Off Season Travel: A Parable for Investing

I took my family to Niseko for a ski trip during my daughter’s spring break. It worked out well because I had some business meetings in Tokyo and was speaking/judging at the Take Off Tokyo conference around that time anyways. 

What I did not know was that the peak season had just ended right before we arrived. Hence many stores and restaurants were closed, as were the regular services like direct and regular shuttle buses to the hotels and main center of Hirafu. So we had to take a few trains to get here. Basically it was not so convenient. 

On the other hand, there were less people, less crowds. Lots of discounted services and products in the places that were open as it was off peak. Additionally we had the hotel all to ourselves. There were literally 3 other families in a 200 room hotel. I got the Onsen Hot spring all to myself. I loved the outdoor one. It was magical, nothing like soaking in a hot spring at night, relaxing and looking at the stars. Very little light pollution in the mountains so it was pretty clear.

So the main point besides off season travel is great, is to avoid peak season travel. It’s crowded but things are more convenient. It’s expensive because it’s convenient. Peak season is exactly  like the top of the hype cycle. But the best deals or alpha for investing is in the off season either right before or right after the bubble has popped. You have to do a bit more planning & homework but the results are worth it. 

The parable is to avoid the crowds. Timing and entry point price matters if you want to make money in investing. Many investors in the 2024 to 2026 vintages will be learning this the hard way, just like investors in the awful 2020-2021 vintages.