History Rhymes: People and Civilizations Don’t Change Very Much

Twitter aka X, has actually been a major source of alpha for me. I get opposing views, rage baited a lot. But I also get lots of inspiration, insights and ideas. It’s amazing if you know how to mine and use it. 

I follow Calvin Froedge. An American based in Panama, entrepreneur but also private investor who is kind of a curmudgeon. Yet he is super sharp and thinks orthogonally. This is another way of saying, he has an original and different view of the world, which is why he is full of great takes and investing ideas. I don’t agree with all of his views (bit too libertarian for me) but I respect that he thinks for himself and puts his ideas out there.  

Calvin is very good at extrapolating trends out from big events in the world. And consequent investment opportunities that come out of these situations. Something he stated right after the Israeli-American attacks on Iran in March and the havoc caused by the Iranian counterpunch across the GCC: 

“ Why American chemical companies? Ok, let's imagine your three biggest competitors (Middle East, Europe, and Asia) go out of business overnight because they either lose feedstock access or can't export. That's what just happened in petrochemicals.”

He also wrote: 

“Best performers in the 70s were oil, precious metals, and chemicals. 

Study the 1970s as your blueprint for trading the next few years.”

It makes sense. What happened in the 1970s? War in the Middle East. Massive energy crises which caused economic challenges across the world. Stagflation: basically stagnating economy and massive inflation. Major change in Dollar system: basically Nixon took the US off the gold standard. Political gridlock and disillusionment. Literal riots, crime waves and disorder in many American cities. 

History is a great teacher if you pay attention. And we see a movement in the world toward sovereignty which means rearming, reindustrialization and tighter control of supply chains. Things that countries took for granted in the previous decades of financialization and globalization.  Well, not anymore. Back to the future it seems.