Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zone show
I really enjoyed the Netflix documentary series as author Dan Buettner takes us on a tour of the Blue zones around the world like rural Okinawa, Sardinia, Ikaria Greece, Costa Rica, even Loma Linda in California among other places. Blue zones are defined as places where many people are able to live past 100 years of age.
Yes, some of these blue zones have been discredited due to some of the long lives recorded being seen as fraud by relatives collecting the pensions of the deceased (my guess is specifically in Italy and Greece). Still plenty of stuff to learn here regardless.
In Buettner’s words:
“Remarkably they all share the same common denominators. They all follow the same formula that produces the longest-lived people on the planet. These people live to 100 at the highest rates in the world. They’re living vibrant, active, happy lives, and perhaps the biggest take away is they live longer without trying. And their secrets could help every single one of us to get every good year we can get out of this body of ours.”
Some things I learned is that diet really matters. In Okinawa, they have more purple sweet potatoes in their diet because they are rich in carbs (good ones), fiber and plenty of antioxidants, more than blueberries (Blueberries are awesome btw & you should eat more of them). They have lots of legumes which are supposedly quite good for the body. Beans and legumes are good sources of a wide variety of fiber which keep inflammation in check and also good for your immune system.
If you like bread like I do, then have sourdough which is better for you. Carbohydrates are fine if they are prepared right. Basically eat more beans, legumes, nuts, vegetables and fruits. Also use local grown (not store bought) raw honey for sweeteners instead of sugar.
Also Okinawan tofu is special because it has a higher concentration of good fat and protein compared to tofu elsewhere. Smaller diets a day of 2000 calories versus say 4000 calories in the USA because their foods are nutritionally dense unlike the crap we have. And they only eat to 80% full, so they aren’t totally stuffed. I should follow this but I love food too much.
The other key piece is that they are active. Strong core bodies, lower bodies and strong balance. They do gardening which keeps them busy. 1-2 hours a day of low intensity activity with a wide range of motion. Basic exercise. In Sardinia they correlated longevity to steepness of the villages of the blue zones. Basically, people walk everywhere and have active lives. They exercise regularly without knowing they are exercising.
Building muscle mass when you are younger helps with everything in your health. Have you noticed how fit and clear minded both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sly Stallone are at 77 and 78 respectively.
Community also seems to matter. In Okinawa, there is the Moai where a bunch of people pool their money together so if something happens, there is cash to help them. But it turns into a community of friends who help each other. They sing, they dance together and talk over tea regularly. This phenomenon is the same in Greece and Sardinia where older people know everyone in their community. There are no retirement homes there and centenarians are respected for their wisdom, taken care of and surrounded by their family and extended family. As 101 year old Umeta-san said: “Laughter brings longevity.”
This is in contrast to the US or Canada where there is a loneliness epidemic. Human connection is important. This was what wrecked so many of us in 2020. Unfortunately many people did not come out of that isolation from the covid pandemic lockdowns until this last year. And it shows. People are not surprisingly very weird and angry these days, we see it in everyday life and especially online.
And according to Dan Buettner, “loneliness can cost up to 15 years of life expectancy. Think about that. 15 years! There is no pill, no supplement, no blockbuster drug that could give us anywhere near 15 years.” So make some friends and get out there. Even for an introvert like me as much as I enjoy my books, podcasts and internet time, in 2020 isolation, it was only through the regular bi-weekly calls with my masterminds and crew, and that trip to Georgia that kept me sane.
After going through terrible situations in World War 2, many of them understand how valuable life is. And they don’t take it for granted unlike the spoiled and entitled people in the West. I liked how Okinawans lived with purpose. They have a very clear WHY. Ikigai: which in the show is defined as “a kind of mission. A sense of purpose. I think Ikigai is the main factor of the spiritual health of centenarians. If we lose ikigai, we will die.”
Apparently Okinawans do not have a word for retirement. They never stop working. Work is purpose and a puzzle. It keeps your mind engaged and active. This is why I’m lucky to stumble upon investing. It’s something I can keep doing for a long time. It is something I’ll do till the end of my life if I can. Something I’ve said many times. Or for the Adventists at Loma Linda as part of their religion, they volunteer. “Volunteering is a very counterintuitive route to health, but we know people who volunteer have better memories, better social connections. They even report higher levels of happiness. If you think, it always involves some physical activity, involves some sense of meaning because you’re focusing on somebody else other than just yourself.”
So many great lessons to improve your life and life longevity. It’s not just about living longer but living well.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads February 2nd, 2025
"Winter is nature's sleep" by H. S. Jacobs
"Japanese CEOs begin to step out of their comfort zone and start to buy start-ups for future growth rather than just reply on inhouse R&D teams. One reason for US corporate dynamism is the aggressive use of `outside` innovation to supplement or improve or disrupt `inside` businesses – 90% of US start-up exists are acquisitions (while 90% of Japan start-up exits are IPOs).
Mark my words: Japan’s new generation of CEOs are taking risks, are ready to challenge the complacent business-as-usual mentality of their inside executive teams by looking outside. Japan’s next-Gen business leaders are keen to create a positive legacy, are not afraid to try and make 1+1 = 3 or 4."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-surprises-2025
2. This movie looks good. Done by ex-Royal Marine Commandos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvPf33bS0g8
3. Incredible write up on the amazing city and scene that is Austin, Texas.
"People don’t really move to Texas for glitz and glamor.
As Justin Murphy once said to me, people historically moved to California in search of a fortune. This goes all the way back to the gold rush. But people moved to Texas for freedom. They wanted land and a free-living, don’t-tread-on-me lifestyle. These patterns persist today. People don’t come to Austin if accumulating wealth is their top priority. The people I know in San Francisco want money, the people I know in Los Angeles want fame, and the people I know in Texas want liberty and self-reliance (maybe that’s why so many dudes here are hardcore preppers who take jiu-jitsu lessons).
The anti-government bent may also be why there are fewer cops here. Growing up in San Francisco, we were always worried about parking tickets, speed traps, and red light cameras. But it seems like there aren’t as many police officers in Austin, and therefore, not as much law enforcement on the roads.
Locals embody the mindset of a Texas rancher. When you work on a farm, you’re constrained by the limits of nature, such as the biology of your cattle and the physics of agriculture. Against the stereotype, Ranchers are some of the most curious people I’ve met down here. Eager to improve their yields, they balance a belief in progress with a hearty respect for proven methods. Like Austinites, they’re eager to experiment with new tactics, but ground their thinking in the wisdom of previous generations.
Austin’s laptop class is different from San Francisco’s too. For starters, it’s cool to be ambitious in Austin but uncool to be too ambitious. The grindset is frowned upon. Some of the coffee shops don’t allow computers on Sundays, and people will scoff at you for skipping weekend social events to work. Austin entrepreneurs also care more about profit than growth. The people I know aren’t in a rush to build their company. They have a life to live and an income-to-effort ratio to maintain. Slow, steady, and sustainable is the name of the game (which makes it a tough place to be a venture capitalist).
The most successful people I know are understated because it’s not cool to flaunt your wealth here. That said, a trusted friend insists that almost 100 billionaires will move here in the next decade, and these days, I’m seeing more and more private jets at the airport. Though they’ll call Austin their home base, they’ll leave town for the summers, just as snowbirds on the East Coast migrate to Florida in the winter.
Being in Austin lowers my ambitions. The city doesn’t inspire me to be great like San Francisco or New York. But what I lose in ambition, I gain in focus. The city’s relative slowness makes it easy to focus.
With all the big shakers coming to town, the level of ambition is going to rise, though it won’t reach the levels of San Francisco and New York."
https://perell.com/essay/whats-up-with-austin/
4. The end of global shipping? Will be watching this closely but signs point to the decline of shipping and the rise of de-globalization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfI1BQo0ZzE
5. "If you explore his filmography, it’s hard to necessarily pin down a cohesive through line. In a tight five-year window, McAvoy followed up his performance in The Last King of Scotland (2006) with Atonement (2007), Gnomeo & Juliet (2011), and X-Men: First-Class (2011). The first film has been lauded as one of the best of his career. Gnomeo & Juliet was a smashing success in offering Shakespeare to children through a comedic lens (as evidenced by its $200-million worldwide profit on a $36-million budget). And X-Men: First-Class helped pave the way for a superhero genre in desperate need of emotional weight.
Perhaps the only commonality between the three films is that they offered McAvoy what he sought out when he signed on for Speak No Evil: a decisive pivot from what audiences had come to expect from him. It’s not that he was strategically avoiding being typecast. Rather, he simply gravitated towards whichever project allowed him to unearth new elements as an actor. The result has been an eclectic body of work that reflects his own meandering curiosity."
https://sharpmagazine.com/2024/10/02/james-mcavoy-interview-speak-no-evil-2024/
6. "Did I change my mind from my last essay? Kinda. Maybe the Trump dump occurred from mid-Dec until the 2024 year-end instead of mid-Jan 2025. Does that mean I’m sometimes a shitty prognosticator of the future? Yep, but at least I ingest new information and opinions and change them before they result in significant losses or missed opportunities.
That is why this game of investing is intellectually engaging. Imagine you made a hole-in-one every time you hit a golf ball, sunk every three-point shot taken in basketball or off the break, and always pocketed every ball playing billiards. Life would be excruciatingly dull."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/sasa
7. Sober conversation on reality and realignment of maritime shipping from an expert here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nBqm_iXDdA
8. "As I step into 2025, I feel the weight of 2024 behind me, less like a burden and more like the imprint of a journey that’s changed me. The year wasn’t kind, but it was honest, relentless in its demands, and strangely generous in its lessons. If 2024 were a storm, it wasn’t just the kind that passes, it was the kind that reshapes the landscape, leaving behind a different terrain, unfamiliar but somehow right.
There’s something about facing a year like that. It strips away illusions. You can’t outrun your own accountability. Whatever happened, every stumble, every triumph, it carries your signature. Blame, I’ve learned, is just procrastination in disguise. And procrastination is a thief, stealing the clarity that comes from admitting, This was mine to carry. This is mine to fix."
https://2lr.substack.com/p/hello-2025-nice-to-meet-you
9. Valuable conversation on global macro and where the world is going. Important. Buy Gold. #geopolitics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPG9qxXdwlY
10. Good to understand as we start 2025. Massive impacts for economies and politics around the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U509hHthip8
11. It's gonna be a rough next 4 years around the world. Geopolitical survey.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYSqV105B2U
12. Why is Greenland strategically important. Chokepoint to the arctic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtGh1kFqIoc
13. Sober assessment of what is happening with the Russo-Ukrainian war and possible settlement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcuGEX9yatk
14. "A stable Ukrainian deterrence posture is meaningless if it fails to achieve its primary purpose: deterring future Russian aggression.
Stability cannot, therefore, be seen as an end in itself. This does not mean Ukraine should be pushed into recklessness, but the right solution clearly lies somewhere in between. Proposed deterrence strategies that argue explicitly for stability at the expense of other factors are conceptually too one-dimensional to meet this demand and are likely unhelpful. As Thomas Schelling famously and correctly argued, there is stability in instability."
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/how-to-enable-and-effective-future
15. "This is the next crisis in Europe, already, the next Eurozone crisis.
And if, as Kagan argues, that a Ukrainian collapse would be a catastrophic defeat for Trump, how would he respond? Therein I have no doubt that he would in fact send US troops to occupy Greenland and/or the Panama Canal, using gunboat diplomacy to detract from his own, obvious and enormous failings.
One obvious solution for Europe is to boost cooperation with the other great European military power - Türkiye. Türkiye has the largest military in NATO, after the U.S., and a now substantial and rapidly improving military industrial complex.
In drone technology, thru Baykar, et al, Türkiye has the technological lead in Europe - with its prowess demonstrated in recent conflicts in Nagorny Karabakh, Ukraine and Syria. The UK, and Europe need to wake up and boost cooperation with Türkiye, and within Europe, or face defeat by Moscow. The situation is that serious and stark now."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/europe-should-be-scared
16. "I used to advise founders that the safest path was to raise money from a fund where the person sponsoring your deal was either the firm's founder or the most senior person actively making new investments, as those folks were the most likely to be there for the long term. In this environment, I’m not sure that advice is as useful as it once was."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/four-reasons-people-leave-venture
17. "These startups raised over-inflated Pre-Seed rounds — typically $3 - 5M or more — in buzzy areas that are now out-of-vogue. To the founders’ credit, many of them drastically cut burn when interest rates shifted, allowing them to ensure 36 months of runway or more. Sounds ideal, right? But what we’re seeing with many of these companies is something quite different.
As time passed, the early enthusiasm of many of these companies was replaced with listlessness. Their early employees moved on, their investors disengaged and, without any pressing existential threat, motivation or external oversight, they simply continue to exist (many with effectively infinite runway). Almost every VC that was active in 2021-22 has multiple such companies in their portfolio.
The outliers will continue to make progress and a few may ultimately see success. Some of the founders will eventually decide to shutter their company and potentially return some amount of capital to investors in order to move on. But the rest of these companies — with no real product, limited forward progress and no staff to be “aqui-hired” — will be a new species of startup walking dead."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/things-i-think-i-think-q4-2024
18. A more optimistic assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Hope he is right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3XK5a5ZV9g
19. How American imperialism works, very different than European ones. A geographical perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=At74k92vS10
20. Always a great episode. What's up in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZjrFiLgCCc&t=860s
21. "Because when you relinquish all visibility, responsibility, and accountability of your own or your family's finances to someone else, whether it’s your partner, spouse, attorney, or accountant, you are placing a heck of a lot of trust elsewhere that your personal wealth and legacy are being managed accordingly.
So, please, please, man or woman, I encourage you to communicate, question, ask, and discuss everything: trusts (revocable/irrevocable), wills, titles, deeds, lease agreements, retirement accounts, businesses, business holdings, and checking and savings accounts."
https://shindy.substack.com/p/trappings-wealth
22. "While the aesthetics of the era were superb, so were the opportunities for adventure for those who couldn’t or wouldn’t spend their days on horseback. In an era without the instant communication of the telegraph or phone, sail-power rather than steam-power, and Western military equipment being without par, adventurers could travel the globe and reap great fortunes.
Courtney Selous and Cecil Rhodes tromped across southern Africa and settled it, building communities in Rhodesia and South Africa that lasted until Cold War America, Britain, and the communist bloc destroyed them. Sir James Brooke, tired of country house life, traveled to Borneo and conquered the local pirates, becoming a local ruler known as the “White Rajah” and ruling for decades. In America, similarly, Tennesseean gentleman William Walker grew tired of city life and conquered Nicaragua. A few years later, South Carolina gentleman Wade Hampton III was able to, out of his landed revenue and the wealth of similar magnates, raise the Hampton Legion to fight in the War Between the States.
It was, in short, an era with great men and without much bureaucracy. The countryside was dotted with beautiful homes and governed by ancient traditions. The towns and villages were built up and invested in by local magnates, not local committees and bureaucratic petty tyrants, as is now the case, and those with a sense of adventure could go abroad and attempt to do as they pleased without worrying about the finger-wagging of an HR harridan chasing them around the world."
https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/the-death-of-the-gentleman-and-the
23. African century is turning into one of chaos and war. Sad and all due to weakness in the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdwlfo_wfEI
24. Geopolitical risks for 2025, areas to watch in the rest of year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmg__GDkFTc&t=464s
25. Japan is rapidly re-arming and rightfully as they face threats from China, North Korea & Russia.
Peace is great but pacifists there have not realized how dangerous the world has become in the last few years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZknEU38CDtE&t=15s
26. Lots of young people from China moving to Thailand. It's the super wealthy who move to Singapore, Australia, Canada. So it’s the Chinese in Thailand that are the gauge of what is really happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIDsvIQ0UvM
27. "It is notable that Japan’s home-grown semiconductor leaders have fared far better than Kioxia over the past decade or so. Whether at Rapidus, the TSMC plant in Kyushu or at Renesas, the “home team”‘has shown that Japanese engineering talent coupled with sustained capital investment and foreign engineering (as opposed to financial) talent can succeed in the critical task of rebuilding our collective techno-industrial base. As Germany's failures have shown, this is not a simple task.
Japan can only hope that the incoming Trump administration takes time to read Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio's latest book, Decades of Decadence. If Mr. Trump is serious about reinvigorating America's industrial base, strengthening its alliances with like-minded partners, and supporting middle-class jobs rather than those of financial elites whose vested interests are often aligned with our adversaries, then he will reverse the Biden decision at Nippon Steel and limit the damage that financial engineers can inflict on our common prosperity."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/guest-contribution-barbarians-at
28. Very impressive megacity: Chongqing in China. Spectacular place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p49QRxO_n2c
29. The best takes on technology and Silicon Valley from two of the best investors in the business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPD1qEbeyac
30. More on Chongqing, 36M population mega city in China. I do have a problem with this guy's complete & decided blindness to politics (and probably getting paid by CCP to film in Xinjiang).
Still fascinating city overview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNR9QjmhH00
31. Fascinated by this city.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=celhrcTI938
32. "Well, sorry guys, but VCs don’t owe you a goddamn thing—and especially not after they’ve already met with you. That was the time they had for you. They offered a meeting—no more and no less.
The fact that you didn’t spend the last few minutes of the meeting asking for specific feedback and posing the question of whether or not the VC was going to move this forward as a champion of the deal or at least whether they wanted to schedule a next call is your failure. When you’ve got any kind of a lead—be it for selling your product or selling your equity—and you let them go with no scheduled next step, you risk never speaking to them again.
That’s your problem, not theirs."
https://www.thisisgoingtobebig.com/blog/2025/1/13/vcs-dont-owe-you-a-response-or-a-follow-up
33. A great 3 day guide to Chongqing. One day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTvuPv2SiBI
34. Incredible interview. I found myself stopping this frequently to think about some of the suggestions or ideas that came up. All about personal development.
Young and Dangerous: The Challenger Effect
During the mid-90s, there was a series of Hong Kong studio movies chronicling the rise of a group of young Triad gangsters in the Hong Kong underworld. The actors were incredibly good looking and stylish and really romanticized that life a bit too much I would say. I watched this series religiously and it was how I learned mandarin Chinese, by reading the English subtitles but listening to the Chinese. It also explained why my crap Chinese sounded a bit too much like a young hood as my Taiwanese cousins complained to me.
But why I mention this, goes back to the title. Young and dangerous. Progress, innovation and change happens due to the youth. As German physicist Max Planck said: “Science advances one funeral at a time.” They question and they challenge. Think about really young children below the age of 10 who keep asking “why, why, why?” They look at the world with fresh eyes. Naivety can be powerful. One other advantage is they have brand new perspectives. Maybe even more importantly, they also have plenty of energy and vitality. An ability to endure the inevitable pain.
We see this in Silicon Valley which is built on new entrepreneurs and founders who question the status quo. People who ask the hard questions. Who find new fast growing niches while the incumbents stumble around in comfort and complacency trying to protect their cash cows.
We see this on the negative front on the growing crime in Europe and USA, as most criminals committing crimes tend to be young men with hormones coursing through their brains and an inability to think clearly. But also nothing to lose and a willingness to burn down everything around them.
We also see this at the geopolitical level. A still strong but aging USA-led Western World order being challenged by vigorous new (and old) players in China, Russia, Iran and others of the BRICS. It’s easy to see how the gerontocracy and old political class in the West are relying on old tools, tactics and strategies that have worked so well in the past but are declining in effectiveness versus the innovative hybrid approach the new Axis powers are using. It does seem like the West is just plain tired, weary and slow, unable to keep up to the challenges being presented. Death by a thousand cuts.
You can trace all the forms of revolutions in history to be driven by iconoclasts and young people. Who have only energy and are hopeful for a new order with no stakes in the present order. Opposed by people bound by old ideas, customs and traditions that might be out of date.
It’s so easy to get set in your ways, especially if you have been successful. Experience is very valuable but you end up relying on habits and tools that got you to where you are. And in a world of technological, societal and big geopolitical shifts, they may no longer be relevant or useful.
This is a great reminder that if you don’t rejuvenate your thinking, to challenge yourself, you will get left behind. So go hang out with young people, or listen or track what your kids or grandkids are doing. Watch and read different kinds of media and books. Get out of your filter bubble and get alternative views that challenge your beliefs. And even if you are older, keep doing hard things to take you out of any comfort zone. Comfort is death literally and figuratively.
Be the Difference Maker
Everyone says television is damaging. That it is propaganda, a distraction and its crack for your brain. I get it. But I think it’s what you watch, how you interpret it and how you use it. I still do watch some television but I try to curate what I watch and I try to filter and think about what I watch. I squeeze lessons and whatever positive from it and know that most of it’s mainly fiction.
But there are so many great comments, observations that provide insight and inspiration. I’ve always loved “Billions” and the easily quotable deca-billionaire hedge funder Bobby Axelrod. Or ruthless yet kind cowboy tycoon John Dutton of the Yellowstone series fame. But the series I’ve written about before, Special Ops: Lioness, is especially good. There is this one scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIqW2-_GiaE, where one of the main characters is recruited. It’s so good.
Her commander tells her: “We are the strong. We protect the weak. We are merciless in that endeavor. Is that an endeavor you wish to pursue?
There’s 1.4 million active duty personnel in the Armed Forces. They all do their part. But there is not a thousand among them that we can call on to make a difference. I think you could be one of those few. But it means walking away from the life you lived up to this point, and never looking back. That life is over.”
I’ve been thinking about this all continuously. I read this every day. I realized how blind and weak I was. And because of this, how I let my family down in 2020 and probably before that too. I was so caught up in the rat race, focusing on the wrong things. I forgot my true mission. When the storm came in 2020, I was rekt because of my weakness, and this also rekt my family. What a painful wake up call.
It’s been a hard road for the last 4 years trying to pick up the pieces and rebuild. Rebuilding myself, my health, my family, my business. Deeply focused on getting smarter and especially getting strong mentally, physically and financially. And it seems to be working bit by bit.
And it only got better when I understood reality and ignored the societal propaganda. Forgive me for sounding like Andrew Tate, but as a man, your goal is not to be happy. Women and children should focus on being happy. Your goal is to be useful. Your job is to do the hard things everyday and enable their happiness and make them happy. That is it.
So this is your regular reminder on finding your true purpose, doing hard Sh-t, getting really strong and fit, getting rich and capable so you can be the difference maker in your family and community. You owe them that. You owe yourself too. BE THE DIFFERENCE MAKER. Now get back to work!!
The World is a Mirror: You Hate in Others What You Hate in Yourself
I was randomly watching an episode of “The Property Brothers”, a show about twins who help families renovate, sell and buy a new house. I had a visceral reaction to the couple in this one episode. The father was cheap, a whiner and super negative while the wife was a demanding individual with zero sense of money and taste.
I especially hated the husband and I quickly realized it was because it reminded me of the old me, the prior to 2020 me. The scarcity mindset and negative attitude. An inability to handle stress and high pressure situations and setbacks.
I also hated the guy's intense focus on saving money to the detriment of the mental health of his family. And to the point of trying to save money that he even did his own home repairs that damaged the house and put his family and home at fire risk just to save a few bucks. Short sighted. And his unwillingness to be flexible and figure out new creative ways of getting what he wanted. I mean you can’t find a way to make an additional $60 bucks a month for the mortgage for your dream house?? And you live in America which is full of opportunities??
And even worse he was a complainer and never took responsibility for anything. He would blame others when things did not go smoothly.
He also never showed an ounce of gratitude when the Property brothers successfully sold their house for above asking price and got a deal for them in their new house. The dad was a complete loser who will go nowhere in life.
Most people are like that dad. I was like that dad and I am still angry at myself for living my life like that for so long. Think of what I would have accomplished by now if I had figured this out earlier. I was my own worst enemy because of this mindset.
But the point about this is that your reactions to people and situations are a mirror to yourself. You hate certain people and situations because they reflect your own values. Or more likely they reflect the things you hate in yourself.
Understand this, step back and try to examine these feelings a bit more and maybe you will have a chance to fix it.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 26th, 2025
Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man--Benjamin Franklin
A deeply philosophical conversation on AI and society.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Un5EHASTpJI
2. "One of Kahneman and Tversky’s earliest insights was the simple observation that we feel the pain of loss more intensely than the pleasure of profit. It’s irrational to an economist, but we put more value on not losing $100 than we do on gaining $100.
We also have a skewed perception of probable gains and losses: We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely things. Insurance is a profitable business because people would rather suffer a series of guaranteed small losses (premiums) than risk a single but unlikely catastrophic loss. The healthy profit margins of insurance companies reflect our tendency to overestimate the likelihood of calamities. Overestimating an unlikely outcome is also the secret behind the lotto, which offers terrible odds. Some examples of how this has influenced my actions. (Note: I am not claiming these are the right way to put Kahneman’s insights to use, just my way.) What I’ve done:
I actively limit the number of decisions I have to make to preserve neuron power for the key ones. I have other people order for me at restaurants; I have a uniform for work/working out, wearing the same thing every day, and someone else buys my clothes. I delegate the majority of decisions at Prof G Media — I participate in a one-hour weekly editorial meeting and check in with my executive producer 2x per month on business issues. I have not planned a vacation in 20 years or put anything on my calendar in 10.
Despite having made more than 30 investments in private firms over the past decade, I review few documents, and rarely even sign them. (That’s all handled by counsel.) I try to reserve the largest possible cache of gray matter for research, thinking, storytelling (writing, presentations, etc.), and investment decisions. Over the next five years, I plan to outsource all investment decisions so I can focus on storytelling."
https://www.profgalloway.com/think-slow-2/
3. Some scary geopolitical takes. G7 going to C-Zero, everyone for themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UebsZIt_XgI
4. I like this idea of "Custom made reality." A great discussion on having a good life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjvIjTJsLRo
5. Sartorial Shooter. Great advice for young men. Find challenges, get some life experiences, get tougher. Build yourself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Gp4IoVPCxc
6. "Ultimately, regular entrepreneur communication helps everyone. It helps the entrepreneur get their thoughts, metrics, goals, and reflections down in one place. It helps partners, mentors, advisors, and investors stay up-to-date with both the good and the bad, as well as ways they can help and contribute to the mission.
And when the journey has come to a close, it provides a diary of sorts, documenting all the craziness and effort required to build something from nothing. Every entrepreneur should write a regular communication, and the best time to start is now."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/28/5-best-practices-for-effective-entrepreneur-updates/
7. "You’re always inside a system. The only question is: Which?"
https://oldbooksguy.substack.com/p/10-laws-of-big-systems
8. Really went down the rabbit hole of Jules, Sartorial Shooter. A true renaissance gentleman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpwKySPPDGM&t=5604s
9. Living the digital nomad life in Tbilisi. Good for him. Low cost structure and making & saving USD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwIUQfDiOsM
10. "That’s what creators do. They solve the infinite set of problems that life presents. Without problems, there is no creativity. Without problems, there is no purpose. Pain and suffering stem from the inability to understand problems and, more so, relinquishing your ability to solve them. A world without creativity and purpose is a world without life.
The mark of a sovereign individual is that they learn how to learn:
They have an evolving vision for the future
They build a meaningful project as one stepping stone
They identify problems that prevent progress
They generate ideas and test solutions
They become more efficient with time
They deposit their creation and knowledge
If valuable, they are rewarded by the monetary system of that society
If not valuable, they error correct until valuable
And lastly, they never, ever quit because someone else’s vision trumps their own.
Do it all. Write. Design. Market. Sell. Film. Code. Be the generalist you were born to be. Be the orchestrator of ideas. The governor of thought. AI is simply a tool that now allows you to learn and do all of these. Once it becomes your master, you lose.
Nobody can tell you what to do in the future. But has it ever been any different? We’re just talking in circles at this point. You’re looking for a quick fix as always and you know that the longest path is the quickest fix. The principles haven’t changed, you just haven’t taken the leap."
https://thedankoe.com/letters/agi-will-make-you-irrelevant-how-to-future-proof-yourself/
11. "The truth most miss: The price of a great cofounder isn’t what you give up at the start. It’s what you must give up every day — your certainties, your ego, your illusion of control. The fees are paid in questioned assumptions, abandoned convictions, and constant adaptation.
Here’s what you do tomorrow: Stop looking for the perfect cofounder. Start looking for someone worth paying the price for. Someone who makes you think better, not just work harder. Someone whose doubts you trust more than your own certainties. Someone who makes you question everything except their commitment to finding truth.
Because the highest price you’ll pay isn’t finding a great cofounder. It’s what happens when you try to build something massive without one."
https://medium.com/@mtrajan/price-of-a-great-co-founder-5fe35d62b441
12. "Whenever you see a topic becoming too polarizing in SV, it’s a good idea to take a step back and play devil’s advocate. When everyone was posting about how OSS AI models were catching up, you could still see where the talent was flowing (OpenAI, Anthropic) and make an educated bet that proprietary models would lead with new form factors.
When codegen was the focus of all of tech twitter, companies like HeyGen and ElevenLabs were being started as some of the breakout apps of the GenAI revolution."
https://shomik.substack.com/p/escape-the-silicon-valley-filter
13. "The key difference, for now, is that Moscow’s problems appear more latent than Kyiv’s. A manpower shortage on the frontline can have an immediate impact at the tactical and operational levels, especially if the adversary holds the initiative. However, at the strategic level, Russia’s outlook remains anything but optimistic; I would even argue it is exceptionally grim.
Like anyone else, I cannot pinpoint exactly when Russia’s resources will be exhausted—it could happen in 2026 or perhaps as late as 2030. But there is no question that Moscow’s capacity to wage war is finite, and Russia will eventually run out. The critical question is whether Ukraine can hold out until that point.
This is what Western decision-makers need to understand: at a strategic level, Russia is a dead man walking. 2024 has made this highly evident, most notably by Russia’s complete inability to expand itsforces to effectively respond to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. The West’s minimum objective for Ukraine should therefore simply be to ensure Ukraine can outlast Russia. This is entirely achievable, provided Europe and the United States maintain consistent support with equipment and Ukraine addresses its manpower challenges (a more realistic scenario if Ukraine’s partners uphold their commitments)."
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/where-the-war-stands-personal-reflections
14. "As I often emphasize, if you're looking to invest in outliers, groundbreaking technology, and the next big thing, you need to consider emerging managers. These are the true scouts—identifying diamonds in the rough, taking the boldest risks, and positioning themselves for the biggest rewards.
When choosing a manager, ensure they offer opportunities to learn, co-invest, follow on, and actively support their portfolio companies. Keep in mind, building a successful startup takes time. Raising additional capital, scaling operations, and achieving a meaningful exit is a long-term journey. Investing in this space means committing to a partnership that spans years—patience and collaboration are key."
https://startupstechvc.beehiiv.com/p/are-mega-vc-funds-just-pe-now
15. "Due to a fluke of history, widespread prosperity existed in a few locations in the 20th century.
That fluke is in the process of correcting itself as we speak.
You can’t rely on wages earned from employment to sustain your standard of living. Building a successful business is the only way to survive.
The good thing is that this is the easiest time in history to make money.
You have to pull yourself up to the top of the pyramid instead of coasting in the middle, because the middle won’t exist for much longer.
It’s either the bottom of the pyramid or the top.
You can either be a business owner Sovereign Individual yourself or you can be one of the interchangeable laborers hoping/praying that you get a job working for one.
Which will you choose?"
https://www.tetramarketing.io/p/the-world-is-flat
16. "The mega trends in the USA are unchanged and nobody (Trump, DeSantis, Elon, Bezos, flavor of the month trending main character) will change that.
The mega trends are as follows:
-Global competitive market
-AI and robotics removing manual labor
-Crypto to remove legacy financial systems
-Wealth inequality due to tech (Tether made $10B *profit* with 200 people or $50,000,000 per person!!!!)
-Need for UBI or UBL (wrote about here years ago)
-People spending nearly all their time online/on-chain as economic activity is largely done Digitally (Digital Immersion)
To be clear on this, all of these six things are not going to change regardless of who is in charge. This is just a cartoon account writing on the internet but that’s the view on this side of the interwebz."
Tariffs/Automation: With a quick history recap, the USA essentially shipped all its manufacturing abroad decades ago. This was in exchange for making the US dollar the default for all global trade. Effectively, weaponizing the dollar allowing the USA to freeze and sanction anyone we like (what we did to Russia).
Slowly but surely bleeding them out.
We’ve been in a “war” for a long time. It just isn’t missiles and bombs, it’s a chokehold on Foreign countries that do anything we dislike.
The cost of this is pretty clear, it makes manufacturing cost prohibitive in the USA due to the extreme strength of the dollar. Therefore, if the policies of Tariffs and manufacturing in the USA work it’ll be a long process and will require robots to compete with child/slave labor from China/Mexico.
The summary here (assuming he goes through with tariffs) is that short term costs increase. The end result is automation of the process onshore."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/trump-policies-expectations-vs-reality
17. "TL;DR: Since the USA is finally waking up to weaponizing USDT and further entrenching the dollar as a global trade currency, Americans have much less to worry about. As long as you hold your coins on cold storage in a doomsday scenario of confiscation, you’ll be fine.
The majority have already bought millions of BTC via centralized platforms. The USA no longer views it as a threat (and rightfully so).
Summary
Nothing, NOTHING, will ever pass in the U.S. that threatens the dollar’s role as the ultimate weapon of control. The U.S. weaponized the dollar and traded its manufacturing base for global control. Crypto *was* the counter-weapon—a decentralized, censorship-resistant alternative that challenges the fiat system. However. At this point the US owns an enormous amount of crypto and the more likely scenario is that it further entrenches the dollar.
Great news for crypto coins and America. Bad news for people abroad."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/the-usd-inflation-and-crypto-the
18. "Expect a lot of stars and strips and tricornered hats—the Tea Party with higher production values.
The boom boom aesthetic plays with the muscular patriotism of Americana. It summons the animal spirits: performance and profit. We see this in the growth of the Gundo, the defense tech cluster in the Los Angeles County beach town, El Segundo.
And don’t expect the westernwear trend to go anywhere soon. As Paul Skallas noted, country music is the most popular genre in America. Bela Hadid moved to Dallas to date a cowboy. But this is one of many Americana looks. Westernwear joins white trash chic (Southern), neo-yuppie (Coastal), preppy revival (Northeastern), and elevated workwear (Midwestern) as one regional element among many."
https://www.8ball.report/p/2025-predictions
19. "A critical part of the CEO’s job is realizing when it’s time to sell the company.
I’m talking about the much more difficult case where the company is performing well financially, but the CEO sees storm clouds on the horizon that indicate the future will quite probably not be as rosy as the past.
The ultimate problem is that you can’t see around corners when you’re only looking at performance metrics. Even leading indicators like pipeline won’t be leading enough to show these problems. The best chance of seeing the problem in the data is if a few of your earliest, most visionary customers have moved onto the new thing. But due to switching costs, this doesn’t often happen. Other companies, who skipped your generation of technology, are more likely to be the first adopters of the new, new thing.
https://kellblog.com/2024/12/30/the-paradox-of-saying-its-time-to-sell-the-company/
20. Great list of some interesting new history and geopolitics books for 2025.
21. Love this series. Living like a King in Yerevan, a cool city I need to spend more time in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPfb9qTpzKA
22. "So what am I going to do? I’ve had a hard time writing the December letter and finishing this piece. If anything this makes me want to buy gold and start running my own bitcoin node and buy more bitcoin when the MVRV is flashing price is below realized price as a f-ck you to the Professional Managerial Class. Syria has showed me they hate my friends and I, and I hate them back.
Meanwhile buying a house has showed me while all these things are happening in the world, loans are underwritten with the assumption that counterparty and liquidity risk are not real risks in the US financial system. I think those are real risks, so I want to continue to have liquidity that is not someone else’s liability now more than ever.
But I am trying to be less naive as I get older and fully realize that it is entirely possible the PMC goes right on ruling, being able to slowly take debt/GDP down, since most people say they want freedom but actually want safety, comfort, and a soft life. So I also fully realize that having dollar liquidity by building a bond ladder and a permanent portfolio makes sense.
Overall the point for me after Syria is I want to be in a position where I live a great life, am prepared for either outcome, and any time I hear the PMC or their apologists tell me why I need to care or defend the RBO I can just smile and silently think, “go f-ck yourself.”
https://radigan-carter.beehiiv.com/p/syria-and-beyond
23. "And the irony in all this, is that the big winner from increased European defence spending, whatever Trump might say, is the US, as it still has the most capable military kit and military industries to supply Europe with the defensive kit it now will need in huge scale. Whatever the outcome of the war in Ukraine, US defence industries will profit immensely from the outcome. Indeed, arguably a cynic would suggest that for the US, a bad peace deal in Ukraine, leaving Europe insecure, will see the biggest demand for US military kit and for years to come.
The big conclusion still for Europe is that the best investment that it can make in its own long term defence is through short term investment in making sure Ukraine is able to defend itself and the rest of Europe. It also should have a huge self interest in making sure any peace deal agreed by Trump et al over the war in Ukraine is sustainable, meaning it leaves Ukraine secure against future attacks.
This could be through NATO membership, security guarantees from individual Western states or assurances to Ukraine that it will be supplied with the full spectrum of Western conventional military capability to be able to defend itself as per the State of Israel guarantee."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-key-to-europes-lt-defence
24. "Japan is not threatening, not feared; but Japan is admired. It is the world’s only true post-industrial society, a frontrunner in many areas – a role model for having engineered the fastest and most successful economic development ever, for having a socio-economy resilient enough to survive the biggest deflation cycle in history without suffering social unrest and disruptive inequality; and that is now teaching the world how to age gracefully, how to maintain and create equitable prosperity by enhancing asset income rather than relying primarily on employment income.
All over the world, Japan is admired for an exemplary balance between intense economic modernization and solid perseverance of national traditions and social norms; for having not just imported western culture but perfected and improved upon it in so many areas - from architecture to fashion to food or video games, male- and female figure skating, golf or baseball. Make no mistake: viewed from a global perspective, Japan is the most highly respected nation and culture in both the East and the West, and the North and the South of this world. Japan has got what it takes to lead a global ‘Pax Nipponica’.
In 2024, Japan has a unique opportunity to re-set national ambitions and goals. It`s not about saying ‘no’ or ‘yes’ to America (or China). The world is waiting for Japan to say ‘we propose to do it this way’. Japan has got what it takes to be a global rule maker and mediator between East and West, North and South. ‘Pax Nipponica’ is an ambition the world is waiting for, and Japan’s elite should embrace. As a Japan optimist, I hope they will."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/pax-nipponica
25. I always appreciate what Joules the Sartorial Shooter says. A thoughtful, smart, practical and successful business man who is a good role model for men. Just like Justin Waller.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndHIaigykPM&t=979s
26. “The demand for manpower may see more mercenaries in frontline roles, augmenting national forces during major deployments or even forming the whole of an expeditionary corps for politically sensitive operations. Russia’s Wagner Group is something of a template for this: although more of an organ of the state than a true PMC, used to deploy Russian ex-servicemen without official involvement, it has been active throughout Africa and the Middle East.”
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/mercenaries-and-manpower
27. "The emergence of such PMCs hinges entirely on the market for them; yet any country requiring their support will only know when it faces a very unexpected shortfall—few countries would force their combat troops to rely on an untested service. This catch-22 makes it very difficult for any contractor to build a business. Added to this is the complication that any business touching on national security prerogatives is typically carefully guarded by its home country—military assets automatically become a diplomatic asset.
Current geopolitical configurations divert acquisition efforts toward one of two large blocs: the US its allies, or the broader China-Russia bloc. Only a few countries are able to straddle the two (e.g. India), although factions are less constrained in more localized conflicts where the requirements are smaller and the stakes lower—witness Libya, where the national government received backing from Turkey and Italy, whereas France, Russia, and the UAE provided support to General Haftar."
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/middle-tier-technology-an-invisible
28. Digging this series. Living like a King in Madrid, one of the best cities in Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Y9HskItx60
29. "What about China? On one hand, unlike Russia, it’s a productive, manufacturing-oriented state — a repressive place in many ways, but unless you’re a Uighur in Xinjiang, not exactly a nightmare. Hong Kongers have experienced a steady loss of political and cultural freedoms since the city’s peaceful resistance was crushed a few years ago, but people there are not yet being sent to the camps or slaughtered in the street.
And yet China is becoming a more repressive place over time, as its power grows. The government is building hundreds of new detention facilities all across the country for the emperor’s political opponents. The civil society that began to flourish in previous decades has been increasingly ground into nothingness. The bargain in which the state provides economic growth in exchange for rights and freedoms has broken down, and Chinese people are now asked to accept the authoritarianism without the growth. Discontent may not yet be so apparent that tourists are inundated with expressions of rage, but signs of dissatisfaction are on the rise, and those who can get money out of the country are generally doing it.
If you bend the knee to Earth’s new empires, you are essentially making a bet that these trends will reverse themselves — that the repression is a temporary expedient, a necessary transitory phase while the empires establish order, after which things will get better for your grandchildren. There are many times and places in history when such a bet would have actually paid off. But the Ukrainians who are resisting Russian conquest have decided that given their history with previous incarnations of that empire, it’s a bad bet this time.
Whether Taiwan will resist or capitulate in the face of overwhelming force remains to be seen, but the other nations in Asia — Japan, Vietnam, Korea, etc. — have a long history of refusing to incorporate themselves into Chinese empires.
Until now, the independence of those countries has been guaranteed by the intercession of a more distant great power — the United States. But that once-mighty nation is increasingly not in a condition to resist the Chinese empire — or even the far weaker Russian one."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-players-on-the-eve-of-destruction
30. "This is not Ukraine’s war. This is a war that is being fought on Ukrainian territory, but for the principles on which Europe rests and for its security. To ignore this conflict would be to accept a world where borders mean nothing, international law is dead, and aggressors like Russia can trample smaller states without consequence. This is a war that concerns all of us –because what happens in Ukraine tomorrow can happen anywhere in Europe.
Their fight is not an act of mercy toward the West; it is a defense of the world we all want to live in. Every European country that provides aid to Ukraine is investing in its own security and future; it is not giving anything away to Ukraine. Because if Ukraine loses, Europe as a whole loses.
The war in Ukraine is not a local conflict – it is a moment of truth for the whole world. It is a conflict between a rule-abiding civilization and an authoritarianism that defies all boundaries. Any country that hesitates to support Ukraine today is taking a huge risk with its own future."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44643
31. Always a fun show: The Random show that is both entertaining and educational.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFMCySpcroI&t=3490s
32. "At the end of the 2 weeks, I left feeling deflated and foolish. I didn’t want to start a robotics company. The only thing that seemed interesting to me was humanoids. It started to dawn on me that what I actually wanted was to look like Elon, and that is incredibly cringe. It hurts to even type this out."
https://vinay.sh/i-am-rich-and-have-no-idea-what-to-do-with-my-life/
33. Interesting take on AI. Fragile ecosystem of advanced microchips will be challenged in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XXBPzeMgaM
34. "There’s currently no magic routine that will make humans live forever. But for tech millionaire Bryan Johnson, the quest to live longer lies in a routine of pills, shots, blood draws, and experimental therapy regimes he says are rewinding his biological clock. And in Netflix’s new documentary Don’t Die: The Man Who Wants To Live Forever, released Jan. 1, filmmakers bring viewers behind the scenes to discover how much work and cash trying to live forever actually takes.
It’s a fascinating attempt to peel back the psyche of a man who is obsessed with aging, and one who ends up arguing that even with his quirks, Johnson might be building something meaningful to people. But he’s also very, very strange."
35. A really fun and interesting episode of 2025 predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxNUAwBWX4I
36. "Entrepreneurs would do well to pay more attention to who has a ‘yes’ face, to those who more frequently volunteer to help. Then, turn that understanding into a strategy to seek out more people with a bias towards saying yes. Entrepreneurs should look for the ‘yes’ face and get help on their mission."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/01/04/entrepreneurs-should-look-for-the-yes-face/
37. "Truth is, as the axis of dictatorships continues to consolidate, both politically and militarily, the collective West — though declaring itself united— remains fractured. Democratic allies are often at cross-purposes when it comes to their economic interests, and they lack a shared threat assessment as well.
The post-Cold War decades have accustomed Western societies to life with limited risk — or preferably without risk altogether. In the minds of their citizens, globalization removed state-on-state violence from their national security equation. The “complex interdependence” fostered by the internationalization of manufacturing enmeshed state interests to such an extent, that for them, it became competition rather than war, and negotiation rather than confrontation that framed the world order.
Our naïveté and wishful thinking prevented us from realizing that when it comes to hard power, there’s only dependence — and there’s nothing complex about that, other than who depends on whom and for what."
38. Stealth wealth for the win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWYxAbXVK1U
39. Fun series of videos. Live Like a King in KL.
Let the Sleeper Awake: Hybrid War is Here, Kinetic War is Coming
Dune 2 is a movie worth watching many times. It’s aesthetically beautiful. It’s a real human drama and the action sequences are great. Grand entertainment. Clear but conflicted good guys like the Atreides and Femen, and some real dastardly psychotic bad guys like the Harkonnens and Emperor. Truly evil.
In some ways, like the real life situation we find ourselves in right now. The declining & hapless West of America, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia/New Zealand vs the ambitions of the autocratic powers of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
I would argue we are in a Cold War right now. More proof on the quiet invasion of the USA by the CCP: https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1875008791944855821/photo/1. It’s pretty grim and damning.
The question we should be asking ourselves is the one that comes up in the movie: “No need to be a prophet to see what’s ahead. Your path leads to war. You know that. So war is coming.
What will you do when you feel it’s breath upon your neck?”
Now I may be called a warmonger or a war profiteer. I wish for peace, I have a great life traveling around, doing the fun things I do. I’ve thrived for the most part over the last 2 decades in this globalized, overall peaceful world. Unfortunately, the world has changed dramatically in February of 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We are not in Kansas anymore. “The world has made choices for us.”
We the West are weak, divided and our enemies are united in their alliance to topple the geopolitical top dog of America. They have explicitly stated their goals of a new world order under their aegis. A world order counter to our interests and one that contravenes every value we hold dear: freedom of speech, freedom of opportunity and freedom of law. We have to pick a side. Everyone does.
We are no saints, I admit. While I am not a fan of our present incompetent, disconnected and corrupt political elites in the West, especially since their complete disastrous actions since the 2020 Covid pandemic, maybe even going back to the disaster of Iraq War 2. They are the lesser of evils compared to the new CRINK alliance of authoritarian countries. A combination of the mass populace, wealth and manufacturing power of China combined with the natural resources of Russia and plenty of cannon fodder from Iran and North Korea.
This is the biggest threat to the West since World War 2. Arguably even bigger as we don’t have the industrial heft, unity and credibility we used to have. And most of the Western leadership and populace seems asleep. Or worse in denial, blinded by wishful thinking, pining for a world that does not exist anymore. We should be preparing for hardship, “eating bitterness” as the Chinese saying goes.
As per the original Dune story, we need to “let the sleeper awake.” “A good hunter always climbs to the highest dune before his hunt. He needs to see as far as he can see. You need to see.”
Love in Taipei: Reminiscing about The Love Boat Program 1995
The Love Boat aka Chinese Language and Study Tour in Taiwan was legendary among Asian Americans/ Canadian teens. It was a long standing program where 500-800 young 18-22 year old Asian Americans/Canadians went for the summer. For parents it was a study thing, for most of us it was just an excuse to party. I did the program in 1995 and it was literally 6 weeks of eating, drinking, very late night clubbing and partying. It was so much fun although I was a wreck by the end of the program. But I got the clubbing stuff out of my system. Met lots of cool folks from all across the US and Canada too. A good rite of passage. Plus I got to see and visit most of the major cities and tourist areas of Taiwan which was amazing.
So I was thrilled when I saw the movie ”Love in Taipei” came out. Based on a book by Abigail Wen’s “Loveboat Taipei” which I have to read but will. The movie centers around Ever Wong, a “Sheltered young American discovers first love during a wild, fun and unforgettable summer in Taipei, Taiwan” and makes her question her pre-set future. It’s not a great movie but it was entertaining and brought back memories of fun times in Taipei, one of my favorite cities in the world. “You can’t learn culture in a classroom.”
It also covers all the travails that only an Asian-American/Canadian would understand. The high parental expectations and pressure. The crazy sacrifice by their parents and The guilt trips. There was a great comment made by Ever: “It feels selfish to want to do what you want when your family has done all the hard work for you.” Along with plenty of family obligations and family judgement, especially with all the relatives. That was never fun even though they meant well.
There was also the constant worrying about the future and feeling deeply the culture clash. “I don’t know what I want. Right now in life, it feels like I’m torn between two of everything. Two cultures. Two languages. Two career paths.” I definitely knew that feeling back then as a 21 year old.
But Ever’s aunt gives her great advice. “You worry so much about the life that you want, you never take the time to appreciate the life that you have.” That absolutely makes sense for all ages I think. We’re just not great at enjoying the moment, I am particularly future oriented, which is great for business but not so good for having fun (although I could argue business is fun!)
Most of us, well at least us Gen X Asian kids, were pretty uptight, used to strict rules at home. It took a while to learn to relax. It was funny when Ever’s friend tries to convince her to break curfew and go out partying. “Remember that crazy fun night when you followed the rules? No? Exactly, because no one ever remembers those nights.” A reminder that you need to chill out and cut loose every once in a while. Have some fun.
It also brought reminders of why I hate Asian-American/Canadian culture. The credentialism, the competitive comparison and judgement: like “oh, you did not get straight As or go to Ivy League or top tier university?” I so hated this growing up in Canada and experienced this even in my first few years in the USA. But I am pleased and petty enough to say, 25 years later I won and I crushed them all in the end (except for Charles, damn you for selling your company for $300M+ usd. :)
Anyways, if you are looking for a fun and light hearted movie to watch, especially as an Asian-American, you will enjoy “Love in Taipei.” “They say the air is clearest after a rain. I started to feel that way about my life too. And the irony was the realization that not everything needed to be clear. The key was having the courage to leap into the unknown.” And as one of the main characters says: “It reminds me to follow my own path.”
Building Your Financial BarBell: Personal Finance Lessons & a Portfolio Review
I’ve long stressed health but also wealth. Money matters. Money matters because freedom is expensive. There is a term called FIRE, which stands for Financially Independent Retire Early. I prefer FIWOOT which can be attributed to Michael Karnjanaprakorn. Financial Independence but Work On Own Terms.
Keep your job if you like it. Or quit and take a few years off. Or take a half year sabbatical. Or start your own business, which is easier than ever with all the AI tools out there. The point is to live the life you want or as the Sartorial Shooter calls it “your own custom made reality.”
Money is a valuable tool to take care of loved ones and help others. It’s a tool to support causes that matter to you. It’s not just about material things although I certainly do enjoy them. It’s also about having resources to have good and fun experiences.
So note: this is not investing advice & please do your own due diligence but I want to share with folks what I’m doing right now. Some hard earned financial lessons.
Reiterating some basics:
–Spend less than you earn and really watch the hedonistic treadmill. DO NOT keep up with the Jones as they say. Manage your cost structure tightly.
–Saving is important but put more focus on increasing your income
–Having multiple sources of income is a must
–Have at least 12 months of expenses in cash or liquid equivalents
–Optimize for getting equity in great businesses, as many as possible
So assuming you do these things it already puts you ahead of 95% of the populace. Now the fun part (at least to me). Investing and managing any money and building wealth.
I should note before we start that my investing timeline tends to be long. Most preseed and seed stage startups take 10-15 years before any exit. Same with the Venture capital funds. And my public stocks and crypto I usually invest on a long term horizon. Ie. never less than 5 years. I’m not wired well to do stock trading.
I’m a firm believer in the barbell. As I have written before, my biggest mistake was not understanding illiquid versus liquid assets. Up until 2020 I was overweight on Illiquid stuff: real estate & VC funds/startup equity. Now I think about the barbell of illiquid and liquid assets and how these need to be counterbalanced. It’s almost a 4 part dumbbell like a 2 X 2 grid. Liquid assets versus Illiquid assets. Risky but high potential versus less risky & safer.
So the components. On the illiquid but less risky side: I have real estate, usually some income generating stuff.
On the illiquid but super risky: I have LP checks in emerging vc funds, lots of equity stakes in various tech startups. Probably still VERY overweight here if I am honest.
On the Liquid but risky: Crypto, yes ETH & BTC should be in everyone’s portfolio (will say 3-5% at least of your portfolio). I also have a bundle of tech stocks like Microstrategy which is basically a play BTC as they are so levered up in their treasury. I also own way too many public tech stocks like NVDA, TSMC, MSFT, SMH etc.
On the liquid but less risky: I’m a fan of dividend generating stocks like PBR.A, XOM, CCJ, MOS, CF, BTU, MP, URNM as well as other commodity, natural resources and energy public companies. I also have the general Vanguard ETFs which track the stock market at large.
The whole point is to think of these in the form of a balanced portfolio. Not quite Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio which is a portfolio split between 25% Stocks, 25% bonds, 25% cash, 25% gold but it’s my version of it. Everyone needs to figure out their own allocation.
It’s also a reflection of the life I am enjoying. I work as much as I want and whenever I want. I get to do lots of reading and studying up on startups, sales/marketing/operating, geopolitical & technology trends.
All of this informs my investing with the market telling me if I am right or wrong.
I’ll do this for the rest of my life as I think it keeps your mind sharp. And it’s some of the most fun and financially rewarding things one can do. The sooner you start this process the better off you will be.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 19th, 2025
“No matter how hard the past is, you can always begin again”--Buddha
"At that stage of our careers and entrepreneurial journeys, maintaining a standing daily check-in proved invaluable. It allowed us to meet, share our experiences, and grow together as a group. Entrepreneurs should find a peer group and look for ways to grow faster with activities like a daily check-in."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/14/daily-check-in-amongst-entrepreneurs/
2. Creator economy is back. It's evolving fast too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F54fcJFz_7M&t=163s
3. Describing the vibe shift in Silicon Valley and the USA at large. An Insight dense conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn9YZP_Zm50&t=251s
4. "Yes, everything is aligning. You may call it industrial policy, friendshoring, or de-risking. It adds up to the same thing: state-directed investment. Again, read the Macron speech. He says if we don’t learn to build stuff again, Europe can die. Of course, he’s prone to overdramatic statements, but he didn’t say Europe is a bit ill. He said Europe can die.
This is a question of life and death. Building military equipment is life and death stuff. It has become an issue of national survival to invest. Governments all over the world find the need to direct investments to purposes they want to achieve."
5. "How truly democratic today’s democracies are has become an open question. Negative answers trouble the political life of many nations. Everywhere the traditional parties, creatures of a decaying consensus, are in the grip of disintegration. They are being replaced by sectarian war bands that challenge the very legitimacy of the system. The public has a vague notion of what it is for but knows with terrible clarity what it stands against. A spirit of negation has inspired massive street uprisings in the style of France’s Yellow Vests and Black Lives Matter here at home, as well as the election of unorthodox populists like Donald Trump.
I analyzed the causes of this upheaval in my 2014 book, “The Revolt of the Public.” In brief, I argued that institutional elites have failed to adapt to the vast flows of information of the digital age. They reside at the top of great hierarchies that tower uneasily over a flattened socioeconomic landscape—and they want nothing to change. They crave the eternal preservation of the 20th-century regime, in which they wielded unquestioned authority and had the power to conceal their dirty secrets. In pursuit of this ideal—fondly labeled “our democracy”—they have grown ever more reactionary and antidemocratic over the decades.
In Britain and Brazil today, you can land in jail for voicing antiestablishment opinions on social media. Here in the U.S., the Biden administration erected a censorship apparatus to mute online dissidence—and, we recently learned, “debanked,” or cast out of the financial system without right of appeal, those engaged in disfavored operations such as cryptocurrency.
The Revolt Gains Legitimacy
With the triumphant second coming of Trump, the revolt of the public has entered a new phase. The cordon sanitaire that isolated the president-elect from all respectable political and cultural gatekeepers has tumbled like the walls of Jericho. Yesterday, he was Hitler—opposing him was a moral imperative. Today, having risen out of the depths of disgrace, he heads a movement that contains much of the energy and excitement to be found in this country."
https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/revolt-of-the-public-10-years-on
6. "The only way the US can regain some defense industrial base competitive advantage is to partner with free world countries that have the manufacturing expertise and cost structure to compete with China. That is a very short list: Ukraine and Mexico. And Mexico doesn’t have much of a defense industry.
In the free world, Ukraine is the low cost producer of defense tech and defense production. It was the defense industrial base of the USSR. Handing this over to Putin would be a strategic mistake of epic proportions.
Not to mention the free world’s largest and only battle proven military. Losing that to Russia seems…unwise.
And then there are the minerals. According to a Washington Post article yesterday, Ukraine sits on $25 tr of critical minerals. 27 of them. 22 of them which the US sources from Russia and China. For example, Ukraine has the world’s largest uranium deposits. Right now, the biggest source of uranium for the US power industry is Kazakhstan—mines owned by China and Russia.
Ukraine is rich in neodymium, which is used for most magnets. Including the magnets in almost every small drone motor used by the US military. Currently, China is the source of 90% of the world’s neodymium. Indeed, 40% of US weapons systems are dependent on Chinese components.
As China increasingly disengages with the West as it shifts from export-led growth to domestic demand-driven growth, its relative power grows while that of the US wanes.
Saving Ukraine is not only good for the Ukrainians; it is an investment in the strategic security of the US-led liberal world order."
https://theketchumsun.substack.com/p/issue-55-letter-from-kyiv
7. Good overview of Silicon Valley in 2024 and some good projections for 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBlk3MdQPM4
8. "Memo to CEOs: This is the way to do it. Brands and logos and press releases do not resonate with us anymore. We are interested in your people — who they are, what they care about, and what they have to say — not your brand. The most overvalued firm in tech, Palantir, isn’t a tech company, but a CEO (Alex Karp) masking as a public company."
https://www.profgalloway.com/people-are-the-new-brands/
9. "Today, his default pace is 100 miles per hour. To take this random Thursday in August: A couple weeks ago, Johnson was in Japan, finishing shooting a drama called The Smashing Machine. Shortly after that, Johnson appeared at a Disney event to announce that he will soon star in a new film, called Monster Jam. This fall, two movies Johnson has already completed, Red One and Moana 2, will be released. And on Monday, he’ll go back to work, filming a new live-action version of Moana.
Johnson’s work in Hollywood and, lately, in business (tequila, skin care) have made him something not too far from a billionaire; he could retire tomorrow, or even today. But this level of activity is typical and has made Johnson unbelievably successful: Every morning he wakes up, busily performs the character of Dwayne Johnson, and the empire grows."
https://www.gq.com/story/dwayne-johnson-men-of-the-year-cover-2024
10. A great episode this week if you wanna know what's up with businesses at the edge of the internet. Crypto, AI, art and tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICn78rmjMno
11. A grand bit of tinfoil hat theories of global macro and geopolitical strategy. Sounds crazy but entertaining.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvP9rAowyrA
12. Important discussion on geopolitical implications of Syrian turmoil. But this extends to the Russian invasion of Ukraine too, Turkey's new Ottoman Empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wixRrGeH3HY&t=30s
13. This was a worthwhile conversation with Jared Kushner. I learned so much on how to do negotiations well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EagrRPukYdc
14. "Looking ahead, Raj highlighted emerging trends that could redefine defence innovation. Synthetic biology, for instance, offers transformative potential in healthcare and national security. Meanwhile, advancements in energy, such as small nuclear reactors, could underpin future technological breakthroughs.
But the biggest challenge, Raj believes, is not innovation itself, but its adoption. “The Department of Defense doesn’t have an innovation problem; it has an innovation adoption problem,” he said, quoting former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work. Bureaucratic inertia remains a barrier, but Raj remains optimistic, especially as Europe ramps up its efforts in defence and Ukraine becomes a proving ground for new technologies."
https://www.resiliencemedia.co/p/from-f-16s-to-venture-capital-raj
15. An insightful conversation on the future of war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg_zdFF4Y4A
16. "Now, New Founding has launched a venture capital fund to invest in what it calls “aligned companies,” startups that oppose progressive ideologies and are intent on both “cultural and economic disruption.” It’s one of a small but growing number of VCs vocally rejecting ‘wokeism’ and building their investment thesis on core conservative values.
New Founding’s investments are one tentpole of a broader goal: to remake society with a largely MAGA, tech-driven, Christian worldview. It decries leftists as “anti-human,” celebrates technology as a singular force that will define a new era of prosperity, loves crypto and sees the internet (“deeply American in ethos and design”) as a means to its ends. “Our project offers a powerful avenue,” a manifesto on its website published in July reads, “both to develop the class of people who can ultimately challenge the incumbent regime and to acquire the resources, territory, and institutions that will enable this effort.
New Founding CEO Nate Fischer told Forbes these investments are the beginnings of a “parallel economy” offering conservative versions of mainstream services it views as too liberal, like Google’s ad-tech products. “There's a large share of people who feel that their views are almost entirely absent from the institutions that are shaping the future,” Fischer explained. “And there's a real acute need and hunger for alternatives.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidjeans/2024/12/23/anti-woke-venture-capital-new-founding/
17. "Greenland is incredibly resource-rich, with rare earth mineral deposits valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and its geopolitical position is incredibly significant to American interests vis-a-vis our Great Power rivals. Should Greenland fall under the Chinese umbrella, it will have devastating national security implications for the United States.
President-elect Trump’s prioritization of Greenland for negotiation and future annexation is both righteous and strategically prudent. As the first major U.S. acquisition in well over a century, Greenland can serve to shape the president’s legacy in a manner akin to his favorite president: Andrew Jackson."
https://www.dossier.today/p/yes-america-should-absolutely-annex
18. "Now, new export controls on Chinese drone components announced by Beijing and coming into effect next year mean Taiwan is doubling down on its bet that drones become a central feature of modern warfare — and the island becomes a global hub to produce them.
Taiwan is already a critical technology hub, producing 95 percent of the world’s most advanced microchips. Its local drone industry is working to match Chinese manufacturing to help the United States and other Western allies reduce their reliance on China."
https://www.politico.eu/article/taiwan-eyes-war-drones-to-counter-china/
19. "Trump is no kumbaya peace-loving hippie; he fully believes in the military supremacy and exceptionalism of America and delights in slaughtering humans using said military might. Remember that in his first term, he assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on Iraqi soil to the delight of a large swath of America. Trump gave no fucks about violating Iraqi airspace and unilaterally deciding to murder a general of another country against whom America was not officially at war. As such, he wants to properly re-arm the empire so that its capabilities match the hype.
Trump advocates the re-industrialization of America to help those who want good manufacturing jobs and those who wish to possess a strong military. To do so requires reversing the imbalances built under the Petroyuan system. This will be accomplished by weakening the dollar, providing tax grants and subsidies to produce things domestically, and deregulation. All these things combined will make it economically prudent for companies to move production onshore because China is currently the best place to produce things due to the combination of three decades in the making of pro-growth policies.
To summarize, quickly and dramatically weakening the dollar is the first step towards Trump and Bessent achieving their economic goals. It is also something they can accomplish overnight without consulting domestic legislators or foreign finance ministry heads. Given that Trump has one year to show progress on some of his goals to help Republicans maintain their hold on the House and Senate, my base case is a $/gold devaluation in the first half of 2025."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/trump-truth
20. Maniac on a mission. Such a great conversation on what makes entrepreneurial success. Must watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_8KKY8fQdA
21. A true Renaissance man: hedge funder, professional musician, pilot, theologian. Fascinating life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSwszq1xFK0
22. Hard men here. French Foreign Legionnaires in the jungles of French Guiana.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfEGm1iNMcg
23. Situation in Syria: net net, it's gonna be a fragmented mess unless Turkey really asserts itself there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tV6Om9aIz2A
24. A masterclass on AI semiconductor chips. Really great conversation if you want to understand what’s happening with AI right now and implications for big tech (and small).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVcSBHhcFbg&t=2042s
25. "Ukrainian companies can produce nearly three times more weapons than the current Ukrainian budget can procure. The capacity of FPV drone producers already exceeds 4 million per year, while the state budget provides money to contract only slightly more than 1 million.
When the full-scale war began, Ukraine banned weapons exports to ensure all production went to its Armed Forces (AFU). As manufacturing capacity grew beyond military budget needs, a debate emerged about lifting the ban. Instead of resuming exports, Ukraine launched the Zbroyari project – a program where European countries could finance Ukrainian weapons production for the AFU. The message was clear: countries lacking manufacturing capacity could fund procurement from Ukrainian producers."
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/29/can-europe-fill-in-the-gap-if-trump-abandons-ukraine/
26. Our enemies should not be underestimated, especially with Russian military. They are learning and adapting & we should be too.
"Russian forces are attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses along the Donbas front, where the situation has become critical in some places. Their tactics have changed significantly from what was seen during the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Instead of launching large-scale attacks that turned into “meat grinders” with dozens of soldiers charging across open fields, they now send in smaller groups using motorcycles, civilian vehicles, and even electric scooters.
In his analysis, BBC Ukraine war reporter Abdujalil Abdurasulov notes that these small groups attack from multiple directions in succession. While many are eliminated, the sheer number of attempts means some groups eventually break through to reach Ukrainian positions. Despite heavy Russian losses, this approach lets them capture about one village per day.
This change in tactics was largely driven by the widespread use of drones on the battlefield. Modern surveillance and attack drones make it nearly impossible for large groups of soldiers to move without being detected and targeted, forcing Russians to adapt with smaller, more mobile units."
27. I always like listening to Justin Waller. One of the few super positive & credible examples for young men.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqAQsAC4GA8&t=925s
28. "My gift to you: How to make more money in 2025.
I’ve compiled a free list of ways to potentially make more money and get rich(er) in 2025."
https://shindy.substack.com/p/make-money
29. "But, there have also been moments where the crowd failed me. And every time this happened, the reason was the same—the crowd did not have sufficient expertise. They simply didn’t know enough about the topic at hand."
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-ignorance-of-the-crowd/
30. "The only way to fight back is to get average-IQ people to reject our all-too-human craving for certainty.
Internalize the notion that ANYONE strutting around telling you they’ve got a lock on The Truth is an emissary (probably an unwitting one) of an arch-criminal who has a vested interest in getting you (and millions like you with your biases and predilections) to behave in a particular way to the benefit of specific powerful forces."
https://kaichang.substack.com/p/zealots-of-certainty
31. "The Good News? On a final positive note, 2024 is still the greatest time to be alive. Crypto currency is solving a large chunk of these issues in real time. Intermediaries simply sit in the “flow of money” and that rent extraction is moving to digital currencies. Therefore, we don’t even care about the prior three steps! They were just there to tell you the real issue (wealth disparity *not* income disparity).
Instead of fighting all of these loopholes, remember that no one is coming to save you. Not your boss, your family or your country. Save yourself by playing the game correctly (“Don’t hate the player, hate the game")
The game is won by creating digital income (online income) and investing into high quality technology firms and crypto currencies in our opinion. This way your income can be moved to a more tax friendly state/country. This is what the wealthy are doing so you should do it too."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/reminder-wealth-inequality-is-not
32. You can never get enough Justin Waller. Always a good, educational time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNeIk9RVUso&t=7s
33. Good global economic takes here on Xmas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqXDfTyLGu8
34. "Tesla is creating factories that are the product—designing, testing, and perfecting every element just as they do with their cars.
This focus on manufacturing efficiency, Lutz believes, will lead to a dramatic reduction in production costs, potentially bringing them closer to zero. And this shift in how products are built—rather than merely assembled—could set a new standard for the entire manufacturing world."
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/musk-led-manufacturing-revolution-nobody-talking-about
35. Worthwhile conversation on technology, defense-tech, geopolitics and growing influence of Silicon Valley across the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKevZh97Tw
36. You can never get enough Justin Waller. He is the mentor I wish I had when I was younger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4kPtEEsE6A
37. "This reveals something broader about how ecosystems like Silicon Valley work: They’re not just markets — they’re belief systems. Success comes not from playing by the rules, but from understanding why the rules exist and when to break them.
The tragedy isn’t that most founders struggle in Silicon Valley. It’s that they struggle believing they did everything right by the wrong playbook.
Because in Silicon Valley, you’re not just building a business.
You’re auditioning for a role in someone else’s vision of the future. Make sure it is yours."
38. "Certainly as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and the US gets closer to a potential conflict with a technologically sophisticated near-peer adversary, the DoD must continue to find ways to adopt innovative technologies that help warfighters. There is no doubt that in the coming years many startups will break through and land large DoD contracts to deliver essential technology. As such, I predict that there will be at least three new NatSec “unicorns” minted in 2025 – that is, at least three national security focused startups will raise fundraising rounds valuing them at $1B or more.
Although there’s much to be optimistic about for startups selling to national security in 2025, they will still face significant headwinds when entering the defense market. I predict that several NatSec startups will struggle to grow into their inflated valuations, finding it difficult to grow DoD revenue fast enough to secure another round of funding. As a result, I predict that in 2025 at least one high-profile NatSec startup will be forced to raise a “down round,” or accept a discounted acquisition, in order to stay afloat."
https://maggiegray.substack.com/p/2025-predictions-for-natsec-tech
39. "The Russians have no desire to go to war with NATO too, right now, but if they were looking at a low risk, high reward activities on the edge of war that is at least something, then this fits the bill. They will continue to do this until the risk/reward ratio goes negative. They have yet to meet resistance.
It’s amazing that the Russians took this long. These actions may not for now significantly impact the economies of those sending weapons to kill Russians, but they do humiliate the West by conducting sabotage without consequence…just impotent, sternly worded letters and toothless inspections.
My bet is that this will increase until it meets resistance and cost."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/cables-pipelines-and-consequences
The Path to Sovereignty is the Path to Freedom: Learning from Resavager
I care alot about freedom and personal sovereignty. I write a lot about independence and the importance of being financially independent so you can do whatever you want (without hurting others) and having resources to help your friends, family and greater community. To be able to put your weight against a cause or mission that is really important to you, and make a significant impact. Hopefully positive. Basically to be a person of consequence.
I love reading Resavager, despite the somewhat racist & white supremacist tone, he writes beautifully and this next passage on sovereignty is no different.
“There are many paths to sovereignty today. War, which is the purpose of the state, continues to grow more complex. The first suggestion is to seek power and skills through military service. There are many perks that will get you ahead of the mass in taking this route. Ignore the hysteria about joining the military if you want to make something of your life is my suggestion. The military opens doors that otherwise would be closed to you.
For others, maybe it’s not possible or feasible. There are still ways. As you can see, our military is controlled by politicians, not warriors. Seek out power and influence in government. Acquire skills necessary for modern militaries today like logistics or arms manufacturing. Invest in those type of companies. Create powerful companies. Acquire wealth to fund your own projects. I can go on, but you can let your mind wander. Set your sights onwards and upwards. This is the way of sovereign men.
What does it mean to be sovereign? It means you see yourself as a player in the great game. You stopped being an NPC. Your decisions will affect the balance of power in the world. If you truly care about this idea of freedom, you make yourself sovereign. Anything less is still slavery. What can you do to make yourself a player? If not a player, at least closer to one? What can you do set up your family and sons for such work? Our life upon this earth IS warfare. That will end as soon as mankind does.”
(Source: https://resavager.com/p/your-heritage-is-rebellion)
Food for thought. If you aren’t working toward personal sovereignty, what are you really doing?
Get healthy, get smart, get strong (via training and martial arts) and get rich. Have kids. Have a mission. Help others. There is nothing else that matters in life.
Lioness: The Thin Line Between Chaos & Order
Taylor Sheridan is the hardest working man in television. A man responsible for showing all of us how the world truly works through his shows: Yellowstone, 1923, 1883, Mayor of Kingstown, Tulsa King, and Landman. I especially enjoy Special Ops: Lioness, a show about a secret group of CIA agents, quietly and not so quietly, protecting us from the bad guys out there.
In season 2, there was an incredible comment that one of the veteran agents said to a newbie.
“You see some of the things I’ve seen, do some of the things I’ve done, in order to learn that the world is this close (showing a half inch with her fingers) to chaos at all times. 5% of people are saints, 5% are evil, in their soul, stone evil. The other 90, they’re just sheep. They will follow whoever has the upper hand.
That is what we fight for. There is no winning, there is just the upper hand.”
Damn. This was the world we have always been in. But especially in this new emerging multipolar world, this is becoming more obvious and clear. We are up against near peer challengers. It’s a literal arms race, where there is no moat, and your edge does not last for long. It’s going to be an endless competition.
This is going to be life at the individual level, company/organizational level, country level and even between economic/military blocs. Buckle up everyone, it’s going to be a wild ride for the rest of the roaring 2020s.
Josh Clemens writes in his excellent article: “Rise of the Dutch Republics”:
“When hegemony is broken, conflict returns. At worst, the strong take what they can and the weak suffer what they must. At best, innovation returns. When there is no dominant power to ensure peace, there is also no bureaucracy to ensure stagnation. No global hall monitor. The same environment that produced Sparta and Athens––one of iteration and competition––is allowed to flourish.
Hegemony brings peace, competition brings innovation.
If America slips from total hegemon to standard first power, we’ll see a much more dynamic global environment. Ideally, the US will rise to the challenge and become more competitive as well. Decentralized currency means small network states can operate with a globally valid currency––no confederate dollars. Startup founders are now using LLMs to run companies with 2 people instead of 20. The same may be true of countries.
Athens held total hegemony for 67 years. The United States has enjoyed the same for 79 years. Now a challenge to American hegemony paired with advances in tech set the stage for the rise of smaller, agile nation states and organizations to compete.” (Source: https://americanreformer.org/2024/06/rise-of-the-dutch-republics/)
I expect there will be more change on the economic, military, technological and geopolitical aspects of the world. That means for anyone looking for stability, you are probably going to be VERY disappointed. For a Taurus and fixed sign individual, I am a planner and hate change and unpredictability.
So to properly manage myself, I have to over-prepare to deal with the volatility. I try to manage my cost structure carefully and keep as much cash & liquidity as reasonable. This allows me to breathe and think clearly.
I also aim to keep my calendar as light as possible, so I have time to think and can adjust schedules for the inevitable emergencies in life. An overbooked schedule leads to undue stress. Remember real work does not always look like work. The best ideas and insights come at the most unexpected times, free time.
Struggle and stress build men as I’ve learned from all the greats. That is also why my focus on mental resilience and physical fitness (personal trainer and fight training) will reap major rewards. This is the only way to stay in the game to take on all the inevitable opportunities that will appear in all this change. “Chaos is a ladder” as was famously said in Game of Thrones.
Be Like Bamboo: Making Your Moves in Shadows and Silence
I learned that Bamboo, the famous and incredibly strong Asian plant, actually grows for as much as 5 years underground, requiring continually daily fertilizer and water everyday. But once it breaks ground it actually grows 90 feet tall in 5 weeks.
It made me think about our own personal growth. You hear a lot about building in public or letting everyone around you know about your goals. But in reality when you are first starting off and you have no idea what you are doing, it’s better to be just like bamboo.
Make your moves underground, quietly as you explore and experiment. You have no idea what will work for you so it’s good to play around, trying new things, pushing and investing in yourself and not get locked into anything. It’s why so many startups work in stealth mode.
However, once you do have some clear direction and start getting some traction, being open and public with your goals do help. I recommend for personal growth sharing your specific goals with a close friend and providing them some cash or check to send to an organization you hate if you don’t hit them by a certain time and date. A good tip I learned via Tim Ferriss.
For startup founders, this is also why I recommend sharing with their investors their key milestones and doing at minimum monthly updates.
In both cases, that visibility and accountability forces you to execute. And helps keep you out of eventually lethargy that seems to engulf you at times. It's a key part of keeping that forward momentum.
But before that all happens, it’s usually better to work quietly and quickly. Get some learnings, build yourself up and get some strength before you move the spotlight on yourself. Be like bamboo. Do the hard work, build your foundation and prepare yourself for the crazy growth that will come.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 12th, 2025
"Friendship is the only cement that will ever hold the world together"-Woodrow Wilson
I've enjoyed Mick Ryan's books, masterclass on military thinking and what wars will look like in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYAE2jmD-bE
2. The new world of espionage in this new more chaotic world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn6a4_OjhUM
3. Important discussion on the scary & possible scenario of Russia invading the Baltics in the future. More than possible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZWMkRWx53c
4. For anyone who is interested in buying a business (SMB or online) and building wealth. Codie Sanchez is the real deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZraBHTmZK98&t=862s
5. "So, you are witnessing a dramatic unfolding of history much like the collapse of the Soviet controlled Eastern Europe in the 1989-90 years. Assad’s flight is reminiscent of that of Nicolae Ceaușescu, once perceived to be invincible leaders, backed up by powerful regional players, too hard for the West to topple.
The Hamas attack on Israel however initiated an unexpected chain of events that revealed an all too familiar historical pattern: tyrants eventually fall and when they fall they fall hard. For now, for this brief moment, let’s celebrate the exit of the butcher of Damascus and hope there is a better future for Syria, its people and the entire region."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/assads-end
6. "For Türkiye the success of the HTS operation brings numerous benefits aside from offering the prospect of refugee returns and boxing in the YPG. On the diplomatic front, the succesful push by the HTS, and recognition that Türkiye has leverage over HTS, has made Türkiye perhaps the dominant external power in Syria - it could be argued therein with Israel (Israel might control the skies, but Türkiye seems to have more influence at this stage on the ground)."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkiye-syria-and-macro
7. "Here is how FAEM works. First let’s talk about the power of human-in-the-loop. We loved the HITL business model in previous years because it gives humans some final oversight of AI outputs, and helps collect more proprietary data for model training from the human input. The problem with it though, is it limits scalability and can sometimes lose much of the benefit of automation.
FAEM is a business model that takes less and less human-in-the-loop over time. It starts with an AI tool that needs some customized inputs. Let’s say it's an image generation tool that needs a text prompt. It turns out some people are better at prompts than others, so a little over a year ago we started seeing things like prompt marketplaces. Instead of writing your own prompt, you could find prompts other people had written and put those into the tool as-is, or with your own tweaks."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/faem-my-favorite-ai-business-model
8. "I think Sheridan’s story is an extreme example of Parkinson’s Law, the famous adage that work will expand to fill whatever time is allocated to the task no matter the complexity or scope (the canonical example is handing in a college term paper: no matter what day a paper is assigned, you will magically do 95% of the work the evening before it is due).
In 2010, Sheridan left Sons of Anarchy over a contract dispute and decided that acting wasn’t his calling. But his wife was pregnant and he desperately needed work to support a new family. One of the most pressing deadlines you can have is “make money for my future child”. Sheridan credits this obligation with motivating his career change and getting those first few film scripts out the door.
Following his film work, Sheridan developed the hit TV show Yellowstone and set himself up to cruise into semi-retirement. But he’s since made six other shows and a major reason is that he created new pressures and deadlines for himself. How? By buying the $350m Four Sixes (6666) ranch in Texas. To finance the purchase, he struck a $200 million multi-show deal with Paramount. That’s a lot more deadlines (and content for our eyeballs)."
https://www.readtrung.com/p/taylor-sheridans-extreme-productivity
9. 5 months old but this is a sobering discussion on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. War of attrition and unfortunately Russia has the edge here. But UAF holding on, god bless them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8wB_5LR6d4
10. This is a fascinating conversation with a VC investor at the top of their game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3auPzwkZlak
11. Some background, If you want to understand what is going on Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFu2kk8Kd0E&t=11s
12. "Turkey is now the dominant external force in Syria, perhaps with Israel acting without, and this gives Turkey leverage with other global powers, in particular with Russia, the U.S., and Iran."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/syria-winners-and-losers
13. Unbelievably educational and enlightening conversation on American politics and how government works (or does not).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xz8i90Hp2A
14. Building Holding Cos are the thing these days. Good to hear from someone who has done this well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJcrYRGRMmc
15. Understanding the situation in Georgia. Wish Russia would leave them alone. Possible EU & Turkey intervention? Geopolitics is getting complicated.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz6_TAh4ZJs
16. Good tips for most foreign startup founders who are visiting San Francisco.
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/10-tips-for-canadian-founders-going-to-san-francisco
17. Helpful to understand the geopolitical situation in Syria. Turkey & Israel are the winners here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llCrHnW9P4o
18. "We live in an era when public confidence in political leaders and in the government structures that support them has dropped to floor level, and is still going down. There are a number of different ways of dating public recognition of the utter uselessness of the western political class in different countries. The non-reaction to the financial crisis of 2008 is one. In Britain, the tragicomic self-harming episode of the Brexit negotiations was a key moment perhaps, in France the non-Presidency of François Hollande (2012-17) following the cheaply sordid reign of Sarkozy (2007-12).
But in any event, no western political system was left standing after the catastrophic mishandling of the Covid crisis, and of the crisis in Ukraine that followed. So it seems evident that we are governed by imbeciles, doesn’t it, and that those imbeciles have hollowed out and destroyed the capacity of the states that support them in office?
A properly functioning system requires a careful balance between restraining the desires of the political class to do things that are illegal or impossible on the one hand, and preventing elected governments from carrying out their mandates on the other. Recently, the balance has shifted in the direction of the politicians, essentially through the politicisation of higher level government jobs, and the increasing influence in all countries of "advisers", whose political future depends on that of their boss.
However, especially in the more sensitive areas of government—defence, foreign policy, intelligence, law and order—this runs into a powerful sense of inertia, and often a belief that long-term professionals know what they are doing, and would like to be left alone to do it. This is inevitable: if you have been reading diplomatic telegrams and intelligence reports about a crisis for months or even years about a crisis in a country where you were once stationed, you are bound to consider yourself an expert, not least because you have access to sources that others don't.
It's a small step, though, from that certainty to a kind of arrogance where you resist attempts to reach other conclusions or do things differently. This is the essence of the problem which people who talk about "Deep Sates" are trying to describe, and it's pretty much endemic in the government of a complex society."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/in-the-shallows-of-the-deep-state
19. Scary new world of war. Listening to this makes me concerned on whether Europe has fully woken up. But Helsing is leading the charge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxtvQyy7gtE&t=1s
20. A valuable conversation on why Europe is lagging behind by missing waves of technology advancement. Less regulation and more confidence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eevnPUDzNQ8
21. So many great business teardowns on this week’s NIA episode.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOkXPSJ0qyg
22. This is a brave man, going to the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ox9_V-APOGg
23. End of an era: author of the "Revolt of the Public". Describes well the social media and Information Age messiness we live in right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wH-MsQpxo8
24. One of the most underrated Big tech CEOs around. An educational conversation on where AI is going in enterprise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NtsnzRFJ_o&t=1s
25. "The Juvenal Principle: “Give them bread and circuses and they will never revolt.” Roman poet Juvenal believed a “long peace” was as evil as a war. The modern world needs to heed Juvenal's warning against luxury. To let “bread and circuses” sedate us into inaction is to betray our very soul..."
https://oldbooksguy.substack.com/p/10-concepts-from-ancient-rome-that
26. "China both produces a majority of the world’s rare earth minerals and reigns as the undisputed leader in processing them, thanks to its deals with mining operations in resource-rich countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Last week, Beijing countered Biden’s latest round of export controls — which the White House had touted as the strongest yet on China’s access to advanced microchips — by outright banning the export of germanium, gallium and antimony to the U.S.
Those three critical minerals are used in military equipment like night-vision goggles and by American chipmakers. Some analysts pointed out that China specifically chose them as a warning because industry would feel the impact without being crippled.
William Reinsch, who oversaw export policies in the Clinton administration, described the minerals embargo as “shots across the bow,” more aimed at the incoming president than the current one.
China is showing it can “make our lives very inconvenient,” said Reinsch, now a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank."
27. So much to learn from the great men of history with one of the best historians around: Andrew Roberts. Be proud of your past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0aGN_rdnMQ&t=292s
28. Good assessment on the Syria situation by Erik Prince.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHFdBdj5luA
29. This was a great episode of All in Podcast this week. Good fun and educational. The gents at their best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p-vCUB5AA8&t=4280s
30. Important to understand what’s happening in Syria and what a potential future will be for them (and which neighboring powers will be dominant).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBXUxCpGbCA&t=4s
31. On the ground view of what's happening in China.
Faith in the political leadership is dropping. It seems like a race to the bottom of competence of the elites both in the West and China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImWLXaQxN5o
32. "So, as a voracious reader, I’d like to do my part and recommend a selection of books I have found without par in understanding why the 20th Century was such a disaster. Particularly, it must be understood why the West went from being a self-confident, prosperous land of relative liberty to a region divided between outright communists and the worst sort of egalitarian socialists.
That is a big question, but it mainly comes down to the abominable mindsets of our awful rulers. Because it is they and what they thought that is generally to blame, understanding what they did and why is critical. Further, learning about the sort of societies that were functional and successful but-for their civilization-destroying interventions provides clues on how we can escape the grey, decaying world of the present and return to the timeline where the spirit of the Belle Epoque takes us ever higher up the ladder of civilizational excellence."
https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/5-books-to-understand-the-disaster-ca3
33. "The internet has diminished the power of even strong brands, and it’s penetrated the shield of good branding from mediocre products (e.g., Nike, Intel, Target, etc.). A product or service that cannot fulfill its promise to make you smarter or sexier can’t reverse its fortunes by listening to Don Draper. And inventing and refining a great product, fixing its supply chain, and improving your customer service is a lot more work than turning to Midjourney and asking for a new logo.
In my view, Jaguar should not have spent a dollar on marketing before it had an inspiring, ready-to-ship product to show the public.
The companies that have added the most value in the past 10 years barely advertise at all. Netflix now has a market cap of about $400b; in 2014 it was about $21b. Alphabet’s market cap 10 years ago was roughly $390b; today it is $2.5t.
Those companies and others took dollars out of advertising and put them into making better products and getting them to customers faster and cheaper than their competitors."
https://www.profgalloway.com/killing-the-cat
34. "The globalization of VC isn’t slowing down. While 65% of all unicorns minted with a Kauffman Fellow in the cap table are from the US, nearly two-thirds of our report's top ten venture capitalists invest outside the US, consistent with the trend on the Forbes Midas List. The globalization of venture capital will continue on this path.
Further, alternative venture capital models that innovate in their approach to sourcing, investing in, and exiting startups will continue to sprout. Regions outside the US will continue to see the launch of traditional VC firms leading with high conviction and alternative models investing with a different portfolio construction approach. We will also see the nascent growth of secondary vehicles to provide early liquidity to the market. This evolving landscape is great news for entrepreneurs and investors everywhere."
https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/a-new-way-to-measure-vc-success
A Good Death (and Life): Civil War the Movie
I think many of you all have seen the Civil War movie in 2024 by Alex Garland. It's a dystopian near future movie following a group of embedded reporters and photographers crossing America to DC as the literal modern & very violent new civil war in America winds down.
It’s chaotic and atrocity-filled which is tough to take in. As one of the soldiers in a scene says: “No one’s giving us orders, man. Someone’s trying to kill us, we’re trying to kill them.”
If you haven’t, it’s worth watching. If you haven’t and want to, there will be spoilers here.
There is that infamous scene, when they face some armed militia members at a mass burial site, one of the journalists says: “We’re American”, the militia man responds: “What kind of an American are you?” He starts threatening them, even executing their Hong Kong journalist friends until the older journalist mentor Sammy drives their truck over and runs the militia men down. It’s a pretty shocking scene.
But it’s the scene after, the montage after that really stuck with me. We find out their older mentor friend Sammy is shot while rescuing them. The scene is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YMLtx3xA4A. Sammy is bleeding out in the back, looking out at the window while they drive through a burning forest at night. The accompanying song “Breaker’s Roar” by Sturgill Simpson is just perfect. I’ve watched it like 50 times trying to process it.
I don’t know if there ever is a good death, especially from a gunshot wound. But the more I think about it, maybe this is it. Sammy died saving his friends, people he considers family. And during his last hours, he is with them. He has lived a full life and as he drives through the forest fire, you see him smiling. It’s hauntingly beautiful and he reaches out to touch all the sparks outside.
Maybe that’s all a man can ask for. Living a full life. Passing on your hard earned knowledge, protecting your friends and family. Dying while surrounded by beauty. That is not nothing.
These are the lessons I take from this movie. And also more practically, make sure you are fit, well trained and well-armed so no one messes with you!
The Future Face of War: Economic Sanctions, Proxy Wars, Cyber-Infowar, Drones & Special Forces
Most people may not know this but I’m actually a history major and have studied war and geopolitics even as a young kid. It also helps to have visited many parts of the world having been to over 70+ countries at this time. And no surprise I started investing in Defense-tech startups in 2022, after the barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine.
So I had to do a quick ramp up on what’s happening in the military world. I really hate that we are now in a world full of armed conflicts, driven by revanchist rising powers in China-Russia-Iran-North Korea. This when there seems to be a growing weakness in America and the West at large. But it seems to be forced upon us so we better understand and prepare for it. This is a darker post than usual but here we are. It’s a much darker and more scary world we are in compared to the one we lived in before 2020.
Ukraine is the template for the future of war for the USA, as well the Iranian driven shenanigans in the Middle East with their support of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. The most recent success of Turkey in toppling Assad in Syria is the most successful example of this. I think China is watching this closely too.
No more American troops on the ground (that we know of). These will be proxy war: picking sides, preferably one with a strong military cadre and saturating them with key weaponry like infantry portable anti-tank and anti-air missiles, artillery, ammo, long range missiles or whatever is most suited to win on the battlefield. This and training like what NATO forces have been doing with the plucky Ukrainian armed forces since 2014. There will be no American troops on the ground (publicly, more on this below) as the public is weary of war after the debacle in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It will be a Cyber-Info War, using America’s advanced Satellites & Signals Intelligence & Targeting. One clear example are the decapitation operations aka Headhunting missions. Identifying and killing groups of generals & officers or major logistical targets or major concentrations of arms and weapons. This has happened continually throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKhLuXh_4MM
Widespread use of drones. Even drone swarms. These are spotting technology to actual kill missions with Bayraktar TB2 & Ghost Phoenix & Switchblade 2 kamikaze drones. You really can’t hide anymore due to the incredible ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capabilities most militaries have via drones (and satellites) and mass movement of troops will be discovered and hit with artillery.
Special Forces on the ground: You can’t tell me US SOF, CIA SAD or Polish GROM are not on the front lines. But the Ukrainian SOF has been critical in gutting Russian supply chains in Ukraine and Russia proper itself. Lots of mysterious fires happening in factories, key railway lines and arms depots on the front and in Russia itself.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dkNAcdBKFI
These measures would all be accompanied by financial Sanctions: Most of the world is still reliant on the US Dollar which is the plumbing of the world’s financial system. Many countries are also reliant on our tooling & machinery, advanced technology like microchips and general know-how. Cutting this off obviously makes sense as the more you can damage the enemy’s economy the less capable they can feed their war machine.
So why should you care? As I have said many times before, as we go into a deglobalized and multipolar world, there will sadly be more war. Some hot, some cold or more likely hybrid. But war is coming. This is the regular reminder from Trotsky “You might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”You might not like this but it does not make it less true. So it helps to know what form it will take as war will impact all of us in some way.
It’s Still A Great Time to Be Alive: Paul Han & Youtube Influencer Hustle
I’m always looking for new sources of wisdom and inspiration. Youtube has been a massive boon here. I stumbled upon a young 21 year old Korean-Canadian Youtuber named Paul Han: https://www.youtube.com/@PaulHan23. He and his older brother, who live at home with their parents, are in the process of building an ecommerce empire. He has decided to document his day to day for everyone.
He shares everything, the good and the bad and he admits he is just starting off and not quite made it yet to his goal of a 10 figure ecommerce business.
What I also like about Paul Han is that he shows everything and provides a good model for all young men. He gets up around 4 am in the morning, does the cold ice bath, listens to inspirational podcasts and interviews for motivation. He works out at the gym with his brother and then spends a few hours coordinating with his team. He reads a bit and then does 3-4 hours deep work, working on new ads, going through analytics. Chills/rests, followed by another 3-4 hours of deep work. He reads and then goes to bed, ready to do it all again the next day.
It’s inspiring and a reminder that these kinds of opportunities just did not exist when I was growing up. Entrepreneurship just wasn’t a thing back in the 90s in Canada. The internet was just coming out to the Universities. There were no examples of folks like Paul for young ambitious kids to emulate. Not that I have much to complain about at the moment, but I probably could have done with a bit more of this kind of inspiration growing up.
Now there are literally thousands of examples. There are tons of new tools and platforms to leverage. So many kinds of opportunities: ecommerce, dropshipping, selling digital courses, building an ad agency, real estate investing, commodity, crypto and stock trading. There are so many courses to take and masterminds to join so you can learn and take advantage of the multitude of opportunities out there. You are literally one search away from whatever it is you want to learn and master. The upside for an ambitious and hardworking young person is absolutely infinite.
There is much to absorb from Paul Han’s videos and shows the zeitgeist of our time. It’s the “Age of Individuals” as Tai Lopez calls it when ambitious people, young and old are able to leverage all the incredible tools available to us like Shopify, the various ad platforms on Facebook or Google or Tiktok, using the best copywriting tactics and aided by virtual assistants and AI tools. All to build a life they want. Being their own boss and incorporating goals of making money, while enjoying travel, freedom, health and fitness.
Another reminder that it’s a great time to be alive. Make sure you take advantage of all the opportunities available to craft the life you want for you and your family. The future is bright for those who are ready to do the work.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 5th, 2025
“You can’t use up creativity. The more you use, the more you have.” – Maya Angelou
"Black Label Logic clearly liked writing. He did it for 6 years. He published hundreds of articles and made countless podcasts.
And then he shut down and disappeared because his life got busier, he had to focus on his job, and his art wasn’t making enough money for it to be worth his time.
If you are any kind of an artist – writer, podcaster, YouTuber, creator, etc., learn from the mistake of Carl Adaugeo and his defunct blog Black Label Logic.
MONETIZE YOUR WORK. Do not be “above” making money. Do not act like selling is “bad”.
Earn a living from your art and do it virtuously. Create products and sell them at a decently high price point.
Make them so good that you can put your heart and soul into selling them. Make them so good that the customer is DELIGHTED when he buys them.
If you can do that you will stand the test of time. You will never shut down."
https://lifemathmoney.com/black-label-logic/
2. "There are several tech “strategies” we have seen successfully deployed to DoD. The first includes those creating entirely new technologies for defense use, like Anduril, which pioneers systems that require significant customer education and high R&D costs but establish deep tech moats and long-term influence over requirements. These startups must navigate a fine line of convincing the DoD to change how they operate in order to take advantage of modern technology opportunities. However, this path has the benefit of establishing a unique and defensible market position, typically resulting in the aforementioned PoRs.
Another strategy involves startups improving existing DoD technologies by reducing costs, improving usability, or expanding scalability. Companies like Apex Space and Albedo Space exemplify this strategy by refining satellite technology – satellite bus manufacturing and 10cm earth observation imagery respectively. The DoD already has access to satellite bus manufacturing technology and 10cm earth observation imagery, but the current state of the art for both technologies are extremely expensive and inefficient. While these startups avoid the need for customer education, they face the challenge of displacing entrenched vendors and risk competing primarily on price, requiring strong execution and process advantages.
The third strategy adapts private sector technologies for DoD use. For example, C3.AI developed data analytics products for the DoD, leveraging technology that had already demonstrated successfully in commercial applications. These startups focus on integration and execution moats rather than technical innovation, as their value lies in adapting existing tools to meet specific defense needs."
https://maggiegray.substack.com/p/mission-driven-metrics-a-framework
3. A true American hero here. He provides a good perspective on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnk8GQGkAjM
4. I've always enjoyed my time in Belgrade and Serbia in general. Been way too long since I've been back. Great food, nice people and amazing nightlife.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyEzseB_VSs
5. LOVE Tbilisi. Yes, some big protests going on right now against the Russian influenced government. But it's a lovely and wonderful place. Can't wait to return there soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmcIz-MhQ8g
6. Istanbul, what a grand city. The restaurant shown here Nisantsi Baskose is excellent. Been there a few times myself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5H01enlHDM
7. Always wanted to visit Bogota, and Colombia the country in general. One day. Enjoying this video series.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T_LFhCYsDc
8. Frightening conversation but it's very clear China is the biggest threat to the West. And CCP have learned that the Western politicians are weak & cowardly from their haphazard approach to supporting Ukraine against Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__tFFlZKoMM
9. "If you aren’t sensing a theme here yet, let me make it explicit: China used the power of government subsidies to dominate the entire manufacturing world in 25 years. They may be smart. They may be hardworking. But the main reason they won was INSANE government subsidies that would give your favorite libertarian cold sweats.
Trump and JD Vance claim to want to bring back American manufacturing. Some of their advisors also claim to want small government. Unfortunately, this problem (imo) is ONLY solved by an extreme partnership between the government and private industry."
https://carriednointerest.substack.com/p/bringing-back-american-manufacturing
10. "The science on icy soaks is a bit murky. But you could still get something out of cold plunging—just maybe for a different reason than you think. “Lacking physiological evidence of the purported benefits, many of the positive effects associated with cold water immersion can be concluded to in part [be] due to a placebo effect,” Horan says. Meaning: If you think you’re less sore or stiff because you cold plunged, you’ll actually feel less sore and less stiff—and then you may be more likely to hit the gym and go at it again.
So the timing of your cold plunge could largely depend on what feels good for you, with the caveats being that you’ll want to let your body warm up if you’re plunging pre-workout, and you might undercut some muscular adaptations if you’re plunging after a resistance workout."
https://www.gq.com/story/cold-plunge-before-or-after-workout
11. "You have to understand – if you take entitlement and shit from people, more of it will be given to you.
Sometimes you need to show people their place. Especially people who have an air of unearned superiority who think they can say anything they want.
You need to have some a-shole in you."
https://lifemathmoney.com/sometimes-you-have-to-show-people-their-place/
12. "The reality is that, in many respects, Merkel paved the way to today’s crisis. Her advocacy for stringent austerity measures, implemented both across Europe and within Germany after the 2008 financial crisis, ushered in over a decade of stagnation and underinvestment. Her policies left Germany’s infrastructure — bridges, roads and railways — to crumble; her doubling down on Germany’s neo-mercantilist, export-driven economic model, especially during the euro crisis, stifled internal demand by compressing wages and encouraging precarious employment, while leaving the economy overly dependent on exports.
By pursuing an industrial policy that emphasised traditional manufacturing sectors — automobiles, heavy industry and mechanical parts — she left Germany lagging in the high-tech revolution. By phasing out nuclear energy, she deprived the country of a clean and cost-effective energy source. By opening the door to over a million asylum seekers, she created serious challenges in social cohesion and public safety. By embracing a paternalistic and TINA-driven approach to politics, exemplified in her concept of “market-conforming democracy”, she starved the German democratic discourse."
https://unherd.com/2024/11/angela-merkel-architect-of-german-decline/
13. "To me, this is just more schizophrenic / bi-polar market activity than any real indications of any structural issues. The Brazilian right absolutely hates Lula and is negative no matter what the reality is. Bolsonaro left the Lula government with increasing deficits, which the Lula government has actually been trying to reverse. Basically, try as I might, I can't really find anything truly wrong with Brazil, especially when measured on the same standard that other countries are. The trading action seems to come entirely down to ridiculous telenovela drama.
Buying Brazil worked out well for us in late 2022 / early 2023. I dare say it may be that time again. Any rally in EWZ should be hugely positive for Brazilian names like Vale and Braskem - names which I am now overweight - especially considering Vale is looking at big export increases in iron next year and Braskem is forecasting a return to positive FCF for 2025."
https://calvinfroedge.com/que-viva-b/
14. "Everyone goes to war with an idea of how they can win, and a few brilliant exceptions manage to pull it off. But not every campaign is France 1940. Even the best strategists face serious setbacks, and rarely end up winning precisely as they anticipated. The measure of strategic ability is not just the brilliance of the plan, but the ability to adapt to the unexpected. Older writers were correct: it is better to think of strategy as an action, not an idea."
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/is-strategy-just-a-theory-of-victory
15. Russia's ongoing grey war against the west. The unfortunately effective unit at their forefront of this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt6_9m5qXdU
16. Learning about this Agentic AI thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdfxRlMpxPg
17. "The first step to recovery is to recognize that one has a problem, and in the case of the United States foreign policy elite we seem no longer able to craft a workable strategy, operationalize and execute it to reach the proclaimed objectives.
We need to ask ourselves a simple question: Why has the United States been routinely unable to win wars over the past three decades (the Desert Storm battle to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait a notable exception)—not in the sense of breaking the adversary’s military and destroying its government, but when it comes to achieving the strategic objectives we set out to accomplish? Is it that we no longer have the resources to implement what we set out to do?
Or perhaps it is that what increasingly passes for strategy is more reminiscent of a policy conversation in a self-contained echo chamber, rather than being grounded in the realities of the Darwinian ecosystem we call international relations? I submit that it is the latter, and here is why."
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/09/27/a_crisis_of_competence_1061277.html
18. Angola in play and shows the critical importance of minerals and natural resources in the new multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3b3FBvEB30
19. Always look at diversifying and it's super interesting. Watch capital flows.
This is a solid conversation on investing in the emerging markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jU2DZiCIGE
20. I truly hope Zeihan is right here. He seems way too confident that we can replace metal and mineral processing from China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRT5MJBcd-c
21. Disturbing discussion on the surveillance and disinformation industry that operates in America and around the world. I believe probably 60-70% of this, which is frightening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrJhQpvlkLA
22. Erik Prince always gives a cold & sober assessment of geopolitical events.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqusNtLF32s
23. "Bryce Roberts of Indie VC first highlighted the trend of “one-and-done” rounds back in 2017. Back then, it was something of a rarity, but these days a considerable number of founders are intentionally pursuing that path. At a broader level, the best founders today are raising fewer rounds with less dilution and/or skipping rounds altogether.
And many VCs are struggling to come to terms with this.
Firms with mediocre returns that don’t have much of a differentiator or positioning beyond “solid, inoffensive fund that’s a good fallback if you can’t raise from a top tier VC” are struggling to raise new funds or closing up shop entirely. Many individual investors who are later in their careers or who don’t have the inclination to reinvent themselves are opting out of venture capital as a career. Others who are refusing to adapt are being managed out by their firms."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/venture-capitals-changing-of-the-guard
24. "In the year 2000, the United States and its allies in Asia, Europe, and Latin America accounted for the overwhelming majority of global industrial production, with China at just 6% even after two decades of rapid growth. Just thirty year later, UNIDO projects that China will account for 45% of all global manufacturing, singlehandedly matching or outmatching the U.S. and all of its allies.
This is a level of manufacturing dominance by a single country seen only twice before in world history — by the UK at the start of the Industrial Revolution, and by the U.S. just after World War 2. It means that in an extended war of production, there is no guarantee that the entire world united could defeat China alone.
That is a very dangerous and unstable situation. If it comes to pass, it will mean that China is basically free to start any conventional conflict it wants, without worrying that it will be ganged up on — because there will be no possible gang big enough to beat it. The only thing they’ll have to fear is nuclear weapons.
China’s leaders know this very well, of course, which is why they are unleashing a massive and unprecedented amount of industrial policy spending — in the form of cheap bank loans, tax credits, and direct subsidies — to raise production in militarily useful manufacturing industries like autos, batteries, electronics, chemicals, ships, aircraft, drones, and foundational semiconductors. This doesn’t just raise Chinese production — it also creates a flood of overcapacity that spills out into global markets and forces American, European, Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese companies out of the market.
By creating overcapacity, China is forcibly deindustrializing every single one of its geopolitical rivals. Yes, this reduces profit for Chinese companies, but profit is not the goal of war.
America’s most economically important allies — Germany and Japan — are bearing the brunt of China’s most recent industrial assault.
Except then a war comes, and suddenly you find that B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps aren’t very useful for defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been years before the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, it’s a war in and of itself."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now
25. "The only point of money is to improve your life, make sure you know what the plan is. House, car, whatever it is. Do not forget the point of the digits on a screen
Do not kill your health or personal life. You are allowed to catch the mania a bit, but giving up your health isn’t worth it for the extra 10% returns you “could have made”. Doesn’t make any sense and you’ll pay for it dearly on the come down during the next bear market (we don’t plan on riding that one down)
Rule #1 - No Round Numbers: On the paid side we’ve walked through tons of personal examples of when we’d recommend taking money off the table. In the free side it’s easier to explain it like this: No round numbers.
If you’re young and the number is $1M? Guess what you’ll probably hit $876,000 or something close and then we have the massive correction.
If your number is $5M? Probably you hit $4,678,923 and then suddenly a massive -70% correction. So on and so forth."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/mental-health-and-lady-luck-during
26. "The core question in this scenario is what portion of the returns in seed investing will come from the proven, repeat founders who the multi-stage funds are likely to attract. If you believe 75% or more of the future returns in seed will come from this population, there is a strong argument that the multi-stage funds will dominate seed.
The remaining alpha available to seed specialist firms is too small to support the number of seed-focused firms in the market today. I have spoken with institutional LPs who do believe multi-stage funds will capture enough of the alpha in seed to obviate the need to focus on dedicated seed-only managers. I would not describe this as a consensus opinion, but it is one that I’ve heard enough times to know that it is a view held by some who allocate capital to private equity and venture. I do not think that 75% of the best opportunities in seed will come from that pool of founders, but I also believe proven, repeat founders will make a meaningful contribution to overall seed returns.
I have spoken to many smaller, sub $200 million fund managers with strong opinions about how good multi-stage funds will be at seed investing. While we can argue about how successful these larger firms will be, there is no argument about whether they will be run; LPs have already voted with their dollars, and this will happen."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/three-future-states-of-the-early
27. "I have my own three-pronged theory about why crypto is one of the fastest-growing networks in human history.
Government Capture – Big business, big tech, big pharma, big military, and big [Fill in the Blank] have used their wealth and power to capture most large governments and economic blocs. While the standard of living and lifespan gains have been rapid and consistent since the end of WW2, they have slowed for the 90% of the population that owns very few financial assets and ultimately possesses little to no political agency. Decentralization is the antidote to a dystopian concentration of wealth and power.
Magical Tech – The Bitcoin blockchain and the plethora of blockchains that spawned in its wake are pieces of magical new technology. From an innocuous beginning, Bitcoin, at least, has proven to be one of the most battle-tested monetary systems. There is an almost $2 trillion bug bounty in the form of Bitcoins that can be double-spent for anyone who can hack the network.
Greed – The rise of the fiat and energy value of cryptos that power blockchains or the tokens created via these blockchains made users rich. The riches of the crypto cohort were on display this November during the US election. The US, like most other nation-states, features a pay-for-play political system. The crypto banditos were one of the largest contributors to political candidates of any industry, which resulted in wins for pro-crypto candidates. Crypto voters were able to shower largesse upon political campaigns because Bitcoin is the fastest-growing asset in human history."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-cure
28. Always a good episode on what’s up in cultural businesses and tech at the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxluK76HuEE&t=55s
29. Ed Sims and Boldstart VC has crushed it at seed stage. They know and choose the specific game they want to play (inception rounds), and not try to be something they aren't. Something we can all learn from.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSPpQFEmHX8
30. Hard truth: China has always been an aggressive, expansive power since the beginning of their history. We the West are in Cold War 2 with the CCP.
Great discussion with someone who actually understands China.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TR8kn92HNRc
31. "To summarize: These things are important for defense applications, especially electronic warfare and communications. Perhaps China is cutting us off from them to show force, leverage in future negotiations, or because they rightly want to kneecap us the way we kneecap them. It’s a move that we should respect and should have expected.
Additionally, although we're not going to run out tomorrow, we need to get ready and it’s frankly a little surprising to me that we’re not already moving forward on initiatives to start Gallium mining. Maybe there are and it’s not public, but I am skeptical.
We should take this whole thing as a “learning moment”: Free trade is a national security risk when you’re obtaining a critical component from your adversaries. Overregulation killed an industry, one of many, and we now have to make the right decisions, not just for Gallium, for America’s industrial and mining base as a whole."
https://www.glinert.co/p/china-just-kicked-us-in-the-shins
32. Some good investigative work here. Definitely Ukrainian & Turkish intelligence and special ops involved here in Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCGEWrgX54c
33. Jeff Bezos, some of the clearest thinking and communications around. "We are in multiple golden ages at once"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s71nJQqzYRQ&t=4s
34. "Unlike the classic apex predator, which evolves alongside its prey, a nonnative apex predator arrives with such disruptive force that instead of dominating an ecosystem they transform it. Legacy media looks like Florida 30 years after the arrival of the Burmese python. A nonnative apex predator (digital) is out-hunting and out-reproducing the previous apex predator (legacy media).
An apex predator released into the wild has reproduced asexually, doesn’t need distribution partners, and is devouring the ecosystem. Since launching its original content business in 2012, Netflix’s market cap has increased 7,337%. This means the industry is booming for all involved, no? The dominant means of production for scripted television is Netflix, which has flexed this muscle to reshape the flows of value. Specifically, it has reduced production costs, while massively investing to create an explosion in the amount of content, transferring value from all parts of the ecosystem to the company’s shareholders and subscribers. If you live in L.A., you’ve likely given 4 stars to a former producer of a reality-TV series.
There are 180,000 members of SAG-AFTRA, and last year 86% of them didn’t qualify for health insurance, as they made less than $26k. Constant reminders from CNBC re the market touching new highs masks a deeper issue: As in the future described by William Gibson, the future/prosperity of media is here, just not evenly distributed. AI, Netflix, and the Big Tech platforms are eating everything, and they have few, if any, predators. The deer and alligators (industry workers) have no means of defense, because they’ve never encountered this species/technology before. The result is an atmosphere of anxiety and fear. These emotions are common sense."
https://www.profgalloway.com/media-consolidation/
35. Enjoyed this week's episode with two special guests: Joe Lonsdale & Gavin Baker. Heartened by the convo on AI, Defensetech and rare earths. But we got a lot of work to do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2xfW3hgxb4
36. "While it’s popular to say, “Follow your passion,” it’s better for potential entrepreneurs to develop an eye for how the world is evolving. Becoming a student of what’s changing and why will lead to opportunities."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/07/the-unknown-entrepreneur-arc/
37. What an interview. Javier Milei, responsible for the turnaround of Argentina. The battle needs to be fought at both the economic and cultural level. Some lessons to be learned here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk
38. An excellent discussion with one of the top VC investors in Europe with an incredible investing track record. Valuable conversation on the art of venture investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9MK3n9m7SM
39. Quite an interesting conversation on how and what Western analysts got wrong on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Full Benefit: Embrace Challenges
I learned this term “Full Benefit” from some ex-Navy SEAL friends a while ago but had forgotten it. It got resurfaced on Linkedin by Teddy Mitrosilis and it was an excellent reminder. Here it is below.
“Navy SEALs have a saying.
When something sucks, they say:
"FULL BENEFIT"
It’s an instant mindset shift.
• Lose an important customer?
• Hiking and it starts pouring rain?
• Driving and your car breaks down?
• Working on a project and lost a draft?
• Didn't get the job opportunity you want?
Full Benefit.
***
Lesson: Adversity is an opportunity
The message is simple.
Every adversity is an opportunity.
• To grow
• To learn
• To evolve
• To get stronger
• To become better
These moments forge us if we let them.
The next time you're facing something hard, welcome it.
Work through the process.
Learn the lessons.
Reap the full benefit.”
No wonder the Navy SEALS are so bad ass.
Man, I so wish I had understood this earlier in my life and career. I wish everyone heard and understood this. The world would not be the disastrous mess it is now. But alas, better late than never. So remember, when you meet the inevitable challenge or problem in life, just say to yourself “Full benefit” and reset your mindset to tackle it head on.
Kingdom of Heaven: Our Own Personal Crusade to Find Purpose and Do Right
Kingdom of Heaven is one of the best periodic movies to come out by the always excellent Ridley Scott. It takes place during the Middle Ages across Europe to the Far East right before the 3rd Great crusade. It’s an amazing story of bravery, treachery, honor, duty and war in exotic lands at a grand scale.
Focused around the true life character of Balian of Ibelin, a true knight and exemplar of Chivalry who ends up defending Jerusalem against the noble Muslim knight Saladin and his grand army. He becomes the key man and leader of the Christians.
He has trouble when he first arrives in the near East, he faces off against a Muslim cavalier and is forced to fight and kill him. He ends up capturing his servant but releases him as he will ‘not suffer to have a slave’ even though it’s his right.
Balian is told by the man: “Your qualities will be known among your enemies wherever you meet them.”
The irony is that this servant was apparently a great lord among the Muslims whose army he unknowingly fights and loses to in the future. Captured and expecting to be executed, Balian is released with the answer:
“You reap what you sow. You have heard of this, no?”
Karma. Love it. And life in the long run you do see this happen. If you do good, it will come back to you in some form. It’s certainly something I’ve seen in the last 25 years of my career. Try to treat all people well. You really never know.
Balian is an honorable character. He is noble, he always tries to do the right thing. But he questions whether he is in God’s Grace because he had killed men before. And his friend, Hospitaller monk and knight answers him:
“Holiness is in right action. And courage on behalf of those who cannot defend themselves. And goodness, what God desires is here (points to head) and here (points to heart) and what you decide to do everyday, you will be a good man. Or not.”
I think there is a great lesson here. Most bad and evil done in the world is not from Ill intent but from cowardice. Or doing the expedient thing. Doing the right thing is hard. It’s supposed to be. But you can do right in small ways, every single day as you find your purpose in life. As was said in the movie: “If God does not love you, how could you have done all the things you have done.”