Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Jan 18th, 2026
"Gratitude unlocks the fullness of life. It turns denial into acceptance, chaos to order, confusion to clarity." - Melody Beattie
"Bitcoin is the free-market weathervane of global fiat liquidity. It trades on the expectation of future fiat supply. Sometimes reality matches expectations, and other times it does not. Money is politics. And political rhetoric, which changes rapidly, influences the market’s expectations of future filthy fiat supply. One day our imperfect leaders call for cheaper money in larger quantities to pump the bags of their favorite constituents, other days they call for the opposite to fight inflation that destroys the plebes and their chances of re-election or a continuation of their autocratic rule. As with science, in trading it pays to have strong convictions loosely held.
For those of you with a multiyear outlook, these short-term lulls in the pace of fiat money creation don’t matter. If the Team Red Republicans cannot print enough money, the stock and bond market will crash, and that will give the holdouts from both parties’ religion to return to the satanic cult of money printing.
Trump is an astute politician and, similar to former US President Biden, who faced a similar revolt amongst the plebes over the COVID-stimulus induced inflation, will publicly change course and lambast the Fed for causing the inflation that afflicts the median voter. But don’t worry, Trump won’t forget the wealthy asset holders who fill the campaign coffers. Buffalo Bill Bessent will be under strict orders to print money in creative ways the plebes won’t understand."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/snow-forecast
2. "Hard sport builds the discipline to joyfully embrace hardship and pain. The child who masters his body against sloth, gluttony, and cowardice is well disposed to later master his spirit against lust, avarice, and corruption.
Children’s inheritance should be illiquid, and should take the form of land, enterprises, and art — objects with value other than abstract financial worth and which bring duties as well as privileges. The present owner knows he is merely a steward for the generations who follow, to whom he has a duty."
https://www.theculturist.io/p/why-did-wealth-stop-building-beautiful
3. "The Western alliance stands at a critical inflection point. For decades, America and Europe have held unmatched economic, industrial, and military resources, yet these capabilities are increasingly misaligned. Allied scale—the ability to convert collective mass into coordinated, actionable power—was the foundation of Western strength after World War II. It enabled NATO and the European project to transform a continent fractured by war into a US-sponsored platform for sustained leverage.
Today, however, that capacity is under strain. Rising global competition, internal dysfunction in Europe, and strategic missteps under Trump threaten to leave the West unable to act cohesively, even as China consolidates its own industrial and technological advantages.
Finally, it’s important to look to the future. Despite the challenges, Europe possesses latent industrial capacity and strategic potential that could restore allied scale if mobilised effectively. Defence buildouts, advanced manufacturing, and digital finance offer catalysts for revitalising transatlantic coordination, while selective American engagement could transform Europe’s structural weaknesses into opportunities for partnership.
Allied scale is less a measure of size or resources than a discipline of coordination, investment, and shared, long-term strategic vision. For Europe and America, mastering that discipline once again will determine whether the West can sustain its global influence and collective security in the decades ahead."
https://www.driftsignal.com/p/allied-scale-and-the-future-of-the
4. Lots to digest. Don't always agree with Balaji but he always makes me think, especially about where the world is going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFFXekSxe3U
5. Insights on the next era of entertainment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KG_nHmHUZLw
6. Investing in AI and what is happening with the AI arms race at company and global level.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9pZmpkw5EE
7. Some good takes on what is happening on the frontlines of AI from someone who has been on the cutting edge for a long time. Andrew Ng was in AI long before it was cool.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rT74mF6_NhQ
8. Wide ranging and deeply insightful. Balaji is a very smart man with some great takes on the future, backed by lots of data.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu8vthORgOo
9. A great discussion on the latest business news this week. NIA. Long term bullish on BTC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnlSPjzxVQU&t=15s
10. Latest state of the AI & VC market right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWkpLLH_8jQ&t=1s
11. A masterclass on finding talent and building product in the age of AI. Gokul is a legend in SV.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8GsB65WnGE
12. How do you survive and thrive in the Age of AI. This is worthwhile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwPNJLGWHEA
13. Global macro, US & USD is well positioned. The Office of Strategic Capital & reshoring supply chains and American reindustrialization makes one optimistic for this country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjL3jFHRgUU
14. The American Dynamism Fund, they got a pretty damn good portfolio. This was a great interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7SrvpieY7c
15. Latest and greatest news in Silicon Valley. Always good takes from these folks. (in many ways, way better than the All in Guys who do NOT represent the real Silicon Valley)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahZTkLfJTyk
16. "This is the Great Game of Risk in Category Creation & aggression wins.
But this era of fluidity won’t last forever. The rate of improvement in AI models will eventually attenuate. When the performance gap between the best model & the second-best model shrinks, the incentive to switch evaporates.
Switching costs will start to matter more than marginal performance gains. The custom tools I’ve built, the muscle memory I’ve developed, the integrations my company has deployed, the enterprise contracts signed, all inertia.
At that point, the fat begins to congeal.
The winners will be those who use the sizzling phase to build fat worth congealing around."
https://tomtunguz.com/the-bacon-and-the-skillet-when-ai-market-share-congeals/
17. Everyone in the roll up space should learn from Bending Spoon. Quiet giant from Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbwrpKbY5P0
18. "Prediction marketplaces say they aren’t on the other side of the trade — users are trading with their peers, not against the “house.” As traders buy and sell, prices fluctuate to reflect the “collective sentiment and knowledge of market participants.”
But whether you’re putting money on the Mets or Mamdani, this is gambling, and whatever you want to call it, users can develop an addiction. I am not immune. I find these markets fascinating — I tried to bet on the presidential race but couldn’t, as I’m an American citizen living in the U.K. My documented worker status saved me from myself: I was convinced Kamala Harris had a greater-than-37% likelihood of capturing the White House. And there is a solid argument we shouldn’t infantilize grown-ups — and we should let them spend their hard-earned money as they see fit.
In the U.S. we’ve monetized healthcare, the White House, and the pardon process. However, these are dwarfed by the opportunity to monetize the less developed prefrontal cortex of a young man. Once Polymarket starts expanding in the U.S., more Americans will be swept up by the wave. Not because everyone will be in Vegas, but because Vegas will be in everyone. If policymakers aren’t motivated by the threat to Americans’ finances and mental health, they should worry about the risk of foreign governments using the platforms to influence elections and public perception."
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-next-opioid-crisis/
19. "Japan is a nation steeped in ambiguity. There’s an old kotowaza proverb that goes, the clever hawk hides its talons. This is a country whose leaders were so famed for never clearly articulating what they really wanted that someone felt the need to write a book called The Japan That Can Say No.
Ambiguity is soft. It’s key to kawaii products: squishy, in-between, neither baby nor grown up, neither masculine nor feminine, an aesthetic that Japanese designers have mastered. Ambiguity in politics makes Japan seem safe and approachable. It is why so many Westerners see Japan as an oasis and want to visit. It’s also why anime fans can somehow see the same medium — and sometimes even the same series — as “woke” and “a safe haven from political correctness” at the very same time.
Ambiguity provides a blank slate upon which fans of different cultures and creeds can project their own values. You might see Japan’s traditional reluctance to take a public stand on divisive issues as deliberate or wishy-washy, but it is also the secret sauce of its soft power."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/boys-and-girls-be-ambiguous
20. Lots of learnings on startup leadership, a culture of learning and growth aka velocity. Really useful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zy2Uvm7_ky8&t=38s
21. We need more of the Harry Stebbings energy in Europe. Make Europe great again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltyWFh2cNXg
22. A cold look at geopolitics around the world right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W50lce_aOyw
23. "The anger isn’t about the goods. It’s about the breach of contract. The American Deal was that Effort ~ Security. Effort brought your Hope strike closer. But because the real poverty line is $140,000, effort no longer yields security or progress; it brings risk, exhaustion, and debt.
When you are drowning, and you see the lifeguard throw a life vest to the person treading water next to you—a person who isn’t swimming as hard as you are—you don’t feel happiness for them. You feel a homicidal rage at the lifeguard.
We have created a system where the only way to survive is to be destitute enough to qualify for aid, or rich enough to ignore the cost. Everyone in the middle is being cannibalized. The rich know this… and they are increasingly opting out of the shared spaces."
https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lie
24. "Bringing this to AI right now: I think we are somewhere close to the peak of inflated expectations. It’s impossible to time markets, and the ascent could go on longer than anyone expects. But sooner or later, I think we will encounter the inevitable trough of disillusionment.
The specific flaws this time, that I think will precipitate the trough, are 1) the thin margins, and 2) the minimal moats.
Regarding point 1) most are valuing AI as “software,” which is known for its high margins (usually 90%+) and because of those high margins software companies are valued at a higher multiple of revenue than most other businesses. It’s easier to generate profits from them, or recycle a large amount of that revenue to propel future growth.
But AI is low margin — at both the LLM and application layers — if not negative margin in many cases today. If you listen closely to the mainstream commentary about AI these days, there is almost zero discussion about profitability, now or in the future. People just assume it will be like other tech, where you burn a lot in the beginning and the profits will arrive later."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/what-investors-should-know-about
25. "The AI investment landscape is experiencing a fundamental shift. While large language models (LLMs) have captured headlines and billions in funding, a quieter revolution is underway—one that promises superior unit economics, deployability, and enterprise adoption. Small Language Models (SLMs) represent not just a technical evolution, but an inflection point for AI investors seeking sustainable, scalable returns.
The investment thesis is clear: SLMs represent a shift from capital-intensive infrastructure plays to capital-efficient software businesses with superior unit economics, expanding addressable markets, and defensible enterprise moats. The future of AI investing isn’t about bigger models—it’s about smarter deployment.
Building task specific SLMs is currently a challenge but those challenges are being resolved quickly by new tools and tactics (including our work at Neurometric.). SLMs can be cheaper, faster, and more accurate - a great combination if you are architecting an AI system. Investors should brush up on this new area as I suspect you will see lots of SLM opportunities in 2026."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/what-investors-should-know-about
26. "We don’t all know our lineage or our ancestors, but for those of us that do, we must honor those who came before us. We don’t have to do this for their status or wealth, but for their courage to persevere. John Howland began as an indentured servant but he rose to shape a new world.
So today, we salute this humble pilgrim, whose courage reminds us that every choice we make can carry forward through centuries. May we also live in such a way that when our descendants look back at our lives, they are inspired by our actions."
https://thewaysofagentleman.substack.com/p/the-man-who-fell-from-the-mayflower
27. Learning from the great conquerors, artists and businessmen of history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFmYF-20jbY
28. Demographics is destiny. Watch Japan, Germany and Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NuH3D4SN-c
29. Important global macro conversation on the risks of the Index investing & political grift and instability in America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIHrlAasIMk&t=1429s
30. "Saudi Arabia follows a different logic. It treats modernity not as a danger to be contained but as a strategic resource to be mastered. Scientific progress and technological adoption are viewed as national assets. This shift creates space for modern institutions to gain legitimacy and places religious identity within a broader civic framework. In Saudi history, that alone is a revolution.
I do not know MBS, I have never met him, and I cannot pretend to know what is in his mind. But it seems to me that he is betting on a specific direction. The course he sets on technology, investment, and cooperation with Western partners, combined with the kingdom’s position as guardian of Islam’s holiest sites, is meant to redefine the region’s political and religious landscape. He is positioning Saudi Arabia to determine what a modern Sunni Muslim power can be, and that choice will shape the region for decades.
MBS’ futurism, therefore, serves a real and significantly underestimated political function. The country’s wealth gives the state room to pursue large-scale transformation, the monarchical structure allows decisions to be imposed without the paralysis of coalition politics, and this very combination enables futurism to operate as a genuine strategy for reshaping institutions and national identity rather than merely as a slogan. Few leaders have stated this purpose as openly as MBS."
https://www.zinebriboua.com/p/mbs-the-saudi-revolution-and-saudi
31. "This is why I have become increasingly suspicious of the advice so often given to ambitious young professionals: “Be the smartest person in the room.”
It is not enough. In some cases, it can even be dangerous.
The more accurate and far more enduring aspiration is this: be the wisest person in the room.
Intelligence manipulates information; wisdom governs it. Intelligence can master complexity; wisdom discerns which complexity is worth mastering. Intelligence opens doors; wisdom knows which doors should not be opened at all.
And this distinction has only grown in urgency with recent technological developments. The blunt truth is this:
With the current trends in tech, knowledge by itself is a depreciating asset."
https://rondodson.substack.com/p/managerialism-wisdom-and-the-deep
32. "That wasn’t “the good old days.” That was yesterday.
The window is closing, and the systems deciding your mobility are getting stricter, not looser.
If you are an entrepreneur, a global citizen, or someone building a virtual company, you need to understand that the game has changed completely.
Same applies for anyone getting a second residency, a long-term visa, or a second passport, this is the new game: before you impress a government, you have to impress its algorithm.
You can’t outplay, out-charm, or outsmart an algorithm.
When you will be entering a new country soon, the question at the border will not be
“Do you have enough money, what is the purpose of your travel or if you have a return flight back?”
but “Is your money, your work, your travel plans and your digital footprint are good enough to let you enter the country?”
https://freedomceo.substack.com/p/why-future-of-travel-is-about-to
33. 2 Maniacs on a mission. Michael Ovitz & David Senra. Loyalty, energy and learning. Really inspiring.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhh-J0zVsik
34. The basics of personal finance but stuff most of us never learned until much later in life to our detriment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoE1GBC_u34
35. "my goal with today’s essay is to tackle how busyness isn’t merely a social condition but an intellectual and spiritual one. Busyness is a disease which joyfully and stealthily feasts upon the marrow of your vision, sipping your creative juices; then exploiting them to extinguish your inner fire, thus canceling your imagination."
https://vizi.substack.com/p/busy-people-lack-a-noble-mission
36. "None of those vignettes capture the full story of the person I believe will come to be seen as one of the most exceptional entrepreneurs of this generation, a gringo who started what has become the third largest telco in Medellín and decided, while growing that business, both within existing markets and to new ones, to start a second business building data centers attached to hydroelectric power plants (Colombia’s mountains produce incredibly cheap power; it’s transmission that’s the problem), and convinced two of America’s best venture firms to back them both, though, if it’s even possible to capture. I will certainly try my best.
And the best place to start, I think, is the first time I met Forrest Heath, III, for a thirty minute coffee that became a three-and-a-half hour whirlwind at Public Records in Brooklyn, at the end of which I agreed to commit the first slug of what I hope to be many tens of millions of American Dollars to the Cable Caballero with a master plan to build a vertically integrated infrastructure empire.
Somos is a vertically-integrated infrastructure company whose first product is internet in Medellín, Colombia.
It is not a traditional challenger Internet Service Provider (ISP). Most challenger ISPs are just wrappers on someone else’s infrastructure, basically marketing companies. They’re low CapEx, because they don’t build much, but low margin, because they have to pay to their infra providers and equipment suppliers. Crucially, they don’t make the internet fundamentally better or cheaper, because to do that, you have to rebuild the whole stack."
https://www.notboring.co/p/cable-caballero
37. A cold but realpolitik perspective on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the recent peace plan. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0qvJfstDNw
38. The saga of the Duttons continues. Can't wait for this series.