremely efficient and highly complex supply chains, with limited redundancy or inventory, could thrive in this stars-aligned macro environment. Any company not playing that game would be less efficient in this environment, and thus would be out-competed.
In recent years, many people spoke about how inflation was dead, and how commodity scarcity was a thing of the past.
The problem with an efficient-but-not-resilient global supply chain, is that it stops working once the smallest of exceptions occur. It could be a natural disaster of some sort, such as a virus. It could be a human disaster of some sort, such as a war. Or both, in the case of the 2020s decade thus far. A highly-levered and fragile system is not designed for such shocks."
https://www.lynalden.com/march-2022-newsletter
14. Good description of the vibe shift in tech from Trump era to Biden era. Very interesting.
https://www.platformer.news/p/the-vibe-shift-in-silicon-valley
15. "The global money washing industry is thriving throughout the U.S. and Europe, and kleptocash has seeped into every corner of our economies. This has profound consequences, for us and for the exploited citizens of the kleptocracies themselves. When Russia began privatizing in the 1990s, it was clear that crime and corruption were rampant.
But Western leaders reasoned that once the oligarchs gained their wealth, they’d develop an interest in stability and the rule of law to protect it, and to support the development of an economy and society where they could enjoy their ill-gotten gains. It’s an age-old phenomenon: Bandits become bandit kings and eventually see the virtues in shedding the banditry — or at least corralling it with law and law enforcement.
But as Russia scholar Karen Dawisha wrote in Putin’s Kleptocracy, that view “failed to foresee the extent to which globalization would allow Russian elites to continue to maximize their gains by keeping domestic markets open for their predation while minimizing their own personal risk by depositing profits in secure offshore accounts” — and enjoying the fruits of the Western economy by buying yachts, enjoying five-star meals, and hanging with celebrities. As she later put it, “the rule of law for Russia is in London.”
The oligarchs may be the ones stealing from the Russian people, but we are the pawn shop that fences their stolen goods."
https://www.profgalloway.com/wash
16. The future of war: Drones. First in Azeri-Armenian war, now by Ukraine trouncing Russian troops (war initiated by Russia btw).
https://futurism.com/the-byte/ukrainian-drone-pilots-russia
17. I love these discussions. The best show online these days discussing the global economy, politics, tech and business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_U3pVW4u_vw
18. What a strange move ie AMC theaters buying into a gold mining company. Aron of AMC is a very sophisticated Corporate America type and knows the game (in all the good and bad ways). Caveat emptor.
"It has been an interesting two years for Aron and many believe he’s on a hero’s journey of sorts – called to new adventure, bringing AMC through its meme-fueled rebirth and looking for others to save. Happily for Hycroft, and especially happy for the sanctity of Sprott’s debt, this particular hero is attracted to shiny things. Even better, he is followed by an army of primate hodlers willing to follow him off a cliff."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-fool-and-his-gold
19. "So, which is it? The victor is mortally wounded (see Gromen) or the victor wins the spoils. Which is it? Can it be both? We will see America default on its citizens and lenders through inflation. Yes, we will pay the lenders back the $100 we borrowed but it is going to be worth a lot less. Will America default on its own citizens by breaking the promises and failing to deliver government payments? Yes. Will Americans simply have to work longer? Yes. Will that fix the problem? Actually, yes, it will but at what cost to public trust? A huge loss of trust and faith in government is bound to ensue, and that’s starting from the already depressed levels of trust."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-wounded-victor-part-two
20. This is a big deal. Has a huge impact on Russia & of course, China now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xsCSP8Ic6w
21. "Because we’re Gonna Make It, we’re going to follow some straightforward rules: Only seek out training from people with Industry Recognized Certification, or who have relevant experience to the point where they train Professionals.
First thing you need to do is to judge your current skill level. If you don’t even have basic competency with a gun, there’s really no reason to try to take a tactical shooting class."
https://bowtiedcaiman.substack.com/p/tactical-training-and-why-choosing
22. "Thus, the internet changes Cancel Culture by massively increasing the number of people who can target you for ostracism. It’s a bit like living in a gossipy small town where you don’t know any of your neighbors — you don’t know who’s going to read what you write, so you don’t know how people are going to take what you say."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/its-not-cancel-culture-its-cancel-ade
23. "Buterin hopes Ethereum will become the launchpad for all sorts of sociopolitical experimentation: fairer voting systems, urban planning, universal basic income, public-works projects. Above all, he wants the platform to be a counterweight to authoritarian governments and to upend Silicon Valley’s stranglehold over our digital lives. But he acknowledges that his vision for the transformative power of Ethereum is at risk of being overtaken by greed.
And so he has reluctantly begun to take on a bigger public role in shaping its future. “If we don’t exercise our voice, the only things that get built are the things that are immediately profitable,” he says, reedy voice rising and falling as he fidgets his hands and sticks his toes between the cushions of a lumpy gray couch. “And those are often far from what’s actually the best for the world.”
The irony is that despite all of Buterin’s cachet, he may not have the ability to prevent Ethereum from veering off course. That’s because he designed it as a decentralized platform, responsive not only to his own vision but also to the will of its builders, investors, and ever sprawling community. Buterin is not the formal leader of Ethereum. And he fundamentally rejects the idea that anyone should hold unilateral power over its future."
https://time.com/6158182/vitalik-buterin-ethereum-profile
24. This is the future of war. And the reality is whoever has the moral legitimacy on their side will probably get more of the collective of cyberhackers on their side. In this case, clearly Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60784526
25. Ill advised but that has never stopped megalomaniacs from pursuing their agenda of supremacy. If China rises it’s because the US & West completely screwed things up.
"So China stands at an epic crossroads. It faces a choice that will determine its fate for the rest of the century — the choice of whether to return to the path of stability that Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao set it on, or whether to gamble it all to try and succeed where the revisionist illiberal powers of the 20th century failed. The stock market is only the latest messenger issuing a warning that the latter course would be extremely ill-advised."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-has-a-fateful-choice-to-make
The Alpinist: Amazing Life Lessons on the Frontiers of Climbing
The documentary tracks the amazing career and life of a brilliant but relatively unknown young Canadian Solo Alpinist Marc-Andre Leclerc.
This movie description says it all.
“Marc-André Leclerc climbs alone, far from the limelight. On remote alpine faces, the free-spirited 23-year-old Canadian makes some of the boldest solo ascents in history. Yet, he draws scant attention. With no cameras, no rope, and no margin for error, Leclerc's approach is the essence of solo adventure.”
I was captivated by his climbing and just how he lived his life. He was not interested in fame but only in pushing himself, pushing the edge of solo climbing and chasing the purity of the climb. Marc-Andre climbed just for the sake of climbing. And wow, the breathtaking views. The cinematography alone is worth watching. Something about the pristine, beautiful mountain vistas.
Marc-Andre:
“When you are in the mountains with a mission. It’s like all the superficialities of life just sort of evaporate. You can find yourself in a deeper state of mind. You appreciate everything so much that you take for granted most of the time.”
There is something scary yet impressive with alpinists. Man versus nature where nature usually wins. Alpinist Rainhold Messner said: “Maybe half of the leading solo climbers of all times died in the mountains. But this is the philosophy. For going in an adventure, you need difficulties, you need danger. If death, was not a possibility, coming out would be nothing. It would be kindergarten, but not an adventure”
Yet Marc threw himself into climbing with energy and verve. As they said, “he just went for it.” This is a guy who solo-ed Mountain Robson in the Rockies, he also tried climbing the pinnacle of Torre Egger (Argentina) in a blizzard. He was unsuccessful making the summit but made it down safely. A big deal by itself. But then in a second attempt he makes the summit. An incredible feat.
So many parallels to life in climbing.
“The actual achievement doesn’t really change your life like you think it might, when you are building up to it. But what you’re left with is the journey that got you to that point, and if you have this big journey where you had to figure a lot of stuff out, you had to plan, and it was more immersive, and you were somewhere very beautiful for a long time, and then had to work really hard, and overcome some kind of mental barrier, you’re left with so much more of a story or like a memory and an experience.That’s what i find is the most important.”--Marc-Andre
“Undeniable that everytime you go to the mountains it could be your last time. So you have to appreciate. Whatever dinner you’d want to be your last dinner, you have to eat it.”--Marc-Andre
“The whole game is very simple. We go somewhere we should not go. Where our own instinct is telling us ‘do not go there.’ Many things can happen. We can fall. The storm could take me away. We know that we can die up there. But still we go there. We try to make real our dreams. Our visions.”--Reinhold Messner
Sadly, Marc-Andre died in an avalanche while scaling a mountain in Alaska. He was 25 years old. But he died doing something he loved. This is more than most people can say.
One of his friends said: “He was one of a kind. He was an individual, individual. He just burned very bright…and he left an indelible mark on a lot of people in a short time, didn’t he.”
What a tribute. Let’s hope we all can have the impact and live a small sliver of the rich life that Marc-Andre did. He lived his dreams. We should do the same.
Forced Obsolescence is a Feature, Not a Bug: Staying Relevant in the Tech Industry (or Any Industry)
I grew up in Vancouver during the 1980s & 90s where there existed a unique school system of Junior High & Senior High. You went to elementary school grade 1-7. You were top dog in grade 7, but then you were thrown into a bigger pool in Junior High. Right back at the bottom again lorded over by the grade 9s & 10s. You make it to Grade 10 and you are the king because you know everyone and understand the system. Then, suddenly, you are moved to Senior High School as a grade 11er, bottom of a larger heap again. 2 years and then University comes and you are once again the small fish in an even bigger pond.
This is an amazing system for building flexibility and crushing your overbearing ego. One minute you are on top, then you are at the bottom of the pyramid every few years. You literally cannot coast or rest on your laurels. You can never get comfortable. This setup was really helpful in preparing me for my career in Silicon Valley. As the famous Andy Grove said, “Only the Paranoid Survive” and his book is worth reading.
Why do I raise this? In an industry that moves and changes as fast as technology, it’s just really hard to keep up. And the tech business justifiably has a bad reputation of ageism & favoring young people.
As a 47 year old in Silicon Valley, you have to continually evolve and learn. This is why I spend so much time and money investing in classes, courses, workshops & books to keep up with what’s happening. This is why I’ve stayed active with the startup ecosystems, do talks & workshops and mentor founders. I also still actively invest in companies. I’d continue doing all of this even if I was a billionaire.
One of my biggest fears is becoming like an aging hipster going to the club and talking about the good old days. Or relying on something I did 5, 10 or 20 years ago. Even if I wanted to, all the places I worked at are either gone or completely irrelevant. Left behind by the crazy new level of competition that exists in the world today. Not a bad thing as you have no choice but to continually raise your game.
I genuinely think of Steve Wozniak as a pioneer and as cofounder of Apple back in the day. But part of me cringes that this will be what he is known for forever. In fact, he still gets paid a lot of money to sort of speak about this. I stress “sort of” as interviews with him are kind of lame because of all the NDAs, Apple PR and such. Reminds of those 80s musicians relying on their one old musical hit. It’s kind of sad to me & yes, I know this makes me a judgmental troll as I have never started a massive company like Apple.
Even Guy Kawasaki has finally ditched his “I was an evangelist for Apple in the 80s” schtick. At least he has joined & helped a very relevant & successful company like Canva.
This isn’t even about making a lot of money or being rich. There are plenty of Silicon Valley multimillionaires and billionaires who are no longer relevant anymore. The cycles of technology shift so quickly and your edge disappears with each new wave. It takes a while to come back. Think of the brilliant semiconductor entrepreneurs who crushed it in the 70s to early 90s but were subsumed by the software industry they enabled. I should note, Ironically, semiconductors have come back to the fore & these entrepreneurs and experts are much needed now.
This is why I am such an admirer of Alan Patrícof who continues to stay on top of things as a VC, starting APAX & then Greycroft which is still a top firm, where he has mentored a new generation of VCs in his firm. He is able to use & share his extensive experience but also gain new perspectives from his younger colleagues and prospective startup founders. Or Steve Case, founder of AOL but now bringing VC to the non-Coastal USA, enabling the “Rise of the Rest.” Or even the not so nice Larry Ellison, who has continued to play an important role driving Oracle to new heights of strength through his vision and attracting great talent.
You have to evolve or die. Yes, this is hard and unfair but life is unfair. So deal with this hard reality or drop out. In fact, Sometimes it’s just a matter of staying in the game long enough until things turn your way. Much easier to last if you really enjoy the industry like I do.
Things are only going to get more competitive and tougher in our industry as it is now a juggernaut versus the niche it was 20 years ago. And this is not just technology. This is happening in media, in advertising, in fashion, and will bleed out to many other industries as well. Everything is accelerating as technology and software infiltrates and transforms the corners of the world.
So how do you keep up?
Learn from your tween/teen kids. Go hang out with brilliant young people. Travel. Take up new hobbies. Be flexible, open minded and have a continual learning mindset. Also be a tiny bit paranoid and push yourself. Do all this and you will be fine.
As Charles Darwin wrote:“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change.”