Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Nov 2nd, 2025
"Those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything"--George Bernard Shaw
"There’s a mismatch here between two visions of the emerging economy.
So which one is real? Are we entering an AI-driven boom time like an out-of-control Monopoly game? Or will we be too broke to eat breakfast?"
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/is-the-bubble-bursting
2. Learning from China. Very interesting discussion here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze8fbNgsZ0s
3. "Civilizations, Spengler argued, are not constantly marching toward utopia. They are instead living organisms that grow, age, and die.
Spengler believed that Western culture — which he called the "Faustian" civilization — was already in its twilight. The signs were there for anyone who dared to look: declining faith, exhausted art, shallow materialism, and bloated cities. A century later, his ideas feel eerily prescient."
https://www.theculturist.io/p/does-history-repeat-itself
4. "Canada is at a crossroads. We can continue with shallow venture capital markets that leave our innovators underfunded, our technologies foreign-owned and our national security dependent on imports. Or we can deepen our domestic venture capacity, treat capital as the strategic resource it is and align our economic and security interests.
Venture capital is defence capital. It is the risk capital that fuels the companies and technologies that will shape Canada’s economic resilience and security for decades to come. We have the policy tools to mobilize this capital now. The only question is whether we will act before it is too late."
5. Idealists vs Realists in a new world of Economic Statecraft. This is a must watch for global macro strategists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GBEwilEYuw&t=903s
6. What a cutting teardown on Canada, the West and Baby Boomers. Hard not to criticize any of this though.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E83dpuyvpiM
7. What an excellent interview with a global view of investing opportunities. Lots of great insights for the independent minded investor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6d8NomiX7Q0
8. A truly excellent episode this week. Business & topics at the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwlgQMBwWl0&t=623s
9. This is gold. Some interesting takes and framework for figuring out where to live for entrepreneurs. Location really matters for health, wealth & happiness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPNAy44jic8
10. "The world, distracted by CCP grandstanding, rarely notices. But this is no accident. It is deliberate concealment: an approach that prizes readiness over spectacle, and quiet mastery over brash display. It can be wise, the ancient strategist Sun Tzu observed, to appear weak when you are strong. Japan’s restraint, often mistaken for weakness, is strategic misdirection—concealing the steel beneath the silence.
Where tyrannies roar to appear invincible, liberal democracies must endure by remembering—not only how to fight, but why they must.
Japan’s defense budget for fiscal 2024 stood at ¥7.95 trillion—nearly $54 billion—part of a sweeping five-year plan totaling ¥43 trillion under its 2022 National Security Strategy. That figure is set to reach 2 percent of GDP by 2027, marking its largest military investment since the Second World War. The message is quiet but unmistakable: Japan builds not to provoke, but to endure. It does so without fanfare, assuming unheralded leadership—guiding the region not through domination, but through cooperation and example. The CCP cannot protest Japan’s moves here too loudly; doing so would puncture its fiction that Beijing dominates Asia. The irony is plain: The more the CCP blusters, the more it obscures the steady rise of its rivals—led, increasingly, by Japan."
https://www.commentary.org/articles/mike-burke/japan-liberal-democracy-us-ally/
11. "Nevertheless, with China spending perhaps upwards of 2 per cent of GDP annually on industrial policy – a large multiple of any other OECD country – we should be under no illusion that the government will be prepared to shift towards other domestic priority needs, or succeed in all its ventures.
Indeed, the echo of Japan in and since the 1980s resonates in this regard: here was a mercantilist nation, committed to and successful in industrial policy with a considerable inventory of household or brand names, large exports and foreign reserves. In the end, though, its much envied and prominent manufacturing, trading and banking firms were unable to hold back the tide of macroeconomic troubles and imbalances that had been allowed to accumulate over many years. It’s quite possible that China is the encore, but this time also a commercial rival and a geopolitical adversary.
In the meantime, China’s mercantilism has changed from being a slow-burning fuse to an accelerant, as many nations have come under political pressure to act against Chinese exports."
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/is-chinas-mercantilism-cracking-up/
12. Lots of good solid thoughts on Global macro and where things are going in America and the present world order & finance. The 100 year Reset.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uumy5fx2Kpc
13. My favorite weekly conversation on B2B Investing and news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML1FtOy9JtM
14. "The question before us is whether America can adapt its defense innovation system to meet the pace of modern conflict—or whether we will be left behind by adversaries who move faster and integrate commercial technologies more aggressively. The answer will depend on whether the Pentagon is willing to break with tradition and build a parallel system, one designed not for incremental reform, but for speed, agility, and integration with the private sector.
The Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) was never designed for innovation. It was built to acquire large, mature, well-defined systems—aircraft carriers, fighter jets, satellites. For that purpose, it has worked tolerably well. But when applied to software, AI, robotics, or other rapidly evolving technologies, it grinds innovation to a halt.
Rather than endlessly tinkering with the FAR, the Pentagon needs a new lane: a parallel acquisition system that leverages private capital and commercial innovation at scale. Steve Blank, one of Silicon Valley’s most respected thinkers, has proposed exactly this. He envisions a new defense ecosystem where commercial companies and private investment serve as force multipliers, complementing traditional prime contractors and federally funded labs. Under this model, prime contractors would integrate advanced technologies into complex systems, while the government reserves its in-house labs for areas where commercial markets simply don’t exist—hypersonics, nuclear, energetics."
https://uncommonleadership.substack.com/p/turning-defense-reform-into-battlefield
15. Friedman knows his stuff. He is a bit too optimistic in my view but he highlights the challenges & constraints of the RICS alliance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xa1iZGnLG0
16. This is a fun conversation on the future of business. AI, Personal Brands and IRL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAPyRx1BQrI
17. EB Tucker is one of my new favorite financial influencers. Some interesting financial thoughts but also life lessons as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIbU5sUrLr4
18. "It is unavoidable that capital allocation strategies (whether VCs or LPs) are backward-looking in some ways: all investors aspire to identify the repeat patterns of success, even if they aptly recognize that strategies must evolve with the times. As discussed, however, alpha requires being right and contrarian. From our perspective, smaller funds today are mimicking brand-name funds more than ever—the dramatic increase in spin-out funds over the last 18 months is just one indicator that allocator appetite is contributing to this effect.
But it’s important to note that large platform funds are fundamentally playing a different game. The pursuit of "2% of the biggest number" is consuming venture capital, as the biggest brands in VC become asset managers. Their incentives—from LP profile to target returns—are categorically different, looking less like traditional venture capital and more like multi-product private equity. Our view is that imitating the tactics of a player in a different sport is not a strategy for success—in the case of the early-stage VC managers, it’s more likely a path to obsolescence.
It goes without saying that it becomes nearly impossible to own an island when replicating a brand-name fund’s thesis (or even strategy). Finding an island that you can own is key, as over time, a successful island becomes a durable brand. If the future of access is brand, one thing is clear to us: differentiated, defensible strategies for building mindshare with great founders at scale will define the next generation of early-stage manager success."
https://insights.euclid.vc/p/we-have-met-the-enemy-and-he-is-us
19. Incredible wisdom and life advice for young people and old.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrzGs_PCoLs
20. A good view on Greenland & its strategic importance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ6Cb9P59DQ
21. The Age of the Middle Powers, the 17 key players on the geopolitical stage right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBrbmH-FOKM
22. Know thy enemy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkgw8mvIXRI
23. Karp is one of the funniest dudes in tech right now. He is also right a lot and can back up what he says. Pay attention.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRi22OS98NY
24. "The core philosophy around The Lethal Protocol is viewing your health as something you can spend.
Everyone has an appreciation for the value of $1MM US dollars. Why? Because they imagine all of the things they can do with money. Vacations, investments, paying off debts, there is an endless list of what they can do with that capital.
You should also view health as a currency. Warren Buffet who’s worth multi-billions would give that all back to be 10 years younger, what does that tell you?
Health is the ultimate currency that 99% of you are taking for granted.
It’s time to start viewing health as the accumulation of energy capital. I’m not talking about moving to Bali to do yoga everyday to try to reverse aging & to become a monk to avoid any stress.
We are building a huge reserve of energy which can be deployed however we choose.
In business: Not having energy crashes at 2PM, not having to rely on stimulants to function. The ability to pull long work days, travel & conduct business at a high level requires energy capital & a lethal physique.
Experiences: Building a large reserve of energy capital allows you to say yes to the last minute trek in Nepal, the martial arts camp in Bankok, the Kooyong tennis social event your business associate has invited you to. Having Lethal Physical Shape prevents you from ever having to say ‘no’ again."
https://www.lethalgentleman.com/p/how-to-train-like-bruce-wayne
25. "The FP-5 Flamingo remains a promising weapon system to propel Ukraine’s missile program forward. If the manufacturer indeed manages to achieve a reliable CEP of 14 meters or less, while also being able to produce the missile in more substantial numbers, it could prove deadly to Russia’s critical infrastructure, notably its oil refining capabilities.
Still, it’s important to keep in mind that these are no longer $50,000 long-range drones being launched. The strike package used against the targeted site in Crimea likely cost up to $3 million, which makes it all the more important to ensure that future volleys count. Foreign financing for Ukrainian missile systems will also become increasingly important.
Fire Point, meanwhile, appears to be maintaining its marketing momentum and seems intent on positioning itself as Ukraine’s primary missile manufacturer. At the International Defence Industry Exhibition in Kielce, Poland, it unveiled two new ballistic missile designs, one with a range of 200 kilometers and another with a range of up to 855 kilometers, both advertised as retaining relatively high accuracy (14 and 20 meters CEP, respectively).
As such, Fire Point is now directly challenging legacy land-attack cruise missile designs such as the Long Neptune and Korshun, as well as legacy ballistic missile systems like the Hrim-2, with its disruptive new programs. Whether Fire Point can deliver on these ambitions remains to be seen."
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/flamingo-cruise-missile-sees-first
26. Probably agree with maybe 70-80% of his assessments. His take on energy is top notch. Lots of implications for geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s56vwCkrNQM
27. "I think about my sons — 15 and 18 — and the world we’re handing them. A world where human connection has been commoditized, where intimacy is artificial, where young people retreat into digital caves instead of stepping into the messy, and rewarding, complexity of real relationships. Being human is not a solo sport.
The loneliness epidemic isn’t just killing people at 100 deaths per hour. It’s killing our capacity for joy, for surprise, for the random encounters that make life worth living. Every swipe right, every OnlyFans subscription, every AI boyfriend is another step away from the fundamental truth: We not only need each other to survive, but to really live.
We can keep feeding, and ignoring, the machine that profits from our isolation, or we can remember what it means to be gloriously, beautifully human — together. The most subversive act in the 21st century may not be starting a unicorn … but showing up, approaching strangers, asking someone out, grasping for their hand. It’s not OnlyFans that will save us. It’s only us."
https://www.profgalloway.com/lonely-fans/
28. "Every frontier sector eventually finds a home base, a place where talent clusters, suppliers line the streets, and iteration loops compress. Put enough people in one place, and work accelerates. Frontier industries need frontier towns. We learned it a long time ago in manufacturing, and it’s still true now.
So if Detroit was cars, and El Segundo was aerospace, and Silicon Valley is software — where should we put Roboticsville, USA? And who will be our Ford, our Hughes, our Fairchild?"
https://www.alsoblogposts.com/p/every-industry-has-a-capital
29. "Brilliant technologies either arrive too early - solutions in search of a problem or urgent market needs go unmet because the science isn’t mature enough.
This is not a simple communication gap. It’s a systemic challenge, rooted in the very nature of deep tech - long and uncertain R&D cycles, high capital intensity, and profound technological and market uncertainty.
Navigating this foggy frontier requires more than intuition. It demands a better map.
Over the past decades, different organizations have built frameworks to bring clarity to innovation. Each step in this evolution removes a blind spot, yet none has captured the synchrony between technologies that can ship and markets that can pull."
https://droninghead.substack.com/p/deeptech-investment-and-the-right
30. An older one but it's worth watching. Some global macro trends and why 2030 will be a critical year. As many smarter people than me say, it's probably 36 months from now. So 36 months to make it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Vr5k8A8C9M
31. "Democracies can export adaptability. Authoritarians can only export rigidity.
Skeptics will ask whether bureaucracies can ever embody Boyd’s ethos, or whether concepts built for fighter pilots can really scale to societies. These are fair questions. But the contest is not about perfection. It is about orientation under pressure and adaptability at all levels.
The future will not be won by the side with the most data or the fastest AI. It will be won by the side whose people and institutions can best execute the timeless human cycle of adaptation. Winning the war within our own minds is the prerequisite for winning the wars of the future."
32. This is one of the best series on history, geography and strategy via WW1 & WW2. You will get very much smarter watching this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw
33. "These five characteristics—desire to improve, unique view on risk, chip on the shoulder, resourcefulness, and optimism—are some of my favorites when it comes to entrepreneurial success. There’s no guaranteed formula and no single path, but these traits consistently show up in entrepreneurs who make it.
If you’re thinking of becoming an entrepreneur, or considering partnering with or investing in one, keep these characteristics in mind. Evaluate them against the entrepreneurs you’ve met in the past. You’ll likely see these traits reflected in those who have succeeded."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/09/06/what-to-look-for-in-an-entrepreneur/
34. How to become a super forecaster.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JamM7u3TixU
35. These are fun videos. Inspiration or just some good ideas from a young multimillionaire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_GPbXcxfLk
36. Alex Karp is the man!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGXVOM_TKSU
37. I always learn from Niall Fergusson. Lots of interesting takes on politics, history and geopolitics.