The Iron Law of Human Behavior: Selfishness, Laziness and Incentives
I think in my almost 50 trips around the sun, I think I’ve learned something about society, about people and about business. I started my career in marketing and the key to good marketing is consumer insight. One of the lessons I learned is that you should always assume the customer is lazy, distracted and not a little bit stupid. I don’t think customers are actually stupid but it forces you to simplify and package whatever it is you are selling better. It removes as much friction to the customer understanding and seeing the value. Or that is the theory.
The key to thriving and getting through life successfully is also understanding people around you. Your family, your friends, your business associates, your neighbors and everyone you run into. And how to get along with them.
My mental model is that everyone is in their own world, dealing with their own problems. The excellent Twitter account @Evilsaint said: “Humans are selfish because life is hard. If you’ve never been the selfish type, it’s because life has never been hard.” There is something to this.
I’m a believer in that you give more than you get and I also believe the karma/universe gives back if you do well for others. It is an old Silicon Valley ethos which I will follow to the end.
But at base level, it’s just better to assume that people are always looking out for themselves because that is just how we humans are wired. We humans are also wired to conserve energy which basically drives people to be lazy and not think too much on anything. Thinking burns a surprisingly large amount of calories.
This is where incentives come in. In all my business and not a few personal dealings, I always try to understand “What’s In it for them”. And if we do want to do anything it has to be win-win and have clear incentives for them, and for me to make it work. I’ve stated many times about being long term greedy. This is true.
But this is also a form of laziness, in a good way I would say. I don’t want to waste time on short term things these days. So always try to understand incentives and how to make them work for both sides. You have to make sure your interests are aligned. Otherwise you are wasting your time and energy, something people don’t have much of these days. If you do this, you can increase the odds of success for any relationship, alliance or cooperation.
The Problem with Rage: My Ongoing Process of Anger Management
I think a big part of my momentum in my career and life is due to the massive chip on my shoulder. I’ve considered it an asset for a long time. This rage and anger to prove people wrong by winning. This was the spur to the incredible investments I made in my career and work. 100+ working hours a week. It works until it does not.
But it’s also been a curse. Seeing red when you are thwarted in your plans, in setbacks and when you feel you are treated unfairly. Or worse, dealing with unethical people or idiots.
Another great insight from my friends at the sci-fi series of Warhammer 40k, Dan Abnett’s “The End and the Death.”
“Rage is a weakness in any true warrior. Rage makes a man rash and clumsy, and it diminishes his skill and technique, no matter how highly trained he is. It sucks away finesse. It dilutes focus. It forces errors and overreach, and steals a man’s precision and discipline.
Rage, and the less of control that comes with it, is a self-inflicted wound.”
You need to be calm in times of crisis. So you can see things clearly. It’s easier to solve problems in this mode.
I am starting to fully understand the old Chekist saying by Felix Dzerzhinsky, who started the predecessor to the KGB: that a real “agent must have a cool head, warm heart and clean hands.” Yes, these were awful people but they were damn effective at what they do.
Warm heart means passion and drive but it needs to be properly channeled. That’s where having a calm and clear mind comes to play. Anger and rage only gets you so far and it’s a tool of the young to take action. But as you get older like me, you have to learn to control this or the blowback on your life and career will threaten all the gains you have made. I speak from painful experience as always.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 31st, 2024
"You have power over your mind – not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength." – Marcus Aurelius
"I fear the war will drag on, its costs will grow, and its political impact in Ukraine or Russia will also increase. By 2025, possibly with Donald Trump in the White House, there will be a question of which belligerent is better able to manage the impact at home (keep the economy going, preserve political unity, manage mobilisation requirements and avoid a collapse of morale in the army) and abroad (coalitions for military aid and sanctions enforcement). This year is unlikely to bring anything besides more war and more destruction."
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2024/02/ukraine-war-second-anniversary-symposium
2. This is absolutely instructive. A must for all B2B founders. Harsh but helpful truths.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMe_FWldQF0&t=751s
3. "Donaldson’s swift rise has been spurred by massive changes in the media landscape where individuals have replaced institutions as the gatekeepers of entertainment and information. He’s proved an adroit Pied Piper, figuring out how to work the YouTube algorithm to hook and keep a crowd. But he’s also disrupting the new ecosystem, showing what’s possible, even far from Hollywood, with a gigantic following.
The ethos of doing things differently, of growing quickly and exponentially, has sparked concern among some about the company’s safety and labor practices. For now, though, the question seems less whether Donaldson will get where he wants to go than where he’s going—what the world he is helping shape will look like.
His sway has grown such that in 2022 he launched a line of snacks, Feastables, that by 2023 was in multiple countries and will have, according to him, $500 million in annual revenue this year. Stars the wattage of Tom Brady and Justin Timberlake now appear in his videos, and the Charlotte Hornets wear a Feastables patch on their shirts. And while he models his career on Steve Jobs, he has a little Melinda French Gates in him too. On a second channel, Beast Philanthropy, he performs outlandish tricks of the charitable sort: rescuing 100 unwanted dogs, giving away 20,000 shoes, helping distribute $30 million worth of food that was going to waste.
In December 2020, he started a food-delivery service, MrBeast Burger. It grew to a reported 1,700 virtual locations and $100 million in total revenue by August 2022, before becoming ensnared in a legal battle. He also has a toy deal and is reportedly on the verge of signing a nine-figure deal with Amazon."
https://time.com/collection/time100-leadership-series/6693255/mrbeast-interview/
4. A good discussion on geopolitics. Net net: the West is lagging behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTsWGUDYkQM
5. "Casinos are unique in their aim. No other industry builds a world designed to maintain a customer’s fantasy so that they continue to partake in an activity that, in the long run, advantages the house. But retailers share at least one common goal with casinos: They want to keep people inside.
“The goal of the retailer is to make sure that they find ways to increase the time we spend in the store, the number of items we see at the store, and end up buying not just what we came in for but ideally a few additional things,”
https://thehustle.co/originals/why-you-almost-never-see-a-clock-at-the-mall
6. "As it turns out, it’s not social media that connects us in the 21st century. It’s ships. Shipping is a $14 trillion-plus industry, and the overwhelming majority of the world’s goods—a colossal 90 percent of them—spend time at sea. Marina believes that shipping is good for humans, as to trade with people around the world is to acquire empathy for them.
“To see them in their places, to see what they need, what they want. It’s globalization.” And with the ramp-up of TMV’s latest fund, it seems to me that Marina, in her steel-bougainvillea way, is currently orchestrating a one-woman overhaul of the entire shipping industry."
https://archive.ph/bN1hG#selection-777.0-789.0
7. This is really cool.
"Ridley, now 33, is a full-time “bikepacker” who has been traveling the world for eight years. He started using bikes to travel in 2015 and has since ridden the lengths of Africa, Asia, Europe, and nearly all of Oceania.
His solo travels started with nights in hostels and traveling by buses and trains. From there, he moved into hitchhiking and camping. Wanting even more flexibility, he began considering cycling. After a few painful trips, it became his vehicle of choice.
“There's times when I'm very grateful to be alone,” Ridley said. “For personal growth, I think traveling solo has enormous value.”
He said traveling alone taught him how to improvise, be comfortable under pressure, and how to deal with people. In terms of security, he finds that personal skills and forming accurate judgments are his “first line of defense” and more useful than knives or pepper spray."
8. "In all three of these instances—podcasting hosting, podcast consumption, and audiobooks consumption—my colleagues and I were told to tread carefully, to explore other avenues, to respect the No Trespassing sign. This advice came from people who had worked in these respective industries for a long time, and whose perspectives were often skewed by their familiarity with the status quo.
Their view: The incumbents have too broad an existing user base, too much brand recognition, and too strong an incentive to defend their strongholds for a challenger to disrupt them.
I can’t help but disagree. I’ve come to learn through first-hand experience that monopolies often serve as the ideal competitor to take on. There are four main reasons why:
-Monopolies have already proven the industry is viable and lucrative
-Monopolies refuse to cannibalize their own dominance
-Monopolies have institutionalized their inefficiencies
-Monopolies have the most to lose from making mistakes, whereas startups have the most to gain"
https://every.to/p/don-t-be-scared-to-take-on-a-monopoly
9. "This is, I think, one of the major reasons for the Diversity Paradox. Whilst in theory the pool of potential recruits has been much widened, in practice the messages sent out by “successful” people today amount to a subliminal incitement to a new generation of would-be sociopaths, focused on narcissistic ego-gratification and the satisfaction of a lust for power and money.
They also discourage many “excellent” people from joining organisation or going into politics, because they judge, quite understandably, that they would not like to work in such an environment, nor are they interested in fighting political battles for more status and even more money. And this applies across the board, irrespective of skin pigmentation, genital arrangements or anything else. Sociopaths are sociopaths, and in general sociopaths are bad managers and bad at their jobs. The only skills they have are those related to personal success. Thus, organisations and political systems fail.
This helps to explain, I think, the terrifying shambles of the western reaction to Ukraine. Western politicians have come to believe not only that narrative control is essential, but also that it is all that is necessary. This worked, more or less, in Afghanistan. But in Ukraine, with western-trained troops being slaughtered and western equipment blown to bits, elites have suddenly realised what Bagehot could have told them: that while narrative control can “impress the many,” you still need instruments of coercion to actually get things done, and the West, of course, now has none.
In effect, organisations of all kinds have essentially returned to the pre nineteenth-century model of predation and parasitism, where the state (and these days private corporations) are there just to be exploited and looted. You choose your career according to the benefits you can expect, and you arrange your professional life to maximise them.
You say and do the right things to secure advancement, and in due course, you cooperate with others in positions of power to loot the system, and pass on. The benefits may be financial, but they may also be those of status and perception, and indeed your first career—in the public sector for example—may be no more than a preparation for a much more lucrative one elsewhere."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/the-diversity-paradox
10. "So nuclear proliferation is happening, and it’s mostly being done by China and its allies. Increasingly, this means that U.S. allies are facing nuclear-capable enemies without nukes of their own. India has nukes to balance Pakistan’s, and Israel has nukes to balance any future Iranian arsenal. But three key U.S. allies are in a very perilous situation right now: Japan, South Korea, and Poland.
So for Japan, South Korea, and possibly Poland, getting nukes is the obvious strategy for dealing with the expansionist empires next door. If these countries went nuclear, it would draw “hard boundaries” past which Xi and Putin could not pass, even if they succeeded in gobbling up Ukraine, Taiwan, and other small nations in the area. Japanese, South Korean, and Polish nukes would freeze the battle lines of Cold War 2, potentially stopping it from turning into World War 3."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/japan-and-south-korea-need-nuclear
11. Solid discussion with LP on evaluating emerging VC fund managers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9YQIaKupR8
12. This was such a good discussion. Not just for investing insights but for life. It came at the right time for me.
https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/62018848/banister-investing-for-a-higher-purpose
13. "Social media may thus create instability in democracies while leaving autocracies untouched.
In other words, the rise of smartphones and social media means that the internet is now a powerful centralizer of both personal information and public discussion, rather than the decentralizing force that the creators of the Web intended it to be. And centralization plays into the hands of those who seek to control every aspect of other people’s lives — i.e., totalitarians.
Most of China’s “sharp power” methods are fundamentally enabled by the smartphone-and-social-media internet — and/or by globalization itself. Manipulation of TikTok, attempted control of Zoom, and social media misinformation campaigns give China a propaganda reach that the USSR could only dream of. The unprecedented surveillance state
China has built — superior to anything the Nazis or Soviets had — relies crucially on smartphones. Meanwhile, a globalized economy makes it much easier for China to order American companies around, to steal technologies, to install its surveillance technology around the globe, and so on.
Liberalism has not yet evolved an effective defense against these methods of control. Our companies, venal and fragmented, are prostrate before China’s economic coercion. Our social media chaos is self-sustaining — it drives political polarization that prevents us from taking steps to rein in the chaos. Our attempts at digital privacy laws so far have been cack-handed and largely ineffectual. Our cybersecurity has been thoroughly penetrated.
Totalitarians don’t just have an advantage in manufacturing capacity now. Their power has thoroughly penetrated democratic societies; in the language of the old internet, we have been p0wned. Figuring out effective defenses is a crucial task if liberalism wants to prevail in the 21st century the way it prevailed in the 20th."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/new-technologies-new-totalitarians
14. "I know a lot of really smart, interesting people. That’s why I find myself telling a lot of people that I’d love it if they shared their thoughts more often in public. I don’t much care whether they do it in writing, or a newsletter, a podcast or on LinkedIn—but I feel like I every time I interact with them, I learn something or I’m inspired to think about things in a different way.
Yet, the response I get most often is, “But there’s already so much content out there!”
I’ve never quite related to that way of thinking—mostly because I don’t actually find most online content to be that good. Remember, you don’t have to outrun the bear. You just have to outrun the slowest camper—and in the world of online thought leadership, there are a lot of slow campers."
https://www.thisisgoingtobebig.com/blog/2024/2/27/but-theres-so-much-content-out-there
15. A great view on geopolitics by one of the best in the business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DLjY502lPtU
16. An excellent discussion on what’s happening in business on the internet and popular culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVGuGnIyY90
17. Disturbing discussion on growing Chinese military (and unserious Taiwanese defense initiatives)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hK_eH5UnlTo
18. "Undergirding the globalist enterprise was China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. For decades, American policymakers and the corporate class said they saw China as a rival, but the elite that Friedman described saw enlightened Chinese autocracy as a friend and even as a model—which was not surprising, given that the Chinese Communist Party became their source of power, wealth, and prestige.
Why did they trade with an authoritarian regime and send millions of American manufacturing jobs off to China thereby impoverish working Americans? Because it made them rich. They salved their consciences by telling themselves they had no choice but to deal with China: It was big, productive, and efficient and its rise was inevitable. And besides, the American workers hurt by the deal deserved to be punished—who could defend a class of reactionary and racist ideological naysayers standing in the way of what was best for progress?
What seems clear is that Biden’s inauguration marks the hegemony of an American oligarchy that sees its relationship with China as a shield and sword against their own countrymen. Like Athens’ Thirty Tyrants, they are not simply contemptuous of a political system that recognizes the natural rights of all its citizens that are endowed by our creator; they despise in particular the notion that those they rule have the same rights they do.
Witness their newfound respect for the idea that speech should only be free for the enlightened few who know how to use it properly. Like Critias and the pro-Sparta faction, the new American oligarchy believes that democracy’s failures are proof of their own exclusive right to power—and they are happy to rule in partnership with a foreign power that will help them destroy their own countrymen."
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/the-thirty-tyrants
19. "The collapse of the US-led, rules-based international order means everything the US will do internationally in the future will be more challenging and filled with danger."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-american-way
20. "What I do think has become clear, though, is that the nation is slowly calming down. The Wikipedia page for “domestic terrorism in the United States” lists 9 “notable” domestic terrorist attacks from 2015 to 2019, and zero since. In my opinion, they’re omitting a few from the list, but the basic pattern is clear — the mid and late 2010s were the peak. Murder rates — which took decades to start falling after the unrest of the 60s and 70s — are now dropping.
Part of this might be due to simple exhaustion, after years of continuous unrest. Part of it might also be due to improvement in Americans’ economic circumstances. Employment rates are very high. Real wages are rising strongly for regular workers."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/getting-past-the-2010s
21. Lots of disturbing things on the geopolitical side. Erik Prince does know what he is talking about. USA is stretched and ground down by incompetent bureaucrats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBfyyLLM3pc&t=966s
22. "At a high level, the bearish sentiment makes sense. Inconsistent consumer sentiment and dwindling savings accounts prompt fears that spending will slow, customer acquisition costs have been rising, inventory and supply chain challenges are material and the shift toward generative artificial intelligence has emphasized infrastructure to date.
But public market data reveal a different story: Compared with enterprise software companies, consumer companies are more likely to go public after raising a Series B, more likely to drive efficient growth at the time of an initial public offering and just as likely to trade at 10 times revenue at the time of IPO.
Some of the world’s largest companies started by serving consumers. Just as enterprise software companies aim to expand revenue with clients by adding new products or increasing usage, consumer companies have parallel ambitions and success. Think about Amazon (books), Google (search), and Meta Platforms (Facebook)—three of the most influential companies, all of which began with a consumer-first value proposition and then expanded into adjacent businesses and multidimensional business models."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/dont-give-up-on-consumer-startups
23. Latest on what’s up in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwgUMt24qbE
24. I'm pro Taiwan and American so I am fan of this move.
https://www.defensehere.com/en/us-permanently-deploys-training-mission-in-taiwan
25. "This has a significant impact on the competitive advantages of a firm in the market as it scales. When party rounds were the standard course for smaller seed firms, connections were the scarce skill set, enabling access to deals led by other reputable firms. As these funds have become larger and rounds have become increasingly tighter, conviction becomes the scarcer skill set (i.e. can you lead and win the deal).
As someone who began my investing career outside of the valley, leading early rounds independently feels very natural to me. I knew full well that if a generic enterprise SaaS deal made its way to my desk from the Bay Area that it was likely adverse selection (sure enough, I lost nearly every $ I invested in the Bay Area). This forced independent conviction.
Not by choice, but by circumstance — fewer investors were looking at those deals and categories. Our team has developed capabilities to source independently, develop conviction independently, and partner with those that can appropriately complement us as co-investors and downstream investors. We also capped our fund size to enable the opportunity for us to continue to collaborate with our partner firms, whereas had we raised a larger amount we’d have to be even more restrictive.
Much like with startups, growth at all cost is a fool’s errand. In some select cases, scale can have advantages, but to pursue scale without recognizing its ramifications is a dangerous course of action. As firms grow, the fund size dictates the strategy and capabilities necessary to execute it."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/fund-size-is-your-strategy-d30f284c176a
26. A great discussion and historical review of the evolution of media businesses in the USA. Really interesting stuff if you want to build a media empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrsZl1NHmCE&t=82s
27. "Trae Stephens, a former government intelligence analyst turned early Palantir employee turned investor at Founders Fund, where Stephens has cofounded two companies of his own. One of these is Anduril, the buzzy defense tech company that is now valued at $8.4 billion by its investors. The other is Sol, which makes a single-purpose, $350 headset that weighs about the same as a pair of sunglasses and that is focused squarely on reading, a bit like a wearable Kindle. (Having put on the pair that Stephens brought to the event, I immediately wanted one of my own, though there’s a 15,000-person waitlist right now, says Stephens.)
We spent the first half of our chat talking primarily about Founders Fund, kicking off the conversation by talking about how Founders Fund differentiates itself from other firms (board seats are rare, it doesn’t reserve money for follow-on investments, consensus is largely a no-no)."
28. "The moon is just a weigh station for this grand plan. But think of space and the lunar surface as the most important physics lab humankind has ever been able to access. Much of the testing there will define what is possible on Earth. This is especially true of autonomous robotics. Mining on the moon or on asteroids is also about new methods for radically transforming mining on Earth.
The low gravity on the moon makes it a very cheap and easy place to launch from. The buildout on the lunar surface and beyond will mainly be done by 3-D printers and autonomous AI-led robotics."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/cows-jump-over-the-moon
29. "The multitrillion-dollar question is who gets to the steep part of the S-curve first — or whether OpenAI and its peers have already reached it. Because once ChatGPT (or Perplexity or Claude or a model we haven’t seen yet) hits escape velocity, the history of innovation tells us the race is over. A bad sign for Alphabet: Of the original eight researchers who wrote that AI “Attention” paper, only one still works at Google. Six others founded their own companies, and one joined OpenAI.
Something that’s speed-balled Christensen’s theory in this era is the amount of capital available to the defectors. Generative AI and AI-related startups raised more than $50 billion in 2023, led by Open AI. Over 70 rounds of $100+ million raises occurred last year. These companies aren’t immediately direct competitors of Google; they’re coming at the search game obliquely.
ChatGPT doesn’t fill every role that Google’s product offers, but it begins to nibble at the periphery, just as Google has been gnawing at all media for two decades. A former Google employee who founded their own AI startup recently said, “The pirates have their boats in the ocean, and we are coming.”
https://www.profgalloway.com/searching
30. "I asked how they approach things from a team and work perspective, and he shared something I’ll never forget. Their goal is to never have more than 10 employees and instead, they lean heavily on ChatGPT and other AI tools to augment their onshore, in-person team. Then, they have a growing presence in Eastern Europe for all of their development efforts and a customer service presence in the Philippines.
So, the business is based in Atlanta. The founders are in Atlanta, and their goal is to never have double-digit official employees. Instead, the main work is done by experts in one country, and the main support is done by experts in a different country. Everything that can be automated internally is automated; everything that can be outsourced is outsourced.
The ultimate result is a new category of startup: the forever lean startup.
Thinking more about this model, I think this is going to be a serious trend in startupland."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/03/02/rise-of-the-forever-lean-startup/
31. I love Buenos Aires and long overdue to return.
"The point of mentioning this is Buenos Aires is epic, from the georbitrage, nightlife, extremely attractive women, barrios (neighborhoods), and restaurants, I can’t find a better place to live and I consider myself very picky for where I base myself.
Geoarbitrage is the single most important reason I live here. The cost of living is incredibly cheap, even by Latin American standards, from rent to eating at classy restaurants, buying drinks/fun stuff, gyms, etc. I can live off $1200 USD per month and still enjoy the quality of life described below.
I’m going to say that I think I’m sitting on a good hand in the market (probably deserve to get a smack for this), I’ve already made some money thanks to investing in March 2020 market lows & being very early to uranium stocks, but I’m not willing to sell anything until I think the investment thesis has played out. So for now, I’m quite happy to base myself here, in a safe city with a low cost of living, trading options for income enjoying a bloody high quality of life."
https://geologotrader.substack.com/p/i-have-the-best-quality-of-life-here
32. "The other reason people never become financially independent is pure laziness.
Many smart people have already figured out that they will never become financially independent working a job (at least not before old age) and that they need to start some kind of business if they ever hope to get there.
The problem is “someday”. These guys are always stuck in “someday” and never take any action TODAY.
Someday and tomorrow are just words people use to express their laziness. Weeks, months, and years go by and these types never take any action.
Starting an online business is NOT hard but it does take some effort.
You have to learn a high paying skill (I recommend audience building, web design, copywriting, or programming). You have to send cold emails and DMs. You have to do the work.
It’s easy – all you have to do is click mouse buttons and hit keys on the keyboard.
But most people are lazy. They just don’t have the initiative to do it. They’d rather just beg their boss for leaves instead of trying to become their own boss.
There’s no excuse. The internet gives equal opportunity to everyone, but not equal results. Meritocracy.
If you don’t do the work, you don’t get results. And I have zero sympathy for the lazy."
https://lifemathmoney.com/how-to-become-financially-independent
33. "In summary, I’ll lay it out like this. If you’re a young professional, look at your peers higher up in the hierarchy, do you like what you see? Ask yourself is this what you aspire to? 99% of people do.
If you’re in the 1%, like me, set some goals, live cheaply, take calculated risks in the market than you may otherwise might later in life, and remember there are “options” out there to help you escape it all and live a life completely on your own terms. The further you move away from the thought and expectations of the 99%, in my experience, the less you actually give a fuck what people think.
Aspire to live a life true to yourself, and don’t take it all too seriously, remember at the end of the day, we’re just an evolved monkey species spinning around on a rock."
https://geologotrader.substack.com/p/create-opportunities-for-luck-my
34. "People consider what I’m doing as “risky”. 18 months without an employer or investment property, still with a regular income while I geoarbitrage my life in low-cost Argentina, trade options for income and let my longer-term investment thesis’ play out.
Having the character and strength to be the black sheep is when your eyes really open up to how the rest of the world works.
I like to think my one year in Argentina has almost left me with a Bachelor of how not to do Economics and a minor in anti-socialism."
Living an International Life: Geo-arbitrage at its Finest
I’m a firm believer in living a rich life. I believe for some the best opportunities sit outside of the USA. So living globally is a good way to live. Culturally you get to experience a different point of view and can make friends with people all over the world. It’s a great way to get appreciation for the human race and realize that we are more alike than different. Yet the small differences are helpful to learn new things and provide a small piece of the puzzle in understanding your life better.
For those business minded, going global is a must. I’ve been fortunate to have done well investing in startups and public stocks of companies from outside of the USA. It’s the ultimate alpha. Hungry international founders and businesses who are able to crack the US Market.
But at a larger global level, much of the future economic growth will also happen outside of the USA. So things like commodity & energy stocks or real estate are big opportunities as population & middle class growth happens there. I’ve said it before and will say it again: very bullish on markets like Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Colombia, Argentina and most of Central Eastern Europe particularly Poland, Czech Republic, Romania and Ukraine.
It’s also great to be able to vacation or even base yourself for a few months of the year where you can arbitrage the strength of the US Dollar or Euro which goes further to enable you to live a far better lifestyle than back in the USA.
Following the Sun: Weather is a big determinant of happiness. I hate extreme cold and heat. I noticed that I thrive in mild Mediterranean temperatures. Spending the summer in Taiwan this last year showed me how unenjoyable the experience was. I equally dislike staying in Canada during the winter.
Yes, I recognize that this makes me sound like a spoiled first-worlder. But in my older age, I find myself very negatively affected by extreme temperatures.
Going forward I will try to do a better job of optimizing the timing of where I go and when I go. It will be mainly Canada and Northern Europe during the summer. And the Middle East/ Latam during the winter. Asia is best for me during spring and Fall.
Healthcare is an important aspect of life. Unfortunately, US healthcare is a disaster zone. An absolute travesty. But going global is the way around this. Going elsewhere for treatments is common and medical tourism is becoming even more popular. I got a full body health check in Taiwan at the full price of $600 usd. This would be multiple times more expensive in America. Mexico and Thailand are also places that have a great reputation for excellent but relatively inexpensive health and dental care.
Eating is better outside of the USA too. I might add, the quality of meats, fruits and vegetables is so much better. As a self proclaimed foodie, there are so many good food places in the world. I love the cuisine in Taiwan, Japan, Mexico, and Thailand. It’s also very good in most parts of Europe and the Middle East. Canada and Australia have pretty damn good restaurants too. And goes without saying, it’s almost always, great value compared to life in so-called Tier 1 cities in the USA.
Despite all this, I’m unabashedly pro America. It’s an amazing place that has given me a lot and I think the world is a better place with a USA led world order. But I recognize its shortcomings as well.
At the same time, it’s the best place for business and where one can keep their edge of competitiveness. I have the best conversations and meet the most impressive people anywhere in the world. (I should note it’s also where I’ve met some of the most awful human beings in the world too).
It’s why America will continue to be my home. Tax wise it would be better living elsewhere but living a rich life is living where you want to that’s not just driven by money. America will be my hub as I explore the world looking for business opportunities and living well like the wandering investor. All the opportunities you want are out there, you just have to get off your butt and leave your comfort zone to get them.
The Unspoken Factor in Startups & Entrepreneurship: Faith & Self Belief
What causes a person to do a startup? To take the risk when there are so many other certain and probably more profitable paths out there for someone bright, smart and ambitious.
Money. Sure, but investment banking and hedge funds are a more certain thing. Status? Maybe in Silicon Valley but not sure in most circles or parts of the world. Freedom and control? Definitely.
But ultimately it comes down to taking a bet on yourself and self belief. Faith. Faith that there is a there there. Faith that you will figure things out.
It’s neat how random readings spark these ideas: many of these come from the sci-fi series of Warhammer 40k: Dan Abnett’s: The End and the Death.”
“That’s what faith does. It takes away fear. When he found it, it took away fear, and self conscious vanity, and all mortal concerns.”
Startups are a religious movement, some would even say a cult. You have to be the cult leader. to lead you have to believe. How can you convince others if you don’t believe it yourself? You will always have doubts. That’s normal. And you will have tough days, that’s inevitable. It will be hard work and long hours. Everything and anything worthwhile requires that.
Doing a startup requires courage. “What is courage, except an act? Courage isn’t a passive quality. Whether instinctive or forced, it’s the condition of acting in the face of danger.”
But this is how you build a legendary company like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, Salesforce or Oracle. Mythical companies.
“This venture would be a myth, for in myths, the weak, the outnumbered, the mere mortals, they always prevailed.
He should have remembered that myths never feel like myths at the time. You only realize you’ve been part of one long after it’s over. At the time, nothing is certain, and the chances of triumph are slim.”
This is why so many successful founders and builders go back to doing startups again. Even if they don’t need the money or accolades.
It’s to experience this feeling again. Defying the odds. The dopamine of discovery, building and being part of something bigger than yourself. To be the ultimate alchemist, creating something from nothing. Gold from air. It’s an addictive thing. To show you that faith can lead you to do impossible things like startups.
The Dark Moments of Doubt: Learning Not to Quit
This is a moment every founder and business person faces. When nothing seems to be working in your business despite all of your team and your own superhuman efforts. When the investors aren’t returning your calls, customers are dropping out, that is if you even have any to begin with. Your family and friends are openly questioning you about this life path.
Doubt starts to fill your mind and it’s so easy to quit. Especially in the late and darkest part of night. You are wracked with anxiety and wonder what to do. You are in this weird fugue state of panic and helplessness. It’s way more common than people think but few successful people talk about this. They actively try to forget or they want to protect their egos.
I face this myself as an investor. Getting a bunch of NOs from potential LPs in your fund or when a bunch of your startups die. In one case, it was 4 in one week back in early 2022. You wonder what’s wrong with you. What you are missing. You really question yourself.
And of course, as per the rule of 3, there usually are other small and big things that go wrong in your life. Your phone breaks, you have family issues or something else crappy in your personal life. It’s so easy to feel like every aspect of your life is going wrong.
So what do I do to get past this?
At that moment, you have to decide not to decide on anything. Important decisions should not be made when you are feeling down and especially when it’s late at night. I then meditate to calm my monkey brain. I also take some melatonin and try to get a good night's rest. I tell myself that tomorrow is a brand new day.
And surprisingly, it works most of the time. My subconscious brain works at what was a previous intractable issue or problem.
I do my morning exercise routine which gives me new energy to go forward.
I review my vision board and mission which is a reminder of my why: why I do what I do. I then focus on the small specific tactics to regain momentum in my life and business. Even if it’s a tiny movement back in the right direction.
It could be a call to your team or biz partner. Or you reach out to an old or new client. Maybe you post new useful content on your social media. Or you publish a new post on your blog or newsletter. Every little bit helps. As Ben Affleck in the excellent sales movie “Boiler Room”: “Move around. Motion creates emotion.”
Taking smart action the next day is usually the cure that stops me from even thinking of quitting. This way I can treat my previous doubts like a bad dream that I can move on from.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 24th, 2024
"This is no time for ease and comfort. It is time to dare and endure." – Winston Churchill
"The future looks grim for the overworked fleet. Like the rest of the U.S. military, the Navy is facing an unprecedented recruiting crisis, fueled in part by fatigue from time away from home during extended deployments. In an all-volunteer force, sailors will vote with their feet. A shrinking fleet is the likely outcome, regardless of how many warships America has.
The most immediate danger of overstretch, though, is munitions not manpower. The opening Jan. 12 strike on the Houthis expended 80 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, more than half the missile’s annual production. In the near term, expending hundreds of these missiles in a tertiary operation like Prosperity Guardian could have major impacts in a far more important theater in the Pacific.
Precision strike missiles like the Tomahawk are vital to the U.S. military’s ability to deter, and if necessary, defeat a Chinese attack in the Pacific—a contingency where the Navy will be carrying most of the fight, unlike in America’s Middle East wars. The U.S. may already lack sufficient precision munitions for a shooting war with China. The Navy’s newest Middle East operation adds further risk to the service’s most essential mission."
https://time.com/6693320/us-navy-yemen-middle-east/
2. "Hawks have been saying for decades that we are living in an incredibly dangerous world. That was an exaggeration twenty years ago but now is actually true. In such a context, our nation needs hawks to follow their convictions where they lead: That hard power is central, that we face scarcity, that it will take years at best to redress, that we can’t “walk and chew gum,” and that the most dangerous threat we face is the one with the most hard power—China.
In such a context, it is wildly imprudent to cut it close against our most important threat, banking on a single theory of victory. Hawks must now match their commendable rhetoric on China with real action—and above all, a willingness to prioritize confronting this, our greatest threat."
https://time.com/6696552/u-s-hawks-china-threat-essay/
3. Luke Belmar is the man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-ZTbDExs4I
4. "All I’m saying is that as an asset class, venture capital is way better than it gets credit for. There’s no other asset class that’s been as positive-sum or cooked more free lunches over the past half century.
I’d argue that even if venture capital underperformed other asset classes, generated 0% returns or something, it would be a net benefit to society to have a pool of capital that funds crazy experimentation. But this is capitalism, and returns are what keeps the machine humming. So the fact that VC has generated such strong returns over a long time horizon is key.
The question is: will venture continue to deliver returns?
I think the answer is undoubtedly, unquestionably yes.
Tech is Going to Get Much Bigger as tech’s total addressable market expands to include large existing industries that have been relatively untouched by technology, including industrials and agriculture. Cheaper energy, intelligence, and dexterity, in the words of Valar Atomics’ Isaiah Taylor, will mean new opportunities to attack old industries with cheaper, better products. Higher margins in large industries will make for very valuable companies. And things that were previously impossible are becoming possible at an accelerated rate.
Venture was created for times like this, when big shifts in underlying technologies create opportunities for crazy geniuses to build products that might change the world."
https://www.notboring.co/p/venture-capital-and-free-lunch
5. This is a fun discussion on business ideas. Good and intriguing ideas. Learned a bunch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6yt891IBhI
6. Lots of interesting insights from one of the top Growth stage VCs in the world. IVP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr6A1qYzlds
7. "The problem now is that the losses in the property sector are so severe that there is no money for people to buy anything except whatever is essential. The property losses are killing all other consumer-led sectors in the economy.
The Belt and Road Initiative should have brought in debt repayments and commercial revenues, but it isn’t. More and more nations can’t and won’t pay China back fast enough, thanks to devaluation, inflation, and their over-indebtedness. Few are enchanted with whatever infrastructure China has already provided, thanks to shoddy construction and cut corners, and are unlikely to buy more. Chinese nationals are now fleeing the country. Money is running away, too. Against that backdrop, the US is about to begin hitting China with sanctions for supporting Russia. But what if China breaks? Really breaks?
When the Soviet Union ceased to exist, it was every man for himself. China is bigger. It has more people. Despite best efforts to shut it out, it is more deeply integrated into the world economy. It’s not that China doesn’t deserve to be sanctioned for helping Russia disrupt the world. It’s that hitting China with sanctions now might work all too well and smash an already fragile situation.
The whole world may have to pick up the pieces. Luckily, Global grain production just surpassed the global record. There is enough to go around, but policymakers will have to completely change how they think about China. Sometimes, superpowers need help. The US bailed the Soviet Union out of a famine in 1973. They might have to lead a humanitarian food bailout of China in 2025. It’s unimaginable now. But, it is possible if the unimaginable happens in China."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/broken-chinapaper-tiger-capital-flight
8. Timely conversation on Russia, Ukraine and Poland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_KfVGiav8U
9. "All in all, the pace of regulation in the last 50 years is unprecedented in history. Regulators are motivated to write new regulations, and unmotivated to eliminate old ones; lawmakers and courts are too deferential to bureaucrats; the largest industrial giants (not to mention hospitals and universities) tacitly support costly regulations because they are even more costly to startup competitors. And those same companies can pass the regulatory burden onto consumers — shown in the famous AEI “Chart of the Century” of sector-based inflation. The more regulation, the more inflation."
https://blog.joelonsdale.com/p/time-to-take-out-the-regulatory-trash
10. "Dubai reopened aggressively during the pandemic with extensive testing and vaccination programs. It has since outpaced its primary competitor, Singapore, as the key destination for the wealthy seeking sunshine, lifestyle, and lower taxes. Dubai now stands alone in the Eastern hemisphere as the nexus point for the wealthy of the Middle East, Asia, Russia, and many Europeans.
Similarly, Miami became a top destination for the wealthy through the pandemic and has now emerged as the Dubai of the Western hemisphere. Already considered the “capital of Latin America,” Miami has become the nexus point for the wealthy of the U.S., Canada, and Europe for the same reasons as Dubai: sunshine, lifestyle, and lower taxes.
Very much like Dubai, the culture of Miami encourages emigration, success, capitalism, and wealth. The city government, led by Mayor Francis Suarez, actively seeks to expand the city and attract new business."
https://refreshmiami.com/miami-the-dubai-of-the-western-hemisphere/
11. IMHO Hadrian is one of the most important startups in America right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hElCTgO9e0
12. Awesome discussion on how creator brands will be built in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tl5UsFTO9iY
13. It’s not over yet but this is why I don't trust any politicians. The West sold out Ukraine & I am disgusted as all of us should be.
"It has always been clear that in a one-on-one fight Russia would eventually win this, and only strong and ongoing support from the West could sustain Ukraine holding the lines. It never has been made clear exactly what sort of support was required to roll-back Russia back to internationally recognized borders.
And that is the theory that has been gaining currency over the past few weeks: the West never was interested in a decisive Ukrainian win and ensured that weapon deliveries matched that goal. A stalemate would be the best possible outcome as it would keep Putin in his seat and avoid a nuclear escalation. No, that does not mean Putin is a good old pal, but a humiliating Russian defeat could potentially spur the emergence of elements far more radical than the current leader.
So we have an outsourced war where the dial is not moved one way or the other, at least for now. That also serves the political goal of keeping the conflict out of the headlines: this is a war in which most Americans, Canadians and Europeans aren’t terribly interested in in the first place. It is state of the art ‘realpolitik’ the price of which is paid for in rivers of blood by both Ukrainians and Russians.
It is a cynical view for sure, but if you consider all the facts two years into this adventure, then it is hard to see it in a fundamentally different way."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/ukraines-struggle
14. "When investing in a story/trend you believe will go from “never” to “maybe” happening, the importance of a project’s traction is low. The market doesn’t expect much because the market believes this token is attached to a trend that is unlikely to grow in the future. Therefore, even mediocre results are trumped as groundbreaking because the expectations are so low.
When investing in a story/trend you believe will go from “maybe” to “definitely” happening, the importance of a project’s traction is high. The market’s expectations are high because they believe in a bright future. What would be considered mind-blowing results in the previous phase are considered mediocre in this phase. Amazing results are not enough; in this phase, a project must be genuinely revolutionary in order to meet expectations."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/chief-story-officer
15. "Brands and organizations decay slowly; it can be hard for outsiders to see the weakness until it’s readily apparent to all. But customers are smart, and all of Techstars’ customers eventually saw what was happening, and acted accordingly.
The first to spot the weakness were startup founders. Their ambition and acute realism made them sensitive to the clear shift in Techstars’ priorities, away from serving founders and toward the “corporate innovation” business.
With dozens of programs scattered around the globe, often in partnership with second-tier brands, and in locations with little to no native startup ecosystem, it was hard to say exactly what the Techstars brand stood for anymore, but it clearly wasn’t “helping entrepreneurs succeed”. While Techstars wanted founders to see Techstars as a single thing, smart founders realized that their outcome and ROI depended entirely on the MD and specific program they participated in."
https://www.founderscoop.com/2024/what-went-wrong-at-techstars/
16. Always enlightening stuff on geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJaLKS3JHcc
17. More geopolitics with Zeihan. America needs to make some hard decisions soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQksC-8fqpM
18. Latest NIA episode which is always an insightful convo on creative businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QeSzaB8v1M0
19. "But it’s his growing power off the pitch that is increasingly interesting. Perhaps more than any other athlete, Messi’s unique abilities and recent moves position him to build a level of wealth that far outstrips even other legends. In particular, his move to America in 2022 and the launch of the holding company Play Time have opened up new monetization opportunities that reveal much about contemporary stardom, technological shifts, and the incredible leverage of tech startups.
In a decade or two, we may look back on Jordan’s current wealth as a rounding error compared to modern athletes’ affluence. The rise of social media and software allows players to monetize directly, cut out intermediaries, and build extraordinary wealth. Rather than relying on executives like Sonny Vaccaro and Nike founder Phil Knight, today’s Air Jordan would run on Shopify, collect payments through Stripe, and advertise over Instagram and TikTok. Its titular star wouldn’t have just 5% royalties but 100% ownership.
More than any other athlete, Lionel Messi is best placed to capitalize on these changing dynamics. The greatest footballer of all time is a singular talent entering his second act in the richest country in the world. While Messi’s move to America’s Major League Soccer has attracted more attention, his holding company “Play Time” – which SEC filings suggest is raising $200 million in capital – may illustrate the true scale of his commercial aspirations. Through public statements and conversations between The Generalist and Play Time’s co-founder Razmig Hovaghimian, a clearer image emerges: Messi doesn’t want to simply sell sneakers – he wants to build and invest in the great software and media companies of the next generation. It’s an ambitious plan that, if successful, offers much higher upside. The business of being the GOAT looks more lucrative than ever before."
https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/messi-inc
20. This is a must watch to learn about what’s happening in tech. It's arguably the best podcast tech show around now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-i9AGk3DJ90&t=3091s
21. "As promising as those developments may be, this is ultimately a war over territory that comes down to Ukraine’s ability to defend it.
Russia has its own supply issues, which forced it to recently begin purchasing mass quantities of ammunition from North Korea, and has also been reluctant to call a second mass mobilization to bring more troops to the front. But Russia’s ability to sustain heavy losses also shouldn’t be underestimated. A recent analysis from the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimated that even after losing around 8,800 fighting vehicles in the war so far, Russia will probably still be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another two to three years.
It’s clear that this will be a much longer war and a contest of industrial capacity and political will as much as military maneuvers. But even getting to that marathon will require Ukraine getting past a very difficult period in the coming months.
Gady said a complete collapse of Ukraine’s defenses was not entirely out of the question, but still unlikely: “There are going to be a couple months where the situation is really dire for Ukraine, but I think they can hold.”
https://www.vox.com/2024/2/22/24079595/avdiivka-ukraine-russia-war-artillery
22. Clockspeed. Great concept.
https://sriramk.com/clock-speed/
23. "Still, there are some reasons to be optimistic about Japan’s economy in general. First, the country is finally taking its own defense seriously — defense spending surged from 5.4 trillion yen in 2022 to 7.95 trillion yen in 2024. That’s still only about 1.5% of GDP, but the rapid increase is pretty stunning. Defense spending will stimulate manufacturing, but will also give Japan the chance to build its own military-related tech industries. More fundamentally, it demonstrates that Japan’s leaders realize the magnitude of the threat China poses, and realize that they need economic growth in order to fund a more robust defense.
Second, Japan is bringing in large numbers of foreign workers to ease its labor shortage.
To sum up, I think that what Japan really needs in order for its economy to be fully “back” is to rediscover the zeal for industrial policy and cultural transformation that it had during its catch-up years in the 1960s and 1970s. The specific policies just need updates for the modern age. Instead of shutting out FDI, Japan now needs to draw it in.
Instead of building a corporate culture based on lifetime employment and seniority promotion, it needs to build one based on flexibility in hiring and in work hours. And instead of clinging to fading dominance in the industries of the 1970s, it needs to muscle in on the industries of the 2020s.
I believe Japan can do it. But it’s not going to be easy or quick."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/japan-isnt-quite-back-but-it-has
24. "The biggest concern at this point lies not so much with the political caste, but whether the social context, with very high inflation and rock-bottom salaries, will allow Milei to continue down this path.
If salary purchasing power is not restored in the coming weeks, the government could have serious social problems (read: more serious riots and revolts)."
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/feudal-fiat-warfare-and-power-struggles
25. "How does one compare the wars in Gaza and Ukraine with those in Ethiopia and Sudan, or for that matter the civil war in Myanmar or the regular fighting in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (which may be close to taking off again) and the multi-faceted violence in West Africa, with its Islamist insurgencies and recent series of coups?
It is no comfort to individuals caught up in any of these wars to know that somebody else’s war, measured by cumulative casualties, is even more vicious than your own. As we have seen with all these wars it is not good enough to deplore violence and wish for it to stop without some understanding of the political, social, and economic conditions that have caused and sustained these conflicts."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-forgotten-wars
26. "Jobs are being lost, but augmentation will be the broader story. Rather than copywriter Mary losing her job, Mary’s firm will train her on an AI tool that generates first drafts, takes approved product copy and converts it for catalog, web, and social use, and streamlines other tasks. Accordingly, Mary’s manager will expect her to generate three times the copy in the same time.
Managers can take on new initiatives and domains without the headache of hiring more humans. It’s growth without calories. I’ve founded two strategy firms (Prophet and L2) and loved everything about them, except for the clients and the employees — every additional hire creates complexity and thus increases risk. The AI revolution will inspire a golden age of startups with lower infant mortality, as there will be fewer people (i.e., less risk) required to get to sustainability.
CEOs are being coy about this, at least in public, because there’s a sense of fear surrounding the brave new world of AI. The illusionist’s trick in the Valley right now is getting the media to look over there (trimming fat) while they’re stuffing the rabbit into the hat here (replacing it with AI). In the next several quarters, however, I believe CEOs will come out in earnings calls and put it bluntly: “We’re going to be a smaller company that does more business thanks to AI.”
Pundits will clutch their pearls for a hot minute until the stock explodes, and the secret hiding in plain sight will be visible to everyone. It’s corporate Ozempic. It’s not about less bread, but less craving for bread. Read: hiring people.
This will, correctly, raise concerns about a dystopia where nobody can find work. But AI will ultimately create jobs, as there will be new windows of attack against corporate titans. AI is currently a hormone therapy for mature companies looking to feel young again. Soon enough, though, a new generation of firms raised on the mother’s milk of AI will create an army of supersoldiers ready to attack bigger armies who are still fighting on horseback. I’m here for it."
https://www.profgalloway.com/corporate-ozempic/
27. Great episode this week. Good discussion on AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6vrKA_L5pk
28. The latest thoughts from Zeihan. Enlightening and frightening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSC6sUAyf8U
29. "As an entrepreneur with limited resources and incredible challenges, finding great people, even if they have an existing job and keep that job, is one of the most important responsibilities. This is but one of many alternative ideas to recruiting talent and building a business."
30. "If you’re starting a new company, start selling immediately. If you can’t create a pithy message which gets them interested, work through the sales process to prove value, and complete transactions reliably for actual dollars, it does not matter what you have built. Working on your go-to-market motion early will impact in inextricable ways the product you are building. As a co-founder and CEO, your first priority is to ensure the company doesn’t run out of money, and priority number two is to be the head of go-to-market. Start now."
https://clintsharp.com/post/sell-the-product-before-it-exists/
31. More or Less this week. So many juicy nuggets in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_9u5IktrV8
32. Great thoughts around how to build a Personal Holding Co. I really believe this is the future of entrepreneurship.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_x5pN33Wzo
33. What a fascinating conversation on what's up in the venture market. So helpful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OVTwA0vl2c&t=2372s
34. "The past eighteen months or so have been more than a little surreal for Butler. He began 2023 in a position that all actors dream of but few know firsthand, nominated for Best Actor by every awards body that matters. It was his portrayal of Elvis Presley in director Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis that landed him there, and the experience—junket into roundtable into podcast, photo shoot into red carpet into reception—was both euphoric and exhausting.
When the film, a fever-dream retelling of Presley’s life, debuted to rave reviews and a strong box office in 2022, Butler became an overnight sensation. He was on the cover of national magazines and a fixture on the late-night TV circuit. Tabloids and online forums feverishly blogged about his dating life. Social media exploded with fans frothing at the mouth for the heartthrob.
But like most overnight sensations, Butler had been working for much of his life for a role like Elvis. A role that he could give himself over to completely. A role that would catapult him to the top of every casting director’s list.
Elvis would deliver all those things, plus earn him Golden Globe and BAFTA statuettes as well as an Oscar nomination, but Butler is not one to be idle. While Luhrmann’s film was in postproduction, the actor dove right into shooting a few major projects that are now finally getting released.
First up: Masters of the Air, a World War II miniseries from Tom Hanks and Steven Spielberg that debuted on Apple TV+ at the end of January. (Hanks costarred with Butler in Elvis as the singer’s infamous manager, Colonel Tom Parker, and recruited him during filming.) And in the biggest theatrical event of the spring—quite possibly the year—he’ll star opposite Timothée Chalamet in the second entry of director Denis Villeneuve’s cyberpunk Dune franchise."
35. I'm a big fan of Justin Waller. This is a great convo on getting strong and having grit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mf8Cs-QMKhg
36. "If the U.S. approves funding for Ukraine—the Senate passed $60 billion in aid last week but it faces steep hurdles in the House—it should be possible to get around 1.3 million rounds of ammunition to the country in 2024, which would allow Ukraine to hold the line. With European investment to expand production, significantly more can be provided in 2025, meeting a level that would enable Ukrainian offensive operations. But with Europe still expanding production capacity, Ukraine will face critical shortages in the next few months unless the U.S. steps in.
In spite of these advantages, Russia’s firepower dominance will potentially diminish over time. Although its shell production can increase, Russia has so far relied heavily on taking barrels from old Soviet systems it held in storage. By 2025, these stocks will be running low and Russia’s capacity to forge barrels is insufficient to meet its future needs.
The result is that through 2025 the accuracy of Russian guns, and the number that are available at any given time, may diminish. That may give Ukraine and its backers some hope in the longer run. But the critical question is whether the U.S. is willing to sustain the fight for the next year, before the tide begins to turn once again in Ukraine’s favor."
https://www.time.com/6694885/ukraine-russia-ammunition/
37. Fascinating & wide ranging conversation with a top hedge fund investor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgGKhsWhUu8
38. "Despite the challenges, Ukraine has not succumbed to despair. Instead, it has embarked on a path of self-reliance, a journey marked by resilience and strategic innovation in the face of adversity. Ukrainian defence is transitioning from urgent procurement to boosting its own weapons production and forming strategic partnerships with foreign defence companies. This shift is meant to enhance Ukraine’s native defence capabilities in the long term.
The shift towards self-reliance and innovative strategies stands as a testament to Ukraine’s resilience. Support from its allies may be diminishing, but Ukraine’s determination to win this war and ensure a bright future for its citizens is not."
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/opinions/2024/2/21/ukraine-is-switching-to-self-reliance-mode
39. "Ukrainians are doing everything and giving everything they have for this, and they will not stop. They are fighting for their future, and they will not give up on their future. They will not surrender to Russian capture and enslavement. They received a soft independence in 1991, which they turned into complete self-governance and independence in 2014 and now Russia has come to crush them.
Thanks to U.S. aid, the Ukrainians have not been crushed. Thanks to U.S. aid, they have taught the second largest military power in the world, that might doesn't make right. Where is the Russian cruiser Moskva? Thanks to U.S. aid, a new free nation is being born in the world. Ukraine is not giving up.
The U.S. and Ukraine’s goals and futures have suddenly collided toward the same ends, and we need only to give Ukrainians the tools they are asking for. Give Ukrainians the weapons they need, and they will succeed."
https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-from-an-american-in-avdiivka-what-is-congress-doing/
Beware of Life on Easy Mode: Stuck in the Matrix
For those who have been stuck in a cave for 24 years, the Matrix is this amazing sci-fi movie that came out in 1999. It describes a world where humans are put in stasis and treated like batteries by robots. In meantime, humans are living in a made up digital world, almost like the metaverse blissfully unaware of the harsh reality around them. Living a fake reality while their bodies are being harvested for energy.
Actually it’s a good metaphor for the world we live in now, consumers in debt chasing the next shiny toy sold by big corporations, brainwashed by ads, social media, mainstream media and public schooling.
I’d argue that 70 years without major global war like World War 1 and 2 or the massive economic crisis like the Great Depression, we find ourselves drowning in comfort and complacency. Now the world is filled with sleepy, soft and weak men.
All aided and abetted by bad diets & being poor health or obese. Trapped in sedentary or Dehumanizing jobs where they are addicted to their bi-monthly paycheck, and barely getting by financially. Consuming and spending all their money on stuff they don’t like to impress people they don’t know.
Add to this, how they use their time: on Social media for quick dopamine hits. Or worse, following Netflix, Onlyfans, and general degenerate and addictive habits like gambling. All the while searching for fame and quick riches. Stuck in Short term thinking. Distracted by The current thing and the lies of the Mainstream Media (MSM).
Terms like NPC or LARP-ing are often used. Non Player Character is someone who is predictable or does not think for themselves. Or Live Action Role Play: people pretending and acting out a character. Fake and unreal. And all uncomplimentary obviously. Sadly most people fit in these descriptions to the tee.
Bowtiedbull wrote:
“Everything that has happened in the past 5-10 years or so has all benefitted the people at the top: 1) wealth inequality, 2) dating inequality, 3) income inequality and 4) even location inequality due to the ability to leave if running an online biz
Won't get better, will worsen.”
Source: https://twitter.com/BowTiedBull/status/1682091694479515658
The guys are right: We see the growing surveillance state and power of multinational corporations. With Growing wealth inequality we see the ongoing death of the middle class in the West. And for some of us, something feels very much wrong. That we are becoming numb to life. This is the real Matrix we are trapped in.
“For years, man ran outside, overcame natural obstacles & conquered the elements. Today the average man struggles to walk up stairs. We were meant for more than what modern life demands.
Our bodies crave activity.
Our minds crave challenge.
Our soul demands purpose.”
Source: https://twitter.com/PathToManliness/status/1681987407409733632
Living in “Hard mode” is the way out. Fix your diet. Stop drinking soda and eating fast foods and foods full of preservatives. Exercise and lift weights regularly. Learn to fight and train in mixed martial arts. Take Ice baths & saunas. Sign up for marathons or extreme sports. Physical fitness is the bare minimum requirement to excellence and standing out.
Start a business and invest in yourself. Act with discipline and courage every day in small ways. Take ownership for your results. Hold yourself to high standards. Question everything and learn to think for yourself. Be generous and bring others up with you. Build your tribe. Do all the hard things you don’t want to do but know are good for you.
MasterYourBeliefs Tweeted:
“This modern life has been here for 50-60 years.
Our struggle for survival, or fighting for our life, that all has been here for countless millennia.
We are machines of 'war', not of watching Netflix and arguing online.
We crave 'real' action, not the present day substitutes.”
Source: https://twitter.com/BeliefsInHands/status/1681988535534977027
Challenge yourself like the strong men and women of old times that sacrificed and created the prosperous world we live in now.
Do all of this and you will have a chance of breaking out of the matrix so you can live the life that you dream of.
Everyone Needs a Sanctuary: Finding Your Shelter in a World of Chaos
It’s a nutty world out there. I see this every day as I travel the world. I live in the USA which is chaos and mental illness all encapsulated in a country. I also work in the fast changing tech industry which adds another layer of insanity. That’s why it’s so important to have a refuge from this. Especially a Taurus where I like things to be ordered and well planned. Predictable.
For some people, sanctuary is family, your parents, your spouse or close friends. But this is a double edged sword. In its ability to bring you incredible happiness, but also a very high level of pain and sorrow. I used to treat my household in San Francisco as this retreat but unfortunately the 2020 pandemic lockdowns pretty much destroyed this.
One of the repercussions of 2020 that society will be dealing with over the next decades is mass scarring and negative psychological impact on our kids as well as the destruction of many romantic relationships during the lockdowns. I know countless couples who broke up or divorced over the last few years with the cause stemming from pandemic times.
For someone like me, who hates relying on other people, it’s also incredibly risky. Once burned, twice shy as they say. Nothing worse than returning to a tumultuous family life on top of work. It’s unsettling to say the least.
So what can you do?
That’s why I took the advice that investor & business influencer Codie Sanchez provided, when she had gotten divorced, “one thing that helped me…. I got this little tiny townhouse that I rented. And that tiny townhouse, nesting, in a place just my own, that felt really safe was one of the weirdest unlocks that I ever had. Now I think of it as the power of place. If you can just have somewhere else, that is just yours.
My biggest recommendation for people who go through a divorce or a really tumultuous change in partner is there is something like a glass of wine or a cup of tea in this tiny townhouse. But it was mine. And I didn’t have to share it. I didn’t have to compromise and (I could) just be me. From there I could just sort of recreate again”
It really makes sense. That’s why the next closest thing which I rely on is a physical place: my hotel room, as I travel often, and my books. They provide me a refuge to meditate and calm myself. They are physical things that you can almost fully control. Your little oasis.
And it’s the first step to get you back on the right path. You need this to regain agency in a world that is constantly trying to take this away from you. Think of it as another tool that enables you to thrive in a complex world whether you are married, divorced, separated or single.
Preparing for War: Losing An Outdated Mindset (Geopolitically Speaking)
Like it or not, the world is getting tougher, more competitive, vicious and meaner. In our streets, in our businesses and in our everyday lives. This is due to global macro changes. Pax Americana is ending, we are entering a multipolar world. Or better said when the king looks weak, all the pawns will make their moves.
With the end of American hegemony due to profligate spending, wasting money and blood and senseless wars in the middle east by grifting incompetent political elites, we are tired and cynical. Our enemies in the new Axis of Russia-China-Iran-North Korea are circling and chipping away at us and our allies, taking advantage of the cracks and issues in our societies.
Yet the American and Western European populace are still dangerously complacent. Or worse, wrapped up in their woke stupid luxury beliefs indulging in degeneracy. Railing against inequality, hating and blaming our history and refusing to understand the depth of the threat against our way of life. Squandering the freedom that our forefathers fought and bled for. Unwilling to sacrifice and ignorant of the repercussions.
Our new Axis of evil enemies have exploited our openness and ignorance and through social media like Tiktok turned us against each other. To go to another fictional character of the Marvel Universe: Baron Zemo said once: “An empire toppled by it’s enemies can rise again. But one which crumbles from within? That’s dead. Forever.”
Unfortunately this is the direction we are heading as a civilization. Western civilization which we all take for granted. The barbarians are the gate! Look at what the Russians are doing in Ukraine, or what Hamas has done to Israel on October 7th, 2023. Or look at what the Houthis, who are Iranian proxies, are doing in the Red Sea by disrupting sea lanes and trade which most of us are highly reliant on.
This brings me to a scene in the remake of Star Trek: Into Darkness the movie, Spock interrogates Khan, the genetically engineered old Earth conqueror.
Khan says: Alexander Marcus needed to respond to an uncivilized threat in a civilized time. He needed a warrior’s mind. My mind. To design weapons and warships”
Spock: “You are suggesting that the admiral violated every rule and regulation he vowed to uphold simply to exploit your intellect.”
Khan responds: “He wanted to exploit my savagery, intellect alone is useless in a fight. You can’t even break a rule, how can you be expected to break bone.”
There is a lesson here. We need to wake up. We need to get strong and not be afraid of wielding whatever strength, economic or real weapons that we possess. We need to be ready to go full Viking savagery on our enemies. The stakes are high. If we lose, we lose everything: Our prosperity, our way of life, our freedoms.
No one wants violence, no one wants war. But as the old Leon Trotsky saying goes: “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”
Or put this in another way. Using A Louis L’amour Western theme, we are now leaving a big city where there is civilization, law and order and police to stop the bad guys (well, not if you are in a stupid Progressive left-run city like San Francisco or Chicago or LA, that is another story).
We are now entering the wild west frontier full of hostile Indians and bandits ready to kill you, harm your family and take your stuff. A world where might makes right and where your softness, decency & civilized behavior is now a weakness. In this world, survival should be your first thought and priority.
If you are as convinced as I am that we are in a fight right now, we need to prepare our minds, our bodies, our families, our economy and our countries for this. “Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum” translated into English means “If You Want Peace, Prepare For War."
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 17th, 2024
"No matter how much falls on us, we keep plowing ahead. That's the only way to keep the roads clear." – Greg Kincaid
"An entire generation of executives and entrepreneurs that came of age in recent years was essentially robbed of an opportunity to form actual views about the world—both descriptive, what it is, and normative, what it should be—leaving us with a managerial class whose principal purpose often seems to be little more than ensuring its own survival and re-creation.
The result is that many of those in power have become so fearful of offending anyone that one would be forgiven for assuming based on their public statements that their interior lives and most intimate thoughts had recoiled into something small and shallow. The perverse and unintended result is that corporations selling consumer goods feel the need to develop and indeed broadcast their views on issues affecting our moral or interior lives, while software companies with the capacity and, perhaps, duty to shape our geopolitics remain conspicuously silent."
“Google should not be in the business of war,” the employees wrote, insisting that the company agree never to “build warfare technology.”
The problem is not a principled commitment to pacifism or nonviolence. It is a more fundamental abandonment of belief in anything. The employees who resisted leveraging the machinery of Google in service of building software for the U.S. military know what they oppose but not what they are for. The company, at its core, builds elaborate and extraordinarily lucrative mechanisms to monetize the placement of advertising for consumer goods and services that accompany search results.
The service is vital and has remade the world. But the business, and a significant subset of its employees, stop short of engaging with more fundamental and essential questions of national purpose and identity—with an affirmative vision of what we want to and should be building as part of a national project, not simply an articulation of the lines that one will not cross.
They remain content to monetize our search histories but decline to defend our collective security. The entire company, however, along with any number of Silicon Valley’s largest technology enterprises, owe their existence in significant part to the educational culture, as well as the legal protections and capital markets, of the U.S."
https://time.com/6692111/silicon-valley-palantir-alexander-karp/
2. UK in the Post American world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjmBAhTDRXY
3. "“Made in Japan” was a joke in the immediate postwar era, and then something akin to a threat in the Eighties. Today it is a badge of authenticity, deployed anywhere status needs to be conferred to a quotidian item: Japanese denim, Japanese whiskey, Japanese cleaning magic, Japanese Breakfast (okay, so that last one’s an indie-pop band.)
Japan may not confer any cool factor in the AI sphere, but it possesses undeniable cool factor in the real world. It’s also safe, in all senses of the word. It’s seen as free from crime and societal strife. It isn’t percieved as a threat, or even involved in touchy geopolitical issues. The things many foreigners associate with Japan, from anime to Zen, spark joy. And all of this combines to make Japan one of the, if not THE, most-wanted-to-visit destination in the world. In a world full of entrenched divisiveness and conflict, Japan is the one thing everyone can agree on: humanity’s shared safe space.
So. OpenAI has a problem. They have a technology with the power to transform (there’s that word again) and the power to terrify. They need to reach as many people as possible in as reassuring a way as possible. Enter Japan, with its built-in fun-factor from fluffy cherry blossoms to high-tech Shibuya street scenes, to soften the impact.
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/ai-and-japan-as-a-safe-space
4. The best discussion on creative & cultural businesses and internet memes as a biz.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mxMiypNkU_o&t=557s
5. Lessons from one of the top VCs in the game. Upside maximization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5Z0-d5w18M&t=7s
6. Talk about heroes.
https://time.com/6694858/ukrainian-helicopter-missions-mariupol-siege/
7. "Most military analysts believe that, in the coming year, even if U.S. aid finally comes through, Russia has the advantage. Russia has used continued revenues from the sale of oil and gas to pay for weapons manufacturing: it’s producing munitions, missiles, and tanks at rates double and triple what they were before the war. Though Ukrainian forces have driven drone innovation on the battlefield, Russia, over the past year, has produced more drones. And the state has managed, by hook and by crook, to continue recruiting men into the armed forces. “Let’s be honest,” Zaluzhny told The Economist, “it’s a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life.”
Ukraine has some advantages. Western-supplied long-range missile systems possess precision and evasion capabilities that Russian missiles cannot match. These have allowed Ukraine to strike Russian airfields, barracks, and weapons depots well behind the front lines, including in Crimea; they have also helped Ukraine break the blockade of its Black Sea shipping lanes.
Ukrainian soldiers have a better sense of what they’re fighting for, and the Army is the most respected institution in the country. Though Zaluzhny has been replaced, there is reason to believe that the reforms he’s been advocating, including a substantial increase in troop mobilization, will be carried out without him.
Oliker, whose job at the International Crisis Group is to seek ways to end conflicts, does not see how this one can end just yet. She admitted that, in the aftermath of the failed counter-offensive, in the midst of a long cold winter, and with Western support in doubt, Ukraine is facing a very difficult moment. “But it was not a good moment for Russia in spring and summer of 2022,” Oliker said. “That’s war. If it is, in fact, a long war, prepare for a few more back-and-forths.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/essay/can-ukraine-still-win
8. "That little trip down memory lane—or rather Market Street—was the happiest I’d seen him all morning. We’d spent much of our time together talking about the more recent past, and none of it was much fun to revisit. A few days earlier, he and Brex co-founder Henrique Dubugras had announced that they were laying off 20% of the company and that two top executives, Chief Operating Officer Michael Tannenbaum and Chief Technology Officer Cosmin Nicolaescu, had decided to leave the company.
“It was extremely painful,” Franceschi said. “Frustrating, unpleasant, sad, disappointing—you have relationships with these folks.” As Dubugras later added: “Look, people come to work for you—you sell them a dream, and they come to work for you. And this was no one’s expectation when they joined, and it sucks. If I was in their position, I’d be pissed. I get it.”
It’s a sharp reversal in fortune for Franceschi, 27, and Dubugras, 28, whose startup became especially dependent on other startups’ growth during the unicorn era. Now the pair’s predicament presents a picture in miniature of bigger forces at play in Silicon Valley, offering a singular gauge of the rest of the tech industry’s health.
The Brex cuts were an acknowledgment that the fintech, which had bragged publicly about downing giant rivals like American Express, had simply grown too big in recent years; that it hadn’t worked hard to manage its dreams with great prudence; and that it would very much need to do so going forward or risk crumbling under the pressure and expectations attached to its most recent valuation: a $12.3 billion price tag from 2022 that had made the founders billionaires, at least on paper.
During the last several years, “it was faster to hire people than it was to increase efficiency and productivity,” Dubugras acknowledged. “And then the market turned, and efficiency matters a lot more.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-brex-boys-uncomfortable-reckoning
9. Every startup founder should listen to this conversation. It will help raise your game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0XO88lZEaE&t=598s
10. "All in all, the still-high rates of violence, alcoholism, and divorce, together with the low rates of church-going and child-rearing, do not paint a picture of a close-knit traditional society that compensates for material poverty with supportive community ties.
I think that an increasing number of people on the American Right subscribe to a sort of romantic Russophilia, in which they conceive of Russia as the antithesis of everything they don’t like about the modern U.S.
Ultimately, though, Russia’s continued dysfunction isn’t a reason for Americans like me to gloat or laugh or give each other high fives. Instead, I think it serves as an important warning: National greatness doesn’t make a country a good place to live.
Putin has certainly done things to improve life for regular Russians, but his most important actions have all been about the revival of Russian power on the international stage. He has engaged in a series of wars, culminating in the current invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, he has built the entire Russian media into a nonstop engine of propaganda about what a great and powerful country Russia is — sort of a 2003 Fox News on steroids. To the Americans who entertain Russophile fantasies, Russia’s most important selling point is that it’s an empire that can — at least in their minds — kick other countries’ asses.
I worry that the U.S. also fell into a trap like this, in the 20th century and the early 21st. Our country was big and powerful and had a dozen aircraft carriers, but our transit systems were decaying, our families were breaking down, we weren’t building enough new housing, our service industries were becoming severely overpriced, drug addiction became rampant, and our cities suffered levels of violence that, even after a huge decrease, would still be intolerable in the rest of the developed world. Like the Russians, we consumed a lot of national greatness, and not enough national effectiveness."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/russia-is-not-actually-a-very-nice
11. More or Less, great debate on what’s happening in tech this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVvxAIBowVs
12. Important discussion on why Pharma industry is kind of mess despite the critical factor they play in our healthcare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1u70kAohCc
13. "The global economic convulsion that would follow an interruption of Taiwanese chips could well exceed those caused by the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The hedge fund manager Ken Griffin has estimated that losing access to Taiwanese semiconductors would shave five to ten percent off U.S. GDP. “It’s an immediate Great Depression,” he assessed in 2022.
Taiwan is in a sense the West Berlin of the new cold war unfolding between Beijing and the free world. It is an outpost of liberty, prosperity, and democracy living in the shadow of an authoritarian superpower. Just as Stalin tested the free world 76 years ago by blockading Berlin, Xi is now testing it with rising pressure on Taiwan."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/taiwan-catastrophe
14. Don't know him personally but Steve Jang has a great rep in the business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut0SrT2tfrs
15. "Space was once something of a career killer for a military officer like Rogers, a place for nerds and science fiction fans — not folks headed to major command positions.
That’s because, over most of the past 20 years, America’s enemies have generally been earthbound. The likes of the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS did not have any assets in orbit. A post-Cold War Russia could no longer challenge the US on the ground, let alone in space, while China lacked the technology and cash to do so.
But space still mattered because America’s unquestioned military superiority depended on its equally superior technology in space. More than any other country, the US relies on fleets of orbital spacecraft to communicate with its far-flung military forces, to guide precision weaponry against enemy targets, and to discover those targets through high-altitude surveillance using cameras, radar, and sensors that can intercept radio and other forms of communication. And just as the US military seemed untouchable on Earth, the same seemed true for its orbital assets.
Now, American generals have realized that rivals like China are no longer merely focused on being able to attack US space assets; they are building the tools they need in space to fight the same way the US does — to “find, fix, track targets and attack our joint terrestrial forces,” as Gen. Moore puts it. And that calls for a different set of tactics for an organization that once seemed to fly above the fray."
16. "Build the process, follow the process, and the end result is an active pipeline of great candidates with an understanding of where they are on their own timing schedule and the potential to bring them on the team.
Entrepreneurs would do well to think through the role timing in recruiting talent and always remember the old adage: The best time to start recruiting for that great person was years ago, and the second-best time to start is now."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/02/17/the-role-of-timing-in-recruiting-talent/
17. "In perusing the Global South’s exploitation of the West’s obsession with climate change, one can’t help but feel for the citizens of Germany. Having watched their leaders sacrifice so much of their country’s prosperity, they must now confront the reality of what was gained in return. “Nothing” will be a bitter, utterly predictable pill to swallow."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/dirty-secret
18. "This three day structure has given me some useful constraints. It’s forced me to prioritize what matters even more and also to be a lot quicker with how I make decisions. Also, since our daughter naps three hours a day and crashes at 7:30 there’s actually still a lot more wiggle room to tinker away at things like this newsletter if I run out of time. We don’t “go to work” and are usually at home most days so theres a lot of flexibility with our approach.
If I’m sitting at my desk and my daughter is laughing in the other room, I usually can’t help myself. But it’s been nice to have space to prioritize “me” after putting Angie and our daughter first for most of the past year. Before doing the three blocked days, I felt guilty doing anything for myself. Before she was born, I sort of just did stuff whenever and it worked. I had enough time for myself and did the work that mattered to me. But after adding a kid to the mix, go-with-the-flow was no longer viable."
https://newsletter.pathlesspath.com/p/why-im-working-three-day-a-week-257
19. "Young men are especially susceptible to gambling addiction. Games of chance hold more initial appeal for them, because men are wired to be more risk-seeking than women and less averse to potential losses. (Note: There are upsides to this — men are more likely to take heroic risks in battle or start a company.)
However, once they play, young men are less able to resist the addictive cycle, because their prefrontal cortex develops more slowly. Think of the prefrontal cortex as the adult in the room, someone with common sense who can see beyond the next dopamine hit. When boys reach adolescence, they experience greater muscle growth than girls do, but behind the eyes, girls are making more important gains: Their prefrontal cortexes mature sooner, giving them greater ability to overcome the reward circuits with rational thought. Every study I’ve read on adolescent development can best be summarized as: While boys are physically stronger, girls are emotionally and mentally stronger.
Sports betting and stock trading are tailor-made to exploit these systems, and they’re particularly attractive to young men, as they don’t present as games of pure chance but tests of skill."
https://www.profgalloway.com/dopa-bowl/
20. "But in venture? You're not just in a relationship business. You're in a relationship business with targets that have constantly fluctuating value. Pass on a seed today? It might be the hottest Series A next year. Annoy a Stripe operator on Twitter? They might be the next "hot" founder. Mistreat a CTO in one company? They might leave and never want to take your money when they start their own company.
As a result? Most VCs became spineless, submissive, love-hungry puppies that will do anything for anyone's validation. This leads to several unfortunate realities about most VCs:
(1) they're skeptical of anyone who likes them,
(2) they're rarely honest about when they might be wrong, and, most importantly,
(3) they're usually incapable of providing valuable feedback"
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-trough-of-feedback
21. Africa is the future? Good case for African stocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQBp6wCOPD0
22. Masterclass on living an awesome and impactful life with Luke Belmar.
Be impatient about the inputs, not the outputs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4h6_QQQ1PCE
23. You can never listen to too much Luke Belmar. One of the wisest people on the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eI-2y7Q-xpk
24. The OG of the internet. Tai Lopez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qA1xxTI3X_k&t=457s
25. Really useful conversation on the LP mindset and how GPs should be thinking about liquidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boNJ5mSx5u0&t=2510s
26. "Something very predictable happened in our quarter century roadtrip on the way to Tomorrowland; we realized instead we wound up on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride instead.
I would like the record to show here in 2QFY24 that this exact problem was discussed in detail back when I was a JO in the mid-1990. This is not shocking to anyone who is wearing the uniform of a GOFO. They lived the same history I did.
We knew we were living a lie that we could sustain a big fight at sea. An entire generation of Flag Officers led this lie in the open and ordered everyone else to smile through it. Ignore your professional instincts, and trust The Smartest People in the Room™."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/the-wages-of-taking-your-mba-to-war
27. "The expectation that if you have a startup doing well, you’ll raise more money to grow faster and capture more market share doesn’t always materialize. For entrepreneurs, the best strategy is to figure out how to control your own destiny by creating a business, funding strategy, and growth strategy that not only generates tremendous value but also allows for some control and influence over it.
Just because investors say they reserve follow-on funds for their portfolio companies doesn’t mean you’ll be able to tap into those reserves, even if your company is performing well. Ask your investors regularly where they stand for future funding."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/02/10/investor-reserves-didnt-go-to-the-expected-companies/
28. "It never ceases to amaze me when I hear people talk about the defense budget as if there were a certain number of dollars that would provide an optimal level of national defense. In this fantasy world, incredibly smart analysts crunch numbers, the Department of Defense creates a bill for the Office of Management and Budget, and this bill is then presented to the Congress—who pays it unflinchingly because of the obvious wisdom of the thinking that went into it, not to mention the unquestioned non-parochialism of the legislators involved.
This is not how things are done. The inefficiency, the pork, the parochialism, the horse trading, the compromise—these are not bugs. This is the system. And it is this system that drives defense spending. Because there are no “point solutions”, there will always be inefficiency. That inefficiency gets papered over by additional resources. Lather, rinse, repeat.
What often tends to be attributed to the military-industrial complex as undue influence is more often than not, an imperfect method of Congress allocating resources among contending claimants. After mucking around in this world for a while, I have come to conclude that the closer we come to a perfect system of resource allocation, the farther away from representative democracy we will be. It is not pretty, but it is the military-industrial (Congressional) complex, and it works."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/in-praise-of-the-military-industrial
29. "Several critical developments are now coming together to accelerate the progress of biotechnology exponentially, shifting us to a future where reliable predictive models enable us to engineer complex biological systems quickly and easily instead of relying on today’s brute force strategy of expensive wet lab experimentation.
Three fundamental shifts are enabling this: First, advances in AI are making truly predictive models for biology possible; second, the rapidly decreasing cost of running biological experiments to generate data for those models, driven by innovations in lab automation and robotics; and third, our ability to quickly engineer animal and plant cells through technologies like CRISPR."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/were-entering-a-golden-age-of-engineering
30. Fascinating discussion on Korean culture and the Kpop wave across the globe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhFLuoSqpOU&t=553s
31. SF is back!
"During the pandemic, scores of Silicon Valley investors and executives such as Rabois decamped to sunnier American cities, criticizing San Francisco’s dysfunctional governance and high cost of living. Tech-firm founders touted their success at raising money outside the Bay Area and encouraged their employees to embrace remote work.
Four years later, that bet hasn’t really worked out. San Francisco is once again experiencing a tech revival. Entrepreneurs and investors are flocking back to the city, which is undergoing a boom in artificial intelligence. Silicon Valley leaders are getting involved in local politics, flooding city ballot measures and campaigns with tech money to make the city safer for families and businesses. Investors are also pushing startups to return to the Bay Area and bring their employees back into the office.
San Francisco has largely weathered the broader crunch in startup funding. Investment in Bay Area startups dropped 12% to $63.4 billion last year. By contrast, funding volumes for Austin, Texas, and Los Angeles, two smaller tech hubs, dropped 27% and 42%, respectively. In Miami, venture investment plunged 70% to just $2 billion last year."
https://archive.ph/mT6qm#selection-5967.0-5971.159
32. A valuable and instructive conversation on venture capital & LPs from one of the best performers in VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNJn_xIm2Dk
33. This is pretty cool.
34. Great discussion on AI Investing. Worth listening to if you are a VC nerd like me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=socH3hAUx3w
35. Always nuggets of insight on the VC biz.
Blind Leading the Blind: Copycatting in Emerging Markets
I spend a lot of time traveling through emerging startup ecosystems across Asia, Latam, Europe and one of the most common things I see are copycats of business models that started in America. Things like marketplaces, food delivery, ride sharing and even micro mobility Ie. Stupid scooters like Lime or Bird.
And it makes sense, in their eyes, if it seems to work in the USA so it must work in their country or city. As a founder you copy the business model and remove business model risk. All you have to do is figure out the specific market and cultural issues and solve for it. You become the regional giant and then sell out to the big US players who come to your country later. Or become a big awesomely profitable & independent regional player. Great success!! (As per Borat :)
But there is a small wrinkle here. What if that business model doesn’t actually work in the original USA. And its issues and things like negative unit economics were papered over by massive amounts of VC money.
Obviously there are exceptions to the rule like Getir in Turkey or Glovo in Spain & parts of the emerging Europe for food and grocery delivery. Or Allegro group which is exceptionally good in marketplaces across CEE region. Or Bolt in ride sharing that is doing very well across most of Europe. Or Grab in Southeast Asia for ridesharing and payments. Digital decolonization is a real thing.
But like I said before these tend to be exceptions. So the point for founders (and Local VCs), do your homework and don’t blindly copycat.
It goes without saying: don’t equate big VC funding rounds with working business models. Especially from 2018 to 2021. Perfect example being Bird scooters. What a disaster zone, having raised at least $600M usd and now worth much less publicly than the total amount of VC $$ raised. Which goes to show you how far hype can take you. (Or how deluded venture capitalists can get, saying this as a VC myself).
You can absolutely learn from these American startups but also must understand the X-factor. Ie. What is the local situation, infrastructure and customer readiness that underlies and drives them. And does this business model even make sense locally.
You need to really dig into all the idiosyncrasies of the business model you are copying and seeing how they fit locally. Reach out and talk to VCs or even the founders or C-levels of these American companies. You’d be surprised about how open most founders will be to another founder, especially one in a completely different region.
I’d also recommend following the lean startup methodology and do lots of customer validation tests on the customer segments & testing receptiveness of your region. Don’t go into full on build mode without doing this first.
Assuming you start getting some traction here, really focus on understanding your go to market and unit economics and whether they can work as you grow. In other words, following the title of one of the most underrated startup books around “Nail it and Scale it.” (by Furr and Ahlstrom)
It’s a good practice in general for most startups whether copycatting or not.
Fear and Self Loathing: The Result of Not Betting on Yourself
I find myself in dark moods sometimes. Almost 50 and feeling like I have not really accomplished anything. I’ve done well. But can’t say I’ve done well enough to where I thought I would be if I am truly honest with myself. Especially compared to all the younger, smarter, folks around me.
I can make excuses that growing up where and in the circumstances that I did, that entrepreneurship and investing was just not an option. That I was just not exposed to the possibility although I was exposed to wealth around me.
But these are just excuses. I’ve spent 25+ years in Silicon Valley where I’ve missed so many opportunities in front of me because I was ignorant, uneducated, blind or in most cases lacked the courage to take it on. Because I did not believe in myself or have the guts to bet on myself.
I threw myself into a career making a lot of money for others and without building real equity. All the while intentionally and unintentionally sacrificing my family life that had led to it becoming an ongoing source of pain.
I did not wake up to this until much later in life. And now, overall my life in general is so much better than it ever was, all because I finally woke up and bet on myself. Doing my thing and working with other fellow entrepreneurs who share my values and drive.
It’s also a great time to do so as Dan Koe writes:
“The individual has more power than ever, they can
- Reach millions of people online
- Access any information they want
- Build a massively profitable business
- Use digital tools that have consolidated 10-100 employees' worth of work
It's foolish to let this period pass you by.”
https://twitter.com/thedankoe/status/1679883703286210561
So I implore those who are thinking of taking the entrepreneurial path, Do it now. People are bad at risk management. They overestimate the actual risks but underestimate their own ability to overcome the inevitable challenges that will come your way.
Yes, You will have really tough and bad days as an entrepreneur but give it at least 2 years. Stick with it and you will be inevitably rewarded emotionally & psychically from building something from scratch, and eventually monetarily from the value you provide to people. And if it does not work, you will have learned so much which you will eventually find some way to monetize. I’ve written before, entrepreneurship is the ultimate exercise in personal development.
In the world of globalized talent, automation and AI, being a creative entrepreneur may be the only path to surviving and thriving.
Getting into the Right Rooms: The Universal Law of The Most Successful People
I remember an amazing trip I had to Brisbane, Australia for the Myriad Conference in 2018. They chartered a plane for a bunch of us from San Francisco. It was one of the best tech conferences I’ve been to.
I met so many amazing people on this trip. One of them was Shaan Puri who was telling me about a group of friends and people he got together with regularly. What we now call a Mastermind.
Fast forward 6 years I found out this group of people were some pretty damn impressive people. At that time, up and comers, but now very successful and influential people like Shaan & Sam Parr (of the Hustle and My First Million Podcast), Nikita Bier, Josh Buckley, Xavier Helgesen and Sieva Kosinsky of Enduring Ventures & Romeen Sheth among others. All of whom have become Silicon Valley creators, entrepreneurial & investing giants.
Another impressive group of people that I found out masterminded their mutual rise on Twitter together since 2020 was Greg Isenberg, Sahil Bloom, Nick Huber and Julian Shapiro, Nikita Bier, as well as Shaan Puri and Sam Parr again. They have a combined audience of several million followers on social media. A WOW group of people here.
It’s like a flock of Canadian geese, you lift each other up when flying in motion. People are copy monkeys or as René Girard coined “mimetic”. You naturally copy others. So make sure you are copying the best people.
These groups matter for your business and for your own personal development. It’s critical to be in the right rooms with people on the same trajectory with. People you respect, people going down the same journey as you, people you can ask for advice and learn from. People who you can trade notes with and commiserate with.
It’s incredibly valuable. There is actually a paid community called Hampton for multi million dollar CEOs. Or its equivalent called Dynamite Club, designed specifically for e-commerce business owners.
I’ve joined a bunch myself. I’m part of the ex-500 Startups fund managers group who actually manage more AUM than our alumnus now.
I’m part of the Leveling Mastermind run by Eric Siu of multimillionaire business owners of various DTC, Crypto, Agency or Outsourcing businesses. Amazing group of people here.
As a global macro investor, I’m part of Radigan Carter’s The Fortress Community.
Of course, I’m part of the Diaspora VC community of our LPs, who are all mainly successfully exited HNW tech founders as well as our Diaspora portfolio founders.
I’ve also built my own informal mastermind since 2020, of some investor, founder and HNW/Family Office friends I talk with every 2-4 weeks religiously. It’s critical to keep myself accountable but probably more critically having regular opportunities to learn new things from smart people.
As I’ve repeated many times, you are the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with. So get in the right rooms to make this work for you.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 10th, 2024
“The world breaks everyone, and afterward, some are strong at the broken places.” - Ernest Hemingway
"Many people asked, or challenged, that due to modern technology and the future being so different from the past, these historic cycles may no longer apply to us.
It is easy to understand this point of view. Our world is more connected, more centralized, and more rapidly evolving than any empire in history, and as a consequence, the old rules may not apply.
But since it is easy to make that argument, today I will argue the opposite - that it is not different this time, and nothing has changed.
I will argue that the cycles of history are driven by human nature, and not by the available technology."
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/it-is-not-different-this-time-and
2. "A decade ago, while doing some writing and thinking for the CJCS (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), I came up with the concept of the Zero-day war. The Zero-day war concept leveraged my earlier work on Global Guerrillas (see my book “Brave New War” for more).
It combines;
--infiltration (deep penetration of an enemy’s territory, systems, and society),
--technological leverage (leveraging and modifying commercially available technology to super-empower small groups/individuals), and
--amplification from systems disruption (the ability to easily disrupt large, tightly coupled, and interconnected networks through small attacks, causing cascades of chaos)
to completely overwhelm an adversary for a short period (a couple of days or weeks) by catastrophically disrupting the complex and tightly interconnected networks (energy, transportation, communications, etc.) a modern society is completely and utterly dependent upon."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/zero-day-wars
3. Long been a fan of Nomad Capitalist's work. Go where you are treated best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9-b3dEDkIQ&t=1818s
4. A far out there take but yes, Australia and Japan are big regional powers. Not sure if China will disappear as he says.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eejRr-oP6hw
5. "But in any case, a global trade war is brewing. Arguments that countries should go back to embracing free trade, so that their consumers can have slightly cheaper goods, are likely to fall on deaf ears.
The best thing we can do now is to try to make sure that whatever trade barriers countries do throw up are consistent with their objectives, and have as few self-destructive side effects as possible."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/tariffs-are-coming
6. "But after two years of war, the adaptation battle has changed. The quality gap between Ukraine and Russia has closed. Ukraine still has an innovative and bottom-up military culture, which allows it to quickly introduce new battlefield technologies and tactics.
But it can struggle to make sure that those lessons are systematized and spread throughout the entire armed forces. Russia, on the other hand, is slower to learn from the bottom up because of a reluctance to report failure and a more centralized command philosophy. Yet when Russia does finally learn something, it is able to systematize it across the military and through its large defense industry.
These differences are reflected in the ways the two states innovate. Ukraine is better at tactical adaptation: learning and improving on the battlefield. Russia is superior at strategic adaptation, or learning and adaptation that affects national and military policymaking, such as how states use their resources. Both forms of adaptation are important. But it is the latter type that is most crucial to winning wars.
The longer this war lasts, the better Russia will get at learning, adapting, and building a more effective, modern fighting force. Slowly but surely, Moscow will absorb new ideas from the battlefield and rearrange its tactics accordingly. Its strategic adaptation already helped it fend off Ukraine’s counteroffensive, and over the last few months it has helped Russian troops take more territory from Kyiv.
Ultimately, if Russia’s edge in strategic adaptation persists without an appropriate Western response, the worst that can happen in this war is not stalemate. It is a Ukrainian defeat."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russias-adaptation-advantage
7. Deeply insightful discussion on seed venture capital and what’s happening now. Net net: it's damn hard to be good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8nzScuxuvo
8. "Summary: If you plan on being well off, a high paying W-2 could get you into the top 10% pretty comfortably. If you want to be in the top 1% you are only fooling yourself if you think the best path (probability wise) is a career - the math will prove you wrong even without normal life events - kids, layoffs and standard sudden expenses.
Getting Ahead Now
Fortunately for you there are a few things that the boomers and middle managers don’t understand. They don’t understand: 1) AI tools, 2) crypto currencies, 3) video editing, 4) AR/VR use cases and 5) network effects.
If they understood any of these things they wouldn’t have stayed in middle management, they would have built the requisite skills and asset base to leave sooner than later.
All of these skills are easy to learn today with zero need for a a $200,000 degree from some top MBA program with a 20-30% unemployment rate. Just up to you to decide if you’re going to try and get into the top 1%."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/want-to-be-the-1-get-used-to-building
9. "VC money has been burning to fuel the growth of this technology to its success. Now it’s trying to find product market fit. Will they find a sustainable business model before server costs eat their runway?
Who knows.
But when selling a strict AI company product (like OpenAI), what will people pay for a chatbot? People may be paying 20 dollars a month, but that doesn’t cover the server costs. Especially now where someone can run a full model on their laptop without safety constraints.
We haven’t seen many successful businesses yet. Because everyone has pitched and drank the Kool-aid that AI can do everything. But it can’t."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/the-future-of-ai
10. "European states must therefore start operating on the assumption that Trump will win—and in that case they will be left on their own to look after their security. It will require a very different mindset than has existed since 1945, and a willingness to be decisive in a way that does not come natural to European states."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/what-europe-must-do-now-in-10-steps
11. "The slowing Chinese economy may be a canary in the coal mine to other financial markets that the effects of the fastest rate hiking cycle in recent memory (with record global debt levels) have not been fully felt yet.
The speed of this downturn may be shocking to some, but I am relatively unsurprised. The Chinese stock market is littered with frauds, scams, pump and dumps, and blatant corruption.
Officials are paid to look the other way, auditors don’t care about the accuracy of reports, and due diligence is essentially a non-starter. I was awakened to the depth of the problems in China in 2018 when watching The China Hustle, a documentary on the fraudulent listing of Chinese equities on U.S. exchanges and how retail investors were exploited."
https://dollarendgame.substack.com/p/crisis-in-shanghai
12. "The magic is not in filling out forms or watching cute videos about your product, it’s about using your product as quickly as possible. As a result, the only acceptable forms of friction are ones that ultimately enhance the users ability to have a great experience.
Thus product is much better experienced as an app, where you have a notifications channel and a richer experience, then, by all means, ask the user to download something. If a product is much better, when used with colleagues or friends, that it might make sense to take a lower conversion rate during the sign-up flow in exchange for some sharing or inviting functionality, that brings more people into the app.
Ultimately, it’s all a trade-off, where every click drops off a huge number of users, so you need to spend that user intent very very well."
https://andrewchen.com/every-time-you-ask-the-user-click-you-lose-half/
13. "Don’t get distracted by only watching the United States and western central banks. They may be still tightening at the moment, but there is trouble brewing in the eastern world. This is going to bring an estimated $2 trillion of liquidity into the market. If that happens, investment assets globally will likely benefit.
We live in a digital, hyper-connected world today. Your local geography can have an impact on you, but the global liquidity situation is the final boss. And it appears the Chinese are about to give a gift to the world."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-chinese-are-about-to-give-a-gift
14. This is a tough forecast. But better to hear an informed view that rings true and the dishonesty we hear in mainstream media. Geopolitics in USA and across the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-uaiU4f6ZM
15. I always learn from Luke Belmar. His perspective is fresh and very smart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4h6_QQQ1PCE&t=2076s
16. "The Silicon Valley part of me is genuinely excited about the alternative forms of governance being dreamed up today, from network states and charter cities to seasteading and space colonies. Our sclerotic institutions absolutely need more competition. But the realities of violence in the physical world mean the Pentagon part of me can't let the claim that World War III is an impossibility go unchallenged.
What I’ll be arguing in this post is that “sovereignty” is a word that will continue to be inextricably linked to controlling a powerful military. Even if the vast majority of nation-states cease to exist and are replaced by network states, those network states will be forced to either build their own powerful militaries or rely on the remaining nation-states that do have large militaries.
It is indeed possible that the scale of warfare falls in the future, but it won’t be because states are unable to finance a massive conflict or lack the incentives to initiate one; rather, some state(s) will be so capable of winning a war that adversaries will not initiate conflict. Classic deterrence through technological superiority remains our greatest hope for peace."
https://www.elysian.press/p/military-without-nation-states
17. Masterful conversation on how top VCs think and the philosophy behind excellence in startup investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2tzHNQddnI
18. Poland is well positioned for the future whatever happens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRoDjUcVOPY
19. "Most countries suffer from at least a diluted version of this problem. But the West, and within the West the United States particularly, seems these days to be incapable of long-term thinking, or of sustaining any memory of even the relatively recent past. This means that almost any unexpected event is destabilising and inexplicable, because nobody has been studying long-term trends.
Such disparate examples as the Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or the rebuilding of the Russian defence industry over the last fifteen years, were prepared and undertaken in plain sight: it’s just that nobody was paying attention to them until their irruption into the news cycle made them unmissable. Likewise, nobody in the West can really analyse their long-term consequences properly, because we no longer have the capability or the inclination to do long-term thinking.
The result is panic and confusion, and the search for simple explanations, because the myopic western system cannot accommodate the almost infinite complexity of the real world.
This combination of a brutal word-view based on crude assumptions about hegemony, an attention-span insufficient to boil an egg competently, and an inability and a disinclination to imagine futures except as variants of the present, means that any genuinely significant change produces stupefaction and panic in the capitals of the West."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/the-newer-world-order
20. Fascinating discussion on Africa and its future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaZzr_skxt4&t=925s
21. "Named after the mystical seeing stones in The Lord of the Rings, Palantir sells the same aura of omniscience. Seeded in part by an investment from the CIA’s venture-capital arm, it built its business providing data-analytics software to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the FBI, the Department of Defense, and a host of foreign-intelligence agencies. “They are the AI arms dealer of the 21st century,” says Jacob Helberg, a national-security expert who serves as an outside-policy adviser to Karp. In Ukraine, Karp tells me, he saw the opportunity to fulfill Palantir’s mission to “defend the West” and to “scare the f-ck out of our enemies.”
Ukraine saw an opportunity too. At first it was driven by desperation, says Fedorov, 33. With the Russians threatening to topple Zelensky’s democratically elected government and occupy the country, Kyiv needed all the help it could get. But soon, government officials realized they had a chance to develop the country’s own tech sector. From European capitals to Silicon Valley, Fedorov and his deputies began marketing the battlefields of Ukraine as laboratories for the latest military technologies. “Our big mission is to make Ukraine the world’s tech R&D lab,” Fedorov says.
The progress has been striking. In the year and a half since Karp’s initial meeting with Zelensky, Palantir has embedded itself in the day-to-day work of a wartime foreign government in an unprecedented way. More than half a dozen Ukrainian agencies, including its Ministries of Defense, Economy, and Education, are using the company’s products. Palantir’s software, which uses AI to analyze satellite imagery, open-source data, drone footage, and reports from the ground to present commanders with military options, is “responsible for most of the targeting in Ukraine,” according to Karp.
Ukraine and its private-sector allies say they are playing a longer game: creating a war lab for the future. Ukraine “is the best test ground for all the newest tech,” Fedorov says, “because here you can test them in real-life conditions.” Says Karp: “There are things that we can do on the battlefield that we could not do in a domestic context.”
https://time.com/6691662/ai-ukraine-war-palantir/
22. “We’re going to see 10-person companies with billion-dollar valuations pretty soon…in my little group chat with my tech CEO friends there’s this betting pool for the first year there is a one-person billion-dollar company, which would’ve been unimaginable without AI. And now [it] will happen.”
Altman’s idea is that AI tools will soon reach the point where they can replicate the entire output of human employees. Instead of needing to hire a designer, you can use GPT-6 to design for you. There will be far less need for software engineers (meh), sales staff (no one will miss them), and newsletter writers (a tragedy of Greek proportions, leaving our society barren and empty).
An ambitious founder could outsource the work they would use employees for to an army of artificial intelligence agents. Theoretically, this would allow entrepreneurs to focus on only tackling their most important competitive advantage.
This is a claim worth examining, not just because I would like to be the first person to build that billion-dollar company. The one-person billion-dollar company matters because it is a handy way to understand how AI will disrupt knowledge work. In a good world, Altman’s prediction would come true because AI would allow people to build something whatever they can dream up. In a bad world, it would become true because AI will make most people’s jobs irrelevant, concentrating power in the hands of the elites."
https://every.to/napkin-math/the-one-person-billion-dollar-company
23. "In fact, Bangladesh is embedded in a larger mega-region — South and Southeast Asia, together home to 2.4 billion people — that is seeing rapid, broadly distributed growth and pockets of intense industrialization. This, I believe, is the most important development story of our time. Perhaps Africa’s turn will come a bit later, but South and Southeast Asia are ready now, and 2.4 billion people is a very large number.
In my opinion, to tell these countries to give up on industrialization right now, at the cusp of their big moment, and to refocus on nontradable services instead, would be to do them a deep disservice. Instead, I think they should keep trying the traditional model of development, taking advantage of trends like friend-shoring and de-riskingto encourage FDI and build up their manufacturing sectors. If that model eventually breaks, then it breaks, and we find something else. But from where I’m sitting, it doesn’t look broken yet."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/do-poor-countries-need-a-new-development
24. "Whether you are founding a Web 2 or Web 3 startup, acquiring and retaining users is the most challenging and expensive aspect of your business. In Web 2, which was most prevalent from 2010 to 2020, a VC fund looked for startups with a modicum of initial traction and subsequently provided cash money rocket fuel for the startup to go on a user acquisition spree.
Usually that entails handing out the service for free or at a discounted rate, well below its actual cost of delivery. Remember when ride-sharing apps were all fighting viciously for market share, and fares were incredibly cheap? That was all paid for with billions of dollars worth of VC money. Think of it as a subsidy in return for users.
At the end of the rainbow for a VC firm was a successful initial public offering (IPO). The IPO allowed the plebes to own a piece of a successful Web 2 company for the first time. IPOs are the way to dump on retail in TradFi. However, various regulations barred the plebes from crowdfunding early-stage Web 2 companies. The irony is that the vast number of plebe users who drove the success of the company were prohibited from owning a piece of it.
Bitcoin and the subsequent evolution of the crypto capital markets changed this. As of 2009 – the genesis Bitcoin block – it became possible to reward participants with ownership in the startup. This is what I will refer to as Web 3 startups.
Before you could purchase Bitcoin on an exchange starting in 2010, mining it was the only way to acquire it. Miners, by burning electricity, validate transitions, which creates and upkeeps the network. For this activity, they are rewarded with newly minted Bitcoin.
Participation = Ownership
The participants or users now have skin in the game."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/points-guard
25. "So viewed through that lens, the unifying pattern of Trump, Elon, and Kanye is that at their core, they're putting on a show. A massive, unlimited duration, infinitely varying, endlessly fascinating show — the greatest shows on earth. And that show attracts attention, yes, but also votes, feet in the street, shareholder investment, car sales, music sales, sneaker sales, etc.
And that’s why you can’t get the good of Trump, Elon, or Kanye without the bad. The bad is part of the appeal, the bad is what shows it’s authentic; and probably powers the engine — the torture that keeps them going.
A hero is universally loved within a society, an anti-hero is hated by double digit percentages. Until new borders are established, this is a time of anti-heroes.
When Slave Morality is embraced by the establishment, the word “hero” today often means victim: Greta and the like.
And when Master Morality is demonized, traits like strength, masculinity, power, tribalism, are seen as anti-hero traits. Batman, Punisher, Donald Trump, Kyle Rittenhouse, 2nd Amendment, Andrew Tate — the mood of the right is not hero but anti-hero. The Republican establishment doesn’t want it, but the populace does.
Strap in, because for better and for worse, I think we’re only going to get more people following the Elon, Trump, and Kanye playbooks."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-anti-heroes
26. A must listen for anyone in the technology biz. BG2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgvoYJvbNT8
27."The result is that the US now finds itself operating in two strategic eras at the same time. In one, heavily armed industrial militaries fight a catastrophic war over a chunk of Europe (with a potentially even more catastrophic invasion scenario lurking in Asia). And in another, a Yemeni rebel group using rudimentary drone and missile technology shows itself capable of causing a disruption to global supply chains on par with Covid-19.
To comprehend this chaotic era — one in which nation-states boast historically destructive firepower but in many ways appear weaker than ever, unable to mobilize their populations around a common call or control their international environment — we need to go beyond the well-worn 20th-century analogies. We need to get medieval."
28. "Meta was able to simultaneously slim down and muscle up in part because its pandemic weight gain was so large. The empty calories of 2020-21 resulted in fatty deposits forming firm-wide. That’s been obvious, but the more interesting question is whether we are witnessing Meta go Black Mirror. Is AI the firm’s Ozempic? Preorders of Nvidia enterprise GPUs are a decent proxy for a firm’s investment in AI, and Meta has ordered more than any company in the world. (Tied with MSFT.) Does this mean the companies in the chart below are about to shed 10% to 25% of their weight/workforce while maintaining revenue growth?
The Ozemping of Meta unlocked its operating margin, which increased from a respectable 20% to a staggering 41%. Meta exemplifies an “asset-light” model. Don’t own the car, apartment, chip plant, or content (the creators’ salaries) — build a thick layer of software on top of other people’s assets. Shein, which owns no stores, factories, warehouses, or even distribution centers, is using this strategy to become the fastest retailer to $1 billion in history.
Meta speedballs this with an addictive product in an unregulated market. Now, years of investment in AI might be adding another leg to the stool — virtual workers who don’t expect pet-bereavement leave."
https://www.profgalloway.com/metastasis/
29. This is such a great discussion on tech this week. Vision Pro and its implications. The next great platform?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIWJz2d9vJw
30. "Ethnic imperialism is exactly what we’re facing in Russia right now. Putin doesn’t want Ukraine’s wheat farms. Nor is he motivated by some world-conquering ideology. He simply wants Russia to rule over all the places he views as being within its historic and linguistic sphere of influence.
The question is where that sphere stops. Putin assured Carlson that he has no designs on Latvia or Poland. This rather pointedly leaves out Estonia, where 25% of the population are Russian speakers, and which Russia continually bullies despite its NATO membership. But the elephant in the room here is really Poland.
In other words, even if Ukraine falls, the fundamental conflict between Putin and the West will not diminish, because it’s really about Poland. Poland’s Western-backed success represents the major challenge to Russia’s domination of what Putin sees as its rightful sphere of influence. And as long as Poland is wealthy and strong and independent, Putin, with the 1600s still fresh in his mind, will always feel like Russia is under direct threat.
So Americans who imagine that letting Putin have Ukraine would put an end to the conflict in East Europe should come to their senses. As long as Poland is fully independent, economically successful, and militarily powerful, Putin will feel that Russia’s position as master of East Europe is insecure. In fact, until Russian leaders learn to respect and get along with Poland, I fear that conflicts like the present one will repeat themselves."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-ukraine-war-is-ultimately-about
31. "As for those countries that are in dire need of Africa’s minerals, they should stop the demagoguery and find a way to compete with China’s approach. It won’t be easy, for the West in particular. China has the advantage that it can negotiate government to government agreements, which African governments prefer, whereas the West relies on the corporate world to do its work for them.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is one nation taking on this challenge. To achieve its ambitious Vision 2030, it will need plenty of critical minerals and has turned its focus towards the “super region” which includes West Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Much like Chinese strategic planning, KSA also takes a long-term view to its own development and is in a position to negotiate government to government deals. It also has a lot of wealth it can deploy. Like, a lot.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) has committed to investing $25 billion towards clean energy by the end of the decade and looks to invest another $15 billion to acquire stakes in mineral projects in return for offtake agreements for the physical metals. Additionally, it proposed $10 billion to finance and ensure Saudi exports through 2030 and an additional $5 billion in development financing for African nations.
Interestingly, the Wall Street Journal, citing people with knowledge of the talks, reported that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are in talks to secure metals in Africa needed to help them with their energy transitions. This approach is smart and might solve America’s dilemma in competing with China. KSA, which has working relationships with all the great powers, is uniquely positioned to somewhat copy the Chinese approach.
The Kingdom is not the only recent entrant in Africa. Qatar, along with the UAE
(Saudi’s frenemy), and to a lesser extent Turkey, are also looking to invest in Africa. We can only hope they take a similar approach.
If we hope to avoid ongoing turmoil and deadly conflict in Africa, it’s imperative that the global community secures its mineral needs while creating an environment that will benefit the fast-growing population of ordinary Africans. These objectives do not need to be mutually exclusive."
32. An excellent episode this week on what’s up in tech. Great discussion on investing and building AI businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHO4hoXc75k
33. "So here we are in 2024. All signs point to this being a pivotal year in the global contest. On one hand, China’s weakening economy is making the New Axis a less menacing opponent, but this transition is very slow and marginal. On the other hand, U.S. domestic political turmoil threatens to remove it from the equation, thus leaving China a free hand in Asia. And all the while, the war in Gaza festers on, diverting U.S. attention and resources from the far more important theater in Asia.
In other words, the U.S. election may offer the New Axis the chance to win Cold War 2 at a stroke. Without American power, Asia — and eventually, Eurasia — effectively belongs to Xi Jinping.
Even if Biden manages to rally and hold off a second Trump presidency, of course, U.S. aid for both Ukraine and Taiwan is in doubt. The so-called MAGA faction in Congress is trying to block a bill that would provide both countries with military aid, along with Israel. They don’t seem likely to give up that effort if Trump loses the election. And meanwhile, the war in Gaza and the Houthis’ attacks on shipping in the Red Sea appear likely to distract America’s attention, divert its navy, and siphon off military aid from the Asian theater.
So although the New Axis isn’t winning on every front — and may even get weaker in a decade or two — it has the chance to deal a decisive blow to the U.S.-led bloc in 2024. Only if the developed democracies can hang on and maintain internal stability and solid alliances in the short term will they be able to take advantage of Chinese economic weakness in the 2030s and 2040s."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/2024-could-be-the-pivotal-year-for
34. Still bullish in long run despite the recent drop in demand. This will be even more important with re-industrialization in West and boomers retiring.
"Non-automotive robots faired only slightly better last year, dropping 25%. According to A3, metal electronics manufacturing, food/consumer, medical and plastics/rubber saw the largest demand outside of automotive for the year.
A3 president Jeff Burnstein struck a hopeful note, stating, “While robotic sales were down over the year, 2023 ended with both an increase over the previous quarter and a nearly equal number of sales from automotive and non-automotive companies. Both are promising signs that more industries are becoming increasingly comfortable with automation overall.
While we expect to see automotive orders rise again, there’s little doubt that orders will increase from all non-automotive industries as they recognize how robots can help them overcome their unique challenges.”
https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/12/north-american-robot-orders-dropped-30-last-year/
35. "Beyond the opportunity for serendipty, the biggest reason to always take corp dev meetings is to open channels of communication. Should you ever need to spin up an acquisition process (or ramp up competitive offers), you’ll already have relationships with the people you need to speak with."
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/5-ways-to-improve-an-m-and-a-outcome
If Your Life Sucks, It’s Your Fault: Taking TOTAL Personal Ownership (My thousandth and ongoing reminder)
I was reading several Twitter exchanges recently and it reflects the dysfunction in the modern West these days. So many people complain about how their lives suck. Blaming their parents, their friends, their boss, the patriarchy, their government and even society. Blaming America. Everyone but themselves.
Yes, inequality exists. Yes, it’s unfair and it sucks. Yes, it does need to be recognized and called out sometimes. But ultimately this is a waste of valuable time and energy.
In fact if there is a matrix or cabal of greater controlling powers, they want you to waste time moaning, complaining and blaming others. It stops you from taking any action to better your life or situation. Yet it’s so much easier to blame others and try to tear them down, just look at the awful “midwits” on Twitter or the comments section of YouTube. It probably even feels good for a short period of time too.
But ultimately it just leads to your own downward spiral. And it’s why I have no time or patience for these whiny complaining losers. Especially if they are not actively trying to change their circumstances. And I admit I was once one of those people, complaining about a bad situation but not doing anything about it. Going nowhere fast in life. Until I woke up.
So when something bad happens to you, you must take full responsibility.
Fired from your job? That’s your fault because you did not do a good job or did not deliver results or have the EQ to get along better with your peers. Or I did not recognize fast enough about the organization and management changes and my mal-adaptation to these changes.
Have money problems? You did not understand the rules of money or save enough of an emergency fund.
Cheated by your business partners? You did not pay attention to their failings and the signs of their untrustworthiness.
Have family problems? Or does your partner want to leave you? You did not pay attention to them, you did not take care of business. You also probably did not focus on being the best version of yourself and the best option for them. Especially as a man. Your job as a man is to become strong of mind, body and finances. If you aren’t, why would your partner respect you?
I know this sounds harsh but I've experienced all of this myself. And in the last decade too. But I can tell you, the best way forward is just owning it, even though it hurts your ego.
Take the hard lesson from it. Oh and by the way, they are ALL hard lessons. Ponder and reflect on it & don’t beat yourself up too much. Easier said than done, as I am personally harsh on myself even though I know it’s not useful.
Come up with a plan, then fix the situation as well and fast as you can. Move on and don’t make the same mistake again. Life is supposed to be tough & you are supposed to suffer.
Get over it and go do the work, become capable and build a great life for yourself and your loved ones.
Or keep on complaining and blaming others, and stay stuck in where you are at, like all the other losers in life. The choice is yours.
As the brilliant Luke Belmar says: “Winners gonna win, Losers gonna lose.”
This is Why No One Will Remember Your Name: Why You Need to Do Hard, Difficult Things
There is an iconic scene in the old Hollywood blockbuster movie “Troy” starring Brad Pitt who plays the war hero Achilles.
He is woken from bed to fight the champions of the Trojans, a massive sized warrior. The young messenger says:
“The Thessalonian you are fighting, he’s the biggest man I’ve ever seen. I wouldn’t want to fight him.”
Achilles responds: “that’s why no one will ever remember your name.”
The lesson is very stark to me.
You can be a nobleman willing to risk his life in battle to save others. Or you can be a toiling peasant or messenger boy that just barely survives and ekes out a living, overlooked and unrespected.
So how are ancient war heroes like Achilles relevant to modern day life? It’s highly relevant.
Want to have a normal life without hardship. To be comfortable and not challenge yourself? To hide from pain and be unwilling to sacrifice anything. Unwilling to grow.
That is why you won’t go anywhere in life. That is why no one will remember your name because you have had little impact at all. This is why I would hate living full time in Canada or Western Europe. It’s great to visit but I can’t last more than 2 weeks there. The level of complacency and laziness drives me berserk. And people there find me a bit harsh and intense so i’m probably not welcomed there either.
This is why I prefer central and eastern Europe. Places where people generally have good work ethic and drive. Where they still want to do the work to better themselves. It’s because they have tasted bitterness as per Chinese parlance having grown up in the 90s when the Soviet Union completely collapsed. Unlike in the rest of Europe that has seen unprecedented levels of security, prosperity and socialism that has engendered a crap environment of decadence, comfort and entitlement.
Thankfully in this day and age, we usually do not have to fight anyone, although it’s probably a good idea to be trained for it just in case. So the person you are fighting is usually your own self.
Facing Your own bad habits, your own sloth and laziness and comfort and crushing them completely. Anyone who has done anything worthwhile in life is willing to face his/her own fears and challenge themselves to take action. Actions to better themselves and to better the lives of everyone around you. Otherwise you are a coward and no one respects or honors a coward.
Be Careful for What You Wish For: Life Gives You What You Want Not What You Need
It’s so ironic that as I am close to crossing the age of 50, it seems like I’ve gotten everything I’ve ever dreamed of. An interesting career, some financial success and freedom. A life jet-setting across the world investing and speaking at conferences. On the personal goals side I’m also eating well and buying, collecting & reading so many books. It’s like I manifested my childhood dreams.
But as people who know me well, I really valued and still really value family and home life. It was my refuge and source of stability as well as joy & happiness in a cold world of competition out there. As a Taurus I really value stability.
Sadly my family life has been a disaster zone because of neglect. I took it for granted. And you only realize it after you lose it. You hear the stories about other people but you never think it will happen to you. Humans only learn the hard way as always.
It’s really easy to optimize career and money. The metrics and scorecard are so much easier to track. It’s tangible in the short term.
Family and relationships on the other hand, tends to be intangible. And you usually don’t see the results for a long time. Just like building businesses and venture investing which you would think I would have clued in on this earlier. And like credit card debt, it compounds and you eventually will have to pay it.
I’m paying this price now. The price is expensive therapy costs for myself and family. The price is quiet lonely days on big holidays by myself when I should be celebrating with family. That and plenty of emotional pain that clouds all the other aspects of your life. Honestly, it sucks because there is no clear or obvious path to fixing it. And I only have myself to blame. I have alluded to this in the past few years.
So don’t make the same mistake I did. It’s a constant issue for ambitious type-A individuals; this is the trap. Work hard on your career and business, this is important. But also be equally thoughtful, dedicated & purposeful with your family and home life as well. You will pay for it eventually. And you don’t want this. Trust me on that.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 3rd, 2024
“Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars.” - Khalil Gibran
I find these breakdowns interesting. Tiger Woods on how he made his money (it's not just golf it’s mainly sponsorships).
https://manofmany.com/entertainment/sport/tiger-woods-net-worth
2. This is a must read for B2B startup founders.
https://www.vendr.com/insights/saas-trends-report-2023
3. So many great data points on what’s happening in Silicon Valley. Aileen is a 3 cycle investor. It's time to build and invest over the next 5 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psD8Wd5u-bM&t=10s
4. The Gamestop nuttiness summarized with some valuable lessons for retail investors.
"First, shorting mechanisms are badly abused in our markets. Some securities, like $GME, were able to be sold over 100% of the float. The 140% short interest on the stock was later found to be the maximum that the system could report. In reality, the stock was shorted around 220%, and even that might be conservative.
Second, financial media takes the side of the institutions, every time. The appeal to "retail investors" is a facade- it's a wonder that these news channels can even retain any of their legitimacy after this, with a notable example being Jim Cramer. Third, the clearinghouses, NSCC, and DTCC worked together to protect the brokers, short-sellers, and other firms who had been caught in this trade.
"Free and fair markets" was now clearly shown for what it was- A LIE."
https://dollarendgame.substack.com/p/gamestopped
5. "The national willpower, human cost, and treasure that it took to mentally and emotionally break them is hard to comprehend.
This isn’t a unique situation, people are pretty much the same around the world, human nature is a constant.
Watch the Battle of Algiers movie from 1966 to see the level of will required to win a counterinsurgency against a civilian population. But even then, it only worked for a time before the national French will required to exert their will on Algeria was no longer there.
This is what Israel is currently doing against Gaza and they know they are on the clock. They have limited time to break the will of the Palestinians before the will of their own people and the international will to support the level of violence required fades.
This is also why I think the US strikes in Yemen and the blood thirsty calls by ancient politicians to strike Iran who are risking nothing and should be in an old folks homes instead of clinging to power like Skeletor at Castle Grayskull is such a joke.
The US national will to exert the level of violence required against either of them to win is not there.
There is zero point to having aircraft carriers when the public is not committed to the level of violence necessary to make them the Houthis stop.
It is a fact the Houthis can take more pain than we can deliver since that is all they’ve known for last decade.
Americans can’t even take living without air conditioning, Houthis are having missiles and bombs dropped on their heads while wearing flip flops in 120 degree heat and chanting bring the pain while they keep launching missiles.
No amount of ordnance dropped on them is going to break dudes who have had tens of thousands of bombs dropped on them by Saudi Arabia already."
https://www.radigancarter.com/dispatches/warlord-economics
6. Getting inside an LPs mind. This is very instructive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihT5BHm4z2E
7. "Robust answers will require data and evidence that are not yet publicly available. But the best answer for now lies in the way the two sides, and especially the Russian defenders, used their available forces. By late spring, the Russians had adopted the kind of deep, prepared defenses that have been very difficult for attackers to break through for more than the last century of combat experience. Breakthrough has been—and still is—possible in land warfare.
But this has long required permissive conditions that are now absent in Ukraine: a defender, in this case Russia, whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are unmotivated and unwilling to defend their positions. That was true of Russian forces in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson in 2022. It is no longer the case.
If quality can ensure quick, decisive victories, the traditional U.S. approach is sound. But if the lesson of Ukraine’s 2023 offensive, in light of past experience, is that deep and well-prepared defenses remain robust, as they have been for the last century, then quality alone may not be enough to ensure the kind of short wars of quick decisive breakthroughs that U.S. defense planning has long tended to presuppose.
Quality is necessary for opportunity but may be insufficient in itself for success. And if so, the United States may need to rethink its balance of quality and quantity in a world where permissive conditions happen sometimes but cannot be guaranteed."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-russia-stopped-ukraines-momentum
8. "Therefore we’ll outline the ideal use case:
Caffeine is ideal for pushing through. If you have an exam, a deadline or something you need an extra hour or two of focused work? Take the drink. Do not use it daily
Caffeine on the physical side is likely maxed at a 20 minute interval or so, maybe 30 minutes max. If you are a competitive athlete you wouldn’t use it for a 90 minute soccer game. You might use it if you have 15 minutes left in a major game, or you are a role player who plays 15-20 mins in basketball. Essentially line up the caffeine with 20-30 mins of max output. Do not use this to try and win the Tour de France as you’ll burn out
Absurd consumption. When you’re in full workaholic mode you might be forced to drink a full gram per day of caffeine. This is absurd to many but if you’ve lived the “gauntlet” you know why it happens. If you do this, you better have a detox plan lined up right after
Consistency kills the positive of caffeine. It is meant to be cycled.
As you can see, no where in here is *daily* consumption. Daily consumption is probably the worst of all worlds. You get a slight boost that declines in effectiveness every week. You’re building tolerance. If you were to take it once or twice a week, at 200mg or so, you are unlikely building tolerance and could zero it out with a couple weeks off."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/caffeine-as-a-drugperformance-enhancer
9. "Anything that offers substantial rewards comes with risk, a high likelihood of failure. Which means you’ll need to make several appearances at the plate before you connect with the ball. The top scorers in the Premier League miss half their shots.
Great players, like great entrepreneurs and leaders, see the ball go wide, shake their head, and move on. If you want to be successful, you will likely need to quit the majority of your jobs, homes, friends, and investments. Your jobs, locale, investments, and relationships are commitments, not suicide pacts.
What get labeled ”overnight successes” rarely are, and the best way to become an overnight success is to work your ass off for 30 years. Most hugely successful entrepreneurs don’t hit it on their first venture.
Nobody is paying as much attention to your failures as you are, so fear them but don’t let them paralyze you. When you do fail, don’t feel you need to excuse them or blame others. Being gracious in victory is admirable. What’s harder, but can pay greater dividends, is being gracious in failure. Express gratitude to everyone who believed in you, and demonstrate grace to those who didn’t.
Shame and fear of embarrassment often hold people back from leaving … and leading a better life."
https://www.profgalloway.com/quitting-time/
10. "Which is why, even if an invasion is unlikely, or even decades away, the question — What might Japan do if China invades Taiwan, unprovoked? — has become more urgent. Japan’s answer could shape how the US prepares for any armed confrontation over Taiwan, its outcome, and whatever world emerges after.
Whether it wanted to or not, Japan itself cannot intervene to defend Taiwan. Japan’s post-World War II constitution renounces war, and so its Self-Defense Forces (SDF) are just that, a military that exists to defend its territory. (Japan has, especially in recent years, pushed against those constitutional parameters.)
What Japan does have is a security alliance with the United States. This treaty commits the US to defend Japan in the event of an attack on its soil, in exchange for America’s use of Japanese territory for “the purpose of contributing to the security of Japan and the maintenance of international peace and security in the Far East.” That is, military bases. About 55,000 US forces are based in Japan, and US military facilities span 77,000 acres, the majority in Okinawa prefecture. In any war with Taiwan, the US would need to deploy naval vessels and fighter jets from these locations.
But the use of these military bases requires prior consultation: Japan must grant the US permission to use these facilities in combat beyond the defense of Japan. If Taiwan invades, and the US wants to intervene, Japan has its own dilemma: to say yes potentially signs Japan up for war, leaving itself vulnerable to attack from China. To say no could unravel the US-Japan alliance, leaving itself vulnerable by cutting off its only security guarantor.
If Japan does say no, seeing the risks to itself and its population as too great, in any fight with China, the US is probably toast. The American military would likely be crushed if it intervened without being able to deploy its assets from Japan, but potentially strategically defeated if it did not intervene at all."
https://www.vox.com/world-politics/24047940/china-us-war-taiwan-japan-key-role-explained
11. "I asked Hastings if the tumult preceding his departure had left him shaken, a question he shrugged off: “We’ve been through a lot of ups and downs. When I screwed things up with Qwikster in 2011, well, that was a scary moment,” he said.
Hastings remains Netflix’s executive chair, a vague title that has meant a hands-on role for other people in his position, inviting meddling. But Sarandos, who’s stayed on as co-CEO along with former Chief Operating Officer Greg Peters, said Hastings was so intentional in building the company’s cultural foundations that his influence will endure without any need for micromanagement. “Reed had been working on succession, I think, from day one,” Sarandos told me. “He always said, ‘I’m building this company to be around centuries after me.’”
“I’m not in the office a lot, trying to hold on to my powers,” Hastings admitted during our conversation in Utah, as the snow outside glinted under bright sunshine. “They are in charge, and it’s theirs, hopefully, to run for 20 years and make it even more successful.
Then he made an admission: After leaving Netflix, he assumed he would dedicate himself full time to philanthropy. When he found himself spending so many hours on the Powder Mountain project, “I felt guilty. It was an indulgence,” he said. “And then it became ‘I should do both.’ I’ll do more and better philanthropy thanks to the nourishing part,” as only life at this altitude can deliver.”
12. This is a great discussion and school on how venture capital works and the different strategies that firms pursue. So very good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4RfDtAAcgY
13. This looks so very awesome. "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhnFo21ZlYc
14. The wisest man on the internet these days. Luke Belmar. Entrepreneurship is about freedom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHJeylXFsw8
15. "SaaS 1.0 represented the initial leap from physical software installations to cloud-based solutions, changing the way businesses accessed and scaled technology (think Salesforce). SaaS 2.0 built on the concept, embracing mobile integration, enhanced user interfaces, and collaboration tools to meet the evolving demands of enterprises (think Slack).
For decades, machine learning and iterations of AI have been embedded into these B2B applications. Everything from semantic search, automated content generation, recommendation engines, and big data have found their way into product suites. This made managing backend operations much easier for enterprises.
Now, with the emergence of large language models (LLMs), AI isn’t just an add-on but at the core of the application.
Enter SaaS 3.0: In this new phase, AI and machine learning are enhancing B2B applications to more effectively handle business-critical tasks. Through LLMs and deep learning, B2B vendors can automate entire processes, including payments, HR, CRM, content creation, and so much more.
To be fair, OpenAI’s API and enterprise-grade chatbot, along with other LLM vendors, have enabled some tech-savvy startups and hyperscalers to build their own tools to automate tasks.
But the reality is that most companies suddenly aren’t engineering powerhouses, capable of pumping out their own vertical software just by downloading an API. Engineers lack the time and expertise to build proprietary tech. And executives don’t want to invest in developing tools that already exist — ones that benefit from the experiences of thousands of customers and come with the assurance of being third-party provided.
The SaaS business model is alive and well."
16. Two nerds geeking out. Transhumanist and technology thinking. I'm open minded and it was actually interesting.
But I also see why traditional thinkers would hate this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvSX0rLyERs&t=1s
17. Everyone and anyone who is interested in getting into the Silicon Valley networks needs to read this.
"But how can you make it easy for someone to say yes to spending time with you, when they don’t have any to offer?
The solution involves 3 simple steps:
-Grab their attention quickly
-Signal that you understand how limited their time is
-Earn the rest"
https://chrisneumann.com/archives/the-paradox-of-time-silicon-valleys-ultimate-riddle
18. Good tear down on how government can be improved on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD73X_bO8Ss
19. Loved this episode, always thought provoking. NIA is my weekly bite of biz cultural insights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wLFVoxIeqGU
20. There is a great reckoning coming to Europe if their people & politicians do not wake up to the armed threats against them. That and their lack of preparation on the military front and resource front, as well as their over reliance on the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZvGwzo3GQ
21. This is going to be bad. Global maritime shipping is in trouble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtrFTV3ZKDw
22. "Even harder is the work required in Ukraine. Once an engine of the Soviet war machine, Ukraine’s military industry has hundreds of factories and tens of thousands of workers at the ready. But they have been pummeled by Russian missile strikes and have atrophied through decades of mismanagement. According to industry insiders, their output during the first year of the invasion was paltry. Among Zelensky’s advisers, some now see the industry as Ukraine’s best hope for defeating the Russians in what has become a war of attrition.
The task in front of Kamyshin is huge. Not only will he need to breathe life into Ukraine’s moribund factories—in some cases, he will also need to reconfigure them for entirely new purposes. “No matter how much we produce in conventional weapons, we can’t catch up with Russia,” says Kamyshin. “We need to use advanced technology to find a new approach.” He compared the challenge to the story of David and Goliath playing on repeat, with each new phase of the war obliging Ukraine to find a new slingshot."
https://time.com/6588222/zelensky-kamyshin-inside-ukraines-plan-to-arm-itself/
23. Some industry giants talking about what's happening in the tech industry and the global macro situation for public and private cos. It's a timely convo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWE5LsO62wA
24. Another wake up call for the West, will we hear it & take action?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H57_Rev14cE
25. Bull case for technology over the next 20 years. It's an amazing time to be alive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Lnbfw9QdAE
26. This is solid advice. Don't self isolate. Especially when you are feeling down. And especially if you are introverted. Go talk to people if things are bad.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IzZkPx9uYmo
27. "What Makes a Business a "Banana Stand:"
I've identified four key traits.
1. Customers love the product
2. The company is growing quickly (often in hypergrowth)
3. It is losing money (which, nowadays, is virtually all startups)
4. Critically, #1 and #2 are truly primarily because #3 is true.
I call these businesses banana stands because they are functionally equivalent to a banana stand that sells bananas at a discount- or sells banana smoothies for the same price as the underlying bananas. Customers will love it, it will grow, it will burn money- and as soon as it tries to make money, it will find that the reasons for its adoration and growth no longer apply.
This phenomenon is hardly limited to beach-side businesses- or even to consumer product companies, for that matter- there are practically infinite ways to be a banana stand."
28. Another great episode of More or Less to know what’s happening in tech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dyEEbQqOAE&t=2700s
29. "The stasis comes at a massive cost. College is more expensive than ever and, relative to the number of qualified students, less accessible. The tsunami of capital generated by increasing tuition has not gone toward the mission. Instead, it’s funded an army of high-paid administrators, and academic programs and centers with no measurable outcomes.
These arrogant attempts at social engineering are immune from scrutiny — you are clearly a racist or don’t “get it” if you question the return on DEI, ethics, leadership, ESG, or campus Rolexification (such as lazy rivers and climbing walls). The top tier of higher education is steadily regressing (again) to become the domain of the ultra-wealthy, salted with some freakishly remarkable kids to wallpaper over its transition from a lubricant to a coronation.
A reckoning is inevitable. Demographics are destiny. And destiny is coming for higher ed. The declining birth rates in the aughts mean there will be fewer undergrads starting in 2025. And the appeal of college to this dwindling cohort is fading. The most bloated industry in America is about to face a perfect storm: There are fewer customers, and the ones remaining are losing interest in the product."
https://www.profgalloway.com/rot/
30. This is highly disturbing but also rings true. So much bloat in US defense and ineffective military aided and abetted by horrific bureaucracy in the USA.
Also explains why we lost in Afghanistan. Infuriating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_bgyUdQAXY
31. "It feels great to win. But that’s not what this story is about.
It doesn’t matter the size of the pond or how large you are in it. It only matters who else is in there swimming with you."
https://www.sanjaysays.co/p/what-tom-brady-and-my-son-can-teach-you-about-success
32. "This sentiment was echoed last week when I met a gentleman and inquired why he chose to live in a warmer climate. He replied, “All the problems are the same. It’s just a little easier living down here.” This reinforces the notion that challenges are frequent, and there will always be aspects of life that are less than ideal.
However, one of the significant advantages of entrepreneurial success is the ability to be more intentional with our choices and, ultimately, to have the problems we prefer to deal with."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/02/03/i-have-all-the-problems-i-want-to-
33. "It’s almost as if some Americans are dealing with the psychic impact of our country’s institutional dysfunction, and our decline relative to China, by punching down on whoever is available to be punched down on — namely, our allies who are struggling even more than we are.
China’s manufacturing prowess is so vast that only by combining their industrial might can the developed democracies hope to match it. This will not happen if we continue to view allies’ companies and allies’ exports with suspicion and antagonism. We need to stop thinking of Germany, the UK, Japan, etc. as our old rivals, and start thinking of them as our indispensable partners. Their strength is our strength, and their weakness is our weakness.
This is something we realized in the aftermath of World War 2 and the early days of the first Cold War, when we did the Marshall Plan and opened our markets to European and Japanese goods. We need to remember that spirit right now."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/economic-losses-for-our-allies-are
34. "Now is a good time to remember what René Girard said about war. It’s mimetic. We humans do whatever the other side does. It’s like a game of copycat, except it’s not a game. Bernard Perret, an expert on Girard, says, “Violence is the most mimetic of passions, and the attraction that it has always exerted is further amplified today by social media." "Violence puts everyone in moral jeopardy, even those who are initially mere spectators." None of us are “mere spectators”.
Every choice to ignore this, or to comment on this on social media, or vote or not vote as a result of all this is an action that will determine the outcome. In the end, nobody wants war. Peter Drucker faced the same problem I see now. War is already underway, just as in the late 1930s when nobody could see it coming. He warned of the imminent risk of war in his first book, The End of Economic Man, in 1939. It was not “politically correct,” but it was correct.
Today’s drivers, forces, and stories are not exactly the same, but history “often rhymes.” Lest we forget, in 2014 President Putin said, “I would like to make it clear to all: This country will continue to actively defend the rights of Russians, our compatriots abroad, using the entire range of available means — from political and economic to operations under international humanitarian law and the right of self-defense.”
I wonder how long it will take for the public to wake up to today’s events and take the risk of conflict seriously enough to try and stop it. NATO Military commanders seem to think a wake-up call is needed."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/wwiii-an-update-for-taylor-swifties
35. "The Super Bowl’s primary purpose may be to crown the top team in professional football (and prop up the American chicken wing industry). But artists who perform at halftime are the biggest winners. In a fragmented cultural landscape, they’re granted the single-largest advertising stage in the world — for free."
https://thehustle.co/why-the-super-bowl-halftime-show-is-the-most-important-commercial-on-tv/
Maniac on a Mission: the David Senra Story
I met David once very quickly at the awesome Capital Camp conference and thoroughly enjoyed his talk on stage. And admittedly he is not everyone’s cup of tea. People find him too intense, obsessive and dark. But I love him and his message.
For those who do not know David Senra, if you are in the business world you will eventually. He runs the “Founders” podcast where he reads some of the best business biographies both popular and obscure and dissects and pulls out the lessons for us to learn. That’s all he does, reads and puts together and releases his podcast show every week. And he has been doing it for years, having read hundreds of books. I’m embarrassed I did not find his work earlier.
He has some of the best observations that will serve as great advice and guidance for business people.
Focus and obsession is everything.
That capitalism is the ultimate tool and game for the type-A individual. Remember that before capitalism, the ambitious, driven male would have been riding around on horseback fighting & chopping off heads while conquering land. Capitalism is the best alternative tool to channel this drive.
Podcasting is one of the best businesses to build. It can be platform for building relationships and new business opportunities
This is the best time to be alive as there are infinite opportunities for the ambitious, smart and hard working
I think the reason many people find him off putting is his intensity, his crazy work ethic and determination to be the best business podcast on the planet. This goes against all the garbage being taught and told to young people these days: that you can be great or do great things without hard work and sacrifice.
Of course, this is untrue and something anyone who has done anything outstanding knows is patently wrong.
Your hard work and learning accrues over time. Do the boring but important things and improve your craft every single day and time. When you direct this over a long period of time toward your mission, you cannot help but succeed. Be more like David Senra, be a maniac on a mission. I know I am.