X aka Twitter & Geopolitical Takes
X aka Twitter can be a cesspool of hate and anger. I may even contribute to that a little bit. The incredible amount of hate & vitriol I got as a “VC tech bro” commenting on geopolitical stuff was insane back in July. But that’s the game. Bunch of anonymous incels or troll bots urged on by the engagement algorithm that X has become.
Having said that, I’ve gotten so much insight and inspiration from X despite the crazy on the site. You have to mine it and filter well. Folks like @vtchakarova, @SariArhoHavren, @ektrit, @MartinSkold2 & @TheMichaelEvery have been particularly insightful and helpful for developing my mindmap of the future and for understanding the present, geopolitically speaking.
So speaking about geopolitical takes, I found two really good ones recently that I think will withstand the test of time. This is bearing in mind that we are barely past the middle of 2025 and several months into the 2nd Trump Administration where Narrative seems to have overtaken reality. And it’s been chaotic to say the least.
Just Another Pod God has had some incredible economic and geopolitical takes. Been right more often than not. This is one he put out on July 31st. https://x.com/TMTLongShort/status/1950722758674972754:
“People are not ready for the gasoline that is being poured on the American economy over the next 6 - 12 months.
In part this seems to be a function of investors having been conditioned to observe insane levels of fiscal deficits and assume this is just more of the same. It is not.
There is a lot of pent up demand among CEOs who have been mired in red tape and are jonesing to take advantage of a loose regulatory regime. There is a marked difference in productivity between growing GDP via cheap migrants vs growing real-wages and disincentivizing welfare usage.
They are generating a step-up in unmet demand via tariff walls and on-shoring that suddenly needs to be met via domestic production. There are a bunch of export markets that are suddenly accessible for the first time. Will some countries still be protectionist via non-tariff barriers? Sure. Is the admin manically focused on this? Seems that way. Greer reportedly started every meeting with a thick binder of non-tariff barriers to address. Let’s see how well they did their homework.
Regardless you only need a fraction of untapped markets to open. And this is all before you see any productivity gains from AI. Now do I think investors aren’t properly pricing in China trade escalation?
Yes. Absolutely. But does that mean you should be shorting US equities as a way to express this? Probably not. (Not financial advice, just a tech pod guy ruminating)”
I think people are underestimating the boom that could happen post summer. I can tell you from a Silicon Valley perspective I am expecting a massive level of economic activity whether investments or acquisitions on the tech side. Post Reindustrialize Summit I sense the same thing will happen in the so-called Rust Belt of America despite the chaos caused by the Liberation Day tariffs.
Object Zero gives even more tactical advice.
https://x.com/Object_Zero_/status/1950537084332028052:
“This is not financial advice, but… Anyone who really believes in the AI future over a 10-15 year horizon should put their money where their mouth is and make the following macro trade. Bet against human labour…
Short consumer durables, consumer services, short retail, short healthcare and pharma, short media, short housebuilding, short food and bev, All this stuff is going to be slowly strangled by their customer base’s dying purchasing power, and will be replaced by UBI and/or public sector services. Bet on machine labour…
Long industrials, long commodities, long energy, long commercial services, long capital goods, long commercial banks, long big tech, long heavy infrastructure. All this stuff forms a virtuous capital cycle and it’s going to bootstrap itself to unimaginable new heights. In summary short consumers and retail, long industrials and commercials.
This will look really obvious by 2040, but it’s very difficult to see it when you’re standing in the middle of the fog and people are focused on who will win the foundational model arms race, all those theories are priced in but the macro human v machine trade isn’t.”
This completely fits my thesis for the next decade and I have positioned myself and my business for this. We will see if this plays out. Exciting times.