The Changing World Order: A View of the World from the Frontlines
Radigan Carter is a private investor who runs the Fortress virtual community that I am part of. He writes one of the best monthly newsletters and his day job is a military contractor working for the US State Department on the ground in the Middle East. He is a true thinker but also a literal operator on the frontlines of the world, seeing what is going on around us.
He describes the moment we are in so well, when we are in the midst of so much geopolitical and technological change, especially during the Israeli-American war against Iran in March.
“Turns out, while we have been risking our lives, our leaders were letting billions flow to Iran and ships slip through the blockade. Our leaders prioritized protecting markets over our lives in a war they started.
The lesson in this is leaders have one priority above all others, to ensure social stability so they don’t lose power. They will always try to find a way to do this. Doesn’t matter if they need to do a deal with the enemy to protect global markets while they put Americans at risk in a war they started. They will do it.
Going forward I will try to remember this lesson since more things we didn’t think would be possible will be done in the future. Rules and systems that we take for granted will be ignored, suspended, or changed if needed for politicians to try and find a way to maintain social stability. It makes no sense to look at what just happened with our lives being risked here while paying protection money to Iran; to say a land power seizing a global trade route and the maritime power of the day unable to stop it is a 500-year change, and then think that the system will stay the same as it is currently. That lacks imagination and does a disservice to protecting my family and capital.”
Reality is always harsh and painful. As I wrote many times, the global world order we know is changing, and it’s pretty clear your government and politicians don’t care about you. If you haven’t figured this out yet, not sure what will. I have thought deeply, as well as absorbed and learned the lesson from this.
As Radigan writes, reality helps bring clarity to your mission and how to position accordingly:
“Seeing our leaders protect markets over our lives, makes sense that more of the exceptional action Steil discusses could happen. Learning this lesson, I see my mission for protecting my family and capital as:
1) Realize our leaders will do whatever they need to maintain social stability.
2) Understand most people will support it. People will justify others losing if it means they do not.
3) Do not be in the way between leaders and maintaining social stability. That is where I lose.
4) Do not be mad about it, emotional decisions are bad decisions.
5) Adapt to win. My family depends on me to figure things out.
I still think the biggest winners from this conflict will be countries shifting from just-in-time economies to just-in-case economies. My goal is to not over-complicate it and just stand in the wind tunnel as governments dump $100 bills in one end and catch as many as possible in my butterfly net as they fly by, using periods of volatility to my advantage.”
I 100% agree with Radigan’s assessment. You don’t have to like it. I don’t like what I see happening around the world. There are no politicians or leaders in the world that are worthy of our trust and loyalty. But as I remind people, Focus on what you can control. Control the controllables. That’s all you can do. Face reality, take the hard lessons and adapt. Your family and community are relying on you.