Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Sept 27th, 2026
“What we fear of doing the most is usually what we most need to do”--Ralph Waldo Emerson
Wide range of interesting takes here on venture and LP investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7dfKDmrbH4&t=2232s
2.This is an important presentation and discussion. Especially if you want to understand American geonomics for the rest of the Trump admin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Oz6IyDsSv8
3.Learning your leadership style and seizing luck. This was excellent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwY4bfZN8E8
4."The bigger problem is manufacturability. Whether it's a Tomahawk or an SM-6 or a PAC-3, these are multimillion-dollar weapon systems that take years to build at very low volumes. Right now our annual production capacity for Patriots is something like 685. Tomahawks were a few 100 per year, and we shot about 1,000 Tomahawks in the first few weeks of Epic Fury.
That's years of production, and the most recent orders that are coming in won't actually be supplied until 2030. We shot over 200 THAAD interceptors, over half of our inventory. We fired more than half of our Patriot interceptors. So when you burn through your inventory, the resupply on that inventory boxes out our international allies and partners because they get pushed to the bottom of the waiting list.
Even if we're doing resupply and we don't engage in any major conflicts over the next three years that would further burn down those very limited inventories, we've told Kuwait and Qatar and the Emirates and the Saudis: sorry, you're not getting any more Patriots. What does that mean for them? They have to make hard decisions. Do we go to China for munitions? If we do, does that mean that we need to tighten our partnership there? Does that put US interests at risk in the region? I would argue that it does. So we really need to fix the manufacturing and production side of the equation, in addition to increasing capability. Production is a huge shortfall right now."
https://arenamag.com/articles/principals-trae-stephens
5.I follow Jordi Visser as I also think he is one of the best macro strategists around. He has both the global macro background combined with deep understanding of technology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3Tc9kGXyvc&t=3760s
6."on a 20+ year time horizon, betting against the USA is a failed proposition. At this point, we’d argue that a massive crash would cause huge money printing not just from the USA but the Globe. Reason? Foreigners from around the world do everything they can to dump their money into the USA.
The main competitive edge the USA has beyond controlling the money supply is controlling the global socio economic & cultural stage. Travel abroad and you quickly learn that foreigners listen to a ton of the same songs that you do. They just don’t understand them. They can recite it and sing along with zero knowledge of what it means.
While this is glossed over it is actually pretty important. As long as people believe the highest options will come from the USA, we’ll continue to poach the greats from other countries. We’re not even relevant in Soccer, yet Lionel Messi now lives in the USA (Fort Lauderdale).
If you look at the top CEOs in the USA, a large chunk are immigrants (Musk, Huang, Pichai, Nadella, Xu, Roman… the list goes on and on). They could have created companies outside the USA but as long as they think their chances of success are higher here (they are), they will continue to come in droves. ~12% of the S&P 500 CEOs are immigrants (also kills the whole idea that it’s impossible to make it in the USA if 88% are domestic).
On that note, if the USA is turning the S&P 500 into a savings account, we’re unsure how clear the message can get. Either learn to be an owner/operator and investor or join the crabs in a bucket chat around the company water cooler."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/is-the-usa-too-big-to-fail
7."The seat-license era let CEOs ignore marginal cost for fifteen years. That holiday is over. The operators who treat the token as a managed resource, budgeted, routed, cached, and measured, will run 20 points of gross margin ahead of the ones who treat it as a utility bill that just shows up."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/the-ceos-field-guide-to-strategy
8.This is the time to be a savage. Have agency and be optimistic. Alpha is at the weird edges.
What an excellent discussion: Investing and the next trillion dollar trade. Solid discussions: AI, defense & degen economy. Geoff and Antony are smart folks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjf-GBgkTIk&t=290s
9.Lessons for America from the Athenian empire. Arrogance and hubris, torching our alliances. History does rhyme.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQBCybgIyVI&t=120s
10."When global spend goes from two to three trillion dollars, you don’t see 30% increases in the size of militaries — you see a refresh in technology, platforms, and capability. So there’s a unique moment: Israel is beginning to produce the supply of next-generation solutions just as the world’s demand for them is surging. If you understand that intersection between supply and demand, and you can build a team that sits right at it, you stand to make a real difference. It’s a generational opportunity to start a new platform.
The United States woke up to this a few years earlier and is now reaping the rewards — the likes of Anduril and Saronic are winning hundred-million- and multi-billion-dollar US government contracts and future-proofing America’s capacity to fight a future war, whether with China or otherwise. We looked at this moment — and Europe got there slightly before we did — and said: now is the time when Israel can and will produce its own Saronics, Shield AIs, Helsings, and Epiruses."
https://defensebrief.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-israeli-defense-startups
11."Does this mean Bloom Energy’s stock is a compelling short? Not necessarily, not least because shorting stocks is the stuff of people who hate money—something we have learned the hard way over the years. As a reminder, we have an operative mental model that the US government is keenly interested in seeing stocks continue their journey up and to the right, and selling short in this environment is akin to going long oil in the middle of wars: the government doesn’t want you to win, will actively work to ensure you don’t, and might even throw you in jail for trying.
Instead, we would view the construction of a portfolio of stocks in the same way bond investors do—as a process of deselection. If we were in the market for new longs, there are plenty of better options."
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/artificial-bloom
12.For anyone who is trying to figure out just what is happening in pre-seed (and seed) right now. For founders and investors trying to navigate this environment. Invaluable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waYD-9YVKEc
13."So my first 2036 call, the one I hold with most confidence: the tourist capital leaves around 2028-2030. Not because reindustrialization failed, but because it stopped photographing well. VC into manufacturing reverts to its historical trickle and the word “reindustrialization” retires the way “web3” did. What survives is three kinds of company:
-Whoever has a government check stapled to the balance sheet (the Tier 2 pattern from my last issue, where every serious rare-earth entrant carries a federal commitment)
-Whoever reached boring revenue before the window shut (parts, MRO, aftermarket, contract assembly)
-And whoever supplies the one hardware buildout that keeps its own money printer: robots.
And the “a big war will fix it” theory: I don’t buy it, especially as a plan. The next decade looks like this decade, regional conflicts where big powers test hardware through partners. Ukraine is on track to field 3 million FPV drones in 2025, and last week they confirmed testing underway on a US-Ukraine drone production venture valued at $35 to 50 billion, up to 200 Ukrainian companies, plus a track licensing Ukraine to build Patriot interceptors at home.
Look at the direction of flow: America buys battle-proofed drone designs from a partner at war, the partner gets a license to make American air defense domestically. Knowledge migrates to wherever production actually happens. The world stayed connected, logistics still work, and any 2036 scenario built on wartime autarky is fan fiction."
https://constiv.substack.com/p/what-survives-to-2036
14.Marko Papic is a top geopolitical analyst whose work I admire. He has very different takes that help you figure out the nuttiness around the world and how to trade on it.
We're all investors at the end of the day. Investors of our own time and money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGkkxbNxqOY
15.Drone Innovation in Ukraine versus Russian industrial scaling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVc-AMmhNwc
16."While it doesn’t take a lot of thinking to realize that Memory Chips sent from China to the USA are not safe, there is a large capacity there. Since it is possible to make memory chips without massive IP (China steals), in the long-term the industry just reverts back to normal profit margins.
Without getting too big into the weeds, think it is common knowledge that ASML and NVDA are basically monopolies since you can’t make high-end chips without ASML and you can’t do AI without an advanced NVDA GPU. Therefore, those two companies have more sustainable margins than the memory industry. Just because there are not a ton of major memory makers, doesn’t make it a monopoly.
Don’t get confused between extremely high demand for a few years vs. can’t do anything without it."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/memory-stocks-spacex-and-more-also
17.Michael Every is one of the best geopolitical analysts around. He has some solid frameworks to use.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYnrGt7ypoY
18.One of the weekly and top educational conversations about Silicon Valley news. 3 generations of investor takes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoRaqNWKcpM
19."For most of the twentieth century, a relatively small number of institutions controlled which stories reached a mass audience. Movie studios decided which stories became films. Newspapers decided which events mattered and how those events should be interpreted.
BUT YOU ARE THE MEDIA NOW!
Take this role seriously because the system gave a small group of cultural gatekeepers enormous power. But the internet shattered much of that control.
Today, an ordinary person can publish an essay, record a podcast, build a newsletter, create a video, write a book, or develop an audience without first receiving permission from a Hollywood studio, publishing executive, television producer, or newspaper editor.
That is one of the greatest opportunities of our time. But it also comes with a responsibility. It is not enough to complain that Hollywood tells bad stories. We have to tell better ones.
It is not enough to complain that institutions misrepresent our values. We have to communicate those values ourselves. It is not enough to complain that the stories of our families, communities, faith, and civilization are being forgotten."
https://profitandpurpose247.substack.com/p/why-stories-matter
20.Ukraine Naval Strategy: wrecking the Russian shadow fleet with sea drones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4y_bth79kI
21.I really enjoy this weekly perspective on global macro + tech trends. One of my favorite new regular shows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEnq13uJBD0
22."The amount of internal and external information now available to entrepreneurs is enormous. The ability to process, synthesize, and retrieve that information quickly is unparalleled. Entrepreneurs would do well to make their most important information not only accessible, but also intelligent and insightful."
https://davidcummings.org/2026/07/18/the-personal-ai-brain/
23."A weakening US dollar will allow countries like Brazil or Indonesia to sell their commodities at a higher price.
But that’s not going to happen any time in the immediate future. In the short term, the US dollar is acting like a wrecking ball to other economies, sending US equities higher and commodities lower.
And that’s the opportunity, even though it’ll feel painful in the short term.
Sell highly valued US equities to buy undervalued commodities. And in some cases, undervalued foreign equities.
Gold, silver, nickel, aluminum, and even oil are extremely interesting right now."
https://www.codyshirk.com/p/a-mexican-beach-a-16-year-old-warning
24.Hybrid war continues. Polish GROM are some of the best in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RBY1cY-GF8
25.A real masterclass in fundraising. Solid frameworks here for founders and investors raising money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHvY9wzhjpA&t=418s
26."At the same time, American low-cost missile manufacturers are ramping up order intake on a scale their European competitors cannot yet match. Large orders across ERAM, LCCM, FAMM, and other programs already allow American manufacturers to spread development and tooling costs over thousands of units, while high production volumes drive down unit costs through learning and economies of scale.
Lower unit costs, in turn, improve their position in future competitions, a feedback loop that late entrants may find difficult to break, similarly to how American missile manufacturers were able to outcompete European ones. In addition, confirmed demand may also disincentivize private investment in European companies, as Anduril and Castelion can raise capital against confirmed demand signals that European manufacturers currently lack.
The advantage is, of course, not absolute, and in the European market, localization and national ownership may weigh more heavily than unit price — at least for now. But in third markets, and in the race to fund follow-on development, the American head start in orders is likely to compound."
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/affordable-mass-the-low-cost-cruise
27."I believe all of this turmoil, change, and strategic upheaval in venture really comes down to one core question: In this AI era, is it really different this time? Some in the industry thought it was different in 2021, but that turned out not to be the case. Most of the core questions every early-stage firm I know is grappling with boil down to the following core beliefs:
Does entry ownership still matter, and is it worth holding the line on target ownership?
How important is entry price in the equation? To what degree does entry price matter?
Can I get into the top 15-25 companies that will become far outliers each year? If not, why am I in this business?
If I were to summarize the consensus view of the job of an early-stage venture capitalist today, it is fairly simple: do you have a model that’s going to give you a chance to win a spot on the cap table of the small number of companies that will end up driving the majority of returns per fund cycle? If the answer is no, I think you need to go back and look at your strategy, because you might not be competitive."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/its-all-pre-series-a-now
28."When you find yourself on this journey, you will find yourself in many many many stressful situations. You will have a ton of ups and downs. You will be tested. You will be drowned in work and upset. You will miss out on a lot of events for the sacrifice of a greater tomorrow.
Because I know this as fact I have amended my lifestyle to keep this in perspective in such a way that I’m rewarded for it now. Not tomorrow. Not next year. But today.
Or at least this week.
And here’s how the philosophy basically plays out.
Every Sunday I write out all my bottlenecks that I plan on defeating 1 by 1 this week.
My goal is at least 1 bottleneck a day, if not more, if time permits. And if it’s a major one then of course I work on it daily until it’s resolved.
Then what about lifestyle? What about reward? What about not being a good little rich hamster on a wheel?
Here’s the fun part.
I - a week out or sometimes even farther - set specific dates or events for myself so that that specific week has at least one event that makes this week sick."
https://www.thefinalman.com/p/lessons-on-achieving-the-perfect
29.This show is so fun. Two of the most interesting people on the planet just having a conversation on life, learnings, hobbies and cool products.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT7QpL4XRtw&t=760s
30.Another person who I would classify as one of the most interesting people in the world. Tyler Cowen has some good takes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unxcoZbnH_Q
31.A perspective from USV on AI & Agents. Rise of the Rebel Alliance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gfiIVfZAZ8
32.I think many of us take for granted all the natural gas flowing in America. This prediction is kind of terrifying but it's well thought thru. Big geopolitical implications domestically for USA and for our allies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d9tIgjf4_E
33."A terrifying game of hide-and-seek is playing out in this deadly corridor that snakes along the 1,200 km-long (750-mile) front line in Ukraine.
The war, well into its fifth year, has become the first major conflict to be dominated by unmanned aerial vehicles, with thousands of the cheap but deadly machines filling the skies.
Ukraine and invader Russia are constantly advancing the new technology, which is transforming modern warfare. Both sides have had to abandon age-old tactics of gathering troops, vehicles and artillery in a relatively compressed area along the front lines. Such visible targets are easy prey for drones.
Instead, teams as small as two to three soldiers hide in tiny dugouts hollowed under the ground, scattered across a huge kill zone extending many kilometres on either side of the line of contact between the two sides. Infantrymen often act as lookouts, avoiding direct engagement that could give away their position, instead calling in drones to do the killing, said an officer in leading Ukrainian drone brigade Madyar’s Birds, who goes by the callsign Silhouette."
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/KILL-ZONE/znpnojmknvl/
34.My favorite weekly discussion on all big news Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwGTOmdbLQs&t=643s
35.One of the must watch weekly tech shows. Good takes on AI and Stripe & PayPal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=460NqsdQm5A&t=1491s
36.A masterclass in building and scaling hard & big businesses. So many insights here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6gH_v0buUc
37."Amateurs spend months preparing for a market that doesn’t care. Architects launch raw engines, gather instant data, and command the cash flow while others are still editing their outlines. Stop planning. Deploy."
https://luxlifestylelab.substack.com/p/the-architecture-of-action
38."Ok, so am I saying early stage funds of modest size ($100m or less) should *never* follow on? NO, I’m saying you should minimize reserves so that you are not thinking about it as a second pool of dollars to only use for second checks. Instead evaluate any pro rata opportunity vs a net new investment, and assume you will not use a significant amount of your fund capital for follow-on. Get more shots on goal, so to speak, and see if you can catch more true outliers.
But HUNTER,
WHAT ABOUT DILUTION? If exits for winners are truly bigger than ever, your dilution won’t matter as much from a fund model perspective -AND- the wild growth in early stage valuations means you will be taking LESS dilution than has historically been."
39. "Many Americans still do not understand what Ukraine is. They do not understand why a Ukrainian who speaks Russian can still be a victim of Russian oppression—or why speaking Russian does not mean wanting to become Russian. Nobody assumes that Mexicans, Venezuelans, or Paraguayans want to belong to the Spanish Empire simply because they speak Spanish. People understand that language can be a legacy of imperial rule. Yet that same logic is often abandoned when Ukraine is discussed.
The war is ultimately about Ukrainian identity, culture, and the right to exist. I would encourage foreigners not to stop at battlefield headlines. Read the writers and historians explaining Ukrainian history, language, and culture. Support the organizations and media outlets doing that work. Once you understand the history, it becomes much easier to grasp why Ukrainians are so determined to escape Russian imperialism."
https://underfirenews.substack.com/p/i-had-seen-too-much-to-turn-my-back
40."The future of warfare is no secret in the Pentagon. The widespread use of relatively inexpensive Iranian Shahed drones in Ukraine and the Middle East is headline news. Meanwhile, China and Russia are adeptly fielding various higher-end, more capable systems. The United States isn’t sitting on its hands. We have several counter-UAS systems from both the traditional prime contractors and new entrants. The capabilities are a mix of kinetic interceptors and directed energy weapons.
The problem is, Private Snuffy on the ground doesn’t even know these technologies exist, let alone how to use them or how they will be used to augment battlefield tactics.
The leadership at the top of our military understands that much of the doctrine we still teach at the bottom is obsolete. Yet battalion-level and below units continue running decades-old drills and consulting outdated field manuals, which lead to dissonant experiences like the one above. Doctrine takes far too long to travel from those who write it to the soldiers on the ground who must live and die by it. That lag will cost us dearly in dollars and in lives if we don’t reform and accelerate the way we train."
https://www.firstbreakfast.com/p/drone-warfare-what-the-pentagon-knows
41.This week's global macro with Visser and Pomp. Helpful to understand what is going on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McKTuWYzXgg&t=414s
42."The market currently prices the US data center buildout on expected revenue from Western frontier labs. Call this scenario A. Reasonable assumptions, reasonable analysis, mostly what the bubble-versus-real debate is arguing about.
Scenario B is a Taiwan chip disruption of any severity over the next five years. Even at a 3% probability, the same GPUs command a scarcity premium of many multiples of their spot price. The West cannot produce equivalent volume domestically for years. Alperovitch, Recorded Future’s Insikt Group, and CSIS all argue the underlying risk is higher than 3%, and rising through the second half of this decade.
Even at 3%, the expected value of the compute stockpile is materially higher than what analysts are baking in. Move the probability to 10% and the math is not close. The overbuild stops looking like a bubble and starts looking like a call option the market gave away for free.
I laid out this argument in more detail on Marc Baumann’s 51 Insights podcast. Marc’s own summary was that “even at a 3% probability, those chips are worth gold.” That is the exact math the current bubble-versus-real debate does not include.
If you are an investor, a family office, a private equity firm, or a sovereign wealth allocator running the AI infrastructure trade, the geopolitical hedge is the piece missing from your model. It is asymmetric upside for capital that is currently priced on symmetric downside. The overbuild is a hedge. Whether it is also a bubble is almost a side question at that point."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/guest-post-the-trillion-dollar-trade