Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Nov 7th, 2021
“The best way out is always through.”--Robert Frost
1. This is a very good thread detailing the energy crisis in China.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SahilBloom/status/1444702393892024321
2. "At the core, the tenets of successful open source practices hold true for any strategy you undertake: solving a hard problem that people are aware of; providing a solution that people agree is helpful; establishing your company as the problem-solver; making usage and adoption of your product easy; and, of course, crafting a successful go-to-market strategy that is scalable.
However, bear in mind that while open source is a popular, logical, and often successful strategy for many reasons, adapting it to the cloud-only era comes with an extra set of challenges.
Startups using open source strategies during the cloud transition era provided critical products and services (which allowed them to compete with the Big 3), but the same tactics may not necessarily have the same impact on in the cloud-only era."
https://greylock.com/greymatter/open-source-vs-cloud-castles/
3. The Americans (Big VC funds that is) are coming! (to Europe). Well, they actually have been for the last 5 years but more so now. This is great for the tech scene there.
4. I like this manifesto. Fight the FOMO and play your own game (whether you are founder or VC). We need more of this in VC.
https://medium.com/angularventures/back-to-basics-a-venture-manifesto-258f2562cf57
5. Sounds about right.
"There’s a common misconception among creators and creator platforms that getting a fan to pay for content is basically just a stronger version of hitting the “follow” button. But following a person on Twitter or YouTube and paying for the privilege are two very different things that require very different marketing and acquisition mechanisms. More attention must be paid to the sales funnel — and platforms need to build out the features for creators to effectively make the sell."
https://future.a16z.com/creator-platforms-neglect-the-sell/
6. More on the Multiverse.
https://mobile.twitter.com/agarwal__gaurav/status/1444275198832775180
7. The man knows the SaaS space so pay attention.
"I’m not opposed to Playing at the Bottom of the Market. Just two learnings from my experience. First, don’t confuse initial traction at the bottom with disruption. Know what you are, at least at a given point in time. And if you’re Playing at the Bottom — be scrappy. Don’t overfund yourself. Because there’s gold there too, just most likely rather less of it."
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dont-confuse-room-bottom-disruption-jason-m-lemkin/
8. "For more than twenty years, Brown, a Ph.D. in social work, has combined her research results—about shame, vulnerability, and other pillars of emotional life—with stories that illustrate them, delivered with a potent blend of empathy and Texan bravado (“Curiosity is a shit-starter”). Her work comes in many forms: five Times No. 1 best-selling books, two Spotify podcasts, a Netflix special. At the University of Houston, she’s a research professor of social work; at McCombs, a visiting professor of management.
She’s also a business in her own right, with programs that train people and organizations to contend with vulnerability and courage. In all realms, her conclusions tend to surprise, then resonate, like a Zen koan: “When perfectionism is driving us, shame is always riding shotgun.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/11/01/brene-browns-empire-of-emotion
9. So fascinating. The Pumpkin business.
"Americans are expected to spend a record $10B+ on Halloween items in 2021, up from $8B last year — and pumpkins are a big player: Among the 65% of Americans celebrating Halloween this year, 44% (~94m people) plan to carve one.
While pumpkins can readily be found at most grocery stores, many folks turn to a patch to procure their autumnal canvas.
What are the economics of these orange orbs? And how do pumpkin patches — a largely seasonal enterprise — make money year-round?
To find out, we talked to pumpkin farmers, experts, and patch owners around the country."
https://thehustle.co/the-economics-of-pumpkin-patches/
10. "Our shitposting Gods of Silicon Valley have only recently begun to sense they can tell their own stories, and it doesn’t really matter what a professionally-mad Brooklyn-based vegan thinks about rockets or bitcoin or virtual reality. That’s amazing — really, I love this evolution for us.
But on the other side of the incredible, growing influence of sovereign influencers is duty. A concentration of influence and resources is likewise a concentration of power. Ryan Petersen tapped into this power when he addressed the port crisis. Someone with the influence of Elon Musk is likely capable of much more."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/the-shitposting-gods-of-silicon-valley
11. Many people are going to learn this at great cost to themselves.
"If you don’t take control of your destiny, other people will do it for you, and they won’t have your best interests at heart. That’s not a risk I’m willing to take."
https://nomadcapitalist.com/finance/offshore/how-to-avoid-risk/
12. "What I mean is that most successful creators live off many small income streams that they bootstrap together. By creating many small wins, they form a robust lifestyle business. It’s usually not one major project that sustains them, but many small individual income streams that add up to a stable income. Each creator that builds a business this way is in a sense like the tree I came across this morning.
Perhaps I saw this metaphor because it’s something I’ve been thinking a lot about lately. Ie; that the majority of creators would be better off focusing on putting together multiple small wins rather than chasing one big win. Because there is often more resilience to a multi-income business model."
https://dougantin.com/sustainable-creator-business-models/
13. "The World is Rapidly Changing: We’re not here to tell you that you can’t catch up. In fact we think you’re still quite early if you’re smart enough to “skate to where the puck is going to be” (Wayne Gretzky - NHL player quote). In general, if you can figure out where the mega trends are and where the big picture is heading you’re going to be fine in life.
What is Changing? Well last year the fiat system decided to print Trillions of US Tokens. Trillions. This means that prices of all assets/goods are going up in price. While most said it was “not going to happen” this was delayed because the economy was shut all of 2020. In 2021? You’re simply lying to yourself if you don’t see it in food/gas/rent costs."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/some-general-cartoon-life-advice
14. Interesting.
"For the avoidance of doubt, Argentina remains a country with above-average risk. Politics, macro-economics and the state of the construction industry are all exposed to the particular kind of chaos that the country has become infamous for.
That said, housing and infrastructure remain among any country's basic needs, and Loma Negra is the dominant provider of the key material needed for any construction."
15. Always a good show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIK319OVAyM
16. This is illuminating.
"This story does have a moral, and it's that politics and war touch everyone, even the extremely wealthy and powerful. Never assume that you can be personally insulated from these forces."
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ardescamus/status/1456338890252562443
17. "His 2010 book, “The Vertical Farm,” has also proven a foundational text for many. Last year, he marked the book’s 10th anniversary with a new edition that offers an afterword reflecting on much of what has transpired in the intervening decade. “In 2010, when this book was first published, there were no vertical farms,” Despommier writes in a new chapter. “As of this writing, there are so many vertical farms, I don’t know exactly how many exist.”
https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/04/a-chat-with-the-author-of-the-vertical-farm/
18. This is incredibly innovative and the future of VC.
"I want to share two different examples of how we at Slow Ventures have answered this question, which I think can help serve as a template for the future—one investment in a family of entrepreneurs, and another in an individual creator. We’re aiming to do a lot more deals along the lines of these two models because we truly believe that in the long term, allowing people to do equity-based financing is critical to the future health of our society.
Why? Because young people have all the equity value in the form of their future sweat and ingenuity, but without the ability to unlock it, we’re stuck in a world where old people rule the roost. When individuals can only access debt, old people with large balance sheets control everything. But when we can all properly leverage our personal equity, the balance of power shifts back toward young and productive people who have decades of potential ahead of them.
Or put another way: Allowing individuals to leverage their personal equity early in their careers is key to getting us out from under the thumb of the baby boomers."
19. Idris Elba, one of coolest dudes around.
"It is hard to resist the notion that Elba’s recent brush with mortality might inspire a reframing of his life principles. He’s not so sure. “I’ve lived a proper full life,” he says. “That’s always been my mantra: ‘If I was to go tomorrow, at least I had a full life.’ And if I had succumbed to Covid, I could go with hand on heart saying, ‘Look, I had a good innings.’ But I don’t have the time to mess around. My ambition is bigger than my head, but I still think I’ve got stuff to offer the world. A contribution,” he mumbles, almost to himself as much as to me. “Still got a contribution.”
https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/movies/a37873959/idris-elba-interview-2021/
20. "The simple, empirical truth is this: Dwayne Johnson is the most successful movie star in the world, and has been for some time. For each of the last five years, he was, according to Forbes’s annual list, either the highest or second-highest paid actor. (In that period, he is estimated to have earned a total of $430.4 million.)
“It sits me down,” says Johnson, mulling this circumstance. “It sits me down. That was never the goal. The goal was just: I didn’t want to be broke. And I didn’t want my family to be broke anymore.” In person—for our first meeting we’re sitting in a Los Angeles hotel room, and he’s idly nursing a different glass of tequila—his affect is far more reflective and soft-spoken than it usually is in the movies that have made him all this money. “And it’s a blessing, man. Are you kidding me? It’s a blessing. It’s a blessing. It’s a blessing.
Johnson’s movie career has been only one aspect of what he does. Aside from various TV projects, his many other pursuits include his Project Rock Collection sportswear brand with Under Armour; his own sports drink, Zoa; co-owning the XFL football league; as well as the aforementioned tequila, Teremana. Johnson summarizes it like this: “I consider myself an industrialist and an entrepreneur and a businessman as well. And I’m in the relationship business. I’m in the customer service business. I’m in the consumer product business. And I’m certainly in the movie business.”
Johnson’s excitement when he talks about these other parts of his life seems entirely unforced. “I love building,” he says. “And I love creating products and brands that have a certain quality to them to deliver to people. But I think the stripped-away answer here is: I love it. I love what I do. Honestly, I love building from scratch with these two old dinosaur hands.”
https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2021/10/dwayne-johnson-speaks-his-truth
21. "What does this have to do with the scale of an entrepreneur’s success? Markets. Markets drive everything. No matter how talented the entrepreneur and team, without a great market, the level of success will be stunted. There’s an old saying in the startup world from Andy Rachleff, founder of Benchmark Capital, “When a great team meets a lousy market, markets win.” Ideally, an entrepreneur will pick a great market initially, or pivot into a great one fairly quickly, but without that, the chance of major success drops dramatically."
https://davidcummings.org/2021/11/06/scale-of-success-markets-markets-markets/
22. "In fact, I think there are multiple signs that Xi has actually weakened the capabilities of the Chinese juggernaut. So far, China’s power and general effectiveness are so great that these signs seem to have gone largely unnoticed, but I think they’re there. The three big ones are: Slowing growth, an international backlash against China, and missteps related to the Covid pandemic.
It’s time to consider the possibility that for all his self-aggrandizement, Xi Jinping is just not that competent of a leader."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/what-if-xi-jinping-just-isnt-that
23. Lessons from Sequoia Capital.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sajithpai/status/1456968651651764231
24. One of my favorite cities in the world: Tokyo. Good article on what makes the place so special as a metropolis.
Local Maximum Versus Global Maximum: Lessons for non-US Startups
No question on whether I am a fan of international founders, international markets and international startups. Some of my best investments are with foreign founders. My entire career has been spent globally and I continue to travel all around the world trying to help and find international startups.
Yet there are some major challenges that these local startups face. These are some general observations:
They are too focused on local maximum and think that starting in the local market is the right bridge to get to a bigger market. Usually this is not the case. The lessons they learn are not just not applicable elsewhere. And if the market is small (ie. sub 10M people, you are capped out and can’t get critical mass).
They don’t do their homework to learn about equivalent business models in other markets. This is important to learn lessons from other companies, whether successful or not. There is no excuse for this as there is a wonderful tool called Google.
Because of this, many founders face the “Hometown hero” or “High School Hero” syndrome. They are legitimately one of the top founders in their market. But they have no idea what the global standard and level is. Thus like the High school hero, they end up missing the mark of what is required at the top competitive level. It’s like the local high school basketball team competing against an NBA league team.
As a VC investor, we want to invest in a business and founder that can compete globally. And in a big competitive market like the United States. The best founders regardless of the country they are from, understand the risks and are willing to do the hard work. But it’s challenging to do this when you have no idea what the actual competitive level is.
Out of my 400+ portfolio, a third of them are from outside of the USA. The reality is only a third of them from my sample set were able to really rise to truly compete. Most end up being demoralized by the competition, demoralized by how really hard it is and of how behind they are compared to the best of the best. Whatever my criticisms of Silicon Valley are, there are thousands of amazingly experienced and strong founders out to conquer (metaphorically speaking of course).
As Naval says, "If you want to be successful, surround yourself with people who are more successful than you are, but if you want to be happy, surround yourself with people who are less successful than you are."
The best founders find the competition invigorating and really step up. They do the hard work, they build a community and network of fellow awesome founders and this raises their game. And I can point to innumerable international examples from my portfolio like Shippo, RapidApi, ManyChat, Printify, Aircall, Bigfinite, Monkeylearn, Cube.js among others that have surpassed anyone’s expectations. So for all non-US Founders wanting to come and build a big global business from Silicon Valley or the other centers of tech in the United States. If you are willing to do the work, you absolutely, no question are capable of doing it! Just depends on how much you want it.
WAGMI & GMI over NGMI: Building the World You Want to Live In
You see these terms frequently on Twitter or various social media. NGMI=Not Gonna Make It. GMI=Gonna Make It. WAGMI=We’re All Gonna Make It. Stock and Crypto traders use these terms to refer to people who are doing good trades or get it (GMI) and those who will not (NGMI).
Technology shifts, Climate change, ongoing raging pandemic, money printing, Political instability & growing illiberalism everywhere. Just look at Australia of all places as a recent scary case. And what is happening everywhere: Growing gap between the wealthy and everyone else.
I am VERY optimistic for humanity in the long run. But boy is it gonna be ugly over the next 7-8 years. I know some people will say I’m an alarmist but my counter is “Civilization” is a precarious thing: we are always 9 meals away from riots in the street. The social contract is frayed around the world and the result is the growing rage in the populace. It’s going to be a while before a new social contract comes together.
Yet looking at the situation coldly, as per my favorite Game of Thrones quote: “Chaos is a ladder!” Opportunities to grow and thrive also come out from these times. Just look at the crazy huge fortunes that came out of the breakup of the Soviet Union. Although I should note that this came with extreme pain and suffering for most people. No one wants this but it’s the other side of the coin we need to get through.
So being pragmatic here. There are some things you need to do to prepare & thrive:
Take care of your mental and physical health. This is job one.
Learn how World works & where it’s going (read “The Sovereign Individual”, any book by Péter Zeihan, “The Creature of Jekyll Island”by Griffin, “The Ascent of Money” & “The Square and Tower” by Ferguson, “Collusion” by Prins, “The Psychology of Money” by Housel, “End of Jobs” by Pearson, “The Price of Tomorrow” by Booth, “The Fourth Economy” by Davison, “The Rise of America” by Katusa, “Debt” by Graeber, “Emergency” by Strauss. Also lots of people to follow on Twitter & newsletters like Bowtied Bull, Balaji Srinivasan, Radigan Carter)
Be a Prepper: Have a few months of food, water in storage. Prudent if you are in an earthquake zone like me. Also have weapons to protect yourself and your family. (Make sure you train and know how to use them as per point 7).
Look at alternative countries that are stable, well run and you will enjoy spending time in. For me it’s Taiwan, Portugal, Japan, Georgia, Ukraine, Mexico.
Be prepared to move
Have Resources ie. good finances, whether Crypto, cash, Gold and bullets.
Build a portfolio of useful skills: Biz Skills (copywriting, investing, writing) & Self Defense (boxing, Muay Thai, wrestling, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Krav Maga) + Learn how to shoot pistols and rifles ie. Tactical Shooting.
You need to GMI first. Ie. put your mask on yourself first.
As they say, charity starts at home. Make sure you can take care of yourself so you can take care of others. If you don’t fix yourself, it’s like building a skyscraper on a bad foundation. Or put another way, you can’t help a drowning person if you can’t swim yourself.
Once you GMI, your important next steps are:
—Building a community of like minded people. Create your scene of people whom you can count on and who can count on you
—Focus on bringing up as many people with you. This is why I try to do as much startup investing, mentoring, and public speaking at many conferences. Also a big reason why I do so much writing online (besides the therapeutic aspects of it).
As the African proverb goes, “He who travels fastest, travels alone. He who travels furthest, travels together.” WAGMI.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 31st, 2021
“Scars are not signs of weakness, they are signs of survival and endurance.”
― Rodney A. Winters
Happy Halloween Everyone! :)
"People who left their city apartments for houses in the suburbs aren’t just living in the suburbs, they’re working there now, too. In turn, the people and services these workers may have relied on in city centers are moving to the suburbs as well. All of this will affect which businesses thrive and what real estate develops in the suburbs. It could also change traffic patterns, exacerbate urban sprawl, and heighten inequality.
New suburban businesses and improved real estate trends could lead to revitalized communities, less travel, and better quality of living for some. But not everyone will benefit. Sprawl is bad for the environment and can make life worse for the poorest Americans."
https://www.vox.com/recode/22714777/remote-work-from-home-city-suburbs-housing-traffic
2. Riches in niches it seems.
"Rothfield isn’t a doctor, a c-suite exec, or a member of some prototypically busy professional class.
She’s one of a growing number of entrepreneurs offering marketing, brand strategy, and financial consulting services to OnlyFans models.
In the past 18 months, OnlyFans, the 5-year-old platform where (mostly) sex workers get paid for posting photos and videos, has grown to 150m+ registered users and 1.5m+ creators.
For these creators, OnlyFans has been a boon: The platform, which takes a 20% cut of the subscription payments workers receive, now collectively pays out ~$5B to models per year.
But competition is cutthroat — and sex workers are increasingly turning to marketers like Rothfield to stand out and grow their followings."
https://thehustle.co/the-burgeoning-business-of-onlyfans-consulting/
3. The future of war? Interesting short story straight out of Ready Player One.
https://terrorhousemag.com/generation-z-warfare/
4. 110% agree here. Future is international.
"I believe we are at the beginning of a significant reorganization in entrepreneurship and its backers. While the last decade has seen giants emerge from many less mature economies — think Kaspi in Kazakhstan, Nubank in Brazil, or GoTo in Indonesia — capital remains highly concentrated in North America.
Of last year’s $260 billion in venture capital allocated, more than 51% went to American and Canadian startups, according to data compiled by Statista. That was followed by 34% into Asian businesses, 13% into European companies, and 2% into a group classified as “Other.”
What is “other?”
“Other” is Africa, with its 1.2 billion people, 54 countries, and more than 200 languages.
“Other” is Latin America, a region that includes major economies like Mexico and Brazil.
“Other” is Oceania, home to one of the world’s most valuable private companies in Canva.
“Other” is the Middle East, which has produced unicorns like Careem and Souq.
“Other” is, at the very least, 2.2 billion people and, depending on how this data was parsed, perhaps many more.
What looks like a rounding error from an investment perspective now is the future."
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/frontier-giants
5. This makes sense to me. From seed to public and a forever fund.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sequoia/status/1452999422988718084
6. Worth a watch here. Love these guys: The Poor Man's All In Podcast"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y171x-WHOYk
7. This is why we should be bullish on tech!
https://twitter.com/zachcoelius/status/1452676891379265536
8. "Seed-stage funding to startups has exploded in the past decade and become an asset class of its own. If that wasn’t obvious already, consider that in just the past few months, three of Silicon Valley’s largest and best-known venture firms—Andreessen Horowitz, Greylockand Khosla Ventures—all announced large new dedicated seed funds."
https://news.crunchbase.com/news/seed-funding-startups-top-vc-firms-a16z-nea-khosla/
9. It’s a crazy time in VC land.
"Regardless of their level of optimism about the future of technology, most people I spoke with expressed concern for the amount of funding some startups have received. Because of the economics of the venture model, that funding can place intense pressure on them to grow beyond what might be reasonable. One former venture capitalist told me about a “pre-revenue startup” raising money at a $500 million valuation. “If they don't absolutely crush it over the next 12 months, the company's dead,” the venture capitalist added.
“There’s a massive, massive bubble,” said Lindzon. “We know that there's something bad that's gonna happen. But it's different than the last time, so we don't know when."
https://www.vice.com/en/article/jgmxeb/the-great-competition-to-give-away-money-venture-capital
10. "Once again, the covid-19 backdrop has made for a unique holiday season, make no mistake. One can no longer make the argument that eCommerce is not an essential service. The numbers being put up month after month, even in pullbacks as pockets around the world open and close again, are undeniable."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/e-comm-update-part-1-of-2-and-crypto
11. Many founders are going to learn this lesson the hard way when times get tough. (Times eventually do get tough in all startups lives despite what you read online).
"In an era of transactional investing, relationships are both scarce and proprietary. They are “different.” As an investor, relationships provide access to entrepreneurs who are looking for a combination of support, insight, brainstorming and assistance in building teams that have real chemistry. Those relationships are critical for pitching A+ executives to join these nascent startups as well.
Today, many entrepreneurs are taking easy capital without developing relationships, which I believe may come back to bite them when times get tough. They may have already felt it when they can’t find recruiting help or a fund to pitch in when the model is not exactly right. Relationships are also proprietary. If you invest time, energy, your network and wisdom with the right people, they will want to keep working with you even when a faster and better transaction comes along.
As we saw back in the early 2000s, founders should also beware who they get into business with because, at some point, markets turn. When that happens, you really want someone in your corner who treats the investment as a relationship, and not as a transaction."
https://medium.com/aleph-vc/invest-in-relationships-not-transactions-f4d6cf9f363b
12. Loved the anime, can't wait to see the live action version.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIfiju-4_V4
13. "When MasterClass launched, in 2015, it offered three courses: Dustin Hoffman on acting, James Patterson on writing, and Serena Williams on tennis. Today, there are a hundred and thirty, in categories from business to wellness. During the pandemic lockdown, demand was up as much as tenfold from the previous year; last fall, when the site had a back-to-school promotion, selling an annual subscription for a dollar instead of a hundred and eighty dollars, two hundred thousand college students signed up in a day.
MasterClass will double in size this year, to six hundred employees, as it launches in the U.K., France, Germany, and Spain. It’s a Silicon Valley investor’s dream, a rolling juggernaut of flywheels and network effects dedicated to helping you, as the instructor Garry Kasparov puts it, “upgrade your software.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/25/can-masterclass-teach-you-everything
14. "Betting On Yourself
At this point you should recognize that no one is going to save you. If we couldn’t figure out how to make a paper vaccine card fit in a standard wallet card slot, we’re unlikely going to solve rampant inflation, poor incentives and wealth inequality any time soon.
Instead, the highest ROI is going to be the same *bet on yourself*. Right now there are too many opportunities to count in tech from crypto to e-commerce to becoming an expert in a niche field.
Creating good habits now will create massive wealth over the next 10 years. Without betting on yourself you’ll create bad habits (chasing the next shiny object 100x hail mary vs. creating something sustainable that you can control)."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/unrealized-gain-taxes-inflation-and
15. This is cool. Good for globetrotters & world travelers.
https://mobile.twitter.com/sriramk/status/1453840080745865216
16. This is why Sequoia Capital is top dog for so long in Silicon Valley. Innovating on the VC model.
https://www.protocol.com/newsletters/pipeline/sequoia-evergreen
17. The best business show & discussion right now. Bar none.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctLbqX3R0kI
18. Lots of good thinking on the supply chain issues by Flexport CEO.
"The bottleneck right now is not the cranes: It’s yard space at the container terminals and it’s empty chassis to clear those containers out.
In operations when a bottleneck appears somewhere that you didn’t design for it to appear, you must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK!
We must OVERWHELM THE BOTTLENECK and get these ports working again. I can’t stress enough how bad it is for the world economy if the ports don’t work. Every company selling physical goods bought or sold internationally will fail."
https://bigthink.com/the-present/supply-chain-backlog-clogging-ports/
19. This is pretty awesome if you ask me.
"The 19-year-old has made a name for herself as founder and CEO of Special Name, a website designed to provide Chinese parents with culturally appropriate English names for their babies.
Jessup was inspired to start the business in 2015, when she was just 15. Six months later, she had made more than $60,000 naming 200,000 babies. Since then, she has named a total of 677,900 (and counting) and racked up estimated revenues of over $400,000."
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/21/beau-jessup-teen-pays-college-fees-by-naming-chinese-babies.html
20. "For decades, we’ve justified the development of fragile and fragmented global supply chains in the name of economic growth and financial efficiency. This may have provided short-term benefits, but it has created our current supply chain crisis."
21. Lots of people like Serbia. So do I. (I will note I am concerned with Russian FSB & Chinese CCP infiltration there but I really like Belgrade alot). I am planning on spending more time there in 2022.
"Taxes are low, personal safety is very high, life is cheap, it's fun, English is widely spoken, and the people are proud and outgoing. Also, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is booming.
I see Serbia as a great option for:
- People who want to live in Europe but don't want to deal with EU complexity with regards to immigration, but also want to live in a big city as opposed to living in tranquil Montenegro.
- Business people who are attracted by Serbia's booming Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) levels due to its unique position between East & West, and its ability to attract Russian, Chinese, Arab, and Western investment.
- Westerners escaping wokeness and who want to live in a more traditional environment.
- Young people who want to live in a very fun city - Belgrade."
https://mailchi.mp/1cfbbfca58c2/between-east-and-west-how-to-obtain-residency-in-serbia?e=123a1c25c4
22. VERY interesting observation of the crazy world we are in.
"So when you look at the dog coins, notably DOGE and SHIB, it sort of makes sense. They are driven as much by collective belief in a meme as the U.S. dollar is driven by collective belief in the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
Memes are great. They get people invested. They allow for a certain element of growth and inflow because they are:
-Funny
-Trade FOMO fundamentals
-Create investable narratives
-Are real, because memefication manifests an element of reality
So despite all the memecoin run ups, the stock market going absolutely bonkers, public accounting being a bit ~loose~, and the Metaverse likely being our future - we have to remember that even though a lot of it doesn’t *feel* real, it is.
SHIB is real. It’s a meme. The U.S. Dollar is real. It’s a meme of the collective belief in the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Accounting is a meme. It makes companies go up even when they shouldn’t.
Everything is a meme! (except the supply chain)"
https://kyla.substack.com/p/why-money-isnt-real
23. This is a very important report and discussion on the "Independent Creator" economy. So excited for this future although there is much work to do.
https://newcreatormanifesto.com
24. This is a good discussion on geopolitics and economics: how it intersects with the importance of water.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s-22o1-qz8
25. This is a good take on the FB pivot to Meta.
"While many people made fun of Zuckerberg, I saw some shrewd moves. Lots of people have mocked the metaverse, the universe of virtual worlds that are all interconnected. But I’ve been thinking about it ever since reading novels such as Snow Crash and Ready Player One. It has been decades in the making, and while it’s here in some small forms like Second Life and Grand Theft Auto Online, and Roblox, it isn’t really here yet. As futurist Matthew Ball said, the metaverse is something that you should feel you’re inside of.
And as Zuckerberg said, you should feel a sense of presence, or that feeling you have been transported somewhere else.
If I were to bring up my favorite adage again — follow the money — I would conclude that so much money is going into the metaverse that it is going to happen. You don’t orchestrate something so huge, something on the scale of the Manhattan Project, and then come out of it on the other side without an atomic bomb.
The metaverse will happen because capital is betting that it will happen, and I’ll grant that Zuckerberg has some wisdom in seeing this."
https://venturebeat.com/2021/10/29/the-deanbeat-facebooks-ambitions-to-be-the-metaverse/
26. I will admit it, I do love Mexico City.
https://enroute.aircanada.com/en/travel-inspiration/mexico-travel-guide/
27. Jim Roger's first book "Adventure Capitalist" inspired me for embarking on my globally focused business career. Such a fun interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwaVCZOU4EQ
28. I’ll be speaking about the “Path to Self Sovereignty” at the Freedom Business Summit next week (November 6-7th). Come check it out.
GLOBAL SUMMIT FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO TAKE THEIR FREEDOM BACK, MITIGATE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS, PROTECT THEIR WEALTH AND BUILD A LOCATION INDEPENDENT LIFESTYLE.
Freedom Business Summit - is not just a regular summit, it is a philosophy of location independent lifestyle that is organized in official partnership with e-Residency Estonia and citizenship agency Migronis. Our key partners are Insured Nomads and Binance.
Dates: 6-7 November 2021
Format: Worldwide | Online
2 Days
30+ Speakers
2000+ Participants
28+ Countries
This year we decided to bring together 2000+ the world’s best entrepreneurs to learn best strategies from experts about - self sovereignty, prepper mentality, jurisdictional arbitrage, bitcoin through macro lenses, e-residency.
https://freedomsummit.net/?utm_source=speaker&utm_medium=marvin_liao
Keep it Simple Stupid: Focussing on the Basics
I obviously speak to many startup founders on a regular basis. One of the most common occurrences is we talk about scaling their business. Nothing wrong with this but it is weird to discuss this when they don’t even know who their ideal customers are or even have a working product.
It reminds me of when I went to take shooting classes with ex-Special forces folks. I incorrectly expected to be doing the whiz bang John Wick style of shooting. What we ended up practicing was a lot of basic shooting drills. Single shot, Double taps, Box Drills: 2 Double taps & 2 head shots. Over and over and over again. Thousands of times, slowly. “Slow is Smooth, Smooth is fast.” It’s about doing these right and well, to be seared into muscle memory. This is the foundation for the more complicated and advanced things.
I argue for early stage startups, it’s about doing boring basics really well. It’s not about Hacks. But founders, like most smart people in the world, tend to put Cart Before Horse. Because the basics are not sexy. It’s also very easy to get Shiny Object Syndrome in the startup world, hearing about what some other in the present spotlight founder is talking about. Or worse, some Venture Capitalist’s random idea of the moment. Also a problem with very smart people, you want to make things complicated because that is what you think you are supposed to do. But the acme of business & communications is about simplifying.
I’ve said it before in a previous post, you earn the right to grow your startup (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/you-earn-the-right-to-grow-commitment).
This requires incredible focus and discipline. And I should add again, it’s a GRIND. It can get boring. Customer development to get to the critical Product-Market-Fit is hard. You literally have to do hundreds of customer interviews, you will spend hours going through quantitative data and user funnels. All this is the foundation for growing and getting to Product Market Fit.
Once you figure the basics like customer segmentation, the AARRR (Acquisition, Activation, Retention, Revenue & Referral) user funnel, Core atomic units of valuel & Unit Economics, A working product with good UX. Then you might be ready to grow.
As the excellent & underrated startup book title states: “Nail It, Then Scale It.”
To do this, it is better to focus on Input goals prior to PMF not Output Goals. Input goals are things like the number of sales calls, customer interviews or product pushes. An output goal is Revenue or user numbers (ie. 100,000 users or $20k MRR). In early stage startups, in most cases, you are better off with input goals. You then develop the Output goal over time with more data, feedback and information. You will get to a point where you will have both input and output goals. This is where you discover what the key drivers are of your business. So for example, you may discover that for every 100 sales calls you make, you close 1 customer. Most scale up or big companies use Output goals because in theory, the business model, sales process & product is fully baked and working already.
Of course, you should have a vision of where you are going and what you want to build. But BHAGs (Big Hairy Audacious Goals) don’t make sense as they are random and you literally do not know anything. You don’t know who your customers are or could be, you have no product. All you have is a process to get the data & information. So the input goals help you fall in love with the process which should get you closer to realizing your vision. The right goals and process are the fundamentals.
As Michael Jordan said “The minute you get away from fundamentals – whether its proper technique, work ethic or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game, your schoolwork, your job, whatever you’re doing.” This is also very relevant for startups.
The Biggest Little Farm: Lessons for Life from Nature
The documentary tracks the 8 year journey of the Chesters, a couple from the city who decide to create an ethical sustainable farm named Apricot Lane using only traditional methods. Multiple crops of fruits and vegetables, using the natural fertilizer of their free range animals (chickens, ducks, pigs, cows). Circular farming at its best. All this with the understanding that the process would lead to better tasting and healthier food and being more in sync with nature.
Contrast this to corporate factory farms that dominate farming these days: one crop monoculture driven by chemical fertilizer and drugs for the imprisoned animals. No wonder food in America requires preservatives and tastes so bad, also unhealthy to boot.
The added benefit of a natural grown farm was the diversity of plant life. One of the biggest issues with present day farms is that pestilences come in and ravage the crops. Being a single crop you could end up being wiped out. But for more multi crop farms like Apricot Lane which had several dozen this risk is lessened. Diversity really matters.
The additional benefit of diverse plant life showed up when the region was hit by rain storms. All the other farms had their rich growing topsoil swept away to the ocean, killing productivity of the farm. This was not an issue for Apricot Lane, whose various plant life was able to absorb the water, clean it and send it to the important aquifer under the land.
The Chester family face constant challenges of climate, weather, pests, wild predators and escalating costs. It seemed like it was always two steps forward, one step back. But they are relentless, tackling each and every challenge stoically.
Illustrates the challenging life of farming. Lots to learn from farmers like grit, patience, hard working and resilience. Following dreams is hard but you learn so much along the way.
As per quote from John Chester:
“Here's the thing: We live in a state of fear right now; there's so much to be afraid of. And the natural response in the midst of fear is to turn away. The thing I've found is that anything we're facing on the farm, the antidote to it is curiosity.”
Whenever some problem came up, they learned not to brute force it. Farmers learn very quickly not to force nature. There is no way to win. Instead they learned to step back.
John Chester, continues “Observation followed by Creativity is becoming our greatest ally.” He basically followed the highly effective military methodology of the OODA Loop. Observe, Orient, Decide and Act.
In our world today, we are in reaction mode all the time. Many of us have a bias to action in a fast changing world like ours. But in some situations, it’s better to stop first to better understand the situation. In many cases, you probably don’t need to do anything as the situation usually sorts itself out. In others, thoughtful action is important. Snap judgements and actions tend to make your problems worse. In most cases, it’s important that you take the time. We can all learn to be a bit more patient and sometimes let nature take its course. We should always trust in our ability to handle things in the rare situation that gets out of control.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 24th, 2021
“What cannot be altered must be borne, not blamed.”― Thomas Fuller
We forget how critical energy is to our society and our economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB1eGDpEeQY
2. This is #futureofwork. Worth a read for the future Solopreneur.
"The indie ecosystem makes people uncomfortable because of how different it is from what we have come to see as work - labor in exchange for a steady salary. Because income from doing this kind of work is often unpredictable and lumpy, attempts to think about it in the frame of traditional work are unhelpful. For example, I have been writing online for four or five years. I’ve made no more than $5,000 from writing. However, I realized a couple of years ago that since I like writing, if I could commit to it for several more years, I would likely discover huge potential from making money from my writing but likely in ways I couldn’t predict.
This is what makes thinking about investing in the broader ecosystem from a political, large business, or government standpoint impossible. They rely on stable systems that can be predictable and grow in a linear fashion. The investor world, especially the VC world, is likely best suited to think about this. However the downside there is that sometimes they forget to model the non-economic possibilities that people value in their lives."
https://boundless.substack.com/p/metcalfe-and-indie-possibilities
3. Great perspective here on the wacky VC market right now.
"Here’s the key insight I’ve come to: Later-stage venture capital which was previously all about fundamentals and deep analysis, has morphed into being largely about momentum (will the next round happen? Yes!), indexing (given that the next round always happens, let’s do everything!), and speed (since we’re going to do everything, what are we waiting for?).
This makes the risk to late-stage VC (or early-stage VCs that are indexing) much more systemic (beta!) and the risk to early-stage VC much more idiosyncratic (alpha!)."
https://medium.com/angularventures/alpha-beta-and-an-inverted-venture-risk-curve-fd0ed5a6a81a
4. Word to the wise. Must read.
"Perfect transition here, if Digital is the new way to get ahead it means that you will be left with a few avenues: 1) you are already rich and you are a capital allocator, 2) you become a top 1% creator - famous individual like Logan Paul or 3) you create a niche business online that allows you to outpace the growth of inflation - e-commerce. As you can imagine, since the number of options are thinning it means the pareto distribution will likely get worse before it gets better. The top 10% will eventually dwindle down to the top 5%."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/a-quick-look-into-more-deficits-and
5. "Most people would be wise to think about Paul Graham’s essay. To seek out communities in the physical world that are more frontier minded when pursuing personal sovereignty. Places removed from conventional society. From conventional thought and influences.
These frontier communities may not perfectly align with the concept of the Sovereign Individual. But frontier communities of oddballs and DIYers are ideal for building something new. Especially a new sense of self.
Whether it be a company or a lifestyle. A frontier in the physical world is a place where you can redefine yourself with less fear of external influences. Where you’ll be embraced for your oddball characteristics. And in this setting, you’ll feel empowered to perform the lifestyle design iterations you need to develop your personal sovereignty.
And so, if you want to reinvent yourself and pursue personal sovereignty in the digital age, get to the frontier. Wherever that may be for you."
https://dougantin.com/personal-sovereignty-is-built-on-the-frontier-of-society/
6. Wow this is very impressive for a new fund manager. Also clearly very differentiated.
"The second piece of the diagnosis is that the rules of the game are different for a small solo fund like Not Boring Capital. We are structurally set up to be able to invest in a lot of the most credible companies. We don’t lead deals. We don’t sit on boards. The newsletter generates strong dealflow. If we invest a little bit in companies that can break out, I can often pull the “Deep Dive” arrow out of the quiver to write bigger checks in later rounds. We can often get $250k allocation but rarely $1 million. Time isn’t a constraint, but allocation often is.
At the same time, the biggest funds are getting bigger, which has been well-covered. What’s less appreciated is that, counterintuitively, the bigger and better the big funds get, the better it is for small funds like Not Boring Capital."
https://www.notboring.co/p/playing-solo-games
7. This is absolutely invaluable for SaaS Investors and founders. Bookmark this.
https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-saas-metrics-that-matter
8. For anyone who wants to understand Crypto from a man who is both a historian and investor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saKDoudHgSQ
9. More about the Supply Chain shortages hitting the global economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pw51DqC-cQE
10. More continuing stupidity from the woke mob.
"The average tech employee isn’t really interested in roleplaying the 1960s between their morning gourmet coffee break and their afternoon massage. Most of them actually like their jobs, and want to do them. It’s also worth remembering that for every Netflix employee furious with the company’s decision to produce relevant content, there are hundreds — probably thousands — who want to work for Netflix.
The minority of cultural authoritarians working in tech don’t actually have much leverage, so why do we keep entertaining their authoritarian demands? The attempted takeover is opt-in. You can truly just opt-out. The Verge won’t like you. This will continue to not matter."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/lock-the-doors
11. "Until now, “no-code” and “enterprise grade” have been squarely at odds. In my previous experience running growth functions, I used a number of no-code page builders. They were great for tinkering, but typically shunned by engineering leaders as not production-grade. Yet it is the larger businesses who need this flexibility and performance most."
https://greylock.com/portfolio-news/headless-no-code-commerce/
12. Exciting news and congrats Ankur Nagpal. Like this thesis. Founders do want other founders investing in their company.
13. Good discussion on global supply chains, something we should all be paying attention to.
"The thing is, a supply chain is mostly an emergent entity rather than a designed one, and its most salient features often have very little to do with its nominal function of getting stuff from Point A to Point B. That’s just the supply chain’s job, not what it is. What it is is a homeostatic equilibrium created by billions of sourcing decisions made over time, by millions of individuals at businesses around the world making buying and selling decisions over time.
So just as it is a mistake to think of supply chains primarily in engineering terms, it is also a mistake to think of them primarily in social science terms.
Supply chains are a new class of engineered-emergent artifact, one that includes a few other globe-spanning things like the internet, the air travel system, and low earth orbit, that exist at a level of Gaian phenomenology, terraforming, and planet-scale husbandry. We only ever catch local glimpses of these things. The wholes are too big to fit in a single human mind, and the physical embodiments are too vast to capture even on a single map, let alone in a single photograph."
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/remystifying-supply-chains
14. I cannot wait to see this movie. I hope it does the amazing book justice. Reviews seem to say it does.
https://www.inverse.com/entertainment/dune-denis-villeneuve
15. This is worth watching for those interested in crypto and stuff on the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE4-XjeVTv0&t=2453s
16. This is a smart move and OnDeck will be the next YC (whatever that means). But this will be a hothouse of the next generation of rising talent.
"Back in the 90's and early 2000's, capital and credentials were bottlenecks to starting a technology company. Anyone can start up... so long as you can get an MBA and $10M from Sand Hill Road.
In the mid 2000s, that all changed. With the rise of AWS & open source software, the cost to spin up new software products plummeted. Now, anyone can start up... so long as you can code. Engineering skills became the new scarcity.
Today, it's never been easier to get started. Knowledge & content are ubiquitous. No-code tools and dev infrastructure are powerful. Sprawling social networks help you discover and serve niche audiences. Anyone can start a tech co, anywhere in the world.
But the scarcity has shifted, again.
Today, what’s hardest is cutting through the noise—to find the right co-founder, get your product in the hands of early users, hiring the right early team. The #1 enemy of any aspiring founder is obscurity. Community is the new scarcity.
The highest-leverage thing you can do as a founder is surround yourself with a community of people who will be early collaborators, possible customers, and care enough to give you raw, real feedback."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/announcing-odx
17. This is a really eye opening write up on why the stock market is operating as it is. Lots of implications for all stockholders.
"Passive flows are having an impact on how the market is structured, and shifting market dynamics to an element of *stonks always go up*. It’s important to understand the underlying mechanics, and how that ultimately impacts the entire functioning of the market.
It has increased access sure, but it also has changed the ecosystem of the market functionality."
https://kyla.substack.com/p/volmaggedon-and-the-rise-of-passive
18. Bullish on Mexico. Strong case here for it
https://mobile.twitter.com/Divine_Gains/status/1451636992404512772
Food Porn: What We Can Learn from Japan
Ramen Heads, Jiros Dreams of Sushi, Tampopo, Food Luck, Le Chocolat De H.
All amazing movies showcasing expert chefs celebrating their craft in making food whether it’s Ramen, sushi, chocolate or Yakiniku (Japanese bbq beef).
These can be seen as food porn. But what these movies also reflect is the perfectionism, the hard work and dedication that makes Japan at the best the traditional arts and crafts.
It shows how dedication and love makes the food so delicious. It also shows the obsession necessary to be the BEST at something. The ramen chef in Ramen Kings goes to visit other ramen shops on his day off, despite winning multiple awards & top rankings. Jiro has literally been making sushi for over 60 years and hates taking days off work. That is an obsession. Yet it works, it’s the most highly ranked sushi place in the world.
I’ve long been in love with Japan and Japanese culture. The incredible manners, service and complete immersion in pursuing perfection. I’ve seen janitors, subway conductors and bus drivers do their work with incredible passion and pride. Something that is clearly missing in almost everywhere else in the world.
There is this term I learned called Shokunin: a craftsman or artisan in pursuit of perfection. The official definition is “mastery of a profession”. Whatever it is that you do, go all out. Hold nothing back. And work at your craft with dedication, no matter how menial or useless others think it is. Actually who cares what other people think. Really. They don’t pay your bills and it’s YOUR Life. We need more Shokunin in the world.
Environmental Awareness, Breakpoints, Pride & Red Lines: Lessons for Life and Investing
I’ve long been an admirer of the military and more so the elite special forces. At Capital Camp I had a chance to take a short workshop with the awesome folks of Asymmetric Solutions on tactical awareness and shooting. All the instructors were ex-SOF (Special Operations Forces) like Navy SEALs & US Special Forces. A tough, impressive crew and it was pretty eye-opening. The biggest thing I learned was their amazing mindset and frameworks for life.
The Mission Matters: At the end of the day, whether in business or life, there has to be a driving force for whatever you do. For them, it’s about taking care of their team and their family and getting home safely.
Pride is Dangerous: This was stressed more than a few times. It’s always better to walk away from a fight, even if you know you can win. There is way too much risk in being hurt or being sued. And going back to the first point, if the mission is to get home to your family, who cares about pride. Easier said than done though for a macho guy.
Situational Awareness: How often do we walk around caught up in our own thoughts unaware of everything around us. I can’t tell you how many times I see people walking down the street with their face in a phone. It’s also why I don’t walk around with headphones blaring music.
This causes terrible situational awareness. You can’t see possible threats around you. This is a huge issue in San Francisco which is full of insane drugged-out crazies in the downtown area. Or an issue really in any major city you go to. It’s not just about crime, it’s also about avoiding possible traffic accidents.
Risk Management and Breakpoints: Basically before you go anywhere like a restaurant or movie. Play scenarios in your mind and understand what could possibly go wrong. Evaluate possible exit points and the safest and fastest way to get out with your family.
A Breakpoint is where you can’t see anyone and an area of possible danger. Make sure you know where these are. So for example, I never sit with my back to the door. Always with my back facing the wall. I think many of us naturally do this because you don’t want anyone walking or moving behind you. Basically, Have a plan anywhere and everywhere you go.
Have a Redline: Break distances from possible threats into different zones. Keep them as far away as possible, but as they get closer entering each zone, you can act or evaluate accordingly. Basically use the OODA loop. Orient, Observe, Decide and Act.
For many of us who have families, a Redline could be a high potential threat to our families.
If they cross the Redline, you have to act with incredible speed and violence. Hold nothing back. As they say, Shoot to kill.
So for those reading this, I know the question is how is this relevant to business, investing or life outside of self defense. Well there is a lot here.
For every business, every investment, you should always have a plan or thesis. You should always be aware of your environment (read trends around you) and play out possible scenarios in your head even when nothing is happening. Always have a plan. When bad things happen, at least you have some clear steps on what to do. This will help prevent you from being frozen in indecision and surprise. As I heard from the guys, in times of shock and tiredness, you regress to the level of your training. And most importantly, don’t let pride get in the way in admitting you screwed up. Own it, fix it and move on. Pride has REKT more than a few investors and businessmen.
Basically, as Marine General James Mattis once said: ‘Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet.’
This is a pretty good rule in life I think, especially in America these days and in the chaos around us during the pandemic age.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 17th, 2021
“Come what may, all bad fortune is to be conquered by endurance.”― Virgil
1. This is incredibly smart.
"Jon Oringer, the billionaire founder and former leader of ShutterstockInc., a global photography provider, is taking aim at a new gig.
Over the past year, he and a partner have invested in more than 100 high-tech startups, 10 of which Mr. Oringer himself co-founded. He prefers to bankroll executives who have started and run businesses that flopped.
“Trying again after failing shows perseverance,” the 47-year-old entrepreneur explains. “We look for people with that track record because it’s the same as my track record.”
2. There is much we can learn here. Being a Portfolio entrepreneur. The future of work. This is a worthwhile read.
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/stepping-off-a-rocketship-strapping
3. "Nearly a decade later, Veritas Capital’s assets have grown from $2 billion in 2012 to $36 billion today, and its funds have generated staggering net internal rates of return of 31%. The funds have lost money on only a single investment ($87 million on a solar panel company in New Mexico), and since Musallam took over, Veritas has distributed $12 billion to its investors. At 53, Musallam finds himself worth an estimated $4 billion, good enough for a debut appearance on this year’s Forbes 400.
Musallam produced this track record by focusing on technology companies that operate in sectors dominated by the United States’ federal government, particularly defense, health care and education. America’s $6.8 trillion worth of annual spending and sweeping regulatory power give it unparalleled sway in these markets. While many buyout firms try to avoid investing in areas affected by government interference, Musallam’s strategy hinges on understanding what the most influential player in the global economy will do next." https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2021/09/29/wall-streets-top-secret-billionaire-investor/
4. Business travelers subsidize 5-6 economy class travelers on flights.
https://thehustle.co/why-airlines-need-business-travel-to-return/
5. The World’s most important Semiconductor chip company: TSMC. A counterpoint to those who do not believe Taiwan is strategic to the USA.
"The $550 billion firm today controls more than half the global market for made-to-order chips and has an even tighter stranglehold on the most advanced processors, with more than 90% of market share by some estimates.
“TSMC is just absolutely critical,” says Peter Hanbury, a semiconductor specialist at the Bain & Co. consulting firm. “They basically control the most complicated part of the semiconductor ecosystem, and they’re a near monopoly at the bleeding edge.”
https://time.com/6102879/semiconductor-chip-shortage-tsmc/
6. #futureofwork
"Mr Bloom is part of a growing brigade of digital nomads in Europe, who work remotely while satisfying their wanderlust. This kind of itinerant lifestyle is as old as laptops and free internet. But covid-19 has given it a boost. A game of lockdown arbitrage began earlier this year as border controls eased and people fled congested cities like Berlin and London. Some headed for other cities, such as Lisbon and Madrid, which offered sunshine and looser lockdown rules. Others chose remote spots on the Mediterranean and in the Alps.
Now covid-19 restrictions are easing but the trend continues as many Europeans reject a traditional office routine after a year and a half of remote work. As Yoon-Joo Jee, an entrepreneur who has spent the pandemic between Seoul, Geneva and Lisbon, puts it: “there's an addiction in moving and exploring new places.”
https://archive.is/J75OP#selection-699.0-699.850
7. This is going to have major implications for the world wide supply chain.
"It’s the worst electricity crisis China has faced in a decade. The immediate cause is that China is still highly dependent on coal, which provides 70 percent of the country’s power generation. The electricity prices paid to generators are regulated by the central government, while coal prices are set on the market. When coal prices rise, unless regulators increase electricity prices, it doesn’t make economic sense for coal power plants to keep supplying electricity. Plants can then avoid generating at a loss by claiming they have a technical malfunction or by failing to purchase the coal they need to run, both of which happened in the run-up to the current crisis."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/07/china-energy-crisis-electricity-coal-pricing-renewables/
8. "There is an opportunity for early adopters to write the conventional wisdom of tomorrow. There is an opportunity for the people that identify trends to take action today. And there is an opportunity to reposition yourself from a dystopian mindset, designed by conventional wisdom of times gone by, to a hopeful and positive mindset empowered by conventional wisdom of tomorrow.
There is an opportunity to attack fatalistic mindsets and empower people to play the long game. To educate them on what they intuitively know. That we are living through the digital transformation. And that the digital age requires a new conventional wisdom.
Those that learn to adapt to this new age quickly and that decisively deploy their money towards it can break free of the established order
of the late industrial age."
https://dougantin.com/opportunities-form-as-we-circle-the-drain/
9. Lots of lessons from history here. Well worth a read.
"Politicians wanting to stay in office will always bow to public pressure at the ballot box to inflate the money supply and lower interest rates because that requires less pain than deflation which causes businesses to shutter and lays people off even if it does preserve people’s ability to save money and earn a high rate of return on savings.
There are no bad guys in this story, just everyone with their own problems doing what is best for themselves. I am trying to protect my family and capital, bankers are trying to not get fired, and politicians are trying to be reelected.
It is completely understandable when looking back at the decisions previous generations made."
People can evaluate for themselves if they want to have a portion of their net worth in an asset which is not dependent on politicians and bankers.
For me after studying history, whether inflationary or deflationary, bitcoin is a way to save value outside the system."
https://www.radigancarter.com/dispatches/world-war-i-to-bitcoin
10. 110% agree here. Hungary, Ukraine, Georgia and Serbia are tops on my list.
"We support the idea of finding a place where you can retire and “live like a king.” In today’s world of competition and opportunity, it only makes sense to go where you’re treated best.
Everything considered – real estate, second residency, currency, investments, lifestyle, all of it – Eastern Europe is the place to go for retirement."
https://nomadcapitalist.com/expat/early-retirement-best-places-to-retire/
11. "Inflation Only Benefits Asset Holders: As mentioned many many times here, the only people who like inflation are the ultra rich and the people who do not understand asset valuation. The only people with assets are the wealthy. Instead of addressing wealth disparity they will attempt to address “income disparity”. Which of course, doesn’t impact a CEO making $1/year in annual salary (heroic!).
Since inflation benefits asset holders, you can wager that mainstream outlets will begin to push this narrative. That inflation isn’t “a bad thing”. They will then move to various spins to help the masses agree with this statement. It will be difficult but it’s one of their only hopes in keeping everyone calm."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/inflation-jp-morganbofa-a-10000-investment
12. "The suburbs will not vanish as a result of America’s new need for density; they will simply change. But what will they change into? What will the new suburbs look like, and what will the lives of people in them be like? Obviously there will be a wide variety, but I think that current trends are starting to sketch us a rough outline of that future."
"The densification of the suburbs that I envision here will not solve all of the problems of American urbanism. There will still be some segregation by class and race. Good local train networks like those enjoyed in Europe and Asia will still be far too few, and cars too common. The suburbs will still be too distant to form a truly efficient urban network. America will not become the Netherlands, and it will not become Japan.
But things will be moderately better. Housing will be a bit more affordable, living near to a knowledge industry center will be a bit easier, cars will kill somewhat fewer people. More people will know their neighbors, and life in the American suburbs will be less socially isolating and stultifying."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/life-in-the-new-american-suburbs
13. I like Matt Damon.
"I ask Bono whether he’s saying that, in the nicest possible way, Damon is not that good at being a celebrity.
“Yeah, that might be the truth,” Bono replies, and contrasts a particular glazed look he has learned to recognize in the eyes of some politicians he meets with the affect of someone like Damon. “He’s not professional,” Bono suggests. “He’s way beyond that. He’s an amateur, in the way that he should always be, regarding celebrity. You know, quite good at it on the weekends, probably falls down in the week. But the respect for people and for human life, and the squandering of it, that’s absolutely core to who he is. And he’s just trying to be useful. Trying to be helpful.”
https://www.gq.com/story/matt-damon-october-cover-profile
14. I'm definitely a supporter. It’s early days but the promise is there.
"Although ketamine is legal if prescribed by a doctor, the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) lists psychedelics like psilocybin and MDMA in schedule 1 of the Controlled Substance Act, which says they have no medical value and a high potential for abuse. But there’s also growing evidence that psychedelics could lead to game-changing medications and, when combined with conventional therapy, may help people who aren’t seeing results through currently available treatments. Several US cities have already decriminalized psilocybin, the active ingredient in magic mushrooms, and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is overseeing clinical trials into using psychedelics to treat PTSD and depression.
This potentially revolutionary approach to mental health also represents a tremendous commercial opportunity for health care and pharmaceutical companies."
https://www.vox.com/recode/22716491/psychedelics-ketamine-mental-health-research-fda
15. This is worth watching. Don't agree with all the assessments but overall this is sobering & his points are well argued.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1IJ9kqBilE&t=1814s
16. This is immensely sad. I really dislike hedge funds. Well, Alden don't pretend they are saints like others.
"What threatens local newspapers now is not just digital disruption or abstract market forces. They’re being targeted by investors who have figured out how to get rich by strip-mining local-news outfits. The model is simple: Gut the staff, sell the real estate, jack up subscription prices, and wring as much cash as possible out of the enterprise until eventually enough readers cancel their subscriptions that the paper folds, or is reduced to a desiccated husk of its former self.
The men who devised this model are Randall Smith and Heath Freeman, the co-founders of Alden Global Capital. Since they bought their first newspapers a decade ago, no one has been more mercenary or less interested in pretending to care about their publications’ long-term health.
With aggressive cost-cutting, Alden can operate its newspapers at a profit for years while turning out a steadily worse product, indifferent to the subscribers it’s alienating."
17. This is awesome and long overdue. Standardized Legal templates for VC fund set up, an otherwise very painful and expensive process.
18. For those interested in Asian geopolitics, this is worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IO1ROPIjd8
19. This is quite illuminating....worth watching. Kind of explains everything going on in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8Ndnpfw69w&t=2s
20. "Despite being a latecomer to Hollywood, Bautista found success quickly, starting with his breakout role as Drax the Destroyer in Guardians of the Galaxy when he was in his mid-40s. Now he’s scored the role, as the villainous unit Glossu “Beast” Rabban in the elegant sci-fi epic Dune (out October 22), with the guy, director Denis Villeneuve, and he should play an even larger role in the film’s forecasted second installment. Dune is big—Dune is “Dave Bautista’s arm” big.
For Bautista, who tells me, “It wasn’t until my 40s when I really started to be okay with myself,” his progress from bouncer to wrestler to action star to serious fuckin’ actor is hugely validating. And for those of us who may sometimes feel underactualized and appalled by the rate at which we are careening toward senescence, Bautista’s self-reinvention in his 50s is thrilling."
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a37712403/dave-bautista-dune-movie-interview/
21. What a story. Intense too. The point. Learn how to fight and defend yourself.
"I saw in that moment, how everything was, and how everything would be. You’re on your own. There wasn’t anyone coming to save you, cops included. You had to watch what you’re doing at all times, and, when the time comes, you handle your business."
https://www.bobbydino.com/blog/riot
22. What could possibly go wrong here.....at the same time I kind of want one or two myself.
23. "Before web3, users and builders had to choose between the limited functionality of web1 or the corporate, centralized model of web2.
Web3 offers a new way that combines the best aspects of the previous eras. It’s very early in this movement and a great time to get involved."
https://future.a16z.com/why-web3-matters/
24. Geography really does matter. The Balkans as a case study (a region I love btw).
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/why-were-the-balkans-underdeveloped
25. Hard to argue with this. The extremely high level of dishonesty and fake it till you make it in tech these days. Not good.
"The more I think about all this wackiness and assholery across the economy, it becomes clearer that there have simply been no parents around. The institutions or financial constraints that are supposed to teach a well-formed, but still developing mind, the difference between right and wrong haven’t been around. The entire economy feels like it’s acting like a teenager. Every CEO tweet, every odd price action, Adam Aron not wearing pants, just all of it. The more I remember my own mindset during those awkward, formative years, the more everything starts to make sense."
Your Inside Game is More Important than the Outside Game
We’ve all seen these situations in real life, and in some cases, actually been in these situations. The Supremely fit Olympic Athlete who cracks under pressure in a competition. The ball player who trains madly for years but freezes in his/her first game. A student who flunks the final test they spent a semester or two preparing for.
What is the universal cause? They did not crack from the external competition & the audience and attention. They cracked from not being able to handle the pressure: basically they psyched themselves out.
What I learned in investing is that the mental game is the critical factor of success. Most of the time you know what you need to do but you don’t due to insecurity, fear or indecisiveness. I learned that psychology accounts for most of investors' mistakes. How many folks sold their stocks back in March 2020 due to fear? I did and boy did it cost me. Loss aversion cognitive bias at work, which ironically caused me even more losses in missing the incredible run up on stock prices.
The best investors are able to manage their psychology incredibly well on a consistent basis. Almost Stoically. To do that, first you must dig in deeply to understand yourself & what drives you . Sometimes it's negative things like fear & shame. The shadow as some folks call it. It goes without saying, I strongly recommend that seeing a therapist or coach will help.
The Process is important. Visualization. Meditation. Journaling. Exercise. All these contribute to improving your mental inner game.
The biggest competition is not with others but with yourself. Once you understand this you will look at life in a very different way.
This all seems simple and obvious but yet how many people actually do these? As Laozi states: “The Easy way seems Hard”
The Extremes of America: Why It’s both the Best & Worst Country on the Planet
If you get past the clickbaity title, you will find that it’s absolutely true. I am incredibly fortunate to have lived in San Francisco now for the last 22 years of my life and have a Love-Hate relationship with America. Trying not to sound ungrateful, I admit I been such a huge beneficiary of America. Yet I can definitely say that I’ve seen the country as a whole degrade substantially over the last decade. I speak as both an American and Canadian who has lived abroad and is fairly well travelled.
I don’t think I got how broken the USA was as a place until my young daughter told me how they had “Active Shooter” drills at her elementary school. A food system that is awful: cheap but unhealthy and captured by the corporate food industry. The widespread issue of mental health, homeless and guns. A rapidly declining education system at the pre-University level. How most bankruptcies are caused by healthcare costs and medical emergencies, despite having one of the most expensive healthcare systems in the world. Almost 17.7% of the GDP is spent on healthcare, almost $4 trillion dollars a year! The quality of life is really crap and America is literally like the book “No Country for Old Men” but with a badly run government by old white men. Life can be harrowing and honestly, I never really feel secure there. The quality of life is just not that great compared to Canada, Australia or New Zealand or most of Western Europe.
Yet despite all of this, I still can’t imagine doing business anywhere else. The United States will always be one of my bases. It’s one of the best places in the world for business and is the place to learn the craft of business. As President Coolridge once said “The business of America is Business!”
It is a massive market of 330M people that still attracts the best and brightest from around the world. America is one of the most commercial cultures that is highly competitive. And for the most part, still governed by law that is still business friendly unlike in many parts of the world. It is still the country of opportunity.
Yes, I do argue that the future opportunities of Africa and Latin America will be massive but for many the trade off in quality of life (ie. even higher crime rates there than in America) may be too much (as in my previous blog post on this topic. Here: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/high-opportunity-places-vs-high-quality). I worry about going soft and losing my edge when I spend too much time in Canada or Taiwan. The USA is the place to hone your skills and keeps you market ready and competitive.
But in this remote work world you can have both a high quality of life for a good price without missing out on business and investing opportunities. This is where the Digital nomad lifestyle comes into play. I still spend time in San Francisco but it’s limited with the bulk of my time in Canada & Taiwan with my family. I’ve also thrown in Ukraine and Portugal, Mexico and Japan (when it opens up). Basically it’s a “Follow the Sun” strategy where I spend time where the weather is nice. So for example, Europe & Canada is where I spend the bulk of spring and summer, while winter is when I am mainly in Taiwan (assuming they open their doors soon that is). This is very important as weather is a big driver of my mood and happiness.
The point is the problems and issues in America are also some of the biggest opportunities. There are so many things to be fixed. This is why we will continue seeing entrepreneurship grow and grow here. And as we’ve seen all it takes is a small percentage of amazing individuals to start a movement and change the world. Despite all the problems, as multi-billionaire Warren Buffet once said “Never Bet Against America.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 10th, 2021
“Endurance is one of the most difficult disciplines, but it is to the one who endures that the final victory comes.”― Gautama Buddha
"For the aspiring Sovereign Individual, a person of humble and growing means, you have to take a pragmatic approach to creating your passport portfolio.
Design your jurisdictional arbitrage strategy so that the countries you select address a couple of lifestyle needs and benefits.
That could include favorable policies for freedom of speech, business rule of law, crime, safety, graft, and quality of life. And of course it should also include countries with Covid policies that align with your beliefs.
You should consider border restrictions and other geopolitical considerations. Are you placing all your eggs in one basket with western nations? Should you be seeking citizenship in Western rival nations?
Are you designing your passport to consider both ascending and descending nations? 1st world, 2nd world, and 3rd world exposure?"
https://dougantin.com/lifes-tradeoffs-impact-where-you-live-why/
2. Shows how much Hollywood has sold out to China and the CCP.
"Hollywood’s China troubles are well known. Only a few U.S. movies get released each year in the world’s largest film market. Negative portrayals of China risk bans, not just for individual films but entire studios. Plot lines involving China’s government, let alone Chinese spymasters, are thus off limits.
2001’s Spy Game did feature a rare plot linked to China. But in general, no major Hollywood release has portrayed China’s government in a negative light since 1997’s Seven Years in Tibet, as analyst Matt Schrader has shown."
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/05/bond-no-time-to-die-daniel-craig-hollywood-china
3. Good observation.
"To me, the Great Fragmentation is the result of an alignment of interests, in every country, between the government and users. As proven by many industries, starting with Hollywood, user demand for customized products was long not enough to make the industry change its approach to serving national markets: the attraction of economies of scale was just too difficult to resist, and every corporation that could afford it tended to impose the same product on everyone on the global market.
Likewise, the fact that governments enforced a set of (stupid) local rules was never enough to make tech companies comply if users were perfectly happy with the product. In the end, the Shift/Fragmentation/Decolonization could happen if users andthe government agreed: together, we want a customized approach to serve our market, and we’ll force those big (US) tech companies to comply."
https://europeanstraits.substack.com/p/digital-sovereignty-thumbs-updown
4. "In a decentralized world, good geography will be one of the scarcest and most valuable assets on the planet again and it is currently undervalued since for most, they grew up in a world where geography hasn’t mattered.
I started thinking about geography in a decentralized world, and remembering my time in Asia, thought what is more scarce, durable, and independent than the Strait of Malacca?
This helps me think how to diversify investments geopolitically, while also understanding which areas to avoid in a region, like I think the CCP has serious problems for the reasons outlined above, but am bullish on Asia. Just specific places in Asia, like Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
The more I thought about how US naval doctrine will dictate responses to anything China does in earnest, it made a lot of sense from a variety of angles that Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia will do well."
https://www.radigancarter.com/dispatches/mahan-strait-of-malacca-and-dollars
5. Interesting......
"Unlike a few years ago, SoftBank is no longer the only gigantic fish in the VC pond. Rivals including Tiger Global Management, Coatue Management, Insight Partners and Andreessen Horowitz have raised bigger and bigger funds in the past couple of years. That’s helped these firms win some of the deals Son has wanted, said two people with direct knowledge of such deals.
The growing competitors also don’t have SoftBank’s baggage. High-profile implosions of WeWork and other portfolio companies in SoftBank’s first Vision Fund, such as construction tech company Katerra and lender Greensill Capital—both of which are now defunct—have tainted the Vision Fund’s name with some founders, even though the fund’s performance has rebounded overall."
"All told, 13 of the 23 investment partners listed on the Vision Fund’s website as of mid-2019 have since departed or recently announced they would leave. Only a handful of the departed partners were replaced. The moves resemble an exodus of partners from the Vision Fund nearly two years ago amid internal strife that tore apart the firm’s operations as its bets soured."
6. Don't agree with his assessment or conclusions as he definitely has a very Anti-US bent but....still worth a read.
"China, for all of its power and strength, actually has a VASTLY overrated military. The PLA’s record in actual combat is PISS-POOR. Despite the best attempts of Chinese propagandists to rewrite the history of China’s intervention in the Korean War, they lost 200,000 men in that war – that’s the LOWER END of the estimates of their actual casualties. Some estimates run as high as ONE MILLION DEAD on the Chinese side. Compared with some 40,000 (roughly) American and Western allied soldiers killed, and about a million South Korean soldiers and civilians killed, that loss ratio on China’s part is genuinely appalling – and even more so was the PLA leadership’s willingness to use attrition tactics without any thought for the lives of the men.
Some thirty years later, they couldn’t manage to defeat the Vietnamese – indeed, the Vietnamese were so unconcerned about China’s attempts to rebuke them for their invasion of Cambodia that they didn’t even bother diverting mainline army units to fight the Chinese."
https://didacticmind.com/2021/10/lessons-of-war-pt-1-red-storm-rising.html
7. YAH! My two favorite countries in Asia: Taiwan and Japan are getting closer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWgObGTYZrY
8. “If I'm playing the first South Asian superhero, I want to look like someone who can take on Thor or Captain America, or any of those people,” he says. But also because the character shrouds himself in the guise of a Bollywood star. Nanjiani grew up watching Bollywood movies—“From the '60s to the '90s I know basically every big [one],” says Nanjiani—so he knows those guys are jacked. “I was like, I want this to be believable. I want to feel that kind of powerful in this role.”
But his upbringing and career have primed Nanjiani to see the unexpected contours of things. So now he worries that, despite looking and feeling better than he ever has, he's nonetheless perpetuating the toxic image of masculinity that he grew up idolizing.
The way he looks is tied to a certain way of being a man. “It is aggression,” he says. “It is anger. A lot of times we are taught to be useful by using physical strength or our brain in an aggressive, competitive way."
https://www.gq.com/story/kumail-nanjiani-profile
9. "Four years ago, Bankman-Fried had yet to buy a single bitcoin. Now, five months shy of his 30th birthday, he debuts on this year’s Forbes 400 at No. 32, with a net worth of $22.5 billion. Save for Mark Zuckerberg, no one in history has ever gotten so rich so young. The irony? Bankman-Fried is no crypto evangelist. He’s barely even a believer. He’s a mercenary, dedicated to making as much money as possible (he doesn’t really care how) solely so he can give it away (he doesn’t really know to whom, or when).
Steve Jobs obsessed over his sleek and simple products. Elon Musk claims he’s in business to save humanity. Not Bankman-Fried, whose philosophy of “earning to give” drove him into the crypto gold rush, first as a trader, then as the creator of an exchange, simply because he knew he could get rich. Asked if he would abandon crypto if he thought he could pile up more money doing something else—say, trading orange juice futures—he doesn’t even pause: “I would, yeah.”
10. "Taiwan is the focus of more security cooperation in the United States. Whether or not allies could defend Taiwan successfully is one thing, but I think politically, you are seeing a coalition come together. And for Taiwan, that gives it a bit more space to maneuver, and I think it tends to offset some of the fear generated by this incursion."
https://www.vox.com/22713517/china-taiwan-tensions-united-states-xi-biden
11. Great advice.
"Here’s what I want you to know. It’s ok to walk away. It’s ok to change your mind. It’s ok to deeply listen to yourself. It’s ok to take a different path. It’s ok to press pause. It’s ok to question what matters most to you. It’s ok to leave a “great situation” behind. It’s ok to choose a calling over potential financial upside.
Just because you’re capable of doing something doesn’t mean it’s the right thing for you. Follow your energy and your passion. When that happens you’ll eventually become the person you are destined to become. I can’t think of anything more fulfilling and powerful than that."
12. For all founders raising money in the seed stage. Worth a read.
https://twitter.com/jwdanner/status/1446822778494078976
13. "Surely it makes sense to try to pack as many activities as possible into each day, to be sure we meet our goals before we shuffle off this mortal coil?
In reality, this may be the very worst thing we can do to live a happy and fulfilling life. In his new book, Four Thousand Weeks, psychology writer Oliver Burkeman argues that this only leads to disappointment and unhappiness – thanks to a phenomenon known as the “productivity trap”. In his view, we would do far better to slow down, rather than speed up, if we are to make the most of our short lifespans."
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210805-how-to-escape-the-productivity-trap
14. "Looking at 2022, any significant level of ongoing power disruptions will begin to cause fractures in China’s economy, particularly in the finance and heavy manufacturing sectors as well as within the population. Such fissures have in the past led to increased belligerence by China against neighboring and regional countries, which could have unexpected disruptive effects on maritime and air traffic in the Far East.
With regard to which sectors of the economic base will receive favored treatment for any surplus power, heavy manufacturing (auto, shipbuilding, infrastructure), high technology, energy (renewable and traditional), petrochemicals, medical, and metal processing will likely be protected first."
https://fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/coal-for-christmas
15. I'm a big fan of Georgia (the country) and this shows a strong case for adoption of Bitcoin here.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/.amp/culture/bitcoin-adoption-for-the-country-georgia
16. Worth watching this to understand what's happening in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVWAxZU89Ys
17. "To say the least, Dastmalchian is no longer broke or, as he puts it of his past, looking for his “next fix.” What he is doing is bringing an enormous amount of humanity to outcasts, even sometimes downright terrible people, who he feels nevertheless deserve a voice. He’s ready to bring it. And based on his standout roles in both The Suicide Squad as the fan favorite Polka-Dot Man (tormented with illuminated spots and not nearly as silly as he sounds) and the hotly anticipated Dune, which reunites him with Villeneuve, he’s delivered."
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a37897920/david-dastmalchian-suicide-squad-dune-interview/
18. "Kevin Ryan has become very wealthy by being at the right place at the right time — including at online ad network DoubleClick, which he joined as its twelfth employee and eventually ran as CEO (it was later acquired, twice) — as well as co-founding numerous companies, including the software company MongoDB, which is currently valued at roughly $30 billion as a publicly traded company. (Ryan still owns “at least half my shares” in the company, he says.)
The other day, we talked with Ryan about his biggest, newest bet, which is on healthcare tech."
19. Interesting observation: shows maturation of VC as asset class. Passive investing.
The Cycle of Life: Career, Crisis and Family
I’ve recently gotten into this recent modern Taiwanese tv series called “The Making of an Ordinary Woman”, which traces the story of a young career oriented lady who is making her life in the big city of Taipei far away from her family down in Tainan (southern Taiwan).
She spends so much of her youth trying to get away from family to carve out her own life. But after decades away, achieving a high level of career success, she finds herself very dissatisfied and gravitating back to her family in Tainan.
I find myself understanding this and relating to this a bit too much. I literally left Canada the moment I graduated from University in 1996. I could not wait to get out from the small and stifling environment of Vancouver. I remember the joke was that Vancouver had the best educated waiters and waitresses in the world due to the lack of good employment. I was determined to make something of myself elsewhere. What a grand adventure it has been.
But if the pandemic taught me anything, it's the importance of family. We all say this but do we really understand this point? Life is a cycle: It’s so weird. During the ongoing pandemic, I spent almost 20 months away from my parents in Canada and close to 9 months away from my daughter in Taiwan, due to the cursed travel bans and such. Family is something so easy to take for granted. Yet I’ve learned how precarious and precious they are. How safe and comfortable you feel even as an adult when you are with your parents.
“Life is long so you can go back and fix your mistakes, but it is short enough that you should not dwell on unhappiness.” (Quote from the show)
I don’t regret anything or the path my life and career has taken me. But things have changed so much in the world that you can now have it all with the rise of remote work and entrepreneurship globally. You can start a world class company or work at a high paying job from anywhere.
How amazing it is for young ambitious people these days. No more trade offs. Remote work opens up the possibility of not giving up family for career advancement. This is something I am fully taking advantage of now. And you should too.
Rip the Bandage OFF NOW: There is No Better Time for Personal Change
The reality right now is many people are feeling stuck & unhappy. A recent survey by Gartner states that only 13% are highly satisfied with their work. A whopping 46% are HIGHLY dissatisfied with their work experience. In 2020 and 2021, Americans have been shown to be the unhappiest they have ever been in 50 years, with just 14% of Americans stating they are very happy, a massive drop from 31% in 2018.
No surprise considering that we’ve gone through a pretty tumultuous time in the last one and half years: with the continuing pandemic, disastrously incompetent government reactions (or lack of reaction), riots in the street, massive fires, destruction of main street commerce, job destruction, an ongoing disaster in Afghanistan as i write. Morale is definitely down in America and people are feeling fatigued, worn out and listless.
Yet many people refuse or won’t take action to change their personal situation. Could be due to laziness or fear both being big drivers of inactivity. Or hope that things will get better by themselves. But relying on outside factors to change a recipe for failure. People should remember that the status quo is psychological death. Hope is NOT a strategy. If you don’t take any action or control of your own life, it’s a 100% percent guarantee that you will fail. Better to try something, heck try anything (outside of drugs and alcohol of course), at least the odds will be better for you.
But in my opinion, a big reason most people won’t take action is because they care about how any changes will be perceived by others. These are mainly family members, friends or their peers. Social acceptance of our actions is wired into our being and we worry about what other people think about us or what we do.
Yet the reality is no one really cares. In fact, they probably did not care before 2020 as they were busy with their own life. In 2021, with the continuing pandemic, many of us are stuck at home and isolated away from other people. People are now either in survival mode or engrossed more than usual in their own mainly virtual lives. They literally aren’t able to pay attention.
The result? It is now the BEST time to be making these big life changes because nobody is paying attention. So quit that soul destroying job. Join some workout program like Peloton or Tonal. Take some classes like an Ondeck Fellowship or David Perells “Write of Passage”, both which I highly recommend. Go start that side business or side hustle. If you are unhappy in your city; move to another one. Or move out of the country like many people I know. The world and society is transforming around us. You should do the same.
The best way to change your life is through action and movement. Much easier to do so in stealth conditions. If it works out, which it usually does, awesome. If it does not, who cares? No one is watching anyways. So go forth, you literally have nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 3rd, 2021
“Heroism is Endurance for one minute more”--George F. Kennan
"The point is that policies will shift as the nature of productive society changes.
The people and institutions that advocate for policies to stay the same and “go back to normal” are the immune system response of the elite players of the old game. The winners of the previous age protecting their status and influence.
We’re increasingly exposed to hostile messaging of the established system from the previous age. Intended to influence the world in order to reflect the old game at the cost of the new. Simultaneously, influencers of the new age attempt to wrestle control of public policies to reflect digital age needs.
This is a flash point, a tectonic fault line that causes friction along key areas of innovation.
In areas where the old system is overly defensive, the flash points are more severe. Making it likely that we see an acceleration of cognitive dissonance. Confusion for individuals struggling to decide what game to play. The old? Or the new?"
https://dougantin.com/how-tech-trends-change-the-rules-of-the-game/
2. "On a final positive note, 2021 is still the greatest time to be alive. Crypto currency is solving a large chunk of these issues in real time. Intermediaries simply sit in the “flow of money” and that rent extraction is moving to digital currencies. Therefore, we don’t even care about the prior three steps! They were just there to tell you the real issue (wealth disparity *not* income disparity).
Instead of fighting all of these loopholes, remember that no one is coming to save you. Not your boss, your family or your country. Save yourself by playing the game correctly (“Don’t hate the player, hate the game")
The game is won by creating digital income (online income) and investing into high quality technology firms and crypto currencies in our opinion. This way your income can be moved to a more tax friendly state/country. This is what the wealthy are doing so you should do it too."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/for-dummies-wealth-inequality-is
3. "And that is what you don’t understand in your complacency, you now have a generation who is now saying what you have been telling them back to you,
“Life isn’t fair, we will keep bringing it, and we don’t want your form of capitalism”
You should be very worried. I have seen this play out overseas. You are a Baby Boomer who is soft, past his prime, doesn’t bench press his bodyweight, and works with a keyboard and not a rifle with much to lose.
Being complacent is survivable in a stable society. It is not a winning strategy when volatility finds you in life.
But life is nothing but volatility and when you continually try to suppress it, instead of addressing the cause of it, you only compound the problem.
What starts as economic and market volatility becomes political volatility which finally transforms to societal volatility."
https://www.radigancarter.com/dispatches/the-wall-street-insurgency
4. "The wolves are circling within and without, defining our new reality through dialectic and drafting all souls into the conflict whether they choose to care or not. China or a US-led Anglosphere?
Corporatocratic authoritarianism or fascistic traditionalism? And thus we each find ourselves locating our place in this age of the Long Defeat. It will not end easy, and likely not bloodlessly.
May God curse the weak men and women who have succumbed in this moment to the easy siren songs of nihilism, collectivism, or authoritarianism. They who have betrayed liberty, the most precious of gifts granted to man."
https://fortisanalysis.substack.com/p/the-long-defeat
5. This is a good interview with an interesting entrepreneur & investor. All about learning opportunities.
https://expatmoneyshow.com/episodes/yaro-starak/
6. "While P2E gaming is still in its infancy, games like Axie Infinity have proven that hundreds of thousands of people can earn money and create monetizable value through play. Assuming this model holds up, we will likely see gaming transform from an activity that distracts players from being productive into one that allows people to earn a livelihood in the economy of the future."
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/playing-earning-working-learning
7. Tech legends here.
8. Worth a read to understand what's up in VC these days.
https://twitter.com/magdalenakala/status/1443382644809547783
9. "The seemingly unique techniques of freediving, then, translate beyond the bounds of freediving. To other sports, to work, to relationships with colleagues and friends and family. There are, it turns out, benefits to better breathing, to masterful body control, and to pursuing the state of mindfulness that is required to plunge to unfathomable depths without freaking the fuck out and accidentally killing yourself. “There is a part of freediving,” the world's best freediver, Alexey Molchanov, says, “that can be very useful for everyone.”
"There is, though, also the allure of records. The raw number. How deep can we go as a species?Today, there is one diver who goes the deepest, who blends the physical and metaphysical like no one else in the sport. Watching the 34-year-old Russian Alexey Molchanov dive can be dangerously disorienting. Seemingly anyone else attempting what he does would die. It is like watching the world's best rock climber scale a sheer face with ease, only the inverse. That's one way to think of what he's doing: Free Solo but for drowning. Free Solo but down. And no one alive goes down like Alexey Molchanov."
https://www.gq.com/story/freediver-alexey-molchanov-profile
10. For Dune fans, this is good to know. Love this book series.
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a37771990/best-dune-books-in-order/
11. "The best way to handle the risks and uncertainty of scalable occupations is to share them. Doctors or fitness instructors or writers or investment advisors worried about the future can issue tokens and let their fans and customers participate in their careers' ups and downs.
And just like with celebrities, sharing risk is only part of the story. By letting other people invest in you, you are incentivizing them to promote your own story and do their best to increase your tokens' value.
In such a scenario, every career becomes a pyramid scheme. If you can attract enough people to buy your tokens, and they can attract enough people to buy even more tokens, the whole enterprise will continue to increase in value. This increase will happen regardless of how much revenue you can generate from doing your actual job. And it will continue until you run out of stories to tell, or until you run out of people to tell stories to.
There are a lot of people on the internet."
https://www.drorpoleg.com/the-ponzi-career/
12. "The flood of new Miamians who have arrived, full or part time, during the pandemic includes tech investors (Peter Thiel, David Sacks), cryptocurrency bulls (Anthony Pompliano, Ari Paul), new-media tycoons (Bryan Goldberg, Dave Portnoy), start-up founders (Alexandra Wilkis Wilson, Steven Galanis), and many more who aren’t yet billionaires but think the Magic City will give them their best shot.
They’re breaking sales records for dock-accessed mansions by day and packing the new branches of Carbone and Red Rooster by night. The boom is visible in the city’s crane-spiked skyline, too, with deals for Spotify, Microsoft, Apple, and TikTok either signed or in the offing. In greater South Florida, a related incursion by the finance industry — Goldman Sachs, Citadel, Elliott — is in full swing.
Wall Street may not be quaking over Miami’s ascendancy, but in the zero-sum game among cities, San Francisco is indisputably feeling some pain. In July, according to Redfin, Miami was the top migration destination for home buyers in the U.S., while San Francisco had the largest homeowner exodus."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/09/how-miami-seduced-silicon-valley.html
13. "Over the last decade, Peak and other Turkish gaming studios have transformed Istanbul into the world capital of the “casual game” (otherwise known as free-to-play games) industry. Unlike AAA games, like Halo, Assassin’s Creed, or Final Fantasy, casual games are mobile-native, easy to learn, shorter to play and target the broadest audience possible. According to 2020 statistics, around 58.86% of all mobile game players are casual gamers. It’s estimatedthat the global market for casual gaming is worth more than $8 billion.
In March 2021, six of the Apple App Store’s top ten mobile games in the U.S. came from Turkish studios......And Istanbul has become a magnet for up-and-coming game developers."
https://restofworld.org/2021/turkey-gaming-peak/
14. "NFT collections, and especially the latest wave of ‘avatar communities’ aka PFP collections, have the potential to mirror this healthy dynamic. When we own a SupDuck or Cryptoad, we have a motivation to engage in behavior that makes everyone’s ownership more significant.
As ‘residents’ of that virtual neighborhood, we all have an interest in broadening the list of ‘stuff you get’ as part of your NFT. And yet, the vast majority of these projects pay only lip service to that potential. The vast majority of projects offer only hand-waving assurances of future amenities. Rather than investing in genuinely valuable services for its community, the focus tends rather to be on shilling and stunts to generate FOMO.
Most of today’s Web3 virtual neighborhoods are following the history of the physical world’s McMansions; building 10,000 ‘homes’ in the middle of nowhere hoping people move in. The awareness that needs to take place in order to avoid a mass flippening is the approach Web3 takes to constructing neighborhoods. Instead of just finding land, developing homes and hoping community fosters through a shared space, developers need to invest in making sure individual buyers get value out of their experience. This means making sure that every single day, there is something happening in the community. NFTs communities can be awesome, we just need to start building shit inside of them."
https://darkstar.mirror.xyz/VTLvmo0xzs6I9YFIN2f7EZna-Zj4tNIEbF7RVpJOS7s
15. This is a must read for founders. It’s a weird market right now.
"With the current market, Series A+ investors are using a couple of strategies which work to their favor but are not that great for founders. One strategy is to seed fund companies you like to give yourself an advantage if they do achieve PMF. The main problem with this for founders is that venture investors know nothing about finding PMF unless the specific partners was a serial founder or has an immense amount of seed experience.
They also have no time to spend with their optionality bets. However, founders love the brands of these firms and will often allow them to crowd out seed investors who would be more helpful. This is seen regularly in YC demo days where venture investors will write checks to capture the optionality of promising companies. Only later do founders realize that there is nothing but cash and some brand value in these deals, the partners don’t have time or expertise for the dirty work and experimentation to find PMF."
16. The man is a Libertarian kook but he has some good ideas. (and pretty good contrarian investor and writer).
"First of all, education is something that you provide for yourself. It’s not something that somebody—certainly not the State—gives you.
....even if you don’t want to internationalize, the next best thing is to quit your job and become self-employed.
But beyond that, in order to have control of your life, you need capital, which gives you flexibility and room to run.
So how do you get that capital?
If you’re not in a position to quit your job and become self-employed, then take a second job— part-time. The advantage of that is your income will go up and your expenses, in the way of consuming, will go down. Put that money aside.
The key is to cut your spending to the bone and save. That means don’t buy that new car or trade up to a larger house. Don’t go out and get a new wardrobe.
Build capital while the economy and the currency are still held together. Capital will allow you to take advantage of opportunities in the future, as opposed to getting deeper in debt like a serf."
17. This is a very exciting future here enabled by software.
"The solo stacks of the future will offer a mix of these three things (depending on what makes sense for any industry), giving workers the tools — and thus, the confidence — to leave their jobs. The software will be vertical-specific, as well, as lawyers, personal trainers, money managers, and graphic designers all need different tools, have different customers to market to, and require access to different networks to do their jobs."
https://future.a16z.com/solo-workers-software-stack/
18. "Look, I’m all for using “green energy.” However, I’m a realist—you need to first build the “green economy” before you shut off the “carbon economy.” Going through the steps in reverse, is bound to create an energy crisis—which may incidentally be the goal here. If carbon is unaffordable, everyone will be forced to pivot into “green energy”—costs be damned. I’m a hedgie; this will be a minor inconvenience for me—it will cause chaos for most of society."
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/09/29/will-esg-create-the-next-lehman-moment/
19. Insightful read.
"Reading this list, it felt like a kind of post-mortem that could apply not just to the Vietnam War, but with a few minor revisions, the War on Terror, personal and work relationships, failed product launches, the tumble of once-great corporations."
Iron Versus Gold: Learning to Love Good Times and Bad Times
War time and Peace Time. Depressions and Boom Times.
I’ve thought alot about why militaries that are developed during times of peace tend to get wrecked in the beginning of the war. The generals who rise and run it during peace tend to be bureaucrats and politicians versus true warriors or strategists who only emerge when the S--t hits the fan. And you literally will not know until you go to war. This is why wargaming and stress testing is so important.
This is why I’m worried about investors who have only been through a bull market. Everything they learn only works when the market goes up. Risk tolerance goes up.They over-leverage themselves. Then the market turns and they get REKT. Badly.
This is the same with employees, especially software engineers who have only been in high demand coming out of school. They get their inevitable raises, keep making more money. Or if they have some small issue with the company they can literally move to another company in the same building and get a 20% raise. Entitlement grows, they fall into the Hedonistic Adoption treadmill where their cost structure goes up. The economy inevitably turns or more likely the programming language they use becomes outdated. If you don’t think this can happen, try asking any COBOL or BASIC programmer. I’m clearly not a programmer. But as an investor watching the rise of the No Code/Low Code movement, I do see a day when many programming jobs go the way of coal miners.
The skill sets useful for rising markets become major encumbrances in a falling one. And vice versa. I was listening to an interesting podcast talking about Iron versus Gold. During good times, gold is valuable as a signal of success and to flex. But during wartime Iron is far more useful as it can be turned into weapons, while Gold is pretty useless for forging weapons. There is a place and time for everything. The secret and key is knowing when to hold and use either one.
This is the iron law of cycles. What goes up, must come down. When times are good, you should still be testing and preparing yourself for the inevitable bad time. I don’t mean to be paranoid. Enjoy the good times and don't assume it will last forever. Always try to stay in the present and enjoy the moment.
Same with the bad times, know that it will not be forever. Squeeze whatever joy you can out of it. Be present and don’t overthink things. All you have to do is to make it through. If you do, you will have much to look forward to. No different than what I have been seeing in San Francisco these last few weeks. This last year was plain awful for the restaurant business with many shutting down. But for the best ones who have survived, business has come back very strong. Try going to brunch at Sweet Maple or Plow. The line is literally around the block.
We humans are built to be highly adaptable & resilient compared to most other species even though we hate and fight change. Embracing this and learning skill sets and mindsets to prepare for both up and downcycles will be critical for everyone. As US Army General Eric Shinseki said:“If you dislike change, you're going to dislike irrelevance even more.”
Consistency is King & Queen in Startups, Business & Life
Lessons from archery class. Instructor recommends focusing on groupings and consistency. Then focus on “Gap Shooting” which is the process of shooting one arrow to see where it lands and how far from the target. Use that as a measure to focus where you shoot the rest of arrows to hit the target. It’s the same principle when you fire artillery like mortars and heavy cannons.
Consistency is important to figure out what you are doing well and what you are not. Everything takes time and you can’t count on beginners' luck in the long run.
Works in Startups too. Make regular groupings and have a regular sample set.
Your first investments will suck. Your first shots will be off. But you keep fine tuning ie. Gap Shooting along the way.
This is why you have to practice and do something A LOT. I know the 10,000 hour rule Malcom Gladwell popularized to get really good at something has now been obsoleted. But the principle still sort of stands. If you want to get good at something you need to be prepared to spend a lot of time on it. Too many people quit too early.
How many podcasters or bloggers or Youtubers start off super excited but then drop off. These wannabe Creators or Influencers usually end up releasing 2-5 things but due to the lack of feedback they just quit. Seriously, most people drop off after a few tries and this is why most people fail at getting what they want. They lack the discipline and commitment to do something for a long time without the recognition and fanfare. (I should also add that you need to work on figuring out proper online marketing and distribution too. The “Build it and They Will Come” strategy in this busy and crowded media world DOES NOT Work).
The best goals are intrinsic ones: doing something that is naturally satisfying or gives you personal reward. When I started writing online, I committed to writing and publishing for a full 2 years even if no one reads it. I genuinely hope that people will read it and it will help them. But at the same, I also really don’t care if no one reads it. Why? This writing helps me personally by fine-tuning my thinking, processing all the things I see around me and acting as therapy.
So the point: keep on creating and making even if there is no audience. Harvey Mackay is right when he says: "Small disciplines repeated with consistency every day lead to great achievements gained slowly over time."
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Sept 26th, 2021
“A great obstacle to happiness is to expect too much happiness.”--Bernard De Fontenelle
Woke is a joke.
"This also holds true at country level. Countries that implement ever-stricter woke regulation will likely fall behind economically. This will trickle through to individual companies, and to their owners and employees. "Go woke, go broke" does carry a lot of truth in it, and it will affect people in the US and Europe."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/woke-ceos-bad-for-your-investment-performance/
2. Africa is one of the biggest and most exciting opportunity in the next decades.
3. Big fan of Josh Brolin. Can't wait to watch him in Dune.
“I’m just a junkie at heart. You know what I mean? I don’t want to get too far into this, but the idea of safety sounds like death to me.”
4. "In a way, it's easy to see why the nickname Little Prince has trailed Wizkid, born Ayodeji Ibrahim Balogun, since he started making music in the mid-2000s. It's a career arc that runs parallel with the emergence of Afrobeats as a distinct genre, or at least as a distinct wave within Afropop.
The genre fuses the song structures of R&B with the distinctive melodic energy of West African palm wine music, pushing the hard, offbeat pulse of Jamaican dancehall into a more polyrhythmic clave. The sin Afrobeats nicely captures a plurality inherent to the sound itself, which is less a set formula than a constellation of Afromusics, made in West Africa but for an audience that encompasses the whole Black Atlantic diaspora."
https://www.gq.com/story/wizkid-king-of-afropop
5. Jason Momoa is the MAN!
"This sort of full-throttle enthusiasm is Momoa’s true superpower, demonstrating that he’s got more than physical DNA to sustain his rapidly multiplying pursuits. Beyond his most visible presence as an actor, now he’s producing documentary passion projects and even parlaying his ongoing relationship with Harley-Davidson into directing a six-part series spotlighting real riders around the country."
6. "In this kind of a conflict, public image will be the key. True, Cold War 2 looks likely to be less ideological than Cold War 1, because the Soviet Union was more interested than China in trying to export universalist principles. But the basic idea will be the same. If people in China think the U.S. offers a better model, they’ll be dissatisfied with the kind of system Xi Jinping is trying to force them into. If people in other countries are turned off by the kind of system they see developing in China, they’ll be more wary of being China’s ally, and so on.
But that process could easily run in the other direction. If people see America as a chaotic, ineffectual, terminally divided, deeply unequal, unfair society, they’re not going to see the U.S. as a model or trust it as an ally. And currently, the U.S. isn’t doing amazingly well in this regard."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/us-vs-china-a-battle-of-ideas-not
7. Gatorade! Fascinating.
"An undisclosed share of Gatorade’s profits flow to a Gatorade Trust. The trust then sends 20% to the university, which employed the professor who invented the drink nearly 60 years ago.
In 2015, Florida announced it had accumulated ~$250m from the royalties. Its annual take over the last few years has been ~$20m, according to the university.
These days, many universities cash in through IP policies that ensure they get the bulk of proceeds from anything invented by their staff. But that didn’t happen at Florida in 1965. Gatorade led to an expensive dispute between the inventors, the university, and the federal government.
Depending on how much credit you believe belongs to inventors or institutions, Florida’s cut from the sports drink is either way too much, or not nearly enough."
https://thehustle.co/why-the-university-of-florida-gets-a-20m-cut-of-gatorade-profits-every-year
8. "She’s the first Black woman in the Open era to be ranked the number one female tennis player in the world; she’s won a combined 21 Grand Slam championships and 4 Olympic gold medals. She also, somehow, found the time to get two degrees (in fashion design and business administration) and launch three companies (more on those later). It’s the kind of résumé that would be impressive for any athlete....."
9. Worth listening to. Jim Rogers is one of the best global macro investors around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYY9bal71OM&list=PL7vUOWh5dtHN0HL-ckjHLeXfW8vZgo0H8
10. Part 2 of a fascinating interview with one of the best Global macro investors around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DYLy6RWjv4&t=0s
11. Lots to learn from Bezos and crew at Amazon.
https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/lifestyle/article/jeff-bezos-tips-for-success
12. If you want to understand what's happening in the economy today, this is worth watching. Hard choices for Central Bankers: a credit collapse or riots in the street.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-gr3bfXnNs
13. Hope he is right.
"On the domestic scene, Xi Jinping has amassed virtually unlimited power for himself and his allies, meaning risking war would be an unnecessary gamble. Xi can already boast of cracking down on Hong Kong, subduing Xinjiang, and reclaiming most of the contested South China Sea. But if invading Taiwan went badly, none of that would matter: his legacy in P.R.C. history would forever be tarnished.
And this brings us to the most important reason why China will not invade Taiwan: the costs of doing so, even given China’s enormous military build-up, would be too high. It would be political suicide.
If China invades, the American people will rally around the besieged democracy."
https://supchina.com/2021/06/07/no-china-will-not-invade-taiwan/
14. Always interesting profiles here.
https://www.theproofwellness.com/clarity-content-and-imposter-syndrome-with-nikhil-basu-trivedi
15. This is pretty awful.
“The lead partner took meetings barefoot, and would pick his feet incessantly. During one meeting, he lit a cigarette and smoked it in his office, windows closed. He finally put it down in his lunch plate, and poured his coffee over the cigarette to extinguish it. I didn’t know if it was some weird power play, or if he just lacked any kind of manners.”
SoftBank did not respond to multiple requests for comment on this story. But the Vision Fund has over the years won a reputation for eccentricity, and executives have even become known for their barefoot meetings — notably Rajeev Misra, the London-based head of the Vision Fund."
https://sifted.eu/articles/softbank-monzo-blomfield-feet/
16. This is pretty damn cool. Trento is beautiful.
17. Also appreciate the shout out here.
"This post is intended to show a specific way anyone can create personalized evergreen content. Why would you do that? Because in the digital age, you want to exist online. And you want to bypass the urge to enter into the attention economy’s arms race."
https://dougantin.com/evergreen-content-ideas-youd-hate-to-forget/
18. The Asian American Indiana Jones.
https://asamnews.com/2019/11/10/meet-a-real-life-indiana-jones-in-lost-cities/
19. Can't wait to read this new book on Peter Thiel whose influence on this generation of Silicon Valley founders & investors is hard to argue against.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/peter-thiel-silicon-valley-contrarian-max-chafkin.html
20. "We’ve already seen this story play out in 2008-2009. When there is massive default (Lehman) governments decide to print money. The emergency bailout for 2008/2009 crash was ~$700B. Evergrande has ~$300B in liabilities. We have printed over $5T with another $3.5T bill being pushed through shortly.
Therefore? Our current bet is on a lot of monetary policy measures/bailouts to prevent a massive collapse (once again). In short, money printer go Brr and a continued push for Modern Monetary Theory.
While we’re getting some panic messages about the price action (of crypto) in September we’re not surprised. In the end, none of this matters.
Both solutions end the same: 1) print tons of money? people will then question the value of the currency as they see *asset* inflation pick up - remember the stock market recovery in 2010-2019 and 2) if you allow for widespread default, there is a lot of near-term pain/suffering and people begin to question the merits of the system they are in (painful unemployment numbers).
There is no way we’re changing our macro view of the world since it leads to the same conclusion: the need for a new financial system designed for a deflationary environment as technology continues to eat jobs."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-evergrande-fisaco-avoiding-irrational
21. For those folks trying to understand NFTs.
"And now consider NFTs, which bring scarcity along with provenance of ownership to digital goods.
NFTs are essentially digital Veblen goods. For those who want to signal status especially in the digital world, “flexing” ownership of valuable JPEGs i.e. NFTs is one of the easiest ways.
One of the most popular forms of this “flex” is NFTs as profile pictures on Twitter and other forms of social media. You’ve probably seen people with these apes or punks or penguins as their profile photos."
https://tanay.substack.com/p/nfts-as-financial-assets-status-identity
22. "Altman’s feat reflects a new trend in startup investing. Some founders are taking on the additional role of venture capitalists, investing money from financial institutions and wealthy individuals at the same time they are guiding their own companies through critical growth periods. These include Zach Perret, CEO and co-founder of banking technology startup Plaid, and Josh Browder, founder of startup DoNotPay, as well as Altman.
Armed with fresh capital, some founders are even beginning to lead investment rounds for young startups through their venture funds, a role that reflects the larger size of their investments. They are adding to the ranks of nontraditional investors, including hedge funds and solo venture capitalists, who are increasingly competing with established VC firms for stakes in the next generation of technology startups."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/more-startup-ceos-are-moonlighting-as-vc-investors
23. "This is the Hunter Economy: a series of products that will enable people to gain status as hunters and curators, gaining social and financial capital in their favorite people, businesses, and ideas in the process. Product Hunt, Reddit, and Kickstarter may be to the next generation of Hunter Economy startups what Web 2.0 will be to Web 3 more broadly—the inspiration for what was next to come."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/the-hunter-economy
24. Can't argue with this.
"Yet with COVID, as with the Afghanistan boondoggle, the stated goals have been ever-shifting and often nebulous. "Two weeks to flatten the curve" evolved into "defeating the virus"—whatever that means—and of course "building back better," which is to say, exploiting the pandemic to forcibly impose a full-spectrum progressive agenda.
Routing al-Qaeda and the Taliban regime that harbored it evolved into making Zurich out of Kandahar. And if "zero-COVID" is the implicit goal, it is equally as farcical. The totalitarian means that would be employed in a bid to achieve that would only compound the disaster. In both cases, mission creep was baked in from the beginning by dint of the mission itself.
The measures by which to achieve these vague goals have proven similarly haphazard. With COVID, our authorities conjured social distancing rules almost out of thin air; urged us to wear no masks and then up to three at a time, despite their questionable efficacy; and imposed on-again, off-again lockdowns—all selectively enforced based on political ideology."
25. "Where, when and how does the burgeoning Forever Pandemic end? No one has said, but it is not hyperbole to see the makings of a biomedical security state apparatus."
https://www.newsweek.com/covid-becoming-afghanistan-pandemics-opinion-1631721
26. 110% agree and putting my money and time where my mouth is.
"Despite some of the success stories, I believe many Eastern European startups are still overlooked and undervalued. For investors, this represents a massive untapped opportunity."
https://techcrunch.com/2021/09/22/are-eastern-european-startups-overlooked-and-undervalued/
26. Food for thought. George Gammon has a very good Youtube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oda0FEI6M8M
27. This is the best podcast & with special guest Balaji Srininavasan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2iNXMiGEms
28. "Once people are free to live and work from where they want, governments will have to compete for the “cream” citizens – entrepreneurs and skilled people.
Think about it – let’s say you’re a high-income person who can work from anywhere in the world.
Would you rather live in a place with high taxes, or would you like to live in a place with low taxes?
Would you rather live in a place with good law and order, or a place where it’s unsafe to go out?
Would you live in a place where it costs 80% of your income to live, or a place where you can live a great life in only 20% of your income?
All of these are questions that people will have to answer for themselves.
If a government wants the best of the planet to live in its territory, it will have to offer compelling reasons for doing so. The time where people just didn’t have a choice is now gone."
https://lifemathmoney.com/the-cryptowfh-age-a-look-into-the-future/
29. "There's a question whether these funds are playing offense or defense. Offense: Snap up larger stakes in the best startups earlier. Defense: Don't let the Tigers of the world eat their lunch in later stages. The answer: Both, as VCs get sandwiched.
--Tiger Global, Coatue and SoftBank have moved their way down the stack from being purely growth money to leading series A and B rounds with some frequency. They're even being spotted in some seed deals.
--Bubbling up from the bottom are investor-operators and solo capitalists like Lachy Groom and Josh Buckley. They're now leading early rounds and besting some name-brand firms in the process.
--Serial entrepreneur Hiten Shah told me that he thinks the new megafunds for seed rounds are more of a reaction to the investor-operator dynamic than the Tiger cram-down. "The founders are going to investor-operators and everyone knows that," said Shah.
--He sees these announcements more as marketing to attract founders. From his perspective, brand name alone isn't doing it. "I think those firms are dealing with a deal-flow problem," Shah said."
https://mailchi.mp/protocol/the-arms-race-in-seed-funding?e=ba0e3a5060
Self Sovereignty versus Growing Government: Why You Need Citizenship Insurance
Libertarianism is stupid. No government is anarchy. Just look at Somalia.
But the ongoing growth of government reach into almost every sector of life is not a good thing. Having bigger organizations and throwing bodies at something does not usually equate to better results.
In fact, the bigger an organization is, the dumber and slower it is. And even less responsive to “customer” needs. This is the case in both business and government. They start to focus on internal issues versus external needs as critical mass and attention is spent inside.
I think this accounts for the gross incompetence we see in governments everywhere around the world in 2020 and 2021 as they have tried facing the ongoing pandemic. No surprise it was the smaller countries that were able to weather and adapt to things faster and better. Ie. Singapore, Estonia, Finland & Israel. It’s been pretty ugly in India, USA, Brazil, Russia, Mexico all over the European Union.
Yet even previous outperformers like New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and Canada are now overreacting due to their unrealistic goal of zero-ism ie. zero cases. This is leading to the massive overreach of the government. Full Lockdowns even on the basis of one case, large fines for protesting and leaving their neighbourhood, while destroying the main street small business owners by forced shutdowns. All driven by possibly well meaning but “so called experts” and faceless unaccountable bureaucrats who continue to lie to us.
First masks don’t work, now they do work, now you have to wear them as a mandate etc. etc. (For the record, I’m pro mask and pro vaccine but also think idiots should have a right to do what they want. There is no law against stupidity & ignorance). They also shut down any conversations and discussions that question their dogma. It’s very easy for these government experts and officials to push for enforced closures through lockdowns and anti-eviction mandates. Especially when they are still getting paychecks and aren’t really taking any hit themselves.
No surprise, I’ve become pretty disillusioned and angry about most of the respective governments and political parties I live under (both the Republicans and Democrats are self serving scum). It’s one thing if they were competent & for the greater good of society ie. well meaning. These people are clearly NOT. Edward R. Murrow said: “A Nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves.”
I’m never going to be under lock down anymore. If you value your freedom you should be prepared to do the same. This is why we need to be watching them closely and be prepared to question everything they do. And it’s also why I’ve come around strongly to the idea of being very well-armed & well trained. I am focusing on financial independence, so I can take care of my family, my friends and neighbours. I am also building up multiple country passports and residence visas. I’m ready to fight but am also ready to exit to more welcoming places if I need to.
As Andrew Henderson, the Nomad Capitalist says: “Go where you are treated best.”