Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 27th, 2025
"And in the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years." —Abraham Lincoln
This is such a fun & wide discussion with marketing and ads genius Rory Sutherland.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaYTvwe0Wo0
2. "Microsoft’s Security Business generates $20b per year in revenue, so the market is large. A similarly sized business for Google, which trades at about 6x forward would create $120b in market cap.
According to press, Wiz is between $500-1b in ARR. Assume revenue is 2/3 of ARR & it’s growing about 70%, which would imply about $850m in forward revenues.
A premium 30x forward revenue multiple would suggest an acquisition price of about $25.5b.1 Google is paying a 25% premium for an extremely fast growing business in a core strategic cloud segment."
https://tomtunguz.com/wiz-acquisition/
3. Important discussion: how are the big countries repositioning in the new era.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtxH5-jI5dQ
4. "Awareness of technical trade winds. This is a new one for me, but I think the fact that we are now in the early innings of the AI era demands it. Just as with previous seismic shifts (client-server, the internet era, the SaaS era, the cloud-native era), it’s absolutely essential that founders have a thesis on how the prevailing technical trade winds will impact them.
“Not having a thesis on AI” in 2025 is as insane as “not having a thesis on the internet” in 2005.
Even more so — customers appear to be demanding this in an unprecedented way. Founders who are not deep in the details, leveraging all the modern tools, building with a modern stack, and aware of the technical zeitgeist will find themselves adrift."
https://medium.com/angularventures/seven-signals-ce8454b23661
5. Incredible lecture and then Q&A. To understand why Japan lost War War 2. Lots of interesting cultural insights too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Znk5QINe01A
6. Equal Ventures is one of the few firms that are thinking about venture in a differentiated approach. This was an instructive conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGqJCGEL_Es
7. "Actually the risks therein are not just moral but business related. In deciding to go back to business as usual with Russia these Western investors will have to make a call as to whether the direction of travel in terms of Russia - Western relations are improving, or not. If they decide to invest but we see an unravelling of the Trump peace effort, are they then risking again a situation where their assets in Russia will be stranded and subject to freezes and confiscation?
Are these Western investors good at predicting the state of geopolitical relations and risks? I would argue not given the number of Western businesses who continued investing in Russia right up to full scale invasion. Even more remarkable therein is that many of these same investors remained invested or continued to invest in Russia through 2021 and early 2022 when their own governments were warning of an imminent invasion and the threat of aggressive sanctions being rolled out.
Why would these same investors be better now at qualifying the risks of investing in Russia when frankly they completely cocked up with their decision in 2021-2022, and indeed long before then? Imagine the egg (blood actually) on their faces if they rush to put money back to work in Russia, against a long track record of bad behaviour by Russia, and end up on the wrong side of the trade again. Titans of finance and industry - not."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-blood-money
8. This is a super fun AMA episode. Good fun business and creator stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VeoQ06FEkSc&list=PLIBc05HkMJHFpVxxZTD-_MbTAYtwAOEg_
9. This video explains the reason for the bizarre support of the MAGA wing for Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRyXhfu_ZUE
10. Not a fan of JD Vance (who is geopolitical naif) but I can get behind what he says here for America.
"So, deindustrialization poses risks both to our national security and our workforce. It’s important because it affects both. And the net result is dispossession, for many in this country, of any part of the productive process. And when our factories disappear and the jobs in those factories go overseas, American workers are faced not only with financial insecurity, they’re also faced with a profound loss of personal and communal identity.
And that’s what I really want to talk about today: why innovation is key to winning the worldwide manufacturing competition, to giving our workers a fair deal, and to reclaiming our heritage via America’s great industrial comeback. And I believe that’s what we’re on the cusp of, a great American industrial comeback. Because innovation is what increases wages. It’s what protects our homeland. It’s what saves troops’ lives on the battlefield."
https://commonplace.org/2025/03/20/our-great-american-industrial-comeback/
11. Really important interview and discussion on AI from one of the investing and operating maestros of Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBxCrH_DCDA
12. Incredible and timely discussion this week. SO much good stuff.
"NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymEtsnDif5M
13. Josh Wolfe at the Upfront Summit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ATz-qVlmaj8
14. Very interesting & timely company. Albedo satellites.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vX_VhcmAWGU
15. Solid discussion from OG of Seed Investing. Chad Byers of Susa Ventures.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xRpVl7t3s0&t=25s
16. Turkey is a key player in the Mediterranean region and the future at large. Helpful conversation to understand their role.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aw8Gn1HIGKE
17. Top notch show for commentary on Silicon Valley news. Good episode.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dPNKZOyke4
18. "It’s also the hottest trend in software development. Vibe coding : dictating what you want to code with speech into an AI.
If even the most technical of us prefer voice, the next step is obvious : a laptop without a keyboard.
Soon that collection of QWERTY squares will look as archaic as Hemingway’s Underwood typewriter - a relic of a bygone era."
https://tomtunguz.com/no-keyboard-ui/
19. Quite a wide ranging conversation on politics, global macro and Silicon Valley ie. Wiz-Alphabet Deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1MAA8y4CgU
20. "Humans came off the savanna hard-wired for addiction. The dopamine rush a hunter felt when taking down a mammoth is neurologically the same feeling a gambler gets when betting. Our instinct to gorge whenever we see food was honed during millenia of scarcity, and it’s that same instinct the food industrial complex leverages to keep people eating long past the point of being satiated.
Ours is an addiction economy: The most valuable companies arbitrage the disparity between our instincts and industrial production."
https://www.profgalloway.com/porn/
21. "The same is true for the Ukraine war. Each side wants to pay the lowest political price for anything more than it won. Russia wanted to regain Ukraine as a buffer against the West. The U.S. didn’t want Russia to border NATO. The war has been fought, and it looks as though Russia gained a buffer in east Ukraine, albeit a smaller one than it wanted. The U.S. wants to end the war and has to be satisfied with the outcome. Ukraine is now in the same position during the negotiations with Russia as the South Vietnamese were in the Vietnam War.
The end of the war is inevitable, and articles are now appearing in the media about the postwar reality. Some observers talk about how hedge funds are eager to invest in Russia. Others say Russia will have a high price to pay as it moves away from a wartime economy. Others still speculate about the geopolitical effect of the war on Europe and China."
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/engineering-an-end-to-the-ukraine-war/
22. "Entrepreneurs should always provide regular updates. The alternative—not doing any updates—is strongly discouraged. Rather, the big idea is that updates are one of the best ways to connect with all constituents, from employees to partners to mentors to investors. For some entrepreneurs, this can be a calling card that helps differentiate them from others in the market."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/03/22/entrepreneur-updates-as-leading-indicator-of-success/
23. Trying to understand who the players are in this new administration. Also want to hear from people first before you judge them. This was very interesting. The head of Commerce.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=182ckTL2KBA&t=1839s
24. Bessent is really sharp. Listening to our Head of Treasury to understand where America is going and the impact for the economy in America and globally (and our own personal investing)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSma9suyp24&t=10s
25. There is so much gold here. I appreciate every interview with Tai Lopez. So many insights & framework for making money. Worth listening to a few times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8LE9en8k6c
26. Interesting take from Taiwanese military expert. Hope he is right that CCP will not be able to take Taiwan but much of this is cope. No good can come out of underestimating an adversary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBpNbgXNcYE
27. I always learn from Tai Lopez. Wise beyond his years. How to be a Renaissance man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUwYQxjCNfs
28. "One group will say that the world was designed around humans and thus if we can build humanoid robots, they are easier to deploy in the world. Then we don’t have to adapt factories or homes or other systems to the limitations of robots. Humanoids can climb stairs and play the piano and hold coffee mugs and all the things humans can do.
But there are problems. Battery life is limited. AI processing at the edge is still nascent.
The other group of roboticist I know will say that humanoid robots will be the worst at everything and lose the advantages of robotic specialization. Specialized robots will always be stronger, faster, and more economically efficient for a given task than a humanoid robot.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. My guess is there are markets for both, depending on the economics of the deployment opportunity."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/investment-opportunities-humanoid
29. "Oil is a key driver of Arctic interests. Trump reversed President Biden’s ban on Arctic drilling with an Executive Order in January. Both the we and Saudi are now squeezing Russia. Russia has oil, but it can’t get it to market as cheaply as the US and Saudi countries can. They understand that Trump meant it when he pledged during the campaign to lower consumers’ energy costs by 50% within a year. Secretary of Energy Wright recently said that this “is still doable.” That is music to those Americans who are concerned about costs, but it is a real threat to Russia, especially now that Saudi has confirmed its intention to invest more than $600b in the US during Trump’s time in office. Arctic oil is expensive to bring to market. If Russia wants to survive the pressure from falling oil prices, it needs to play more nicely with the US and Saudi alike. So, some of the “that’s mine” approach to the Arctic is about divvying up territory.
The whole world map is in play, often in remote places that we are usually not thinking about. But the locals are thinking about it. Sweden is preparing for war and recruiting for its Arctic brigades. Finland and the Baltics are also preparing. But, in a welcome turn of events, the Europeans are now exploring what role they’ll play in Ukraine if the deal between the superpowers succeeds and peace breaks out. As the WSJ reports, “Britain, France, Sweden, Denmark and Australia have said they are considering putting boots on the ground” in the event of war continuing in Ukraine. The question is how many boots will be needed if there is peace. Europe will face having a North Korea in its midst, and there’s no plan for that."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/valkyries-vallhala-and-vectoring
30. I recommend listening to Tai Lopez. So many useful tips and ideas for making your life richer, healthier and happier.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjU6ppsfpIo
31. "Ukraine’s independent long-range strike capability: Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian targets at operational and strategic depth gives it the capacity to impose significant costs on Russia for as long as the war continues. This capability operates outside the constraints of frontline dynamics and largely independently of its allies.
As we know, U.S. support either appears to be gone or, at best, highly uncertain for the coming years. Europe is attempting to step up, but cannot do so quickly enough—especially while also scrambling to rebuild its own defense posture. Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to have largely lost its positions in the Kursk region, even as it tries to hold ground there and push into other areas.
This suggests that Ukraine’s only remaining source of significant coercive leverage—one it maintains regardless of shifts among its allies or developments on the ground—is its ability to impose sustained costs on Russia for as long as the war continues."
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/drones-missiles-and-leverage-why
32. Tai Lopez wisdom. SO very good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMNdWHoJcVk&t=151s
33. Super insightful episode today, lots of good stuff on personal growth & parenting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTX8JajsBxc
34. Tai Lopez is a wise man. Worth listening to this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KS4ZcZo2bwo
35. The world belongs to the risk takers. Tai Lopez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEJdcXai_7w
36. "In fact, I’ve found myself using ideology as my explanation for much of what the Trump administration has done in the two months since it came to power. I explained Trump’s tariffs as an ideologically driven attempt to isolate America from foreign dependency and ape the country’s “glory days” of the pre-WW2 period. And I explained Elon Musk’s DOGE as an attempt to purge “woke” progressivism from the U.S. government and other institutions.
These aren’t all quite the same ideology. Vance, Trump, and Musk have worldviews that differ in important and consequential ways. Yet they’re all recognizably affiliated — subsets of one category that we might broadly call the New Right.
Understanding the New Right is sort of a gestalt exercise — you’re basically acting like an LLM. Listen to leaders like Vance, and mainstream media figures like Joe Rogan who have drifted to the right in recent years. Then read a bunch of people on the right and pattern-match to figure out which thought leaders folks like Vance and Rogan sound like. You’ll probably end up with influencers like Charlie Kirk and Jack Posobiecand Tucker Carlson and Auron MacIntyre, and blogs like Aporia and The Upheaval. Then try to isolate some common themes and big ideas, and see if you can use those to parsimoniously explain the attitudes and actions of leaders like Vance.
Once this basic understanding is in place, I think a lot of the Trump administration’s seemingly boneheaded, overly risky, or counterproductive actions become less mysterious. That doesn’t mean the Trump administration isn’t incompetent, or that everything is proceeding according to some grand plan. But I think it helps clarify some of the goals the MAGA folks are trying to accomplish with things like tariffs, abandoning Europe, embracing Russia, purging the government, amassing executive power, kicking out immigrants, and so on."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/understanding-americas-new-right