Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Oct 26th, 2025
“The question isn’t who is going to let me; it’s who is going to stop me.” — Ayn Rand
"The USA is the land of competition and money. This is why it is the “land of opportunity”. The 1980s and 1990s are long gone. Once again, do not bother with any plans/prayers that involve moving back to the past."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/health-trend-for-the-next-5-10-years
2. Lots of interesting takes on global macro. Investing globally will
become more important.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFjfQanCxp0
3. "Most significantly, after watching Ukrainians destroy Russian tanks and strategic aircraft with armed drones, Hegseth said drones should now be treated like munitions — cheap, expendable and mass produceable — and not like a new, expensive aircraft, development of which can take years longer to get through Pentagon red tape. The DoD’s new drone policy also seeks to expedite drone use by giving lower-level commanders — basically colonels in the U.S. Army, U.S. Marine Corps, and the U.S. Air Force, and captains in the U.S. Navy — authority to purchase and deploy so-called Group 1 and 2 drones, or smaller vehicles like tiny FPV (for “first person view”) quadcopters that can be used at the unit level and have been so effective on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
All of that amounts to a good start, critics say. But that is also the problem: The Defense Department is just getting started, as even Mingus has admitted. By the accounts of many experts, the U.S. military is not close to developing, much less deploying, the dizzying array of sophisticated drones mastered by the Ukrainians and Russians — including “kamikaze” drones used to destroy enemy tanks and vehicles; ground drones that can lay mines and deliver ammunition and medicine; larger drones that can ferry smaller ones behind enemy lines, among others.
Why is the U.S. military — long considered the global gold standard in defense innovation — so far behind in this new and dangerous trend? According to a former senior adviser to Hegseth, Marine Corps veteran Dan Caldwell, the main reason harks back to an age-old problem: Generals and commanders are always fighting the last war."
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/08/27/pentagon-drone-technology-deficiency-00525058
4. "If China has allegedly overbuilt, then America has under built. Whether housing, infrastructure, or business capital expenditure: development of the built environment too often feels stagnant. One big piece of evidence: investment in equipment and structures as a share of American GNP is down 3 percentage points from where it was in the 1970s.
The “engineering state” label captures something real. It almost evokes Karl Wittfogel’s “hydraulic empire.” And the term speaks not only to China’s deep history as a nation obsessed with transforming the material world, as embodied in legends such as those surrounding Yu the Engineer, but also to the realities and fixations of the current rulers: a Party-state that dreams big engineering dreams, and which sometimes turns them into social engineering nightmares."
https://www.cogitations.co/p/litigation-nation-engineering-empire
5. The edge of the internet. Crazy stuff in Crypto and tech. It's nuts out there. And Soho House.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a0r6lwxZQ0&list=PLIBc05HkMJHFpVxxZTD-_MbTAYtwAOEg_
6. "All this is to say, that rear-area security is yet another wrinkle in planning for offensive operations. Even if commanders in future wars figure out how to break through prepared defensive lines, sustaining that momentum will be a separate problem in itself.
The next major ground conflict could well see new technologies that partly offset these difficulties. Passive measures might even ease the burden on limited high-end systems—especially if militaries take seriously the task of creating fortified corridors throughout their own operational depth. But no matter what, these sorts of considerations will occupy considerable planning efforts."
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/pulsing-from-the-depths-the-problem
7. Learning from China. Yes, they are not our friends but they are incredibly innovative and fearsome competitors. We need to up our game in America and the rest of the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUJz55AsUz4
8. "In general, I would encourage people to use history as a form of leverage because — while events don’t repeat exactly — human behavior does. In the end, business is ultimately about people, right? The quality of the “alpha” in a company or corporation, its competitive edge, comes largely from the people they work with."
https://bigthink.com/business/the-david-senra-interview-use-history-as-a-form-of-leverage/
9. "What began as limited exposure to Russia’s war in Ukraine has grown into a conduit for technology transfer, operational experience, and doctrinal adaptation. The evidence now ranges from loitering munitions and mobile ATGMs to air-defense systems, electronic warfare capabilities, and ballistic missile technologies. For the Korean Peninsula, this trajectory points to the emergence of a more capable, modernized North Korean force, one no longer confined to the outdated playbooks of the mid-20th century.
Globally, the risk extends further: Pyongyang has long been a supplier to sanctioned states and non-state actors, and the spread of these tools could amplify instability well beyond Northeast Asia. While it remains uncertain how far North Korea can scale and replicate these lessons across its armed forces, given its severe financial constraints, it is clear that this experience will not be buried."
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/what-north-korea-learned-from-the
10. A very honest and direct conversation from a big endowment LP for VC funds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMuoR8hhupg
11. "People often ask me if there’s a formula for success. I always say luck plays a role, but dedication matters just as much. Especially in investing. It’s not like walking into a casino and taking blind guesses, there are simply no shortcuts. To be a good investor, you have to do your homework. You need to study the companies, dig into the details, and fully understand the businesses you’re investing in.
To outsiders like myself, sumo wrestling can sometimes look like two big guys just ramming into each other. But if you have a better understanding of the sport, you’d know the wrestlers actually spend hours preparing, observing and studying their opponents. It’s a highly technical sport that requires patiently waiting for the perfect moment to make their move.
It reminded me a lot about investing. In active management, you can’t simply follow the crowd or react to every news headline. It takes a lot of preparation and research in order to make good judgement about an investment so when the right opportunity comes, you act decisively. That’s what I believe gives active investors an edge."
https://www.markmobius.com/news-events/life-lessons-in-japan
12. "Venture is a contact sport." Lots of great nuggets in this conversation with one of my favorite people in VC. OG Tony Conrad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYcSvqM9pL8
13. A masterclass in investing. This was so good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWntNpgDCZk
14. "When competitors raise large rounds, entrepreneurs should take the time to do some soul-searching about their own level of ambition. Do you want to “go big or go home,” or are you comfortable being the number two or three player in the market? Many markets are not true winner-take-all environments. More often, they resemble oligopolies or are divided into valuable niches where multiple players can thrive.
Just because a competitor raises a massive round doesn’t mean you need to. But it is prudent to carefully weigh the pros and cons instead of reacting impulsively. There are many paths to building a successful business, and not all of them require raising huge sums of money."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/08/30/when-competitors-raise-large-rounds/
15. Random but good wilderness survival tips.
16. Appeals to my prepper heart. But this is a fascinating conversation on the life of spy's life. Last 30 min particularly was alarming but insightful.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fu6bYPTp_kE&t=5519s
17. "Constraint is usually framed as limitation, but in the last year, I’ve also come to see it as liberation. It funnels attention to the things you said you’d do. Boredom is the pop-up blocker for ambition.
And, because the city doesn’t hand you a plot, narrative matters even more. It has to be made, not found. Almost everyone I’ve met is working on something long, hard, or both. Willpower alone doesn’t last. The survival tool is story: a why strong enough to return to when funding wobbles or energy dips. You see it everywhere. Founders use story to align teams they can’t yet pay. Investors sell LPs on decade-long bets. Employees take pay cuts for equity because they buy the mission. Narrative is the currency that buys undercapitalized projects time.
San Francisco’s secret isn’t that it’s exciting. It’s that it’s boring enough for you to make something exciting."
https://forrealai.substack.com/p/sf-is-boring-thats-the-point
18. "For Taiwan, this is part of a broader effort, which has been referred to in the past as “Hellscape,” that envisions the Taiwanese military flooding the air and waters around the island with relatively uncrewed platforms in the event of a military invasion from the Chinese mainland.
Especially if it is a relatively low-cost design, Chien Feng IV, as well as other longer-range kamikaze drones, could also offer a way to extend the Hellscape plan to attacks on targets on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. As noted, Airwolf’s stated maximum range is 400 nautical miles. The Taiwan Strait, at its widest, is some 97 nautical miles across. Massed Chien Feng IV attacks would also force Chinese forces on the mainland to expend commensurate amounts of interceptors. Higher-flying jet-powered drones would, in turn, require higher-end interceptors to be employed, as well."
https://www.twz.com/air/taiwan-teams-up-with-kratos-on-jet-powered-kamikaze-drone
19. "The current vibe-coding era won’t last forever. Eventually, brilliant practitioners in each domain will distill optimal workflows from this experimentation, commercialize them, & establish new industry standards.
The companies that recognize these emerging patterns earliest & build robust, scalable versions before the market standardizes will define the next generation of software development tools.
The glee of solving problems with $20-per-month AI tools represents more than convenience; it signals a fundamental restructuring of how software gets built & who gets to build it."
https://tomtunguz.com/vibe-coding-ubiquitous/
20. "There exist a number of ways in which one can maximize their ideological influence. In the remainder of this piece I’ll specifically focus on the intellectualpathway. Other pathways include maximizing one’s disposable capital (getting rich), maximizing one’s political stature, marrying a person who has already maximized or will subsequently maximize one or more of these, and so on.
Most people whom I consider exemplar power-maxxers have either combined the intellectual and political pathways (e.g. Henry Kissinger), or the intellectual and disposable capital pathways (e.g. Peter Thiel, George Soros). The reason I chose to focus on the intellectual pathway here is that it’s the pathway that needs to be maximized in public, through domains such as this one. It’s obvious why — you can’t intellectually influence people unless they’re hearing what you have to say. Capital doesn’t work like that."
https://katechon99.substack.com/p/what-are-we-trying-to-do
21. "The U.S. military should formally embrace and invest in advanced digital gaming as a core training tool, leveraging its ability to build critical cognitive, coordination, and technical skills for modern warfare. Doing so will maintain America’s training edge against rivals who are already integrating gaming into their military preparation."
https://warontherocks.com/2025/08/military-gaming-to-stay-ahead-but-not-the-kind-you-think/
22. "From both a military and political perspective, it would make little sense for Ukraine to accept Russia’s territorial demands and voluntarily surrender the northern Donetsk region as part of a peace deal. As long as Kyiv continues to control the Donbas fortress belt, there is a good chance that the Ukrainian military can turn the entire region into a graveyard for Putin’s invading army. Meanwhile, a withdrawal would leave large parts of Ukraine dangerously undefended and dramatically undermine faith in the country’s leadership.
Even if Putin concentrates his best military units in a bid to complete the conquest of the Donbas region, he would almost certainly be forced to pay a very high price for any significant advances. Indeed, the Russian army may become bogged down for years in bitter fighting that would dwarf earlier battles of attrition and could conceivably change the entire course of the war. This is exactly why Putin is pushing for Ukraine to surrender the region without a fight, and helps explain why Ukraine is reluctant to do so."
23. "It feels like we are close to solving these world model problems and making the technology viable. Doing so will enable the next wave of applications in AI, and so, seems to me like that will be the beginning of the next wave of AI. Now that even Sam Altman is starting to say we may not be on the cusp of AGI, it feels like the current approaches are stagnating, and world models could be the breakthrough for AI 2.0."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/what-will-be-ai-20
24. "At bottom, Americans and Chinese are alike. The likeness stands out when you compare Chinese to Japanese or Koreans, and Americans to Canadians or Europeans. Both peoples are restless, eager for shortcuts, and drive much of the world’s change. Both mix crass materialism with admiration for entrepreneurs. Both tolerate tastelessness. Both love competition. Both are pragmatic—“get it done”—and often rush work. Both cultures teem with hustlers selling quick paths to health and wealth. Both admire the technological sublime—grand projects that push limits. Elites and masses in both nations share a creed of National Greatness: John Winthrop and Ronald Reagan’s “City upon a Hill” in America, and the “Central Country” inscriptions on Zhou‑dynasty bronze ritual wine bowls in China.
Both countries are tangles of imperfection, often their own worst enemies. Old labels—“socialist,” “democratic,” “neoliberal”—do not fit.
China delivers rapid, visible progress, but at a cost to rights and with risks of overreach. It goes off track with social engineering, becoming a Leninist technocracy with grand‑opera traits—practical until it turns preposterous.
America goes off track by spending too much time specifying and vindicating rights, becoming a super‑litigious veto‑ocracy. Safeguards restrain excess, but also buy stagnation and lost ambition.
China would benefit from about 40% more legal respect for rights and process. Yet China’s elite sees little appeal in any system that can elevate a Donald Trump instead of a Xi Jinping.
The U.S. once built ambitiously—the late 19th century and the post‑WWII decades. It should reclaim roughly 20% more building and engineering spirit. American failure shows even at the frontier of the global economy. Silicon Valley prizes invention, then builds oligopoly moats from network effects and legal maneuvering. China, by contrast, prizes scale and production, embracing the Andy Grove ethic.
If either Silicon Valley or the Pearl River Delta could balance engineering scale and ambition with strong legal rights and safeguards, it would be unstoppable."
https://braddelong.substack.com/p/the-sledgehammer-and-the-gavel-dan
25. "Patrick McGee's masterful Apple in China provides essential insight into how this transformation unfolded. Through meticulous reporting from factory floors and boardrooms, Patrick reveals how Apple mastered what seemed impossible: outsourcing production whilst maintaining absolute control over its value chain. The book shows how Apple kept design, knowledge, and brand—the parts that appreciate—whilst leaving factories and workers to others.
More importantly, Patrick's work illuminates why that model is now unraveling. Not because Apple failed, but because the conditions that made it possible—China's unique manufacturing ecosystem, unfettered global trade, and Apple's relentless design innovation—are disappearing simultaneously. As software becomes commoditised and hardware determines competitive advantage, understanding how China built its manufacturing dominance becomes crucial for grasping what comes next."
https://www.driftsignal.com/p/apples-dependence-on-china-is-hard
26. "In other words, it may simply be every rich country’s destiny — whether it’s ruled by lawyers or by engineers — to transition from a “just build it” engineering-type culture to a fussy rules-and-procedures culture dominated by lawyers and economists.
This shift can be managed in better and worse ways, and it’s likely that America’s litigious behavior is a highly suboptimal approach. Dan Wang is very right about the woes of our “just sue them” culture. Yes, Chinese companies aren’t profitable, but at the end of the day, China will have houses and plentiful power plants and trains, and America…will simply not."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/book-review-breakneck
27. "Sadly, however, Ukraine was deprived of the ability to strike Russia at range consistently and effectively—that is possibly until now. War tends to find a way, and while Ukraine’s partners tried to limit Ukraine’s ability to strike Russia strategically at range, the Ukrainians were determined to build up that capacity for themselves. In just the last few weeks, even before the arrival of the much discussed Flamingo FP-5 cruise missiles, the Ukrainians have stepped up their strategic air campaign in such a way that it seems that they have understood the lessons of World War II—and are trying to bring those lessons home to Russia today."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/a-strategic-air-campaign-for-ukraine-0d1
28. Doug Casey. Always fun to listen to. One of the most global and interesting individuals in the world. An investor & Renaissance Man. Bit too libertarian to me but it's a good interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OggV3UvYug
29. "There are many things that are or were unique to America that did make us great. But it’s not and if:then statement. There are equally as many things unique to America now that are making us weaker, more insecure, and destined for manipulation and domination by nations that will not give one-eighth of a sh*t about what happens to any of us.
In the same way Trump can spin all the stories together into one grand narrative of grievance, America is allowing its strengths — the things that protect all of us Americans in reality, not fairy tales — to be subsumed by its ravenous weaknesses. The surest litmus test I have of our clarity, or lack thereof, of this necessary separation and survival, remains how we imagine the task to save Ukraine, and the American toolbox we bring to bear in this task.
I don’t know why we want to keep hearing this story of our weakness being greater than our strength. It’s as much a myth as the world Putin describes as his own. There is no world where a vibrant, free America prospers after the subsumption of a vibrant, free Ukraine. None.
Anyone telling you this century is going to be easy if only we can take a thing from someone else is lying to you. Stop ooohing and aahing the flames, and put them out. Stop clapping for the show, and pick up a tool, and get to work."
https://www.greatpower.us/p/half-baked-alaska
30. WW3 is here, it's just not like what everyone thinks it looks like. BRICs vs the American-led order. The USD vs Gold/BTC & Natural Resources. A sober assessment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btGKj4Fet4k
31. This is a great thesis for understanding globalization and deglobalization. Focussing on Themes not narrative. Solid global macro discussion here on the end of American supremacy through the lens of military, economic & myth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESO9AlnV6-g&t=2s
32. I'm on Team America but it's important to understand the other side. Professor Jiang is obviously pro-China and BRICS but this is worth listening to.
#Realpolitik
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFuwNjHaYq8
33. An interesting view on China and America from someone who has lived in both places. A best selling economist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0tMBMLl32o
34. "Back in the 2000s, manga cafes were known for all night survivors who missed the last train. They offered cheap internet, comics, and a spot to crash, but the image was noisy and smoky. Today, Kaikatsu CLUB has rebranded the experience with lockable private rooms, free showers, and 24 hour service.
With hotel prices surging past 10,000 yen ($67), manga cafes look like a bargain. For around 3,000 yen ($20), visitors get a clean room, air conditioning, and access to amenities. Capsule hotels once owned this niche, but many guests now find manga cafes more comfortable and better equipped.
Kaikatsu CLUB is owned by AOKI Holdings, a company better known for business suits. As of mid 2025 it operates nearly 500 locations across Japan, giving it a near monopoly. The days when manga cafes were small independent shops are over. Today one company dominates the market."
https://www.tokyoscope.blog/p/manga-cafes-in-japan-are-becoming
35. Important discussion on consensus versus non-consensus investing for VCs.