Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 16th, 2026
“Nobody’s a natural. You work hard to get good and then work to get better. It’s hard to stay on top.”--Paul Coffey
1. "Airpower is not obsolete yet. Success in war still depends on layered defenses and systems that are capable of operating within each of the layers. In judging the future of drones versus legacy airpower, however, the question is not one of pure capabilities, since airpower will remain superior in certain operational and strategic missions. Rather, the issue is one of relative cost.
While a Patriot missile can shoot down a Shahed drone, the Patriot costs north of $4 million, while the Shahed is produced for less than $40,000, and in much larger quantities. In the future, countries like Ukraine will be able to unleash swarms of low-cost drones, controlled autonomously by AI systems. Operation Epic Fury in the Middle East, meanwhile, has demonstrated that the sophisticated air defenses provided to America’s friends in the Gulf have been unable to prevent serious damage to their facilities from Iran’s drones and missiles. This balance of capabilities will persist until someone comes up with a cheap and effective anti-drone system. Many countries and companies are working on that today, but we are not there yet."
https://www.persuasion.community/p/were-in-the-midst-of-a-warfare-revolution
2."America has the most dynamic, innovative, and resilient economy in human history. It has outgrown everyone. It keeps doing it. The people who have been betting against it in markets, in policy, in prestige magazine essays have been wrong consistently for 250 years. Permabears recognize no such track record. They just invent new words for the same bet.
As always: stay curious, ignore the doom merchants who profit from your misery, and remember that things can be imperfect and still be extraordinary."
https://www.hottakes.space/p/the-atlantic-is-just-left-wing-zerohedge
3.I was pretty impressed by this discussion. The Cerebras CEO is brilliant. Timely conversation as well as on the importance of AI infrastructure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EOwSXE3Xws&t=132s
4.A great interview with Mark Rowan of Apollo, a trillion dollar financial giant. Learned a bunch here re: culture and building a great firm & positioning to help American reindustrialization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYK_MmZW9XI&t=1356
5."The ultimate status symbol is a brand that operates completely in isolation, ignoring industry collaborations, joint ventures, and co-branded noise. It signals that the ecosystem is self-sustaining and demands absolute compliance from anyone who wants to interface with it. While others are busy "networking at panels," the Sovereign is Enforcing Monopoly.
Two weak pillars do not make a strong roof; they just create a larger collapse. Stop looking for partners to save you. Harden your infrastructure, buy your tools, and stand alone as a monolith." https://luxlifestylelab.substack.com/p/the-partnership-parasite
6.The man and the investing legend. Patrick does an amazing interview with Dan Loeb. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhTi_8QwXjg&t=2086s
7."Our willingness and capacity to deliver violence against our enemies anywhere in the world is a significant asset, but American magnanimity is what makes the country unique among history’s greatest powers. During World War II, the U.S. sustained 400,000 dead and another 670,000 wounded. In the immediate aftermath of the war, the country provided emergency aid to its former enemies in Austria, Germany, and Japan.
Then, in 1948, Congress passed legislation to fund the Marshall Plan — a $13.3 billion aid package ($180 billion adjusted for inflation) to rebuild 17 European nations, including West Germany. Separate from the Marshall Plan, the U.S. spent an estimated $2 billion ($25 billion adjusted for inflation) between 1946 and 1951 to rebuild Japan. We offered similar support to the Soviet Union and Eastern bloc, but were rebuffed. Regardless, America wrote checks when other victors would’ve demanded reparations.
In hindsight, it’s easy to discount U.S. magnanimity as Cold War pragmatism, but that misses the contribution of the American spirit and our capacity to forgive. Had American voters been consumed by hatred and xenophobia — understandable sentiments after years of war and sacrifice — the isolationism of the pre-war years might’ve returned. Instead, seven months after signing the Marshall Plan into law, Truman won reelection, suggesting that a significant number of American voters found space in their hearts and wallets for people who had been their enemies just three years prior.
That selflessness helped install a global operating system financed by American capital, secured by the U.S. military, and held together by American generosity and kindness. Eight decades later, one of our most underrated assets remains our talent for turning enemies into allies. Similar to many relationships and brand equity, the current administration has taken a blow-torch of performative masculinity and stupidity to these assets." https://www.profgmedia.com/p/magnanimity
8."But the reality is that any new technology deployment cycle will always oscillate between the euphoria that drives massive amounts of capital behind it and the disappointment when it fails to achieve the massive expectations behind it.
The remedy, however, is not to ban bubbles. In fact, there’s good evidence that bubbles are a feature of the innovation economy.”
https://www.alsoblogposts.com/p/why-bubbles-are-all-that-bad
9.One of my favorite weekly discussions on tech business news. You will also learn new things. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhZsQb3YvDg
10.My other top discussion on Silicon Valley news. It's the cooler "All in Podcast"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyC7N42o36s
11.I believe that Olympic results require Olympic level effort.
However, Nico and Corgi Insurance seem like an overreaction to the laziness that overtook Silicon Valley in the late 2010s but not sure how this work pace is sustainable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgkXOE-V-fc
12.This was important to get a view into the future of war. In this case in Africa. Good to see Vice and Shane Smith back at gonzo frontline reporting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B66Zl-Zd2DI
13.One of the OGs of El Segundo scene. Great convo on the defense-tech landscape. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v34dmEDp5Nk&t=162s
14."The central hypothesis is that between roughly 1750 and 1800 France developed a distinctive culture of precision centered on military engineering, navigation, metrology, and scientific instrumentation. This culture did not itself create industrial capitalism. Instead, it created the conceptual and technical preconditions for industrial capitalism. The United States later inherited portions of this French precision culture and transformed them into a system of scalable industrial production."
https://contraptions.venkateshrao.com/p/from-cannons-to-chronometers-to-factories
15."No two days are ever alike in venture capital (VC), and no two venture capitalists spend their time in the same way. Each successful VC has their own unique strategy to see, pick, win, and support the best early stage technology companies. VC feedback cycles are long – it can take 5-10 years to know if an early stage investment is successful. As such, I’m always trying to learn how best to spend my time to maximize my chances of seeing, picking, winning, and supporting generational technology companies building in national security."
https://maggiegray.us/p/how-i-spend-my-time-as-a-natsec-venture
16.Trae is one of the nice guys in Silicon Valley, top founder and investor. Every founder should listen to this interview. How to think about fundraising and stack wins in the biz. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQ3HLcqciA0&t=67s
17.Stay calm, stay positive & never give up. Focus on investing on the right neighborhoods (in this case real estate but works for all kind of assets). Enjoying these vignette interviews.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPjQe_n2JKI
18."The central paradox of our age is now impossible to ignore.
The global transition to electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and advanced defence technologies was intended to free humanity from dependence on fossil fuels.
Yet the chemical reagents that make this transition possible are not new green inventions; they are direct by-products of the fossil-fuel economy itself. And today these same reagents have become the arena for an unforgiving contest between two of civilisation’s most basic imperatives: feeding eight billion people and powering the electrified world.
The molecule at the heart of the conflict is sulphuric acid. It is the single most important chemical input for almost every major hydrometallurgical process in modern mining. It leaches copper from oxide ores in Chile and Africa, dissolves nickel and cobalt from laterite deposits in Indonesia, extracts uranium in Kazakhstan, and separates rare-earth elements.
At the same time, sulphuric acid is the primary feedstock used to convert phosphate rock into phosphate fertilisers, the nutrients that sustain global agriculture. More than half of all sulphuric acid produced on Earth (55–60 %) is consumed by the fertiliser industry. Mining, even at the peak intensity required by the energy transition, accounts for only a fraction of total demand.
This creates a direct, molecule-for-molecule competition. Every extra tonne of copper cathode, nickel mixed hydroxide precipitate, or uranium yellowcake produced through acid-intensive methods consumes acid that could otherwise have been used to make fertiliser.
The dual shocks of 2026, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to elemental sulphur shipments and China’s comprehensive ban on sulphuric acid exports have turned this latent competition into an immediate, zero-sum geopolitical triage.
Governments facing hungry populations have already begun choosing food security over metal security. To make it even more complicated, governments may have to choose between food and defence. Weapons and green energy manufacturers use the same reagents as herbicides, fertilisers and pesticide manufacturers.
Export controls in Zambia, domestic redirection of acid in Indonesia, and internal prioritisation orders in Chile are no longer exceptions; they are the new operating reality. When fertiliser prices surge 40–70 %, and crop-yield forecasts fall, political leaders make the same ancient choice: they feed their people first.
This is the deeper tragedy of our moment. In our urgent drive to decarbonise and escape fossil fuels, we have deepened our dependence on the chemical supply chains the fossil economy created, supply chains that great-power competition can now weaponise at will."
https://ctindale.substack.com/p/the-global-reagent-squeeze-supply
19."Today the Big Four collect more than $300 billion in combined revenue for delivering a service built for a world that no longer exists. Sampling made sense in 1850, when checking every transaction was impossible. In 2026, a machine can examine every record, every transaction, multiple times a year. Sampling is now indefensible. You need a machine to check the machine.
To the builders reading this: if you are building a vertical AI agent that replaces a partnership-bound professional services category, in any geography, we want to talk. Legal has Crosby. Audit has Oath. Healthcare, tax, regulatory compliance, asset management operations: every one of these categories has the same structural opportunity." https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/introducing-oath-our-latest-fluent
20.Mindblowing interview here. Quant hedgefunder turned VC. This was worth listening to. Career alpha. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRLZ-XwyPyo
21.Didn't know much about Brookfield until this interview. One of the biggest platforms of alternative assets. Canadian too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSwHXjH8Og4
22.Base Power, probably another one of the most important companies in America. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ph2d-AsHdKE
23.So many interesting ideas here. Joe is always on the cutting edge of investing and operating. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hBncWJnVNE
24.The top 1% of outcomes now in Venture is $30B usd. Crazy. A conversation between a top LP and Growth stage VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiM9mZCmVPY
25. An optimistic take on AI here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O70ZAPnEM7w
26.This was such a great overview on the implications of the SpaceX IPO & defense tech and more patriotism in corporate America. Reindustrialization is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG4jGwnxDhw&t=716s
27."The ultimate signal of power during a downturn is silence. While the “new money” is loud about their losses or their small wins, the elite are quietly moving their pieces. They don’t announce their acquisitions. They don’t gloat on X. They simply wait for the dust to settle to reveal they now own the entire sector. Stop praying for stability. Stability is where you get stuck. Pray for the storm, and make sure you have the boat to sail it." https://luxlifestylelab.substack.com/p/the-chaos-premium
28."Luxury isn’t about noise. It’s about restraint. In business, in art, in life subtraction is the new sophistication.
When you refine your systems, your words, and even your possessions, what remains is pure, powerful, and premium. True elegance lies not in having more, but in needing less."
https://luxlifestylelab.substack.com/p/the-luxury-of-simplicity-why-less
29.A grim but enlightening conversation on the breakdown of the global order, end of globalization and implications for investors. Invest in physical & industrial assets is what I get.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaqjVxGEhKg
30.Crash course on wealth management with the CIO of A16Z Perennial, A16Z's multifamily office. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiu81s0iyj8
31.Part 2 with the CIO of A16Z Perennial (Multifamily office). Lots of details on how and why the private secondaries/ SPV market is rife with fraud. Some good basic tax set up recommendations for Americans: QSBS is your friend. Net net: do your homework.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_Ia9xKL0vI
32."Open models still represent a fraction of overall inference, but the thriving competition, increasing usage, & surge of experimentation suggest developers are increasingly willing to route production traffic to them." https://tomtunguz.com/the-thriving-ecosystem-of-open-models/
33."The petrodollar is not vanishing; it’s adapting to a world that is quietly building alternatives and thus reducing the dollar’s power over time. What’s likely to follow is an incremental, multifaceted shift; a pragmatic response to a weakening dollar rather than a dramatic overthrow.
In this environment, holding tangible assets, especially gold, makes eminent sense. I’ve been accumulating physical gold since 2001, recognizing the long-term pressures on debt-heavy fiat systems. Central banks have come to share this view, and they're increasingly useing gold to navigate the changes ahead.
Investors would be wise to follow their lead. History suggests these transitions reward patience. Gold will continue to rise as it gradually becomes an indispensable part of the new monetary system." https://frankgiustra.com/posts/what-comes-after-the-u.s-dollar-system/
34."So what cracks it? Not the technology, the financing. I’m not anti-AI; I’m against the speculative capital structure stacked on top of it. Watch the canary: the first undersubscribed round on the subsidy side. When the subsidy thins, compute has to fight the economics of the labor it replaces on honest terms, and the stack starts grinding toward marginal cost the way wine does.
It rolls downhill, layer by layer. Thinner subsidy means weaker projected demand for compute; weaker demand competes the margin out of the data centers; thinner data-center margins pull the bid out from under the chips; and a softer bid for chips reaches all the way back to the fabs, where the underwriting was written on straight-line growth and fat margins that no longer clear. This competition flips the incentive from scale to efficiency, which strands the least efficient chips (current generation), because they cost too much to run. Each layer reprices from a venture multiple to a project-finance one. Utilities, not unicorns.
The obvious objection is Jevons: make compute cheaper and you simply use more of it, keeping power draw and capex high. I think that’s right, and it’s exactly why I expect inflation rather than collapse. Cheaper, more efficient compute doesn’t kill demand; it lets AI percolate into the processes when it’s actually economic. Volume keeps climbing while margin per unit caves in. That’s the whole shape of the thing: the technology wins, the pool of activity grows, and the people who paid venture prices for utility cash flows are left holding the angel’s share, the value that evaporated from the barrel everyone assumed could only appreciate." https://conduitofvalue.substack.com/p/what-a-napa-wine-cellar-taught-me
35."Depending on where you are in self assessment, you might feel overwhelmed. Most people who read us are beyond that and simply on the paid side going through various new markets and testing demand.
If you’re new then you should do a bottoms up approach. Look at the foundational skills/tools needed in 2026 and beyond.
Sales: If you don’t have any knack for what your skillset is? Start learning sales. This can be in person sales or it could be copywriting. Really doesn’t matter. You will need to have this skill in every aspect of life. Want more dating options? You’re selling yourself. Found your niche skills but need to impress the interviewer? See selling yourself. Found you’re terrible with people but can find trending e-com ideas in seconds? Yep you’ll need to make high quality ads/copywriting skills.
The message is that you choose this as a base layer because it will be useful to you regardless of the path.
Data Literacy: In the end, people are going to choose what they want to buy/sell. This means you’re going to take all those new fancy AI tools and figure out the intention behind the data. You should avoid the trap of saying “oh women like this new lipstick brand”. Instead, you will have to go through all the data related to the new brand.
You need to solve for: 1) what exact age band/ethnicity/location etc. 2) what exact price point, 3) what search filter is causing it and 4) if it is repeatable and if there another similar hole in the market
Similar to sales, data literacy is going to be extremely valuable. Most will take a bunch of information from AI and then make the AI solve for what is important. This is simply not good enough. AI is only at average intelligence. While it can organize the data quite well, the judgement layer leaves much to be desired (to say the least)
How fast can you spot a new market trend? Pick a few, write them down, come back in 6 months… were you right? This doesn’t even cost money if you’re extremely risk averse.
Creating a New Workflow: If you go through the second process this will naturally happen. You’'ll find trends or patterns that are obvious to you but not obvious to 99.9% of people. This needs to be automated with AI/software into something only you look at. In an ideal world, the workflow helps you research any topic you like in half the time.
What Do Strangers Say: Not your mom. Not your best friend. Total strangers. If complete strangers are saying you’re good at something, that’s a hint. Start writing them down and take it seriously.
People are extremely critical. They can’t solve their own lives but they can certainly tell you what to do after your meaningless 1 hour interaction. If strangers are telling you that you’re good at something, this is a sign of being in the top 10% at minimum (already)."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/you-run-out-of-doors-how-much-does
36."Travel is not just about leisure. It’s one of the finest forms of education available to us. It broadens the mind, deepens our character, builds gratitude, and teaches lessons that can’t be learned from books alone. Those who travel often return home wiser than when they departed."
https://thewaysofagentleman.substack.com/p/why-travel-matters-7-life-changing