Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 9th, 2026
“Alas, summer sun can’t last forever. The days will grow cooler and shorter, and our skin will once again pale”– Sarah MacLean
This is a great discussion and framework for looking at the world. I don't agree with all her conclusions but it's a valuable lens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjtlOd2lbWU
2."It is not that the US is abandoning Taiwan. Nor is the American withdrawal of troops from Poland and Germany an abandonment of Europe. The message is not one of abandonment but of enticement. It is, “there’s a deal to be had IF China can become more like Taiwan,” and “there’s a deal to be had if Russia can stop lobbing advanced weapons systems at Ukraine,” and “there’s a deal for the IRGC if they can stop blocking the Strait and aiming missiles at nuclear power plants”.
The message is the same in each case. The old approach will now be more harshly punished, while embracing America will bring rich rewards. China can hardly argue against the offer. Their economy is substantially underperforming what it is capable of. Foreign Direct Investment has dried up. Yes, they have made immense technological advances, but the general population is increasingly agitated by the debt problem and the inability to find a job or to trust banks to return their savings.
Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai are fine, but the beneficiaries in smaller, secondary, and tertiary cities are far fewer. So, there’s no deal if China wants to crush Taiwan as they were seen to have done in Hong Kong. There’s a great deal if China becomes more like Taiwan. In the meantime, the US passes the night watch to Japan. They are closer and now extremely militarily capable. They’ll be guarding Taiwan like a temple dragon, meaning fiercely.
The same conversion dynamic has now unfolded in Venezuela. The U.S. has already agreed and implemented a comprehensive oil framework with interim President Delcy Rodríguez. Washington now controls all crude sales and revenue accounts, Venezuelan budgets are subject to a monthly U.S. audit, and funds must be spent on U.S. goods and services. More than 80 million barrels have already been delivered under these terms. Yesterday’s adversary has become a stakeholder who benefits from the new order. This is exactly the model Trump and Xi are applying on the global stage.
In case you are still wondering why now, let’s be reminded that both the US and China know we are living in an era of extraordinary scientific and technological advances that will allow us to cure diseases, extend longevity, grow food more easily, and achieve virtually free energy. We can also now harness the power of atomic energy to destroy humanity in a nuclear flash or to power a much brighter future with new TRISO-fueled nuclear power stations that bring no meltdown risks. China has already industrialized the mass production of such power plants. Huge progress is being made by both countries on nuclear fusion as well. The target date? July 4th, 2026, America’s 250th Anniversary. Trump wants to show the world that he has delivered (virtually) free energy to the world. That’s a whole new kind of fireworks. A Star in a Box, as I called it in a previous substack, is nuclear power in a container half the size of a car, powered by half a handful of TRISO pellets that can power 5000 homes almost indefinitely. This tech can be used to illuminate humanity's future or destroy Earth altogether. We can go light or go dark. So, it is now civilizationally essential that the superpowers agree that this kind of power will be used for peace and not for war."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-hug-and-the-circumpunct-us-china
3. "Future historians will likely have trouble gauging Xi’s skill. On the one hand, he’s a serious statesman. On the other hand, his opposite number is Donald Trump. Regardless, the Chinese see blood in the water, even if American leadership won’t acknowledge we appear to be committing superpower suicide. In January, a Beijing think tank published a report called “Thank Trump,” which concluded that tariffs, attacks on allies, anti-immigration policies, and the president’s war against American institutions have strengthened China while weakening the U.S. Citing polarization, government dysfunction, and “Latin American-style instability,” the report’s authors labeled Trump an “accelerator of American political decay.” A decade ago, our priority was to manage the Thucydides trap such that we maintained our leadership of the rules-based world order, avoided conflict, and increased global prosperity.
Today, we’re riding shotgun with a president who never met an American interest he didn’t seek to monetize. Superpowers don’t die when adversaries breach the gates. They die when the people inside start auctioning off the gates."
https://www.profgmedia.com/p/art-of-the-sellout
4. Good Silicon Valley discussions for the week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLjYWaT_Du4
5. My favorite weekly discussion on the latest B2B news in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z94zlbVn048&t=1051s
6."An entire generation of tech workers came up believing the apparatus they walked into was the bare minimum any reasonable employer would provide, when it was really just a recruiting offer that nobody ever bothered to take back once they’d hired you. We built daycares for adults.
You don’t learn agency in a place that never asks you to have any. And ownership is the same kind of problem, in that you can’t really learn how to do it when there’s always somebody else around to do it for you. You learn it the first time you realize nobody is going to push a notification to a billion users to make your problem go away. You’re the only person in the building who can actually fix what’s broken."
https://writing.nikunjk.com/p/the-coddling-of-the-tech-mind
7. "Anyway… There are several countries in Latin America that are primed for real economic booms because the populations within those countries may see incredible windfalls in the coming years.
This will mostly be happening because of rising commodity prices. These countries are rich with copper, lithium, zinc, and all of the minerals that are in demand for the build out of the global AI economy.
It helps that over 30% of gold and silver deposits are also found in Latin America.
Rising commodity prices will lift Latin American economies."
https://www.codyshirk.com/p/drugs-gangs-surf-now-time-for-investors
8."The thing standing between me and the life I wanted was a man running pessimistic models in his own head and calling it being realistic. Get him out of the way, and the world opens up. That’s not a metaphor. That’s actually what happens.
The realist thinks he’s avoiding the cost. He thinks by staying in the 95 he’s the one playing it safe, hedging properly, protecting himself from the downside. He looks at the optimistic delusionist and goes well, he’s going to crash and burn eventually. He’s going to learn the hard way. I’ll be the one standing when it all goes wrong.
The thing nobody tells you about the safe option is that it’s not actually safe. It’s just a slow version of the same loss. You don’t avoid the pain by avoiding the risk — you just spread it out so thin you stop noticing it. Twenty years of mild regret feels different to one moment of acute embarrassment, but it adds up to a lot more weight. And by the time you feel it properly, you’re too far in to do anything about it."
https://lifemaxxers.substack.com/p/optimistic-delusion
9."Is it time to start stacking nickels again?
If you think the world is going to need more energy, then yes…
What’s Nickel Used for Anyway?
We use nickel for pretty much everything.
It’s found in almost every type of metal that you touch everyday and is used in all types of industrial processes."
https://www.codyshirk.com/p/nickel-arbitrage
10."Despite the scale of their operations, few people have heard of the trading houses. This is deliberate. The trading houses are mostly private opaque companies based in Switzerland and do not want their operations scrutinized. The story of how a group of obscure companies came to play such an outsized role in the functioning of the global energy system dates back to the aftermath of World War II when the great powers became locked in a secret war for control of the world’s natural resources."
https://arenamag.com/articles/black-gold-and-grey-markets
11."SpaceX targets a $1.75 trillion valuation at IPO on June 12, 2026, making it one of the five most valuable companies globally. The S-1 reveals the tremendous scale & nearly limitless ambition of a modern AI conglomerate."
https://tomtunguz.com/spacex-s1-analysis/
12."From space lasers to nuclear EMPs, GPS spoofing, and the rise of commercial space superpowers, the Bond franchise’s “goofy” space plots has proven remarkably prescient. The weapons 007’s villains wielded are now the focus of actual military programs and international concern. We may not have laser-rifle battles in orbit yet, but the space battlefield Fleming imagined is very much becoming reality."
https://arenamag.com/articles/the-man-with-the-golden-satellite
13. "The optimization should always be for the most DURABLE profit dollars generated as QUICKLY as possible with the LEAST about of capital required.
High gross margin (%) is just a proxy for doing that well, but focusing just on that will cause one to miss great opportunities."
https://substack.com/home/post/p-198840308
14."But deep tech is not just “harder software.” It is a different game, and founders and investors who understand its rules early will have a real advantage. Companies that remove physical bottlenecks will not be built, financed, or evaluated like software companies, and the key differences show up in three layers:
People and path dependence
Risk and reversibility
Capital and value creation
While many of the constraints below make it harder to start, those same constraints make the winners more defensible, better financed, more valuable, and harder to copy.
The best deep tech companies will not look like software companies with slower sales cycles. They will have different markers of quality: exceptional founder-market fit, clear technical inflection points, urgent customer demand, and the ability to turn manufacturing, regulation, performance, and supply chains into durable moats.
The key is that deep tech is not just harder. The difficulty is part of the opportunity. Scarce talent, regulatory friction, manufacturing complexity, technical risk, and slower iteration are real obstacles, but they also keep casual competitors out and give the winners a chance to become structurally important companies. When a company solves a hard physical bottleneck, it does not just capture demand; it can reshape an entire industry around itself."
https://www.codingvc.com/p/deep-tech-companies-are-built-different
15.Pretty geopolitically naive and ignorant as always but the discussion on SpaceX was worth it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGbA6ze0_3M
16.Always an inspiring and educational discussion about technology and geopolitics. Palmer Luckey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--Ef5Q-3Iq8
17.A good take on AI investing in 2026. Was surprisingly insightful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3HGhlV6dD0&t=2s
18.2026 is going to be scary and wild due to drone warfare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IVtLIeZwkc
19.The asymmetric edge and divergent results of technology. Makes me optimistic for America despite the dysfunction in this country.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyhNOoXevY4
20."If you’re targeting the lower end of the K-shape are people going to stop eating? Will they stop general hygiene? Will they kill their internet connection? Will they eat out a ton? The answer to all of this is no.
You can do the same to the luxury. Are they going to spend less money on their kids education and their pets vet bills? Will they buy status goods to showcase where they are in society? Are they going to pay up for safety, speed and comfort? The answer to all of this is yes.
We don’t really care which side of the K-shape economy you target. As long as you’re not making excuses and relying 100% on a W-2, we’re square with your preference. Both will make money. Just don’t delude yourself into believing they are the same market.
If you go into the bottom of the K, you can’t switch to the top of the K. Similarly if you target the top of the K, it’s hard to go after the bottom of the K since your margins would get killed along with the name brand recognition."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/spacex-and-how-to-benefit-from-the
21."If you want deep seated confidence that is drilled down all the way to your subconscious, the only way you will ever achieve this is through action.
Men are creatures of action. Not of manifestation. Not of words of affirmation. And not of visualization.
No one on the planet has ever achieved their full potential dreaming about a life they wish to live from the comfort of their couch.
So instead of faking it until you make it, stack relentless action."
https://www.lethalgentleman.com/p/how-to-build-real-confidence
22."As usual, there is no point in evading taxes. You should always pay them, just pay what you owe legally and use the rules intelligently.
You do not owe anyone additional money for being inefficient. Do things correct and you’ll find that your real tax burden goes down a cliff if you are a business owner/equity owner vs. W-2 employee.
There are a lot more complicated items to go over but this is good enough.
If you have questions on this we’re always around on the paid side. None of this is legal or financial advice, DYOR and we’re confident you’ll find what you’re looking for.
Ain’t no one rich worried about inheritance taxes or income taxes. It’s all wealth, capital gains, deductions and debt. By the book."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/basic-tax-saving-strategies-as-you
23."It is very easy to imagine all kinds of ways we might subvert new technology to empower a lone individual, but these are all fictions so far. We should not ignore these fictions; in fact we should work hard as a society to make sure they don’t happen. But we also should not fall under the spell of the lone villain myth. The evidence so far is that they have no superpowers."
https://kevinkelly.substack.com/p/myth-of-the-lone-villain
24."Like countless other supply chains, the sulfur industry has been disrupted by the war in Iran, as Middle Eastern refineries are heavily involved in the trade. The situation has been compounded by an unexpected and highly protectionist move by China, as well as Ukraine’s relentless attacks on Russia’s refinery network. These developments are significant, and the Twitterverse is awash in chatbot-generated catastrophizing, with predictions that global food and metal production are imperiled, and famine and factory closings are sure to follow.
Is this panic justified? Has a smelly byproduct that could hardly be given away suddenly become irreplaceable?"
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/something-stinks
25."Our leaders, in the US, in China, in Russia, in Korea, in Cuba, in Iran, and everywhere else are still human beings. They are disinclined to bring humanity to an end. They are inclined to find a place in history for good reasons. You may not like them or any one of them but heartware seems to be playing a role in bringing us back from the brink of annihilation.
Each is facing or being forced to face the new realities: annihilation or abundance. All will choose abundance ultimately. The only question is what everybody’s price is. We’re in a bidding war for protection money at this point. The IRGC wants protection post-Iran's reentry into the world economy. Cuba’s leaders do too, though they have less negotiating power now.
The hardest nut to crack here, the Gordian knot of geopolitics, remains the war in Ukraine. When I look at the war in Ukraine, I see symbols and gestures that most are missing. Most do not recognize that Ukraine is a center stone. It is the ultimate crucible where we will either emerge, free from conflict, transformed and ready to leap into an abundance economy together, or where all will be lost. It is the darkest node of geopolitics and the ultimate crucible.
We need to understand why and how Russians and Ukrainians think about this. My bet is that this conflict ends in one of two ways: a hug or an Armistice. Either way, it ends. We might end teh Armistice in Korea but begin a new one in Ukraine. Either way, a Peace Dividend is forming, but it may come in the form of signals we might miss, like a football being thrown across a war zone or a meeting of leaders at a Temple."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-hug-manifests
26."Visiting Harmattan’s new factory last week, the same logic came up unprompted: production remains mostly manual today because designs are still changing too fast to justify locking in automated tooling. The moment you automate a specific assembly step, you’ve made it rigid. In a product still evolving, rigidity costs more than it saves.
The Ukrainian shops I visited operate under a more extreme version of the same constraints. Output runs around 300 units a month per shop, assembled entirely by hand. But there is an additional variable that does not apply in the Western world: the factories move. Ukrainian drone producers operate across dispersed, constantly rotating sites because fixed facilities are targets for Shahed strikes.
The production model has to be light enough to relocate on short notice - no heavy tooling, no fixed infrastructure, nothing that cannot be packed and moved. The reason it works at volume under those conditions is the same reason the model has to be mobile: the design is simple enough that humans can assemble it anywhere.
The automation question, in other words, is largely answered before anyone steps onto the factory floor. Assembly can stay human-heavy and still reach volume, provided the design decisions have been made correctly upstream."
https://defensebrief.substack.com/p/the-factory-floor-nobody-imagined
27.Some interesting takes from Doomberg. Don't always agree with everything but it's worth getting different views.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bByr29QHG4I&t=5s
28.Rise of Neo-Primes, Geopolitics and the difference between Democracy vs Dictatorships.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-HmjiXKlvg
29.One of the best discussions on the defense industry but with a public market perspective. This was incredibly insightful on why the defense space is so complicated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VElWGgso2FY&t=592s
30.A crash course on history of trade and logistics and the implications for the future. This was fascinating especially for me as a history guy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlHd3-0eXOA
31."Right now there is still no real place to put money beyond big tech and luxury RE. Unless you’re saving up for something major (house, new car etc.) then the move is basically the same: Luxury RE (notable increase in risk) —> VOO, QQQ, SMH/GRID, Nuclear. Those are ***roughly*** ordered in how much risk you’re taking.
We’re a bit overdue for a quick update on housing as well but directionally it's still playing out. Median isn’t doing great due to high rate and the luxury market seems to get more luxury every 3 months."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/some-adjustments-crypto-and-wealth
32.My regular dose of painful reality from Doomberg.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vAXXMT4cko&t=631s
33."Recent global conflicts, from Russia and Ukraine to Iran and Israel, have seen a resurgent awareness of the frailty of US munitions stock, which has been drawn down by both direct and indirect involvement in these events. While exact stockpile volumes are not disclosed, it is estimated that supplies of US warheads and the missiles that carry them have declined by nearly an order of magnitude since their peak during the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Analysts have estimated that in the event of a conflict in the Pacific between China and Taiwan, US munitions supplies could be depleted in as few as three days, with some higher-tier terminal-phase missile supplies potentially depleted in the first 24 hours of conflict."
https://substack.com/home/post/p-199361654
34.As always, a fun and educational episode on recent business news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCjPU7fcBHs
35."Add it up: around $50M for a modern, vertically-integrated, software-driven contract-MFG hub in 2026. Jim started with six-packs of beer and one $700K laser. In seven years the barrier to entry moved two orders of magnitude (and that’s not inflation, it’s a different product entirely).
That’s the real comp for the operators reading this. Next time you see a “SendCutSend for [X]” pitch (for injection molding, for PCBA, for composites), $50M is the price of table stakes for a true vertically-integrated hub. Anything claiming to build one for $5M is quoting you a job shop and calling it a factory.
Belosic, Chamberlain, Sessa, Hengsperger, Liu are proving the operator side on American soil. Decade of pain, priced. The venture stack is finally following, even if the debt market underneath the median shop still isn’t.
The talent magnet is the second half, and it’s working too. Chris Power, every foreign-born floor lead at every robotics startup in the country, every immigrant founder in 46% of the Fortune 500. That’s the American asymmetric weapon, and China cannot replicate it.
What we’re getting wrong is the policy collision. $100K on the H-1B, a wage-weighted lottery, no STEM-PhD pathway, no skilled-trades carve-out. We’re filing down the one structural advantage that makes the rest of the reshoring math work.
We are not building Shenzhen. We never will. Shenzhen was built on a form of national hunger we don't have and shouldn't want (and shouldn't want it back, frankly). What we have is something different, and on the right time horizon, something better: a culture that turns the world's most ambitious 22-year-olds into American founders, American shop owners, American floor leads, faster and at higher volume than any other country has ever managed."
https://constiv.substack.com/p/the-hopium-moat-vs-magnet
36."In this era of sameness, narrative matters far more than it used to. You can hear when a founder has been deeper than they’re letting on. Faked secrets fall apart inside four follow-up questions. You can hear the script underneath. Your viral launch video won’t save you there. The real ones get weirder and more specific the deeper you push. The best ones paint trillion-dollar visions and walk you through the exact steps to get there. You really can’t shortcut your way to it.
The best pitches don’t end when the meeting does. They have you thinking about it at dinner with your family, still working out why his second customer mattered more than his first and how those two together create the network effect.
Before your next pitch, remember: stories create the frame. Logic fills in the colors."
https://writing.nikunjk.com/p/share-your-obsession-304
37. A good summary of the Gulf State militaries and their deficiencies. But it's changing fast cuz they got cash.