Don’t Drift: Chasing Trends is Dumb

We all know that there is no overnight success. At least anyone who has a brain, been around and worked for a living knows. Results usually are not instantaneous in your career or in your business. Good stuff takes time. You need time to learn and go through as many iterations before something really starts to work. 

Yet you see these people jump from trend to trend. Whether it is SaaS, then Crypto, the Metaverse, Gaming and now AI or Defense-tech. Whatever is the flavor of the month. And by the way, this is relevant for founders as much as VC investors who are infamous trend hoppers. 

I’ve also learned that Top 20 MBAs are notorious for this and act as a good signal for the top of a trend. Just look at what industries and companies they want to work in. Going for the “sure thing”. Or another signal of the top is when it gets talked about in the business magazines or mainstream media at large. All these are signs that it’s already way too late. 

But having been in startups and in investing for a while now, there is no sure thing. Especially when it’s consensus. When it’s consensus it’s too late because everyone already sees it. And thus you end up getting swarmed with competition. 

The money is made before something becomes consensus. To do this, you have to be prepared to be seen as uncool, misunderstood and probably derided. Low status even. This is the acme of investing and startups. The acme of massive wealth creation. 

The most successful people I know have a willingness to work on something for long periods of time, way ahead of everyone else. Years and sometimes decades. To gain knowledge and get really good at something before others jump on it. It’s what Peter Thiel famously referred to as your secret. Your edge. 

So don’t trend hop. It’s the loser's way. Find something that personally interests you. That you can get obsessive about so you are willing to stick with for at least a decade. This is how you achieve greatness. This is how you win in business and in life. Focus and become a craftsman. 

Trend hopping is for losers.