Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 27th, 2022
“Without Courage, Wisdom Bears No Fruit”--Baltasar Gracian
"The larger East European states benefit from their attachment to broader institutions of the West, like NATO and the EU, but they do not want to sacrifice any more of their sovereignty than they have to. Indeed, in a dangerous world they see those institutions primarily as supports for their national independence. Russia’s aggression only reinforces that double impulse towards both alliance and independence. It also confirms their broader diagnosis of the threat they face from the East.
As Michal Kranz explains in this nice piece for Foreign Policy,
Poland no doubt relishes its new centrality to the Western alliance. At the same time, however, as Glapinski’s comment illustrates, they are also acutely aware of the fact that they could easily find themselves relegated to a subordinate position."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-98-eastern-europe-in-the
2. This is a really good take on why the Russia army has not been successful in Ukraine. Explains a lot.
https://www.quora.com/Is-Russia-really-failing-at-invading-Ukraine
3. "The world over, it had become fashionable to actively destroy a well-established, affordable industry (fossil fuels), and replace it with an experimental, expensive solution (so-called "renewable" energy). Anyone who pointed this out in an investment context will have received emails about their role in the coming death of humanity – I did!
All the while, our politicians are using monetary policies that try to defy the laws of nature. No matter what you call it – Modern Monetary Theory or something else – you still cannot print your way to prosperity. Anyone who claims otherwise should get their head examined.
This is a period of crazy, and the crazy train only seems to be picking up speed with each year that passes instead of slowing down. If you thought 2016 was crazy, what are you making of 2022 – and how will 2024 look like?
Yet, you are not supposed to speak or write about it. Much of the corporate media have become a tame, submissive mouthpiece of the special interest groups who are driving this nonsense. Or maybe they always were, and we simply noticed it less at the time."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/ukraine-crisis-where-do-we-go-from-here/
4. Digital dollars are coming. USA as a disruptor in the world, not the policeman of the global order as per Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei8VRaU46dM
5. "If you want to understand human nature it can be summed up as follows “how much you spend” is what a typical person views as rich while a future wealthy individual believe “how much you can spend forever” determines who is rich.
A person who makes $240,000 after taxes and spends it all is “rich” to the typical person as they can see the use of the money.
A person who makes $240,000 after taxes generated from his *assets* is rich according to an actual rich person.
They are not the same and yet you will see these two same people at the same bars, clubs, restaurants etc. Once you understand this you’ll understand why wealth and income cannot be confused. The guy making $1M a year is actually not rich if he spends all of it and the guy making $1M off of just dividends is rich (his assets are closer to $20M based a 4% payout ratio).
As a rule of thumb avoid people who say “you can’t take it with you when you die” as they are unlikely ever going to understand the difference."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-cpiinflation-can-be-understated
6. Agree here: Turkey is a critical player in region and the world.
"On Western support for Turkey at this difficult time it is clear that Turkey is set to bear the biggest impact amongst third party countries for the war. Higher energy and food prices and the loss in tourism revenues will make already critical balance of payments and inflation problems much worse and in fact unsustainable. It is indeed hard to see Turkey avoiding a balance of payments crisis now without outside help.
I would advise the West to provide financial assistance to Turkey. The US can provide loan guarantees to the Turkish Treasury and DM central banks should provide swap facilities to the CBRT."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/the-west-needs-to-provide-financial
7. This shows how broken many of the Western institutions are....sadly.
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was sure to kick off a chaotic series of unpredictable and historic moves in the global financial markets. The functional death of the iconic London Metal Exchange is but the first of what we expect will be many similarly situated institutions to get sucked under the steamroller.
RIP LME."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/nickel-in-front-of-a-steamroller
8. "The good news is that the rest of the world has ability to completely offset the impact. There is more than enough grain in storage to cover the loss of Russian and Ukrainian exports for several years, if need be. There is also substantial scope for U.S. farmers to produce more wheat if they cut back on growing corn and soy. Global coordination among the major consumers and the major grain producers (other than Russia and Ukraine) should be sufficient to ensure that everyone outside of the combat zone has plenty of food."
https://theovershoot.co/p/russias-attack-on-the-worlds-food
9. "The other implication is that while economic sanctions have not yet given the West much leverage over Putin’s war strategy they do offer it leverage over his peace strategy. While he may have convinced himself that Russia – with Belarus – has a self-sufficient autarchic option this is another self-serving fantasy.
The question of the future of sanctions and how they might be unwound is not one to be discussed separately from any peace talks. They are a vital part of the negotiations. As there can be no Western-led peace talks without Ukraine, it should be made clear to Moscow that for now this is a card for Zelensky to play. The future of the Russian economy can then be in his hands. Should a moment come to start to ease sanctions, some leverage will be required to ensure that any agreement is being honoured. There could be a link to reparations for the terrible damage caused.
“Fanaticism”, according to George Santayana, “consists of redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim.” As his original war plans failed Putin has insisted his forces follow a disruptive and cruel strategy that has put his original aims even more out of reach and Ukraine with a say over the future of the Russian economy."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist
10. "Of course, CIPS is far away from replacing SWIFT itself. While CIPS is aiming to operate independently in the future, it is still working closely with SWIFT in order to access its wider network. Specifically, the flow of funds works through CIPS domestically, while the flow of information in international transactions has been handled by either CIPS of SWIFT. Moreover, comprising only 3.2 percent of international transactions, the RMB has yet to make a strong argument for many global banks to join an RMB-based financial messaging network.
Overall, with only one-third of its global trade with its largest trading partner settling in Chinese currency, and due to the limited member networks of SPFS and CIPS, Russia is a long way from being able to conduct international trade without SWIFT. Russia may employ foreign reserves and its outstanding BSA to increase its proportion of RMB-based trade; however, this cannot happen overnight, and in the near term this will fail to meet the needs of a globally connected Russia."
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/can-chinas-swift-alternative-give-russia-a-lifeline
11. "Putin’s attack on Ukraine has shifted the international balance. It has, to say the least, not been a success for Russia so far. In a protracted struggle with the West, Russia might still end up sliding into China’s more or less reluctant embrace. But China won’t rush to take up that role and it will surely guard against getting sucked into a further escalation of US sanctions. What is clear, is that above all its future depends on facing domestic challenges both in the medium and the short-term.
If Beijing suffers a devastating Omicron outbreak in the next few months the entire narrative of the period since 2020 will have to be rewritten."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-99-china-under-pressure
12. I feel for the Belarussian people. (obviously not a fan of the leadership)
"There’s a good reason for that caution. Joining the attack against Ukraine would be hugely unpopular — a survey found that only 3 percent of Belarusians support such an idea, according to Ryhor Astapenia, who leads Belarus Initiative at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program — and it could break the military, which is one of the key pillars keeping Lukashenko in power."
https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves
13. Customer success is a crucial role for all B2B Startups. This is good basics.
"This segmentation is a rough mental model and exceptions abound, especially when companies sell across segments. A startup might use two or three of these models to serve customers of different sizes through various sales motions."
https://tomtunguz.com/customer-success-evolution
14. "There you have it. An emotional call for help to underline how inadequate the efforts for real support have been so far. At the same time the speech may be laying the groundwork for more direct and consequential action from Canada, the US, and indeed from most democracies. Russia is being boxed in step by step, but it is not going nearly fast enough for Ukrainians on the ground."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/zelenskys-urgent-message
15. Title says it all.
"The Web3 world is exciting, but it does break many of the orthodoxies we’ve come to expect in venture. Yet I truly believe it is still the case that great founders need patient investors who will back them and support them through crypto winters to come. The best of Web 2.0 VC ethos are still relevant for Web3, but it is far from a case of copy-pasting what we knew."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/web-2-0-investors-arent-cut-out-for-the-web3-world
16. Good stuff. Truth always comes out with a little help from Anonymous.
17. "My expectation is that the West won’t end up in a cold war with the Chinese and the Russians together. China will continue to sit on the fence, maintaining normal trade relations with Russia where sanctions allow it while refusing to directly come to Putin’s aid to avoid decisive breaks with the West.
But as long as Beijing refuses to distance itself from its new strategic partner and Russia becomes more and more integrated with China economically, financially, and technologically, the risk of knock-on decoupling will remain elevated. The China-West relationship is therefore likely to get worse for the foreseeable future."
https://ianbremmer.bulletin.com/russia-ukraine-china-role
18. "The point is: Until the Maidan, Ukraine existed in the same bucket of excrement in which Russia has lived since the revolution. They’ve had one strongman after another robbing the nation blind and subjugating the people.
But then a small miracle happened: The young people of Ukraine had enough. And they managed to overthrow Putin’s puppet and elect someone with eyes squarely on the West.
Now Putin can’t have this."
https://www.thebulwark.com/why-ukraine-is-dangerous-to-putin
19. The future of war? Or an important aspect of it. Volunteer hacker army.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/15/volunteer-hackers-fight-russia
20. "Wherever you live in the world, it’s possible that everything might seem fine and normal today. But one key lesson we keep learning over and over again is that everything can change in an instant. It’s possible that tomorrow will look nothing like today.
So it’s imperative to think about your Plan B well before any proverbial hits the fan.
Freedom of movement is important. You might need the ability to leave, as well as a place to go.
At a minimum, that means having a valid passport… and ideally a second residency abroad, or even a second citizenship.
Financial security is also important, and that means making sure that your money isn’t concentrated solely in your home country’s financial system."
21. So hesitant to post this but this write up at first glance seems so reasonable & pro-America. He ignores the fact that Russia actually did invade & wants to subsume a sovereign country.
And the reason Russia has not mass bombed cities and civilians earlier in war was due to logistical issues, not lack of intent.
This is the Russian way of war: just like in Chechnya & Syria.
I get his distrust for the American political & media class (I share it) but Ukraine actually is important from resource perspective, general peace in Europe (US has major economic interests there as trading partners) & also international law one too.
Sadly many people don't read & lean toward fringe ideas on both left and right side.
https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-forgotten-question-what-is-the
22. "What is at issue in the current moment is not the stability of the financial system as such, or the survival of particular trading houses, but the general sense of crisis and instability. Along with the war in Ukraine, the extreme spikes in oil and gas prices are a major manifestation of that instability. If there is a relevant lesson from Lehman in this context it is less a matter of financial technicalities than the realization that in a precariously balanced situation it can be very dangerous to let a major domino fall. And right now, the European gas market, is a very big domino indeed.
Another lesson from Lehman is that once the crisis has passed you must engage in wholehearted structural reform. The window of opportunity is narrow. And if you do not seize it, the structures that generated the risk in the first place will resume their growth and their vice grip on the political economy will become ever firmer.
If commodity businesses are part of the shadow banking ecosystem they too should be included in a major new regulatory push, drawing the lessons from 2020-2022."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-100-must-central-banks
Putting Things in Perspective: Feeding Gratitude
It has been a really rough last couple years for the world. 2020-2022=global wake up calls.
So much has happened, a global pandemic, incompetent government response & a frankly more authoritarian one. A crazy media hysteria, bad economic policy/ high inflation capped off by the awful Russian invasion of Ukraine. So many shocks to the system. Literally and figuratively.
What I came to realize was that so many things that bothered me or I spent so much time on really did not matter. What really matters? Personal health both mental & physical, family, friends, followed by personal sovereignty & financial freedom.
I take nothing for granted these days. Or try to at least.
However crap you think your life is, there are so many others who have it way worse. No matter how expensive the gas is, or how much the food costs at the grocery store, at least you can buy some. At least you have a roof over your head. You don’t have an invader bombing your home or family like in Ukraine, or you don’t have to flee with nothing but that which you can fit in your suitcase. Or even flee separately from your family because the men have to stay and fight for your country. Seriously, how lucky (and frankly spoiled) are we in America or Western Europe when in comparison to this?
According to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs as defined in Wikipedia:
“Maslow's hierarchy of needs is used to study how humans intrinsically partake in behavioral motivation. Maslow used the terms "physiological", "safety", "belonging and love", "social needs" or "esteem", and "self-actualization" to describe the pattern through which human motivations generally move. This means that in order for motivation to arise at the next stage, each stage must be satisfied within the individual themselves.”
With so many shocks to the system, you start to get a new perspective on what is really important. You practice gratitude. And you soon realize, it’s the simple things that truly make someone happy.
For me: It’s Buying and reading a book. Eating good food. Spending time with my daughter. Traveling to a new or old city. Meeting friends. Having a meeting or call with one of my many portfolio companies to talk through problems or issues. Helping & mentoring at the various startup accelerators programs across the world. Being able to help people. Nothing makes me happier or more fulfilled.
The key point of having the freedom to spend the time with who I want to, not who I need to.
But you need to change your frame of mind. To do that, channeling Tony Robbins, change your language. “I get to” versus “I need to.” You reprogram your brain just like you can do to software.
You have to take action. No matter how small. And it certainly helps to have a larger mission in life beyond yourself.
My goal to positively impact 10 Million people in the world is even clearer than before. And I add that in light of the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, I believe and know that Ukraine will eventually win. It will be sovereign & free as the people there are strong. When that happens, I will be there to invest and help them rebuild the country. In fact, I am spending my time now helping & donating my money and time to supporting Ukrainian refugees & Ukraine’s defense effort. It feels really trivial but I have to believe every little bit helps.
In the meantime, please support the following charities & non-profits helping Ukraine in this dark time:
Borderlands Project (full disclosure, I am on the board of this non-profit): https://borderlands.com.ua/homepage_en
International Rescue Committee: https://www.rescue.org
World Central Kitchen: https://wck.org
Nova Ukraine: https://novaukraine.org
So net net: the cure for getting through all the tragedy and bad news in the world is having a larger mission and taking those steps toward it, however small it is.
Living on Multiple Grids: Towards Being a Sovereign Individual
Andrew Tate aka Cobra Tate, elder half of the internet famous playboy Tate brothers. Two of the most real & interesting guys I’ve run into on the internet. Children of a chess master, who grew up poor in the US & UK. Andrew Tate was groomed to become a professional chess player but ended up becoming a professional fighter and a world champion kickboxer. A true rags to riches story, he ended up becoming a multimillionaire by starting a girls webcam business and moved to Romania. He further expanded his wealth through Crypto & real estate investments, building out a OnlyFans agency and Casino empire. He & his very polished, fellow kickboxer younger brother Tristan, live the unabashed life of playboys, dating multitudes of beautiful women, traveling the world in private jets partying in exotic destinations like Monaco or Dubai, driving around in expensive luxurious sports cars (20 as last count). Basically living the dream of every 16 year boy.
Hated by feminists and the politically correct, they are unapologetic about their lifestyle and are direct (read honest) of their views on everything, politics, Covid, government, business, society. No sugar coating and definitely no self censoring, they say what they think. Whether one agrees with them, they are the most real individuals on the internet right now outside of Joe Rogan. Apparently Andrew is on his 9th Twitter handle and 3rd Youtube channel as his accounts have been closed due to complaints or breaking the somewhat mysterious and arbitrary platform policies there. They do what they want and literally do not care what other people think.
A big reason they are confident enough to do so is because they are financially independent and not reliant on others for a job or business. They are fully living the “Sovereign Individual life”. Andrew stated in an interview, “there is no living off the grid in our interconnected world, you have to live on multiple grids.”
This makes sense, as it’s hard to track someone who is in multiple jurisdictions. I recall having a local friend tell me that one reason crime was so bad in Sao Paulo Brazil was because of the multiple different police forces (Federal Police, Military Police of Sao Paulo, Civil Police) that operated there who had overlapping territories and powers. Criminals were able to slip through the many cracks because it was not clear who had jurisdiction (for the record I am not advocating you do anything criminal or suspect). I can’t verify this but it kind of makes sense. My point about this situation as an analogy to Country jurisdiction is sound.
Tate further elaborates that you need to have multiple passports & have money and investments all over. This is basically the 5 Flag Strategy to diversify and protect your life, wealth and freedom. There are 2 very good primers here:
1) https://www.offshorelivingletter.com/key-topics/flag-theory/
2) https://nomadcapitalist.com/flag-theory/
This became even more important during the Pandemic over the last 2 years. Romania had one of the hardest lock downs in Europe in 2020, but because of his various passports, Andrew could travel to places that were open like Sweden, Dubai and then Miami in the USA. Because of his various citizenships he could always find a place in the world that fit his lifestyle while others were stuck in Covid prison.
I did the same in 2020. After almost 6+ months of lockdown in San Francisco, (California spent up to a year in lockdown), I was able to leave and go to Europe & then Asia, where life was somewhat more normal and the people less insane. I did this for almost 1.5 years as I am writing this. Every time there was a lockdown, I left for a country that was more open. Ukraine, Georgia, Taiwan, Turkey, North Macedonia, Mexico, Portugal & finally Canada (they had to let me in as I am Canadian). And frankly, these are places with a much higher quality of life and cost structure compared to where I am in the USA.
After almost 2 years into the pandemic, it’s become very clear to me that Covid policy just doesn’t work outside of shutting down the economy and destroying small businesses. Just compare the covid deaths and economy of Texas (261 per 100,000)/Florida (294 per 100,000) versus California 194 per 100,000). We should bear in mind Florida has a far higher population of at risk individuals than in California. It’s pure insanity that countries in Asia and Europe continue this practice of lockdowns and quarantines. In fact, the CCP’s Zero Covid policy is causing major strife in China right now.
I, for one, will not comply with this stupidity anymore. And I don’t need to because my life and business can be run from anywhere with a smartphone, laptop & internet connection. Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite driven broadband service is only going to make good internet access easier and easier as time goes on. I can pick up and leave anytime.
Additionally, it’s also very clear the world is moving into an “open” versus “closed” country. The United States, Dubai, and Latin America are not closing down again. Some parts t of Asia will remain closed through part of 2022. Even in the US, we see open states like Florida & Texas versus the still restrictive blue states of New York & California. All this means there will be places for mobile individuals to go to.
Adding the shocking invasion of Ukraine by Putin aka Putler’s Russia, shows us also that war can seem to come out of nowhere. So mobility & some form of location and asset diversification for you and your family can be very important. In fact, as we see the tragedy unfold in front of our eyes, it could literally be a matter of life and death.
I’m still early in my Sovereign Individual journey. But numerous big trends & growing awareness of the populace are coming together:
1) the growing popularity of remote work
2) realization of the way governments across the world are mismanaging the economy (ie. massive inflation)
3) ongoing pandemic policies moving toward pretty dangerous authoritarian directions in the developed West. Looking at you Austria, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
4) the conflagrations of a land war in Europe that many worry will extend beyond Ukraine.
These awakenings will only lead to far more people embracing a Sovereign Individual life. Or at minimum, what was a Digital Nomad lifestyle, that of being location independent.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 20th, 2022
“Life Shrinks or Expands in Proportion to One’s Courage”--Anais Nin
"The coming years of Putin’s rule will thus look very much like the worst years of Yeltsin’s rule. Putin was brought out of the deep shadows with the idea that he would protect the gains of Yeltsin’s family and the oligarchs while reimposing some degree of internal stability. In his first two terms, he was successful in doing that.
But at the end (or whatever the current point it is) of has reign, he brought all the original diseases back and made them in some sense worse because his policies stuck the country in an impasse and simultaneously closed off all the venues of change."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/russias-economic-prospects-the-short
2. Net net the Russian economy long term is in deep doo doo.
"Both policies, namely import substitution and shift towards the East, will therefore meet with almost insuperable obstacles. It does not mean that they cannot be undertaken; some of them will by done, by necessity: Russian softwares will have to be produced to replace the 95% of western-origin software that is currently used in automatized Russian companies (Russian newspaper sources).
Closer economic ties with China would also imply some movement of companies and people East. A Siberian or a Pacific city can become the second capital (as Ankara did in Turkey). But a significant success in either of these two domains seems—the best that can be seen from today’s perspective—simply unreachable."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/russias-long-term-prospects
3. Jim Rogers is the man. Commodities are the place to be. Also Invest in places that are hated (most of the time).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2pWtp7MpM0
4. "There is now more downside risk than upside risk as I currently weigh the optimistic case at 33% (and declining). When it comes to your fear versus greed toggle, it is time to be more fearful. However, fortunes are made in bear markets. As Buffett has said, we should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
To position ourselves to play offense in a bear market (either as investors or as founders), we must be proactive before the bear market materializes. For both investors and founders, the takeaway is simple: raise a war chest now. For founders, this means raising enough cash to survive and indeed to press competitors during tough times. For investors, this means raising liquidity in anticipation of chances to buy attractive assets at dimes or pennies on the dollar.
Individuals should try to lock in long term fixed mortgages at today’s low rates while they still can. I would also recommend maxing out the amount of non-recourse loans you can borrow against your home at a low 30-year fixed rate. Inflation will ebb away at your debt load. I recently renegotiated my mortgage on my New York apartment for instance.
Despite high inflation, I would keep a fair amount of cash on hand. While its value is being deflated it gives you optionality to buy assets cheaply should there be a large correction. It’s the reason we pursued an aggressive secondary strategy over the last 12 months.
Founders should raise now while keeping an eye on their unit economics and burn. Private market multiples have not yet compressed to the level of public markets. Given a potential multiples compression, you might get the same valuation today as you will in 1 year despite having 1 year of growth."
https://fabricegrinda.com/the-great-unknown
5. "As the initial Bretton Woods era (1944-1971) was backed by gold, and Bretton Woods II (1971-present) backed by "inside money" (essentially U.S. government paper), said Pozsar, Bretton Woods III will be backed by "outside money" (gold and other commodities).
Pozsar marks the end of the current monetary regime as the day the G7 nations seized Russia's foreign exchange reserves following the latter's invasion of Ukraine. What had previously been thought of as risk-free became risk-free no more as non-existent credit risk was instantly substituted for very real confiscation risk."
6. A cogent and hopeful view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Net net: Russia cannot win in the long run.
https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat
7. "To meet the new authoritarian challenge, the U.S. and its existing allies will have to bring more partners into the fold. A 21st century diplomatic revolution is necessary in order to create a coalition that has the power both to stabilize international relations and safeguard the human rights that have gradually but steadily made the world a better place to live.
It starts with India.
It’s time to recognize that the unipolar hegemony the U.S. and our close allies enjoyed in the 1990s is gone, and will not return for a very long time if ever. We simply do not have the luxury to get on our high horse and try to ostracize everyone who doesn’t live up to our declared standards — never mind the fact that with the Iraq War and the Trump presidency, we proved that we ourselves don’t always live up to those standards. If we try to make every country without a perfect Freedom House score into a pariah, it is we who will become the pariah — and the world will be ruled from Beijing and Moscow."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/time-for-a-diplomatic-revolution
8. "Many years ago, I was on the other side of the table after we sold Pardot. I was talking to a successful entrepreneur, seeking advice as to what to think about now that it was time for the next chapter in life. He said something that has always stuck with me, “Your skills will immediately start atrophying if you don’t stay in the game.”
Figure out what game you want to play next."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/03/12/post-entrepreneurial-exit-bias-towards-action
9. This is absolutely right on for many of us. We should be grateful for our peacetime problems.
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/the-privilege-of-peacetime-problems
10. Some good stories behind the "Great resignation" in the USA.
https://thehustle.co/why-people-are-really-leaving-their-jobs-during-the-great-resignation
11. "But people like Mearsheimer just play to the Kremlin’s narrative - it was all the West’s fault. So how about the tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars in development aid which went into Russia after 1991? Billions of dollars in the EU TACIS programme. We opened up our markets - allowed Russia to raise more than $2 trillion via our capital markets to let them modernise their industry. We allowed our managers, accountancy first, banks, law firms to bring Russia inc up to modern standards. We gave Russia a window and market to the world via WTO membership. We allowed it’s elites to enrich themselves and fill state coffers. We actually funded Putin’s rebuild of the Russian military.
And what did we get from all this? Animosity, jealousy, and now war. We gave Russia an open hand and got slapped in the face. Worse for Ukrainians now who are being murdered because they aspire to live by our values and not Putin’s.
Let’s not try and find scapegoats at home but realise that all this is because of one plain evil man - Putin - which we have enabled for too long and failed to realise the true nature of the threat."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/mearsheimer-should-be-ashamed-of
12. "So there are risks to these sanctions, I think. But de-dollarization is not one of them — at least, not in the current conflict. The first reason this is true is that the kind of financial shift people are worrying about would have to mean not just abandonment of the dollar, but also abandonment of the second most important international currency — the euro — at the same time."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/dont-worry-about-de-dollarization
13. This is a really great initiative to support the innocent Ukrainian refugees fleeing Putin's awful invasion.
14. Brave men I really admire.
"Collectively, these recruits amount to the most significant international brigade since the Spanish civil war, when volunteers including leftwing intellectuals fought in communist-organised military units between 1936 and 1938 in support of Spain’s popular front government. Gavrylko said he was aware of these historical echoes. Ukraine, in his view, was now fighting Vladimir Putin and a 21st-century version of fascism."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-russia-war-foreign-fighters-volunteers
15. I would NOT want to be on the wrong side of Anonymous.
https://vt.co/news/world/anonymous-issues-lengthy-statement-amid-its-biggest-op-ever-seen
16. This is a damn shame. We need to be alot more thoughtful here.
Not all Russians support the war & at minimum let's not alienate the ones who have spoken out. (in fact most of young Russians and Russians in general outside of RU do not support the war or Putin).
Collective punishment is dumb. Its like what happened to Japanese Americans in WW2, or Arabic (or even Arabic looking) people after 9/11 or any Asians during Covid.
17. Good overview of the sanctions being used on Russia. Very helpful to understand.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-big-sanctions-a-quick-explainer
18. This whole thing is a complete tragedy inflicted on these wonderful people by the deluded sociopath Putin.
This is why we in the West must support Ukraine anyway we can.
https://sifted.eu/articles/ukraine-tech-workers-war
19. "In the past 15 years, Russians have become used to living a reasonably comfortable life. It’s a nearly-developed consumer society that has become accustomed to deep economic integration with Europe. Now suddenly that is all being yanked away — Russians are being asked to go back to the economic isolation, shortages, and hardship of the 90s, or even of the USSR, almost overnight.
I can’t say I know what political effect that will have. Will Russians rally around the flag and see this as an attack from the West that they need to resist? Or will discontent over Putin’s pointless war of choice rise and rise? Only time will tell."
"Protocol did a report on Russian dependence on foreign chips last year, and found that European and U.S. companies sell them a lot of microprocessors, while their memory chip imports come mostly from South Korea and the U.S. That’s all done now.
This will hit Russian defense manufacturing immediately. Over the longer term, there will also be the problem that the machines Russians use to make their tanks and planes and rocket launchers and transport trucks will need spare parts as they wear out, and these will be in short supply.
And on top of all that, financial sanctions make it difficult for both the state and defense companies to actually pay their employees! Companies — including state-run ones — generally rely on a lot of overnight loans to make payroll and other payments."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-are-the-big-sanctions-hurting
20. "Image rights encompass everything to do with a person’s likeness, such as their name, signature, voice, image, and any other characteristic which is unique to them. By selling these rights, both MINT Media and Peter Lim control all decision-making power over the use of Cristiano Ronaldo’s image.
Essentially, this means any brand that wishes to associate itself with Cristiano Ronaldo needs to first seek permission from MINT Media. The team then assesses whether the arrangement will be beneficial to the CR7 brand portfolio and if approved, will grant permission in exchange for a very hefty fee.
The decision to sell his rights came after winning his third Ballon D’or award and at a time when European football was becoming increasingly popular in Asia. Being one of the most prominent businessmen in the region, Peter Lim seemed like the perfect fit to provide both the network for Ronaldo to diversify his audience and expand his popularity by entering the Asian market. And it paid off big time."
https://www.bosshunting.com.au/sport/cristiano-ronaldo-image-rights
21. "Putin built his legitimacy around the idea of restoring Russia’s stability, prosperity, and global standing. By threatening all three, the war in Ukraine is shaping up to be the greatest test of his regime to date."
https://www.vox.com/22961563/putin-russia-ukraine-coup-revolution-invasion
22. Humility is an investor's best friend.
"I have had a spectacular two-year run with hardly any large mistakes. Yet, I know that mistakes are part of this game. We all get over-confident and get them wrong.
I don’t think I have ever seen a diversified basket of stocks collapse this rapidly. It’s the sort of thing that keeps you humble. It keeps you from ever ramping the leverage too hard. Hopefully, it helps me avoid much larger land-mines, because I expect extreme volatility in the coming weeks. Then again, I guess I was simply over-due to get kicked in the nuts…"
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/03/06/i-sure-bungled-that-one/
23. "Self-Service motions are fundamental to the success of many modern startups. For founders embracing a Go-To-Market strategy with Self-Service as a core component, there are four key takeaways:
-A product experience that has limited friction for users to experience the “Aha!” moment
-Highly supportive Education and Community programs to assist users on their journeys
-An organization that treats self-service as a first-class initiative
-Dedicated resources and cross-functional execution"
https://www.unusual.vc/post/unusual-insights-for-founders-building-a-self-service-motion
24. "By the way, I often see product teams and engineering falling for the “better products” belief. Probably because they always perceive their own “baby” differently. Mostly more positive than in the reality of those who are supposed to buy it.
Marketing and Sales believe they can do this with a good story but quickly realize they are selling to the wrong customers or Customer Success and Support are bombarded by frustrated customers.
In summary, there are five areas that must be properly defined and, most importantly, must work together. This applies above all to the teams.
-Market segmentation / Ideal Customer Profile
-Product vision and roadmap
-Positioning
-Messaging
-Go-to-market approach"
https://dirkschart.com/2022/02/21/the-perception-trap-why-better-products-dont-sell
25. These business models are the toughest to execute in my book.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/11/tech/ultra-fast-delivery-startups-fridge-no-more-buyk/index.html
26. "In just one week, Liscovich, a handful of fellow Ukrainian volunteers, and seven former Uber colleagues in the US have built an operation running trucks of essential supplies like boots, phones, portable chargers, cables, tourniquets, and protective gear to pickup locations for volunteer fighters to collect.
Liscovich turned up at the Zaporizhzhia volunteer enlistment office to fight on March 2, roughly one week into the Russian invasion. But when local leaders learned about his experience in tech and his Harvard degree, they put him to work building a supply chain for the under-equipped local volunteer forces.
"They decided given my background it would not be the best use of my time to give me an AK-47," Liscovich told Insider on Wednesday morning. "There were a lot of volunteers ready to fight, but not enough supplies."
27. "The Russian economy has been de-platformed. The Russian Ruble has lost more value than during the Russian Financial Crisis in 1998 and Russia’s credit rating has been slashed to junk and is on a par with Angola and Nicaragua (which observers point out is wildly unfair to Angola and Nicaragua). Central banks are boycotting Russia’s FX reserves. Russian Banks are going bust. The public cannot access cash. Russia is cut off from SWIFT. Western banks, Amex, Visa, Microsoft and pretty much every app no longer works in Russia.
Grindr, however, is still on because it has turned out to be an amazing backchannel, allowing Russian soldiers to communicate battleplans to the West. The Russian public are having to queue for money, food. Almost all commercial airlines are no longer available. Russian ships are banned from ports. Many Western firms have cut Russia off. Star link is allowing regular Russians to connect to the internet against Putin’s vociferous objections."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-news-ispart-1
28. "Prevent Famine: Every core element of the food supply chain is affected by the war in Ukraine: Putin has dropped a bomb on the European agricultural sector. Russians have suspended fertilizer exports and Belarus declared a Force Majeure and cannot export their potash. Russia won’t allow it to be exported now either. Nor will the world buy anything from them as long as they are Russia’s lackeys. To remove that much fertilizer from the world economy (Belarus provides 40% of the global supply of potash and Russia supplies 66% of ammonium nitrate), is to set the stage for massively reduced yields and possibly famine.
On top of this, we now see the oil price up at $125 and heading a lot higher. This too will remove fertilizer from the reach of the common farmer. In addition, Russia won’t sell their wheat and the world won’t buy it (or anything else due to sanctions). The good news is that alternative suppliers are coming online like, of all places, Michigan and Morroco They need to move much faster though."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-newspart-2-prevent-famine
29. I am not so optimistic about any government's "good intentions" here.
"The world needs to create a digital money system that brings the ease of use and the radical transparency needed to prevent government authorities from doing things in the dark but that also protects the human freedoms of the individual. The good news is that there is still time. The good news is that currency is the one the world will want to use. If the new currency is Bitcoin, with all its anonymity and non-KYC/AML compliance, then a new war has been declared.
The good news is that all this means even the government will want a way to convert their crypto into sovereign money or something they can actually use. A digital sovereign dollar will make that faster and easier and give the world a way to transact even if chaos is breaking loose. That’s why Coinbase started to distinguish between dodgy customers and innocent victims of war. Dirty versus clean. The distinction will only become sharper over time. That means more digital money is on the way. Investors just need to figure out which ones will be the winners here. For those focused on the social contract, we’ll need a Digital Bill of Rights too."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-news-part-3-move-to-digital
30. This might look like a hit piece but this dude was always dodgy as F--k.....
"He was bound for San Francisco, completing the first of his many escapes. Sun learned early that in the world of cryptocurrency, heaps of money can be made with ease, so long as you’re ready to exit before it catches up to you.
One of the crypto-finance lawyers I talked to warned, “Business execs should never go lawyer to lawyer until they get a ‘yes.’ You’re not looking for counsel — you’re looking for a yes man.” Sun was often able to find them at his companies, and as his business decisions became more risky, few resisted the way Labhart did. It seemed as though Sun believed that counsel were disposable, like he could afford to leave them behind, tarred by the acts they unwittingly facilitated, while he kept his eye on the pathway out."
https://www.theverge.com/c/22947663/justin-sun-tron-cryptocurrency-poloniex
31. These policies are so sensible that even the deluded political officials at the top of the US Gov't will probably eventually follow them......stress on eventually......only after lots of pain to regular people.
"The US, Canada, and Mexico have enormous proven energy reserves and the technical know-how to become the dominant energy-producing region on the planet. We can do so cleanly, safely, and domestically – reducing the strength of our geopolitical enemies and simultaneously creating high-paying jobs, providing a significant and durable competitive advantage to our manufacturing base, and increasing the standard of living of our population and that of our allies.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent economic destruction of Europe due to an energy crisis of their own making should serve as a serious wake-up call to North America’s political establishment. Instead of seeking to replace our energy reliance on one dictatorship (Russia) with three others (Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran), we should be looking inward for the answers to our problems."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-serious-proposal-on-us-energy
32. I firmly believe this view.
"If you’re dissatisfied with the Achievements and Results you’ve amassed by this time in your life, you need to go out there and DO STUFF. Learning skills are great, but it’s even more important that you USE those skills to make your life better. Skills that don’t actually, you know, do anything might as well not be skills at all.
Because Humans Need Things. And People need to step up and provide Those Things. Being a Producer and not just a Consumer isn’t just good for you in material terms, it makes you a wiser, happier, more moral person. So go out there and PRODUCE."
https://bowtiedcaiman.substack.com/p/better-man-using-skills-to-build
33. In case anyone has any illusions of the brutality & evil of Putin and the Russian army's approach to this awful invasion and war on Ukraine, you should read this.
It is also why Ukrainians are fighting so hard & why the West needs to help them.
https://stefekrajic.substack.com/p/russias-dual-track-strategy
34. This story really stuck with me.
"My grandparents had doubted their decision to flee their friends, family, and home until they saw these dignitaries departing. They abandoned their suitcases, stuffed whatever they could fit into knapsacks, and walked across the border with the help of a smuggler and a healthy bribe — my grandfather handed over his precious silver pocket watch to the border guard.
My father describes that his grandfather had the foresight to liquidate much of his net worth into a handful of bars of gold, one kilogram each, which he carried in his knapsack. As I read reports of modern-day Ukrainians carrying their cryptocurrencies across the border and the millions of dollars of donations flowing through the blockchain into the hands of Ukrainian families and relief organizations, I get the chills."
https://medium.com/@bussgang/echoes-of-my-history-in-ukraine-25865e160d3f
35. Logistics and supply chain matters. This is why Russia will lose in the end, even IF they have tactical victories (which I don't see many of either).
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/russias-logistical-nightmare-will
36. "So people still don’t think the Fed is ready to drop the hammer on the U.S. economy. But even a mild rise in rates could have some effect — Yellen’s announcement of gentle hikes in late 2015, which ultimately topped out at only 2.4%, still probably triggered the mini-downturn of 2016 (which may have helped Trump win that election). And once the China disruptions are factored in — and especially if the lockdowns get even worse — rates could end up being more than 2% by this time next year.
Will this cause a recession? It’s notoriously hard to predict recessions until they’re right on top of you. Economists have a few tools available to predict financial crises a few years in advance, but this recession, if it comes, will be the Fed-induced variety rather than the 2008 type. "
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-russia-and-the-inflation-situation
37. "While in one respect the MOF would like not to be able to pay their foreign creditors as this a) saves now scarce FX reserves; b) hurts investors in adversary nations, and they then hope these will lobby their own governments for sanctions relief, the downside is that non payment and potential default would have serious and long run consequences for Russia.
A default would see Russian ratings cut to default status, and given likely difficulties in ensuring speeding debt restructuring, this status could remain for a very long time. This would keep Russian borrowing costs very high, liming financing options even from so called allies, such as the Chinese. Even should the war end quickly, and peace be resolved, markets and ratings agencies will remember this crisis for some time and ratings will be slow to recover and Russian borrowing costs slow to moderate. This will crimp Russian economic development for years to come.
Through its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has clearly marked it out as an ardent adversary, even enemy, of the West - and its hard to see this changing very quickly. The West will have a strong interest in keeping Russia contained, both militarily and economically. They will have little interest in opening the floodgates again to Western financing of Russia. And as agreement on a debt restructuring is a key initial requirement, I think the West will look to drag its feet. So think here more Venezuela style debt restructuring talks, than a speedy conclusion as per recent Ecuador or even Ukraine 2015."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-thoughts-on-default-and-debt
38. "So the separation of state and money becomes interesting from the vantage point that a non-state money can not be debased intentionally by any one individual or group. The odds of success are incredibly small, and every prior attempt has failed, but if someone was able to successfully achieve this breakthrough, it would be wildly valuable.
The non-state money idea is a perfect power law investment. In fact, I would argue that it may be the largest addressable market and potentially the biggest financial gain available. Regardless, the asymmetry is hard to fathom when compared to other moon shot ideas."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/non-state-money-as-a-power-law-investment
39. "For the 99.9% who don't become the next Elon or join the next SpaceX, we should emphasize collective purpose/meaning bigger than our own happiness: a positive-sum mindset based on expanding the pie. The idea that they are enough and should be proud of what they are, but also aspire for more as a way to continue contributing. The dual advice of “You’re doing OK, and that’s OK, and yet, if you want to contribute more, you can and should also strive to be better and do more”.
Most people need to believe in some deeper purpose behind what they’re doing. We need a more accessible, transcendent narrative for why more people should be ambitious, especially if it comes as any form of sacrifice."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/on-ambition
40. "Nowhere is this decision weightier than in Germany, Europe’s economic great power. Germany is the key to any European boycott because it buys so much Russian energy. By the same token the impact on the German economy of ending energy imports from Russia is likely to be large. Energy has long been part of German statecraft, a way of exercising leverage and shaping its neighborhood. Will Berlin, faced with the current crisis, deploy the full force of the economic weapon?
The basic facts are clear. Oil accounts for 32 percent of German primary energy input and one third of that comes from Russia. Gas accounts for 27 percent of Germany’s primary energy input, of which 55 percent comes from Russia. Of the coal burned in Germany, which accounts for 18 percent of energy input, 26 percent comes from Russia. All told that means that just over 30 percent of Germany’s primary energy input comes from Russia."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-97-is-boycotting-russian
The Hell of Future Spiraling: How to Manage Uncertainty
Future spiraling is a term I learned from my therapist. Future spiraling is what happens when you project into the future your present life. Usually when things look uncertain or unclear. It’s very scary stuff for most of us, especially those who really like predictability in our lives.
I’ve been deep in tech startup land for almost 2 decades and this is something that hits almost all founders at some point in their business, especially when times are really bad. You are running out of money, your CTO quits, your best customer stops paying or stops using your product and goes to the competitor. Usually something to do with running out of money. Things are dark. It starts to look worse as you further project this out a few months and you can’t help but despair. We can’t help it, we’re wired this way as humans.
“Studies have shown that up to 70 percent of our thoughts are negative (this statistic is weirdly soothing—I thought it was just me). Don’t get me wrong, we don’t want to be this way; rather, our brains are hardwired to focus on the bad stuff. Once upon a time, this tendency was essential for survival. When venturing out of the safety of our caves to find food, we had to be constantly on the lookout for predators. Nowadays, our walk across the grocery store parking lot may not be as risky as a walk across the savannah, but thanks to evolution, our brains are still constantly on guard. But catastrophizing can lead to high levels of stress, anxiety, and depression.” (Source:https://www.headspace.com/articles/4-things-remember-next-time-youre-spiraling)
I think we have all been here. And this has become even more common for everyone in a time of uncertainty like we have had in the last 2 years since the Covid pandemic started.
I’ve counseled countless founders when they get into the inevitable crisis mode. A situation that every startup goes through at some point in their life.
So I recommend 5 simple things:
Cut their costs aka burn rate to lowest possible level
Have a 1 day plan and 1 week plan and don’t look further than that. One step at a time. Keep a short to do list of 1-3 things
Keep a short list (no more than 3) of Input goals and actions. Ie. for example instead of a goal of how much revenue you will make, focus on the amount of sales calls and emails you will send
Make sure they try to meditate, sleep well every day and exercise regularly: this allows your body to cope better with the stress
Take short breaks and watch comedy videos to take their minds off things. Laughing psychologically is also a great way to manage mentally
I followed this advice myself during my personal hell of 2020 and even now in 2022. And it does work. It forces you to take some hard action and not dwell or think too much. Having time to think about the situation is mental death. It paralyzes you. What I’ve learned is that once you start taking action, new opportunities inevitably arise for you.
Keeping yourself mentally fit allows you to turn things around and gain traction. You eventually do get your momentum back. Then it’s off to the races again. It gets you out of the “Future Spiraling” which just destroys you psychologically.
When Sadness Turns to Rage: Managing Yourself
Two weeks into the abominable Russian invasion of Ukraine, I’d spent a lot of the time glued to twitter and the news. Besides trying to keep in contact with friends and colleagues there, and trying to help where I could. It was and still is a rough time. Obviously, not as rough as the poor refugees fleeing in the midst of winter. Or as rough a time for the brave Ukrainian civilians and military defending their homes and family against a much larger aggressor in Putin’s Russia.
Racked with a feeling of helplessness & guilt for not being able to do more, you find yourself stuck into the vortex of consuming even more news and tweets. Yes, donating money and spreading the news of the good cause is something but it’s just not enough. You stew in your emotions. Add to this, the worry for your friends, the sadness you feel for the injustice & the loss of the potential and promise of this young emerging Ukrainian democracy and the rich culture life there, it quickly turned into anger and rage. Which is probably what triggered an uncharacteristic twitter attack on that Right wing A–hole criticizing Ukraine & western support for them. A need to take any remote action as trite or silly as it is.
Looking back on this, its incredibly stupid. And that stupid event only led me to more rage. To the point that I almost got into some stupid live fist fights against random dudes who bumped into me, in super chill and relaxing Hawaii of all the most places! I literally saw red. If I knew or ran into any of the incel trolls, I probably would have physically attacked and hurt them. And then who would have lost? Me. I would have disappointed my parents who raised me to be better, been a bad example for my kid and frankly just hurt myself by wrecking what is an incredibly charmed and wonderful life that I worked decades to build.
I’m really quite embarrassed by this, as I like to think that I am a rational, civilized and well educated person. But that episode showed me we are not that far off from the gorillas or neanderthals we descended from. Especially ones put into constant “Flight or Fight” mode now for close to 2 years as I wrote about here: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/why-is-everyone-so-angry-behavioral.
Not excusing my behavior at all. Yet we dealt with 2 years of a pandemic, social isolation and media inflammation. Now we are dealing with a very big land war in Europe started by a dictator against a smaller country, with even more media inflammation on both sides. No wonder everyone is so triggered.
This is why Justin Jackson’s article on calming down came at such a good time. He gives a lot of good tips on how to manage your feelings of anxiety. Works for anger too. I recommend reading it here: https://justinjackson.ca/calm-down
I spent a lot of time those few days just meditating and breathing. And the real life actions I took were sending donations to various charities (www.rescue.org or https://wck.org) supporting Ukrainian refugees. You have to wallow in sadness, helplessness and even anger but you have to let it go. Or it will eventually destroy you.
As the Buddha (and Naval Ravikant) remarked: “Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 13th, 2022
“Courage Starts with Showing up and Letting Ourselves be Seen”--Brene Brown
Some very interesting nuggets of insight here. Taiwan better get its head out of its ass and their S--t together soon. Tsai's energy policy is absolutely STUPID.
"There’s an idea out there somehow that the Ukrainians were fooled into standing up to Russia by western allies. I don’t think this bears up considering the remarkable amount of bravery displayed by Ukrainians after invasion. I don’t think anybody is capable of telling a Russian warship to “go fuck yourself” without thinking things all the way through."
"However, what the Ukrainian situation does highlight, and rightly so, is the importance of preparedness on the ground. What is Taiwan’s ability to resist in the first 24, 48 and 72 hours? What is the morale of the population by the end of the first week? Will we be relying on the military to get the civilians water, or will it be the other way around?
In my estimation the Ukrainians do not enjoy anywhere near the amount of true international support as the Taiwanese and the reason is kind of brutal: they do not hold a vital part of the global supply chain, they do not sit in a position of key geopolitical importance and they don’t enjoy a fabulously defensible terrain. But the Ukrainians have something we need to work on: extreme willingness to take defense into their own hands. Taiwan needs to at least hold out until help gets here."
https://taipology.substack.com/p/after-ukraine-what-changed-for-taiwan
2. This is a really big deal and hope we do it! Never seen it done but sanctioning the Central Bank of Russia could be devastating.
https://twitter.com/RTPerson3/status/1497731514779553794
3. It’s sad that this is needed but there will be hundreds of thousands of refugees from Ukraine, estimated at 200,000 right now.
https://cytlaw.medium.com/cee-ukrainian-refugee-camp-setup-man-101-997fc0c22b30
4. This is pretty awesome in my opinion. F--k that war supporting Russian Oligarch.
5. This is the ultimate go nuclear approach to crippling a countries finances. I am VERY for crushing Putin and his regime & ULTRA PRO Ukraine sovereignty and independence.
But there are huge ramifications and a precedent for the future if we do this.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/
6. This is a good interview to understand what is happening in the Russian aggression in Ukraine with a view from a military vet.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/video-interview-rob-lee-russian-defense
7. Ukraine is the frontline of freedom & democracy. Similar to how Spanish Civil War was for many in 1930s which attracted many volunteers from all over the world.
Retired British ex-SAS vets going to Ukraine to volunteer and fight. These guys are scary good. #StandwithUkraine
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/crack-team-sas-veterans-joining-26350789
8. "So, when you blame the West for paltry sanctions remember that they are dealing with a suicide bomber who might be rigged to blow us all up. There is a reason for the “gently gently, nicely nicely” tone our leaders are taking while at the same time not giving an inch on terms.
It is only human to want justice. To want reparations. To want revenge. Ukrainians will be first on a long line. But, when dealing with someone like this, getting out alive is a win. Half of Russians do not want Putin to be re-elected in 2024, and more than 40 per cent of young Russians want to leave the country. So, he’ll soon be out of office, and out of power anyway.
But, at least he has some possibility of defining his legacy other than the man who dropped a nuke on Western Europe. We know what we all want Mr. Putin to do. We could make it easier for him to take the good road and harder to take the bad one."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/dead-mans-switch
9. This is important. How we can help the people of Ukraine. Good list of charities. This is the least we can do to try to minimize the suffering there. #standwithukraine
https://www.thecut.com/2022/02/russia-invades-ukraine-how-to-help-the-people-of-ukraine.html
10. "The overall trend of Russia has been to overstep, overplay, or otherwise over-intimidate Ukraine into siding with the West to protect its sovereignty and independence. This war Putin has launched has sealed that fate. There’s no further Putin can go to intimidate, and it is clear with the harsh resistance his army is encountering, his efforts to keep Ukraine in check after any war will be exceptionally expensive. This is the end of any chance to get Ukraine ever again. And it was entirely avoidable by Putin on numerous occasions."
https://stefekrajic.substack.com/p/russia-has-lost-ukraine-forever
11. This Russian invasion & aggression in Ukraine was NEVER going to be popular or supported among the populace in Russia. And far less so in the tech community which counts as the most educated and liberal in the population.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/01/russian-it-workers-anti-war-petition
12. This thread explains alot of the blindness and stupidity of the progressives in America.
https://twitter.com/IbrahimAlAssil/status/1498357325060579328
13. This is a very valuable interview to understand the illegal Russian aggression in Ukraine from noted historian and analyst on Russia.
#StandwithUkraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys2zTL-b3eE
14. I believe in the bravery of Ukrainian defenders. But don't underestimate the ability of the Russian army either. This fight is far from over....sadly. Glory to Ukraine & Glory to the Heroes!
"The stiffness of Ukrainian resistance has perhaps surprised observers who expected a rapid defeat. Whether due to Russian incompetence, the value of Western-made weapons supplied to Ukraine, or simply the determination of Ukrainians fighting to defend their country, this has helped international support solidify around Ukraine.
This impressive feat of consensus-building, however, risks the same mistakes that led internationally supported Armenia to a defeat at the hands of militarily superior Azerbaijan in 2020. Wars are fought at the speed of tanks, not tweets. Symbolic victories have their own value, but they cannot ultimately surmount a hard military defeat."
https://www.city-journal.org/putins-bet
15. Very very clever way of fighting Russian gov’t disinformation towards their own people in Russia. Keep it up!
https://mashable.com/article/google-reviews-share-misinformation-russia-ukraine
16. This is a very educational interview with 2 military experts on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Alperovitch, Kofman and Lee have been giving the clearest assessments online over the last few weeks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1Wu2py8pP0
17. This is a very good assessment from military experts at West Point on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Better than garbage & talking heads on media and social media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXEvbVoDiU0&t=2s
18. This is a worthwhile discussion. Bestselling author and Israeli historian talks about the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The world has completely changed because of this. The first time that a sovereign country is being annexed by a larger country since 1945. Borders are sacred.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQqthbvYE8M
19. Angellist is enabling so much innovation in the VC Space so to me this actually makes sense.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/08/angellist-series-c
20. Definitely very useful for all of us these days. How to calm down.
https://justinjackson.ca/calm-down
21. "So the rank ordering is clear: Independence, life, liberty, then the *pursuit* of happiness. And good luck with that.
Although maybe pursuing happiness directly isn’t as effective. Perhaps happiness is more a by-product of the commitments you make: to a calling, a person, a community, to things outside of yourself. Maybe happiness is less something a wearable can tell you, and more your own internal perception of how your life is going. Perhaps to find out if someone’s happy you shouldn’t just ask them if they’re happy, you should instead ask them if they’re proud of themselves."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/on-hustle-culture
22. "But it is not just black gold, all natural resource prices from gas to grains to tin to gold, you name it, are rising. At the same time tech is taking a dive, a trend already palpable during the first two months of this year, but now we are seeing some real pullback which, truth be told, may have been time anyway.
Once thing appears to remain strong: housing. Interest rates are still low, liquidity is still high and with people on the move from one area to the other demand for real estate will not exactly subside. The one sector that is in dire need of a correction refuses to do so. But think about this: compared to Ukrainians who have been bombed out of their homes most people in Europe and North America are still very well off.
Think that through and see where you can allocate some of your wealth to help those in real need. If we have to pay more for some gas to finally stick it to Putin, then let’s do that."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/markets-and-ceasefires
23. This so painful to read but rings true. #StandwithUkraine
"Americans have limited attention spans… and there is little evidence of a willingness to sacrifice.
Biden did absolutely the right thing by cutting off the purchase of Russian oil. And yes polls show large, bipartisan majorities of Americans saying they are willing to pay for gas.
But, I’m sorry, have you met your fellow countrymen lately?
For the moment, Americans seem united. But that unity will inevitably come up against ingrained habits, incentives, and bad-faith hackery."
https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/five-hard-truths-about-ukraine
24. Seems like a smart move on the US Government front. Co-opt Crypto, don't push it into the dark.
"While many people have been anticipating an abrasive government approach towards bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for years, the current administration seems to be doing the exact opposite — they are looking to embrace this new technology and the potential positive impacts that it can have."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-white-house-wants-to-lead-in
25. South Korean Navy Seals are extremely tough men.
This is a brave man going to Ukraine to help fight. Guess this is his penance.
https://www.insider.com/korean-youtuber-ken-rhee-in-ukraine-fight-despite-travel-ban-2022-3
26. This is a bit grim for Russian troops in the convoy to Kyiv. I feel for these Russian kids but frankly feel even worse for Ukrainians being bombed & attacked right now.
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-stranded-40-mile-081212134.html
27. Very good discussion on what’s happening in the world. Russian invasion of Ukraine and the massive economic challenges that will come out in the world in 2022. Worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmRyBpgoS14&t=756s
28. This seems like just the beginning of Kremlin's woes for this insane invasion.
29. Jim Rogers is really perceptive. US dollar dominance is over. Hate it but it's happening. It will be ugly in 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5AyUiyhWAk
30. Just when you think this year will not get any worse.
Fighting FOMO: Learning to Play Your Own Game
Fear Of Missing Out. FOMO is rife in the interconnected world we are in. Instagram, Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, all the various Social Media and TV. We are mimetic creatures as per Rene Girard and popularized by Peter Thiel. You become the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with. And you cannot help but absorb the ethos, goals and values consciously or subconsciously. We can’t help it, we humans are social creatures. We also want what other people have. We envy other people’s status and most folks are also pretty competitive by nature.
I feel like this is even worse in whatever echo chamber you are in, the Wall Street one, the Hollywood one and where I am, the Silicon Valley one. As an investor, there is always some VC raising more money for their fund than you; an Angel investor getting into better deals, fellow investors with better follower counts on Twitter or PR. Many of these are my friends and I am very happy for them. They earned it. But seeing it all the time, it does make you wonder what you are doing wrong sometimes,
On the founder side, there are always other founders who seem to be crushing it. Raising oodles of venture capital money, being blanketed across social media and talked about in the press. Doing better than YOU!
It’s so easy to get caught up in the noise and start questioning yourself and your own accomplishments. But as you learn in these places; there are always going to be multitudes of people in the world more successful, richer, more accomplished than you. You just have to come to terms with this fact of life. Doesn’t mean you stop competing. I certainly have not. But you can’t let it get you down or discourage you. Keep grinding.
It’s also very easy to start to conflate what you see around you with what you actually want in life. Many of us in the world are fortunate to have so many options and opportunities we can chase. It’s actually debilitating for some due to the “Paradox of Choice”, too many options can almost be as bad as no options.
This is why it’s important to crystallize and really think through what really matters in your life. Ie. Perfect Day exercise (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/the-perfect-day-exercise). It’s critical that you clarify and know: What your core values are and who you want to spend time with and where. Having a daily gratitude exercise also helps.
These are the important touchstones you need to get grounded when you get caught up in the frenzy and FOMO around you. Breathing and Meditation certainly help. Mentors, a community of trusted friends and therapists too. Traveling to get distance and a new perspective is great if you can do it. I also read and write a lot. This blog has been helpful therapy to work out my thoughts. I use all these tools every time I get caught up in envy and start thinking I’m behind or start questioning my path. I look at my Vision board, I breathe, I remember my goals and that I picked this path myself. I also remember that a big driver for my business life now is a focus on optimizing for working with good & smart people who have good values. (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/building-managing-and-living-by-values)
I continually remind myself about the the old internet quote: “Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes.”
It is a very stupid game if it’s one determined by someone else or set to media or societal or family expectations. I’m playing my own, infinite game and playing it in the way I want. I am careful to keep high standards that are my own and try not to compare myself to others. This helps keep you sane and focused. Not much else you can do beyond this. Focus on the hard work of executing your own master plan. As long as you are moving forward that’s all that matters.
Revenge of the Real World: Painful Implications of The Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Like many people around the world, I spent the last 2 weeks processing the ongoing war in Ukraine. After the initial shock, sadness and anger around the world; we’ve seen beyond heroic resistance by Ukrainians of all walks of life. Ukraine’s military was underestimated and has performed brilliantly against expectations of everyone, even experts in the west. No surprise, as Ukrainians are tough people, defending their homes against an unjust aggressor. Add a brilliant info/disinfo war by Ukraine, inspired leadership by Zelensky, Ukraine has rallied many in the West behind them.
Much to my surprise, the Western world galvanized by the illegal, brutal invasion has inflicted massive, unprecedented economic sanctions on the Russian economy (Latest here from Noah Smith: (https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-are-the-big-sanctions-hurting). Many important western companies in media, finance, oil, consumer packaged goods and technology are leaving the country. (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-corporations-that-have-pulled-out) The Russian economy and Ruble (currency) has literally become rubble. I feel for the regular people in Russia who did not start or want this war but now suffer because of Putin’s decision.
The failed initial Russian military blitzkrieg, is leading many people to prematurely conclude that the Russian army is a paper tiger,due to bad morale, corruption, terrible logistics and weak leadership. Based on 2 weeks of conflict, it is not a foregone conclusion that Russia will win in the end. I certainly hope this is the case but there is so much conflicting info coming from the frontlines. But even if Russia does win tactically in Ukraine, they will find it almost impossible to hold and occupy a country the size of Texas. A country full of partisans angry at invaders attacking their country and home. Russia has lost in the long run no matter what happens now.
Having lost face & military momentum, Putin consequently has stepped up the shelling and bombings of cities full of civilians leading a massive refugee crisis with close to 1.5M Ukrainians fleeing to other surrounding countries, another tragedy in the making. Big mistake because what we learned is that this kind of bombing does not work. They only end up uniting and angering the civilian population. We learned this in World War 2 during the German Blitz bombing in London, the Allied bombings of German cities, the US bombing of Japanese cities (not the Nukes), the bombings of Hanoi during the 2nd Vietnam War.
There are also indications that this war has not been popular among the Russian populace who have close relations with Ukraine. Russia is clearly in the wrong, having broken long established international laws and treaties not once but twice. In 2014 & now in 2022, aggressively threatening through force the sovereignty of a country of 44M, and a democracy to boot. Despite some corruption and developmental issues, it was really starting to grow & flower culturally and economically. I saw this as someone going to Ukraine regularly since 2007. Full of bright young people used to the freedom and hope of further integration with the west. This is not hyperbole.
But I think the West and America also share a small part of the fault. Not enough to justify the Russian invasion and terrible violence they have inflicted on Ukraine, as this is not how civilized countries behave (Yes, I know USA has done the same all around the world so not excusing that either, in fact it’s even more hypocritical because of the ideals we espouse). But we did not pay attention to Russia’s concerns about encroachment of western borders toward Russia since 1992. Whether we promised or not that NATO would not move toward Eastern Europe is actually irrelevant. In the Russian view, with the expansion of NATO (which is a defensive treaty btw), the west poked the bear. If you want to understand more of what in International Relations is called the Realism aka Realpolitik view, watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 (I don’t ascribe to all of these views but he has been right alot and this talk was 7 years ago)
None of those points justify the Russian invasion of Ukraine at all. I am 110% on the side of Ukraine and believe Ukraine is in the right here. I have many personal ties, business ties and long friendships in Ukraine so admit my bias. I ended up being so emotional about this that I ended up attacking a right wing shill on Twitter for his anti-Ukraine views, stupidly starting an Internet fight that got all his trolls attacking me last week. Not something characteristic of me. A good reminder that social media is just plain bad for your mental health. Don’t start a fight on social media, it’s pointless. Although for the record, Cernovich and his live-at-home incel loser followers can F–k themselves…. (although I should note and admit, his book on personal development is actually quite good, one I found very helpful). But on the bright side, this did make me take a 1.5 week break from Twitter. Try it sometime, it is so much better for your brain.
Having said that, it seems that the West (USA) goaded the Russians and did not try to understand their perspective. Basic Diplomacy 101. Russia has been invaded by so many powers in the past, Mongols, Sweden, France, Germany (twice), so this mentality of defensibility of borders and having a big buffer zone is long ingrained in every Russian ruler’s brain. I don’t like it & think it’s crazy. Who in their right mind would ever invade Russia? But this is what Russian leaders think rightly or wrongly and we should understand this. It’s easy to be goaded into Good versus Evil especially by the western media. But these are the same people who pushed & supported flawed narratives and supported the Iraq invasions. This and other disastrous interventions and even the messed up Covid response or government overreaction.
America & the West at large are not guiltless. We are where we are because of thoughtless & short term focused policies. They led Ukraines leaders on. I recall the US Ambassador even back in January saying in a public event: “we got your back.” If so, where are the troops on the ground, where is the no fly zone? It’s not going to happen unfortunately, for fear of confronting a country with nuclear weapons. I worry many in the US Government will just treat this like a proxy war and fight it to the last Ukrainian. Yet, I will say I’m surprised that the economic sanctions being inflicted are at an unbelievable level. With even some of the Russian Central Banks holdings being confiscated. I’m not saying it’s undeserved but the repercussions to this move will be far reaching across the globe. We will see who wins in what is being called “Banks versus Tanks.” More on this here: https://doomberg.substack.com/p/on-the-cusp-of-an-economic-singularity
I hope the West wakes up and properly supports Ukraine beyond the economic sanctions, sending weapons and sharing intelligence, while at the same time not backing Russia into a corner. A nuclear power run by a sociopathic dictator btw. As much as I want to see Putin dead, hanging from the rafters or with a bullet in the head, there needs to be some offramp for Putin to step off & back down from Ukraine. There is a non-zero chance of some mistake that could lead to direct conflict between NATO & Russia which leads to dark endings for humanity.
I’m deeply concerned due to the low quality of political leadership we have in the West that we will be unable to thread the needle of supporting Ukraine until they win, without causing Russia to resort to even more escalation, whether dangerous cyberattacks on the electronic grids to even more nukes.
We have long ignored geopolitics and taken the last 70 years of globalization for granted and now this is coming to bite us all in the butt.
Now with energy prices going up, commodities of all kinds are in short supply (wheat, grain, fertilizer, even neon for semiconductors). This is the real world strikes back. All self inflicted due to stupid energy policies in EU & USA which have made us dependent on the oil of regimes hostile to our values. 30% of Germany’s energy is fulfilled by Russia. Even the US, which is supposedly energy independent, relies on some Russian natural gas, even though we have lots of supply that we have under invested in developing. In fact, we all recently learned that Russia has supported environmental movements and political parties in Europe & USA over the last decade to the tune of $70M dollars to vote to cut off natural oil and nuclear production, making them more reliant on Russian oil. “Useful idiots” indeed.
I also worry about the lack of food & fertilizer coming from Russia (Biggest exporter of grain) and Ukraine (5th largest exporter of grain) that many emerging countries in Africa and the Middle East are dependent on. (Learn more here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq75Av59-YU & here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5G0L0Hb-iEQ). Also read this article: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/2/27/22950805/russia-ukraine-food-prices-hunger-invasion-war. There will be famine. If you think the Arab Spring was bad; this has a chance to be far worse with all the consequent political uprisings and wave of poor refugees.
And top that off, we have a global power of the USA tired, divided and weary. Also with lost credibility and legitimacy due to disastrous interventions (read Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan) that have made many people around the world and internally question the ideals of the USA. The incredibly awful intervention in Iraq particularly has made many Americans rightfully question the basis of future interventions, even with a good moral and legal basis. After several pointless conflicts this does not exactly harken confidence in our political class.
An Iron law is that “Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.” We see that in the Chinese-Russian-Indian-Iran alliance coming together before us. South Korea looks to be leaning in too or at least towards being more neutral as China is closer and the US is not seen as a reliable ally. The mass de-platforming of Russians from American tech platforms will lead to the growing trend of “Digital Decolonization” where regions like Latin America, (MENA) Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa start developing and building their own consumer & B2B technology platforms. Ones set to their own local needs and under control of their own governments (for better or for worse).
So Why should You care?
Well if you don’t care for the moral aspect (shame on you then frankly), you should expect prices for food and gas to go up. WAY UP. If you thought we had product shortages in 2021, it will get worse this year. In the USA the worse we may experience is higher costs at the grocery store or gas station. As crappy as that is, it’s better than famine and consequent breakdown of law and order in many emerging markets who don’t have the financial buffer to pay for the rising costs of core products we need in everyday life. It’s going to get ugly all over the world as the bottom third of the world that was barely getting ahead, really starts to fall behind. The lack of hope leads to anger and this leads to nowhere good. The global world and complex economy we all know and love is unwinding before us. Just as in Jared Diamond’s book “Collapse” but on a global level.
All of this adds to a really challenging 2022. If you thought 2020 sucked, this is gonna be far worse. Talk about another “Global Wake up Call”. Now the world will have to reap all the results of our complacency, appeasement and laziness. We will be forced to clean up the mess that’s been left behind by thoughtless policies from an arrogant, deluded, self-serving & grifter political class. We can’t kick the can down the road anymore.
Time for all of us to get back to work and start using our brains and learn to think for ourselves. Time to face the music and do the hard work of fixing this mess whether in climate, societal, geopolitics and the economy. Vote out these incompetent politicians in cities, states and countries. Start contributing more to charities and good causes. Like a broken record, be frugal and financial fit so you can help any family, friends or neighbors who need it. It will only get worse before it gets better.
In the meantime if you want to help Ukraine. This is a good site for resources on the best ways to contribute. https://how-to-help-ukraine-now.super.site/
Also some good charities to help the poor Ukrainian refugees fleeing the illegal invasion here: https://wck.org, https://help.rescue.org/donate/ukraine-acq, https://www.care.org & https://novaukraine.org.
Slayva Ukraini!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 6th, 2022
“Courage is Grace Under Pressure”--Ernest Hemingway
"To some traditional Silicon Valley investors, the sudden about-face by hedge funds validates concerns that the influx of capital going into the private markets was unsustainable. Such venture capitalists predicted it would ultimately hurt startups by pushing up prices so fast that they would have a hard time living up to their valuations once the market soured."
“One of the challenges crossover funds have is that they have to compare and contrast the future return on dollars,” said Ram Parameswaran, founder of two-year-old investment firm Octahedron Capital, which backs both public and private companies out of a single $250 million fund. “With a handful of exceptions, it’s hard to justify valuations for startups when there are better deals in the public markets.”
2. I'm very hopeful on Ukraine. If they will be left alone by Putin, this is going to be an even more amazing place, full of potential.
"Ukraine is in the same situation as many other Eastern European countries in transition. Old-fashioned streetcars rattle along streets pitted with potholes. But next to them stand the gleaming facades of new office towers. Modernity contrasts with backwardness. Rebirth and stagnation lie close together in what is still Europe’s poorest country – measured by per capita gross domestic product, it even ranks slightly behind neighboring Moldova.
But the potential is there. You can feel it, not least among young Ukrainians. They are often energetic, they want to make a difference and they want to live in a country that operates by Western standards. And they accept risks to make it happen. Some fight for democracy and the rule of law, others build businesses. By contrast, Switzerland and Germany seem self-satisfied and smug."
3. "By charting the longitudinal PQR ratio top-down and bottom-up, a sales leader can identify when a sales team will attain plan and which parts of the funnel differ in performance from quarter-to-quarter. In between these two estimates likely lies the ultimate performance of the business."
https://tomtunguz.com/longitudinal-sales-analysis
4. "Web3 is a battle over the future of the internet. Not a struggle over websites, protocols, and cables, but a battle over fundamental freedoms, income distribution, access to resources, the right to remember, and the right to be ignored or forgotten."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/hype-free-web3
5. "Monahan does have some theories, though: “I feel like the trajectory of the 2010s has been exhausted in a lot of ways. The culture-war topic no longer seems quite as interesting to people. Social media isn’t a place where you can be as creative anymore; all the angles are figured out. Younger people are less interested in things like quote-unquote cancel culture. These were kind of, like, the big pillars we used to navigate pop culture in the 2010s. And we had the rise of all these world-spanning, like, Sauron-esque tech platforms that literally have presences on every continent. People want to make things personal again.”
He thinks the new vibe shift could be the return of early-aughts indie sleaze. “American Apparel, flash photography at parties, and messy hair and messy makeup,” he riffs, plus a return to a more fragmented culture. “People going off in a lot of different directions because it doesn’t feel like there’s a coherent, singular vision for music or fashion.” He sees Substacks and podcasts as the new blogs and a move away from Silicon Valley’s interest in optimizing workflow, “which is just so anti-decadence.” Most promisingly, he predicts a return of irony."
https://www.thecut.com/2022/02/a-vibe-shift-is-coming.html
6. This is worth watching for some interesting views on global economy and geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atCXhFiveeg
7. What a surprise! This place seems like a crap place to work. #betterisworse
8. "thanks to Russia’s threats, “Kyiv’s economy has been torn to shreds. A trivial matter, perhaps, but a gratifying one.” In the absence of a full-scale attack, Mr Putin can continue to damage Ukraine with threats, cyber-attacks, perhaps the disabling of some infrastructure.
But Ms Simonyan passes over the fact that the effects on Russia’s economy have been noticeable, too, and that while Mr Putin clearly feels a need to show Russians that their neighbours will not be allowed a flourishing democracy, most of Russia sees no benefit from such a demonstration. They want what is good for them more than what is bad for the West. They do not want the perpetual prospect of war, nor the sort of state which that implies."
9. I love this. #Calmcompany
"Unlike a lot of other entrepreneurs, they weren't aggressively pursuing growth, putting in 80 hour weeks, or sacrificing their personal life. Instead, the Wakeman's prioritized living a good life first.
For them, having a business was a means to an end, and they always kept their life priorities in sight."
https://justinjackson.ca/the-good-life
10. This explains so much of the last few years. Physicals versus Virtuals.
"The first is a class that has been a part of human civilization for a really long time. These are the people who work primarily in the real, physical world. Maybe they work directly with their hands, like a carpenter, or a mechanic, or a farmer. Or maybe they are only a step away: they own or manage a business where they organize and direct employees who work with their hands, and buy or sell or move things around in the real world. Like a transport logistics company, maybe. This class necessarily works in a physical location, or they own or operate physical assets that are central to their trade.
The second class is different. It is, relatively speaking, a new civilizational innovation (at least in numbering more than a handful of people). This group is the “thinking classes” Lasch was writing about above. They don’t interact much with the physical world directly; they are handlers of knowledge. They work with information, which might be digital or analog, numerical or narrative.
They are informational middlemen. This class can therefore do their job almost entirely from a laptop, by email or a virtual Zoom meeting, and has recently realized they don’t even need to be sitting in an office cubicle while they do it."
"But the most relevant distinction between Virtuals and Physicals is that the Virtuals are now everywhere unambiguously the ruling class. In a world in which knowledge is the primary component of value-added production (or so we are told), and economic activity is increasingly defined by the digital and the abstract, they have been the overwhelming winners, accumulating financial, political, and cultural status and influence.
But the Virtual ruling class has a vulnerability that it has not yet solved. The cities in which their bodies continue to occupy mundane physical reality require a whole lot of physical infrastructure and manpower to function: electricity, sewage, food, the vital Sumatra-to-latte supply chain, etc. Ultimately, they still remain reliant on the physical world."
https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/reality-honks-back
11. "The bottom line: a democratic and “free” country has adopted authoritarian policies. They restrict and punish the beliefs of an opposition movement. This action is seen around the world. And it will incentivize individuals with alternative beliefs to seek out digital technologies to “exit” the system."
https://dougantin.com/trudeaus-policy-accelerates-the-digital-transformation
12. I think the writer is a kook. But in this case I agree with him. Klaus Schwab, Davos and WEF all represent arrogance at the highest level & are a big reason no one trusts the elites.
"Klaus Schwab has an unbelievable God complex, and he frequently reminds the reader of his apparently unlimited technocratic faculties. He routinely reveals that he believes his group of colleagues have deity-like powers, and that once they unite their overall expertise, these technocrats, once in charge of all of us, can bring about unprecedented happiness and order."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-great-reset-part-two-the-world
13. In light of global geopolitical mess these days. This is a pretty good overview of whats going on.
"The West, and her Allies are in decline facing off against a growing number of rising threats. From former empires China and Russia, to more modern threats: Corporations, Terrorism, and Systemic Collapse. The West needs to accept they are now in a multi-polar order to prevent unnecessary conflict."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/all-quiet-across-the-global-front
14. Wake up call in Europe. Sadly shows appeasement never works in the long run. You eventually have to fight the bully.
"Risks looming of the biggest war in Europe since WW2 is coming - bad for Europe. Putin will be drawing the second Iron Curtain across Europe. The Post Cold War Peace Dividend just ended. We are all going to have to spend a lot more on defence."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/recognition-of-dprlpr-sends-ominous
15. "The new escalation is simply to turn off the power, GPS and the internet. But, not for long. These mechanisms are needed to spread the news but their availability can become sporadic. All this can be done by China and Russia with almost unlimited plausible deniability.
When electrons are weapons, wars become invisible and don’t need to be declared.
Events happen and nobody quite connects the dots or can determine exactly who did it. Electrons can start fires, set off explosions, jam signals. That’s also why explosions in space have to be taken seriously. They can disrupt the core of modern economies."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/escalation-electrons-are-the-new
16. "Fast forward to 2022. If you’ve been on Twitter in the last week, you know the bird app is obsessing over Russia, Canada truckers and the implied potential for more protests/war. This represents the actual value of crypto which is bigger than a long-term store of value against money printing.
To get to a point where you’re in the top 0.01% in anything you have to dial in everything. Therefore, assume competence over a random opinion on a short clip from Twitter."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/canada-russia-and-quarter-squat-trolling
17. This is the big question. I'm skeptical of economic sanctions as they have not really worked in the past except for hurting the regular people. The elites tend to get away with stuff thru western enablers (corporates, politicians, bankers and lawyers who help them skirt these).
But this step by Putin seems to have galvanized much of EU and USA (seems is word) so maybe it will work this time.
18. "Unfortunately, we must also admit the same analysis holds true for gold, a conclusion that runs opposite to our previous thinking on the topic. However effective gold might be as a store of value, if the only available functions during a time of personal crisis are to facilitate bartering or fleeing, it isn’t money. Gold bugs and crypto advocates alike should be aghast at what Trudeau has done and at what those in the US Treasury undoubtedly have in store for Americans.
And therein lies the critical conundrum: alternative forms of money require a benign government to allow for their proliferation, but a benign government negates the need for alternative forms of money. This is a political problem, and no amount of Bitcoin or Gold Eagles will help when the political eye turns against you. Money is what the government says it is, and we just got a glimpse that our views – political, cultural…personal – form a relevant condition to being allowed to spend it."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/what-canada-means-for-crypto
19. Man, I so hope this really happened.
https://www.boredpanda.com/bad-manager-messes-with-the-wrong-employee
20. This is so well said and totally agree with this. #standwithukraine
"Ukraine needs help. Not just salvation from war. I met so many beautiful people trying to build things and help their country. Extract it from all the suffering that happened because of soviet russia. Right now it seems like people in the US only care about Ukraine as rage-bait for klout points on Twitter. And I imagine for most people it's hard to see Ukranians as people because every country in the world has now politicized their lives.
Then maybe you could see that Ukraine is more than just some poor country russia is threatening to invade. It is full of beautiful people trying to create beautiful things in very adverse circumstances."
https://amateurgods.substack.com/p/i-went-to-ukraine-during-an-impending
21. Amazing that anyone with half a brain actually believes this Russian media garbage… #StandwithUkraine
22. I tend to prefer neutral country sources of media these days. Cogent conversation on Russian invasion of Ukraine. (it is an invasion for the record)
"Twice already, Russian allies – the Libyan General Khalifa Haftar and the Armenian army – have suffered stinging defeats at the hands of technologically well-equipped opponents. In both cases, drones, Turkish support and an intricately networked style of warfare made the difference.
Russia’s military leadership is likely to be fearful of a similar scenario arising in Ukraine. Thanks to technological progress and support from the West, Ukraine is becoming a more serious potential adversary. Thus, now might be the last point in time that Russia could secure its military superiority.
However, a closer look reveals a compelling argument against this: Russia would be violating one of its own most basic principles of combat – that of «maskirovka,» the art of deceiving the enemy.
This is the great strength of the Russian army. No one on the outside is supposed to know the exact intent, whether at the very top of the strategic level or at the tactical level in the field.
This time, the Kremlin has deployed its troops in such an obvious manner that a retreat is almost more in line with the principle of maskirovka than an attack. Thus, the deployment itself would be the deception – and the withdrawal the surprise."
https://www.nzz.ch/english/russian-troops-at-ukraines-borders-may-be-a-tactical-maneuver-ld.1670528
23. "I see the end of $ hegemony on the horizon. I think our enemies are actively trying to pursue an agenda that will accelerate the demise of the US$ as the unilateral reserve currency and help foster in the end of American dominance in the global arena. As more countries are able to purchase commodities, particularly in oil, in their own currencies and settle transactions in a neutral reserve asset (like gold now, maybe bitcoin later), we will start to see currencies trade more on a current account deficit or surplus basis.
The US, with its massive deficits, will see the $ weaken in order to over time improve America’s competitive position globally in order to run more balance trade account. I believe this weak $ trade is the structural trade to embrace for the coming next several years and I anticipate being short US$ for years to come."
https://3circleinvestments.substack.com/p/russian-roulette-is-not-our-favorite
24. Food for thought. I'm really torn on this investment opportunity. I will probably not do so though.
https://mailchi.mp/f89749b7a898/i-am-buying-russian-stocks-here-is-why?e=123a1c25c4
25. "There was nothing that Europeans could have done about the Russian government’s decision to impose severe costs on its civilian population for the sake of maintaining its own flexibility. But Europeans can and should be blamed for becoming even more reliant on Russian fossil fuel exports since the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.
They wasted nearly a decade when they could have been greening their economies and also increasing the security of their own neighborhood. Ukrainians—and others—will now have to live with the consequences."
https://theovershoot.co/p/russia-was-prepared-to-withstand
26. For anyone who thinks it will be an easy conquest in Ukraine by Russia, watch this video. Ukrainians are tough people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xml90IvQJ0
27. "I am not anti-sanctions. I am anti-only-sanctions. As I like to say, all tools of statecraft should always be used against all adversaries. There is an acronym, DIME, which stands for diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economics. None is in its own sufficient, but all are always necessary. And if you want quick results, only military could provide it. The other three take years to bear fruit.
I’ve been thinking about what the United States is not doing against Russia other than sanctions and military deterrence through NATO. There is a lot we are not doing. Let me put it this way. We are not doing anything else other than sanctions and NATO deterrence!"
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/political-warfare-gone-but-not-forgotten
28. The world has changed for the worst in my opinion. China-Russia lined up against USA-EU. The new Gray war has begun.
"So, what does Xi get out of chaos? A distracted U.S. may be a net positive given the tenor and trajectory of recent Sino-U.S. relations. “If there is a major war in Europe … it still will steal a lot of oxygen in any war room,” says Alexander Gabuev, chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “And that means that there will be diversion from the China challenge.”
But the irony is, of course, that by tacitly backing Putin, Xi has all but confirmed Western hawks’ greatest fears about an authoritarian arc stretching from St. Petersburg to Shanghai, harking back to the Sino-Soviet alliance of the 1950s. Stronger Beijing-Moscow ties, after all, simply provide democratic rivals a rallying point."
https://time.com/6150027/china-russia-ukraine-xi-jinping-putin
29. Really great wide ranging discussion here. Worth a read.
"There's a lesson here: A successful society rests on a broad foundation of human capital; it does not place all its hopes on a thin sliver of genius. I see too many people in Silicon Valley -- both liberals and conservatives -- tacitly accept the notion that only a few people have real potential. And maybe that's because venture-funded software is such a winner-take-all market. I don't know. But that's not the attitude that will bring this country a broad industrial renaissance or social revitalization.
this was something that Genghis never imagined. He was born into a zero-sum world, where the best way to get rich was to seize land and privileges from others. He won that zero-sum game, probably more brilliantly and completely than anyone before or since. But in the end he was playing the wrong game. We were not born into this world to fight over scraps until we die. We were born into this world to remake it so that we don't have to fight over scraps."
https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/interview-noah-smith
30. We should be prepared for this in the US, Canada & EU. It's clear Putin will stop at nothing & frankly neither should we.
It's not deterrence if they know we won't do anything.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-may-be-primied-to-hack-americas-infrastructure-182256545.html
31. I hope he is right. Definitely can say that the “Will” of Ukrainian army is strong and getting stronger because they are fighting for their homes and families and country. Not sure you can say the same for Russian and Belarussian troops.
#SlavaUkraini
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1497035826139738125
32. "Whether or not Putin declares any additional pieces of Ukraine to be part of the Russian Federation, the norm that kept the peace since World War 2 — the idea that great powers are guarantors of the inviolability of weaker countries’ borders — is no longer a universal norm. And the invasion also shows that although America can presumably still defend its treaty allies, it does not have the power to prevent other great powers from having their way with weaker countries within their spheres of influence.
The law of the jungle has returned, and the strong will dominate the weak if they see fit.
This will have several ripple effects. First, it will dramatically increase the incentives for nuclear proliferation — recall that Ukraine gave up its nukes in 1994 in return for a (worthless) guarantee of security from the Russian Federation. Countries whose territory is menaced by powerful neighbors — Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and so on — will now be thinking very hard about whether to get nukes of their own.
It will also push countries toward great-power alliance blocs, as in the Cold War (when even most of the so-called “non-aligned” countries really chose sides)."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/a-moment-of-clarity
33. I wish I had a fraction of this lady's guts. So impressive. #StandwithUkraine
34. Putin is a war criminal.
"Putin is now, at minimum, a pariah condemned by leaders across the world.
Putin may now also qualify as a war criminal, according to the Geneva Conventions of 1949. War crimes include willful killing and extensive destruction of property “not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly.”
"Holding Ukraine, given its vast size and population, will be a challenge militarily and politically. Russia has the largest land army in Europe, but it would need to send in many more troops than it already has to occupy the entire country, which is roughly the size of Texas.
The Ukrainian government has called up reservists and promised weapons to civilians to form a public resistance force. They could create an insurgency challenging Russian control of part or all of Ukraine, experts predict."
35. Great summary of many facets of the ongoing crisis & illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine and the many economic effects. As I said before, do not fool yourself that Putin will stop here. Ukraine is on the frontlines of liberal democracy.
https://kyla.substack.com/p/update-on-russia-and-ukraine
36. "Public markets synthesize billions of signals every second and distill these bits and emotions into an indifferent number that points to a direction. Private markets take longer to reflect reality, because private ownership changes hands less often, and out of view. But private markets inevitably come in line, and just like the tail of a whip, the smaller market can deliver greater pain."
https://www.profgalloway.com/down-round
37. "With so many miners flocking to the United States, some policymakers are concerned that electricity grids in American crypto mining towns could suffer from the fate of places like Kazakhstan. The US generates more electricity than any other country in the world, save for China, but the power is divided between grids.
That means a shortage in one state cannot easily be offset by a surplus in another. In Texas, which has attracted the most attention from crypto miners, the industry is expected to account for about 6% of the expected peak electricity demand. Yet, Texas is also the state where a miscalculation in peak demand last February resulted in the largest and longest blackout in the state’s history."
38. "We could never have imagined a scenario in which the US would continue to impede domestic development of critical energy projects on the eve of the most serious conflict in Europe since the end of World War II. But here we are. Energy is at the core of our flexibility to respond in a meaningful manner. Reports out of Europe indicate significant division among NATO allies as to the severity of the sanctions that should be imposed on Putin. No wonder.
We are left with a simple choice in the US: get serious about our energy policy and preserve our place in the geopolitical order or be forced to stop play-acting as a superpower. The laws of physics make our cards transparent to our political enemies, and it’s all too easy for them to call our bluff when they know in advance what we’re holding."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/its-time-to-get-serious-about-energy
Power of Obliquity: Having the Right End Goals
The definition of Obliquity is an indirect approach.
I admit I read and listened to many of the Manosphere guys. The so-called Pick Up Artists (PUAs). Their goal and only goal is to get girls. It’s fascinating And It’s just plain dumb. They get it absolutely wrong. The real goal is to be interesting, fit and build enough personal value that girls will be interested in you. I loved reading “the Game” but I was a dumb kid at that time. I’ve learned some stuff since then.
It's the same with the goal of getting rich and having lots of money. The goal is not the money. The goal is freedom, learning a lot and meeting great people. And being able to use money to get more time. Also Having resources to give to causes, people and business you care about.
The Journey is destination. What’s the point of being rich if you did not enjoy getting there or worse traded all your time, family and health to get there. Or for me even worse, these people now have the time and money but are so plain boring no one wants to hang out with them. Trust me, I live in Silicon Valley. Nothing worse than a untraveled, semi-austistic introvert nerd with lots of money but no social skills.
There are so many (multitudes of) wealthier people in the world but I would never trade my life with theirs regardless of their resources. I swear the only billionaire who seems to be having fun is Richard Branson or Larry Ellison. Well, maybe Jeff Bezos post-divorce. The others, not so much.
I travel wherever I want & get to spend time in some of my favorite places in the world (Kyiv, Tbilisi, Vancouver, Lisbon, Tokyo, Mexico & Taiwan among other awesome places). I get to hang out and only do business with people I want. I control my own schedule and have time to read and write. I get to spend time with my amazing kid. I buy whatever books I want and have lots of cool weapons. I get to pursue fun hobbies like tactical shooting and martial arts. I work in venture capital and startups where I get to meet & invest in some of the smartest driven people in the world. How bloody lucky am I? But I also spent 20+ years of hard work and learning from screw ups to get here. Lots of deliberate action, design and crafting of my life. I want to live my best life. I plan on being better and making every year better than the last one.
Obliquity and having the right goals is key.
If you want to meet girls, have fun hobbies, travel, be an interesting, physically fit, ambitious person with passions and a different perspective in the world. If you want to make money, focus on solving a real problem for as many people as possible. Quoting game winning football coach Bill Walsh, if you focus on the basics, “the score takes care itself.”
New Year Habit: Doing This One Thing Every Day Guarantees A Better Life
So What is it? Always do at least 1 Hard thing every day. Something you don’t want to do but you know is good for you. This is a Hat tip and version of the brilliant Luca Dellanna’s “Do one thing every day that builds self respect.” Self respect is key to happiness and accomplishment, it helps you in making the right decision and taking the right steps in your life.
Think about the holidays whether Summer, Thanksgiving, Christmas/Winter break. You literally do nothing but eat, shop, chill and watch Netflix. It’s fun for a few days, even a week. After a week, or even two, you feel like crap mentally. You feel aimless and groggy. It’s no different than eating junk food like chips, McDonalds, soda pop. Feels great while you are doing it, but you certainly suffer afterwards.
People are “Mission Seeking Missiles” as Caleb Jones once remarked. This is why I see many successful founders who sell their companies for massive amounts of money. After a few weeks or months on the beach, they jump right back into the scene. Either investing in other founders and usually starting another company. Another example, think about the super rich kids who have more resources than they can spend, who can do anything or go anywhere. Yet, after eating, doing, traveling and indulging themselves continuously, they eventually become miserable and listless. It’s because they have no mission or goal in life. Their life is meaningless despite being full of pleasure. Pleasure fades over time.
I’m a big believer in rest ethic and having fun. Otherwise what’s the point in life? But as in life, too much of a good thing turns into a bad thing. There is actually a scientific term for this. LD50. This is the amount of a material, given all at once, which causes the death of 50% (one half) of a group of test animals. So basically all things in excess become toxic. For example, having way too many vitamins or too much water can turn toxic to your body, even though at small doses it’s very good for you.
So the point: do that one hard thing every day. Make your bed, or go to the gym and do that extra set of reps, have that hard conversation with family, friend or employee you are putting off but need to do, write and post that blog, do that podcast, make that sales call you have been dreading.
If you do this every day consistently, your life will absolutely get better. Or you will feel it does at least. It’s working well for me so far.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 27th, 2022
“The best revenge is massive success” –Frank Sinatra
"If Russia becomes sympathetic to the bitcoin and crypto industry, including putting the digital currency on their balance sheet or mining with state resources, it will force the hand of the United States. There is a global competition underway that has a decentralized, open system at the heart of it. Anyone can plug into the system. The game theory is that no one wants to start the cascade, but once your adversary does it, you are forced to adopt the technology or risk being left behind."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/russia-is-playing-geopolitical-chess
2. I thought Web3 made you un-cancellable. I guess not. More on the ENS drama.
https://www.platformer.news/p/the-man-who-got-fired-by-his-dao
3. I am very glad I am not in the Accelerator business anymore.
"In many ways, this is the inverse strategy of late-stage juggernaut Tiger Global. Tiger recently raised $11B dollars and tries to get into the top 10% of late stage companies. Y Combinator appears to be going for 10% of the seed stage.
As even further evidence of the value of the startup index fund approach, research from AngelList found that “at the seed stage, investors would increase their expected return by broadly indexing into every credible deal.” The bet that Y Combinator is making is that they can be the filtering mechanism by which “every credible deal” is determined.
This dual pincer strategy of being squeezed from the bottom by Y Combinator and from the top by Tiger made every single investor I talked to for this piece incredibly nervous."
"Y Combinator will continue to do YC things. Its network effects are going to chug along for a very, very long time. It is unlikely that any accelerator will truly seize the top spot from YC. However, Y Combinator has grown so large that there is certainly space for little kingdoms to be built in its periphery."
https://every.to/napkin-math/is-yc-the-monopoly-it-thinks-it-is
4. This is crazy stuff. So many grifters out there (especially web3)
"So what happened? To be blunt, it appears the entire ENS community just got tricked into abruptly firing one of their top contributors and giving significant control over a massive sum of money to an affinity scammer and his friends.
How can we prevent social media mobs from turning into de facto social engineering hacks of protocols?"
https://indianbronson.substack.com/p/jackson-dame-once-a-conservative
5. "What Suarez has recognized, and what NYC’s budget is starting to realize, is that cities are just like the Starbucks. They’re just like the television show. They’re a product.
More specifically, they are a subscription service. The subscription is your rent + municipal taxes, the recurring revenue which governments rely on to provide wages. Rent depends on the service, too; new real estate developments need government. Divorced from requirements to physically be anywhere in particular, remote workers won’t actually all buy acreages, satellite internet and hunker down like frontiersmen."
https://indianbronson.substack.com/p/decentralize-to-exit
6. You should not underestimate the Ukrainians in this crisis. They are tough people whom I admire.
7. "Regardless of one’s view on the stock, the rare earth element story is worth watching, and MP’s success or failure will have ramifications that extend well beyond the stock price. The combination of national security interests, green energy applications, and the need for domestic onshoring of critical supply chain nodes are aligning in MP’s favor. Failure would be a sobering indictment on the ability of the US to retake control over its own economic destiny."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/not-a-rare-to-spare
8. This is pretty much the nuttiest thing I've seen in a while. Stealing $4.5B.
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/8-thoughts-on-the-45b-bitcoin-heist
9. Another data point showing how important Ukraine is in the bigger scheme of things. We're all interconnected. So anyone who says this crisis does not affect you is an idiot. Besides the moral, geopolitical issues this raises, it has direct effect on the economy thru the food that you eat & the electronics that you use.
"According to one power chip design startup executive, unrest in Ukraine has caused rare gas prices to increase and could cause supply issues. Fluorine is another gas that has a large supply from that part of the world and could be affected, the executive added."
10. Totally random but interesting nuggets from history. Spanish conquest planned for China in the 16th century.
https://mobile.twitter.com/evohopp/status/1492417326486011906
11. Surprised this movie did not make it to USA. Alatriste: an action packed movie taking place during the 30 Years War as the Spanish empire began its decline in 17th century. These Spaniards in the tercios were tough men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SX-y87nmZnc
12. "The power to print money also gives states another kind of power: It enables them to maximize their productivity. By increasing the money supply, they can pull more people on the margins of the economy into the productive process. But this comes at the cost of the scarcity of money and, because it puts the newly minted money directly into the pockets of the less-powerful, tends to decrease the power of those who have already accumulated a lot of money.
Hence, artificial constraints of the money supply, like the gold standard, are often associated with extremely conservative politics. Constraining the money supply hurts productivity, but it preserves social hierarchies.
This is where the more benign hopes of transcending nation-states mix with the darker fantasies of so-called bitcoin maximalists. On the one hand, a meaningful alternative to national currencies could allow people in abusive regimes not to rely on their governments' worthless “promises.” On the other hand, a mechanistically fixed supply of money could put an unequal social hierarchy beyond the reach of democratic power, as the gold standard once did."
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2020/10/17/cryptocurrency-is-just-a-minor-threat-to-the-state
13. "Unfortunately, it’s not clear the US actually recognizes yet that it’s under assault, judging by many of its own foolish decisions which only seem to be accelerating us down the path toward Russia/China’s preferred outcome.
The Putin/Xi Bromance is attempting to create a New World Order right before our eyes and the heart of their focus is the elimination of the United State as a hegemonic state. As I mentioned in my post earlier in the week, “Something is Brewing,” I was starting to sniff out something large happening under the hood in markets over the last couple of weeks as Gold, Oil and Bitcoin prices had been rallying aggressively while USTs were selling off and I couldn’t help but think all of this was connected.
This week’s pricing action only exacerbated those trends and has confirmed my belief that what is actually going on here is a speculative attack by Russia/China against the US$ to force the US into major strategic decisions that are likely going to force it to further retreat from global affairs and probably lose the $ as the global reserve currency."
https://3circleinvestments.substack.com/p/russia-isnt-attacking-ukraine-they
14. Good discussion on how to value sales pipeline opportunities.
15. Hope this assessment below is right & things calm down in Ukraine. But truth is the West has long been in a gray war with both China and Russia.
16. Impressive portfolio but seems like a nightmare to work at. Wall Street turned Big SV player: Coatue.
"Yet, as it has grown, Coatue has seemed to lose none of its nimbleness. On the contrary, increased size appears to have bred greater agility, not less. An organization that began life as a long-short hedge fund has spent much of the last decade spinning up new investing practices. Most notably, that has occurred in the private markets with a now-thriving growth stage strategy alongside carve-outs in fintech, climate tech, and beyond. Not all of its experiments have succeeded—a high-profile internal investment in a new quant strategy flamed out spectacularly. But the fact that a firm of Coatue's scale is willing to move, to experiment, to try, is the core of what makes Coatue special.
Another strange juxtaposition is the firm's clearest vulnerability. While Coatue has charmed entrepreneurs with its fast decision-making, friendly terms, and impressive data science capabilities, it may have done so while neglecting its internal culture. To an unusual extent, sources I spoke with highlighted the firm's high churn, aggressive atmosphere, and corrosive managerial practices. All those who shared their experiences — a group that included former employees, co-investors, and portfolio founders — asked to remain anonymous. In one case, that was explicitly motivated by fear of reprisal. "Coatue can have some vengeance," a former employee said."
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/coatue
17. "We know the following: 1) inflation is higher than the interest rate that rich people pay; 2) we know that more restrictions are coming - see Canada - which means your account could be locked; 3) we know that the 94% of crypto buyers are the younger generation and the boomers currently control 53% of the wealth and 4) we know that governments are printing tons of money with no way to repay it and you don’t even get to vote on it!"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-your-future-is-being-stolen-from
18. I have deep admiration for Ukraine & its stoic people in the face of this existential threat.
“I think Putin himself knows that the stakes are really high,” Natia Seskuria, a fellow at the UK think tank Royal United Services Institute, told Kirby and Guyer. “That’s why I think a full-scale invasion is a riskier option for Moscow in terms of potential political and economic causes — but also due to the number of casualties. Because if we compare Ukraine in 2014 to the Ukrainian army and its capabilities right now, they are much more capable.
Still, the US and NATO allies have transferred “lethal security assistance” to Ukraine in recent months, including ammunition, Stinger missiles, and Humvee military transports. The US has also facilitated the third-party transfer of US-made weapons — initially sold to nations such as Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania — to Ukraine for use against a Russian invasion. And while Ukraine’s military can’t match that of Russia in sheer scale, Ukrainian ground forces are better trained and better prepared than they were in 2014, with some soldiers having years of experience resisting Russian incursions.”
https://www.vox.com/2022/2/13/22931792/russia-ukraine-invasion-zelensky-preparing-for-conflict
19. "Even amid the growing geopolitical instability, Achin is announcing the new ventures he’s been working on since his resignation from DataRobot, the $6 billion valuation company he cofounded in 2012. A self-professed micromanager, Achin plans to be neck-deep in each project.
He is serving as a lead investor for Cortical Ventures, his new $50 million venture fund, and as CEO of two seed-stage AI companies: NeoCybernetica, which raised $30 million, and hOS, which is backed by $12.8 million in deals both led by NEA, the top VC firm shareholder in DataRobot.
While Achin says both startups will likely come to be headquartered in Boston, the majority of current employees—including both chief technology officers—are based in Ukraine, the continuation of a bet he made while at DataRobot to look abroad for technical talent instead of relying so heavily on American engineers."
20. "But nevertheless, we have a duty to the world to be smarter than our instincts. The 2000s are over (and now the 2010s are over too), and many of the truisms that we learned as young people are not nearly so universal as they seemed at the time.
We need to leave those decades in the past where they belong — to learn deep principles from those historical episodes, rather than spending the rest of our lives in knee-jerk reactions against anything that superficially resembles the policies of yesteryear. The future is here; we’re standing in it now."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/last-war-brain
21. Kaboom! These guys are some of the best investors and operators I know and have worked with. BTV!
No surprise their 2nd fund is massively oversubscribed and at this size.
Not easy in VC which shows how good they are.
22. Net net: the USA needs to wake the F-- up here geopolitically.
"Will there be a war in Ukraine? What’s the definition of war? Is it only when troops start firing? Is it about psychological warfare? Is it about creating conditions where there is no need to fight? Yes, we are in a war. It is global in reach. But, the outcome of this war may be a world where the gangs better understand who has what and where they have it.
Gang warfare can then go back to the usual stuff. Ukraine will have served its purpose as a hostage in the negotiation. Russia and China will be better able to sleep at night. The US will continue to think it can beat anybody else under any circumstances and continue to be preoccupied with domestic issues. In that scenario, the markets go up."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/superpower-gangsters
23. Interesting perspective here that I think makes sense.
"But then there is Ukraine, which has 450,000 active-duty servicemen, more than all NATO forces east of the Rhine combined. If properly armed, and backed up by Anglo-American air and sea power, they could be formidable, and consequently, very valuable.
We need to be realistic. Nuclear deterrence is dead. During the Cold War, we were able to deter a Warsaw Pact invasion of West Germany by threatening nuclear war if they tried it. But no one believes that the United States would do anything like that today. If Russia moves into the Baltic States or even Poland, the United States is not about the push the thermonuclear-war button, and Putin knows that.
Consequently, the only way to be able to deter war is to be strong enough to defeat a conventional attack by non-nuclear means. That requires an army."
https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/nato-needs-ukraine
24. Still way too early to call this.
"For me, the date to signal relief is early April and the annual Russian military conscription cycle. After that date, new recruits will need retraining, which will stall the level of military preparedness. So this high risk scenario still lasts a couple of months yet, pending some major, defining resolution.
And the core issue here is still is has Putin won anything here? Struggle to see him being a net winner, actually he looks like a net loser: a) Ukrainian sovereignty has been re-affirmed/strengthened, with the nation rallying behind the cause, not panicking and showing real resolve to stand up for itself.
b) Ukraine has been better armed as a result - better able to defend itself.
c) Russian has lost the PR war, look at opinion polls now in the West, showing increased support for Ukraine, Russia seen as the malign actor, and more willingness there to support Ukraine and pushback on Russia. Therein interestingly I was listening to a former US Ambassador wax that DC now views Russia, not China, as the main near term threat.
d) And NATO has rallied to the cause, and it now has a new vision and vigour, with the biggest perceived threat now seen as coming from Russia.
e) Russia is seen as an unreliable energy partner, and the West will accelerate its energy diversification away from Russia - sure it won’t happen next week, but it will accelerate over the medium term."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-bye-bye-vlad
25. Trudeau is an unserious clown & an actor pretending to lead like so many other politicians in the west these days.
"By positioning the protestors as “those who fly racist flags” – as a fringe minority with unacceptable views – Trudeau committed a fatal error: he left himself no face-saving exitfrom the imminent and predictable crisis that would befall him. No respectable politician can strike a deal with such undesirables after libeling them in the way that he did. The only path left was to crush them.
Amateur hour, indeed."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/just-watch-me
26. This was a damn good tv ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BH5-rSxilxo
27. Spot on for startup founders.
"In my experience, desperation is the single greatest advantage you have as a startup. It takes you down to the lowest level of detail.3 Desperation inspires creativity and intense focus. It is an essential ingredient to building great products and services.
So, the next time you feel desperate, lean in. Embrace it. Use it as the fuel to create the next founding moment4 for your company.
And the next time someone tries to tell you to do something because a big company does it, be suspicious."
https://rkg.blog/desperation-induced-focus.php
28. The future of domestic insurgencies?
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/convoy-conflict
29. "Ever since, I’ve tried to never lose sight of the power of ownership, of having “skin in the game.”
I made this idea a key filter in my investment philosophy. I want to invest alongside people who have a sizable equity ownership in the business. The first thing I do when I look at a business is pull up the proxy. If there are no significant shareholders among the executives and directors, it’s an easy pass. I go on to the next name.
Does it mean I will miss out on great investments run by hired hands with very little skin in the game? Of course. A good investment filter makes the investable universe manageable and is absolutely essential for managing your time and attention. Filters, by design, exclude. You have to be comfortable with the idea that a lot of good ideas will slip through your nets.
A good filter should focus on things that help you find winners. You want to fish in good waters. Stocks with higher levels of insider ownership tend to outperform their peers, as backed up by various studies. In short, there’s good fishing in these pools."
https://www.woodlockhousefamilycapital.com/post/a-good-filter-for-finding-winners
30. "So if you can’t actually be a superpower that can match the US, then what’s the next best thing? Well, you can act like one — especially if you sense weakness in your enemy. Putin began amassing troops on the Ukrainian border soon after Biden — a man the Kremlin thinks is old and weak — took office.
Once that happened, he got Biden’s attention and it has never wavered since. Biden asks for meetings and calls. He expresses his willingness to talk to Putin any time and any place. That’s the most powerful politician in the world — and a traditional modern enemy — pretty much at your beck and call. That’s Russia being a world actor. That’s prestige; that’s status."
https://unherd.com/2022/02/why-the-west-fell-for-putins-bluff
31. "It seems simple enough, but CLV is still one of the most misunderstood or ignored concepts in marketing because it’s inherently a long view, and our industry has suffered from shorter and shorter term tactical thinking as we rush from campaign to campaign. To adopt CLV is ultimately to take a more strategic method of measurement because it’s considering the future, not simply tracking results of the past.
Understanding CLV will change your thinking on where it’s worth it to invest in acquiring new users, by measuring the value of existing, and where/how you acquired them. Of course you want to keep (most of) your old customers – no one wants to lose customers – but understanding which are the most valuable is what’s truly important, not just in keeping loyal customers, but finding more like them."
https://adamsinger.substack.com/p/a-brief-intro-to-clv
32. This is an incredibly good write up on how to grow your media brand whether as company or individual. Every creator should read this: it’s a great framework.
https://adamsinger.substack.com/p/a-primer-on-growing-your-media-brand
33. Very exciting new VC fund in Portugal! (biased as an advisor and very tiny LP)
34. RIP Virgil Abloh, a creative trailblazing powerhouse.
"Born the son of Ghanaian immigrants in the suburb of Rockford, Illinois, V always remained motivated by the curiosity and dreams of what he called his “17-year-old self.” As a suburban teenage aesthete, he loved hip-hop, graffiti, low and high design, and skateboarding; everything he created flowed from those obsessions.
When he went off to college, that love of design grew into a fascination with engineering, and then architecture, which he studied at the Mies van der Rohe–designed campus of the Illinois Institute of Technology in the early aughts. And then he graduated into a totally different world—Kanye's burgeoning new chapter of hip-hop, where he became a kind of prophet of the power of youth. First as Ye's creative director, then as the founder and designer of two fashion labels, Pyrex Vision and Off-White, and finally as the first Black artistic director of Louis Vuitton menswear, he patiently prodded other young artists, activists, architects, rappers, and designers to action.
Samuel Ross and Luka Sabbat, Tyler, the Creator, and Heron Preston have all acknowledged that V helped clarify their visions and make them real. He understood, as the old African American adage goes, that you lift as you climb."
https://www.gq.com/story/in-search-of-virgil-abloh
35. This is absolutely fascinating for anyone trying to understand what makes people tick and how to make better decisions (in life and in general).
https://www.gq.com/story/how-feelings-help-you-think
36. "So what’s changed might not be the involvement of the national security state in domestic politics, but that it’s now entirely explicit.
What was once covert, agencies like the CIA and MI6 no longer feel the need to disguise, and with good reason: filtered through the polarized culture war that now shapes all political discourse in the United States, the outrage about the involvement of former spies in politics depends almost entirely on which partisan side is affected in any particular case.
What was once taboo has reached a point of soft, tacit acceptance. And maybe that’s the biggest scandal of all."
https://jacobinmag.com/2022/02/spies-intelligence-officers-erik-prince-us-domestic-politics
37. Pretty horrifying discussion in this day and age. Hope rationality and peace prevails. Cursed Putin is playing a very dangerous game.
https://www.vox.com/2022/2/18/22938886/russia-ukraine-crisis-troops-military-buildup
Bad Days: Why It’s Okay to Wallow In your Pain (For A Short Time) Before You Face the Future
I admit these last few days have been really painful. And very different from in 2020. I’ve watched the Russian kleptocrat & soon to be war criminal Putin bully and launch an armed invasion of their neighbor & cousin Ukraine. A democracy of 44 million people btw and a place just starting to bloom culturally and economically. Now Ukraine is facing an unwarranted attack from the substantially larger Russian military power ( a country of 144M people) where Ukrainian cities are being shelled & innocent people terrified for their lives.This during the 21st civilized century where we are supposed to know better. All while the West condemns them with somewhat tepid sanctions but very little else. As someone with extensive personal and business ties to both Russia and Ukraine, it’s incredibly distressing watching friends and business partners pulled into a war they don’t want. I spent most of the evening trying to reach friends in Ukraine to make sure they were okay. And answering texts and emails from teams I work with. They are all scared for their families but stoic and doing what they can. Ukrainians are tough and brave people.
I am struck with sadness, shock and anger that this is happening. I feel completely helpless in face of this unfolding tragedy and crime against civilization and law. I am having issues processing all of this. I admit it put me into a very dark place. And this is due to so many harsh realizations:
The Era of Pax Americana that started in 1945 is Over: The USA despite all its resources is just tired after wasting 20 years, trillions of dollars in 2 useless conflicts in Iraq & Afghanistan. Now with a worn out populace, divided and full of venal ineffective politicians as well as a real 5th Column of Putin supporters like Tucker Carlson and some of the GOP & Left undermining a possible coherent approach to the crisis. This comment by Alexander Corte’s quote describes the USA right now well.“To be both an unreliable friend and an incompetent enemy ensures you will never be taken seriously by anyone.”
Consequently we will see a major ramp up in arms and defense spending as every country knows they can’t rely too much on allies like the USA or EU anymore (and China and Russia as well). Based on the track record of these regional powers' support, all the allied small countries will arm up. Taiwan, Poland, the Baltics, all need to become well armed spikey porcupines who will make any invader bleed badly just like our Ukrainian friends are doing. Or be swallowed up by local regional powers.
2. The Western Liberal Order is broken: For the so-called “Mother of All Sanctions” energy is being excluded because of foolish energy policy in the Europe that they are reliant on Russian natural gas and then on top of that, any idea of kicking Russia out of SWIFT system has been blocked by Putin shills like Hungary, Cyprus, Italy and GERMANY.
3. Despite widespread political and popular condemnation across the world, not much else is being done. Ukraine is left to defend herself & showing you really don’t have true allies, you just only have temporary mutual interests in this new world.
4. This is the first major land war on European soil in 30 years (last one was in 1992 in Bosnia). A major European capital city is being bombed and attacked by hostile army. It’s the 21st century and we have a major land war and one initiated by a big world power and autocracy on a smaller democracy to boot.
5. And even more sadly, this invasion is against the will of the Russian people. Despite the bravery of many protests in Russia itself against this war, the protestors are all being jailed. Most of the Russians I know want nothing to do with invading Ukraine, who they consider very close cousins. It’s like the US invading Canada today. Putting aside the geopolitical frame, It literally makes no sense to my small brain.
As per Peter Zeihan, the years of 1945 to 2020 were an anomaly in history where the US driven Global World order led to the prosperous & relatively peaceful years we were fortunate to get. Billions of people were lifted out of poverty and very few countries went to zero. But the Pandemic and its crap overall government response and now the Russian aggression in Ukraine points to us entering a multipolar world. We are entering this scary new world where "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" as per Thucydides. Or as Noah Smith put it even more clearly. “The law of the jungle has returned, and the strong will dominate the weak if they see fit.”
This is going to be an ugly & brutal world. And all these shocks have turned into another Global Wake Up Call for me and everyone. The question is whether people will heed it. It’s time to take Personal Responsibility! And in a new world where the strong feast on the weak, it’s time to get strong both mentally and physically! This will be relevant for individuals and countries. In my mind, no one will be able to rely on first responders, you have to be your own first responder. It certainly sucks but that’s what we saw even back in 2020 with the BLM protests that turned into riots.
I ended up spending most of this Thursday in a dazed state. I ranged from crying from sadness to intense rage at Putin and his mafia government. Basically, I wallowed in the worry, pain & fear I felt for all my friends there.You have to grieve for the old world and the old “you” that’s disappeared. And I think you are allowed to do this for a short period of time. Especially for someone like me who is kind of slow. I find I need some time to really absorb and process both the painful realizations and the emotions that come with it. But once you do that, you have to go take some action, even if it's the little small things to get you back on track and out of the funk.
So I went to Church to pray for peace in Ukraine and for the safety of my many friends and colleagues. I spent time posting messages of support for Ukraine on social media (as trite as these are). I also ended up donating money to some charities doing some real good in Ukraine like Mercy Corp https://www.mercycorps.org, Nova Ukraine: https://novaukraine.org & The Return Alive Foundation: https://savelife.in.ua/en/donate.
Little steps lead to big steps on the way out.
Let’s hope Sanity and Peace Prevail. Slava Ukraini! Glory to Ukraine!
“Apocalypse Now Redux”: Lessons from the Heart of Darkness
Based on Joseph Conrad’s immortal book “The Heart of Darkness”, which shows the awful cruelty of colonialism and evil in the Congo Free State during the late 1800s.
Coppola adapts the novel to the Vietnam War movie. In all its gore, insanity and glory. A confusing and dark story just like America’s sad experience in the Vietnam War.
Captain Willard, played by a young Martin Sheen, is a CIA assassin sent to kill Colonel Kurtz, a Special Forces officer who has gone crazy in the jungle. Now thinking of himself as a God with his own private army. Along the way up the river to accomplish his mission he meets a lot of characters, misadventures, personal realizations of the war and tragedy. It's a spellbinding journey, the further up the river, the further away they are from civilization. We see a slow devolution and a growing savagery of men as they get closer to their destination.
I grew up watching this movie as a teen, and was mainly interested in the action scenes. But now as an adult, rewatching this movie, you see new things and realize the depth and detail. Similar to re-reading an old classic book. Some of the most vivid scenes and characters show up in this movie. These are some that stick out to me (Spoiler alert here if you have not seen it).
Probably one of the most famous war scenes. There is the famous mass helicopter attack by the Air Cavalry on this enemy controlled Vietnamese village set to Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries”. I still get pumped up by this song. That is how ingrained it has been on many of our brains.
Robert Duval plays the gung ho Air Cav commander. After he blows up a big chunk of the jungle with an air strike, he tells the story of how they bombed a hill for 12 hours. He goes on to famously state: “I love the smell of Napalm in the morning……That gasoline smell. The whole hill. It Smelled like…. Victory.” It reminds me of the old Roman Tacitus’s quote “They make a desert and call it peace.”
2. Night Bridge on the River, which was the last US Army outpost, touchpoint of the last place representative of so called civilization. A scene with absolute chaos and No one was in charge. A place where everything beyond was something of an uncontrolled frontier.
The War was “like this bridge. We build it every night, Charlie blows it up again. Just so the generals can say the roads open.” Sounds familiar, right? Kind of like the Afghanistan mess over the last 20 years?
3. As they pass the river, they run into a very well armed family of French plantation owners with their own private army. Not belonging to France anymore, but considering the place as their home as they have been settled in Indocina for 70 years. They are remnants of colonial Indochina. They are continually under siege but try to keep their legacy intact.
When questioned by the American captain on “how long can you possibly stay here?” He states that they will stay here forever. They will fight until they die as the place is their home. “This piece of earth, we keep it.” Of course, knowing history, we look at them like ghosts. Vestiges of a past that will disappear. We all know they will eventually be overrun by the Vietnamese. At the same time, I really sympathize with them. At least these French colonists are fighting for their land and their family. While the Americans are fighting for what? “For the biggest nothing in History.” It is hard to argue with that.
4. Coming to Colonel Kurtz’s kingdom and large camp of Montagnard Tribesmen. He runs into some American special forces soldiers who clearly have gone “native” and also probably crazy. Willard is surrounded by a mass of well armed men and lots of dead bodies and decapitated heads lying around. It’s a really creepy scene that shows how far humans can descend. If i am honest, as a stupid teen boy, I thought this would be the ultimate dream. Owning my own empire in the jungle. Being able to do whatever you want with no consequences. But of course, I grew up and realized you can make a pretty damn amazing life in the comfort of civilization.
5. Colonel Kurtz’s execution and slaughter by Willard with an ax set to The Doors song “This is the End.” A brutal scene, where Colonel Kurz played by Marlon Brando breathes out “The Horror. The Horror” in his last words.
Willard is looked at by the tribesman as the new king and god. It’s the moment of truth. Does he take over the kingdom or does he return to civilization? He redeems himself and humanity by bombing them all to remove the stain on civiilization (or at least he does in original version, in Redux version he just sails away).
It’s worth watching as there is a reason why it's considered a Hollywood classic. The movie (and book “Heart of Darkness” by Conrad) exemplifies to me how quickly civilization can disappear if we let it. And how formerly normal people pushed to their limits will do anything to survive. In some cases, they may even thrive in chaotic situations. The question for all of us is when push comes to shove, and the veneer of civilization and laws disappear, do we turn to our better angels of nature or do we embrace our “heart of darkness?” We may all be tested here soon.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 20th, 2022
“True life is lived when tiny changes occur”--Leo Tolstoy
This is absolutely nuts that this is happening this century.
https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-combat-veteran
2. This is a great write up for newbies looking at facing their fears and becoming an entrepreneur. And not just because I'm quoted in it.
https://keithhayden.net/how-to-destroy-challenges-and-worries-starting-a-business
3. I've been bullish on the Eastern European startup scene for over a decade now. Amazing, overlooked region full of global minded, world beating entrepreneurs. This is just the beginning.
4. This is a very interesting path to building independence. It’s very helpful for anyone and Worth a read.
https://boundless.substack.com/p/from-quora-to-consulting-niche-a
5. Every startup founder should read this. Its pure gold these questions.
"Value creation mostly accrues in the out-years when usage, revenue, and growth compound. But be very clear – in order to capture all of the compounding value in your business, you need to start at the beginning to position for long-term durability.
Founders who win big spend more time at the beginning, earlier than you might think, on creating products and business mechanisms that follow these five durability factors and thus drive increasing returns at scale. As their companies get bigger, they get increasingly hard to overtake, and thus their value explodes."
https://www.nfx.com/post/durability-formula-will-determine-your-startups-future-value
6. Sorry but this seems like self-inflicted hell.
"The Singhs are one of India’s most-followed social media influencer families. With six YouTube channels, five individual Instagram accounts, three Facebook pages, and two accounts on MX TakaTak, they have a total social media following of over 18 million. Their YouTube videos — which offer a peek into their day-to-day life, almost like Keeping Up with the Kardashians on a budget — have been watched over 8 billion times.
Each week, the family produces 75 Reels and 35 video posts for Instagram, and 35 Shorts and 20 full-length videos for YouTube, featuring everything from short films and vlogs to dance videos. They have promotional deals with major brands and entertainment studios, even their own merchandise line.
The Singhs are at the forefront of an emerging trend on the Indian internet: family influencers."
https://restofworld.org/2022/inside-the-daily-grind-of-one-of-indias-biggest-influencer-families/
7. Really good teardown of Spotify's business model & economics. Tough biz & no wonder everyone hates the rapacious music studios.
https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-spotify
8. "My larger point: if you see an opportunity with growing demand, and it’s a good fit for you personally, don’t ignore it just because “it’s not B2B.”
Your business doesn’t have to fit the dominant narrative to be successful; indie B2Prosumer products can be incredibly profitable."
https://justinjackson.ca/prosumers
9. An oldie but goodie. Big fan of what Ondeck is building.
"On Deck is undercovered and underappreciated relative to the strength of its business model, the frenetic pace of its progress, and the potential size of its impact."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/whats-on-deck-for-on-deck
10. Good discussion on Web 3 for those trying to understand this growing space.
https://cobie.substack.com/p/wtf-is-web3
11. "For startup founders, this time could not be more exciting, and more fraught with unforeseen risks. Capital is more available than ever, and from a widening array of sources. These sources have vastly differing contributions to make. Some make no contribution at all (other than their cash), and pitch that as a positive! The best founders will think through the implications of various financing paths, and focus on the long game. The end goal should not be to “win the deal”, but to build a great company.
A “cannonball financing” can be part of a winning strategy, but should be deployed only when a company has already built a solid foundation. Do you have product market fit? Have you demonstrated an efficient go-to-market model? Do you have a team that can scale? When these lights are turning green, you might consider using capital as a weapon to dominate your category. But if you over-capitalize prematurely, you may destroy your opportunity to build something great."
https://www.wing.vc/content/the-cannonball-effect
12. This is pretty damn disturbing but this is hybrid war and the West is NOT ready.
https://davetroy.medium.com/situation-report-things-fall-apart-part-2-1241d447b852
13. Bullish on the growing Solo Capitalist trend in VC.
"How do you become a solo investor? By definition, those in this field follow an unfurrowed path. Still, though every story is different, a few “solo investor” pipelines have emerged:
-Build an audience.
-Spin out from a fund.
-Start a company.
-Find an overlooked niche.
-Leverage a mafia."
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/solo-capitalists
14. This should be a call to action.
"Now, the lines are blurred; countries are fighting across their entire economies and every domain of warfare for advantage. Technological supremacy in consumer and enterprise products feeds directly into the great power race for air, land, sea, space and cyber.
Startup founders and engineers are increasingly recognizing their role in this fight, as well. These people are not George W. Bush-style jingoists, but they do want to support liberal democracy and make sure people on the frontlines have the best tools to do their jobs.
America today faces the greatest challenge to our competitive advantages in recent memory, with advantages eroding across all domains of warfare and in many economic sectors. Adversaries are poking ever more aggressively for weaknesses to exacerbate and exploit.
But at its heart, America’s values and influence still offers us immense soft power: an openness to new ideas, to new people, and to new opportunities. Defending our open values against the encroaching authoritarianism of antagonists like China and Russia isn’t optional. Defense tech is the next big sector for Silicon Valley if for no other reason than every other sector will rely on the United States to secure peace in the years ahead."
15. This is a good basic primer for startup founders in the Enterprise B2B Space. It takes a frigging long time (6 years for major revenue growth) and sales, sales, sales, sales.
16. Neat new Fintech fund (literally called "The Fintech Fund.)" Also shows how building an audience and community will be key differentiator for new VCs (and old ones too)
https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/27/10000-subscribers-later-this-week-in-fintech-has-a-venture-fund
17. I miss this man, Anthony Bourdain. Truly the World’s Most interesting Man.
"But his greatest accomplishment, of course, was his life itself. I mean, honestly, WHAT A GODDAMN LIFE, MAN! He lived a scant 61 years, but my god, were those years densely packed. Watching him trot around the globe week to week engendered only the warmest of envies. And, in death, Bourdain takes with him a collection of memories and experiences so immeasurable, and so vast, that they dwarf any book or TV episode he leaves behind.
It is that life, more than his work, that millions of people (myself included) seek to emulate: a life that is hungry, thirsty, curious, honest, compassionate, rowdy, horny, all of it. That life has almost certainly inspired the very hipsters that Bourdain himself openly derided, but that’s a pretty minor complaint when you think about it. He was a man of true pleasure—pleasure in food, pleasure in sex, pleasure in friendship, pleasure in love—and wanting that for yourself is a welcome sin."
https://www.gq.com/story/rip-anthony-bourdain
18. This is infuriating. Why is the USA shooting itself in foot all the time?
"The immediate consequences of the ruling are as follows. First, incremental natural gas produced in Appalachia will be stranded there, driving down prices in that region while increasing prices for the rest of the US market, which was counting on ready access to Appalachian production to meet their future needs.
Second, the decision will limit the ability of US LNG export terminals to meet global natural gas demand, further eroding our geopolitical power and emboldening our adversaries – forcing us to make unseemly alliances with despots like the Emir of Qatar.
Finally, the decision will make it even harder to attract much-needed capital for future domestic energy development projects."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/contortion-nation
19. I really hope the USA manages this Russian aggression against Ukraine better, unlike in 2014. Or frankly in most global geopolitical sphere for last 20 years. (and I voted for Biden btw).
We cannot appease bullies & we still have a good hand (for now.)
"The Biden team learned that Putin will advance his goals with “asymmetric” tactics, or military and non-military approaches that operate within a gray zone, to trip up the United States. In 2014 and onward, Russia leaked a phone call to embarrass US diplomats, spread fake news, and sowed disinformation, which culminated in unprecedented attacks on the 2016 election in the US.
It’s led Biden to grapple with “How to Stand Up to the Kremlin,” as was the title of a 2018 essay he co-authored for Foreign Affairs. He argued that the US must “impose meaningful costs on Russia when they discover evidence of its misdeeds.” He also said that, despite Russia’s belligerent tactics, “Washington needs to keep talking to Moscow,” to avoid unintended escalations of conflict."
https://www.vox.com/2022/2/7/22916942/biden-lessons-russia-2014-invasion-ukraine-crimea
20. This new YC deal will definitely make life harder for local investors in Africa and South America (or other emerging ecosystems).
Welcome to global competition Frens!
Time to step up (or become irrelevant fast)
https://restofworld.org/2022/y-combinator-change-emerging-market-investors
21. Hard not to argue with this. We are losing ground in the USA versus our peer competitors. We need to get our act together fast.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-us-is-failing-to-compete-effectively
22. "Despite the growing warnings, the U.S. Department of Defense is inadequately prepared for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Consider the U.S. Navy, the service with the most critical role in the Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration’s plan for naval modernization, Battle Force 2045, was based on the assumption that the navy could wait until the mid-2040s to reach its optimal size.
Under President Joe Biden, even that plan has been shelved, with the navy now significantly stepping back from its long-held goal of maintaining a fleet of 355 ships. And expected cuts in next year’s defense budget will likely further shrink the size of the fleet.
Meanwhile, U.S. and allied bases in the Pacific have not been upgraded. Congress has not yet funded a badly needed air and missile defense system on Guam, which houses an air and naval base that would be on the frontlines of any conflict over Taiwan. And at bases across the region, stockpiles of precision-guided munitions are insufficient to support a prolonged conflict.
At present, the United States is on track to lose a war over Taiwan. Yet it is not too late to change course."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-02-01/taiwan-cant-wait
23. "Whether an incumbent or insurgent, it is valuable to consider the extent to which a bundle is at risk, ripe for disruption or viable to grow. A good starting point is a deeper understanding on the alignment between bundled value and customer needs. To what extent does a bundle meet customers needs better than other options (as MS Office did) or provide superfluous “value” which users don’t want (as was the case with many forgettable tracks bundled into an album).
Are significant technological changes underway, as with Netflix where the internet fundamentally challenged the established value chain of how content was distributed and consumed, or are consumers expectations evolving, as with Spotify where music ownership has diminished in importance, as access has increased.
Ultimately, the extent to which your bundle is safe to expand, or ripe for disruption is personal to your product, and can change quickly. It pays to keep your eye on it."
https://julianconnor.medium.com/to-bundle-or-not-to-bundle-that-is-the-question-95092146b816
24. "I go back to the idea as to what has Putin achieved thus far from all this? Have any of his red lines been agreed upon - no. And yet by using the threat of force, we are seeing the West unify in opposition to him by agreeing a firm sanctions response, and providing more assistance to Ukraine, and surely the biggest result from all this will be accelerated energy diversification away from Russian energy/commodities.
He has shown he can mobilise thousands of troops at short notice, and use menace, but this is not dividing the West but unifying it if anything - look at those opinion polls released today showing greater public support in the West for supporting Ukraine. He has a large military force, but is he willing to use it, is the threat fo forces credible, and will the use of military force be effective if it is actually used?
We get back to the idea that the status quo, and playing for time, were not working for Putin, and he has tried to mix that up with the deployment of the military on Ukraine’s borders, but has that improved his hand, has it changed the status quo in his favour? I would argue it has not. So what does he do now, withdraw with a weakened hand/position, or double up?"
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-thoughts-on-the-macron-visit
25. Everything is connected now. If you think the Ukraine crisis will not affect you, think again.
"As Ukraine is facing the threat of a renewed, possibly all-out invasion by Russia, another risk arises.
Dozens of countries, including Egypt, Yemen, Lebanon, Tunisia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and even China rely on Ukrainian harvests to feed their people.
The Middle East and Africa absorbed nearly 40% of Ukraine’s exports of corn and wheat in 2021.
Ukraine, the world’s fourth largest grain exporter, supplied 3 million tons of wheat to Egypt alone, providing 15% of the total consumption for the country of over 100 million people, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
But if Russia attacks Ukraine with more than 130,000 troops that it massed along its borders and in the occupied areas inside the country, the world may face a catastrophic interruption in food supply."
26. An amazing investor and one of the BEST global VC firms around.
“That's part of the beauty of this business. Even though you could make big mistakes, there's another at bat tomorrow, because people are starting interesting new companies,” Botha said. “So if you're willing to swallow your disappointment, buckle up, get back on the bicycle, get back on the horse, get back on your skis — whichever thing it is that you can identify with – you just try again.”
The last two years have smashed funding records and seen startup valuations soar, but Botha compared it to an open-book exam: Founders have it easy in go-go times, but when the final exam is suddenly book-closed, will they have learned enough to survive? The same goes for a new set of investors who have only had their companies marked up from round to round.
“It's easy when things are up and to the right. I haven't seen a single story, personally, that was up and to the right the whole way. And so what happens when things go bad? I worry for that,” he said."
https://www.protocol.com/sequoia-roelof-botha
27. This is a really great interview with Ric Burton & NIA guys. Worth watching every week but specifically this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCgwbiuuZNI
28. Interesting discussion on Russia and their geopolitical insecurity. Helps to understand the driver behind the crisis.
https://www.thelykeion.com/why-does-this-map-matter
29. Can't believe I just found this now. Interesting new show on life longevity.
Lions Led by Donkeys: “A World Undone”
World War One spelled the end of Europe as a geopolitical and economic power, and it also led to the ascendance of the United States. The main reason, in my view, was because so many of the bright young men in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Austria, Russia, Italy were killed on the war fronts across the globe between 1914 to 1918. Estimated to the amount of 20 million dead, their lives were thrown away charging machine guns and artillery for a few yards of gain, directed by clueless old men sitting many miles away in safe and comfortable quarters.
The British in particular were remarked by the Germans that they were “Lions led by Donkeys.” Basically, the everyday frontline soldier was fierce and courageous while their generals were idiots. Or butchers in the case of the French. This comment was relevant to almost all the countries. Brave young men, let down by poor, undeserving and incompetent leadership. Awful, criminally incompetent men like Field Marshal Sir John French & General Douglas Haig of the UK, Luigi Cadorna of Italy, Conrad von Hotzendorf of Austria, John Pershing of the USA and Joseph Joffre of France who led their men to slaughter. For example, 125,000 died during the fruitless battle of the Somme. 400,000 French soldiers & 350,000 Germans died at the Battle of Verdun. Killing done at an industrial scale and frightening level.
For contrast on how big and horrific these numbers are, 214,000 Americans died in the entire US Civil War; 291,000 Americans died in World War 2; 47,000 in the Vietnam War. The US lost about 53,000 soldiers in World War 1. The numbers I listed for the Somme and Verdun were for 1 single battle. The Somme involved 3 million soldiers on all sides with 1 million men wounded or killed. (If you want to learn more, recommend “A World Undone” by GJ Meyer, one of the more readable books of the Great War).
No wonder many of the soldiers who came back home, came back disillusioned, bitter and broken both mentally and physically. Shattered bodies and shattered minds. Shocked. All the while wondering what they risked their lives for and lost friends and family over. And they were just thrown back into society with no support or safety net. Quoting actor Cilian Murphy, who stars in the excellent “Peaky Blinders”, describing the main character, war vet and gang boss Tommy Shelby, “he lost faith. Religion was just a joke. Authority was just a joke. The establishment was a joke.”
This sentiment was understandably widespread. It was probably one of the big reasons for the societal change and chaos that raged across Europe in the 1920s. Nothing is more scary than angry young men with nothing to lose. Rightfully angry at an out of touch establishment elite who used them and then tossed them aside. This is how revolutions and riots come about throughout human history.
This also reminds me a lot of what’s happening now in America. So many bright young people across the world, badly served by their leaders whether in government or business. A gerontocracy (rule by the old) at the top of the American Federal government, the crazy amount of lobbying by big business, the selling out of many politicians on both the Republican and Democratic side to various business interests foreign and domestic. All grifters to a massive degree. I mean look at House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi for example. Worth an estimated $196M while earning $223,500 for her government job. Probably one of the most successful inside traders around, who flaunts her wealth while so many American families are struggling to feed their families. So infuriating. I can’t imagine what my Iraqi and Afghanistan war veteran friends think. I admittedly feel raging anger when I see her and her equally corrupt counterparts on the Republican side. I believe this anger can be seen in the YOLO economy and the GameStop saga. Or even with the election of that supposed outsider Trump to the presidency back in 2016. At its core, it is about the regular everyday people saying “Enough is enough” and wanting to see some change.
But there is change coming, albeit in a grim way. As the saying goes, “Science advances one funeral at a time.” This is relevant for politics, business and cultural life. And as a fellow old person & Gen X, if you cannot stay flexible and mentally agile, which gets harder to do as you get older, then be prepared to step aside. Let the next generation come to the fore with their energy and new ideas. Ideas and thoughts that might be more relevant for their times.
Demographics are destiny. The Boomer generation (1946–64) in America was arguably the most impactful due to its massive size of 70.68 million people. But this is now being followed by the even bigger Millennial Generation (1981–96) of 72.2 million people & an almost as large cohort of Gen Z (1997–2012) at 67 million. (Note: Gen X 1965–80, for the record is only at 64.9 million people).
Because of this, we can fully expect massive change to come over the next 8 years in America and consequently, the rest of the world. The influence of the up and coming generation of Millennials and Gen Z’s will bring new energy & vigor, new thinking, and new morality to the world. For better or for worse.
Why Conspiracy Theorists are Usually Wrong: Because Humans Can’t stop being Humans
I love a good conspiracy theory as much as the next guy. There is something attractive about the idea that there is a group of super smart people in a room controlling the world or pulling the strings behind all the major occurrences in the world. Hollywood would not exist without these conspiracies. Ultra smart rational people want to believe in these plots and you can always tie unrelated people and actions together. How long have we been asking about who really killed JFK? Coincidences are hard to understand & explain.
Conspiracies are hard, if not impossible to pull off because they involve people. People who gossip, have crazy foibles, completely irrational and literally unable to keep secrets. Ben Franklin once said “3 people can keep a secret, if 2 of them are dead.” This is why coups and rebellions are so hard to pull off. Because it involves so many people at so many levels. Someone almost always betrays the conspiracy or there are informers who end up infiltrating it. And this is even harder in the world of the Internet and social media.
I also tend to think Americans are more than likely to buy into them than many other people. And maybe we want to believe because we are horrified at the alternative idea that there is no one in charge. And hate the idea that bad things in the world happen due to accidents and randomness.
What I learned from 2020: I don’t believe there is a crazy plot behind Covid.
Hanlon’s razor says, “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence.” I think Covid’s breakout from China and many of the governments across the world’s gross overreaction was not a master plot. I think this is just all due to people at all levels of the power structure being human. Humans who are lazy, scared, selfish & incompetent. Most people fit this category.
Do I think there are players taking advantage of this chaos, absolutely. Do I think the USA is being targeted by China and Russia with PsyOps & disinformation war? Absolutely. Read “Wires for War” by Helberg, “The Hundred Year Marathon” by Pillsbury, “Ill Winds” by Diamond, “Putin’s World” by Stent, “Three Dangerous Men” by Jones, “The Shadow War” by Sciutto & “Rigged “ by Shimer. (Yes, I have been reading a lot about this topic.) For the record we are doing the same to them too, just not as well, even though we have long experience of this in Latin America and the Middle East.
So what’s the point? There is no global conspiracy or plot. But that doesn’t mean you can’t do anything to make your life better by managing your psychology. Read good books. Watch your media diet (ie. Ignore both Fox and CNN/MSNBC), use your brain, do your own research and learn to think critically for yourself. Be resilient. And be a prepper in case of any ensuing chaos. THIS IS THE WAY.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 13th, 2022
“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.”-- Nelson Mandela
A very good prognosis on the state of geopolitics right now. Watch Korea, Africa & the Arctic. Everything is interconnected.
"Is it possible that we are drifting into conflict without fully understanding the multiple chessboards and multiple pieces in play? Are we being too narrowly focused on our own perspective and not seeing the world as others do, whether rightly or wrongly? Maybe this explains why the President of Ukraine is asking the US to back off.
This may be how this all ends. Imagine a world where Ukraine invites Russia in as a partner, not necessarily as a friend, but as a partner. Imagine a world where the two Koreas invite China in as a partner, not necessarily a friend, but as a partner. Would most Americans rather face a global conflagration or get back to solving the many problems of everyday life and of building a better future? Maybe there is a way to talk down the build-up? Maybe this is not about logic.
Our love of peace may outweigh our desire to have this particular fight in this particular way at this particular time. That doesn’t mean the end of competition. The superpowers will always compete. But it isn’t often they talk themselves to the brink of a nuclear exchange. When they do, ironically, emotion might work better than rationale."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/warwhere-3-fronts
2. Depressing conversation as it really highlights how the USA & many of its key institutions like the military, US Government, media & the US dollar really are declining. I hate to hear it but it’s a really strong case.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3tBmfG_1Ac
3. This seems kind of crazy that this exists.
"You see, in a place like Harardhere, many would join a private gang simply to avoid a life of militancy, poverty, and petty theft. As you can imagine, in this capitalist society of ours where cash rules everything around us, the natural evolution to undertaking piracy out of necessity was to organise amongst themselves – and make an absolute killing from it. Thus the world’s first Pirate Stock Exchange was established.
While to this day, there are no credible statistics available to confirm the number of entities listed, The Wall Street Journal reported over 70 distinct maritime operations are listed on the Harardheere Pirate Stock Exchange. Similar to the days of the Dutch East India Company, when a pirate mission is successful, the investors who bankrolled said pirate mission earns a share of the total profits."
https://www.bosshunting.com.au/hustle/pirate-stock-exchange
4. "Western countries are far bigger and richer than Russia. They can make Putin’s gamble seem unappealing and dangerous, by resisting his aggression and supporting Ukraine. For their part, Ukrainians should remember that neither Russian provocations nor Western support matter as much as their own solidarity and determination."
https://cepa.org/war-within-a-war
5. "What is Up? Up means that you’re able to do two things: 1) increase your lifestyle and 2) save a higher percentage of earnings. This is a pretty difficult task for the majority of the population
For those that understand compounding, this means that the traditional advice of saving 10% doesn’t work *and* the frugality advice that suggests never upgrading doesn’t work as well (you will become a boring and strange person over time). Autist Note: flat savings rates don’t create wealth because you should make significantly more every 3-5 years or so. If you made $100K this year and make $300K next year, that $10K from last year would represent only 3.33% of annual savings for a person making $300K (doesn’t move the needle)
Solution: The solution is always the same, which is to earn more money with a wide range of strategies: 1) multiple careers, 2) career + WiFi business and 3) ideally tons of WiFi businesses since they have infinite scale - good luck checking out 1,000 customers in 60 seconds with a Brick and Mortar!
Instead an elite person has the following characteristics: 1) happy with his/her life; 2) in shape physically - top 10% at minimum for their age bracket determined by lifting strength and 3) *passive* income of $15,000 US Trash Token per month."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/are-you-on-track-to-be-elite-find
6. This is not good.
"The US is still the largest producer of oil and gas in the world, making its energy policy – and the desire of foreign powers to influence it – no less important than it was then. Longtime readers of Doomberg will know we have been critical of America’s energy strategy and have spilled much ink describing the predictable consequences of its obvious blunders. By closing existing nuclear power plants, opposing the development of reliable fossil fuels at virtually every opportunity, attacking existing energy infrastructure choke points, and constraining capital for future development, the behavior seems virtually indistinguishable from what we would be doing if an adversarial foreign power were in charge of our affairs.
With demand for oil and gas already surpassing pre-Covid levels and set to rip higher once the global economy fully reopens, the stage is set for an epic blowoff top in energy prices. The gap between suppressed supply and unquenchable demand could stretch to unthinkable levels, just as a sizable wedge of the world’s population sits on the cusp of a well-known and substantial step-up in demand."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/shooting-oil-in-a-barrel
7. "For me, when the dust settles, and the market comes back — and it will come back, no doubt — here’s my the big takeaway in my mind: Companies big and small will be examined through the lens of growth narratives driven by product diversity. It’s no longer good enough to just handle online storage, or to just facilitate online meetings, or to just empower consumers to freely trade securities.
Public investors and quantum computers who can vote with their feet every millisecond are likely going to reallocate their money into companies that demonstrate the vision and execution to not only acquire assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, but also key infrastructure like Parse and Onavo; or assets like Slack and Tableau; or assets like Minecraft, LinkedIn, and Activision.
The public markets will likely reward those companies who can diversify their product lines into messaging, analytics, gaming, and more — those special companies and business leaders who continue to bundle value into their platforms."
https://semilshah.com/2022/01/29/the-market-is-the-greatest-critic
8. Not for me as a city guy but it’s a good option for folks who like small towns and with Starlink coming, remote workers could really take advantage of this.
https://thehustle.co/would-you-take-free-land-in-rural-america
9. This is a great trend in my opinion. We need more entrepreneurs.
https://www.vox.com/recode/22884040/more-americans-starting-own-business-entrepreneur
10. This is a great thread on startups that do not raise VC $$. Love to see this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/josephflaherty/status/1488389092039614465
11. Good for him. I think he went on the Tweet storm rampage because he knew he was moving up to chairman role of Bolt (not stepping down because of it). He is at the F--U stage of life which is where we all should aspire to get to.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/01/31/ryanbreslow-bolt
12. I'm hopeful for Ukraine. Anyone who has spent time there, see the amazing potential and the awesome people.
https://cepa.org/war-within-a-war
13. The real reason driving the crisis in Ukraine? This is a very interesting and personality driven take.
https://time.com/6144109/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-viktor-medvedchuk
14. "Web3 is a world-changing opportunity to make a better version of the internet and wrest it away from the behemoths who control it today.
Web3 will make some people a lot of money. But many other people will lose their shirts on it.
So I’ve been spending time — and trying to adopt a mindset of cautious skepticism — attempting to figure out Web3 for myself. Spoiler: I didn’t quite figure it out.
But I found enough smart, thoughtful people who are genuinely fascinated with this stuff to make me think that there still may be something here, even while so much of it is nonsensical or worse. So I’ll keep paying attention. You might want to, too."
https://www.vox.com/recode/22907072/web3-crypto-nft-bitcoin-metaverse
15. Damn, that is a big VC fund. Tiger Global Fund 15. 11 Billion Dollars.
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/tiger-global-raised-11-billion-for-new-venture-fund
16. "Putin is preparing to invade Ukraine again—or pretending he will invade Ukraine again—for the same reason. He wants to destabilize Ukraine, frighten Ukraine. He wants Ukrainian democracy to fail. He wants the Ukrainian economy to collapse. He wants foreign investors to flee. He wants his neighbors—in Belarus, Kazakhstan, even Poland and Hungary—to doubt whether democracy will ever be viable, in the longer term, in their countries too.
Farther abroad, he wants to put so much strain on Western and democratic institutions, especially the European Union and NATO, that they break up. He wants to keep dictators in power wherever he can, in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. He wants to undermine America, to shrink American influence, to remove the power of the democracy rhetoric that so many people in his part of the world still associate with America. He wants America itself to fail."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465
17. This is pretty baller if you ask me.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/hacker-pajamas-north-korea
18. I mean, VC is in the human potential business after all.
"Still, the strongest indicator that VC could maybe use a reset ties to VCs’ eagerness to fund people who’ve yet to even start a company. “It’s not a new trend,” says Niko Bonatsos, a managing director with General Catalyst. “But it’s becoming more visible now because of the massive rise of pre-seed and seed investing,” he continues. “There are a ton of general partners, bigger funds and more deals, and we’re all getting paid to invest the capital.”
https://techcrunch.com/2022/02/03/no-company-no-problem
19. Great discussion on startup valuations. Especially many VCs and angels have only been investing in a bull market (myself included). We'll soon be learning who is really good (and who isn't)
"As an investor you're trying to use a valuation to balance risk and opportunity. If you look at the bull and the bear case you're looking at a wide range of possible outcomes. You have to ask the question, "what do I believe?" How confident am I in this company’s ability to triple next year? The year after that? Are they hiring enough people to make that happen? The right people? How big is this market? How competitive is it?
You have to decide what you believe. But once you do you have to ask yourself how capable you are of developing conviction if this is a "generational company" at $400M but an “irresponsible risk” at $500M."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/valuations
20. Lessons from Microsoft: a somewhat overlooked tech Juggernaut. Super bullish on them.
"If it plays its cards right, Microsoft can become the first $10T company. And startup founders would be wise to learn from the behemoth in Redmond."
https://luttig.substack.com/p/dont-forget-microsoft
21. This is a really solid book list for the aspiring Sovereign Individual.
https://dougantin.com/the-sovereign-individuals-reading-list-10-books
22. Important and worthwhile discussion on America's policy to Taiwan and Ukraine. Both places full of friends and of very deep personal and commercial interests to me.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-stop-linking-their-fates-together
23. Important and worthwhile discussion on America's policy to Taiwan and Ukraine. Both places full of friends and of very deep personal and commercial interests to me.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/01/taiwan-is-not-ukraine-stop-linking-their-fates-together
24. For anyone who says Ukraine is not strategic to the west. This is proof otherwise.
"So, not only does the east of Ukraine produce most of its wheat and metals (its core export products) but it is also its economic heart – the very key to its place in global supply chains.
The bad news is that wars are usually fought over supply chains. Ukrainians know this. In the 13th century, the grandchildren of Genghis Khan expanded the Mongol Empire well into modern-day Ukraine, destroying Kyiv in the process. Adolf Hitler looked to improve Germany’s food supplies during WWII, by exploiting the country’s agriculture industry.
More recently, Vladimir Putin seized control of Crimea and its oil reserves. According to The Telegraph, Ukraine lost 80% of its oil and gas assets in the Black Sea, which translates to hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenues. Russia then backed separatists who started to seize parts of the country’s industrial hubs."
https://intelligencequarterly.com/europe-politics/why-ukraine-mr-putin
25. I truly hope this assessment on the present Ukraine-Russia crisis is correct.
26. This is pretty awesome.
"Although Radić is an above average player – his FIDE rating currently sits at 1,950 – it isn’t his playing that makes him a household name among chess enthusiasts. Instead, Radić is one of the most recognizable faces in chess because he created agadmator’s Chess Channel, a YouTube property with a staggering 1.21 million subscribers and over 553 million total views.
Radić is pursuing the work of his life."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/thats-the-good-stuff
27. Tallinn is a great city for digital nomads, although for me more in spring and summer than in winter. :)
28. If you think the Russia-Ukraine crisis does not affect you, you are grossly wrong. Reverberations will be global. Worth a read.
"Ultimately, the investment impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis will come down to how serious Russia is. If I am wrong about Russia’s intentions – if Russia really is preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – the West will react with sanctions against Russia that will reverberate throughout the global economy as energy prices and food prices surge upwards. If this happens, you ain’t seen nothing yet with inflation. It’s precisely because of this that I rate the probability of full-blown invasion as fairly low – it’s mutually assured destruction.
If things continue as they have been – continued dialogue leading to some kind of resolution, or at minimum a stalemate – expect more of the same, i.e., in the short-term, higher energy prices, a weaker ruble, downward pressure on Russian equities, and upward pressure on key Russian commodities, like wheat, fertilizer, and nickel, in the coming months – all of which present interesting opportunities for the brave of heart if, as geopolitics suggests, this situation resolves itself without a full-scale war."
https://www.thelykeion.com/explained-russia-and-ukraine
29. I definitely agree with this assessment, hosting the Olympics makes no sense for China right now. In fact, hosting Olympics in general are bad for host cities/countries economically.
https://ianbremmer.bulletin.com/is-hosting-the-olympics-worth-it-for-china
30. This is a good overview of investing in Longevity Biotech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoBspwgK-aA&list=PLllUANZc4t_BdISxxtngFByiRJHyIoAju&index=3
31. These takes are always interesting. Can't wait for his book in June. One thing I think Zeihan overlooks is the effect of technology & think he is overly optimistic about the USA which is a mess. Still good geopolitical take.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMGSz5ntWLI
32. So much potential in Turkey. Hope they can turn this around.
Great analysis on Turkey's macroeconomic environment. Lessons for other emerging markets.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/turkey-you-were-doing-so-well
33. This is the best show online bar none. Great episode of the All in Podcast today.
Be Water: The Story of Bruce Lee, An Original Cultural Pioneer
I watched an amazing documentary on Bruce Lee, the legendary martial artist and movie star. He was born in San Francisco, grew up in Hong Kong but then immigrated back to the USA as a young adult at 18 with $100 usd. He literally started from the bottom and exemplifies the Chinese saying: “savoring the sweet while remembering the bitter.”
Bruce was such a charismatic individual who despite being rejected by white Hollywood with him given side kick roles. He ended up going back to HK to restart, becoming big before he came back to the US to hit it big. He was a teacher, actor/ entertainer, philosopher and amazing martial artist. In America, he broke barriers by teaching Kung Fu to anyone, not just Chinese people. He taught a philosophy of self actualization: “don’t accept the stereotype image that is cast upon you by others. Find what is worthwhile in yourself and express it”
I’ve learned so much from him and he has been inspiring Asian Americans since I was a kid. This post is not about railing about what was a racist system in America and how Hollywood at that time was reflective of this. It was the manifestation of the relatively closed and intolerant times back then.
But my point is that Bruce Lee never gave up despite the racism and all the other open and hidden barriers in his way. His “goal was always to show the beauty of Chinese culture” and boy did he succeed. He was known as the “cool Chinese guy” and Asia guru by many Hollywood stars like Steve McQueen & James Coburn.
He was flexible mentally, hence “be like water”, ambitious and very confident. Bruce was willing to move to Hong Kong to regroup when he was rejected in America. He realized that following the system didn’t work, so he decided to create something where he could showcase himself. He learned, built an audience of fans and planned his re-entry to Hollywood and America. He was resilient, persevered and just plain worked his damn ass off. There was a sense of inevitability to me.
He died way too young at 32 years of age but left an amazing legacy. One that has only started being filled in Hollywood now by Asian leading men recently in blockbusters like “Crazy Rich Asians” & “Shang Chi”. This should be incredibly inspiring for all of us. He succeeded in making a cultural impact that still resonates to this day. He has been an icon for the last 50 years (I love my DJ Bruce Lee t-shirt!).
I truly believe that Bruce Lee exemplifies the quote from the movie Gladiator: “What we do in life, echoes in eternity.”