Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads June 8th, 2025
"Chaos is the law of nature; order is the dream of man"--Henry Adams
"I was personally hands-on with a half-dozen founders in my portfolio who were fundraising in Q1 and many more through mentorship programs like Creative Destruction Lab. Almost all of these companies successfully closed their funding rounds — and they should have, because they all had strong, high-potential businesses.
But not all of them got the valuation they wanted.
The biggest difference? Whether or not the founders ran a tight fundraising process.
In my experience, there’s a direct correlation between how easy it was for a founder to raise their initial round of capital (whether it be friends-and-family, angel or Pre-Seed) and an over-confidence going into their Seed or Series A round. Founders who raised their first round quickly and with minimal effort often underestimate the effort required to raise true institutional capital."
2. I hope everyone hears about the Imaguru story in Belarus. These are good people and hope we can help them.
3. The Manufacturing renaissance in America (despite the Tariff wars).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgo0jTdN8Eg
4. "What happened in the 1970s that seemed to rob the future from the Boomer generation? Energy. With the end of cheap oil in 1973, and the failure of nuclear power to get cheaper as volumes scaled up, the dreams of the sci-fi authors of the mid-20th century failed to materialize. Those dreams had partially been based on fantasy physics (faster-than-light travel, gravity control, time travel), but partly they were based on the expectation that energy would keep getting more plentiful and engines would keep getting more powerful and compact. But in the 1970s, humanity suddenly stopped being able to harness more and more energy per person.
Limited by energy scarcity, humanity’s innovative efforts switched from atoms to bits; “
technology” in 1970-2010 was defined by computers, software, and the internet. In 2011, Paul Krugman and Tyler Cowen were writing that the appliances in their kitchen hadn’t changed since they were children.
Science fiction writers anticipated this shift quite early on. The “cyberpunk” writers of the 1980s and 1990s — William Gibson, Neal Stephenson, Masamune Shirow, Bruce Sterling, Mike Pondsmith, Kojima Hideo, Konaka Chiaki, Vernor Vinge, and many others — didn’t envision a future entirely devoid of hardware innovations, but most of what they envisioned for the 21st century centered around advances in the internet, AI, robotics, and biotech.
That was the future I grew up expecting — a neon-drenched, mostly earthbound world where humans would mingle with robots, escape into digital fantasies, and modify their bodies. Instead of bold space explorers firing ray guns at alien conquerors, the heroic figures of my fantasies were hackers and street samurai, battling the nefarious plots of shadowy corporations, insane billionaires, and dystopian surveillance states."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/welcome-to-the-future
5. This was insightful, educational and just plain fun as a conversation on the state of VC and startups. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ncnpYtJCNQ&t=391s
6. Winning the war for the future. Wide ranging and interesting conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JMgPTMM2Gzs&t=1850s
7. The what's up in Silicon Valley this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkEI3csOHGQ
8. "Eleven months into the pandemic, Warren Buffett wrote in his annual shareholder letter, “Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.” This statement was based on a set of assumptions that our checks and balances protected the U.S. engines of growth (risk aggressiveness, rule of law, IP, university research, attracting premier human capital). Over the past 100 days it appears we’ve taken these things for granted, and I now believe it makes sense to bet on other regions.
Over the long run, I’m bullish on America, as there’s no better platform for unleashing human potential. The question isn’t whether to bet against America, however, but at what valuation? BTW, if a human was engineered to be the polar opposite of Warren Buffett, they’d look strikingly similar to Peter Navarro.
The Great Rotation isn’t as much a bet against U.S. equities, but simply the recognition that U.S. equities are overvalued relative to those of Europe and China.
As Brand America shifts from prosperity and rights to oligarchy and corruption, I distract myself with a great American pastime: wondering how I make money here. The greatest own-goal since Brexit/Iraq/Vietnam is underway, and, as in any disruption, there is an explosion in Alpha. It’s fun and (again) helps distract me from watching the pillars that provided me with a life my immigrant parents couldn’t imagine crumble. It helps. Sort of."
https://www.profgalloway.com/the-great-rotation
9. This was a crazy yet also fun conversation. Net net: drones on the battlefield are scary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRe_8k9Lah8
10. This should keep most Americans up at night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtLsyH-2xg0
11. This is a must watch for VCs and LPs. Definitely a master class in how venture capital works and what's happening now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VCSi7F1j0o
12. Actually this really makes sense. Buying a farm as a city entrepreneur.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x54ojJ9ttxI
13. As a history guy, this was a great run down on the growth of Silicon Valley, changes in Venture capital and A16Z themselves. The rise of a monster sized VC & the insights they had in building the firm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpBDB2NjaWY
14. "Sales has always been a critical role for entrepreneurs. Nothing happens until someone, somewhere, is sold. However, we’ve all encountered a founder who failed to convince us of a product’s value or worth. They couldn’t transfer their belief.
As an entrepreneur, I recommend reframing the concept of selling as transferring belief in your solution and vision. Belief comes from a deeper, more meaningful place, carrying greater conviction. A sale can feel superficial or transactional. Moving forward, focus on transferring belief rather than just closing a deal."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/05/03/the-power-of-transferring-belief/
15. Your regular tinfoil hat Alt-geopolitics review. Don't agree with most of this but it's important to listen to non mainstream narratives.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcPuq3iiyiM
16. This is depressing but facts are facts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW6k9z8OCEQ&t=3s
17. "This gets to the part that really interested me: how financial and technological leverage determine which wars break out in the coming decades. In a multipolar world, wars occur at the seams between larger blocs. Yet so far in the 21st century, it is comparatively rare that the two sides in a war are supported by opposing geopolitical blocs—wars such as Ukraine, and to a lesser extent Syria, are the exception, not the rule. More common are wars like Libya or Nagorno-Karabakh, which did not directly touch on core US interests and where both sides are friendly to America; or Iraq, where a US-aligned coalition attacked a diplomatically-isolated country.
Even if the world remains fundamentally unipolar, then, supply-chain diplomacy may create smaller de facto blocs. Access to weaponry remains one of the fundamental prerequisites for a state’s war-making capability, and increasingly complex weapons supply chains will continue to stretch across multiple countries. It is obvious how this creates potential chokepoints for the end user; less obvious is how those chokepoints incentivize broad alignments—such as Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Israel in the Nagorno-Karabakh War—that have both the industrial capacity to fight a war and the collective diplomatic clout to prevent outside interference. And, given the outsized advantage that a secure supply of outside weaponry can generate, a world with more chokepoints may paradoxically incentivize more wars."
https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/book-discussion-on-chokepoints-american
18. Lessons from history from Sarah Paine, one of the best historians around. Lots of implications for geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcVSgYz5SJ8
19. "Unfortunately, the US has focused its global efforts on actively managing, militarily and through economic sanctions, its version of the ‘global order.’ It has been at the expense of growing its trade relationships. This global order is falling apart as US interests diverge from the standards it developed during the Cold War, leading to expensive military adventures and dismantling the international organizations it painstakingly built to manage this sprawling network.
The other nations that are involved in this multipolar conflict;
All are self-interested. Since this war isn’t a systemic conflict primarily focused on network influence, coercion of these nations will be resisted.
China’s focus on ‘trading with all’ in contrast to America’s ‘we are in charge’ has levelled the playing field regarding influence.
Some, like the EU, see themselves as contestants on par with the US and China despite their dependence on US security and Chinese-manufactured goods."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/framing-a-conflict-with-china
20. I like Mike Thurston, creator extraordinaire. He discusses living in Dubai, it's NOT my favorite place but lots of people seem to like it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftv9Td2TSKA
21. "The U.S. isn’t just helping Ukraine. It’s creating a blueprint.
I would not be surprised if every country that benefits from the US military, especially resource-rich nations, will see a version of this deal coming their way.
Aid, in exchange for access. Weapons, in exchange for minerals.
Let’s not pretend. The United States has the biggest military and economy in the world. But real power—the kind that lasts—comes from controlling resources.
Right now, China holds a very strong hand. With 90% of the global rare earth supply, they have leverage over the entire world. If the U.S. wants to break that grip, it needs alternative sources.
That means locking down friendly governments with untapped mineral wealth, like Ukraine.
Because under the surface, it’s never been about politics or speeches. It’s never really been about democracy or peace.
It’s always been about control.
Resources are the game board. Everything else is just the packaging."
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/ill-give-you-the-sticks-you-give
22. "The irony of it all is that Japanese entertainment represents one of the few things a fractured America can agree on. “The primary uniting force in this country is anime,” posted the pop star Grimes, Elon Musk’s ex, in February. “It's the only media through line that I can reliably observe regardless of political alignment.”
In other words, Japanese fantasies are helping to hold American society together at the moment. Those fantasies naturally encode different values, different ways of looking at the world. They’re much-needed escapes, but also quiet beacons for diverse ways of thinking. Their continued popularity amidst the chaos of it all gives me hope that years from now, when America gets through this crazy time, we’ll be talking less about the manosphere that divided us than the Japanosphere that united us."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/boys-vs-girls-japan-vs-america
23. "By limiting cash, government significantly increase the control they can exert on people by forcing us to live within the digital ecosystem of banks they control. And by being forced to transact in this system only, governments can also wield the power to cut us off from our only way to exchanging money in the modern world.
It’s a power they are increasingly using to de-bank people who are critical of our rulers.
But without cash or when its use is restricted like what’s happening now in Europe, removing someone from the banking system or freezing their assets in this manner would be simply devastating.
In other words, it’s the perfect threat to ensure we comply. It’s a device of ultimate control. Because if we’re forced to live in a society where our use of cash is trampled upon, the government controls our very ability to survive in the modern world."
https://anticitizen.com/p/are-you-paying-attention
24. "In the end, Europe’s key problem in rearming is that, while its demographic, economic, and industrial outlook is clearly better than Russia’s over the medium to long term, the short-term prospects currently favor Russia. And if Europe fails to act, it is the short term that may ultimately matter."
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/forward-presence-or-forward-defense
25. "As with many early stage tech bets, perhaps we are wrong. But what if we are right? What if, 6 months after its invention, everyone everywhere has access to superintelligence and the ASI itself is not an advantage? Where do you want to be invested, and what assets to do you want to have?
That is the main question we have been asking ourselves."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/our-most-controversial-thesis-open
26. "McCarthy’s partnership with Sheridan has made Paramount+ a real competitor to streaming services from larger companies such as Amazon, Apple, Disney and Comcast—of course, it doesn’t hurt that the service carries CBS’s livestream of the NFL. Paramount+ has been the fastest-growing streamer in the US for the past couple of years, and over the last six months it’s had more top 10 streaming shows than any service but Netflix and Amazon. (Sheridan is responsible for them all.) Which is why it’s a weird moment for McCarthy’s time at Paramount to possibly be coming to an end. Barring a Trumpian twist, Ellison will take control of Paramount before the end of the year. While he plans to keep McCarthy’s co-CEO and friend, George Cheeks, McCarthy and fellow co-CEO Brian Robbins are expected to depart.
Sheridan, who says McCarthy’s handling of the franchise was “extremely shrewd,” tells Bloomberg Businessweek, “I sure hope that if this merger takes place, they have the foresight to keep him. I don’t know of another executive that I could do this with.”
McCarthy, though, says he hasn’t given his future much thought. “I’m tired of reading about us,” he says, referring to 18 months of merger speculation. Later, he adds, “Weirdly, I’m the most comfortable with uncertainty.”
McCarthy is an unlikely architect of one of the biggest franchises in Hollywood."
https://archive.ph/2dfza#selection-1605.0-1643.80
27. So much to love about Japan. I'm doing the Nakasendo hike either later this year or in spring 2026. Business and work is great but sometimes you need to get out to nature to reset.
https://www.afar.com/magazine/visit-japans-post-towns-on-the-nakasendo-trail
28. Learning from Sequoia Capital. 50 years of success.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oYXDK9xhb4&t=121s
29. Geographic Alpha.
"And while we have come down from the 2021 ZIRP infused madness, to today’s more sober reality, our focus remains the same. We back simple businesses, offering products real customers value and pay for, and who do not blitzscale. Yes, “camel startups.”
https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/introducing-fluent-ventures-and-geographic
30. "Mr. Buffett's parting gift to a conflicted and over-extended investment industry could be the gift of simplicity. As we enter what my friend Grant Willams calls the 100-year pivot, perhaps we might consider returning to the plain-old investing that Mr. Buffett has practiced for sixty years.
Perhaps the image of a solitary Warren Buffett, turning pages in a book of thousands of public equities to find a few qualifying investments, will remind us that the key attributes of successful investing are patience, wisdom and ethics, not the size of your team or your access to influential members of the Chinese Communist Party.
A return to plain-old investing alongside partnership with our closest ally could cure what ails many of our most elite institutions. What a boon this would be from a great American."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/warren-buffett-and-japan-turning
31. Not a fan of this guy Cyrus who is CCP shill but he is definitely spot on re: what a mess this Tariff war has caused in US & around the world. The trust and brand of America has been severely tarnished.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxOBXW1ghqI
32. "Between 1927 and 1938 over one-hundred German military officers assisted the Chinese Kuomintang under five different directors. The last of these, Alexander von Falkenhausen, had trained alongside Kurt as a cadet and became his supporter.
Their mission was to professionalize the Chinese military, establishing military schools modeled after the Kriegsakademie, and Kurt, an expert in military engineering and munitions, was assigned to Nanking after arriving in Shanghai with his family.
Kurt’s plan, if you can call it that, wasn’t unique. Some of the other officers sent to China were what the Germans classified as "Mischlinge"—individuals of mixed Jewish heritage—making the mission an escape route for Jewish military members fleeing an increasingly Nazified Germany."
https://walkingtheworld.substack.com/p/a-german-officer-and-jew-in-1930s
33. "AI won’t transform defense unless we bridge the gap between capability and application. These Seven Patterns offer a blueprint—for commanders, acquisition leads, and technologists—to map real operational needs to proven AI strategies."
https://buildingourfuture.substack.com/p/the-dod-doesnt-know-how-to-apply
34. Pretty instructive discussion on what is going on in a hyper competitive VC market and how to adopt as a VC.