Living in and Surviving Boomtowns: San Francisco in the 21st Century

I was rewatching Landman and they got around to talking about the oil boomtown of Midland, Texas. 

“Boomtowns. It ain’t different than Tombstone. Dodge City. San Francisco. First come the dreamers. Then the bankers. Then the salesmen. Then the sharks. Then the desperate. And then the thieves.”

This is definitely the cycle I’ve seen now 4 times in Silicon Valley. We are in the midst of the AI boom and my take as of 2025, we are in the banker & salesman phase right now. The sharks & the desperate have not shown up yet, although I am seeing a few emerging these last few months. I guess that means we are still early in this cycle. 

Longevity in this town is hard. Irrelevance is just around the corner. Paraphrasing Tommy, the main character said: “You can be a dreamer but you gotta have a plan.” 

Besides location, location, location. My career plan was always to follow my curiosity. Even if it was not cool or on trend. And if it doesn’t work out and most of the time it doesn’t, I meet some new people, pick up new skills and learn something new. It becomes a latticework of knowledge that surprisingly almost always turns out to be useful in future. 

I take as many swings as possible, big or small. This increases the possibility of something going right and hitting big. This is why you have to stay in the game. Take the hits and survive. That means being liquid and being able to take the inevitable losses or downturn. So you can then reposition. Catch the next cycle on the way up. 

An apt quote from the show: “My dad told me something a long time ago. You got two choices. You gotta get really good at balancing a check book or you make enough money you don’t have to…..When the money comes, it comes fast.”

The rule is to make sure you don’t cut corners along the way. Quoting Tommy again: “Short cut is always the longest road.” That is why I am always “long term greedy”. Build relationships and never trade your reputation for money. Don’t over-optimize. 

If you do this wherever you are, whatever industry or career you pursue, you will be fine.