Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Nov 23rd, 2025
“The only thing that overcomes hard luck is hard work.”– Harry Golden
A candidate for the world's most interesting man: Erik Prince.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yImmJth6vKE
2. George Friedman has been one of the keenest geopolitical observers forever. He can be a bit too optimistic from an American lens, but he has been right more than wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hya3dMD_eOE
3. Always an enlightening conversation. The OG Tai Lopez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixf-6eHJbz8
4. A discussion: Are we in Cold War 2?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhv9PhJT_QE
5. Glide bombs coming to the world. Scary stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7puZUPjOoOI
6. "Japan's ability to deliver the goods, from frigates and aircraft to Hello Kitty and Super Mario, has put Japan in the pole position in Asia as an alternative to both the US and China. This is a relief for American policy makers and a major problem for China.
The PRC prefers to paint the conflict in Asia as one between a resurgent China reasserting its rightful place and a decadent, overbearing America in decline. The centrality of Japan rests in its delicate combination of soft and hard power and in Asia's history of resisting the ascendant hegemon, whether it be Japan in the 40s, the US in the 60s or China in the 2020s. As I write this, a record 19 nations have joined the Talisman Sabre exercises in Australia. While the headlines focus on the role of America, it is Japan who has forged this alliance by mending fences with old foes and steadfastly focusing on a free and open Indo-Pacific.
For investors, very little of this "hard power" opportunity is in the price of Japanese equities when compared to peer companies in other countries who supposedly will be invited to the same party. Based on head-to-head comparisons, Japan has the most to gain and the least to lose from a successful deterrence effort: its systems are optimized for modern conflict and its exports can only go up."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/lets-talk-about-japan-hard-power
7. A grim view of the AI future. Still helpful to understand the dystopian world we are entering.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziLmtuLm-LU
8. A pretty interesting discussion by Google billionaire Eric Schmidt on the future of warfare: AI, robots & drones.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkuVqdj8O6E
9. "For businesses currently on the T3D2 plan, the fundraising market may be a bit more challenging because of the comparison to AI growth rates. Also the expectations around size at IPO have increased.
$100m in trailing revenue growing 50% used to be the target. But now the expectation is closer to $300m growing at 50%. Attaining those numbers requires sustaining high growth rates for longer."
https://tomtunguz.com/t3d2-ai-era/
10. Some crazy stories about the early days of PayPal, Clarium Capital & Palantir.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dUSYgGYT0Y
11. "What began with the abandonment of the gold standard, continued through the era of fiat currencies, and accelerated during successive financial crises, now reaches its logical conclusion: money that can be created, allocated, and controlled according to the whims of technocratic authorities.
The eurozone's structural problems, including unsustainable debt levels, political fragmentation, economic stagnation, cannot be solved through monetary gimmicks or enhanced surveillance. They require fundamental reforms to fiscal policy, regulatory frameworks, and institutional structures. CBDCs represent an attempt to avoid these necessary reforms by implementing technological solutions to political problems.
European citizens face a choice that will define the next century of economic development. Accept the digital euro and surrender financial autonomy to unelected technocrats, or demand preservation of monetary alternatives that maintain some degree of individual choice and privacy.
The stakes couldn't be higher. Once implemented, CBDCs create a one-way ratchet toward greater control. The infrastructure built today will be used tomorrow for purposes not yet imagined by today's policymakers. History demonstrates that powers granted during emergencies are rarely relinquished during periods of stability.
As Rahm Emanuel said, “Never let a serious crisis go to waste.”
https://dollarendgame.substack.com/p/the-plan-to-enslave-europe
12. An interview with a living entertainment, media and internet business legend: Barry Diller. A must watch. "You have to be stupid before you are smart."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAKINNEVs-M
13. “Ukraine needs two sorts of funding: investment capital and customer capital. It needs revenues derived from non-Ukrainian buyers because that’s what will improve the macro environment. But nothing will happen without free exports and free repatriation of capital,” Boyle said."
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60553
14. Arthur Hayes on Global Macro and the implications of the global debt doom loop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLcafgSuXew
15. This is an old one. But it's a damn good ad. Classy, stylish and smart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTUKMhw4hr4
16. Lots to think about from this conversation.
The world of tech and investing from the perch of one of the big Venture Banks dominating the VC landscape: General Catalyst.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWvYbRzC-g0
17. Jared Kushner is a frigging smart dude. A combo of global macro, PE & tech investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MOsEtyKqXw&t=4s
18. This is troubling, data points on future war. Still worth watching. Forewarned is forearmed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dh0USZT950
19. "While both paths steady compounding & hypergrowth can lead to the same destination, the latter creates more value because of the time value of money. The sooner a startup reaches $1b revenue, the more valuable it is.
Of course, a hypergrowth company with significant churn isn’t worth very much at all. The CAP theorem equivalent in business is some combination of growth, margin, & retention. Most businesses can’t optimize for all three."
https://tomtunguz.com/hypergrowth-vs-steady-compounding/
20. "To a man who has spent the past 60 years automating as much of his business as feasible—to the point where Interactive Brokers has higher profit margins (71%) than Visa, a so-called perfect business—my journey to meet him was an absurd misallocation of resources.
Peterffy is the 23rd richest person in the world. He pioneered automated trading before the millennium and built Timber Hill, once the largest options market maker on earth. He’s the reason you can trade stocks in your pajamas. His second act, Interactive Brokers, is worth over $100 billion. I was surprised he was surprised that anyone would travel to hear his story."
https://joincolossus.com/article/thomas-peterffy-market-maker/
21. "What I do know is this: if we keep doing one-off deals like MP Materials or Intel—as amazing and critical as they are—we will never mobilize capital fast enough to fund the thousands of industrial startups and small businesses we need to win the AI and energy race, preserve our way of life, and avoid a fiscal crisis.
We need system-level solutions that scale shops and startups together, not piecemeal. We need a closed-loop credit ecosystem that lends at scale and cycles revenue back toward paying down the national debt.
We need to inject trillions into rebuilding America’s industrial base—efficiently and urgently.
When the government is the buyer, loans can be simple and fully guaranteed. When the buyer is commercial, layered protections make deals bankable.
With Industrial Base Treasuries and private credit, capital can flow into the industrial base—funding innovation, expanding capacity, and offering more competitive compensation for American factory workers. This is how we start to close the loop on America’s next industrial revival."
https://adastracapital.substack.com/p/americas-financial-system-is-brokenbut
22. Another great episode this week and what's up in B2B AI & enterprise software investing. So much to learn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZ7eeLU-G-Y
23. Good short take on semiconductor landscape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWloFh_hLyA
24. This conversation is very clear headed and a good take on truce between USA & China. And what happens to Taiwan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngOfkDgLzBo&t=34s
25. Controlling the metaphorical "trade routes" in a fragmenting de-globalizing world. Solid conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWntiqnjXYc
26. This short video helps you understand how Japan, South Korea and China ended up dominating ship building.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Gk61ginOqo
27. This is a great overview on the importance of Ukrainian defense-tech for the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90p0AnTjRcs
28. "History is clear. Technological breakthroughs create short-term disruption and painful job losses but also unleash lower production costs, creative ideas, bold new businesses, and, over the long term, a net increase in employment. In the car industry, automation destroyed jobs on the factory floor. But we didn’t envision the new jobs that building heated seats and car stereos would create down the road.
In 1999 the average cost of developing and launching an e-commerce site was $1 million. Today you can set up a decent website for around $5,000. Your investment is 99.5% less, and you’re entering a market that’s more than 40 times bigger. Hollywood will follow a similar path as AI opens the door to independent filmmakers. You won’t need tens of millions of dollars and Hollywood connections to produce a movie of theatrical quality. Ben Affleck is right: AI will make it easier for outsiders with compelling scripts to produce the next Good Will Hunting.
AI has become the Ozempic of the corporate world. While GLP-1 medicines switch off the signal in your brain that you need to eat more, AI suppresses the appetite to hire more, reducing companies’ cravings for the protein of human capital. Hollywood is no different. AI will create new roles and elevate the careers of those who learn to leverage it successfully, but jobs will vanish. The collision between Hollywood and Silicon Valley signals the end of the blockbuster and the industry as we know it. Disney’s Bob Iger and Warner’s David Zaslav will be out within 12 to 24 months, as their affinity for, and relationship with, the creative community is quaint and outdated. They grew up in an era when talent held the power. Their job was to not piss off people. The Ellisons, like the honey badger, don’t give a shit.
The younger Ellison wants to bring the best of Southern and Northern California together. In this case, the “togetherness” is Northern California invading the city of Angels. Like most wars, the battle is over before it starts, based on which side has more brute force."
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-end-of-the-blockbuster/
29. “Thinking twice” becomes the permanent condition. The cost is estrangement. Our first impulses — where thought actually begins — are smothered before they can be tested. We no longer recognize them as thought at all. The mind, trained in this way, does not grow sharper but duller, endlessly rehearsing conclusions while losing touch with the raw material of thinking itself."
https://www.zinebriboua.com/p/thinking-twice
30. "For today’s defense technologists and acquisition leaders, the lesson is pointed. In times of disruption, processes and committees can become fatal luxuries. Sometimes survival depends on heresy—on giving one frenetic outsider the power to cut through the system and deliver what the moment demands.
More tactically, political leaders building their executive teams need strong, empowered lieutenants—men and women who can bring outside perspective and credibility to government institutions, but still operate with speed and precision inside the complex reality of government.
These leaders must step away from rewarding careers, and, along with their families, endure the costs of entering the political arena. Changemakers like Lord Beaverbrook must be ready to make enemies and face vicious attacks in the press. And in a hyper-political era, they must wield the press, feeding their wins into the national discourse to fuel their own political power.
Today, as in 1940, critical military production is stalling. China’s fleet of warships grows while the U.S. fleet shrinks. U.S. missile and artillery stocks are dwindling, with production rates creeping up too slowly. With such trends, People’s Liberation Army commanders may gamble that their American counterparts won’t risk a force they can’t regenerate.
Might deterrence in the Pacific be saved by a 21st century Beaverbrook?"
https://www.firstbreakfast.com/p/lord-beaverbrooks-production-magic
31. "Knudsen's core principle holds true: industry cannot build at scale without reliable, long-term, financeable demand signals. However, the financial ecosystem has undergone a fundamental change. Where Knudsen coordinated with major banks and corporate leaders, today's defense industrial base must attract capital from stock and bond markets, derivatives traders, institutional investors, private equity firms, family offices, foundations, credit funds, and venture capitalists.
This presents both challenge and opportunity. The challenge: traditional defense procurement – with annual appropriations, continuing resolutions, and termination-for-convenience clauses – doesn't align with how modern capital flows. The opportunity: America's capital markets, properly engaged, represent resources that could transform our defense industrial capacity.
The principles Knudsen championed – bankable commitments, clear demand signals, partnership between government and industry – remain our superpower and north star. But the implementation must reflect today's financial reality. When we align defense needs with how private capital actually flows, we'll build the modern Arsenal of Democracy."
https://bens.org/freedoms-forge-2-0/
32. "AI is reshaping both soft power and hard power around the globe. The United States, to its credit, has an early lead with the former. The leading LLMs are trained on Western text, global training and inference are still dominated by American companies, and we are ahead in the global race for market share of total tokens generated.
But as it stands, China is running away with the hard power part of AI – robotics. As the incredible progress in AI continues, we start seeing intelligence embedded in the physical world – culminating in generalist robots that perform a wide variety of tasks across applications, from manufacturing to services to defense. This will redefine every aspect of our society and reshape daily life. The country betting on that future is China, not the US.
In the 10 years since the CCP released its “Made in China 2025” strategy, Chinese companies have leapfrogged the rest of the world’s density of robots per capita. They passed the United States in 2021, then the famously automated economics of Japan and Germany in 2024, and will soon eclipse Singapore and South Korea, their last remaining contenders. In short order China has become the world’s central robotics power. Entirely autonomous “dark factories,” like those of smartphone and automobile manufacturer Xiaomi, operate in complete darkness with no humans present.
China has successfully executed what we once thought impossible. Only ten years ago we scoffed that “China can copy, but they can’t innovate,” which we then revised to, “They can innovate, but they can’t make the upstream high-precision tooling.” Maybe we shouldn’t have been so comfortable, given how Chinese companies had outcompeted the rest of the world in industry after industry – from solar photovoltaics, where competition outside of China has been practically decimated, to 5G, whose global deployment was a massive success for China’s national champion Huawei. The same pattern is playing out now with robotics. China has built a playbook to dominate strategic industries, and has used that playbook to become the robot superpower."
https://a16z.substack.com/p/america-cannot-lose-the-robotics
33. This is an important conversation and interview with the US Secretary of the Army. Very unapologetic and direct. I appreciated this and where the US military is going.
Shawn Ryan asks lots of hard and good questions as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TdYR9sfRIw
34. What a fascinating conversation on the future of anti-drone and anti-missile technology. Aurelius Systems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZQ0RLvcHTA
35. "For entrepreneurs pitching investors who don’t buy into the market opportunity, it can be incredibly difficult. The best approach is to find an analogous market or a complementary product and make the case that what happened “over there” is going to happen “over here.” Even if investors aren’t convinced, the one thing within your control is to provide tremendous value to your customers and grow at least as fast as the market itself so that when the opportunity arises, you’re in the best position to raise capital and scale even faster."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/09/27/when-potential-investors-dont-like-the-market/