Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 24th, 2025
“Summertime is always the best of what might be” – Charles Bowden
"The key point here is that a person can now be identified remotely by their walking gait, by their unique and undisguisable heartbeat, even by their molecules. You cannot hide from this panopticon. The weapons systems needed to take you out are cheap and fast – small drones that place a “warhead on a forehead”. You can’t sleep soundly anymore, knowing that the warhead can pass through your apartment wall.
One wrong move or wrong word, and you are dead in a heartbeat. This is a new kind of warfare. It's no longer about tanks or soldiers. This is a space-based/digital AI-directed war. The rules and risks have changed for everyone. We should remember this as we think about our own country’s AI-led surveillance plans.
The geopolitics have changed too. All of the geopolitical players have been forced to recognize that Trump is now a lethal threat. TACO (Trump always Chickens out, must change to, “Trump Always Comes up with Options). Offers are negotiating tactics for him. When he withdraws an option, it is not conceding; it is because something else has changed. In my experience in geopolitics and in business, few experts in geopolitics have any understanding of how business deals happen. This is because the currency of geopolitics is power, while the currency of business is money.
The typical property deal that Trump works on is high stakes, big, and messy. It involves many players beyond the buyer and seller, including unions, organized crime, local, state, and federal officials, complex regulations, regulatory enforcement agencies, and investors. Every property deal has to be a win-win for everyone. The contest is to see who makes the most money out of the deal. However, most deals will fail if any party ends up as a loser. That means property deals require giving up power at points in the negotiation. Geopolitics experts tend to fall into Kissinger’s approach to power – you must never give up any power, no matter what.
Concessions are a loss of power. Everything in geopolitics is usually win-lose. Hence, when Trump removes a threat, it equates to a loss of power, at least to the geopolitical cognoscenti. His new allies in the Middle East – Saudi, Qatar, the UAE and Israel – are all very good at dealmaking in business. They get the idea that everyone must win, and anyone who refuses to play ball gets eliminated. It’s a win-win for the survivors and elimination for those who refuse to cooperate.
So, does the strike on the nuclear facilities necessarily mean this is the start of a ground war? No. In fact, quite the opposite is unfolding. Why? Because Trump is offering win-win incentives. Russia and China can both see that a deal over Ukraine and Taiwan is tantalizingly close. Will either trade away their prize - Ukraine for Russia and Taiwan for China - for the sake of Iran? No."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/irans-panopticon-prison-ai-gaz-a
2. This actually makes a lot of sense on what is happening in US weapon sales to rest of West & NATO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ue7-_byY7FU
3. "In stark contrast to the VC model, SBIR’s current model was carefully designed to fund large portfolios of projects that serve DoD’s research and innovation needs, not a limited portfolio of companies. SBIR invests at a very early stage in a vast range of technologies and companies, focusing on innovation rather than profit, ROI, or exits. SBIR takes no equity, acquires no board seats, and exerts little influence on the companies it funds. And SBIR funds heartland inventors and tech center innovators alike.
All this underscores a key point: commercialization is only one metric for judging the success of the SBIR program at DoD, and it is not the most important. What matters is delivering technology for DoD and warfighter.
The program’s primary goal is to extend DoD’s lead in R&D, solve problems, and to equip our warfighters with the best technology available to support our national defense. Here multiple award winners have played a key role, generating a higher rate of DoD sales (according to GAO), offering long-term support, and providing massively important technologies like Progeny Systems’ MK 54 close-in torpedo, now the standard for the U.S. Navy and many of our close allies. They win new contracts because they offer DoD the best available deal for what it needs, in an open marketplace of ideas."
4. "The amazing effectiveness of intelligence over brute force, of precise autonomous strike systems operating from behind enemy lines with tightly integrated intelligence should give us pause as we begin massive investments to put up our own ballistic missile defense system: the golden dome. While eliminating the threats from ballistic missiles is wonderful, we must also be vigilant about strikes from unmanned systems within our borders as well.
The Israelis took Operation Spiderweb and put it on Steroids. In addition to the drone and loitering munition operations, the also used insider intelligence gathered by double agents that gave them precise information about the Iranian command echelon’s movements to round up their targets. The irony was of course that many of these assets were kept around by the Iranians because they thought they had actually flipped them when they hadn’t."
https://bowoftheseus.substack.com/p/a-golden-dome-cant-protect-against
5. One of the best weekly shows and discussion on the B2B world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m60kE-VSOdw
6. Future of Military Affairs: Europe will be relying on the Ukrainian military industrial power.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbCPjbUqL1Y
7. "Many nations manufacture their own weapons and ammunition. But China suddenly became one of the foremost defence technology innovators. How?
The reason is doctrinal: the CCP has pioneered a principle called civil-military fusion. Everything, from AI research at Baidu to quantum computing labs at Tsinghua, is potentially dual-use. The boundary between civilian and military R&D is deliberately porous. Xi Jinping even created a commission to ensure its correct implementation.
That would feel very unusual in the West, where we instinctively separate defence and civilian innovation. But for China it’s a guiding principle. One which has transformed its entire tech ecosystem into a military supply chain."
https://www.resiliencemedia.co/p/how-did-china-come-to-lead-the-world
8. Always a great conversation on the latest tech and Silicon Valley news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WdW8Qgn-iU
9. Lots of cultural context and learnings on Japan, China and the West at large and how this will affect future geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_hBd8w-Hlm4
10. This was quite good. Discussion with the head of the Army Futures Unit. The future of war from the perspective of the US Army.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vw-k8xcELmE
11. One of the best business model tear downs ever, this one mainly on the Booking.com business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=573f5xX-bd8
12. "Since 1957 the share of Americans who are 65 and older has nearly doubled from 9% to 17%. At $1.5 trillion dollars, Social Security is the largest expenditure in the federal budget. U.S. seniors are the wealthiest cohort in history and the recipients of the largest redistribution in history. The program, which currently serves 69m Americans, is due to run out of money in eight years. Three trends are driving insolvency: more people reaching retirement age (good), people living longer into retirement (also good), and a decline in workforce participation (not good).
If/when Social Security becomes insolvent, America’s grandparents will likely put their retirement on their grandkids’ credit cards. The fix is straightforward, but politically fraught: Means-test benefits and raise the retirement age (exempting people in physically demanding professions). According to a CBO analysis, increasing the full retirement age by two months per birth year until it reaches age 70 for Americans born in 1978 or later would decrease total federal outlays by $122b through 2032.
Phasing out benefits for those with more than $150,000 of non-Social Security income would save an estimated $600b to $700b over a decade. We now spend $5 on seniors for every $1 on children. Enough already. Seniors who need Social Security should get it, but it shouldn’t mean an upgrade from Carnival to Crystal Cruises for NaNa and PopPop. At current rates, within a decade, we’ll spend half our federal budget on programs for seniors. (See above: The wealthiest generation in history.)"
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-grown-up-tax-bill/
13. "Unless you happen to be one of those sickos who gets their jollies from building B2B SaaS companies, this may seem like a snoozefest of a quote. Data data data blah blah blah.
However, this is incredibly important—it means that Slack owner Salesforce is trying to own all of your data. You can’t do anything with it. No company and no customer is allowed to touch it outside of the ways they see fit.
As with everything else these days, this is about AI. All of your applications will be doing this soon, whether it’s your favorite social media site or Microsoft Word. Slack is just the first one to act. Everyone should care about this story, whether you’re concerned about never being able to download your Slack data and use it for an internal tool or you’re more worried that you’re missing the boat on the next AI millions. Beyond that, this sort of business strategy will dictate how all of society functions tomorrow.
The next five years will be a furious storm of acquisitions, investments, and consolidation up and down the stack, where companies will be rapidly trying to corner key sources of data and workflows before an AI provider gets to it first."
https://www.gettheleverage.com/p/slack-declares-war
14. "This brings us back to my criticism of Israel in last week’s article. They did not set up the proper political environment before initiating their attack. For Israel, politics and international public support seem to be an afterthought. They seem to think they can overcome anything with might and wit alone. How naive.
Historically, even the mighty U.S. makes sure to gather a coalition and launch a proper propaganda campaign before engaging in any large military conflict. Israel is a small country with roughly the same population as New York City. They don’t have the size to operate the way they’re choosing to.
There are tons of reports that Iran still has enriched uranium stockpiles that were not hit by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. So far, the regime in Iran seems to be intact. Unless the Israelis have something new up their sleeves, this was a failure.
Why?
It’s a failure because in war, you don’t take half-measures against a determined adversary. Half-measures like this give Iran the chance to learn and get better. You don’t send your enemy back to the drawing board, you kill them. If you can’t do that, don’t start a war unless you have direct provocation.
Assuming the status quo holds, the Iranians have now experienced the full extent of Israel’s capabilities, and they’ll spend the next few years building back better.
Iran didn’t win this war, but Israel didn’t either."
https://www.globalhitman.com/p/israels-brilliance-and-failure
15. "The other vector in startups was geography.
Today, like it or not, capital is re-concentrating in the old capitals partially because of AI: San Francisco, London, Tel Aviv. Startups in non-central ecosystems are finding it that much harder to raise capital. From side conversations, there’s a growing sense that global GPs need to “earn the right” to go abroad again.
The irony (and certainly central to my day job at Fluent Ventures) some of the best startups are being built in emerging ecosystems—with less burn, less competition, and lower valuations."
https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/a-tale-of-two-cities-in-tech-rebranding
16. "For entrepreneurs, the recommendation is to search for shared prompts online in the context of the work being done. If you’re analyzing term sheets, go online and find example prompts that do a much more detailed analysis than just a basic prompt. If you’re analyzing a partnership agreement, use the shared prompt that will give you more valuable insights. The AI results are great, and with a more advanced prompt, they’ll be even better."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/06/28/use-advanced-prompts-for-more-ai-value/
17. The most original thinker in Silicon Valley, whether you like him or not, Peter Thiel is worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV7YgnPUxcU
18. This stood out to me.
“Japan cannot trust its two biggest partners...the People's Republic of China on the one hand...And then of course, the United States of America...And what has happened over the last five, six years is that basically both those partners...have become untrustworthy.”
“Everybody who's cool wants to move to Tokyo...there's growing evidence that you have a little bit of a brain drain to Japan, where the best and the brightest from around Asia and the United States of America actually are happy to take a pay cut...the quality of life and your purchasing power makes Tokyo, Kyoto, Fukuoka, very, very good places to live and work.”
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/unbelievably-rich-yet-dirt-cheap
19. One of the world's most interesting men in history. Aristotle Onassis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3R1iG3LrT2I
20. I enjoyed and learned more than I thought I would from this conversation with the Chainsmokers on DJ-ing, art, music and venture capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-aE0mkUWYM&t=1762s
21. "We’re still in the horseless carriage era of AI applications.
The breakthrough will come when software adapts to us instead of forcing us to adapt to it."
https://tomtunguz.com/my-own-ai-email-generator/
22. Not for me but an interesting investment idea.
"If you want to buy into the world's cheapest real estate, you have to look at Cuba.
Based on a statistic drawn up by NetCredit, in 2023 the median house in Cuba cost USD 40,000. This compares to prices in the Dominican Republic being 5x higher, and more expensive Caribbean locations costing 5-20x more.
How to get in on the act?
There is one forgotten stock listed on the London stock exchange that allows you to do that.
Introducing CEIBA Investments
CEIBA Investments (ISIN GG00BFMDJH11, UK:CBA) has a real estate portfolio in Cuba that is valued at USD 130m even during current market conditions. With 100% of its portfolio invested in Cuba, it's a pure play."
23. "Two key trends will drive the development of this next generation consumer device: 1) Hardware (chips, cameras, sensors, screens, optics, batteries, etc) will continue to get better, cheaper, and smaller, driven by Big Tech investment. 2) GenAI will simplify how users interact with these devices and unlock more powerful features.
A next generation AI-native hardware device (whether equipped with BCI or not) will certainly make its way to the national security community. I expect that DoD adoption of this new technology will follow a similar path as the smartphone. First, the smartphone proliferated throughout the consumer industry, then, several years later, DoD rolled out a hardened version of the device equipped with DoD-specific software like ATAK.4 Hopefully DoD will be able to adopt this next generation system more quickly than they adopted smartphones, which took several years to integrate throughout the Department.
A next-generation, AI-native consumer device holds significant potential for national security customers, offering hands-free operation via natural language or BCI, deep user context through integrated sensor data, and AI agents capable of executing tasks autonomously, enabling users to stay mission-focused and amplifying their operational effectiveness as a true force multiplier."
https://maggiegray.us/p/ai-native-hardware-the-next-strategic
24. "Ending old-age benefits for the childless would be a pretty dystopian policy. But in the long run, extreme population aging, coupled with slower productivity growth, will make it economically impossible for young people to support old people no matter what policies government enact.
And if desperate, last-ditch draconian measures fail, we will shrink and dwindle as a species.
The vitality and energy of young people will slowly vanish from the physical world, as the youth become tiny islands within a sea of the graying and old. Already I can feel this when I go to Japan; neighborhoods like Shibuya in Tokyo or Shinsaibashi in Osaka that felt bustling and alive with young people in the 2000s are now dominated by middle-aged and elderly people and tourists.
And as population itself shrinks, the built environment will become more and more empty; whole towns will vanish from the map, as humanity huddles together in a dwindling number of graying megacities. Our impact on the planet’s environment will finally be reduced — we will still send out legions of robots to cultivate food and mine minerals, but as our numbers decrease, our desire to cannibalize the planet will hit its limits.
But even as humanity shrinks in physical space, we will bind ourselves more tightly together in digital space."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-dawn-of-the-posthuman-age
25. "What makes drone warfare in the Russo-Ukraine War different is that this is a fight between two regular armies. It has been going on long enough to have encouraged innovation in technology and tactics. After the full-scale invasion of February 2022, large drones, essentially unmanned aircraft, such as the Turkish Bayraktar, made a mark until the Russians learned how to deal with them. They were full of expensive equipment yet vulnerable to enemy defences. As they faded away from the front-line there was a shift to smaller and ever more versatile drones that could be mass produced and were sufficiently cheap to be expendable.
Some drones can be used a number of times, often more for surveillance than attack, but most now are used only once. They can be configured for a variety of ranges, so that some can attack targets well to the rear. Support of front-line operations is now dominated by FPV (First Person View) Drones. These have a distinctive square shape, with a propeller at each corner, flying directly into targets, where they can detonate an explosive charge of up to 1.5 kg. Last year both sides produced about a million of these. This year both expect to produce three to four million."
https://samf.substack.com/p/are-drones-the-future-of-war
26. "Thesis drift is entirely psychological in nature. It is natural to want to avoid admitting to yourself that you were wrong or that you didn’t know what you were doing, as it conflicts with your self-image as someone who is smart or has good instincts. If you have made public pronouncements about your position, changing your mind threatens your external image as well.
If you don’t recognize thesis drift, you can get stuck in hell. Hell, in this context, is when you get stuck doing the same thing over and over and expect a different result. All you have to do to stay out of hell is to respond to the clear, unambiguous feedback you got when your initial thesis was falsified. That feedback is your lifeline! Once you sever that feedback loop, it’s easy to enter a tailspin, because there is nothing left that can pull you out of it. You just keep losing money on the same failed position with no end in sight. And what’s worse, when you are stuck in hell, you look like an insane person, doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results.
People expect investing to be a game of intellect, where you produce clever theories that you can turn into money. In reality, it is more of a psychological battle to keep your brain from sabotaging your portfolio."
https://www.md-a.co/p/thesis-drift
27. "Somewhere along the way, we got lost. We’ve turned what should have been the problem statement into an invitation to a pity party. The correct response to differentiation challenges isn’t “woe is me,” but “that’s why we get paid the big bucks.”
That’s our job. That’s what we do here: differentiate similar products in the minds of customers. See Positioning. No, it’s not easy. But the day you think differentiation is impossible is the day you should turn in your marketing gun and badge. Differentiation is always possible. If consumer packaged goods (CPG) marketers can differentiate rice or yogurt, then we can darn well differentiate enterprise software."
https://kellblog.com/2025/06/29/navigating-the-mythical-sea-of-sameness/
28. "Today I want to give the opposite perspective - that the app layer is a difficult place to make money and that infrastructure is the best place to invest right now.
The reason I’m so interested in AI infrastructure is because the underlying technology of AI is shifting rapidly. Use cases are changing. And I still expect a few technological discontinuities to come into play - like the rise of a non-transformer based model class. Some of these previous shifts in AI infrastructure leadership happened because the tools were optimized for technology like RNNs or CNNs and then LLMs became the driver of application development and new entrants were better positioned for that world.
I believe that is happening now, and will continue to happen for the next decade as AI development settles into a market equilibrium. There will be massive opportunities for AI infrastructure startups."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/why-i-disagree-with-sequoias-thesis
29. "While most people know him as the sardonic superhero Deadpool, Reynolds is also a wildly successful businessperson. Plenty of celebrities attach themselves to products. But Reynolds’ production company and marketing firm Maximum Effort is a viral content machine. He takes hefty stakes in seemingly disparate small companies, promotes them—and has them promote each other—with playful quick-turn ads he calls “fastvertising,” and then sells the businesses for millions.
He has invested in Aviation Gin, the discount telecommunications company Mint Mobile, Welsh soccer team Wrexham AFC, and the cybersecurity app 1Password—to name a few. The companies he co-owns or has sold are valued at over $14 billion, according to Forbes.
Reynolds has carried over his Hollywood playbook to the world of advertising: respect the audience’s intelligence and have a little fun. “Consumers know they’re being marketed to, so acknowledge it,” he says. Levy, who has made three movies with Reynolds, believes that Reynolds’ ability to create narratives for his businesses is his friend’s superpower. “He’s really identified a core component to entrepreneurial success,” Levy says. “And it connects back to our day jobs, which is storytelling.”
https://time.com/collections/time100-companies-2025/7289571/maximum-effort/
30. Old one but good one.
"This last week McGregor won his contest in a record 13 seconds. His opponent, Jose Aldo, had been the champion and unbeaten for 10 years. He was the empireand McGregor was the startup on his periphery. The startup won.
These were Conor McGregor quotes after the fight.
Precision beats power. Timing beats speed
When you see it, and you have the courage enough to speak it, it will happen
To the naked eye it was 13 seconds, but to my team and my family it has been a lifetime of work to get to that 13 seconds."
https://www.adamtownsend.me/startup-conor/
31. Controlling the straits of Hormuz. Chokepoints and geography matter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UZbuY9pPkw
32. If you are interested in defensetech & the future of warfare, this is an incredible interview with Ethan Thornton of Mach Industries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTfSIRg_kp0&t=6323s
33. "So if Japan pioneered reality TV, and still watches it today, why is it that modern Japanese reality TV is so inoffensive, while the American strain is so virulent? It’s tempting to argue that Japan’s more sedate broadcast entertainment is a reflection of a healthier society and America’s adversarial entertainment a reflection of a sicker one. That American entertainment is the product of an outrage economy, while Japan’s a product of what might be called a soothing economy. Which makes sense, because some of Japan’s top exports are designed to comfort, empower, and heal.
It’s particularly evident in publishing: the popularity of escapist isekai manga; the current boom for female authors like Yoko Ogawa and Mieko Kawakami; self-help hits likeThe Courage to be Disliked and Marie Kondo’s cleaning magic.
Those sweeping generalizations might have some basis in reality. But the current state of broadcast affairs in Japan isn’t due to some nationwide epiphany, or because the country is maturing, or because producers stopped making provocative shows out of the goodness of their hearts. It’s because of regulations."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/japanese-tv-vs-american-reality
34. Revolution in Military Affairs: Naval Advances.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Dy2Wd_ZNSA
35. "Private equity remains popular among allocators, but the fundamentals tell a sobering story. Portfolio companies are smaller, less profitable, slower growing, and more leveraged than their public peers. And that’s before considering that public comparables have far more flexibility in capital markets.
The bull case for PE used to hinge on financial engineering and multiple expansion. Today, with debt expensive and exit multiples compressing, the tools that fueled outperformance are turning into liabilities. As always, we return to the data—and the data continues to suggest that the private equity model is under increasing strain."
https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/2024-private-equity-fundamentals
36. "Path Three is not about getting better. It’s about seeing more clearly.
Path Three doesn’t upgrade you. It exposes the illusion of there being a “you” to upgrade.
It’s not about achieving anything at all. It’s about recognizing what’s already here, already true, already whole.
The problem is, Path Three has terrible PR.
Nobody gets rich on Path Three. There are no before-and-after photos. You don’t get abs. You don’t get closure. You don’t become a legend in your niche.
You don’t become anyone, really.
You notice, instead, that you were never the person you thought you were to begin with. That your life story was a story. That your inner voice was an improv narrator trying to explain the movie while it played.
You don’t transcend the human experience. You just stop taking it personally.
So why do it?
Because once you get even a glimpse of this third path, everything else gets lighter. The drama of Path One, the striving of Path Two — they keep their charm, but lose their weight. You can still play the game, but you stop looking at the scoreboard. You still feel pain, but suffering becomes optional."
https://sanjaysays.co/p/the-third-path
37. Probably one of the most savvy geopolitical guys around, he has made some pretty accurate predictions in the last few years. His take on recent Israeli and Iranian conflict & implications.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAeiNCGRSzk
38. "You already intuitively know all this. Again, because we all use social media these days. As a result, we’ve all developed the ability to discern what people vibe well (and what doesn’t) in this new order. We have the taste, but may not have the ability to actually create the content we want.
By default, marketing professionals create corpospeak. It jumps out particularly in email marketing, or on the about page of a website, or with a lot of conference content. Ironically, the more effort and the more people are involved in something, the worse it is. How do we get rid of corpospeak in our companies? How do we talk to people the way they want to be talked to? And why is this so hard?"
https://andrewchen.substack.com/p/corpospeak-why-you-still-sound-like