Don’t Get Disconnected: Losing Touch with Reality
In a recent visit to Vancouver to see my folks, I learned I had a very old bank account. So I went with my dad to shut it down. Long story short, it was an administrative headache, taking an hour, although I will say they were very nice and polite. I walked out going, “what a pain but whatever” as I got to spend time with my dad and daughter so it was fine. But normally this kind of stuff is so irritating and infuriating.
I started thinking about the super wealthy and super famous people I knew. All post-economic. When you are so wealthy you don’t need to do the everyday things of getting groceries, waiting in line at post office or bank, sorting out random things at the mall. You have people do that for you. You don’t fly commercial airlines, you fly private so you don’t go through lines. You holiday away from the “poors” and regular people. I totally get it. You want security and you don’t want to waste your time. You don’t do anything you don’t want to.
Because of this, I’ve also noticed in general, how completely out of touch they were with regular folks and all the hassles regular people have to put up with. Do this for many years and you completely lose sight of the reality of most people. You literally have no idea. No sense. This shows up in the cluelessness and callousness of the things they say on stage or in the media. Or worse, the flashiness of their luxurious lifestyle on social media. Real ragebait for the down slope of the K-shaped economy.
I recall the public outcry during the pandemic when the Kardashians flew their entire family to a luxury resort island to celebrate a family member's birthday, while all of us were locked down. So many such cases and it’s no wonder people want to eat the rich. There is very little sympathy for the wealthy, even in America despite the large amount of charitable causes they support.
The point I write here is that it's good to do everyday things and experience hassles every once in a while. It’s good to not isolate yourself, unless you live in a crime ridden hellhole. Interact with everyone, of all socioeconomic stratas.
And if you do happen to be well off, don’t be flashy, don’t be an a–hole. Tip super well. Live like a normal dude. Be stealth wealth. Why? It’s good not to be a dick and there is such a thing as karma (although it takes a while). No one likes a show off. More practically, the backlash coming against the wealthy in this decade will be ferocious due the AI and finance driven layoffs coming. A backlash specifically for tech and finance bros. So stay quiet, stay smart, stay alert and stay alive. Especially in times of massive change like we are in right now.
Winners and Losers: It’s All in Your Mind
I am a fan of Andrew Huberman of the Huberman Labs podcast, where he talks about health and wellness via the lens of biohacking. It felt like he came from nowhere to being everywhere.
He is a life long learner and someone living life to his own definition. A winner for sure. I listened to an interview and he said something that really stuck with me.
"Someone I really respect said this, 'There are basically two kinds of people in life. Winners and losers.' And the definition is this—losers take things that happen to them... and the wallow and they use it for self or outward destruction."
"Winners take whatever they feel, it sucks, and they transmute it into things that are good for themselves and for the world."
Most people according to this then are losers. I was one of these people for a very long time in my life. But I worked on myself. I am still working on myself. I had to change my mindset of victimhood. I’m a conqueror. Everything is my fault and I’ll act accordingly. I don’t control the outside world but I can control how I react to it.
Mindset and action is the only thing that determines a winner from a loser. Don’t be a loser.
Go Direct: You are the Message
Everyone needs a personal brand. Whether you are a politician, business man or even individual contributor or employee. Literally everyone needs to build one. It’s the only way to stand out. I’ve heard many people talk about this like Marc Andressen, Balaji or even Tai Lopez. I got it intellectually and directionally but I did not truly grok this until entrepreneur and former YC partner Qasar Younis blogged about it. He really explained what is driving this and the context of this massive change.
He wrote:
"One of the hallmark trends of our generation is the fall of confidence in institutions. From the 1970s until now, people have lost faith in almost every major institution, from government to corporations. Post–World War II, America trusted places like General Motors or The Wall Street Journal as organizations acting in society’s interest, serving as gatekeepers. The world was different. Information was scarce and slow-moving.
The internet blew all of that up. As information got to end users faster, the narrative became a bit harder to control. But it wasn’t so much that these institutions were blatantly lying – but institutions, like a business, are just groups of people working together. And within every group there is a complex, sometimes conflicting, set of goals and actions. All this results in the average person getting mixed messages and therefore not trusting the institution. You see this in politics too as being the “establishment” candidate is basically a death sentence now.
The alternative narrative is fundamentally direct-to-consumer. Just like brands that skip traditional distribution, ideas now bypass institutions entirely.
Everyone from Alex Karp to Zohran Mamdani to President Trump operates on this wavelength:
I don’t want to hear from your corporation or your party. I want to hear directly from you.
Institutional filtering is now an anti-signal. How many corporate X accounts are you following and taking seriously?"
It’s so critically important, especially in the age of AI. In the age of infinite slop. This is the only way to stand out in the crowd and really differentiate yourself. Whether you do it on X, write a newsletter, or do a podcast. You need to be a one person media company. You need to build your personal brand. This is job one for everyone.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 8th, 2026
“If you have a garden and a library, you have everything you need." – Marcus Tullius Cicero
The impact of revolutions. Freedom is not always the outcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TiOCJssqfDs&t=108s
2. The importance of Comms & PR: Storytelling for startup founders. Such an overlooked skill and clear differentiator in such a crowded market right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRoU1T4E9rQ
3. "In 2012, we cared that we used software. Today we care how we use it.
The difference is trajectory.
In the last decade, adopting software was the priority. Moving from on-premise to the cloud or digitizing a manual workflow promised productivity gains. Adoption was the finish line.
Today software is ubiquitous. Every salesperson uses a CRM & every engineer uses an IDE. The edge no longer comes from having the tool but from the specific path & manner in which that tool is used to achieve an outcome : a trajectory through software."
https://tomtunguz.com/ai-trajectories/
4. "It doesn’t matter if you’re a soldier, a human rights advocate, an economist, a financier, a manufacturer, or a farmer. War affects us all. This is certainly the case in wars close to our homes or in which we’re active participants. But it remains true even when a war is seemingly removed by geography or participation.
Wars interrupt supply chains and threaten global trade, increasing prices and destabilizing economies."
https://buildingourfuture.substack.com/p/defense-is-for-everyone
5. "Often when you’re stuck, a better cliche to follow than “just do something” is to double down on strengths. I didn’t use the framing of “double down on what’s working” because presumably if you’re stuck, things don’t seem to be working. If you’re at a low point, even the word “strengths” might fail to conjure up a long list.
Be that as it may, most of us have lived life. We’ve lived in certain places, done particular things, befriended particular people. That’s a good starting point."
https://www.optimaloutliers.com/p/better-than-just-do-something
6. Good episode this week. Lots of good takes and predictions for 2026.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEb2DX0TzKM
7. "Humans evolved around campfires, sharing stories for thousands of years. The power of a story is unlike anything else. My recommendation for entrepreneurs is to exercise their storytelling muscle and actively look for ways to improve their craft. Writing, speaking, and every other form of communication becomes far more powerful when driven by compelling stories."
https://davidcummings.org/2026/01/10/intentional-story-teller/
8. "In life there are many ways to make money. Some restrict you more than others.
Prioritize building income streams that don’t take away your freedom. Because money is far more useful to a free man than to an un-free man.
It is far superior to make $250k a year from an online business that lets you travel whenever and wherever you want than to make $500k a year from a job or an offline business that forces you to be at a particular location all the time.
People often regret working “too hard” and making money they have no use of while the years of their life go by. No one ever regrets enjoying their life, travelling often, and living to their fullest."
https://lifemathmoney.com/dont-waste-your-20s-how-to-maximize-your-twenties-part-2/
9. "Why the US should be expected to have any contact with a country like Kyrgyzstan is a fair query to start with. Look at a map zoomed out and the country seems to be swallowed in an embrace by China to the east and by Kazakhstan and — more distantly — Russia to the north. The country is poor, with a nominal GDP per capita of under $3,000, and has limited natural resources. It’s mountainous and largely rural, with proud nomadic traditions, a culture taking in elements from the Russian, Chinese, Arabic, and Turkic worlds, and its history couldn’t be more remote from America’s.
But spend time here and a certain US influence becomes obvious enough. I am able to teach my journalism course in English at an international university with good comprehension from my students. My students routinely make fun of me for how behind the curve I am in following P. Diddy’s trial or not quite being able to explain who Charli XCX is. Many of them fantasise about living in the US. If I’m in a cab, it’s routine for the driver to suddenly put on speakerphone a brother or cousin who’s living in the States so that we can trade pleasantries with one another. Bishkek is filled with malls that give me flashbacks to the time I spent living in Los Angeles.
And, as an American, I am treated with a respect and an interest that I don’t think I’ve quite experienced anywhere else in the world — there’s just a curiosity about Americanness that I think much of the rest of the world has moved past."
https://unherd.com/2026/01/the-land-that-westernisation-forgot/
10. "Let’s review the state of the chessboard.
The US now has a vertically integrated loop for supplying itself and the entire world the critical medium and heavy crude oil products.
It can play the hand of favorites for those states willing to supplicate. This strengthens its position within the Western Bloc as the de facto Hegemon.
While the US controls the “Perfect Machine” (Gulf Coast Coking Refineries), the Eastern Bloc relies on a clumsy, distributed “Symbiotic Chain” where Russia/Iran acts as the crude extraction colony and China acts as the dirty processing lab.
The US also gains a geographic arterial strike advantage by only having to monitor the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean, and Yellow Sea.
By seizing Venezuelan Orinoco heavy oil, the US also effectively secures the highest-value feedstock for its specialized machine, forcing China to run its “Teapot” refineries on inferior or politically volatile alternatives. This heavy oil sludge can be more easily cracked into lower forms as needed for desired usage.
Heavy oils give US optionality in refining. It is more efficient to “chop” that it is to “glue.”
The US will very likely install governance and corporate structure that is supplicating to its national needs. It can begin to squeeze the Eastern Bloc slowly by reducing exports of Merey 16. Or it can simply increase prices. China was able to buy this sanctioned oil at discount.
Now the US controls this oil supply. It’s categorization is “Clean.” So China pays fair market prices for continuing their infrastructure construction.
The same way that China uses REE controls.
We can make an estimation that China currently relies upon Venezuelan bitumen for roughly 50% of its asphalt production needs.
Depending on the mood of the US administration, this is about to get very expensive or outright disappear from China’s procurement.
Whether by design or coincidence, the US now has a very real wartime advantage against China.
It’s likely the US does not recognize this fully. They just wanted China OUT.
You probably just read an intelligence report that governments pay millions of dollars for to use in war gaming simulations.
“Amateurs talk tactics.
Professionals talk logistics.”
https://endtropy.substack.com/p/trumps-enormous-c-length-win-over
11. "Success often brings a hidden curse: Structural Density. You build a company, then a larger home, then a staff to manage the home, then a legal team to manage the staff. Before you realize it, you are no longer a creator; you are a high-end janitor for your own life. You have built a gilded cage where the cost of maintenance both financial and mental exceeds the joy of ownership. You are “rich,” but you are no longer sovereign.
The ultimate signal of power today is the Ghost Presence. No active social media, no public-facing email, no “About” page on a website. You exist only to those who have your direct number. While the middle class is busy building “personal brands” for strangers, the sovereign elite are busy deleting themselves from the public record. Anonymity is the new private jet."
https://substack.com/inbox/post/184149503
12. "Stop trying to optimize the trivial. You cannot build a sovereign life by managing a thousand tiny leaks. Find the one variable that defines your trajectory and ignore everything else. The gallery is only beautiful because of what the curator chose to leave out."
https://substack.com/@luxlifestylelab/p-182844265
13. "As ice recedes, there’s even talk of future trans polar routes straight over the North Pole—essentially new Panama Canals made of water. You can bet that Greenland—the nearest land for thousands of miles—would be strategically valuable for supporting or monitoring such routes. Every navy with Arctic ambitions would love a friendly port or refueling point in Greenland’s sheltered fjords.
And let’s not forget about natural resources. Beneath Greenland’s icy surface lies a treasure trove of minerals and energy—a fact not lost on world powers. Geological surveys indicate that Greenland is rich in rare earth metals, uranium, iron ore, zinc, lead, gemstones, and potentially oil and gas. In 2023, a survey found that Greenland has 25 out of the 34 minerals deemed critical by the EU for modern economies.
That’s huge, because many of these “critical minerals” (like rare earth elements, cobalt, and so on) are essential for things like smartphones, electric car batteries, wind turbines, missile systems—basically the high tech gadgets and green energy gear that power modern life. Right now, China dominates global supply chains for a lot of these materials. So, the U.S. and Europe eye Greenland’s untapped reserves as a golden opportunity to diversify supply. In fact, Greenland’s rare earth deposits are among the largest outside China, which is one reason the island has popped up on Washington’s radar (pun intended).
To sum up, today’s Greenland is a weird and potent mix of “old school” strategic geography and “new school” climate tech importance. It’s still that same crucial Arctic waypoint for defense and transit, just like in the 20th century. But it’s also gaining fresh relevance due to melting ice (new sea lanes) and the tech boom (need for rare minerals). Add in its enormous size (did I mention Greenland is three times the size of Texas?), and you have an enticing piece of real estate for any global power. Which brings us back to one global power in particular that made a very public play for Greenland not so long ago…"
https://gbnt1952.substack.com/p/the-strategic-value-of-greenland
14. Understanding American strategy & doctrine under Trump 2.0.
Unrestricted competition against everyone: hard knuckle policy and action (economic and kinetic) by America. Don't like it but here we are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2-eNucEYSg
15. K-shaped economy & living in a trustless society. Society is split between those who have everything to lose and those who have nothing to lose.
Scary time in America & UK (Canada & Europe are not in any great shape either).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnIv60_Y3jc
16. "We live in an era where building a multimillion-dollar company no longer requires massive teams, big offices, or investor funding.
The “one-person business” revolution has arrived driven by technology, automation, and global distribution.
From creators and consultants to software developers and digital product sellers, individuals are scaling businesses to millions in revenue without hiring a single full-time employee."
https://luxlifestylelab.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-one-person-businesses
17. "Let me be specific about what I think we should expect from elites. This is not a demand for sainthood. It’s a demand for something more than nothing.
Use your cognitive capacity for more than career advancement. Spend time understanding problems that matter. Don’t outsource your worldview to whatever your profession tells you. Think, actually think, about what’s broken and what might fix it.
Use your economic security to take risks. You have a safety net that most people don’t. Use it.
That might mean taking a lower-paying job with more impact. It might mean funding something uncertain. It might mean speaking up when speaking up has costs. The security is wasted if you never use it.
Use your social capital to open doors. You know people. You have access. Some of that access could be made available to people doing important work. Introductions, legitimacy, and connections are valuable and you’re hoarding them.
Use your institutional position to push for change. You’re somewhere in the system. Maybe you can’t change everything, but you can change something. The question to ask: “What’s the most important thing I can affect from where I sit?” Most people never ask this. They just do what’s expected.
Rethink the allocation of your time and energy. You probably work fifty or sixty hours a week. How much of that is genuinely necessary? How much is status maintenance, or hedonic treadmill, or just what you’ve always done? The reallocation doesn’t have to be dramatic. Even ten hours a week redirected to something that matters would, across millions of elites, transform what’s possible.
This doesn’t mean becoming an activist or a monk or a martyr.
It’s about the marginal question: given what you have and what you can do, are you doing enough?
And for most elites, the honest answer is no."
https://edankrolewicz.substack.com/p/buried-talents
18. This is excellent. A real debate on the future of America and China, India and Internet civilization. Insight dense conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_uIqjmbJg8&t=85s
19. You need to hire obsessed maniacs. Basically that is what startups require.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWFuck9NxVw
20. "The two new notable drivers of USD demand are 1) the building US mega-IPO pipeline for 2026, and 2) the LATAM investment / dollarisation boom. Both force dollar demand as much out of necessity as they do preference."
https://dollarwatchtower.substack.com/p/resurrecting-the-us-golden-age
21. I do think BTC is digital gold as a tech guy. But Giustra is pretty smart though.
"Now, I’m known as a gold guy. Guilty as charged. I started buying physical gold in 2001 when I realized the U.S. dollar was walking into an inescapable debt trap and was bound to lose value against gold. I’ve helped finance dozens of mining companies, and as I recount in my memoir *The Money Dilemma* (out later this year), my faith has paid off.
Is Bitcoin a similar store of value and hedge against failing fiat currencies? Maybe someday. Call me a cynic , but I have my own reasons to believe there is much risk in taking that chance as a store of my wealth, and I prefer to sleep at night. I would rather accumulate an asset that for the past decade has been quietly, and at times covertly, amassed by 120 of the world’s most powerful central banks and nations—an asset they mine, hold, and trade among themselves to sideline the dollar—than an asset being hyped by a cabal of billionaires and their media proxies.
Bitcoin is many things. It’s a reaction to the 2008 financial crisis. It’s a libertarian belief system wrapped in software, an ambitious attempt to create money that isn’t issued by the state. It’s an experiment to see whether code can substitute for governance. It’s a speculative asset fueled by a quasi-cultish belief.
Like gold, it’s rare, it’s mined, and it’s often hoarded. Have many investors made a fortune on Bitcoin? Absolutely. But is it digital gold? Not there yet, in my opinion."
https://frankgiustra.com/posts/is-bitcoin-really-digital-gold/
22. "Ohio’s leaders have parlayed this newfound gas bounty into cheap electricity production. According to EIA data, nearly 60% of the state’s electricity is generated from natural gas, a fuel that provides both baseload and dispatchable power. Coal and nuclear power supply about 80% of the remaining balance, while wind and solar combined contribute just under 8% of total generation. Of course, Ohio does not operate its grid in a vacuum, and local price dynamics are heavily influenced by the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) regional transmission organization, of which it is a member.
Given this fact set, Ohio would seem an ideal place for large data centers to set up shop. Indeed, almost unique among US states, Ohio’s political leaders have created a regulatory framework that sets the stage for a massive boom in the construction of such facilities while working to protect consumers."
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/intelligent-design
23. "As AI models commoditize, the economics of running them (inference) matter more than the cost of building them (training). Hyperscalers like Google (TPU), Amazon (Trainium), and Microsoft (Maia) are all building internal chips to escape the “Nvidia Tax.” Groq was the only independent startup providing a “good enough” alternative for real-time workloads like voice AI, robotics, and autonomous systems. By neutralizing Groq, Nvidia has removed the escape hatch.
What This Means for the Inference Landscape.
The signal to the market is clear: Inference is where the long-term revenue lives. Training is a massive, one-time CapEx event; inference is the recurring, scaling OpEx that happens every time a user prompts a model.
By the end of 2026, everyone will be focused on inference economics. If you are going to place your investing bets, that’s the place to start."
https://investinginai.substack.com/p/the-inference-land-grab-begins
24. "Unfortunately, European states currently face a substantial capability gap in deep-strike weapons, including medium- to intermediate-range ballistic missile systems comparable to the Oreshnik. While these capabilities are gradually being developed and deployed, Europe is likely still several years away from fielding the types and quantities of missile systems required.
In addition, without the United States, Europe’s nuclear capabilities are limited in both quality and quantity and are insufficient to credibly address Russia’s large and diverse nuclear arsenal, including its pronounced advantage in non-strategic nuclear weapons. In a conflict with NATO, particularly one in which the United States was not involved, Russia would therefore retain significant coercive leverage in the nuclear domain.
Overall, Oreshnik poses a distinct challenge to European security. This challenge stems less from the missile’s technical characteristics, which remain overstated, than from the way it exposes and amplifies existing European capability gaps that require urgent attention."
https://missilematters.substack.com/p/oreshnik-is-overhyped-but-poses-a
25. "TL;DR:
The US is betting on intelligence. China is betting somewhere else!The US frequently frames its competition with China as an AI race, similar to the space race it ran with the USSR. The idea of a race was triggered around a year ago with the launch of DeepSeek. Ever since, much of the US media has been fascinated with the idea of the US winning the AI race against China.
Ironically, it isn’t much of a race if the US is the only one running it.
The American ‘AI race’ is framed around who will build the smartest models, as if superior intelligence alone decides the future.
China’s strategy reveals a different understanding of the game altogether.
It is not trying to win AI at all. It is betting that intelligence will become abundant, and that power will flow instead to whoever can reliably turn intelligence into economic value."
https://platforms.substack.com/p/us-vs-china-how-to-win-the-wrong
26. "Against this background, Greenland must be considered as a denied strategic space, not an ignored one. The Arctic reality in Cold War 2.0 is therefore neither hysteria nor denial: Greenland is not encircled, but the High North remains a real exposure, with the DragonBear risk vector becoming asymmetric, primarily Russian in military terms, and Chinese in shaping the long-term geo-economic environment."
https://substack.com/inbox/post/184203912
27. 1517 is an underrated vc firm, working with founders at the earliest moments and ages. Lots of observations on how to help and work with younger founders. True belief capital.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7jIc-9N1ck
28. "When Salesforce throttles Slack’s API, they’re telegraphing where the value is. When Epic locks down patient records, they’re drawing a map. Incumbents don’t build walls around worthless assets. And they don’t build defenses unless they perceive credible & urgent challengers.
AI’s speed enables both startups & incumbents to own a stack end-to-end. That’s offense in an era of walls."
https://tomtunguz.com/defense-comes-to-software/
29. "In conclusion, there were three big geopolitical losses inflicted by Mr. Putin on Russia. Economic, political and ideological loss of relations with Europe; reduced national security due to the presence of NATO on Russia’s borders and willful disregard of national treasure; and finally, the creation of a Ukraine that, by its very construction, will remain an anti-Russia for a very long time. While the war was justified by arguing that it would improve Russia’s geopolitical situation it achieved the opposite."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-long-term-political-consequences
30. "2026 is when the AI story stops being about a fairytale of infinity and starts being about proof. Proof of economics. Proof of defensibility. Proof that scale compounds instead of hollowing out the core. Who will survive when the narrative meets reality?"
https://snailmail.slow.co/p/the-only-ai-questions-that-matter-for-2026
31. Nuff said: Palmer Luckey of Anduril! Always a fun and interesting interview with him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHLiA76hVps
32. "The use of an Oreshnik missile in Lviv makes strategic sense to Putin. Their use is the sign of a fearful, worried leader and not one that is confident and anticipating victory."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-russian-oreshnik-strike-on-lviv
33. "It is easy to fall for the average trap and start designing your life according to it. Average people are everywhere around you. They are your colleagues. Your friend. and the people you pass on the street. Does that mean they are bad people? No. Does that mean you should be like them? Absolutely not.
Ask yourself whether you want to live the life they are living. The answer will tell you everything.
Most average traits are ownership issues. Once you take control of your actions, emotions, and thoughts. It will all click.
Three months is all you need to get rid of a pattern or behavior you want to change."
https://www.beautyofsaas.com/p/traits-of-the-average-people
34. "Copper has emerged as a foundational metal of the 21st century, uniquely critical to the electrified economy underpinning artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), grid expansion, and defense systems. As global electrification accelerates, demand for copper is projected to rise sharply — yet supply is not keeping pace, creating a widening gap that could constrain economic growth, technological advancement, and global infrastructure development.
S&P Global recently published a report titled “Copper in the Age of AI: Challenges of Electrification”. The S&P Global report frames copper not just as another industrial commodity but as the “connective artery” of modern infrastructure — essential wherever electricity flows, wires are deployed, or advanced digital systems are installed. It highlights how AI’s energy and hardware needs intensify demand on an already stressed supply chain.
When you think of copper as the connective artery of all modern infrastructure, you quickly come to understand the strategic importance of the red metal and why the price has to move higher over the coming years."
https://robertsinn.substack.com/p/the-essential-role-of-copper-and
35. "We are talking about fifty people, maybe even fewer. That’s because there’s so much overlap. The CEO of Google alone is a key decision maker for search, apps, videos, music, podcasts, and much more. The same is true of Amazon, Apple, and Meta. They have their fingers in every pie, and an insatiable appetite for more.
The story gets even worse. If you look at the background of these fifty people, you find that most of them lack experience or credibility in arts and culture. They are technocrats or administrators. There’s no evidence that they love music or books or paintings—or anything except their share price and pay checks.
But they get to decide almost everything in the culture sphere. And they’re incentivized to make decisions out of financial self-interest, totally divorced from aesthetic concerns.
2026 will be a struggle. The legacy institutions and tech platforms are consolidating, and this gives them more power. It’s reassuring to see how poorly they exercise that power—churning out reboots and retreads. (If they were smarter, the culture would suffer even more.) Their mistakes offer an opportunity for the outsider.
And the next new thing always comes from the outside. The culture stagnates without fresh infusions from the fringe.
This year we need to keep that fringe alive. We need to help it on the indie platforms and the indie labels and the indie cinemas and indie galleries and indie media outlets.
But that requires action from us, both as creators and members of an informed audience—those fifty culture elites in positions of power couldn’t care less. They’re too busy looking at the share price.
This is the defining tension in the culture ecosystem. On one side, we have consolidation of power among a tiny number of elite insiders. On the other, we hear clamoring outsiders with their alternative voices and independent perspectives."
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/fifty-people-control-the-culture
36. Some Alt-Geopolitics. Lots of this stuff is wacky and conspiracy theorist. But listen to everyone to try to understand all the crazy that is going on in the world.
Warband Maxxing: Build Your Tribe Part Deux
Like many men, when times get tough, I naturally close inward and cut off contact with friends and family. I refuse to ask for help or even talk to anyone. This is a huge mistake. You have to fight your instincts.
This also seems to be more common especially in an extremely individualistic, isolated and cold society like America, where we only usually come together in times of direct threat. No surprise that the rise of prepper culture is mainly an American thing. Where you keep a stockpile of food, supplies and weapons to ride out a crisis or emergency.
But Lone wolves die quickly & quietly. And as usual there were some interesting takes on X that point to the right mode to get through these times of poly-crisis.
Homeric Futurist: “But if you look at people in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Brazil, or wherever. Nobody is living on years of stockpiled supplies. That is a bourgeois notion.
They thrive through their networks, local influence, capacity for violence, black market economies etc.”
Titus Manlius describes what happened during the brutal decades long civil war in Lebanon in the 1970s & 1980s: “Christians in Lebanon stockpile ammo and supplies. Fortify their homes (gates, barred windows, cameras, solar, generators). But yes, they thrive with family, local/international networks, influence, neighbors, associations, churches. It sh-t hits the fan, the bells ring.”
Source: https://x.com/HomericFuturist/status/1998799690020827635.
This is absolutely the way. You need to build your tribe. Maybe better said, your war band.
Like “Rogue Frontier” you have to actively work on building these communities before a crisis. And there are many old historical precedents beyond recent times. It’s almost like men are wired for this in reaction to societal breakdown and challenges.
“Modern man feels a profound sense of meaninglessness precisely because his bonds of fraternal brotherhood have been shattered.
The great lie is that civilization is "evolving", progressing toward some bright, utopian future. The reverse is clearly true — as we move further from traditional hierarchy, the more rapidly society degenerates.
We men of tradition strive to become the most exemplary members of our folk, capable of reorganizing hierarchy around our superiority. We must be of such powerful quality that men find purpose through service to our ideals.
Now is the time to revitalize traditional structures of camaraderie and manifest a new destiny for our people — this begins with the formation of your own comitatus.
Ghengis Khan, in fact, began his conquest of the world with his "four fierce wolves" or "the dogs of Chinggis" — Khubilai, Jelme, Jebe, and Sübedei. Naturally, like Ghengis, the more heroic qualities you embody, the more men who will seek to serve your greatness.
In the ancient world, benefits of a comitatus were abundant:
"The lord in turn rewarded his comitatus, especially the core group of friends, by treating them as his own family, sharing his habitation and worldly goods with them, and bestowing much wealth upon them.
Warriors belonging to a comitatus were rewarded with almost unimaginable wealth and honor in their societies, not just once but over and over throughout their lives, as long as they served their lord, and in the afterlife as well.”
Source: https://x.com/RoguesPhilo/status/1998873215020708237.
Exploring this topic led me down the path to an old fictional book “Kara’s Game” that took place during the horrific Serbian siege of Sarajevo in 1994. It’s a gripping read and a frightening reminder of the depths that people can fall to. But there was a quote that seemed apt for the times, you learn about who you can count on when things get bad. “If you cannot help those who help you and yours, who can you help? If you can’t be loyal to those who are loyal to you and yours, then who or what the hell can you be loyal to.”
History is a great educator. Mike Shelby wrote:
“History is littered with the good guys losing the war and atrocities perpetrated against their innocent family members.
Stop thinking America could be any different. Don't lose faith that we will win, but be realistic that we could lose. Then keep training and preparing to win.”
So go build your war band. Everyone needs their crew during challenging times. 2026 to 2029 is going to be wild.
Go Tribal: Build a Clan
There is something about the highlands and mountains that creates fierce people. Think about the Scottish, Gurkhas, Dagestanis, Chechens, Georgians, Houthis and the ultimate empire killers, the Afghans. Some of the toughest human beings on earth. The tough, desolate and isolated terrains create brutal clannish people. Just like how the deserts and steppes also created tough brutal people like the Moroccan Tauregs, Turks, Mongols and Arabs of the past.
Brutal environments with scarce resources where every scrap was fought for. Clans and close family ties were critical for survival. People who you could count on, people who had your back no matter what. Who would shelter you, feed you and help you when you were sick. This gave you some margin of error and increased your chances of survival. We’re all wired to be tribal to begin with.
These cultural legacies still last into modern times. I remember being told by friends not to mess with Afghanis when I was growing up because when you mess with one of them, you get the whole family. Uncles, brothers, cousins and distant cousins would all come after you. They lived by feuds and as I recall the Ten Rings Boss man of Shang Chi said something along these lines: “A blood debt has to be paid by blood”. Or as was popularized by the Sicilian mafia: the vendetta.
I used to think these things such as clans and tribes were irrelevant & outdated. And they were in the magical global world we lived in. The Pax Americana of globalization where we all prospered together. Those days are over. The cycle has turned.
America, the formerly unified and trusting society is decaying. Broken institutions, broken infrastructure abetted by grifting, corrupt elites grabbing as much loot as they can. No one cares about you or your family, definitely not your politicians. Both Democrats and Republicans are equally venal and useless. Everyone, literally almost everyone is trying to get their bag and I absolutely hate this. We are now in a trustless society where people will be fighting far more than ever for the scraps left over. Dog eat dog.
I saw a Tweet by @Ellliotttb that summed this up: “Everyone hates you and wants to rob you…..anyone associated with the administration, local politicos, a16z, unions, pension consultants, loser real estate syndicators, crypto treasuries, spac sponsors, you’re alone on an island of pick pockets.”
@buccocapital describes the mode we need to work under accordingly: “This is the default state of being alive and operating with this mindset is how you get and stay rich.”
A great economic reset that has huge social implications for everyone. To survive and thrive, we need to learn from our not too distant past. Go tribal. Build your network. A network of brains, brawn, guns and cash. Better yet, build your clan or warband. You’re gonna need it as it’s gonna get ugly for a while.
Notice, Name, Relax and Release: A Method for Emotional Control
I attended the Hololife Summit in Tokyo in October last year. Formerly known as the Biohackers Summit, it was really educational. Most of the talks were basic but good reminders on things I should be doing more. Things like drinking more water and spending more time in nature.
But the talk by author and professor Rebecca Kochenderfer was probably the most helpful for me. She said something in her talk that hit, she said: “You aren’t broken, you are just emotional.” And that most emotions last no more than 3 minutes but we act on them which can be very detrimental to us and those around us.
So she introduced a concept called Notice, Name, Relax and Release. When you feel an emotion, especially one that is overwhelming. Stop, breathe and do the process. “Notice” how you are feeling, then “Name” it, usually anger or fear for me. “Relax” by box breathing and then “release it”, just let it go. So simple. Maybe too simple. But I’ve started using this and it’s been helpful.
Hopefully you can use this too. Use it to manage your emotions and make less bad decisions. Small steps like this will help you make your life better.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 1st, 2026
“There are always flowers for those who want to see them” – Henri Matisse
"Myriad reasons I’ve written about countless times, but important reasons as it relates to this reflection now were the yearning to prove I had what I call independent commercial value (ICV) versus relying on a single “intermediary” or “sole client” aka an employer in a W2 environment… and also to create my own universe in a way… to ram force sovereignty… to stop asking permission… to be completely free “from the matrix” as they say… live where I wanted with my wife and kids… travel anywhere… do anything… yet simultaneously build my own business… do the work I enjoyed and am good at… and build a brand around what I was doing."
https://www.junteau.com/p/proving-it-twice
2. "What justifies this action, from a Pentagon strategic perspective, is the convergence of three existential threats from America’s three primary adversaries. China has embedded operational control into critical mineral extraction that feeds weapons manufacturing. Iran has established drone production facilities within strike range of the continental United States. Russia has deployed military advisers and integrated air defense systems in the Caribbean.
Venezuela represents the only location where all three adversaries operate simultaneously. The oil is secondary. Breaking Chinese supply chain dominance, eliminating Iranian manufacturing capability, and expelling Russian military presence are primary."
https://renegaderesources.pro/p/the-venezuelan-oil-narative-is-pure
3. "If you want to know whether this is a real transition, look for measurable changes: generals rotated out, interior security restructured, ports and customs leadership replaced, and money flows brought above ground. If those don’t happen, then what’s being marketed as “liberation” is just succession with better optics.
That’s why, instead of watching the headlines and statements, we should watch who holds the interior ministry, the security forces, and the money. If those hands don’t change, then the country didn’t change—only the face on the poster did.
Capturing Maduro is a headline. The regime is an operating system. And operating systems don’t crash when one user logs out."
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/the-part-they-never-show-after-regime
4. "Denmark is a small nation of almost 6 million souls in a space of land about 2/3 the size of West Virginia. In the last year she finally started spending her fair share on defense, but even before then, she had been a solid ally. She already let us have bases in Greenland. If we need more we can sell the concept—along with Canada—as part of mutual defense. When it comes to keeping Russia and China at a distance, in backrooms we can work deals and twist Danish elbows. We won’t get all we want, but we should be able to get 80%. That’s good enough with friends.
I don’t get antagonizing the Danes like this. I think it is unnecessary and counterproductive. $0.02.
Yes, I would love to have American ownership of Greenland, but that isn’t a realistic option right now…especially after the last year. What we can have—if the Danes will let us—is an expanded presence on the island as needed."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/the-unfortunate-greenland-kerfuffle
5. "I especially struggle taking seriously the “modernity sucks” people who lay the blame on technology and seem to idolize the pre-industrial past. Modern technology is wonderful, and our current problems are not because of the machines, but in how we use them."
https://walkingtheworld.substack.com/p/modern-life-is-good-actually
6. The journey to AGI. A must watch documentary on Demis and Deepmind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d95J8yzvjbQ
7. "To be lethal, you need to be a modern renaissance man.
You need high standards for yourself & who you choose to have in your circle.
Non-negotiables that govern how you move through business, relationships, and life itself.
The character traits that command respect when you walk into a room; not because you’re the strongest, but because you’ve systematically engineered yourself into someone who cannot be ignored."
https://www.lethalgentleman.com/p/the-standards-of-a-lethal-gentleman
8. The rule of law to rule of code. Fascinating discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-S2P7dmjD0
9. Innovation happening in DoW. Important conversation here on DIU priorities.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Lfst-RXX9k
10. "Smart people in hard jobs with limited resources are doing their best to improve the odds in the place we have neglected almost as much as the Caribbean, the Pacific."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/the-pacifics-hubs-spokes-and-aces
11. "Across sleepy and remote islands in the Pacific, U.S. military engineers are working around the clock to revive strategically important airstrips that American troops first built under fire over 70 years ago during World War II.
The reconstruction effort is being led by a designated office within the U.S. Air Force, whose Agile Combat Employment, or ACE, doctrine has identified dozens of airfields that will be used to house and launch fighter jets, aerial refuelling tankers and weapons during a war with China. A trilateral force of the Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force is now converging with a single goal in mind: re-establish a presence on the airfields once used to deliver decisive combat power for the United States during the last great power war.
“I like to say we're going back to the future," Lt. Col Frank Blaz, a senior engineer and site lead for the Pacific Air Forces, said back in 2024. "As part of our Agile Combat Employment, we’ve taken a look at all of the historic airfields within the Pacific that helped us launch and execute successful campaigns. Building new is not the way to go. It’s expensive. Repairing and rehabilitating what exists is a much better economic solution.”
https://www.newsweek.com/inside-us-plans-to-reopen-wwii-air-bases-for-war-with-china-11286002
12. I always learn from his interviews. Lots of history and excellent thinking frameworks. A good state of Silicon Valley and AI right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRh2sVcNXQ8
13. "You’ll essentially confirm that you are now a man with free will. And that the job of a man is not an easy one. It doesn’t come easy. It has a ton of obstacles and preparations in place before you’re able to live life fully on your terms.
But that’s what makes it all that sweeter when you get even a taste of that freedom. And that is why you are blessed to be a man. Things don’t come easy to you. You are a hero in a movie. Starting out in the desert with little to your name, status, accomplishment, and abilities. But your dreams and the time to dream is unlimited."
https://www.rawmanifesto.com/p/how-to-live-a-fulfilled-life
14. Gzero and the top risks of 2026. If you don't pay attention to geopolitics you will get rekt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqVfnC_muaI&t=1224s
15. "The primary objective is geopolitical. It is the securitization of the U.S. backyard under Cold War 2.0 conditions.
The revived Monroe Doctrine does not represent a retreat from global confrontation or a downgrading of competition with China. On the contrary, it is a strategic consolidation phase designed to enable the United States to compete more effectively at the systemic level. America faces a two-front challenge. China functions as the trade, economic, and technological hegemonic rival. Russia operates as the military-revisionist spoiler willing to destabilize regions through force. Together, they form the DragonBear as a coordinated pressure system.
To succeed, Washington must prevent encirclement and strategic distraction in its own hemisphere. Monroe Doctrine 2.0 achieves precisely that by blocking China’s western flank and erecting an anti-China firewall.
History offers clarity. Russia did not refrain from invading Ukraine out of respect for international norms. China has not restrained itself on Taiwan due to diplomatic language. Deterrence is produced by strength and demonstrated willingness to act.
The CRINK axis has been constrained not by eloquent speeches, but by the use and demonstration of force. Middle powers such as India, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Brazil, Japan, and South Korea must internalize this shift. So must European powers. The world is becoming increasingly binary. The space for hedging is narrowing."
https://open.substack.com/pub/velinatchakarova/p/the-revival-of-monroe-doctrine-20
16. Surprisingly frank and human discussion on success, investing, hedge funds and managing people. And serving god.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlTYj9KNNZk
17. "His message was clear and sobering: The world has an insatiable thirst for metals, from surging military budgets to AI data centers and the greening of the global economy, but it does not have a credible way to supply the metals it intends to consume over the next few decades.
The United States is totally dependent on China for almost every critical mineral."
https://robertsinn.substack.com/p/billionaire-investor-robert-friedland
18. Incredible episode. Lots of insight here: be the best or you are toast. Whether going public, building cos or investing. Invisible unemployment is a real thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGii3mpwsNU
19. "it ain’t enough to simply want to survive, to want more for your people. it ain’t enough. your mind must focus in on what matters before nature and nature’s god: victory. victory is the only thing that matters. winning is the only rule found in nature. how far have our people fallen to the standards laid out by nietzsche in twilight of the idols? hell, let’s start with his first rule: “nobody must ‘let themselves go,’ not even when he is alone.” damn near everyone has already failed and we haven’t even gotten to the meat and potatoes of his aphorism.
unfortunately, it doesn’t get any better from there. “everything good is an inheritance.”
https://resavager.com/p/everything-good-is-an-inheritance
20. "If the US cannot continue on its current path without taking over much of the world’s largest fossil fuel reserves, and if China still needs access to those the same sources, the predictable result is that America’s energy adventurism will turn into an energy blockade on China, immediately reminiscent of the embargo on oil exports to Japan announced by the US on August 1, 1941. As a result, Japan lost access to nearly 90 percent of imported oil. Pearl Harbour followed later in the year."
https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/the-energy-wars-are-china-and-america
21. "One of the most consequential illusions of the post-Cold War era was the belief that economic interdependence would permanently discipline geopolitical competition. This assumption underpinned decades of policy choices, particularly in Europe, and shaped the integration of China into Western-led economic systems.
Between 2021 and 2026, this illusion collapsed. Globalization did not disappear, but it underwent a fundamental transformation. Interdependence was not dissolved; it was weaponized. The global system remains interconnected, yet those connections are no longer neutral or benign. They are assessed, managed, and exploited through a security lens.
Power in Cold War 2.0 is increasingly measured by the ability to control energy flows, maritime chokepoints, digital infrastructure, rare-earth and critical-mineral supply chains, food corridors, and financial clearing mechanisms. As a result, commerce, territory, and security have fused into a single strategic battlefield. Control over networks has become more consequential than control over land."
https://substack.com/inbox/post/183905750
22. "Everything we do, everything we rely on, the entire world we’ve built all depends on trust. It depends on relying on others, working with others, taking actions that benefit others. It depends on enforcement mechanisms to accompany the trust, but the enforcement mechanisms only matter if the trust exists to initiate the process.
That’s not what I’m seeing these days from our leaders on both sides of the aisle and across multiple sectors and in countless corners of society. If the world we live in ceases to function in the way we want, it’s not going to be because of artificial intelligence. It’s not because of illegal immigrants. It’s not because of the one percent. It’s because we stopped buying into the basic notion of trust.
Will I ever go back to that specific bar? I don’t know. I don’t go to bars that often. But either way, I like knowing it’s there if I happen to be in Miami. I like knowing I had a really good time and can go back there and do it again.
I like living in a world where we can build a whole that’s far, far greater than if we each just relied solely on our individual abilities to do everything. A world that advances, a world that evolves, a world that functions. A world that’s — sometimes — even happy. All because we choose to trust."
https://bradleytusk.substack.com/p/one-night-in-miami
23. "A continuing worry for a negative surprise for Japan in 2026 comes from China. Beijing’s failure to re-engage with America forces a rise in Chinese unemployment, more China deflation, more idle capacity and surging bad debt. China has been trying to stimulate growth by easing both monetary and fiscal policy since the summer of 2024.
If the economy does not respond and does not begin to accelerate by late spring 2026, currency devaluation may become its last option. China being forced to start a currency war by the compounding forces of domestic deflation and U.S. protectionism would force a dramatic disruption not just for Japan’s cyclical competitiveness, but for Japan’s future prosperity."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-surprises-2026
24. "The automation story has always been about per-unit economics. Robots cost more upfront, but the marginal cost of each widget collapses. We’ve had a century to get comfortable with that trade. Now the unit is “conversation that changes someone’s mind.” Same economics, same logic. Except the thing being produced at scale is persuasion."
https://www.gettheleverage.com/p/dude-i-just-fired-half-my-sales-team
25. I always get inspired by this. Obsessive craftsman is what I always take away from his talks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVdwU711kP0
26. State of investing in Private Markets, lots of good perspective from someone who has been doing this for a very long time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hW42EjOft40
27. "Now Venezuela is causing further conflict between Trump and the New Axis powers. The U.S. has been trying to interdict ships purportedly carrying weapons from Iran or Russia to Venezuela. Trump has been vocally insulting Russia since the raid, and demanding that Venezuela’s oil industry refuse to partner with China, Russia, and Iran.
Trump’s chaotic actions are thus throwing a wrench in the idea of a global right-wing concert of powers that divides the world into three authoritarian “spheres of influence”. And by injecting chaos and uncertainty, Trump might keep China’s plans for world domination off balance, buying crucial time for its moment of economic dominance to falter.
In the new, chaotic world, our hope has to be that the chaos happens to resolve itself to our benefit. That’s a thin reed to place our hopes on, but in the new geopolitical anarchy, and with America’s leadership and society being what they are right now, it’s probably the best we’ve got."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/welcome-to-chaos-world
28. "We can express all this in summary terms as follows. Organisations do not constitute themselves naturally from separate individuals. Organisations with any degree of complexity at all require purpose, effort and energy to put together in the first place. They then require further periodic inputs if they are to remain effective, because entropy ensures that, left to themselves, organisations will become less ordered and thus less capable over time. This is a natural process and not necessarily the fault of individuals, although they may make it worse or conversely help to slow it down.
Capable organisations have always known this. Emergency services don’t just write procedures, they should practice them frequently. Governments make and rehearse plans for dealing with unexpected crises. Military units are given special training before being sent on operations. If you go to a dangerous area of the world you may have to listen to a security briefing you’ve heard several times before, just to make sure that you remember it. And so on.
And if we are to seek a single dominant, immediate cause for the decline in politics and government in the western world over the last couple of generations, it is precisely that the natural tendency towards entropy has not been taken seriously. Indeed, as I shall try to show, everything has been done to increase entropy, sometimes through incompetence, sometimes through ideology, sometimes just by accident. And in turn, the ultimate causes of that are rather disturbing.
It’s this, more than anything else, that lies behind the shambles that is now the western military, and its inability to understand, let alone to imagine how to counter, what the Russians are doing in Ukraine The military is a very high-entropy organisation, and needs to practice not only skills but also the retention of its guiding mindset, quite regularly.
This is why regiments cultivate their history, and why naval vessels bear the same name through different generations. It reminds them who they are and why they exist. Western militaries have become largely dysfunctional not just for practical reasons (and here we may reflect that the consumption of ammunition and spares is a form of entropy that has to be allowed for, and it turns out it hasn’t been) but because no effort has been made to preserve this mindset: indeed, rather the reverse."
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/the-politics-of-destruction
29. Wide ranging convo as always, prediction markets to robotics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDVKaOENI_I
30. Great episode on very topical subjects in Silicon Valley: California wealth tax and software is not where it is at anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMEDrOnLAGM&list=RDDMEDrOnLAGM&start_radio=1
31. "Artificial intelligence has been a big help, yet the complex economic machine seems to be responding to the holistic strategy of tariffs, deregulation, lower interest rates, a return to QE, increased control of strategic assets on the geopolitical stage, and the deportation of illegal immigrants domestically.
But nothing says the economy can’t grow even faster.
Elon Musk is predicting GDP growth can reach 10% or higher. That seems unreasonable compared to historical norms, but I would not discount his view. The rise of AI has created an exponential growth scenario that could easily thrust the US into an ever-increasing growth trajectory."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-great-economic-boom-why-trumps
32. "If rare earths are the new oil, China is the new OPEC. Chinese mines supply nearly 70% of the ore from which rare earth elements are extracted, and more than 90% of the refined materials. Meanwhile, the U.S. imports 70% of its rare earths from China. This asymmetry is a strategic vulnerability. According to a 2025 report from the Center on Strategic and International Studies, China has demonstrated a willingness to “weaponize” rare earths.
In 2010, for example, China cut off rare earth exports to Japan over a maritime dispute, threatening to halt its automotive production. Japan responded by importing more rare earths from Australia in the short term and ramping up domestic production long term. Since then, Japanese rare earth imports from China have fallen from 90% to 60% — still too high, but low enough that Tokyo has options if Beijing restricts access. This week, China again banned the export of rare earths to Japan over its support for Taiwan, but, notably, the ban included a far broader category of goods, suggesting China’s rare earth leverage over Japan has weakened.
It’s a different story for the U.S. In April, China retaliated against Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs by restricting the export of seven types of rare earths. Trump folded, naturally, but even after reaching a deal in October to resume exports, the U.S. remains at China’s mercy. According to a recent Bloomberg report, continued restrictions on deliveries of raw materials “hamstring” U.S. efforts to build domestic rare earth processing capacity."
https://www.profgalloway.com/rare-earths/
33. "Elon didn’t go for batteries, EVs, and solar power because he was a climate-obsessed liberal; he correctly understood that there was a revolution underway in the technologies that humans use to produce, store, transport, and harness energy. He knew that whoever mastered that technological revolution would attain a dominant position in a bunch of different, seemingly unrelated industries.
In other words, Elon understood — and still understands — the importance of the Electric Tech Stack.
Currently, China generates much more electricity than the U.S. does — partly because it’s willing to build out solar power, where in the U.S. solar is often blocked by local NIMBYs, “environmental” permitting laws, and a hostile Trump administration. But China also builds most of the world’s batteries, meaning that American AI is going to be dependent on Chinese batteries as well.
On top of all that, America desperately needs the Electric Tech Stack for its national defense. I pointed this out in a post back in September, and Ryan talks about it a lot as well. Drones are taking over the modern battlefield, and drones require batteries and rare-earth electric motors — the same components that go into the EVs that America is now refusing to build.
Thus, America’s weakness in EVs, batteries, and rare earths threatens to become a weakness in everything — a weakness in AI, a weakness in drones, a weakness in robots, and so on. Because we collectively decided that EVs are hippie-dippy climate bullshit, we ignored the key physical technologies that increasingly underlie all of manufacturing, including defense manufacturing."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/america-must-embrace-the-electric
34. "There is tremendous reason for optimism. America leads in product and module design, and the upstream materials and device primitives we need are, for the most part, increasingly available. We also have the world’s deepest and most demanding consumer markets, and the brands best positioned to serve them. On paper, this should put the United States in a strong position. But in practice, closing the production gap will require a significant and durable shift to support an electronics ecosystem that now spans consumer products, industrial systems, and defense applications.
We may never match Shenzhen’s sheer density of low-cost suppliers. But software can help us stitch together a distributed manufacturing network of highly automated factories — not just to reshore high-volume production, but to continuously drive down the marginal cost of new product iteration. Without this, domestic manufacturing becomes increasingly static, bespoke, and expensive, while foreign competitors’ advantages compound through faster iteration.
At the same time, we must be careful about lax subsidies that merely entrench incumbents or suppress competition; industrial policy that rewards presence rather than world-class performance will create lethargic firms vulnerable to the hyper-competitive dynamics of Asian markets. Finally, we should be intentional about inviting firms to build their production ecosystems here to learn from. American firms repatriating capabilities offshored decades ago are not the same as foreign firms just extending theirs.
America started this race with the smartphone in all of our pockets. We built the blueprint for the consumer electronics revolution; others scaled it. The billionth unit is always better and cheaper than the first. The next decade will determine whether our ecosystem remains merely architects or becomes builders. That depends on whether we can manifest the industrial layer we left behind. We will do this not through nostalgia for the factories of the past, but through mastery of the production model of the future. America invented the smartphone. Now we need to learn its lesson: the future belongs to whoever can build it."
https://www.a16z.news/p/everything-is-computer
35. "Until recently, except for a handful of services firms, defense primes, and a few international spyware companies, few private commercial companies operated in the offensive cyber domain. Traditionally, U.S. government agencies charged with offensive cyber built most capabilities internally, turning to specialized firms and vulnerability brokers only on occasion.
However, this status quo is no longer sustainable: rapid private-sector breakthroughs in AI are fundamentally reshaping offensive cyber operations, and the expertise to harness these capabilities increasingly resides outside government, in AI-native companies. If the U.S. and its allies want to remain competitive in offensive cyber operations, they will need to explore how to use commercial technologies as force multipliers. Over the past few years several startups have emerged to bring commercial AI technology to U.S. and allied governments to accelerate their offensive cyber operations, and we are just at the beginning of this shift in the market."
https://maggiegray.us/p/the-age-of-ai-for-offensive-cyber
36. "First, a16z is founded and run by engineers. Not just founders, engineer-founders. This influences how they designed the Firm (to feast on scale and network effects), and also how they pick markets and the companies within them.
Second, there is perhaps no bigger investing sin at a16z than investing in second best. If you miss a winner early, you can always invest in a later round. If you invest in second best, you lock yourself out from investing in the winner. This is true even if the eventual winner isn’t yet born.
Third, once a16z believes it has identified the category winner, the classic a16z move is to give it more money than it thought it needed. Everyone makes fun of them for that move.
These three things have been true since the Firm’s earliest days.
a16z is a cult of technology. Everything it does is to bring about better technology to make the future better. It believes that “Technology is the glory of human ambition and achievement, the spearhead of progress, and the realization of our potential.” Everything flows from that. It believes in the future and bets the firm that way.
a16z is a Firm. It is a business, a company. It is built with the goal to scale, and to improve with scale. There are many characteristics of a Firm that I believe do not apply to a traditional Fund, and we will cover them. I think this distinction solves one of the oddest things about venture capital’s self-image: that venture capital is an industry that sells the world’s most scalable product (money) to its most scalable companies (technology startups) but must not, itself, scale.
a16z is a temporal sovereign. It is the institution for the future. The Firm, in its more ambitious moments, views itself as a peer to the world’s leading financial institutions and governments. It has said that it aims to be the (original) JP Morgan for the Information Age, but I think that undershoots the true ambition. If governments work on behalf of chunks of space, a16z works on behalf of that big chunk of time that is the future. Venture capital is simply the way that it’s found it can have the biggest impact on the future, and the business model most aligned with profiting when it does.
a16z makes and sells power. It builds its own power through scale, culture, network, organizational infrastructure, and success, and then gives its power to the technology startups in its portfolio through sales, marketing, hiring, and government relations, primarily, although to hear its founders tell it, a16z will do whatever is in its power to do, which seems to be a lot.
a16z is betting that technology will eat more and more of the economy, and that when it does, the new companies will be 10x, 100x bigger than the old ones they replace. That is a foundational one, but one that is available to any venture fund with some cajones.
a16z is betting that it can help make that future bigger and better than it would otherwise be, sooner, through policy and platform and power, and help its portfolio companies win in the process. Based on my conversations with a16z’s founders, this bet seems to be paying off today, and it is an unbelievably asymmetric one. Each win can pay for a lot of capabilities. The machine compounds."
Trade Routes & Chokepoints: A Neo-Mercantilist Deglobalized World
I’ve long enjoyed More or Less and it’s usually about tech and Silicon Valley. But in an episode, they introduced a very helpful concept for the new emerging geopolitical landscape. You can check out the episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWntiqnjXYc.
I warn you this is a long write up and I took plenty of quotations from this conversation. It was so good. Basically we should think about key countries and companies as Connectors on a trade route.
“Well, the private conference take was…..about the importance of trade routes and mercantalism 2.0. But the basic point is that if at the highest level like we kind of all grew up in a globalized world, right? And so frictionless global there are no trade routes like it's just global, right?
Like you can trade with anyone. All ports are open. We're moving into this world of trade routes that trade routes mattering. If you're the camel people who run a trade route that's super valuable. And I think the interesting thing on what these new trade routes are talking about in a world of low trust, high fakes and AI and lack of transparency and might is right power and things……you know there's going to be effectively the king of your world, you want to own a dominion right? Or the other way to be powerful is to sit on a trade route and control it, right? So, you know, famously Jerusalem was a really cool city back in the day. They didn't really make anything, but they sat on a really important trade route with some swords and could control the trade in the region, right?
And so in 2025, what are the trade routes? There's a trade route from New York finance to Silicon Valley Tech, right? That's a pretty robust one. There is a Silicon Valley tech to Tel Aviv route. Doesn't it go from Riyadh to Silicon Valley? There's absolutely, but this is a great example. Like Riyadh to Silicon Valley is an absolutely established trade route. And the people who control that deal. Where does Masa (Masa of Softbank) spend most of his time these days?”
A connector can be an individual as well too. Usually super influential people with massive personal brands. Masayoshi Son as mentioned. There is more to this and the following is a super long quote but it is worth reading to understand how to position yourself in the future.
”You've got the right narrative which is like it's not about an interconnected open world. It's about a series of trade routes and there are brokers or the key people who control those trade routes which are relationship based. You know the two counterparties to trust on either end.
And the point I was making about Sam Alman and Elon is if you really think what Elon's genius was, there's a few things he's amazing at. He's an incredible cult leader in technology. He always has been like the cult of Elon is strong. There are people who religiously believe in him for a whole bunch of reasons. That's very powerful. He's an incredible storyteller. It's just like he's incredibly good at attracting talent that will then do that. It's not like he's the engineer or all this stuff, right? But he's a great storyteller.
But one of the most important things that Elon has been able to do over the last many years across multiple companies, like his real genius, is matching enormous amounts of capital with technology companies, right? Like that's what he does. That's what the marketing genius is. And he's kind of like the exclusive brokers of “I need 10 billion dollars”, right?. And there's an exhibit A for this which is I I forget which lawsuit or leak had his text messages but there are in the public domain text messages between Elon and Michael Grimes then at Morgan Stanley, now in the US government. Elon and this one came up with Larry Ellison who's basically like “how much should I invest in X, a billion good?”
There's a lot of VCs like myself included who if you want to ship a million a few million bucks like that's fine. There's like tons of that. That's not like an exclusive trade route if you need a few million bucks from LPS, right? You know, the biggest capitalists that are pure capitalists, what we call capitalists in the world, have gotten really good at moving way more money. They're like heavy shipping containers full of money. But if you really wanted to move enormous amounts of money, right, like from the physical world and from, you know, asset managers and technology companies, you kind of had to call Elon, right?
And I think the animosity, if you think about who's been able to move money at scale from finance to tech at massive scale, it's Elon and now Sam, right? Sam is the other massive trade route person. And so I think the reality is who can move lots and lots of money from a finance zone into tech.
You know I'd argue that for instance….. Palmer Luckey is getting good at this too right? Like there's a bunch of people who are becoming really good at shipping money around to big tech. I'd argue that like for instance Josh Kushner is getting pretty good at this. But there's no one who can raise who can do it on the scale of Elon and Sam right now or at least demonstrating it.
So I think that's actually the real point of threat or the reason that there's probably so much animosity is they're just too similar in what their core skill set is which is marketing and trade route, right? Capital trade route.
I also just think it's like this is a model for how to think about lots of zones of power going forward. Like for instance, like I'm really bullish on the Tel Aviv Silicon Valley trade route, right? Think of them as trade routes versus just communities or cults or clubs or each of those things is its own community, right? Like they are their own communities. Like Tel Aviv is a community. Silicon Valley is a community. Again, in a free trade world, they all kind of intermingle. It's this globalized economy mental model, which is what we grew up with. I just think for lots of reasons, you're seeing a series of cults evolve across the world and it's just really valuable to be the translator or like the proxy between two cults that can't directly connect, right?
And so I just think that's really what's happening in the world, you know, shrunk to a pin head and was super globalized for a period. We're now kind of regionalizing, then you think about trade routes, you think about who sits on those trade routes, who brokers them. It's a very powerful position to be. The most famous example in history that I love is Squanto. Squanto had the greatest gig in history, right? Which is Squanto who happened to be the one Indian who could both talk to the pilgrims and the Indians because he had somehow ended up in London or something. I don't remember the history exactly, but he spoke English and the local languages. And the whole thing, if you read like the early pilgrim experience, is they're all like, "We have no idea if Squanto is lying to us or not. We don't know. We have to trust him, but like is that what they actually said? Is Squanto doing all these deals on the side for himself?"
But is this whole information asymmetry game connecting to disparate populations
that had to work together? Yeah, it was Squanto. So that's the most extreme version of that.”
So if you made it here, I think you get a better sense of how to operate and build power and wealth in the new multipolar world. A trade route is a good framework to see the world. Think trade routes and chokepoints. Similar to what control of Gibraltar, Singapore, Oman & Egypt were to the British Empire. Or how important advanced semiconductors, the Petrodollar and US Dollar itself is to the American Empire. All key chokepoints to control the world.
In this new world, you have to build a personal brand, network and build connections. Become a connector between regions. Become a connector between companies. Become a connector between people. Become a connector and a translator, bring legibility to opportunities. This has always been the case but probably more so now in this new world we are entering.
Life is Pain, So Choose Your Pain
During rest mode last year after another brutal year, I do what I do to relax. Go rewatch Yellowstone. Man that is one damn good tv series, except for the last season, what the heck happened there?
There is this scene when one of the cowboys leaves Yellowstone with his wife and he feels sad and guilty. His wife tells him: “It’s called life. Most of it hurts. That’s when something feels good. We have a frame of reference.”
How true this is. And I think our Western societal messaging has done us all a major disservice. We are taught to focus on being happy. That this is the ultimate goal of life. It took me a while to realize this is completely false and wrong.
The purpose of our life is to have an impact and accomplish things. Preferably in the service of others, whether family, friends, or the greater community. And like most things, this is hard. It’s painful and uncomfortable, most of the time. Perhaps this is why most people just give up in life.
They give up on themselves and their dreams and settle. Nothing worse than people who settle.
Don’t be these people. Choose your hard. Do things important and meaningful for you and your family. Expect things to be hard but have the mindset that you will do whatever it takes (legally and morally) to overcome these challenges. Pain always leads to growth. Adversity is the signal.
Glory and victory goes to those who endure.
Be a Hustler aka Be High Agency
I read Brian Morrisey of the Rebooting when I want to understand what is happening in the new media landscape. He gives some really good takes. If you want to understand where the business world is going, watch what happens in the media business world along with gaming to see the latest trends, tactics and impacts. They are literally on the bleeding edge.
Brian wrote in the Hustlers: https://www.therebooting.com/p/the-hustlers:
"The decentralized media landscape instead advantages hustlers because, like Sergey experienced in Russia in the 1990s, the system is breaking down. Volatility and crisis are uncomfortable for most, but for hustlers, it’s the gift of opportunity. In the early pandemic, I was told a smart piece of advice: It’s during crisis that the league tables change.”
Now beyond the pandemic, we have war in the Middle east, Europe and plenty of flashpoints in Latin America, Asia & Africa to boot. Massive economic challenges in the political West and geopolitical shifts everywhere. If this does not count as a polycrisis, not sure what would. It’s the time of the hustler. Why?
“Hustlers are built differently. They have the dog in them. They get to start. They have a strong bias to action. They’re enthusiastic sellers. They show up every day. They’re willing to do whatever it takes. The fashion media CEO who faked having an EA to make the status-conscious fashion people think he was more important than he was. The salesman who went top to bottom in a downtown skyscraper to sell copiers. Starting a business is hard. I used to misidentify these stories as the fripperies of the successful; I’ve come to realize they’re explanations.
Hustling is back now, only it's been rebranded as “high agency.”High agency is a way to turn a blind eye to the negative excesses that are part and parcel of hustling to focus solely on the positive. Being high agency means you are willing to take risks and to stand on your own. High agency people see problems as solvable."
Crisis always leads to massive opportunities. This is an opening for the tough, smart and prepared. Be high agency and get to work.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 22nd, 2026
Spring work is going on with joyful enthusiasm." - John Muir
"Luck can be engineered.
Leverage the internet (it’s the entire reason you’re reading this article).
Get out of your house & move molecules, paint shots and have conversations.
Constantly refine your skills, become a valuable member of society & give without expectation of return.
Enjoy high leisure activities, go on that ski trip, join that martial arts gym…
It’s impossible to not get closer to where you want to be by doing these 4 things."
https://www.lethalgentleman.com/p/how-to-create-luck
2. There is so much wisdom in this conversation. What all the best founders do in times of crisis and how to build culture from one of the best VCs on the planet at one of the best firms on the planet.
I learned a lot and will listen to this again for sure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91WKEsbHUNc
3. "Contrary to the common wisdom, what you see is that during the frontier stage in the US market, it was actually the easiest time to generate excess returns over the benchmark.
It became a little harder during the emerging market stage. Once you got into the developed stage, it became very hard to generate excess returns over the benchmark because the market has become so much more efficient.
Of course, if you look at the anecdotal evidence, it points to the same conclusion.
The frontier market stage in the US lasted up until about 1950, and it was what I would call the Benjamin Graham era. This is when Benjamin Graham devised his know-nothing, purely mechanical approach to investing, where he would just buy businesses that were trading at less than two-thirds of net working capital. That worked great for generating very good excess returns over the benchmark.
During the emerging market period from about 1950 to about 1990, those net working capital ideas – those easy Benjamin Graham bargains – would all disappear.
In emerging and frontier markets, it is critical to be able to switch between the markets because at any given time, there may only be one market that offers attractive investment opportunities. If your mandate ties you to a single market, then you're not going to be able to take advantage of that."
4. "My advice to entrepreneurs is simple: start writing. It does not have to be perfect. It does not have to be groundbreaking. It just has to be done. The more you write, the sharper your thinking becomes, and the stronger your speaking becomes. Writing and speaking reinforce each other, and entrepreneurs should invest in both."
https://davidcummings.org/2025/12/27/the-power-of-writing-before-you-speak/
5. Wide ranging conversation on global macro covering lots of ground: AI, the new PMI cycle leading to possible microcaps, industrials and commodities growth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E47xXJZHHgg&t=2127s
6. A really great conversation on global macro and late-cycle investment with my friend Nicolas. All with the underlying tech trend driving almost everything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOvgtjhxAFg
7. This is a must watch conversation on global macro. Bifurcation of the world and the end of the USD vs rise of BRICS. Fascinating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOW-oSruO80&t=899s
8. Lightspeed VC and how they are investing in the Age of AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0lZ3JdZw7s
9. I hate Microsoft products but they are an impressively powerful company. This is an interview with the man responsible for keeping Microsoft on top during the cloud platform shift and into the Age of AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2OPYYthw4c
10. Anduril is one of the most important companies in America. A true mission oriented company solving hard problems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GohWL9BlX3Q
11. "Our government looks functional. It has all the pageantry, pronouncements, and pomposity we’re used to, but it has none of the substance. Globalization hollowed out the nation-state after the Cold War, when the governing establishment shifted from orienting our decision-making around nationalism to one oriented by globalism.
-Instead of a nation, we became a democratic system — process without meaning.
-Instead of citizenship (its benefits and the obligations it demands in return), we became participants in the global economy, left to compete in it on our own.
-Instead of socioeconomic prosperity, we have choices (products and identities) and free online services.
Worse, as hollow states mature, they;
-Lose legitimacy because they don’t deliver meaningful services or security.
-Experience rampant looting (of society, the government, and the economy).
-This looting is dismissed as ‘just a cost of doing business,’ not a sign of failure.
-Devolve into a mechanism for forcibly extracting wealth from what remains of the country (or borrowing against it), and then transferring it to networks of connected globalized insiders (socialism for the greedy)."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/the-sack-of-america
12. "As a result, vintage buying has almost turned into an extreme sport—with consumers pulling out all the stops to acquire special items. Many are now accessing the vintage apparel market in Japan, where collectors have amassed classic American items no longer available in the US.
This is much more than nostalgia.
New stuff is so poorly made that I’m now increasingly buying old items for my own use, and not only as gifts. The quality coming from the large online retailers is abysmal, and my safest bet is often secondhand.
I’ve been burned too many times. In the last couple years, I’ve bought at least a dozen items online that were absolutely worthless. In some instances, the products were just scams—cheap garbage that didn’t come close to matching the online descriptions."
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/why-secondhand-is-now-better-than
13. Always good takes. Somewhat grim take on the West but he is not wrong here sadly. We aren't mark-to-market right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3B8xqsf66w&t=3s
14. "When I sent the first ‘cashtag’ ticker message to Fred Wilson from my Blackberry back in 2007 - ‘I love $RIMM’ - I had no inkling of the degenerate economy. My inkling was that the walls of institutions and markets were coming down. I was all in on the ‘real-time’ trend that I saw Twitter tipping us towards.
Twitter does not own real time anymore! Trump, The White House and the people in this orbit define true real time from Truth Social. We live now in a ‘post real time world’ of decentralized inside information and escalating greed (everyman for himself).
If I were to sum up the year 2025 and the degenerate economy- leaving out war and politics - it would be space, grift, everyman for himself, tariffs/inflation and prediction markets."
15. My recommendation is simple: send a weekly or monthly update email. Include anecdotes, metrics, projects, and the things you need help with. Make it a habit, and make sure your audience receives it at the same time every week or month.
https://davidcummings.org/2026/01/03/1-advice-for-an-entrepreneur-in-the-new-year/
16. "The level of attention and hyper focus is what allows you to do more in 1 week than most men get done in a single month.
The rules of time do not apply to you.
The formula is not complicated, in fact there competition is embarrassingly low.
If you develop an attention to detail, you will absolutely smoke your competition.
It’s time to start overdoing things. Being unnecessarily professional.
Impress people with the way you carry yourself.
Dress sharp, be meticulous with your craft.
Unreasonable hospitality. Unreasonable standards. Unreasonable precision."
https://www.lethalgentleman.com/p/why-you-shouldnt-go-the-extra-mile
17. "You are paying a “Proximity Tax” every single day, and you likely aren’t even tracking the expense. When you spend time with people who have low standards, reactive mindsets, or a thirst for cheap status, their energy functions like a subtle cognitive drain. You start to adopt their vocabulary, their anxieties, and their limitations. You cannot build a sovereign, high-leverage life while anchored to a peer group that finds comfort in the status quo."
https://substack.com/home/post/p-183452139
18. "People talk about luck in two ways: either success is all skill, or it’s all pure chance. I typically hear arguments on those two sides: the meritocratic ideal (success is the result of talent and effort) or the fatalistic view (outcomes are just chance).
I find that both perspectives miss something important. They miss the real story: what you do matters, and so does the environment you’re operating in.
I like to think there’s a little bit more to luck than pure randomness. More often, luck shows up because your habits and choices put you in its path. Many years ago, I came across this concept of “luck surface area”1 by Jason Roberts. The larger that surface, the more likely a lucky break has somewhere to land and stick."
https://www.polymathinvestor.com/p/the-luck-field-manual-rules-for-engineering
19. The godfather of global liquidity. Good global macro conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIDCDKUCtg4
20. What a fascinating conversation on building the future. Supersonic planes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwaoUyaUM6s&t=4862s
21. A16Z's takes on Consumer AI. Super interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4-7x6QiYr0
22. So much gold if you are thinking about your career. Gokul is one of the top product leaders in Silicon Valley and an incredible angel investor.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPpOtwUesnk
23. "A rise in nominal GDP boosts financial asset prices, and rich folks will dutifully pay their bribes - cough cough, campaign donations to Team Red to giveth thanks. But in America, it’s one human, one vote, and the plebes can easily derail the party if a rise in inflation accompanies a rise in nominal GDP. Trump and US Treasury Secretary Buffalo Bill Bessent said they would run the economy hot, and I believe them, but how will they keep inflation in check? The inflation that torpedoes re-election odds is of the food and energy variety. The key metric for Americans is the price of gasoline, as there is scant usable, affordable public transportation available for most folks. You cannot exist as a proletariat worker in America without a set of wheels, unfortunately. And therefore, Trump and his lieutenants colonized Venezuela for its oil.
When talking about Venezuelan oil, many are quick to point out that the country has the world’s largest proven reserves. But who cares how much oil you have in the ground. The question is, can one extract the oil from the ground profitably? I don’t know the answer to this question, but Trump obviously believes that if he turns on the tap, oil will gush forth from Venezuela into the Gulf of Mexico refineries, and cheap gasoline will placate the plebes by tamping down energy inflation. I can’t opine whether Trump is correct, but the WTI and Brent crude oil markets will be the truth serum. As nominal GDP and dollar credit supply rise, do oil prices rise or fall? Team Blue Democrats will win if GDP and oil prices rise together, and Team Red Republicans will win if GDP rises but oil prices flatline or fall.
Taking Trump and his lieutenants at their word, we know credit will expand. The Team Red Republican legislators will deficit spend, Buffalo Bill Bessent’s Treasury Department will issue debt to fund it, and beta cuck towel bitch boy Jerome Powell and his successor’s Fed will print money to buy the bonds. This circle jerk started in earnest in 2008, and as Lyn Alden says, “Nothing stops this train”. As the amount of dollars expands, the price of Bitcoin and certain cryptos will sky rocket."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/suavemente
24. The Network State meets the Longevity State.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJcxQQ0GzyI
25. Alt-Geopolitics. Crazy stuff but good to bend your brain sometimes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNSZBi3__h0
26. "People hate feeling personal power of other humans
No, they HATE it. They hate it, hate it, hate it, and hate it absolutely
Nothing triggers their wrath, nothing triggers their envy, and nothing makes them more depressed then being subject to the personal, arbitrary whim of someone else
That makes power something you have to hide, something you have to disguise, something you have to absolutely deny existing
Rulers of the past, kings of the past, and - last but not least - dictators of the past knew that, and worked hard to avoid any appearance of arbitrariness in their actions. No, it’s not my personal whim. It is not even my personal decision. I am merely an instrument, a tool executing the will of someone else, absolutely constrained in my actions - by this external authority.
Denying that you have any personal power at all is lindy
Loudly proclaiming that you do, is not"
https://kamilkazani.substack.com/p/might-makes-right
27. "The US went in, took out Maduro and the whole fiasco was done in under a few hours. This was despite having backing with China/Russia. The conclusion should be pretty simple: USA military/defense/technology is far and away the best.
If someone says it was an “inside job” that’s still not a good answer. It means that no one was able to figure out the CIA. If it was brute force. Then that’s also not a good answer. Both answers lead to the same conclusion = never bet against America long-term.
If you can’t make it here, you can’t make it anywhere. Still rings true today. Even more so. Your long-term investments in the US are safe!
Rare earth minerals in US control now. If you look back at the Russia Ukraine battle, the USA stepping in had nothing to do with Ukraine (cynical view). In the end, all the money we lent them just came back in a payment of rare earth minerals. For those that forgot (source). Unsurprisingly, this wasn’t paraded around the Television as much (since it was the real value)
Click fast forward and while everyone will show you the chart of the oil reserves that Venezuela has, that’s just to distract people from everything else of value.
Ignore all the noise around Oil. It’s first order thinking. If your grandparents know that Venezuela has oil then there is no real alpha there. Nothing novel. Then your parents can probably logically solve that “Caracas will be rebuilt”. Some value there but then go ask “who will build it” suddenly… you’ll get crickets.
GRID will get you a stable return on infrastructure build out both in the USA and in places like Venezuela and your job is to add a function to narrow that 100 company list down.
Hilariously, while everyone talks about oil, this is just the 1,000th reason to be long tech and US tech in particular."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/second-order-ideas-venezuela-and
28. "Attention, as important as it seems at the moment, is becoming less valuable than legibility. Legibility is, in literal terms, the ease with which a reader can decode symbols. In culture, it is a measure of the permeability of communication. It is the ability to discern meaning.
Legibility is the top cultural currency. Algorithms command attention, but they do not command legibility.
Job of brands is to make their products legible."
https://andjelicaaa.substack.com/p/the-legibility-economy
29. "So the good people who actually make the technology we use every day, the real innovators and creators and designers, are reacting to the unprecedented disconnect between the contemporary tech industry and the fundamentals that drew so many people toward it in the first place. Many of the biggest companies have abandoned the basic principle of making technology that actually works. So many new products fail to deliver on even the basic capabilities that the companies are promising that they will provide.
Many leaders at these companies have run full speed towards moral and social cowardice, abandoning their employees and customers to embrace rank hatred and discrimination in ways that they pretended to be fighting against just a few years ago. Meanwhile, unchecked consolidation has left markets wildly uncompetitive, leaving consumers suffering from the effects of categories without any competition or investment — which we know now as “enshittification”. And the full-scale shift into corruption and crony capitalism means that winners in business are decided by whoever is shameless enough to offer the biggest bribes and debase themselves with the most humiliating display of groveling. It’s a depressing shift for people who, earlier in their careers, often actually were part of inventing the future."
https://www.anildash.com/2026/01/05/a-tech-career-in-2026/
30. I'm a fan of Waltz, one of the few politicians I respect. Incredible patriot and SOF military veteran. Very topical.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbjZ9_QxLsU
31. "In the early 2020s, plots are dumbed down to be more “scrolling-friendly,” it’s no coincidence the most highly regarded film of 2025 (Frankenstein) and the most highly anticipated film of 2026 (Wuthering Heights) are both 300 page novels from the Romantic Period covering deep topics like unchecked ambition (playing God), isolation and the need for connection, and what it truly means to be human or a monster. All themes that are just as relevant today as they were over two hundred years ago.
In the era of AI-generated everything, the most memorable performances involve a more comprehensive approach to the process. The ten to eleven hour physical transformation, 42 pieces of prosthetics, unlearning how we move as humans and reconstructing a new physicality through butoh, the Japanese art form to develop a uniquely grotesque, yet beautiful movements. We are truly discovering what it means to be alive."
https://brianne.substack.com/p/why-everything-will-be-romantic-in
32. "Will Venezuela become the next failed state or the next Panama? Who’s to say, but with Imperial rhetoric and being resource rich, it is more likely to be a success story than still be some backwater hellhole in a few decades.
What it also shows us is that Russia and China may not be the adversaries the West fears. China and Russia were powerless to stop America’s reach. Whether they had advanced knowledge is another question. Because if they didn’t that is also quite telling.
But no, this isn’t some death-nail to the idea of multipolarity.
Far from it.
The Petrodollar/Eurodollar system is still teetering. Bitcoin and Crypto still lurk in the shadows. And WMDs become more prevalent and available by the day.
In a Multipolar System, Power is the only thing that matters.
And America still has alot of Power."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/the-maduro-doctrine
33. "Regardless of how broken it may seem, you don’t need to fix the world. You need to know your neighbors. Take the time to talk with them, even when you’re tired. Offer to help when you can and listen without rushing to argue. We can respect differences without allowing them to divide us.
The health of society is not built in grand gestures or viral moments, despite what we may see on social media. Rather, it is built quietly on front porches, driveways, yards, and sidewalks.
If you want to change the world, start with the people who live next door and be a good neighbor."
https://thewaysofagentleman.substack.com/p/were-trying-to-change-the-world-while
34. "In the next year, we’re entering a different era: AI products are growing revenue at astounding rates—no-code app builder Lovable generated $100 million in annual recurring revenue in eight months. The Swedish company uses a credit-based pricing system for consumers, and some usage-based pricing for backend services like hosting. The successful AI companies will be the ones whose pricing model aligns engineering with user value.
In the next decade, we’ll look back to today—when AI forced SaaS to reckon with real marginal costs—as the moment when pricing became hard again, which made the software business honest again. The survivors will succeed because their product andpricing models worked.
Companies that embrace this complexity as a design problem, not just a finance problem, will build products that earn margins, support sustainable growth, and beat competitors in the long run—instead of becoming another example like MoviePass."
https://every.to/p/how-ai-made-pricing-hard-again
35. "The reality is nuanced. Europe is now two distinct systems operating under the same institutional umbrella.
Hard for building companies from within. Bureaucracy, regulation, friction remain. The barriers to entrepreneurship haven’t disappeared. Labor laws are restrictive. Regulatory compliance is expensive. Innovation moves slower than in the US or parts of Asia.
But great for personal life while building value globally or online. Tax frameworks specifically reward external income. EU mobility offers unprecedented geographic flexibility. Quality of life in cities like Milan, Lisbon, or Athens rivals anywhere in the world.
We look forward to Europe becoming competitive for building. The demographic crisis, the tech gap, the innovation deficit need solving. In the meantime, this two-speed setup is the way.
Live in Europe. Build globally. Optimize both."
https://palombo.substack.com/p/the-10-year-european-comeback
36. Implications of a new multipolar world. What markets are missing: Resilience and redundancy will be the focus for countries and investors.
Wicked
I kind of watched this movie series backwards but it was okay. After watching Wicked for Good (number 2), my daughter hectored me to go watch number 1. It definitely would have helped to watch this earlier as Wicked for Good would have made way more sense. Goes to show you sequencing is important.
For those who don’t know, “Wicked” & “Wicked for Good” is the backstory to the Wizard of Oz, when Glinda the good witch meets Elphaba aka the Wicked Witch of the West and their unlikely friendship. It's surprisingly well done. A twist to an old classic tale.
I enjoyed both the movies. Very entertaining. Also educational. Especially the scene with Doctor Dillamond, the talking goat at Shiz University, yes, it sounds weird hence why you should watch the movie. Dillamond is the history professor who explains why studying history is important. “Because we cannot escape the past and we ignore it at our own peril. Because the past helps explain our present circumstances.” I love history and I love studying it. I would be a professor if I had not caught the business and capitalism bug. It’s been incredibly helpful for my career and super helpful for global macro investing too. Sadly, it seems too few our leaders have studied it and we are repeating the mistake of fallen powers and empires now. Again.
Hard times are coming. We see it in the stats. We feel it around us, the tension, the desperation. Especially in America. Most people are in survival mode. I am deeply concerned as bad things happen during these times. As Dillamond explained why his people were slowly wiped out or forced away. “Food grew scarce. And when people are hungry and angry. They begin to look for someone to blame.” It's easy to blame those who look and sound different than we are. Especially easy in a heterogeneous society like America full of immigrants and people from everywhere.
All political leaders know this. And they use it. As the Wizard of Oz said: “When I first got here, there was discord, there was discontent. And back from where I come from, everybody knows, the best way to bring folks together is to give them a real good enemy.”
As we see in the movie and in real life, kids are mean. I know. I grew up as a minority in Canada. Adults are mean too. Especially to those different to them. People are cowards. Elphaba uses her rage from all the hate she gets from the community and this allows her to tap into her powers. “No one should be scorned, or laughed at. Or looked down upon…..” I get it. But if you can overcome this, as her friend Glinda tells her, and it is good advice for us all: “You can do this. You can do anything.”
Elphie sings: “I’m through with playing by the rules of someone else’s game. Too late for second guessing. Too late to go back to sleep. It’s time to trust my instincts.”
I truly hope we rise above all the anger and challenges we face. America and any country is almost unstoppable when they come together. They fail horrifically when this doesn’t happen. This is the big lesson from history we’ve seen over and over. Unity in family, unity in community, unity in country. “Once you learn to harness your emotion, the sky's the limit.”
Avoid Boring People: How to Be Interesting
The sense I get of young kids these days is that they are incredibly risk averse. They don’t travel, they do what everyone else is doing. They optimize for optionality and yet don’t do anything original. What got me thinking about this was a Tweet I saw: https://x.com/mageeclegg/status/1992957732991721888
“I got a friend in San Francisco…
She says she went on 10 dates this year… Every guy was the same: • Software engineer • Patagonia vest • Mountain-biking addiction • Talks AI, crypto, and “safe long-term index investing” • Thinks Donald Trump is ruining the world.”
This is the case in NYC with Finance bros. Los Angeles with the Hollywood bros. People who literally are exactly alike in their ecosystem. But Magee the author of the tweet has a recommendation.
“Don’t be this guy. If you’re this unoriginal and want to change that…
Here’s what you should do before your next date:
• Take the Trans-Siberian Express from Ulaanbaatar to Moscow… drink warm vodka, eat pickles straight from the jar, and arm-wrestle Russians who size you up like an enemy agent.
• Fly to Buenos Aires… eat steak, drink Malbec, dance tango, and don’t come home until you’ve learned Spanish in a woman’s bed.
• Hike the cliffs of Cinque Terre… swim at sunrise and drink rough wine with old fishermen who’ve outlived storms and stories you can’t imagine.
• Take a train from India’s southern tip to Varanasi… stand on the ghats at dawn as bodies burn on the Ganges and feel the heat of a world older than anything you’ve known.
Go live a life worth living…
There’s so much out there waiting to shape you. And one day you’ll find yourself sitting across from a beautiful woman… and you won’t be digging through your mind for something interesting to say. You’ll simply be interesting.”
I’d add, join the French or Ukrainian Foreign Legion. Take Muay Thai fight training in Thailand. Walk the Kumano Kodo trail in Japan and El Camino de Santiago Walk. Ride a motorbike across South America. Join the “Centurion Club” which is someone who visits 100 countries in the world. Have random and obscure hobbies. Collect and read old books. Lots of them.
Basically do something unique. Follow your curiosity. Be original. Be interesting. Live.
Giving Grace
I was going to take my daughter to her hip hop dance session one dark winter night. I thought I was locked in but as I was pulling out of the driveway, I almost ran into a father and his kid walking on the sidewalk. He was furious, visibly furious and rightfully. And I felt terrible because it was clearly on me, I wasn’t paying full attention. I mean, if it happened to me while walking my kid, I probably would have stormed over and well, at minimum got into a screaming match, at worst inflicted some extreme violence on him. I have a continuing battle with anger management.
So what do I take from this? Well one, self driving cars just can’t come quickly enough. Humans, even the most careful ones, are just too distracted & error prone these days.
The second thing, as the bible says, “Do not judge, lest you be judged.” Incredibly wise words. Fix yourself first. I tend to get enraged when I see people driving badly, not paying attention, doing weird dumb things in their car. The car is a weapon and very dangerous if you let it be. But we are human and mistakes happen. And I need to learn to be more tolerant, less judgemental to say the least.
I need to learn to give more grace to people. Everyone is literally fighting battles in their head these days. I feel the stress and tension in people around me, people are really struggling, especially in America it seems. God knows how rough the last few years have been personally. So be kinder than you need to be. We can all do with a bit more kindness and grace in our lives.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 15th, 2026
"In seed time learn, in harvest teach, in winter enjoy" –William Blake
One of the more original thinkers in venture capital. A wide ranging discussion on investing & building frameworks with Chris Paik. Recommend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFA_iiEtm_8
2. "My fourth lesson of the year is that gambling is America’s favorite activity. We had an explosion of examples throughout the year. Zero day options are dominating the market. Levered ETFs with 3x or 5x leverage continue to be launched on single name stocks. Sports gambling has been sweeping the nation. And prediction markets have pulled off the greatest rebrand of all time by convincing people they are predicting the future rather than gambling on the weather, the color of someone’s tie, or whether an active shooter is going to be caught in the first 48 hours.
I don’t claim some moral high ground because I believe that all financial markets are speculation, which is just a fancy way to describe gambling. If you buy stocks, you are ultimately gambling. If you buy options, you are gambling. If you buy cryptocurrency, you are gambling. It is just that these investment related activities have much better odds of success than buying a lottery ticket, sitting at a blackjack table, or letting a triple parlay fly on NFL Sunday.
Lesson: America is addicted to gambling. Choose your form of gambling wisely."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/5-lessons-i-learned-in-2025
3. "If it were just a matter of maximizing shareholder value, most people could probably still make sense of it. But something stranger happens as the revolution fully unfolds: managers mysteriously stop caring about profits. The last decade offers countless examples of studios setting money on fire as they reboot beloved franchises in the image and likeness of social justice zealots—gender-swapping, race-swapping, and generally making expensive productions that nobody wants to see.
This too is tied to managerialism. As James Burnham observed, a defining feature of this system is the separation of ownership and control, which means the people making decisions want different things than the ones who actually have skin in the game. The rift between them grows over the years. Managerials ultimately aim to serve the interests of the managerial class, to signal virtue to other managerials, to get high on the resulting fumes of status and acclaim and applause. And they cover each other’s backs so well that their fellows rarely have to suffer consequences for disastrous decisions. Always remember that the woman who lost $1.4B for Anheuser-Busch by hiring the trans-icon Dylan Mulvaney landed on her feet quite nicely with a gig at LIV Golf. Just one example."
https://thechivalryguild.substack.com/p/why-heroic-movies-arent-happening
4. "Three years ago, I praised the new boss at Barnes & Noble—a man named James Daunt who actually loves books. Back then, he was already infusing new life in the struggling company, and I predicted good things to come.
They have now arrived in full force.
Barnes & Noble opened 57 new stores in 2024 and 58 in 2025. Plans are afoot to open 60 more stores in 2026, and list the company on the stock exchange.
This is a remarkable achievement. It’s happening in the face of eroding reading skills and the replacement of leisure reading with online distractions. Reading for pleasure is down 40% but Barnes & Noble is growing steadily. James Daunt must be some kind of culture superhero to succeed in this environment."
https://www.honest-broker.com/p/the-surprising-return-of-the-bookstore
5. Lots of great predictions in tech for 2026. Very good takes here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehO3wIio7Nw&list=PLI0_clHshGZctchZkfCXmz7SPyuBSOoq1
6. "OpenAI is promising Oracle $300 billion — money it doesn’t have — for infrastructure Oracle hasn’t built. We can’t see the actual contract, but this is BS. The greatest AI hallucination yet is the assumption that in the next few years we’re going to build anywhere near the required grid and power capacity.
OpenAI needs 20% of current U.S. electric capacity — equivalent to 250 nuclear power plants — at a cost of $10 trillion. There’s a five- to eight-year wait to connect a new data center to the grid. Meanwhile, China has more than twice America’s energy capacity at half the cost. Second greatest AI hallucination? Job creation. The average number of full-time employees at a data center is equivalent to the number of people working at two Applebee’s."
https://www.profgalloway.com/2026-predictions/
7. "RMP is a new acronym that entered my Love Language dictionary on December 10th, the day of the most recent Fed meeting.[1] Immediately, I recognized it, understood its meaning, and treasured it like my long-lost love, QE. I love QE because it means money printing, and thankfully I own financial assets like gold, gold/silver mining stocks, and Bitcoin that rise faster than the pace of fiat money creation. But it’s not all about me. If money printing in all its forms drives the price and adoption of Bitcoin and decentralized public blockchains higher, then hopefully one day we can discard this filthy fiat fractional reserve system and replace it with one powered by honest money.
We aren’t there yet. But the rapture quickens with every unit of fiat created.
Unfortunately, in the here and now for most of humanity, money printing destroys their dignity as productive humans. When the government intentionally debases the currency, it destroys the link between energy inputs and economic outputs. Knowing no fancy economic theories that explain why they feel like they are running in quicksand, those wage cucking plebes understand that money printing is no bueno. In democratic systems of one human, one vote, the plebes vote out the incumbent party when inflation surges. In autocratic systems, the plebes enter the streets and topple the regime.
Therefore, politicians know that ruling in an inflationary environment is a death sentence for their careers. However, the only politically palatable way to pay for the massive amount of global debt is to inflate it away. Given that inflation destroys political careers and dynasties, the skill is hoodwinking plebes into believing that the inflation they feel isn’t inflation at all. Therefore, central bankers and finance ministers roll out a cauldron of bubbling ghoulish acronyms to obfuscate the inflation they hoist upon the public in order to forestall the inevitable systemic deflationary collapse.
If you wanted to be rich in the age of Pax Americana QE, you needed to own financial assets."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/love-language
8. "Fifteen minutes from start to finish, after a couple of months of research, I had a complete, professional-looking slide deck that was consistent, visually engaging, and ready to present.
Try it yourself. You’ll be blown away. We’re entering a new era, and this simple workflow is just one example of how dramatically the way we work is changing."
9. Bitcoin Standard meets the Network States. Fascinating albeit pessimistic conversation on the West but optimistic on the future of decentralization.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ac_JRmIwnQI&t=114s
10. Choice over voice. Vote with your money and vote with your feet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CSAdQw3QHc
11. "To avoid any misunderstanding, here is what I am saying: The compute power that is being brought to market is beyond what the market currently needs.
This scenario is a textbook boom-bust example of supply and demand economics.
In this AI season, there have already been booms in multiple different tech companies… they’re still booming. Meanwhile, the busts have been everywhere as seen by the underperformance of nearly the entire market beyond the Mag 7 (or whatever they’re called now).
Companies and industries that have been historically bogged down in process and/or data minutiae are about to be completely transformed for the better. These are the same companies that have been recently underperforming."
https://codyshirk.com/ai-fantasy-season/
12. "What I see here though is a huge PR campaign against immobilisation by Russia, its friends and agents in the West, and the big business that made bad investment calls in Russia, have assets stranded and now wants a Western tax payer bailout. That’s the real rub. And where are these business interests strongest - Belgium, Austria, and Italy."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-educating-the-ft
13. "For decades, roll-ups sat squarely in the domain of private equity and search funds. These strategies depended on predictable cash flows, margin expansion, and the disciplined application of an operating playbook—none of which fit neatly into the traditional venture toolbox. But a quiet shift is underway. AI is collapsing the cost structure of integration and making once-specialized operational capabilities accessible to lighter, faster teams.
This change opens a narrow—but meaningful—window for something new: venture-style roll-ups. The model isn’t for everyone. Most attempts will struggle under the weight of integration complexity and shifting incentives – and won’t turn out to be venture sized outcomes. Yet for the 1% that get the structure, timing, and strategy right, the return profile can be extraordinary."
https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/the-venture-case-for-some-ai-powered
14. "When Napoleon lost a battle, he immediately began rebuilding bridges, restoring logistics, and preparing his next move. He understood that a loss is only fatal if it compromises your ability to fight the next battle. The priority after defeat is to ensure that the vulnerability will not be exploited again.
You must be a fucking machine. You do not seek redemption. You do not seek revenge. You don’t cope or seethe. You repair and rebuild the infrastructure that prevent this mistake from happening ever again. Every defeat you survive becomes a moat in your system, one that new entrants will have to learn on their own terms.
Losses like this are what build a man. Be grateful for them. It happened for a reason. It is now your responsibility to ensure it never happens again.
These things are difficult because once you find the correct orientation, compounding to infinite wealth becomes inevitable."
https://www.scimitar.capital/p/dealing-with-loss
15. "Which brings us back to Sony’s acquisition of the Peanuts. The specific entities involved are Sony Pictures Entertainment and Sony Music Entertainment, which are sort of like products in search of stories in their own right. Peanuts gives those stories to them.
We do not know what this portends for Sanrio, who has so carefully tended the franchise in Japan all of these decades. (Personally, I think Sony would be nuts to throw all that expertise out the window, but who knows.) The irony is that most of us consume Peanuts in a very Sanrio-esque way these days, which is to say bereft of narrative. I can’t recall the last time I read a Peanuts comic, but I see the characters everywhere on clothing and all sorts of products. Perhaps that’s exactly why Americans are greeting Sony’s acquisition of Peanuts with a collective shrug: it has already been Sanrio-ized. As have all of us, in a sense.
So what better steward of America’s cutest cast of characters than the Japanese?"
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/sony-goes-for-peanuts
16. "For the past year, I’ve been running a daily live talk show about technology and business called TBPN. It’s a bit of an outlier in the media world, as — it’s more like a daytime TV show than a weekly podcast. It’s three hours long, so in a single week I’m on-air for about 15 hours. It’s a lot of content, and it’s forced me to have a very consistent daily routine, which I thought I’d share with you today.
People often ask how I go live for three hours every day. The truth of it is that I just started doing it, built up the muscle memory, and got to a place where it’s become routine."
https://arenamag.com/articles/life-of-coogan
17. "These gains would be eclipsed the following year when the geopolitical fall out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity markets into another panic. European nations, fearing their people would be unable to heat their homes in winter and their economies would crater without Russian oil and gas, aggressively bought alternative supply from traders. A Financial Times analysis showed the commodity trading industry combined for $148 billion in profits in 2022.
A little over 10% of these profits went to Vitol alone, most of which was distributed to the company’s 400 partners. The boom continued into 2023, with the top five houses combining for $1.1 trillion in revenue, with the companies supplying ~24% of global oil supply and controlling 32% of global seaborne oil trade. For perspective, this figure would place the companies behind only China, the U.S., and Germany in a ranking of the world’s largest exporters.
Despite the scale of their operations, few people have heard of the trading houses. This is deliberate. The trading houses are mostly private opaque companies based in Switzerland and do not want their operations scrutinized.
The story of how a group of obscure companies came to play such an outsized role in the functioning of the global energy system dates back to the aftermath of World War II when the great powers became locked in a secret war for control of the world’s natural resources."
https://arenamag.com/articles/black-gold-and-grey-markets
18. So many lessons from the Cold War and why Russia lost. So worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdkpWrlR5zg&t=990s
19. Truebridge is on the top LPs in Venture, so this conversation was quite helpful. Brands matter in venture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzDcZ4HYBLQ
20. Lots of good pricing frameworks here for AI and software companies.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtWnMuCtZH0
21. Costs of capital going up and hence, liquidity will go down. Impact on tech?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KFs-dxdRlw
22. The fractal frontier. Decentralization is here. An important conversation to understand what is happening in America and the world right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ca7vMbFjOk&t=1969s
23. Net net: own assets. The Gov't/Elites will not let the stock market go down. Wall Street over Main Street. Don't like it but here we are. Neo-Feudalism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRlUtcpDonU
24. Doing simple things obsessively forever. This is how you get great at something. Anything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4phnt497NQ
25. How to be a deep value investor. Bullish on energy (for the long run ie. more than a few years).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfYdVPtc5f0
26. The OG of seed investing: Jeff Clavier. This was incredibly instructive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiDVAbCMQ80
27. The best weekly show in tech right now. Lots of good predictions for 2026 and learnings from 2025 in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39uduGOufNA&t=3s
28. Lots of stuff going on in Europe. Nuclear coming back to the continent, Poland is well set for this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95dQrIcdCxk
29. Anyone who cares about the US economy and global macro in general, this is a helpful conversation to get a sense of what the future holds for investors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0GuHkUbuEY&t=9s
30. Louis Gave is based in HK so not surprised he is a China bull. But he makes a strong case for it though. Helps to get out of the America-centric cope bubble. We are really behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRoG7wnEp4w
31. Former Army Pacific Chief. This was a very helpful and insightful conversation on what is the most critical region in the world and what the strategy is.
America's new policy will be: help those who help themselves (minus the diplomatic tone for better or worse).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VMn2GhOx1g
32. "The phrase was “sole-source.”
The Defense Logistics Agency, the Pentagon’s procurement arm responsible for ensuring American forces can fight and win wars, had just awarded a $245 million contract to supply antimony ingots for the National Defense Stockpile. The contract was not competitive. There was no bidding process. There were no alternative suppliers evaluated and rejected on merit. The contract went to United States Antimony Corporation because United States Antimony Corporation operates the only two antimony smelters in North America.
There are no others.
Read that again. The United States of America, which spends more on defense than the next ten nations combined, which maintains eleven carrier strike groups and 750 military bases across 80 countries, which projects power into every corner of the globe, cannot refine antimony without the facilities of a single company headquartered in Thompson Falls, Montana, population 1,319.
The strategic implications of this fact are so severe that they border on the classified. Antimony trisulfide is not optional for ammunition. It is not a performance enhancement that marginally improves reliability. It is the friction-sensitive compound that ignites when a firing pin strikes a primer. Without antimony, bullets do not fire. Artillery shells do not detonate. The primers in over 300 types of American munitions, from 5.56mm rifle rounds to 155mm howitzer shells, require this specific metalloid with this specific chemistry."
https://substack.com/home/post/p-182567987
33. "This year has been a "new dawn in defense stocks,” said James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management. "Defense was defensive for a long time, and that’s still true to some degree, but it is taking a new turn.”
The upshot is that it’s been a good year to be an investor in military contractors and their suppliers. The S&P 1500 Aerospace and Defense group, home to 24 companies, is on its way to a 41% jump, the most since 2013, lifted also by strength in the commercial aerospace sector. That’s more than double the S&P 500’s advance, and some 16 percentage points ahead of the fabled Magnificent Seven tech behemoths."
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/12/21/markets/defense-stocks-growth/
34. Inflation is coming bigly. A good global macro discussion to help position for 2026. Commodities: metals, oil, uranium and energy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlLfuJc1e_Q
35. Interesting takes on AI Agents for 2026.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULszsXDyjMY&t=20s
36. From builder to investor. A fun conversation here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDCWJHzzLIc
37. Some great forecasts for AI going into 2026 from A16Z.
Mobland
A London Gangster series and damn is it good. Great story & drama, with incredible characters and actors playing them. Of course this is directed by the excellent Guy Ritchie which explains the smart & cheeky dialogue. It’s a story about a London crime family, with Pierce Brosnan as the head of the family, Conrad Harrigan. Helen Mirren as his wife. Tom Hardy as his trusted lieutenant and fixer, Harry. A story leading up to an emerging war with rival crime family the Stevensons.
Harry is calm, cool and effective. Tough as hell. The man you can rely on and send to fix hard problems. A true professional. Everything I have worked so hard to be, despite my incredible temper and rage. Harry is what every young male should aspire to be like minus the criminal career of course. He is taught to be very thorough: “dot the I’s and cross the t’s.”
Conrad is wise and his observations of the world are keen. That is why he is the big boss.
On human organizations he uses a story before he purged his own syndicate.
“It’s always the same in any orchard. You plant the trees. The trees grow tall. Then, sooner or later, they begin to get mangled, and before you know it, the apples begin to rot. And that, Harry, my son, is pruning time.”
I’ve seen this play out in far too many organizations especially in Silicon Valley, startups that grow to big companies but they hire crappy people and the companies deteriorate at least until the crap people are removed. I see far too little pruning and that is why most companies in general suck.
He gets the importance of respect:
“A man disrespects you, you take care of it. That’s the Harrigan way.”
He understands grudges: “I hate you with every bone in my body, I wish you and yours nothing but ill will. You think I am going to stand there and let Richie Stevenson mouth me off with my son standing there. I’m Conrad the Dread “100 Fu—ing Guns” Harrigan! I want peace. But if Richie Stevenson disrespects me like that, I’ll push the f—ing button.”
He makes the hard decisions and is ruthless when executing them:
“We’re at war. We’re gonna take those fuc-ers out one by one. Their friends, their families. We’re going to cut off the Stevensons empire and we will bleed Richie White.”
Conrad’s has interesting views on human nature:
“A man sees a way to f—k you over, Fair play.
It’s human nature and there’s no mercy in nature. That’s what I love about it. If I am bigger than you, stronger than you, I’ll eat you. Or I’ll f—k you and then eat you. But go behind my back? I get it. Hmmm, I get it. I’ll put a bullet in your heart and I won’t blame you.”
I really hate to admit it but he is absolutely correct. Nature is brutal. And the world is brutal, reverting back to what it used to be. It’s a dog eat dog world now. Maybe it always was.
“We’re all monsters.” We just refused to see and admit it.
It’s a series really worth watching. Highly entertaining. And you may even learn something along the way. Gangster life is one of the most extreme edges of society.
Desire: the Carl Craig Story
Detroit and techno. I bet most people don’t know that the birthplace of techno was actually in Detroit and the man most responsible for this was DJ and producer Carl Craig. A living legend in the techno music world.
I learned this on the documentary “Desire”, both a story of his career and a homage to Detroit, his hometown. Full of haunting images of large scale derelict buildings and ruins. Relics from Detroit's past prosperity and glory as the center of America’s automotive and industrial might.
“I’ve always loved melancholic music, and Detroit techno is melancholic. It is an improbable city, but that is the DNA of the music.”
But it was clear Craig was influenced by many types of music from heavy metal, to jazz, to classic Americana like Mitch Miller’s “Yellow Rose of Texas”. His sister said: “We grew up with so much music in our house that it’s almost inevitable that one of us was going to do something more creative than anybody else.” Which shows you the powerful influence your environment really is.
“Detroit is where techno came from.”
He took samples from everywhere. Mechanical machine sounds and obscure British bands. Enough so that he even went to London which was an even bigger influence on him and his music.
“It’s kind of like going to Evian and seeing “oh, this is where the water comes from. This is where a Guy called Gerald comes from, S’express, Baby Ford, you know, Frankie Goes to Hollywood. All this stuff that we were listening to, I was there. I was meeting these people. This was really what made me, like, super excited about it composing and being in the scene.” Techno was taking off in the UK at that time.
What made the Detroit scene work was being around other DJs & producers. “There was real camaraderie but it was also like kind of vicious competition as well.” Feels a lot like Silicon Valley and what I imagined Wall Street was like before it industrialized and scaled. Find your scene, this is what will propel you in life.
“I feel like that mentorship/sharing what you know with others makes the community stronger and more unique. Because we do share and because we care about the betterment of the next artist and the next guy.”
Carl also exemplified the power of imagination. “Because of the time that I grew up here, all the abandoned buildings and abandoned factories, it really gave me the freedom to fantasize what it would look like if we didn’t have buildings that were abandoned and look blown out. Detroit is very conducive for using imagination to build new pieces of art. I think the possibilities are endless to what you can dream up to fit into this lost metropolis.”
“Blade runner was the movie that was saying what the future was for us. As inspiration we would watch Blade Runner and listen to the Vangelis soundtrack…” They read graphic novels and watched Blaxploitation shows like Shack. “So we were building, or at least I was building a new world for myself musically, that would potentially, elevate my experiences, my American experiences.” You literally are what you consume media wise.
His famous track is desire. “When I talk about desire, I talk about my desire wasn’t just about girls. My desire was about doing what I was doing today. My desire was to get out of my parents basement and being to make music all the time. My life is making music.” His wife said: “The best way of all his music is Desire. This hunger, this joy, this happiness, this love, this beauty, it’s just….that's Carl Craig to me.” Desire, maybe the better term is drive. No one gets anywhere in life without, let alone to the top.
Thankfully Detroit is back on the rise as America reindustrializes. I can attest, having been there twice in the last year. You can feel they are getting their mojo back…..
This documentary is a great watch to show the incredible world wide cultural influence of the city and the music it spawned. “You can’t move any genre forward unless you understand where the genre came from.” A fellow DJ said of him: “his influence and desire to step outside of what other people on our genre are doing, nobody can compare to him. And 30 something years later, he is still pushing boundaries.”
There is a lesson here: take in everything you see, learn and experience, mix it into your work and life. As Carl said: “How I’ve been able to move musically over the years, is I take my influences and put it into music.
“I’m a specialist at what I do and if I don’t do it, what am I a specialist in? So I have to pursue my craft. And my craft is something that not only feeds my family, but it feeds my emotions and feeds me as an artist.”
Troy: Making History
What a classic Hollywood movie. Based on the old Greek legend of the war between the Greeks and Troy, they truly don’t make movies like this anymore. Starring Hollywood legends like Brad Pitt, Sean Bean, Orlando Bloom, Diana Kruger & Eric Bana, this movie is epic with incredible sword fights and large scale mass battles. An incredibly fit Brad Pitt does a great job playing super warrior Achilles.
“We don’t need to control him, we need to unleash him. That man was born to end lives.”
And there are so many, now iconic quotes & conversations from the movie. Especially from Achilles:
“The gods envy us. They envy us because we’re mortal. Because any moment might be our last. Everything’s more beautiful because we’re doomed. You will never be lovelier than you are now. We will never be here again.”
“Imagine a king who fights his own battles. Wouldn’t that be a sight?”
“There are no pacts between lions and men.”
“Before my time is done, I will look down on your corpse and smile.”
And he is inspiring, especially before a battle:
“Let no man forget who we are. We are lions! Do you know what’s there, waiting, beyond that beach? Immortality! Take it, it’s yours!”
Why are all men driven by the eternal search for glory?
Achilles: “They’ll be talking about this war for a thousand years.”
Hector: “In a thousand years, the dust from our bones will be gone.”
Achilles: “Yes, Prince. But our names will remain.”
However there are plenty of truths and lessons too.
“You don’t fear anyone, that’s your problem. Fear is useful.”
“Women have a way of complicating things.”
“War is young men dying and old men talking.”
“History remembers kings, not soldiers.”
We see first hand that war is ugly and horrible. And it is something to be avoided where possible.
“Oh, that sounds heroic to you, doesn’t it? To die fighting. Tell me, little brother, have you ever killed a man? Ever see a man die in combat? I’ve killed men, and I’ve heard them dying, I’ve watched them dying and there is nothing glorious about it. Nothing poetic. You say you want to die for love but you know nothing about dying, and you know nothing about love.”
You only fight for the right reasons and when it’s hoisted on you. The Trojan hero says: “All my life, I’ve lived by a code. And the code is simple, honor the gods, love your woman & defend your country. Troy is mother to us all, fight for her.”
King Priam said: “I’ve fought many wars in my time. Some were fought for land, some for power, some for glory. I suppose fighting for love makes more sense than all the rest.”
Yet there are the hard eternal truths that we can’t escape. Timely truths as we enter the second half of the raging 2020s. “Peace is for the women and the weak. Empires are forged by war.”
We have entered a new world now of spheres of influence. Take heed of these words: “The gods protect only the strong.”
And live a grandly interesting life. “If they ever tell my story, let them say that I walked with giants. Men rise and fall like the winter wheat but these names will never die.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 8th, 2026
"Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths." – Arnold Schwarzenegger
"If vast parts of the market are soaked up by consensus capital - where do heretics go? Now is a good time to define what I mean by heretics in this context. I would describe them as people who prioritise first-principles over playbooks, accept delayed validation and higher variance to unlock non-obvious breakthroughs." https://svrgn.substack.com/p/heresy-and-the-venture-industrial
2. Educated intuition. A masterclass in investing. Learned about the really unique culture and start of General Atlantic. A top tier PE firm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a34VyGpf8s4
3. "It’s likely part of the reason that almost 40% of Americans over 50 largely view the economy as “getting better” while most Americans between 18 and 49 say the economy as “getting worse”. It’s two different economies. Older people are more insulated from AI and the housing shock. Young people are staring down the barrel.
For 70 really bizarre and unusual years, America ran on a simple contract: deliver growth, and people will tolerate the rest. But on the most consistent things I hear from people across age, geography, and income from my 40 weeks on the road this year is that the basic arc of life has stopped making sense. This is anecdote, sure, but it’s what people stop to talk to me about. Their concerns. Their worries, not only about their own finances, but also about the broad future.
So what do people do? AI is taking the jobs, policies are increasingly designed around the older population, and everything seems murky. How does one move forward?
Gamble?"
https://kyla.substack.com/p/everyone-is-gambling-and-no-one-is
4. Lots of good takes on the edge of the internet and latest creative business news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0w5NomdEGI&t=39s
5. A grim discussion, if you use the lens of energy, the geopolitical world becomes clearer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2e6N9C1ubs
6. An on the ground view of Ukraine, its tough right now but it’s nowhere close to being over for Ukrainians. They are a tough and resilient people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wq8a45JinKY
7. A masterclass in how to run a venture fund. An insight dense conversation with the new leadership of Sequoia Capital. You will understand why they are considered the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fq33ylz7IMc&t=902s
8. "Most importantly, although it is sometimes forgotten, the second key technology, in addition to gunpowder, was ability to build sailing ships capable of navigating to the far ends of the world. Whereas horse-riding revolution had a continental effect, the “gunboat” revolution had global consequences.
It is actually remarkable how many parallels exist between the two military revolutions. Whereas Steppe-dwellers rode horses and shot arrows, the Europeans rode ships and shot guns. Each group enjoyed huge preponderance of military power over other societies, especially initially, before those could adapt to new challenges. Finally, and most importantly, both groups had a huge effect on state-building and imperiogenesis."
https://peterturchin.substack.com/p/from-steppe-frontiers-to-gunboat
9. Wide ranging conversation on how to thrive in exponential age: AI & longevity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPp0FZ-spKk&t=5s
10. Learning about Growth stage investing. It's a pretty instructive conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZB-0TVRsO8
11. Disagree with authors conclusions but good points raised.
"In fact, the military planner must seriously consider the possibility that the US may lose access to all factories in Asia on the very first day of the conflict. China has the capabilities and faces very strong incentives for a splendid first-strike that pushes US forces as far away from its shores as possible, and to attack the military assets of its regional rivals. Factories in Taiwan, Korea and Japan can at best be considered add-ons by our military planner: their expected survival rates are too low for the planner to rely on them in any meaningful way.
The problem of the vulnerability of American regional partners is only the most serious manifestation of a far more general problem: under certain conditions, the effective war-fighting capability of a coalition may be less than the sum of its parts.
Consider the possibility of sourcing war materials from Scandinavia, say iron ore. In World War II, the Germans preempted the Allies and occupied Denmark and Norway. The Allies attempt to beat back the Germans failed, and for the duration of the war, Scandinavia’s resources were at the disposal of the Germans."
https://policytensor.substack.com/p/on-the-strategy-of-coalition-warfare
12. America's conundrum, keep the USD & bond market strong or build out an electrical grid, new raw materials supply chain & reindustrialize. We have to make a hard choice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqtalk5v4ts&t=4s
13. From one year before, a strong bear case on China. China is a cipher so it's hard to tell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL6OHMr21f8&t=8s
14. An inside look and conversation at Anduril HQ.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBXXYpjs9TE
15. The American Midwest is well positioned for the future. Especially in the AI world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NC9mrtfdXE
16. Educational conversation on the art of growth stage investing from A16Z. Will listen to this many times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxoGRY6TXwk
17. "Because the game changed, and assumptions broke down. Foresight driven analysis starts with “What does the military assume will remain true”. Then ask “what technology makes this assumption false at scale?”. Similiar to traditional financial markets, this is your undervalued asset and subsequent market opportunity… a military addressable market before requirements exist.
And defense founders/investors can help shape the noise here with the military before turning it into a strong signal through contracts and official requirements. Those undervalued markets can help shape requirements. This can contribute to a newer defense tech company’s moat as part of it’s long term business strategy.
Military foresight is a demand-signal amplifier, with a low signal to noise threshold. It doesn’t tell you what contracts you can win next year - but it will tell you what assumptions stressed to their limit will break… and where the opportunity opens. This is typical operating procedure for deep tech investors with long time horizons. Founders that align assumption failure to build companies are seemingly ahead of their time, yet obvious in hindsight. Such is human nature as Nassim Taleb identified in The Black Swan.
Defense markets can be extremely noisy nowadays (which is fantastic and should be). Endless pitches and demos. But one important question to always consider - does this thing matter after we make first contact with the enemy? Otherwise, we’re continuing a peacetime optimization."
https://abovethenoisefloor.substack.com/p/the-military-black-swan
18. "We mistake consumption for curation. We look at the highly visible luxury the logo, the exotic travel, the latest drop and believe that acquiring these things is the path to the elevated life. But this creates a new kind of friction: the logistical weight of maintenance, the emotional burden of status defense, and the time debt of earning it all back. The aspiring curator eventually finds their life less curated and more cluttered. They are a high-end consumer, not a quiet operator."
https://luxlifestylelab.substack.com/p/the-bespoke-suit-principl
19. "Slop is a byproduct of this overall process, the detritus that accompanies greatly expanded production. Slop is at best annoying and frustrating, and at worst a tool for scams or propaganda. But the overall process will, I believe, usher in a golden age of creativity and experimentation."
https://newsletter.rootsofprogress.org/p/in-defense-of-slop
20. One of the better conversations on how to run a top tier venture capital firm. This was excellent. A deep dive into Greylock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdk8UXqW2AE
21. "It’s perfectly fine to celebrate. This can be a party, slightly nicer vacation or one time experience (floor seats to the Knicks). However. If you’re upgrading everything, you’re actually doing the opposite of what a rich person does. People who get rich and stay rich have control of their emotions. They don’t cash them in.
If you find yourself upgrading every part of your life? This is no different than therapy sessions. Masking the insecurity with random goods that no one cares about.
The worst part? Your first upgrade actually creates the need for *more* upgrades. We’ve done it. We’re sure you’ve done it. You buy one crazy item (car, watch etc.) and suddenly you can’t eat at the same place or wear the same clothing. Activation of lifestyle creep is dangerous."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/stay-rich-by-killing-the-ego-you
22. A dangerous future coming. Understanding China's ideology and history.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CECgf6__08
23. Such a great discussion on how to build a great crossover investment firm. Lots of great nuggets of investing across different industries.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plx6Foxoam4&t=2s
24. Gavekal is a China bull. In his view China is well positioned for the future due to their new electrical grid, manufacturing power & large pool of educated workers. A ferocious competitor for the political West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuJxZ67PwNk
25. Lots of great career and life advice. Do I want to do this for the rest of my life?
This was an excellent interview and every young person and old person should watch this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjSesMsQTxk
26. "The alternative narrative is fundamentally direct-to-consumer. Just like brands that skip traditional distribution, ideas now bypass institutions entirely.
Everyone from Alex Karp to Zohran Mamdani to President Trump operates on this wavelength:
I don’t want to hear from your corporation or your party. I want to hear directly from you.
Institutional filtering is now an anti-signal. How many corporate X accounts are you following and taking seriously?"
https://qy.co/writings/newqasar/
27. "In most historical cases, governments preparing for war begin by organizing their societies, shaping expectations, and building resilience before mobilizing resources. Europe is doing something different, something I find strange since it is rebuilding armies and supply chains while leaving the public in a peacetime mindset.
This unreadiness, at least to me, seems to be structural. For thirty years, the continent lived under the assumption that peace was permanent, that security was an ambient condition rather than a responsibility. Welfare systems expanded. Defense budgets shrank. Citizens came to view protection as a function of the social contract rather than of military capacity. Entire generations were raised to believe that war was something Europe had outgrown.
That world is gone."
https://www.zinebriboua.com/p/europe-militarization-without-the
28. "Putin cannot easily end the war because peace threatens him personally. Russia cannot afford to continue the war because it threatens the state itself.
This is the Putin Paradox: the longer the war goes on, the safer Putin may be in the short term—and the weaker Russia becomes in the long term. The interests of ruler and country have diverged so sharply that policy has become a hostage to regime survival.
History suggests such gaps do not close gently. And Christmas 1989 stays on Putin’s mind."
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/the-putin-paradox
29. This was incredibly insightful. Not the nicest human being but a brilliant operator and incredible investor. I always learn from listening to his talks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3-ziJ8V3mY
30. One of the best weekly conversations on tech, crypto and creative businesses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcYIOFNThgU&t=2s
31. Another incredible discussion this week on VC, B2B & AI this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZ5ubHIn4fA
32. Illuminating conversation with Trae Stephens of Anduril. The Factory is the weapon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Fdq1TShG2w
33. A Global macro update from Raoul Pal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDQ1x_xitWQ
34. One of the biggest issues facing America right now: The defense industrial base is in bad shape.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1X46icwOJo&t=102s
35. Learning about General Catalyst's various business lines. Really interesting strategy for their AI-driven roll up business.