Surviving the Fourth Turning: Learning from Doomberg

I’m a longtime subscriber and fan of Doomberg, the anonymous green chicken and newsletter writer. I’ve gotten some really sober yet enlightening takes on the world of economics and geopolitics. Doomberg writes about the world through the lens of energy and believes energy can explain what is happening in geopolitics. One of their common quotes is: “Energy is Life” and I agree with this view. 

In an interview done in February, he does a good summary of his views and his takes on recent geopolitical news. It’s quite sobering and counter the dominant media narrative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSAN5JmgvAk

I pulled out some things that stood out to me. 

His view on personal finance and the portfolio he has built. Ie. what he invests in. Hard assets like land and gold and things he can control, like building his own businesses and venture capital & private equity-style investments. 

“So why do we have a lot of Bitcoin subscribers even though we don't own Bitcoin. We own a lot of gold, our philosophy I think resonates with people who like to own Bitcoin when we earn money in fiat. We have to live in a fiat based world. I got to buy groceries. Got to pay my kids tuition. Got to put gas in the guzzler. And we save by buying real assets, gold, land, collectibles. This is where Bitcoin would come in. And then we earn and we invest privately where we can impact the outcome. So I can't bring myself to invest in the stock market because like most of them are Ponzi schemes. 

But I can build businesses. We've built Doomberg and you know we have friends and networks and contacts and expertise and if we see the startup or we invest in a company and we know the management team, we can help them out get an introduction. Hey, they need a talent, I know somebody on the bench over here, you know you can affect the outcome.  Sweat alpha as I like to call it and that's our philosophy. And then look and just prepare, so I would say the acres and ounces I own, put a floor under my net worth in all scenarios. They're not making any more land. 

There's only so much Bitcoin that'll ever circulate. I understand that scarcity is one of the reasons why people like to invest in Bitcoin. There's only so much gold. The stock to flow for gold is very impressive. 2-3% a year. And 20 American Eagles will buy

you a really nice appointed midsize SUV. It would have 20 years ago and it will in 20 years. And so you know when I buy another American Eagle and toss it in a safe somewhere, I'm preserving purchasing power for my kids. That's how I view it.

And so, you know, at the individual sovereign level, I totally understand the attractiveness of Bitcoin. Not for me personally, but that doesn't mean I don't understand why many of my friends own a fair bit of it. Just remember what it's for. It's not for an investment. It's the preservation of value. It's the ability to port some money over a border. Not that I would ever do that, but you know, just make sure you don't lose your keys. :)”

His specific recommendations as a Prepper-minded individual are Bitcoin and Gold.

“Like part of this journey is being authentically who you are. And so I understand Bitcoin. I have lots of friends who own it. I wake up tomorrow and Bitcoin's a million dollars. I'm going to be happy for my friends who own it. I'm going to be scared about what it means for the rest of my portfolio because a lot of it is dollar denominated. But you know, my home and the other land I own and the gold that I own and the collectibles that I own, you know, those things will probably do well if Bitcoin's at a million dollars. I think there's a high correlation between gold and Bitcoin. 

Perhaps the volatility of Bitcoin is a little higher these days than gold, but I mean, again, not to get too overly philosophical about the whole thing, but that's kind of where my head is. I actually agree, too. I mean, I think that something that gets discounted as well is like if Bitcoin goes to a million tomorrow or very quickly, just even call it the next month or the next couple months or whatever.” 

You can tell the prepper and conservativeness here in Doomberg. I suspect he is a fellow Gen X guy like me, who has seen so many people get screwed in the workplace, on Wall Street and by their government all around the world. We learn a lot from history. 

Doomberg does too. History is helpful for global macro investors and helps you with pattern recognition. This way nothing phases you too much. 

 “If you want to see max pain, read When Money Dies, the you know, hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic. And I mean like give it a serious read. We're nowhere near that. You and I and others like us are blessed and condemned with good pattern recognition, which means we see where things are going perhaps before most. And by the way, in the financial world, being early is being wrong, right? 

So it's one of the great lessons of my own personal investing journey, which is, I'm not a good trader. Don't trade. You're not good at something, don't do it. I'm on a hunch and I stare at losses for too long. So, those aren't great attributes for a trader. No matter how right you are on things directionally, you can't get the timing or the portfolio management right, you're going to fail. So, I see all of that.” 

He gives some great advice on how to make it through the upcoming chaos of the Fourth Turning. Charity starts at home. Build your tribe. Take care of your people. Then you can help others more. Be prepared. 

“Again back to the very first question you asked me, right?  Don't be a martyr. Don't be a whistleblower. The stories we tell ourselves about the hero martyrs of the past probably didn't quite go down that way. You know, I think it's okay to be a little selfish, to optimize for you, to be generous with your inner circle. The further somebody is from you, it's okay to care a little less about them. That's a natural human tendency, you know.  

I care about my wife, care about my kids, care about my neighbors, care about my family, care about my business friends who've helped me along the way, care a little less about the ones who screwed me over. You know how it is. And so you know it's okay to be aware. It's okay to prepare. It's generally not okay to dwell and generally not productive to panic. So I’ve spent a lot of time on preparedness.” 

And Doomberg has the right mindset which he describes below further:

You know, I'm what a psychologist would say, a defensive pessimist. I spend a lot of time pondering worst case scenarios and risk developing plans to abate it. That frees me up, you know, gives me the freedom to take more risks in life and have been managed to parlay the torture of seeing where things are going and not being able to really affect the arc of it with putting myself in a much better position than I would otherwise be. So again, you know, I don't have all the answers, but that's my answer. That's my worldview.” 

It’s not all doom and gloom, there is always hope in the long run if we study history. 

“You know, Grant Williams, a good friend of ours. He's a content creator. I'm sure you're aware of him. He has a great podcast, the Grant Williams podcast. He's good. Simon Macallovich was a guest of his and Simon is a big gold bug. In fact, put his money where his mouth is. He has a gold storage business and comes from Russia. Comes from the Soviet Union, I guess. It's probably more accurate.

Defected or, you know, was made to leave the Soviet Union at a certain time, I think, in the 70s. He was talking about everything his grandparents had gone through and um World War I, the Russian Revolution, World War II, 20 mill, you know, 20 million Russians. Soviet Union, the Cold War, and like you go to St. Petersburg or Moscow today as you were saying. And you know, Japan was nuked, Germany was totally raised, like totally destroyed. Human beings are very resilient. Cultures are resilient. Societies are resilient. 

There's a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the US, about Canada, about North America, the Western Hemisphere. Let's hope the friction of the upcoming transition is such that we can make it through to the other side with as much value and you know monetary and ethical and cultural value as possible preserved. And that you don't make any fatal mistakes, do anything that will bring shame to your family and so on. And that's hard to do. It's hard to see that vision, especially when you have a credible claim that much of the spoils of what your prior generations were able to enjoy aren't available to you. Doesn't mean they won't ever be available to you and you need to position yourself to take full advantage when the opportunity arises.”

So the whole point from all of this as always, get smart and  learn from history. Stay alive, get strong and position yourself and your family to make it through the chaos. There will be light at the end of the tunnel. There always is.